BC, hype, presales, supply

Sold out in Burnaby 2015

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96 Comments

Despite the soft market and falling sales another lower mainland pre-sales project has sold out.

..or at least the first phase has.

Station Square at Metrotown says they have sold out their first tower which will be 35 storeys and completed in 2015.

The other towers could reach 57 storeys and are planned to be completed by 2020.

Burnaby Mayor Derek Corrigan notes the city is in transition. There are plans to add 11 residential towers at Brentwood Town Centre, and two of them could reach 70 storeys.

“It’s changing us from a bedroom community to the centre of the region,” Corrigan said.

He added that it is key is to develop the condos along existing transit hubs.

“There aren’t many choices. Either we can develop the agricultural land and the park land that is so important to our region, or we can go up. We can develop more density around stations,” Corrigan said.

In March, hundreds of people lined up for the chance to buy condos at Marine Drive and Cambie Street in Vancouver.

“Last year we had a very strong market where you had numerous projects that were achieving really strong presales right off the bat,” said Michael Ferreira of Urban Analytics.

Demand has decreased since then, but despite that all 269 units were sold Saturday.

Greg Zayadi of Anthem Properties Group said the buyers were people who will keep the condos for a long time.

“It’s not the investor of old that thinks the market is going to go up another ten or 15 per cent and selling it at the end of the day. They’ll be retaining this unit for a long time to come,” he said.

Read the full article over at CTV news.

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Brian

So one presale sells out and everyone is talking about as if RE is making a comeback. What about all the other developments that haven’t sold out? mandarin in Richmond, my own townhouse complex in oakridge near the Canada line, and countless others.

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Anonymous

@left already: “amazing pics…”

Great to know that there are still good jobs out there.

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SunBlaster

Thanks jesse that was very informative.

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jesse

@More Data Please: “Because of fractional reserve lending, the 10% really bites banks hard.”

They don’t need to 100% provision for the full 10%.

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Patient Renter

@jesse: … bridge to nowhere …

This is the one that goes across the parking lot, across the street, and into Best Buy? I always wondered what the hell it was for.

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More Data Please

@jesse: re: “…provision for counterparty risk (i.e. the private insurer defaulting), often by retaining capital, and that reduces the amount of capital they can lend out. Banks don’t like doing this…”

Thank you for putting that part in. Because of fractional reserve lending, the 10% really bites banks hard. They would rather have CMHC insurance and lend the full 9x reserve multiple of that 10% money to a another customer.

So yes, on the face of it the government backstops 90% of NHA loan counterparty default no matter what.

However, the effect of the bank possibly losing that 10% is a risk, in effect, nearly equal to the entire loan value (9×10%=90%) in lendable capital!

In contrast, CMHC’s 100% backing does not create the same incentive for prudent lending by the bank. Big difference.

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N

@Anonymous:

Your situation may be totally different, but my landlady announced that she was selling our place last year, then I offered her more money and she changed her mind. It wasn’t a poly on her part. She just couldn’t make the numbers work out and had never thought about raising the rent. (She also refinanced, so as to lower her monthly payments.)

It is possible that your landlady would find an arrangement other than selling to be better, if she was getting more rent. When you take the cost of moving and divide it by 12, its not an insignificant bump in the rent.

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jesse

@SunBlaster: “Can anyone confirm Genworth is 90% backed by government? They are a publicly funded after all, why would there be any gov backstopping?” Private mortage insurers are 90% backed by the government. The government backs counterparty failure, not the loans. The way it works is if MIC or whoever goes bankrupt and can no longer service insurance claims, the government will transfer all insurance policies to its own books, another insurer, or CMHC’s, but only at 90% of par. That means that 10% of the value of the policies become uninsured. Say you’re a bank and have a $300K insurance policy on a mortgage with MIC. MIC folds and the government takes over the insurance policy. You now have a $270K policy. If the loan defaults you file a claim with the government and get $270K. You have to… Read more »

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jesse

@midnite toker1: Here is the (now) completed bridge. The infrastructure for the bridge was there for about 10 years previous, completed all the way to Kingsway from the mall, but for some reason the developer on the other side of the road, or the city, decided the bridge could not be completed. I forget the details — I’ve heard several versions of the story — but they built the thing and it stood there for a long time before someone rammed its completion through. I don’t know how often the bridge is used.

But THIS time they’ll get it right I’m sure!

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painted turtle

I could not understand how a piece of junk could be on the market for 1.2 million…

Well, I know now: address is 888 W 19TH AV

If a superstitious person is ready to let go several 100K for the triple 8, good for them 😉
May be we could use this sale to test how many HAM are left in the market!

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SunBlaster

Can anyone confirm Genworth is 90% backed by government? They are a publicly funded after all, why would there be any gov backstopping?

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Anonymous

@Anonymous: Boohoo! So sad.

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Patiently Waiting

@kenny: Think of what happened in 2001, when another party, the NDP, was reduced to two seats. Same kind of scenario.

I think the only reason the Liberals are postponing the election is to make sure they (along with Harper) can sell our province’s resources off before they get the boot. It will be interesting to see what the NDP tries to do about it once they actually get elected. If Heyman winning the nomination says anything, they might take a hardline and we may enter into some real heated politics.

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mac

Sad news about my associate who recently bought a million bucks worth of real estate–the dream home if you will–only to lose the job he’s had for two decades within the year. Unfortunately, an extension of work didn’t work out and now the options are limited to finding a job in this city or sell and downsize. In my opinion, he had a top salary in a career that’s seeing diminishing returns. And he’s approaching 50. He must be going through hell but how can any “job” float a million bucks worth of real estate? We’ll have to wait and see. Maybe a government job will come around with six weeks holiday and a matching RRSP.

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midnite toker1

@jesse: tell us more about this “bridge to nowhere”.

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ScubaSteve

@G:
Listing numbers are down compare to 2010, 2011.

Eventually people give up…

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VHB

Total days 22 Days elapsed so far 15 Weekends / holidays 7 Days missing 0 Days remaining 7 7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales 81 7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings 182 SALES Sales so far 1346 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 567 Projected month end total 1913 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 3306 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1273 Projected month end total 4579 Sell-list so far 40.7% Projected month-end sell-list 41.8% MONTHS OF INVENTORY Inventory as of October 22, 2012 18943 Current MoI at this sales pace 9.90 Monthly norms for October: year sell list sell/list 2001 2379 3086 77.1% 2002 2866 3535 81.1% 2003 3765 4200 89.6% 2004 2735 3703 73.9% 2005 3099 4041 76.7% 2006 2722 4862 56.0% 2007 3028 4819 62.8% 2008 1364 4867 28.0% 2009 3704 4977 74.4%… Read more »

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Devore

@Anonymous: Sounds like a pyramid scheme.

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kenny

How many seats will the B.C. Liberals (in-name only) still hold after the next election?

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kenny

“The four projects could create an estimated 480 to 800 full-time mining jobs for Canadians. Canadians “just don’t have the experience” operating the equipment needed to safely extract coal in underground mines, said John Cavanagh, chief executive of Vancouver-based Canadian Dehua International Mines Group Inc., a company founded by China-born Vancouver businessman Naishun Liu. “Without the Chinese and the technology they’re bringing … these particular mines would not have been developed.” — snip — Stephen Hunt, western director for the United Steelworkers union, ridiculed Tuesday the suggestion Canadians couldn’t be trained to work underground. “Bullshit,” he said of Cavanagh’s assertions. “That’s just a cop-out, a way to bring in guest workers who are going to go into a camp, contribute virtually nothing to the economy, and then when they’re done they’ll be sent back to China,” he said. Citizenship and… Read more »

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More Data Please

@vangrl: re: “… post dated cheques in no way implies a lease …” There is the well defined legal concept of oral agreement. A witness privy to the original offer to rent and the handing over of said cheques would be powerful evidence to appeal, for example, an early rental increase. http://www.cba.org/bc/public_media/credit/258.aspx The law also provides a 2 month owner use clause which can terminate the tenancy at any time for a VALID AND TRUTHFUL REASON under the Residential Tenancy Act. See definitions below. Per BC Residential Tenancy Act form RTB-32. REASONS FOR THIS 2 MONTH NOTICE TO END THE TENANCY (put an “x” in all the boxes that apply) The rental unit will be occupied by the landlord or the landlord’s spouse or a close family member (father, mother, or child) of the landlord or the landlord’s spouse A… Read more »

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Bo Xilai

@Ted:

Launch Party at the Met… Sorry it was Miami 2005…

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/23/national/23condo.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all&

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Bo Xilai

@Ted:

Launch party at the Met…

Looks like what they were doing for Miami condos in 2007… Very good sign for Vancouver real estate bears… Consider it the breaking of the 7th seal from the Apocalypse.

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G

@ScubaSteve:

Listing numbers are down compare to 2010, 2011.

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