Canada, data, debt, economy

Trade deficit at record levels

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Patriotz pointed out this article at the CBC: Canadas trade deficit has grown to the largest level ever, and this at a time when oil and commodity prices are high.

The gap between what Canada sells to the world and what it buys from other countries expanded to the largest point on record in July, as its trade deficit expanded to an all-time high of $2.3 billion.

Exports fell 3.4 per cent during the month, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday. That was more than the corresponding decline in imports, which were down 2.2 per cent.

Exports of energy products fell 8.5 per cent to $8.2 billion for the month, the data agency reported, while exports of automotive products dropped 5.3 per cent to $5.9 billion.

“This is about as bad as it gets for Canadian exporters, at least so far,” Scotiabank economist Derek Holt said in a note following the release of the data. “[And] the details are worse.”

Read the full article here.

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C.Junta

@Just Looking:
Just Looking, there is no offtopic on free-for-all Fridays. Thanks a lot for sharing this!

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Patiently Waiting

@Just Looking: I’ll be responding in the next thread, Friday Free For All.

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YLTNboomerang

@Anonymous: Hmm, renting the place out “per night” like a hotel eh? Send a notice to the building managers if you see this, the other owners will appreciate it as in almost every building downtown this is explicitly against the rules. The reason this is against the rules is to maintain the security of the residences, the buildings liability coverage, and my favourite…to limit prostitution.

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Just Looking

@ Patiently Waiting “Is it the lack of decent jobs for graduates? I’d have a hard time getting motivated too if I graduated with a $60K debt and a job making coffee at Starbucks.” Okay – so this takes me totally off topic – stop reading now if you don’t want insight into the current status of university grads. There’s actually very good data collected by the province: http://outcomes.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/BGS/ReportsbyProgramArea.aspx You can finally compare Philosophy grads to biology grads and UBC grads to SFU grads to see just how much the extra prestige of UBC gets the average grad (hint: it’s not much). Careful that you look at the sample sizes, though – some are too small to make the stats meaningful. For ‘generic’ degrees (the ones most commonly associated with ‘barista’: BA’s and BSc’s. This is a 2-year out survey… Read more »

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VHB

@YVR2ZRH: Here it is:

year	sell	list	sell/list
2001	2379	3086	77.1%
2002	2866	3535	81.1%
2003	3765	4200	89.6%
2004	2735	3703	73.9%
2005	3099	4041	76.7%
2006	2722	4862	56.0%
2007	3028	4819	62.8%
2008	1364	4867	28.0%
2009	3704	4977	74.4%
2010	2337	3698	63.2%
2011	2314	4364	53.0%
Mean	2756	4196	65.7%
median	2735	4200	74.1%
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Anonymous

@More Data Please: “Who these tenants are would go a long way to understanding why there is “condo hotel” phenomenon at all.”

I think a lot of these place are peoples homes who are stretched so thin they are renting them out for a month here and there when they can. I have a friend who does this. He did it during the Olympics and now the rental company keeps his place listed continuously. Every few months someone rents it for a month and he stays with relatives or goes on vacation.

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Bo Xilai

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:

“The Jeffersons, Seinfeld, and Friends also rented.”

Sanford and Son owned their own junk yard and lived there too.

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YVR2ZRH

Going along the lines of my previous post. The 2 lowest priced sales in Vancouver today were for a renovated home in Dunbar and a view lot in Point Grey. Both sold for 10% below assessed. This is not typical of view lots as these tend to have intangible value which does not 100% get captured in the price. Note that on the view lot asking was $1.92 and sold was $1.65.

This is what we see every day . . every day the bar is lowered just a little bit. We only need to get 0.5% – 1% per month for this thing to really adjust properly over 36 months!!!!

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YVR2ZRH

Very sorry for the request. However- – have we already had posted the sale / list numbers for October in the past 12 years? I don’t remember who posts it but it shows up the beginning of every month and I have not seen it yet. . . A repost would be very helpful.

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market stats

larry must be inundated with listings though the $8.5 tudor mansion has not moved all year

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bubbly

@vangrl: “The CMHC should have never existed in the first place.”

Nice to see that this is getting so many upvotes. When I wrote something similar in the past, some idiot called me “paultard”

CMHC should be abolished.

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Anonymous

@More Data Please: They weren’t renting them as standard condos so they decided to make them “hotel” condos to capture the masses of tourists….You same the same ones listed constantly.

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More Data Please

@Anonymous 56: re: “…rentals research…condos as “hotels”…”

Vancouver condo “hotels” is an interesting subject.

If you find a way to filter your searches based on short/long term lease, please post your observations. The keyword “furnished” sometimes works, but not always.

Exact keywords which capture a greater majority of the “hotel” listings may provide insight on the question of what sort of tenants are creating persistent demand for short term suites in a city with scarce world class attractions and plenty of conventional hotel rooms.

Some ideas: mining/exploration executives, idle wealthy hedonists who rotate their venue among major cities, immigrant applicants, … etc?

Who these tenants are would go a long way to understanding why there is “condo hotel” phenomenon at all.

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jay

@Looking Now:

You mean this site? He wrote something on Oct. 1st:

http://www.yattermatters.com/

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Jennette Mclandon

I WOULD NOT HAVE SEX IN MOST OF THE CRACK SHACKS IN VANCOUVER – THEY ARE SO GHETTO!

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Looking Now

Looks like Larry Yattermatters is finished?

no action at all at his site. dead as a doornail.

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Arthur Fonzarelli

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 11th, 2012 at 7:34 pm
The Jeffersons, Seinfeld, and Friends also rented.

Yeah but Cosby never rented. I remember an episode where his daughter was about to marry a janitor, and Bill was all appalled about the prospect, outraged and indignant if you will, then upon learning that his prospective son-in-law was a HOMEOWNER, well Bill offered him up an extra piece of pie… just a television show but probably one of the most influential in 1980s North America.

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Anonymous

As someone who is moving to Vancouver, I can tell you from my rentals research the asking rents are all over the place. It’s also amazing how many owners are trying to treat their condos like “hotels”, pricing them per night etc…Lots and lots out there. It’s hard get through it all.

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joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs

The Jeffersons, Seinfeld, and Friends also rented.

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VHB
Total days	22
Days elapsed so far	8
Weekends / holidays	3
Days missing	0
Days remaining	14
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	89
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	244
SALES	
Sales so far	741
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1250
Projected month end total	1991
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	2008
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	3413
Projected month end total	5421
Sell-list so far	36.9%
Projected month-end sell-list	36.7%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of October 11, 2012	19061
Current MoI at this sales pace	9.58
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joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs

Renters haven’t always been the social outcasts they are today. In the past, renters almost dominated the television airwaves.

Think about all the well-known TV sitcoms that revolved around renters: I Love Lucy, The Honeymooners, Three’s Company, Laverne & Shirley, Mork & Mindy, Good Times, Perfect Strangers, Ellen…

Contrast this to more recent TV like Desperate Housewives. When Susan Delfino rents out her house on Wisteria Lane and moves into a rental herself it is portrayed as a serious step down in status.

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Anonymous

@ReadyToPop: “In my opinion, the 25 year limit is not the problem….the absence of it was. The inflated overhang from which is why first-time buyers face higher payments until the overall market adjusts.”

That might work for realtors who only care about the number of transactions, but home builders care more about the selling price. Any amount the extra max amortization adds to home values goes directly to home builders bottom line.

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YLTNboomerang

@Lurker: Just wait a year or two when the bank of Mom and Dad is in default due to all their HELOC spending!

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Dog

This ain’t lookin good. Listings failing to gain over 19k, solid sales numbers, and firm prices 🙁

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paulb

New Listings 200
Price Changes 133
Sold Listings 92
TI:19061

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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