Vancouver prices now lower than 2011

If you bought property in Vancouver BC last year and were planning on flipping it this year for a profit, well…

Better luck next year.

Teranet has released their stats for September 2012. Prices are dropping across Canada, but still up Year over year.

This is not so in Vancouver, where prices dropped by 1.2% for the second month in a row, bringing Month over Month (MOM), Year over Year (YOY) and Year to Date (YTD) measures all negative according to Real Professional:

% change y/y: -1.42%
% change m/m: -1.19%
Year to date: -0.60%

The only market that saw a larger monthly drop in the Teranet Home Price Index was Victoria which saw a 1.3% drop.  Together Vancouver and Victoria continue to drag down the national index.

 

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Aleksey
Guest
Aleksey

That’s a positive news with some negative numbers. Way to go, Vancouver!

Veni Vidi Vci
Guest
Veni Vidi Vci

Hey good news!

Each 1% drop in the price of an average vancouver house improves affordability by about $10,000.

The last two months drop have paid for my years rent on an average house here!

jesse
Member
This time last year prices were slightly weak. The HPI for September-December was 170.71, 170.15, 169.81, 169.29. That means to get increasing YOY drops the prices this year need to be dropping faster than they were last year (which they are). The Teranet HPI lags for a few reasons. Sales and inventory give us a very good view into the future movements of Teranet. The most significant result is 3 months into the future. You can see the “predicted” half-on-half price changes here. This model is forecasting prices to be about 5% off their June peaks by the end of the year, however the most recent data are trending lower than the model. Given current MOI and sales volumes I expect further price deterioration into January and February. My call has been for -6% to -4% YOY in late winter.… Read more »
patriotz
Member

Ottawa’s long-term debt plans shelved

The Conservative government no longer has targets for erasing Canada’s federal debt, which grew by $125-billion since the recession.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty confirmed Wednesday that the recession has derailed Ottawa’s long-term debt plans and new targets won’t be set until the government starts posting yearly surpluses again – which is not forecast to happen for three more years.

Maybe the real problem is an upcoming recession caused by a nationwide RE bust? And CMHC debt guarantees turning into debt?

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

1.4% down. Tell me bears, was it worth the wait? Did putting your life in park for 6 years pay off?

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@Veni Vidi Vci: but if You bought a house six years ago and spent your time flipping presales you could retire now.

But what do I know? I don’t get up votes for posting textbook economics on a blog no one has ever heard of.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Bull! Bull! Bull!: Are you feeling nervous these days?

Bailing in BC
Guest
Bailing in BC

@Bull! Bull! Bull!:

Yes, but if you spend the next six years flipping presales will you be able to retire in 2018? That is the question.

More Data Please
Guest
More Data Please

@Veni Vidi Vci: “…two months drop have paid for my years rent…”

Your astute remark sums up the facts of this trade nicely. Bull3’s mythical “retired flipper” assertion depends critically on actually realizing the profits on the speculative properties in question.

Evidence suggest that most people won’t realize any profit and have no realistic plan to realize speculative profit before they go bankrupt. If profits where realized on the whole, prices would go nowhere. It’s a zero sum gain. Money comes out of the accounts of those who don’t sell. If everybody sells, then there can be no profit on price changes.

Bull3’s two comments in a row speaks volumes about the present reality crashing onto his head like a ton of bricks!

boogeybear
Guest
boogeybear

The problem with flipping houses that you live in, is that you are buying and selling homes in the same market. When the housing market corrects, you will loose a lot of what you have gained on the value of that last home. I know one person that has bought and sold 7 houses in the last 14 years. The home he has now was bought for cash at $815,000. Sounds great, but the market still hasn’t corrected. It isn’t that they haven’t done well, it’s just that they have done a lot of free labor and costs that are not accounted for.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Rob Carrick on facebook-

“After selling the family house, would you consider renting a condo instead of buying one?”

and a comment-

“It does not matter where you live, long term OWNING is better than RENTING any time. Everyone is focused on a short term loss right now, and not the long term gain…..Tom- yes I sell mortgages. Thanks for looking at my profile. My clients build equity every month they own, renters build nothing. ”

hey Tom, how is that equity building going for your clients these days?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

New inventory graph:

http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/inventory-graph/forum/topic/inventory-graph/?topic_page=3&num=15#post-2641

Inventory should decline from here to year end. It will be interesting to see when we levels become higher than 2008 again.

b5baxter
Member

New inventory graph:

http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/inventory-graph/forum/topic/inventory-graph/?topic_page=3&num=15#post-2641

Inventory should decline from here to year end. It will be interesting to see when we levels become higher than 2008 again.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@Bailing in BC: Questions don’t matter. Only facts. Fact: You’re poor. Fact: I’m rich. Any questions?

s.y.p.
Guest
s.y.p.

i drive by these every day on my way to work – but there is only 1 ‘for sale’ sign out – i guess they dont want to give the impression that the whole side of one block is up for sale? ps – they want too much.

http://i.imgur.com/4gVii.png

ArthurFonzarelli
Guest
ArthurFonzarelli

The Teranet data are awesome! Also glad to see jesse’s prognostication that prices could quite conceivably continue the downward trend even with the seasonal decrease in MOI in the Spring.

Question: has anyone here used Paul B as a purchasing realtor? We are looking to get a SFH in the next year if we can get a reasonably good deal, and I think we’ll give Paul B a shot based primarily on his help to this community over the years… I’ve seen other say that they would use Paul but has anyone done so?

Veni Vidi Vci
Guest
Veni Vidi Vci

@Bull! Bull! Bull!: So you’ve sold all your Vancouver real estate? Huh! Smart, but not so bullish. Maybe it’s time to change the name eh?

Dan in Calgary
Guest
Dan in Calgary

@Bull! Bull! Bull! “Questions don’t matter. Only facts. Fact: You’re poor. Fact: I’m rich. Any questions?”

What’s your point? Rich = __________?

Well, even if this is your measure of successful life, there’s always someone richer, like Zhang Yin. She laughs at your “riches”. You are poor person, not worthy of glance. Fact.

Actually, not fact. Just bad standard because, actually, rich = nothing.

Chabar
Guest
Chabar

Yet another HAM (Hot Asian Moron) in the city teaching us traditional driving culture and overseas customs. No insurance??? What if that Idiot hit someone just for fun? Maybe he would offer LV bag or condo in return to cover the damage?

http://www.theprovince.com/cars/insured+driver+says+fine+high/7444280/story.html

yvr2zrh
Member
As I sit here in ZRH the night before a short trip to YVR, I thought I would make an inventory model. The main assumptions were as follows. 1.) Sales will the same in 2013 as 2012. 2.) Listings would be the average between 2012 and 2009. 2012 was not overly high and 2009 was very very low as it was the end of the financial crisis, and listings were just not coming to market. The results were as follows. 1.) We are going to end this year with 20% higher inventory than last. This is pretty high but compared to 2008, it is 15% below. 2.) The inventory will evolve in an interesting way. We will not do 2008 over again and inventory will not exceed this peak. 3.) MOI will decrease into the spring “buying” season again. However,… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member
(Let’s fix the years – -) As I sit here in ZRH the night before a short trip to YVR, I thought I would make an inventory model. The main assumptions were as follows. 1.) Sales will the same in 2013 as 2012. 2.) Listings would be the average between 2012 and 2009. 2012 was not overly high and 2009 was very very low as it was the end of the financial crisis, and listings were just not coming to market. The results were as follows. 1.) We are going to end this year with 20% higher inventory than last. This is pretty high but compared to 2008, it is 15% below. 2.) The inventory will evolve in an interesting way. We will not do 2008 over again and inventory will not exceed this peak. 3.) MOI will decrease into… Read more »
RaggedyRenter
Guest
RaggedyRenter

@YVR2ZRH
I respect your analysis as always.
First half of 2012 was really a hot RE market with people trying to jump into the market before the rule changes. Can you model 2013 with a lower sales scenario? I would imagine there will be less appetite for RE in the first half of 2013 after long protracted declines in HPI and myriads of bad news on mainstream media.

Thanks!

yvr2zrh
Member

@RaggedyRenter:

I would actually disagree. All of the months at the beginning of 2012 were near the worst in the past 12 years except for 2008. If you take the best week in the past year, it was worse than all comparatives for the decade except for either 2008 or 2009. Right off the bat, we started down 20% on last year got worse into the summer and now are only running 20-25% below last year. However, the 2011 year ended very slow so being below 2011 is bad – which is why we are seeing the worst in over a decade other than the 2008 financial crisis.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Chabar:
He is a Cheena man so don’t pin it on all Asian communities.Only newly riched party cadets and its Cronies or offsprings have such arrogancy in their home country,Cheena.Now,they wanna to import such corrupt social norm into this country with overwhelming support from their party-influency Cheena benevolent associations.

shikko
Member

@Chabar, @Anonymous:
Given that nowhere in the article (you did actually both read the article, right?) is the ethnicity of the driver mentioned, please take your racist stupidity elsewhere.

Preferably off my internet.

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