A note from Ben Rabidoux

Ben Rabidoux runs a blog called The Economic Analyst that features focused analysis of economics and the Canadian housing market.  He is currently in Vancouver to do a presentation with David Lepoideviv titled Vancouver Real Estate: What’s Next?

This is happening tonight Wednesday the 28th – 7:00 pm at the Westin Bayshore in downtown Vancouver.

Update: the talk was last night, you can find some participant impressions in the comments below.

We don’t normally post about events, but many readers here may be interested in this one.  Here’s a comment Ben left here yesterday:

 

Hey to the VCI crowd.

I’m enjoying my time in this beautiful city, although I’ve been looking over my shoulder a lot with the CAAMP conference in town. I keep waiting to get jumped. So far, so good.

Had the pleasure of meeting a few of the forum characters. Most casual readers of this forum have no idea how many really smart professional analysts and portfolio managers read and contribute to this site. VCI is without a doubt the top online real estate forum in the country (should also give a shout-out to House Hunt Victoria which is also very solid).

One final plug for what brings me to the city: The seminar will be tomorrow at 7pm at the Westin Bayshore and as a teaser, the staff at the Lepoidevin Group have printed (in colour) and bound the entire presentation for every person in attendance to take home. Should be a fun conversation piece if you leave it on your coffee table.

http://www.realestate2013.ca for more info.

-Ben

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Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Can’t blame him for trying

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

I wonder if he would kindly post a PDF of the presentation after the event? Would be such a useful educational material especially for the Vancouver crowd.

Con-Rad
Guest
Con-Rad

From CAAMP, talk interest rates going to stay low for the next 7 years.

This is not industry shills talking.
This is a quote from David Dodge.

I know bears like the idea of a crash so they can buy at a lower price. I get that. But you have to prepare yourselves that it might take a while. For insightful guys like patriotz that is no problem because renting is equivalent to owning. His message is powerful if you understand it.

So. Bears. Why are you reading here, really? Serious question.

Bob Arctor
Member
Bob Arctor

@gokou3:
It’d be nice to see video of the event as well.

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley

Why are you posting here?

Interest rates are only one ingredient. Housing price crashes in the presence of multi-year stretches of cheap lending are nothing new.

And don’t assign that much confidence to caamp – they can see 7 years out as clearly as everyone else.

patriotz
Member

Canada AM (CTV) had a piece on the Trump condotel debacle at 7:35 local time which you might be able to see live or on their website.

Best appreciated for the unintentional humour, as when Bev talked about the “delusioned” buyers. “Expert” guest Brad Lamb (Toronto condo king) assured us that there has never been a RE downturn without a recession in North America. Which of course is untrue in Toronto and elsewhere, unless he really meant there was a recession after the downturn. 🙂

patriotz
Member

California Finds Economic Gloom Starting to Lift

After nearly five years of brutal economic decline, government retrenchment and a widespread loss of confidence in its future, California is showing the first signs of a rebound. There is evidence of job growth, economic stability, a resurgent housing market and rising spirits in a state that was among the worst hit by the recession.

How about that? RE prices that make sense are good for the economy.

Farmer
Guest
Farmer

I would very much like to hear a recap of the event if anyone of you is going to be present and is willing to take the time to post about it. Ben is one of the countries brightest and hardest working analysts and as we know he has been featured many times in our national media and print publications. I just wish I could be there in person to hear him but alas it is not possible this year.

groundhog
Guest
groundhog

@Con-rad

I doubt interest rates rise in the near future either, however that has little bearing on my opinion on Vancouver RE prices.

When interest rates do rise it’s likely they’ll rise by the force of the markets, rather then by the Bank of Canada’s choice. When interest rates rise across the western economies, most will be doomed (Japan!).

Piklishi
Guest
Piklishi

I will go tonight, maybe we should have the VCI corner there, will be nice to meet the peeps who write here, I think the bulls should be welcomed too. Also will be better to have different opinions.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Question: What does Ben Rabidoux do other than run a blog? Does he provide some type of service? I can’t tell from his blog.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

“Most casual readers of this forum have no idea how many really smart professional analysts and portfolio managers read and contribute to this site.”

That’s depressing. Knowing that people who have been wrong for 6 1/2 years and have missed the biggest bull run are managing other people’s money and charging for it… Makes me sad.

And they say real estate agents are crooks!

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

1700 PARTY WAS YESTERDAY!!! HAPPY 1700 DAY!!!

Any predictions on when we’ll reach 1600??

New Listings 114
Price Changes 85
Sold Listings 114
TI:16993

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@groundhog:

What do you mean by “(Japan!)” here?

Con-Rad
Guest
Con-Rad

@groundhog: There you go groundhog. I agree rising rates will hit prices hard. If they do rise that means bears with lots of cash will get more vancouver westside house for their money. If they don’t rise it means bears with lots of cash will get more vancouver westside house for their money. It will just take longer.

Con-Rad
Guest
Con-Rad

@Anonymous: groundhog thinks Japan is a fly searching for a windshield. I think he reads Kyle Bass.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

We need a secret VCI signal for those going tonight. Are there name tags? Just write a small vci at the end. Bull, you can just Wear your special gown made out of $100 bills.

VMD
Member

@Anonymous: it is on his blog. He is not Anonymous.
“About: Ben Rabidoux is an analyst and strategist with M Hanson Advisors, a market research firm catering to professional, institutional investors. His research focus is on mortgage finance and credit and housing as a disproportionate driver of the current Canadian economy. His work has been featured in the Globe and Mail, Canadian Business, Toronto Life, the Jerusalem Post, Macleans, and numerous websites including MSN, Yahoo, and Zero Hedge. “

VMD
Member

Interesting that OSFI’s Julie Dickson is also on the list of potential candidates to be the next BoC governor. Seems like someone with more “bite”. On the other hand, it might be a good idea for her to stay in OSFI to exercise her “bite” over CMHC (eg. enforcing the new rules governing mortgage insurers in early 2013). BoC governmor’s hands are often tied..

“Economic analyst Patti Croft said Julie Dickson, who heads the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada, would be her top pick.

“Her experience, expertise on the regulatory side would be a wonderful addition,” Croft said. “It’s something Mark Carney was very interested in. It was one of his comparative advantages and she has it in spades.””
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/11/27/f-bank-of-canada-governor.html

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Question: What do Bloggers do other than run a blog?
Answer: nothing else. they live with their parents rent free.

Simple
Guest
Simple

@Bull! Bull! Bull!:

Bull! Bull! Bull! You seem to have a bit of trouble understanding the the thesis of this forum. Let me put it in more relatable terms. Remember in the late ’90s when you thought you were rich because of your Beanie Baby collection? This is kind of like that.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@Simple: You don’t seem to understand that being wrong for 6 1/2 years is unacceptable for an investment professionals.

raincity
Guest
raincity

@Bull! Bull! Bull!: I used to think Nortel was overvalued, then it doubled in price. Was I wrong or right?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@VMD: “He is not Anonymous.”

Yes I figured that out by reading his name. Thanks for the info. I always like to know what someone is trying to sell me before showing up to a presentation.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Bull! Bull! Bull!: “You don’t seem to understand that being wrong for 6 1/2 years is unacceptable for an investment professionals.”

No, what you don’t understand is people here have not been wrong. There has been a bubble for 6.5 years which is exactly what people have been saying. No investment professional would invest in a real estate bubble intentionally other than finding a way to short it.