Falling, not crashing.

Here’s a nice article that should reassure you.

The housing market in Canada is forecast to fall, but not crash like in the US.

In fact the first three paragraphs each repeat that this will NOT be like a US style crash.

Canadian housing prices will fall 10% over the next several years and homebuilding will slow sharply in 2013, but the country’s recent property boom is not expected to end in a U.S.-style collapse, according to a Reuters poll.

The survey of 20 forecasters published on Friday showed the majority believe the Canadian government has done enough to rein in runaway prices, preventing the type of crash that has devastated the U.S. market for years.

“This isn’t a sharp correction, this isn’t a U.S.-style correction, it’s just simply an unwinding of the excess valuation that was created by artificially low interest rates for a long period of time,” said Craig Alexander, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank.

“I would emphasize that while a 10 % correction sounds scary, in actual fact, this would be a healthy outcome.”

Just a gentle feather slowly drifting to the safety of the ground.

Read the full article here.

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Mansur al-Hallaj
Member

@Piklishi: NLP is the last resort in preventing an average TV watcher from understanding what it is he sees. My favorite example is “upside-down V-shaped recovery”. Recovery. Recovery. It’s about recovery, see?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@mac: Why do I vote him up? Normally I don’t. But today I like what I see. The market refusing to crash. Bears proven wrong … again.

s
Guest
s

@mac,

It’s just a thank you to Paulb for his contribution regardless of the results. That’s the least we could do for him posting stats we don’t have access to, even if we don’t like the results.

mac
Member
mac

@paulb: Why is everyone voting up this sales/list ratio? Am I missing something? Aside for thanks Paul for providing us the much-desired numbers every day!

TPFKAA
Guest
TPFKAA

@Anonymous:

That REMAX guy obviously did not believe a word of what he was saying; he looked so uncomfortable and nervous with the script. I think he is just trying to cling to his job. That interview was the strongest indicator that the crash is real and here to stay that I have seen in a while.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Conrad: If you are who I think you are may I suggest any comments you make here can only hurt your future business.

N
Guest
N

@Conrad:

Just because something is going up in price, doesn’t make it a good deal. I’ve been right every year that I’ve paid less to my landlord than I would have to the bank.

Conrad
Guest
Conrad

another big sales day…I told ya’ll

can’t wait for 2013 to hear: this will be the year of the big crash really.

wrong 7 years in a row. soon to be 8

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop

@ Anon

Read it again. Steering committee this time…finance heavyweights.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@ReadyToPop: “Media outlets in Italy are reporting on that the Bilderberg Steering Committee has convened an emergency meeting in Rome to discuss the unfolding eurocrisis…”

Wasn’t Gordon Campbell invited to one of there meetings? Kind of highlight everything you need to know about the competency of the folks making up the group.

We’ll know there’ a real economic crisis pending when they invite Bob Rennie.

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop

Media outlets in Italy are reporting on that the Bilderberg Steering Committee has convened an emergency meeting in Rome to discuss the unfolding eurocrisis…

Bilderberg Calls Emergency Meeting in Rome…

bubbly
Member
bubbly

@Anonymous: puke

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@paulb: Realtors making those sells are working harder for their commissions. Pushing down asking prices of sellers, and roping in the few suckers…err buyers…still out there.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
Extend and Pretend
Guest
Extend and Pretend

What is telling about this local story on the Transunion report is no comments! Evidently the prevailing view is as follows: Debt? What is debt? Just make the minimum payment and don’t worry. We have lots of money now because we don’t have to pay rent…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/11/14/bc-personal-debt.html

Davidoff warns that could quickly change if there is a significant dip in housing prices.

“If prices fall 20 or 30 per cent, this could absolutely happen, some people think it’s in process already in Toronto and Vancouver, and if prices were to fall in the 20 to 30 percent range, these debt levels become difficult to sustain, because you don’t have the asset wealth to pay off what you owe.”

paulb
Member

New Listings 153
Price Changes 94
Sold Listings 121
TI:17469

http://www.paulboenisch.com

kansai92
Guest
kansai92

@patriotz:
Ya I believe US debt-to-income topped out at 147%
We’ve hit bottom and are now digging into the dirt.

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley

Oops – not contained in those figures is that the american data came from july 2007. Those are YOY numbers for the first year of the ‘american style’ crash…

Washington post reference article

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley

US style crash: According to NAR data, sales were down 13% to 482,000 from the peak of 554,000 in March 2006, and the national median price fell nearly 6% to $217,000 from a peak of $230,200 in July 2006.

Canadian style crash: According to BCREA, sales in BC declined 14.6 per cent and the average MLS® residential price was $508,292, down 5.1 per cent from a year ago.

Clearly, these are nothing alike…. like trying to compare eggplants and aubergines.

patriotz
Member

@Tony:
“any idea how large CDN consumer debt is in comparison to US? any data?”

http://theeconomicanalyst.com/content/comments-cibcs-no-us-style-crash-canadian-housing-report-part-2

Note that Ben’s latest data is 2012Q2 so it’s likely Canada has equalled the US household debt/GDP at peak already. We’re already well past them in household debt/disposable income.

good-format
Guest
good-format

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 14.6%> to $2.7 billion in October compared to the same month last year. A total of 5,276 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period, down 10% from October 2011. The average MLS® residential price was $508,292, down 5.1% from a year ago.

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/news-and-publications/news-room/news-releases/2012-10-statistical-release

kansai92
Guest
kansai92

Nice, 163% and rising! Are we number ONE yet?
What’s the world record in the Western World?
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/average-consumer-debt-in-canada-rises-past-26-700-1.1037894

At some point, doesn’t the creditor usually turn off the taps?
Even the bartender cuts you off at some point.

kansai92
Guest
kansai92

“It’s not flying, it’s falling… with style”

Tony
Guest
Tony

any idea how large CDN consumer debt is in comparison to US? any data?

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

@ Anonymous,

Consumer debt loads are rising in part because tapped out leveraggios are trying to kite their way through this “soft patch.” Home Capital Group provides a credit card with a fat credit limit to each of their dodgy mortgagees.

Keep the plates spinning boys!