FFFA! Ben! CMHC! BOC! Fear! Fraud!

It’s that time of the week again! Let’s do our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

North Americas #1 Bubble
Who will be the next BOC head?
Fear, not foreign investment
Historical inventory graph
Cooling house prices not bad
Rabidoux/lepoidevin talk impressions
CMHC MI levels drop 37%
Short the banks?
RBC 22% profit increase
Flaherty asks for budget input
Flipping and fraud

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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george
Guest
george

“The European Central Bank’s court victory allowing it to withhold files showing how Greece used derivatives to hide its debt leaves one of the region’s most powerful institutions free from public scrutiny as it assumes even more regulatory power.

The European Union’s General Court in Luxembourg ruled yesterday that the central bank was right to keep secret documents that would reveal how much the ECB knew about the true state of Greece’s accounts before the country needed a 240 billion-euro ($311 billion) taxpayer-funded rescue.”

“In yesterday’s decision, the court upheld the ECB’s opinion that the documents sought by Bloomberg could damage the public interest and aggravate Europe’s financial crisis.”

ECB Withholding Secret Greek Swaps File Keeps Taxpayers in Dark

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-30/ecb-withholding-secret-greek-swaps-file-keeps-taxpayers-in-dark.html

Unsettled Worker
Guest
Unsettled Worker

Cooling house prices? I think it is still far from real cooling. Sooner or later, the prices will drop for more than 2-3 per cent. Following the “Canadian census from 2011, median age is growing and population over 65 is now representing more than 10 per cent of the Canadian population. These baby-boomers represent a real threat to the RE market, because they put an extreme pressure on the prices of the real estate. Unsurprisingly, number of private property has grown as well (for 7 per cent). So the debt run economy is still working its way to a major depression.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Did you guys hear about the real estate agent in Langley who has been charged with a string of robberies of pharmacies in Langley, Abbotsford, Surrey, and Maple Ridge.

Whispers-from-the-edge-of-the-rainforest profiled this story and tried to draw a connection to the economic hardships currently experienced by realtors in a down market. The problem with that theory is that usually when people rob pharmacies, it’s opiates they are after not cash. So it could be a case of a drug addicted real estate agent desperate for a fix.

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/

Nancy
Guest
Nancy

Where does this forum see the CAD going relative to USD in 2013? Some people I know are saying the real estate crash will cause the CAD to go down to 0.80 in 2013. A couple I know who frequently shop in the US for groceries and gas are hoarding US cash now while it is still at par. But with the US fiscal cliff quickly approaching, I don’t think this is a great time to be investing in the USD. If the US does go over the fiscal cliff, couldn’t that send the CAD up to $1.10 again? Maybe the Canadian real estate crash and US fiscal cliff will cancel each other out and the CAD won’t move much against the USD in 2013?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Sorry, this is the correct link to the Whispers-from-the-edge-of-the-rainforest story on the realtor-turned-alleged-pharmacy-robber:

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/11/sign-of-times-young-maple-ridge-realtor.html

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Sorry, I did not include the correct link in my post. This is the link to the blog post about the realtor who is charged with robbing pharmacies:

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/11/sign-of-times-young-maple-ridge-realtor.html

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Nancy: “Where does this forum see the CAD going relative to USD in 2013?”

For the most part the CAD will reflect oil prices. Since pretty much every other economy in the world is in trouble to some extent the CAD will do fine relative to the USD, Euro and Yen even after our housing crash. Gold will be the only thing going up.

Dave
Member

@Anonymous:

I agree that our dollar has been a petrodollar for a number of years now. Take note that US oil production is headed up and is going to hit all time highs in the coming years. Their economy is going to improve and together that means their dollar is headed up, which means ours is headed down.

Gold is basically being traded as an alternative currency. With a recovery in the US dollar, expect gold to drop.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Nancy:

People aren’t buying CAD because they think the Canadian economy is a great place to invest, they are buying it to purchase comodities. Comodities are in a bubble. That could deflate at any time but it has nothing to do with the Canadian economy. In the CAD/US pair a lot of what you see is a low USD. So the forces that are distorting this pair don’t really include Canadian real estate to any significant extent.

In general, if you spend eighty cents in the US you get as much stuff as you would if you spend a dollar in Canada. That is the fundamental level, but currencies can be different from fundamentals more or less forever.

VMD
Member

@Anonymous:
” So it could be a case of a drug addicted real estate agent desperate for a fix”
– understandable, supply’s tight nowadays thanks to a repentant drug lord “F”

VMD
Member

Australia launches ‘golden ticket’ visa for millionaires
28 Nov 2012
Dubbed the “golden ticket” visa, individuals will need AU$5 million (£3.3 million) to qualify, while spending a minimum of 160 days in Australia during this period. The money must be invested in certain assets that are based in Australia including managed funds, government bonds and infrastructure projects.
Other qualifying investments include start-up companies and agri-businesses.

The Significant Investor scheme, which was launched earlier this week, means an expat can be fast-tracked for a visa even if they fail the points system or are above the age limit. There is no English language threshold requirement either, although applicants over the age of 18 must demonstrate functional English, otherwise additional costs may apply.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
@Dave: “Take note that US oil production is headed up and is going to hit all time highs in the coming years. Their economy is going to improve and together that means their dollar is headed up, which means ours is headed down.” Thanks for predicting the future. I am glad someone can. The one thing your crystal ball didn’t take note of is many of your predictions counter each other. Oil production going up = lower oil prices = lower oil production Their economy is going to improve = more oil used = higher oil prices You figure out how all that balances out. The USD has been heading down due to the massive debt and deficit. There is no way that is going to change under Obama in the next 4 years. On the other hand it is… Read more »
Nancy
Guest
Nancy
@Anonymous #9 “People aren’t buying CAD because they think the Canadian economy is a great place to invest, they are buying it to purchase comodities.” I understand that. But clearly investors don’t think Canada is a TERRIBLE place to invest. What happens if/when things go really sour in Canada? What happens when the real estate crash is in full swing? What happens when avg prices are down 30% nationwide? What happens when CMHC requires a bail-out? What happens when the big Canadian banks run into trouble due to the real estate crash. Are you saying the Canadian dollar is bullet proof against the real estate crash because of the commodity bubble? Can’t we expect the real estate crash to exert **some** downward pressure on CAD? Regarding the commodity bubble and oil in particular, I see a lot of downside here… Read more »
Ketel one
Guest
Ketel one

@dave
US all time oil production was 1970. Right now it is 5.7 mil barrels a day. There is no way oil production reach 10 mill a day ever. And don,t forget at what cost price of new discovered oil. It is way higher then in the 70’s.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Ketel one:

Absolutely correct! Anyone who was alive in the 70s or anyone who has read Hubbert’s book on peak oil, knows that US oil production peaked in 1970. That should be common knowledge to most intelligent people. And yes, cost of exploration and refining is way up today compared to back then. The oil left today is that hard-to-find, expensive-to-extract variety.

It’s frustrating how people can make such ridiculous BS statements like US oil production is going to reach an all time high in the future! The Texas oil fields are well passed their prime years. Most people don’t take the time to challenge such obvious crap statements as that one, so thank you for calling BS to Dave!

yvr2zrh
Member
One quick comment as I head into the weekend here in Zurich. The month is over. It was bad on all fronts and the last couple of days of the month look to be pretty terrible. MOI will be over 9. Just wait for the Avg. Price graph from Larry tomorrow. . . Big big drop this month. Possibly going to even bring the price down to the low of the year. This is for detached. For attached, we are looking at another 1% decrease. On HPI – I think we should see a result quite correlated with the MOI/Price change graph that we have been tracking over the years. So – November 2012 allows us to continue down the same track we have seen since the Spring. It also goes to show how completely rediculous the Real Estate board… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@yvr2zrh:
“For attached, we are looking at another 1% decrease. On HPI – I think we should see a result quite correlated with the MOI/Price change graph that we have been tracking over the years. ”

Thank you for your comment and info and have a good weekend.

If there is no sale in an area for the whole month (e.g. Point Grey, UEL, etc.), so there would be no price drop according to the Real Estate Board?

Mr. Silverfish
Guest
Mr. Silverfish

@Anonymous: Actually, thanks to new oil shale finds like the Bakken, the US will be a net oil exporter within twenty years.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/12/news/economy/us-oil-production-energy/index.html?iid=HP_LN&hpt=hp_t3

trash crash alert
Guest
trash crash alert
When our central banker arrives in London this June off a British Airways flight or government plane, the full force of the market crash for the Canadian real estate market will be in play. I would expect to see 30% declines this spring in Toronto & Vancouver. Man, would not want to be in those shoes arriving in Britain while the homeland is going up in financial flames. The legacy of the cons & central banker will be a new national symbol for Canada, toss the polar bear out and power wash the beaver down the stream, we have a new national bird. The concrete condo tower with steamed windows surrounded by cardboard houses held in place by synthetic glue, 2×4’s,plastic, big box store finishings and photo copy floors. Let’s raise interest rates to at least its natural rate to… Read more »
SamanthaB
Guest
SamanthaB

You’re all still here? :giggles:

Just thought I’d check in and see how the other half is living. Apparently there’s a real estate crash going on. Well maybe if you live in a big drafty old house, but downtown condos in the best city in the world are and always will be a great investment.

It’s very simply. Cream rises to the top. Don’t be angry, just accept your place in life.

It’s going to be another hot night on the town for me. If you seem me sipping my cranteene, don’t say Hi!

Ketel one
Guest
Ketel one

@mr silverfish
US will become exporter ONLY if destroy their consumtion of 20 mil a day by two thirds. How likely is that? Don’t believe crap that MSM media presents. It’s pure fantasy. Get info from independent industry sources.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

@Ketel one: Apprently US oil production will exceed that in the 70’s thanks to a new extraction technique called hydraulic fracturing. I read about this a few weeks ago and was very surprised.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/energy/article/U-S-oil-output-set-to-boom-3345237.php

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Nancy:

I wouldn’t bet on USD strength any time soon.

They have been steadily devaluing their currency and their entire economy by racking up debt and printing enormous sums of paper money.

This chart shows how several countries have fared over the last 10 years in regards to their share of global GDP.

For the US, UK and Japan it’s an ugly picture.

http://acrossthestreetnet.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/world-bank-1.png

Ketel one
Guest
Ketel one

@bag it tag it
Decline rate of shale oil enormous. Technique of fracking is not new. It existed 30 years ago but it was not commercially viable. The reason we have shale oil extraction is because of the high price of oil otervise it would not be astory. But decline rates are huge after just one year of production

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