FFFA! SALES! CONDOS! INFLATION! RENT! POT!

It’s that time of the week again, this is when we do our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Winter freeze for Vancouver sales?
RET better than a new condo?
Calgary & Edmonton beat Vancouver
Don’t bet on inflation for home prices
Rent Vs. Buy
Everybody must get stoned
West Van waterfront acreage $20.00
Rona sales struggling
Shadow inventory?
Mr. Christie you make good condos
Really low sales

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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patriotz
Member

Canada House Prices To Drop, Stay Down For A Decade, Causing Unemployment, Scotia Says

“The 10 Most Expensive Cities To Rent In Canada” at the bottom is also interesting. Except for the #1 spot, rents don’t vary a lot – but the price to buy does.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

The Feds want $27 Million in combating fraudulent refugees. Why not just as a condition of being accepted into Canada, you can’t return to the source country in the future.

As soon as a refugee gets their permanent residency, they go back and gloat. And they should be forced to give up their original passports. What use is it to them if they are fleeing a country?

Massive Corruption at all levels.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/09/federal-government-wants-27m-to-crack-down-on-bogus-refugees-deport-criminals/

patriotz
Member

@RealityCheck:
“Why not just as a condition of being accepted into Canada, you can’t return to the source country in the future.”

Once someone becomes a citizen, they can leave and re-enter the country as they please. Permanent residents have restrictions on how long they can be outside the country without losing status, but as you’d read on this forum most people abusing this did not come as refugees.

A refugee claimant who has not yet acquired permanent residence does forfeit their claim if they leave the country.

The Government could legally require people becoming Canadian citizens to give up previous citizenship. This won’t happen for political reasons. Even if it did, many countries allow former citizens to come back and live by giving them residency permits.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

@ patriots,

I thought the whole point of being a refugee is to flee a country. Not return for a visit soon after your approved.

Don Lapre
Member
Don Lapre

Don’t worry everyone… Vancouver home prices will only fall 12.5% over the next few years!!

I have a feeling the majority of used house salespersons incomes will fall substantially more…

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/09/canadas-home-prices-seen-falling-not-crashing/

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
Mark Carney in the Globe & Mail: “Fewer housing starts bring little comfort to Carney” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/fewer-housing-starts-bring-little-comfort-to-carney/article5150943/ “Canadian builders started work on new houses in October at a rate that would produce 204,107 units over a year, a sharp deceleration from a year earlier, when houses were being built at an annual rate of 223,995. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney was asked about the fast-decelerating rate of housing construction at a press conference in Montreal on Thursday. He offered a small amount of insight on how the central bank is gauging the housing bubble that might not be widely known. There are varying estimates of the pace of household formation in Canada. BMO Nesbitt Burns says it’s about 180,000 per year. The central bank thinks it’s about 190,000, Mr. Carney said Thursday. Whichever number, it’s still less than the current… Read more »
Burgundy
Guest
Burgundy

it is so funny how every article on housing has a standard quote from “experts” that is not US style crashing 🙂
don’t believe your lying eyes

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

I don’t understand how the media can put out articles which say that house prices are only going to drop 10% in the next few years…haven’t Vancouver average house prices already gone down 12% yoy? Am I missing something?

Boy
Guest
Boy

@patriotz:

Do you know from which two countries are majority of the people with dual citizen? Its the United States of America and Britian.

jesse
Member
@pricedoutfornow: “the media can put out articles which say that house prices are only going to drop 10% in the next few years” If you read patriotz’s linked huffpo column they stated 10% across the country with larger declines in Vancouver and other overinflated markets. They just haven’t come out and said “Vancouver is going to drop at least 20%”. (Maybe they have?) The Scotia report is one of the most bearish stances I’ve seen. It is highlighting that housing market slumps last many years. They haven’t yet dealt with the possibility that the (upcoming?) slump will be more prolonged than past ones because the peak coincides with negative real interest rates and that may not continue, and the magnitude of the run-up is higher with higher debt loads. All those factors mean it will take far longer to retrench… Read more »
Yalie
Guest
Yalie

@jesse:

I think Scotia is underestimating how long speculative bubbles of the length seen in Vancouver (and the rest of Canada to a lesser degree) will take to unwind, or at least is not seriously considering it in their reports.

They know perfectly well how long real estate bubbles take to deflate. As others have pointed out on this blog, industry economists are not paid to enlighten, they are paid to spin.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@jesse:

I think Scotia is underestimating how long speculative bubbles of the length seen in Vancouver (and the rest of Canada to a lesser degree) will take to unwind, or at least is not seriously considering it in their reports.

This isn’t surprising considering it’s taken them this long to finally admit that there is a problem in the first place. I’m sure that behind closed doors the sentiment is different.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

Had a day off Wednesday an went to the Langley Costco at around 2pm. Couldn’t find a parking spot. People with Wealth don’t work it seems…yet the Mantra is either Higher Income Taxes or Lower Income Taxes!

Increasing salary income taxes is the wrong way to go. Tax wealth instead! Say 0.1% per year for investable assets over $2 Million (or whatever).

Raising salary income taxes only hurts the working class…while the wealthy laugh all the way to Costco.

VMD
Member

BC Credit Unions facing pressure from provincial regulators to follow OSFI B-50 Rules:
“there is already evidence that some provincial regulators are taking their cue from federal policy changes including at least two provincial regulators – the Deposit Insurance Corporation of Ontario (DICO) and the Financial Institutions Commission in British Columbia (FICOM)9 – that have asked member institutions to closely follow the recently introduced OSFI guidelines around residential mortgage lending”
Source: Credit Union Central of Canada: System Brief Oct 2012

Also read: CMT

VMD
Member

@VMD:
correction: B-20, of course.

So, BC/ON credit unions may actually not benefit much from OSFI rules that impact federally regulated financial institutions.

asalvari1
Guest
asalvari1

@RealityCheck:

Linking costco with the rich class makes my brain do GPF.

Are you serious ?

More Data Please
Guest
More Data Please
@RealityCheck: Langley Costco Kiters? Thank you for a good post and talking point. Were you able to establish anything specific about the demographic at the Wed 2pm overcrowded Langley Costco? Could these shoppers simply be taking a long lunch break or half a day off from any of the various slacker type jobs found in larger enterprises or government agencies? Are they part time workers or “between” jobs? The so called wealth in Canada is a real paradox in my opinion. While people may feel wealthy and even project this illusion on the surface, legitimate personal assets minus liabilities by any survey I’ve ever seen is often a small or negative number in Canada. http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/06/12/countries-with-most-millionaires_n_1590824.html 2012 percentage of millionaires survey: Canada dead last #20. USA #7. USA has nearly three times as many millionaires per capita than Canada and few… Read more »
Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@asalvari1:

Some people are rich because they’re careful with every cent. Grocery shopping at Urban Fare is a great way to go broke.

Burgundy
Guest
Burgundy

when ever i am in the line at the store i get surprised when people open their wallets and there are whole stack of credit cards. it’s like collectors items for some people.

asalvari1
Guest
asalvari1

@Vote Down The Facts:
While that statement is true, I am sure you are not proposing that everybody shopping at costco is super rich.

Are you ?

I know of such people, there are some wealthy folks living here in Vancouver, shopping clothes at Costco and drive 20 years old cars. That does not make all the people shopping there wealthy.

And yet, there are cheaper stores then Costco. Costco is not cheap(est) AND costco knows it. They also know exactly who they target, and rich people are not in their target audience.

For disclosure, I have Costco card( and I am not feeling rich, even when i shop there).

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

@asalvari1: Costco shoppers do have above-average incomes.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@asalvari1: “While that statement is true, I am sure you are not proposing that everybody shopping at costco is super rich. Are you ?”

Of course not.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@RealityCheck: I voted you up because that’s the funniest thing I’ve read today. Wealthy at Costco! Hahahaha.

Remind me of the scene is Queen of Versailles where the billionaire property developers family (who are going broke in the recession) do their Christmas shopping at walmart and can barely fit it all in their SUV.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

@Anonymous: Its true. I had commented how may Benz, BMW and Audi’s parked at Costco before. HAMs love to buy name brands at discounted prices. Heaven help our retailers.

Naked Official #9000
Guest
Naked Official #9000

@Boy:

awesome, let’s keep that up

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