Is the boomer wave crashing?
Pacifica Partners has released a new report on the housing market and there’s a write up over at the Globe and Mail.
Anyone still think the housing market’s going to snap back from the weakening trend that has taken hold in the past couple of months? It’s not, so act accordingly. Adjusting our expectations about housing won’t be easy because we’ve seen prices rise dramatically. Canadian Real Estate Association numbers show an average annual price gain of 7.7 per cent over the past 10 years on a national basis.
Aman Bhangu, Pacifica’s vice-president of research, said real estate has performed a lot like stocks did before the twin stock market crashes of the past decade. “At the end of the 1980s and 1990s, you had that mantra of ‘buy and hold, stock markets always go up, just get in there.’ It’s likewise with real estate – ‘real estate always goes up.’”
Mr. Bhangu said that taking a fresh look at the fundamentals supporting the real estate sector suggests prices are overvalued today by one-third, while other estimates call for a price decline of 10 to 25 per cent from current levels. Forecasts like these are educated guesses, whereas the demographic impact on housing is rooted in basic numbers.
It’s worth reading both the original report in full, there’s lots of interesting graphs there.
December 12th, 2012 at 10:49 am 1
Interesting paralell with stock market performance. Anyone still hear about “dollar cost averaging” re: stock investments? That works the best in a mostly-up market.
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December 12th, 2012 at 11:11 am 2
It’s too bad we’re having all these issues with the site. Feels like we’re losing the regular traffic.
Very interesting Federal Reserve announcement today. Not only is the Fed fixing the price of short money, and then trying to fix the price of longer money through open market purchases, now they are committing to pretty much unlimited money printing to spur enough borrowing to reduce “unemployment” to 6.5%. Not satisfied with targeting the activity level in the economy, they are also directing where that activity should go by specifically buying mortgage bonds, so that it goes into loans for housing. At least so far they are leaving the colour of house paint up to the free market.
Personally, I have no idea whether all these price fixing / money printing schemes will work in practice. However, given that the official unemployment number is just a made up number that has been improving lower mainly on changes in assumptions about how many people are in the workforce, I’m certain the program will “work” in some official sense. At this point, it might be just easier for the Congress to legislate house prices, probably resulting in fewer unintended consequences than this goofy scheme.
Impact on Canada may, perversely, be to force Mark Carney’s hand on one or two farewell rate hikes, which would complete the job of inverting the Canadian yield curve prior to a recession.
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December 12th, 2012 at 1:02 pm 3
Bottom call!
Housing market appears to have achieved soft landing: Scotiabank report
Thanks to koozdra at HHV.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 12th, 2012 at 1:27 pm 4
Soft landing achieved! I guess that explains why this blog has suddenly gone so quiet. Bears stunned into silence.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 12th, 2012 at 1:35 pm 5
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December 12th, 2012 at 1:43 pm 6
“Bottom call!
Housing market appears to have achieved soft landing: Scotiabank report
Thanks to koozdra at HHV.”
Misleading article title from CTV, the report states “have achieved soft landing THIS FALL”. Further downward pressure on price is still ongoing.
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December 12th, 2012 at 1:49 pm 7
@HAM Solo
Looks like Carney is recommending the same course of action in canada. And england too maybe. Seems we are all have the same game plan – namely the Goldman Sachs reacharound.
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December 12th, 2012 at 2:15 pm 8
The difference between Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada is US FED is privately owned bank.
This is how FED works
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrwbgdtbdXE
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December 12th, 2012 at 2:25 pm 9
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December 12th, 2012 at 2:36 pm 10
More like “Federal Reserve [and BoC Carney are] now unambiguously siding with the country’s [job entitled] unemploy[ABLE].”
Watch for the day equity markets decline sharply on Bernanke’s future “dimulus” pledges. Almost there… No market reaction this time.
As for the Boomer Wave Crash, we heard from the nominal village idiot Boomers in the G&M article comments. They don’t believe are tapped out. Evidently they are planning to hold their HELOC’s until the bottom and then sell in bankruptcy to keep their kids from having to sell their ponzi palaces. Good on them for taking responsibility for their kids.
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December 12th, 2012 at 2:39 pm 11
“Bottom call!
Housing market appears to have achieved soft landing: Scotiabank report”
Reading between the lines…. if you own Scotibank stock, sell now!
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December 12th, 2012 at 2:55 pm 12
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December 12th, 2012 at 2:55 pm 13
Richmond Realtor James Wong’s Nov report: “Richmond SFH to suffer most in price erosion. 2013 another difficult year”
Inventory:
- SFH at 12.2 months of inventory (MOI)
SFH > $1.0M: 16.4 MOI
SFH > $1.5M: 24.4 MOI
- Condos at 9.9 MOI
- Town Houses at 8.2 MOI
Jan 1st, 2012 Total Inventory (all types) in Richmond: 1655
Projected Jan 1st, 2013 Total Inventory in Richmond: 1950 (+18% YoY)
“The absence of home buyers, dampened market sentiment, and tightened lending rules are expected to continue into 2013. The current MOI though better than the past 2 months, will likely be reversed when more new listings hit the market the next few weeks.”
“There are no signs of the Government changing or relaxing the current lending directives to Canadian Banks. Richmond’s market for 2013 is expected to have persistently high number of homes for sale and below average buying interest.”
http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=854
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 12th, 2012 at 3:11 pm 14
MLS® V977501
A half duplex for 548K in Marpole… not bad, not bad. Getting better anyway.
When it is priced at 400K, MAY BE someone will be interested.
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December 12th, 2012 at 3:12 pm 15
@ Guy Smiley
Thanks for the link. It really is remarkable. I keep thinking about Animal Farm, the George Orwell novel. “Free marketers” in name essentially stampeding private citizens’ capital into all sorts of goofy “investments” in order to keep the average joe busy building things that nobody really needs. We spent 50 years standing up to the Soviets for this? Central banking = central economic planning.
Already, retired plumbers who haven’t worked for years, but who bought houses in the 1970′s, are jamming Mexican holiday spots and Alaska cruise ships. Meanwhile, the top qualified young doctors are buried under student loans and are boiling shoe leather to pay for 3 bedroom dumps in East Van.
If you subsidize the construction of fishing boats, you destroy the fishery. If you subsidize home construction, you will eventually ruin the building businss. Now we’re going to target GDP growth with money printing? Word to the wise, you can print money, but you can’t print wealth.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 12th, 2012 at 3:20 pm 16
All this chatter about a soft landing being achieved, did they get the memo that the plane is still accelerating forward on the runway? Soon it runs out of land (It’s Vancouver right?) and will be underwater (pun intended). Spring 2013 anyone?
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December 12th, 2012 at 3:26 pm 17
I still don’t understand how all this endless money printing is not leading to any inflation. Where IS the money going then?
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December 12th, 2012 at 3:29 pm 18
“MLS® V977501
A half duplex for 548K in Marpole… not bad, not bad.”
Bad. What appears to be near identical unit in same complex for rent, $1600/month:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3395719813.html
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December 12th, 2012 at 3:45 pm 19
#7 Guy Smiley
Thanks for the link. The most popular comment so far is:
“Which cretin employed this utter scum? As a pensioner, I refuse to see my pension withered away by inflation because of some foreign moron.”
KlingonOffTheStarboardBow
Yesterday 03:16 PM
The brits are cheering the new Governor.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 12th, 2012 at 4:13 pm 20
Toronto, December 12, 2012 — Moody’s Investors Service has revised the outlook on the Province of British Columbia’s Aaa issuer and debt ratings to negative from stable, affecting approximately CAD39.8 billion in debt securities.
RATINGS RATIONALE
“The negative outlook reflects Moody’s assessment of the risks to the province’s ability to reverse the recent accumulation in debt with the softened economic outlook, weaker commodity prices and continued expense pressures,” said Moody’s Assistant Vice President Jennifer Wong, lead analyst for the province.
In the province’s second quarter report, released in November 2012, the Economic Forecast Council (group of private economic forecasters) revised its forecasts down for provincial growth in 2012 and 2013 to 2.1% and 2.2% from 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively. The slowing in the provincial economy, continued weak natural gas prices and delay in the expected sale of the province’s Little Mountain property have translated into a wider deficit for the 2012-13 fiscal year. The deficit is now projected to be C$1.5 billion (3.5% of revenues), compared to C$1.0 billion forecast at budget time. With the posting of operating deficits in recent fiscal years along with significant capital expenditures, the province increased its net debt to an estimated C$33.6 billion, or 82% of revenues, at March 31, 2012, from roughly 65% of revenues at March 31, 2008.
Full report: http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Revises-British-Columbias-Outlook-to-Negative-from-Stable-on–PR_261569
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December 12th, 2012 at 4:31 pm 21
headlines tonight, similar one have been for months, years
“Australian stocks extend multi-month highs”
“Japan stocks soar on weaker yen”
bears all BC has to do is to align itself to Asia and the next 100 year growth is secured. Hook up our resources to Asia offer secure retirement for Asian elite and Vancouver is “Monte Carlo” of the West Cost.
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December 12th, 2012 at 4:32 pm 22
Will this post go thru? Dunno. But West (just behind the OV) has broken ground. Soon there will be a total of 14 new condos in the area.
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December 12th, 2012 at 4:46 pm 23
Among other things, it is going into the bond market to make sure that longer term bonds don’t pay anything either. All part of the grand plan I’m afraid.
You saved money to buy a home with responsible debt levels? Well, since you didn’t act irresponsibly to overpay with credit, the wisdom among Bernanke and the lot who are allowed to operate the monetary controls is that your savings are the problem with the economy.
This lot also believes that if the economy has to throw some obsolete workers out of work that didn’t save a dime, you are to blame. Not only do they want to lower overnight rates, they also want low long bond rates and skyrocketing prices in whatever they can cause to skyrocket in order to further devalue savings.
BTW, I see these stupid posts about “How the Fed Works” that try to derail the issue. Pay no attention to those conspiracy idiots. Central banks are accountable to their governments. The Fed IS NOT A PRIVATE BANK and could be doing things differently if so called “full unemployment” wasn’t a factor in decisionmaking.
Full employment at all costs causes lower interest rates across all maturities and generates enormous credit fueled bubbles in unproductive assets like houses and commodities. In some countries food costs have risen to the point where people are starving because of this lunacy!
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December 12th, 2012 at 4:59 pm 24
@billy bob
Living in Monte Carlo (which is, btw, a few km from where I grew up) was NEVER my dream. Far from it, actually: I moved 10,000 km away. Noisy sports cars, casinos, easy/dirty money and expansive whores = not my dream city.
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December 12th, 2012 at 5:01 pm 25
Just wonder what kind of ads does everyone else see on the upper left box?? I think they traced what you searched on google?
I see Autowest Infiniti’s ads constantly…
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December 12th, 2012 at 5:06 pm 26
@HAM solo
“Impact on Canada may, perversely, be to force Mark Carney’s hand on one or two farewell rate hikes, which would complete the job of inverting the Canadian yield curve prior to a recession.”
You lost me on that one. Please explain
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December 12th, 2012 at 5:14 pm 27
that ad thing is weird, i look up a computer on Amazon, and every ad on every website i visit has something to do with Asus or HP…wtf
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December 12th, 2012 at 5:22 pm 28
New Listings 76
Price Changes 43
Sold Listings 60
TI:15455
http://www.paulboenisch.com
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December 12th, 2012 at 5:25 pm 29
Thanks to paulb for his dedication to the daily numbers, and to THE POPE for keeping this site up and running through thick and thin.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 12th, 2012 at 5:30 pm 30
Short’em High Says:
Could it be that the banks don’t make as much profit from savers, in the form of loans?
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December 12th, 2012 at 5:34 pm 31
“Could it be that the banks don’t make as much profit from savers, in the form of loans?”
Banks borrow money from savers and lend it to borrowers. They don’t make money on savers or borrowers per se, but from the spread between deposit and lending rates.
Of course the savers don’t have to be in Canada. Canada is in fact a large net borrower from the rest of the world.
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December 12th, 2012 at 5:44 pm 32
Hey @billy bob, stick to playin’ the banjo!
Of course equities will fly up in Japan and Australia when the BoJ (Bank of Japan) forces money out of government bonds with money printing. This is just a replay of Bernanke’s interference in the US (and Canadian markets) earlier this year. The only difference is the BoJ printed money to devalue the Yen. Bernanke did it in the name of “full employment”.
Shortly and inevitably the Yen printing will make a top in those markets as did the USD printing top out US markets recently. Equity markets can only go so far on printed money.
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December 12th, 2012 at 5:49 pm 33
PaulB, great job with you sharing the stats.
Possible to include Average List price vs Average Sale price for sub 1 million properties? To get a feel for the ‘spread’.
Thx.
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December 12th, 2012 at 6:20 pm 34
That month-end total from VHB is getting closer to sub-1200. I think VMD is predicting 1110 for the month-end. My estimate is a bit higher at around 1159. We’re still looking a bit too pessimistic, but bears do what bears do!
Pope, VHB, and paulb all get a round on me, the obsessive data nerd, when/if we meet.
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December 12th, 2012 at 6:54 pm 35
@Jesse
1110 or 1159, we’re still at 2nd lowest December sales and S/L ratios in last 10+ years.
Not that far away from Dec 2008′s 924 sales either.
2013 will indeed be an interesting year. We’ll likely hear a lot more moans and groans coming from realtors and sellers.
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December 12th, 2012 at 7:06 pm 36
@ Patriotz
Yes, you are correct, but wouldn’t they still prefer the 5/35ers profit wise?
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December 12th, 2012 at 7:12 pm 37
@RealityCheck.
I got 58 sales today. Average list price: $728,610. Average Sales price: $685,840. Sales prices 94% of list. 1 property sold over list. 3 sold at list. Rest under.
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December 12th, 2012 at 8:21 pm 38
@ Ben
QE4 might just lead to a wealth-effect risk asset rally that might help to continue multiple offers for SFH in North Central Toronto into the spring. That, in turn might catch the notice of F and or C, which might lead them to follow through on the long-threatened rate increase. I think Toronto has not had as many “pizza boy takes out $600k mortage stories yet.
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December 12th, 2012 at 9:15 pm 39
I rent at Park West in Yaletown and was just at the holiday party, met several of the people in this building. I was surprised by how many of them are renting. I was under the impression that yaletown is filled with speculators, but it seems that many of the people who live here are renting.
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December 12th, 2012 at 10:07 pm 40
“but it seems that many of the people who live here are renting.”
Meaning of course that most of the condos are owned by speculators and are being rented out while their fortune grows.
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December 12th, 2012 at 10:19 pm 41
“that ad thing is weird, i look up a computer on Amazon, and every ad on every website i visit has something to do with Asus or HP…wtf”
That’s because big Google keep track of what you’re doing online.
Use Google Chrome, Incognito mode, Adblock and Ghostery. As a bonus you’ll bypass globeandmail paywall
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December 12th, 2012 at 11:16 pm 42
“I was surprised by how many of them are renting. I was under the impression that yaletown is filled with speculators, but it seems that many of the people who live here are renting.”
I would say about 50% of downtown condos are rented. That actually confirms the amount of speculation – just not by the people living in them. The owners live in their parents Surrey basement suites in order to afford the negative cash flow.
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:43 am 43
browsing thru the biz news this morning.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/60-canadians-travel-over-holidays-spend-average-563-125036728–finance.html
“60% of Canadians to travel over holidays; to spend an average of $563: BMO”
not bad considering all the gloom & doom that you guys talk about it here,
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December 13th, 2012 at 7:17 am 44
Billy Bob – Probably $500 of that is put on credit .
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December 13th, 2012 at 8:06 am 45
“not bad considering all the gloom & doom that you guys talk about it here,”
What doom and gloom would that be?
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December 13th, 2012 at 8:07 am 46
I counter your vaguely good news piece with more negative news.
http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCABRE8BC0R820121213
“Canadian households continued to increase their debt load in the third quarter, pushing the debt-to-income ratio to an all-time high of 164.6 from 163.3 in the previous quarter, Statistics Canada said on Thursday.”
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December 13th, 2012 at 8:22 am 47
BillyBob said:
“60% of Canadians to travel over holidays; to spend an average of $563: BMO”
not bad considering all the gloom & doom that you guys talk about it here,”
Umm, yeah… that will pay for an all-day family trip to Mount Seymour to do some tubing including lunch. Wow, that’s what I call splurging on travel alright.
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December 13th, 2012 at 8:53 am 48
CMHC rental vacancy report now includes data on the secondary market.
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2012/2012-12-13-0815.cfm
The rate is suspiciously low for rental condos, leading me to believe it’s a useless metric, especially since I can’t find the methodology in the footnotes. Can someone point out what I’m missing?
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December 13th, 2012 at 9:11 am 49
From Stats Canada’s National balance sheet and financial flow accounts, third quarter 2012:
That first metric (owner’s equity, down to 69.0% in Q3) might be interesting to track. Can anyone spot the history of this on Stats Canada’s website? I couldn’t, at a glance.
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December 13th, 2012 at 9:26 am 50
#47 Vampire,
That’s $563 per person. Also note that in the first 2 weeks of December, there are 20,000 fewer vehicles crossing the Port Mann Bridge alone…so a certain percentage do have $$$$…like they say ” a recession is a depression for some and..”
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December 13th, 2012 at 9:29 am 51
Sort of answering my own question: Ben Rabidoux has a long term graph of the same.
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December 13th, 2012 at 9:46 am 52
The site is still extremely slow
Hard to use…
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December 13th, 2012 at 10:00 am 53
@HAM solo
I suppose it could. At this point it seems unlikely, but we certainly could see a risk-on rally that spills over into housing….but mortgage rules will likely temper any meaningful accumulation of debt in the near term, IMO. And even if I’m wrong, I still think the BoC has other indirect channels through OSFI
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December 13th, 2012 at 11:08 am 54
@the original ugh re CMHC vacancy rates
These will be reported lower. The secondary market has a much higher vacancy rate — 5-7% it not uncommon — however the rental growth is the more interesting thing to track. Purpose built rentals, according to the CMHC survey, have been increasing their rents at a pace faster than inflation over the past decade. This is directly at odds with the CPI rented accommodation measure that shows a decrease in rents in real terms.
I don’t know which one is correct but after talking to some professional property managers I don’t think the CMHC figures are too far off. Housing charges in cooperatives track the CMHC survey closely and the charges are mostly aligned with equivalent rents in their areas.
If there were a super low vacancy rate prevalent in secondary rentals rents would be going off the chart or there would be significantly lower population growth than what we have now. Neither of these are occurring, meaning there isn’t much in the way of a supply shortage of accommodation, only a shortage of cheap accommodation in desirable areas.
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December 13th, 2012 at 11:51 am 55
Hi! Just read painted turtles comments. Yes it is very slow and I have had trouble getting in.
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December 13th, 2012 at 11:55 am 56
Check out the price action on Coast Wholesale Appliances…down over 20% today. Threatening to take out the 2009 lows.
I guess the seller did not get the memo about the soft landing.
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December 13th, 2012 at 12:26 pm 57
Also noted today, just driving to work from North Vancouver that a big dollar store in the Westview plaza has shut down a new For Lease sign. Dollar stores, IMO, are just a sign of the rot anyway, as they tend to take up busted retail leases from previously failing retailers.
I noticed another SFH building lot en route has been fenced up with an incomplete building foundation in situ.
Once at the office, I fielded a call from a newly unemployed financial industry friend. Had been running a venture-type small cap equity fund.
All these things are the kind of things that one tends to see at the beginning of recessions, not at the base of a “soft landing.”
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 13th, 2012 at 12:50 pm 58
@HAM Solo re: TSE:CWA
Vindication of Short’Em ‘s hypothesis? Cratering retail sales prior to the the full RE crash? Or was that someone else’s prediciton?
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December 13th, 2012 at 12:58 pm 59
We’re still optimizing and blocking spammers. We seem to be getting better performance now, but please let us know in the comments here what your experience is looking like. Hopefully we’re away from those 12 second page load times.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 13th, 2012 at 12:59 pm 60
So, HAM Solo, you seem to think you’re seeing a trend here … a store closing down, some guy losing his job, a building project stalled.
These things happen in any economic environment. Maybe the store owner retired. Maybe your friend was no good at his job. Big deal.
By the way, you live close to Westview? Maybe you’re my tenant?!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 13th, 2012 at 1:13 pm 61
@ anon
Why debate me, why not go out and buy some shares of Coast Wholesale Appliances? Seize the day!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 13th, 2012 at 1:18 pm 62
Looks like building materials if CWA is canary in the coal mine. Watch Rona’s Q4 for hints…
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CWA.TO&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=RON.TO
Building materials contraction similar to US Home Depot would be an interesting development.
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December 13th, 2012 at 1:40 pm 63
“Canadians racked up record levels of consumer debt in the third quarter, new figures from Statistics Canada show…Statistics Canada noted that mortgage debt increased relatively more than the value of real estate in the third quarter, leading to a slight decline in the percentage of owner equity relative to the value of real estate.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/12/13/consumer-debt-record.html
It looks like people are still going into more debt which begs the question what will be the next move of F and Carney be. After all the goal of the recent CMHC changes was to reduce debt but it is still going in the wrong direction which means more tightening. Will we see a 10% down payment in the near future?
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December 13th, 2012 at 1:43 pm 64
BillyBob said:
“60% of Canadians to travel over holidays; to spend an average of $563: BMO”
Notice the word in bold font above, BillyBob? Though it is one of the three commonly used modes of central tendency–the median and mode being the other two–the average (mathematical mean) is an information-poor statistic. Here are two factually correct statements:
1) Bill Gates and my average net worth is at least 20 billion USD.
2) Prince William and I have been married to Kate Middleton an average of 0.5 times each.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 13th, 2012 at 2:07 pm 65
@ ReadyToPop
| Yes, you are correct, but wouldn’t they still prefer the 5/35ers profit wise?
Nope. Contrast two people taking out 5 year money: One’s on a 35 year am (has to make a big balloon payment at the end when he gives another mortgage), the other a 5, i.e. he’ll have his mortgage fully paid off at the end of the loan. The duration of the second loan (the weighted average maturity of cash flows) is much less than the first, though the interest rate is the same.
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December 13th, 2012 at 2:28 pm 66
Interesting Article. Everyone seems to be calling a different bottom in the market.
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December 13th, 2012 at 2:45 pm 67
Here’s an updated look at a five-square-block area of Southeast False Creek:
Pinnacle Living False Creek, phase 1 (105 units): more than a year after completion, the developer still has five units listed for sale on the MLS. However, the current price sheet at their sales center shows two townhouses and 10 apartments for sale, exactly the same number as three months ago. In all, there are at least 14 units available for sale from the developer in the building (two ‘penthouse’ units do not appear on the price sheet) at prices ranging from $649,000 to $1,100,000. Units unsold by the developer equals 11% of the building!
Other condo projects underway in Southeast False Creek:
Unsold at Olympic Village: 170
Wall Center False Creek: 557
Residences at West: 488
Pinnacle Living phase 2: 155
Pinnacle Living phase 3: 217
Opsal: 165
Meccanica: 170
Onni 100 Block: 150
Bosa Lido: 173
Onni Central: 324
Total: 2,569
Plus, reliable information that Concert bought a large chunk of property from the City between Quebec Street and the Olympic Village, enough land to build about 600 condos.
So, 3,000 units coming to SE False Creek! No slowdown here. YET!
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December 13th, 2012 at 2:51 pm 68
@RFM
Keep ‘em coming. More they built, harder the crash.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 13th, 2012 at 3:18 pm 69
@HAM Solo
The dollar store near me in Kits closed recently too, and I’ve never seen so many prime retail locations empty for lease on Broadway and 4th.
Recession is definitely coming.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 13th, 2012 at 3:32 pm 70
@admin
I sent you an email with an offer to help. If you are having spam problems you need to add captcha to your anon reply form. I’d also disable voting if you can for non-logged in users. Also, I suspect your voting could be putting a lot of strain on your db if it’s having to count the votes for each post.
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December 13th, 2012 at 3:42 pm 71
I will also weigh in and say I have never seen so many “for rent” signs in front of apartment buildings in Kits.
CWA is a weird stock. Not sure really why it is a listed company, guess they met an ibanker one day. It is mostly owned (about 40%) by the parent holdco anyhow. But cutting the dividend…well the jig is up.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 13th, 2012 at 3:54 pm 72
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December 13th, 2012 at 3:58 pm 73
…..That’s $563 per person. Also note that in the first 2 weeks of December, there are 20,000 fewer vehicles crossing the Port Mann Bridge alone…..”…..
Ya, it’s almost like they put a toll on the bridge or something.
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December 13th, 2012 at 4:11 pm 74
20,000 drivers can’t afford a dollar fifty?
It’s worse than I thought! lol.
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December 13th, 2012 at 4:18 pm 75
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December 13th, 2012 at 4:20 pm 76
Anonymous and Metal Head:
Those stats are from last year and they are the same this year. 20,000 fewer vehicles per day on the Port Mann Bridge in December compared to July.
In my circle, about 15-20% of the people I know are gone out of the country for the Entire month (2nd homes, vacations, etc.) Yes, the entire month! Like I said, about 20% of the population is getting richer while the lower 80% is fighting amongst themselves. It is what it is.
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December 13th, 2012 at 4:55 pm 77
New Listings 88
Price Changes 45
Sold Listings 60
TI:15407
http://www.paulboenisch.com
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:04 pm 78
Actually I think Nordstrom’s announcement of entry into the Cdn market was the canary in the coal mine..large US companies always seem to come into Canada at the top of the market. Think Schwab Canada right before the tech bust.
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:12 pm 79
The growth of debt accumulation in Canada has slowed – and I am talking about consumer not mortgage. It is, however, still growing.
I am thinking it isn’t declining because people just need the credit now to pay the bills. The belief that consumers are putting their finger in the air at the Bank of Canada doesn’t make complete sense. On the mortgage front, yes, I think people are playing poker with the devil. But on the consumer side, not so much – that is at least what my gut is telling me. Obviously consumers are trying to hold on to their way of life before making drastic cuts necessary to begin paying down their debt. But an increasing amount of people seem to be debt dependent. If they had their way they would walk around with an IV drip full of credit, just to get through the day.
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:17 pm 80
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:20 pm 81
I swear I would feel like I was living in a dollhouse if I lived here…
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3476836496.html
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:29 pm 82
I don’t want to make a big deal about December numbers because it is such an inconsequential month, but man these are not strong numbers.
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:38 pm 83
I was on a flight yesterday from YVR… A nice young couple with a 2 year old were seated next to me. An English guy and his Quebecois wife. They were living in North Vancouver but were decamping and moving to Australia… They had enough of Vancouver’s horrible weather, expensive real estate and meagre job market.
Chalk one up for another young family moving out of the BC Lower Mainland.
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:47 pm 84
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:54 pm 85
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:55 pm 86
Chinese miner launches human rights complaint against union
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December 13th, 2012 at 5:58 pm 87
From that bastion of radical marxist analysis known as Reuters:
“In the long buildup to the global financial crisis, households took on debt to offset the gradual fall in their incomes and consumption relative to the more wealthy.
But as they’ll get little or no help from easy credit today, driving wages down even more risks a cratering of household consumption and a severe test of social cohesion…
While the share of U.S. gross domestic product going to wages and salaries has fallen 10 percentage points to about 43 percent since 1970, the slice going to companies in after-tax profits has surged, doubling to 12 percent since 2005 in what HSBC described as “one of the most chilling charts in finance.”
Whether you fear the impact on people’s aspirations and sense of social justice or the sustainability of the corporate world’s inflated share of the pie, the numbers are alarming everyone…
In its annual Global Wage Report, the ILO said the falling share of national output going to workers in the decade before the crisis – a breakdown in the prior link between wages and labour productivity – ended up boosting household debt as workers tried to maintain consumption via ever-easier credit.
Between 1999 and 2011, average labour productivity in developed economies worldwide increased more than twice as much as average wages, the ILO pointed out.
Explanations include technological advancements, de-unionization and rising global trade. But rising stock markets and house prices, financial globalization and lax lending standards also saw household debt becoming a substitute for higher wages as a source of consumption, the ILO said.
“Had falling labour shares of the bottom 99 percent in the United States not been compensated for by debt-led consumption, it is likely that world economic growth would have slowed or halted much earlier,” the report said…
As growth and company earnings continue to splutter across the developed world and in the euro zone in particular, the pressure to rebuild national balance sheets or sustain corporate margins with further pressure on wages is all too clear.
Yet, this time around there will be scant help from the credit world to offset the subsequent hit to relative incomes and consumption. And the social and political consequences of another hit to worker incomes may be all the more acute…
“If competitive wage cuts or wage moderation policies are pursued simultaneously in a large number of countries, competitive gains will cancel out and the regressive effect of global wage cuts on consumption could lead to a worldwide depression of aggregate demand.”"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/12/us-investment-inequality-idUSBRE8BB09620121212
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December 13th, 2012 at 6:14 pm 88
“In my circle, about 15-20% of the people I know are gone out of the country for the Entire month (2nd homes, vacations, etc.) Yes, the entire month! Like I said, about 20% of the population is getting richer while the lower 80% is fighting amongst themselves. It is what it is.”
This sounds awfully NDP. Maybe the 15-20% worked hard, saved money, opened a business or did something to achieve their monetary success. Perhaps they made a ton of sacrifices and gave up a lot to get where they are?
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December 13th, 2012 at 6:24 pm 89
“They do not make more land.”
Well, not really: Just bring in Chinese developers:
http://beforeitsnews.com/media/2012/12/moving-mountains-for-new-chinese-city-2450282.html
Problem solved
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December 13th, 2012 at 6:44 pm 90
Harsh reality darkens B.C. premier’s sunny debt forecasts
That is the Globe and Mail, folks.
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December 13th, 2012 at 6:47 pm 91
@Girlbear
Their kids will have a nice place to live for free when they go to uni as that’s all these lame way houses will be good for down the road “relative housing”. grown up kids and elder parents.
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December 13th, 2012 at 7:34 pm 92
“Maybe the 15-20% worked hard, saved money, opened a business or did something to achieve their monetary success. Perhaps they made a ton of sacrifices and gave up a lot to get where they are?”
Or they are using a HELOC to live above their means. Personally the people I know who live like this are in debt up to their eye balls and will be in the poor house once real estate corrects. Enjoy those vacations while you can.
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December 13th, 2012 at 7:36 pm 93
“That is the Globe and Mail, folks.”
Add a newly elected NDP in 2013 and things really look bleak for the BC economy.
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December 13th, 2012 at 7:36 pm 94
Hey, did McLoser buy his McMansion yet?
When that idiot buys we know the last great fool is aboard.
Looking for 20% down year over year by May 2013. And that’s just the warm up act.
I know you love me. They all do.
xoxoxo
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December 13th, 2012 at 7:37 pm 95
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December 13th, 2012 at 8:17 pm 96
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December 13th, 2012 at 8:40 pm 97
My prescription sunglasses cost about $500 dollars. They are marked up several hundred times due to being subsidized by insurance companies and employers. The Canadian housing market has been subsidized similarly by way of low interest rates and favorable lending practices over the last decade. If prescription glasses ever become exposed to real market forces, the price would plummet. the Canadian housing market will one day lose the benefit of ultra low rates and loose lending standards and will inevitably have to stand on it’s own, within a more harsh, less supportive, exhausted real estate market. Do you think we are living in the midst of a colossal economic boom and the entire country just coincidentally decided to jump into the market? This real estate market has been artificially pumped up and without indefinite support it will inevitably fall back to its proper level, based on real market fundamentals. Nothing can change this, unless the government is willing to support the market forever. What are the odds of that happening?
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December 13th, 2012 at 10:30 pm 98
S&P Lowers credit ratings on six Canadian financial institutions, including BNS, Home Capital Group, Laurentian Bank, National Bank of Canada, as well as credit standards all-stars Central One and Caisse Centrale Desjardins. Party on bears!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/sp-lowers-ratings-on-canadian-financial-institutions/article6351084/
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December 13th, 2012 at 10:30 pm 99
@uh huh
Dude, try http://www.clearlycontacts.ca
My glasses used to cost me north of $500 too. Not anymore.
It’s crazy how internet kills all these value-added services like brick and mortar stores, travel agents, brokerages. Maybe 10 years from now real estate agents will be a historical footnote like milkman.
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December 13th, 2012 at 11:56 pm 100
Zerohedge just posted an interview with Marc Faber. He talks about the Canadian housing bubble at 38:45.
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December 14th, 2012 at 3:30 am 101
“They do not make more land.”
They didn’t make more land since dinosaurs roaming the surface of the earth.
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