Is the boomer wave crashing?

Pacifica Partners has released a new report on the housing market and there’s a write up over at the Globe and Mail.

Anyone still think the housing market’s going to snap back from the weakening trend that has taken hold in the past couple of months? It’s not, so act accordingly. Adjusting our expectations about housing won’t be easy because we’ve seen prices rise dramatically. Canadian Real Estate Association numbers show an average annual price gain of 7.7 per cent over the past 10 years on a national basis.

Aman Bhangu, Pacifica’s vice-president of research, said real estate has performed a lot like stocks did before the twin stock market crashes of the past decade. “At the end of the 1980s and 1990s, you had that mantra of ‘buy and hold, stock markets always go up, just get in there.’ It’s likewise with real estate – ‘real estate always goes up.’”

Mr. Bhangu said that taking a fresh look at the fundamentals supporting the real estate sector suggests prices are overvalued today by one-third, while other estimates call for a price decline of 10 to 25 per cent from current levels. Forecasts like these are educated guesses, whereas the demographic impact on housing is rooted in basic numbers.

It’s worth reading both the original report in full, there’s lots of interesting graphs there.

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
gokou3
Guest
gokou3

Interesting paralell with stock market performance. Anyone still hear about “dollar cost averaging” re: stock investments? That works the best in a mostly-up market.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
It’s too bad we’re having all these issues with the site. Feels like we’re losing the regular traffic. Very interesting Federal Reserve announcement today. Not only is the Fed fixing the price of short money, and then trying to fix the price of longer money through open market purchases, now they are committing to pretty much unlimited money printing to spur enough borrowing to reduce “unemployment” to 6.5%. Not satisfied with targeting the activity level in the economy, they are also directing where that activity should go by specifically buying mortgage bonds, so that it goes into loans for housing. At least so far they are leaving the colour of house paint up to the free market. Personally, I have no idea whether all these price fixing / money printing schemes will work in practice. However, given that the official… Read more »
patriotz
Member
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Soft landing achieved! I guess that explains why this blog has suddenly gone so quiet. Bears stunned into silence.

billy bob
Guest
billy bob

“By announcing that interest rates will stay low until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5%, the Federal Reserve is now unambiguously siding with the country’s unemployed”

rates stay low forever in Canada as well, i am calling housing bottom

RaggedyRenter
Guest
RaggedyRenter

“Bottom call!

Housing market appears to have achieved soft landing: Scotiabank report

Thanks to koozdra at HHV.”

Misleading article title from CTV, the report states “have achieved soft landing THIS FALL”. Further downward pressure on price is still ongoing.

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley

@HAM Solo

Looks like Carney is recommending the same course of action in canada. And england too maybe. Seems we are all have the same game plan – namely the Goldman Sachs reacharound.

G
Guest
G

The difference between Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada is US FED is privately owned bank.

This is how FED works
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrwbgdtbdXE

Goody
Guest
Goody

I’ll be so happy when real estate crashes. You’re friends and relatives will be in financial hell. Unable to craw out from their debt burdens they and their families be torn apart. Their offspring turned into street thugs and prostitutes.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

More like “Federal Reserve [and BoC Carney are] now unambiguously siding with the country’s [job entitled] unemploy[ABLE].”

Watch for the day equity markets decline sharply on Bernanke’s future “dimulus” pledges. Almost there… No market reaction this time.

As for the Boomer Wave Crash, we heard from the nominal village idiot Boomers in the G&M article comments. They don’t believe are tapped out. Evidently they are planning to hold their HELOC’s until the bottom and then sell in bankruptcy to keep their kids from having to sell their ponzi palaces. Good on them for taking responsibility for their kids.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“Bottom call!

Housing market appears to have achieved soft landing: Scotiabank report”

Reading between the lines…. if you own Scotibank stock, sell now!

billy bob
Guest
billy bob

another day another bear call for blood on the streets….i guess life in rented moldy basements have damaging affect ..
bears, enjoy Christmas festivities and indulge in good food & wine..tomorrow is another day

VMD
Member
Richmond Realtor James Wong’s Nov report: “Richmond SFH to suffer most in price erosion. 2013 another difficult year” Inventory: – SFH at 12.2 months of inventory (MOI) SFH > $1.0M: 16.4 MOI SFH > $1.5M: 24.4 MOI – Condos at 9.9 MOI – Town Houses at 8.2 MOI Jan 1st, 2012 Total Inventory (all types) in Richmond: 1655 Projected Jan 1st, 2013 Total Inventory in Richmond: 1950 (+18% YoY) “The absence of home buyers, dampened market sentiment, and tightened lending rules are expected to continue into 2013. The current MOI though better than the past 2 months, will likely be reversed when more new listings hit the market the next few weeks.” “There are no signs of the Government changing or relaxing the current lending directives to Canadian Banks. Richmond’s market for 2013 is expected to have persistently high number… Read more »
painted turtle
Guest
painted turtle

MLS® V977501
A half duplex for 548K in Marpole… not bad, not bad. Getting better anyway.
When it is priced at 400K, MAY BE someone will be interested.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
@ Guy Smiley Thanks for the link. It really is remarkable. I keep thinking about Animal Farm, the George Orwell novel. “Free marketers” in name essentially stampeding private citizens’ capital into all sorts of goofy “investments” in order to keep the average joe busy building things that nobody really needs. We spent 50 years standing up to the Soviets for this? Central banking = central economic planning. Already, retired plumbers who haven’t worked for years, but who bought houses in the 1970’s, are jamming Mexican holiday spots and Alaska cruise ships. Meanwhile, the top qualified young doctors are buried under student loans and are boiling shoe leather to pay for 3 bedroom dumps in East Van. If you subsidize the construction of fishing boats, you destroy the fishery. If you subsidize home construction, you will eventually ruin the building businss.… Read more »
specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

All this chatter about a soft landing being achieved, did they get the memo that the plane is still accelerating forward on the runway? Soon it runs out of land (It’s Vancouver right?) and will be underwater (pun intended). Spring 2013 anyone?

DaMann
Member
DaMann

I still don’t understand how all this endless money printing is not leading to any inflation. Where IS the money going then?

patriotz
Member

“MLS® V977501
A half duplex for 548K in Marpole… not bad, not bad.”

Bad. What appears to be near identical unit in same complex for rent, $1600/month:

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3395719813.html

C.Junta
Guest
C.Junta

#7 Guy Smiley
Thanks for the link. The most popular comment so far is:

“Which cretin employed this utter scum? As a pensioner, I refuse to see my pension withered away by inflation because of some foreign moron.”
KlingonOffTheStarboardBow
Yesterday 03:16 PM

The brits are cheering the new Governor.

RFM
Guest
RFM
Toronto, December 12, 2012 — Moody’s Investors Service has revised the outlook on the Province of British Columbia’s Aaa issuer and debt ratings to negative from stable, affecting approximately CAD39.8 billion in debt securities. RATINGS RATIONALE “The negative outlook reflects Moody’s assessment of the risks to the province’s ability to reverse the recent accumulation in debt with the softened economic outlook, weaker commodity prices and continued expense pressures,” said Moody’s Assistant Vice President Jennifer Wong, lead analyst for the province. In the province’s second quarter report, released in November 2012, the Economic Forecast Council (group of private economic forecasters) revised its forecasts down for provincial growth in 2012 and 2013 to 2.1% and 2.2% from 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively. The slowing in the provincial economy, continued weak natural gas prices and delay in the expected sale of the province’s Little… Read more »
billy bob
Guest
billy bob

headlines tonight, similar one have been for months, years

“Australian stocks extend multi-month highs”
“Japan stocks soar on weaker yen”

bears all BC has to do is to align itself to Asia and the next 100 year growth is secured. Hook up our resources to Asia offer secure retirement for Asian elite and Vancouver is “Monte Carlo” of the West Cost.

mac
Member
mac

Will this post go thru? Dunno. But West (just behind the OV) has broken ground. Soon there will be a total of 14 new condos in the area.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High
DaMann Says: December 12th, 2012 at 3:26 pm I still don’t understand how all this endless money printing is not leading to any inflation. Where IS the money going then? Among other things, it is going into the bond market to make sure that longer term bonds don’t pay anything either. All part of the grand plan I’m afraid. You saved money to buy a home with responsible debt levels? Well, since you didn’t act irresponsibly to overpay with credit, the wisdom among Bernanke and the lot who are allowed to operate the monetary controls is that your savings are the problem with the economy. This lot also believes that if the economy has to throw some obsolete workers out of work that didn’t save a dime, you are to blame. Not only do they want to lower overnight rates,… Read more »
painted turtle
Guest
painted turtle

@billy bob

Living in Monte Carlo (which is, btw, a few km from where I grew up) was NEVER my dream. Far from it, actually: I moved 10,000 km away. Noisy sports cars, casinos, easy/dirty money and expansive whores = not my dream city.

G
Guest
G

Just wonder what kind of ads does everyone else see on the upper left box?? I think they traced what you searched on google?

I see Autowest Infiniti’s ads constantly…

wpDiscuz