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Soft Landing Achieved!

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128 Comments

Good news! Despite all the fearmongering, gloom and forecasts of dismay for the Canadian housing market we can now happily report that our market has achieved what the US housing bubble could not – A SOFT LANDING!

“Despite the klieg-light focus on the Canadian housing market this year, its performance has been far from exciting,” said Mr. Porter.

“It increasingly looks like most major markets are indeed undergoing a policy-induced correction. But, for now, the landing looks to be soft in most cities (with some cities actually still lifting off), with the rather obvious exception of Vancouver.”

As Mr. Porter added in an interview, “I don’t think you can call what’s going on in Vancouver a soft landing anymore.”

.. A bumpy landing then?

Read the full article over at the Globe and Mail.

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Anonymous

“….so let me emphasize……really really really really really sick of the weather……”

Welcome to Vancouver, where it rains 10 months of the year and ‘showers’ for the other two.

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Anonymous

“….want to live downtown because that’s where the action is…..”

I keep forgetting that tenant (sic) of RE badgering along with: ‘there not making any more land on the ground’, ‘the moon is made of cheese and there not making any more cheese’, ‘hemmed in by mountains on one side and people who don’t want to pay more on the other’, ‘how could prices possible stay the same’, ‘buy now or be priced out until later’. etc, etc.

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VMD

“My estimate at the beginning of the month was 1159 REBGV sales. That’s looking a bit optimistic”
– Jesse you’ve gotta exercise caution using words like “optimistic” and “pessimistic” here, it can be confusing ; )
I was just accused of having “a heart filled with darkness” and “unable to see the sun behind the clouds” by a bullish mortgage advisor on a Chinese forum, lol.

Looking forward to the official stats. Too bad the forum’s down right now but we’ll still have a winner of the RE Prediction Contest. Also too bad REBGV don’t tend to publish Year-end total inventory on its Dec stats packages (I guess due to massive year-end expiries) so we can’t get the “official MOI”. We’re probably looking at ~12 MOI by year-end.

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gokou3

Re #121 “Mark it in your calendar: Sunday, February 10, 2013.

The lunisolar calendar new year (aka Chinese New Year).

Apparently local developers and agents are expecting the big bounce-back in demand around then.”

That’s what they expected for 2012. And this is the year of the Dragon too!

Next year will be the year of Snake, damn. Bad feng shui to buy — and even worse to sell.

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Aleksey

#94

“Looks like somebody figured out a way to wank the thumbs up/thumbs down scoring.”

It takes just one jobless guy driving/walking between a bunch of startbucks with wifi.

Unfortunately, there is a way of doing it without even switching wi-fi spots.

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jesse

VMD, from my data, which is sparse and using some crude estimates since paulb was on vacation over that time, I have the first 13 days of December ’10-’11 being 100,87 respectively. The sales on remaining days to equal reported month-end are therefore 75,74. Averaging that means sales for the remaining days are 80% of the first 13 days. This isn’t quite correct because paulb reports slightly higher figures than what REBGV reports, so his numbers would actually be estimated at something like 85% of the first 13 days. We are at 65 sales per day for the first 13 days. The remaining 6 days, at 80% would be 52 sales per day. That would put us at 1151 sales as reported by REBGV. paulb would probably sum to something a bit higher, probably a bit under 1200. To get… Read more »

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604 Receding Gains

Mark it in your calendar: Sunday, February 10, 2013.

The lunisolar calendar new year (aka Chinese New Year).

Apparently local developers and agents are expecting the big bounce-back in demand around then. If they get nothing but crickets at the open house then we’ll see flashes of fear in the eyes of the true believers. We wont have to wait til May.

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painted turtle

BPOM: when you stop posting, I really miss your colourful language.
PC can be so boring 🙂

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Anonymous

Re #109

Go easy on poor BPOM. He is very easily insulted. Like if you suggest he might one of the “less informed”, he gets really hurt and might call you a f***ing douchebag or something like that in return.

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Anonymous

Rob A: “The Olympic village isn’t a typical pre sale.”

I know. It might be one of the better ones after losing 40% (so far). Which dog did you buy?

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Anonymous

New Listing Today!

Almost new cable span bridge. Must sell.

Note: Not usable in winter months

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Anonymous

This is a link to the presentation put on by Lepoidivin (sp?) group in case you missed it earlier this month with Ben R…. It’s the full 1.5hr so get some popcorn first.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pagbjwKJyV4&sns=em

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Rob A.

The Olympic village isn’t a typical pre sale. If this blog was interested in objectivity instead of bear cheer leading posts like that wouldn’t get up voted.

Oh well… most people in Vancouver have already voted with their dollars as to where they stand.

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VHB

Remember–sales lag by 10days to two weeks on average, so sales we are seeing in the numbers today were actually made like 2 weeks ago. It is for that reason that sales the first couple weeks of January are so low–so few actual deals made the last 2 weeks of December.

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Groundhog

Thanks VMD

A chance we see under 1100 sales this December if we see a similar type drop off for the last 6 days. Must be the weather.

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ReadyToPop

@ Best place on meth

Probably people having to sell because of circumstances beyond their control such as a forced career move or maybe they are really really sick of the weather. Patriotz will probably critique something I just said though….so let me emphasize……really really really really really sick of the weather.

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Best place on meth

@Babe

No, I taught my mom and Bob Rennie’s mom taught me.

Why do you give a fuck about the language used on a site frequented (supposedly) by adults?

Would you like me to direct you to a Disney site where the language is more appropriate for you?

If you’re extremely sensitive please let me know and I’ll tone it down.

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VMD

@Groundhog #105
We have 6 Business days left (including Dec 24 & Dec 31 but excluding boxing day)

Last 6 business days of the year:
2010: avg ~75 sales/day (vs ~100/day the previous 6 days)
2011: avg ~55 sales/day (vs ~82/day the previous 6 days)
2012: avg ??? sales/day (vs 59/day the previous 6 days)

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Babe

@Best place on meth
did your mom teach you that language?

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Best place on meth

Who are the 36 assholes who listed their places for sale 5 days before Christmas?

Of all of the 52 weeks available you stupid motherfuckers pick this one?

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Anonymous

“Looks like sfh are in trouble but downtown condos are still doing great. If you had bought a pre sale in 2008 like I said you’d all be doing a lot better.”

Presales are priced way above market to begin with. If you bought a presale in 2008 you would be underwater today. Look no further than the 2008 Olympic Village presale purchasers who have taken about a 40% hair cut. There are buildings that presold in 2006 that can’t even break even if sold today.

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Rob A.

Looks like sfh are in trouble but downtown condos are still doing great. If you had bought a pre sale in 2008 like I said you’d all be doing a lot better.

The simple fact is that the elites of Vancouver want to live downtown because that’s where the action is.

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Groundhog

Yikes, getting ugly. Anyone have the day-to-day sale comparisons for December compared to 2011 and 2010? I imagine they normally probably drop off sharply from here through the holidays, but don’t really have much further room to drop…

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VHB
Dec-2012	
Total days	19
Days elapsed so far	13
Weekends / holidays	6
Days missing	0
Days remaining	6
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	58
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	72
SALES	
Sales so far	841
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	350
Projected month end total	1191
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	1104
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	430
Projected month end total	1534
Sell-list so far	76.2%
Projected month-end sell-list	77.7%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of December 19, 2012	14844
Current MoI at this sales pace	12.46
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Anonymous

“It takes just one jobless guy”

Jobless Guy,i.e. ‘Realtor’.

Ha, ha. I love the smell of unemployed Realtors in the snow.

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