Soft Landing Achieved!

Good news! Despite all the fearmongering, gloom and forecasts of dismay for the Canadian housing market we can now happily report that our market has achieved what the US housing bubble could not – A SOFT LANDING!

“Despite the klieg-light focus on the Canadian housing market this year, its performance has been far from exciting,” said Mr. Porter.

“It increasingly looks like most major markets are indeed undergoing a policy-induced correction. But, for now, the landing looks to be soft in most cities (with some cities actually still lifting off), with the rather obvious exception of Vancouver.”

As Mr. Porter added in an interview, “I don’t think you can call what’s going on in Vancouver a soft landing anymore.”

.. A bumpy landing then?

Read the full article over at the Globe and Mail.

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patriotz
Member
3 years 8 months ago

“It increasingly looks like most major markets are indeed undergoing a policy-induced correction.”

Well Mr. Porter is right in a roundabout way, since corrections are the result of bubbles, and the bubble was induced by government policy.

patriotz
Member
3 years 8 months ago

Realtors blame Flaherty as slump deepens

My previous comment works for this story too.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
3 years 8 months ago

I wonder how any reputable economist can bring out the soft landing theory, when in the history of mankind, there has never been a soft landing after a boom, ever? Wikipedia tells me so. It just boggles my mind that anybody can put this forth as a realistic scenario when apparently, it has never happened! Oh, but I guess Canada is different.

patriotz
Member
3 years 8 months ago

“I wonder how any reputable economist can bring out the soft landing theory”

Do any of these people have an objective definition of “soft landing”? If not, it’s not even a theory.

Bailing in BC
Guest
Bailing in BC
3 years 8 months ago

Perhaps this soft landing is akin to Wylie Coyote going over a cliff. The bumps are him bumping against the rock face as he goes down, painful by not too bad. This of cause says nothing about what happens when he reaches the ground.

Piklishi
Guest
Piklishi
3 years 8 months ago

I think that this is going to be the hardest landing, biggest bubble pop in history. It seems that the economist are so scared and they have so much pressure ATM. Big bubble, huge price drop on RE coming.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
3 years 8 months ago

Good news from Vancouver Island. CTV Victoria;

“2013 Real estate projections downgraded”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hY1mEStEYI

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
3 years 8 months ago

And Ian Watt begging renters to buy:

“The Difference Between Renting & Buying Downtown Vancouver”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLokzWNycLg

N
Guest
N
3 years 8 months ago

“Ms. Gulati noted that national prices would have climbed 3.2 per cent over the year if Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal were factored out.”

Now they need to factor out Montreal too.

elvince
Guest
elvince
3 years 8 months ago

Hmmmm, whenever a bubble pop, the first few steps look like a soft landing. Then it goes on and on and everyone figures out that when you keep losing altitude after you’re below sea level, the landing feels more like a crash.

But in markets where Price/Rents are still between 12 and 18 (it’s the case where I live), we’ll see P/R decrease to 8-10 and call that landing kinda soft.

yvr2zrh
Member
3 years 8 months ago
Ian Watt. I can not believe you have made a rent v. buy computation as rediculous as that on your weekly blog. First you assumed property appreciation, you did not include selling costs, and you did not include any of the other costs of ownership. You did not even note that to rent th equivalent place, your monthly cash flow is actually not less. It does not cost 2,000 to rent a 400,000 place in DT van – more like 1,500-1,700. Wow – I thought he was going to come up with a reason that renting was better. What was… Read more »
jesse
Member
3 years 8 months ago
elvince
Guest
elvince
3 years 8 months ago

“Vancouver, where sales plunged almost 29 per cent in November alone and MLS-measured prices have slipped 4.5 per cent…”

Can anyone tell me how they measure these “sales”? Is it the number of units or a dollar amount? Is the real volume drop 29% or 33.5% ? Either way it’s a lot less commish to go around for realtors, but what’s the real number here?

Iggy
Guest
Iggy
3 years 8 months ago

@N
If they could just factor out all those goals Luongo allowed 2 years ago, the Canucks would have won the Cup! Hey, you can use this factoring out thing for anything. Awesome!!

Bailing in BC
Guest
Bailing in BC
3 years 8 months ago

Ian looked a bit sheepish in that clip. I think even he knows that what he is saying is bull shit.

Iggy
Guest
Iggy
3 years 8 months ago

Hey wait a minute. They told me Real Estate never goes down. That means NO landing. Hard, soft or otherwise.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago

We all know Vancouver prices have been out of whack compared with the rest of the country. But what about the level of activity? Is there any reported measure or comparison of the number of transactions per capita in different markets? Does the 30% drop in activity mean we are suddenly slower than other cities or are we perhaps approaching a normal compared to the rest of Canada?

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop
3 years 8 months ago

Regarding the story posted earlier: “Realtors blame Flaherty as slump deepens”

Flaherty should be credited by the RE industry for the volume of sales over the past few years. Smart agents have probably been storing away their nest eggs.

Might have to get used to it because It’s not just happening here either

Singapore tightens home loan rules

patriotz
Member
3 years 8 months ago

SINGAPORE, Oct 5: Singapore’s central bank on Friday tightened rules on residential property lending amid fears that the city-state’s real estate market could be heading into a dangerous bubble.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in a statement it was imposing a maximum tenure of 35 years for new housing loans with effect from Saturday.

Singapore already has a price/rent exceeding Vancouver. Love those tough new measures to prevent a bubble.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago

This is priceless. A soft landing, just like… erm… The States! Where they had (in mid-2006):

– the majority of economists expecting prices to glide to a soft landing
– falling volumes
– decelerating prices
– cooling of the overheated markets

http://www.forbes.com/2006/08/23/home-prices-sales-cx_jh_0823homes.html

I think I’ve seen this movie before.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago

“…..Smart agents ….”

Oxymoron.

elvince
Guest
elvince
3 years 8 months ago

My definition of soft landing is when prices decrease less than 10%/year (absolute). So, 5 years of 9.99% decrease (and let’s say 2.5% inflation) and you get a soft landing into which every specuvestor has been slaughtered.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago

Re. #21

“”…..Smart agents ….” Oxymoron.”

PaulB?

Anonymous, desperately seeking thumbs up, but unwittingly insulting some of the VIPs of this community.

JR
Guest
JR
3 years 8 months ago

Don’t you have to land first to call it a soft landing? We are at 25,000 ft heading into Las Vegas in the summer.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3
3 years 8 months ago

Re #21

Well actually rarely any agents are dumb. The dummies are the people who believe them and basing their buying/selling decisions from their words.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
3 years 8 months ago
Off topic (sort of): My sister in law has finally agreed to buy out my significant other’s share of their Whistler condo. Sadly, the sale amount is reflective of the value of the condo, which has gone down substantially over the last few years (since the Olympics). Pre-Olympics, the condo was assessed at $400k. These days, similar units are selling for $240k or so. So the amount paid out will be approximately the amount invested in the condo, 10 years ago: $25k. Oh, and that’s ten years of incurring $10k losses every year. Doesn’t matter to me, will be good… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member
3 years 8 months ago
V972084 – 3579 W. King Edward. – – Just saying – – This is demographics at work . . In only 3 months, this larger lot on a main street was reduced and ultimately sold for more than 400K below tax value – – this is a lot value only property. I’m just sayin it but it’s an Old White Person who has owned it forever and longer. This transaction alone will move the benchmark in this slow volume month. There are more in the past few days but this is a typical example. Soft landing? This is “Every man… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member
3 years 8 months ago
So it’s been a while since I poked around in the Whistler sales. Not too many right now after a bit of a “spike” earlier this year. The condo sales are a disaster. In the past few days, 3 big losses on sales. Owners were West Vancouver family, Mexican couple and a random Chinese investor from Hong Kong who bought in 1995. It’s not even worth watching any more. This is a dead market where demographics are seriously against it. Boomers need to sell to finance retirement and will sell the whislter cabin (since kids are gone anyway) before the… Read more »
Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High
3 years 8 months ago
WestJet asks Flaherty “where’s our DB pension extension(bailout)”? http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCABRE8BH12Y20121218 WestJet complains to ministers about Air Canada pension request Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:11pm EST OTTAWA (Reuters) – WestJet Airlines Ltd is concerned about special treatment for its main competitor, Air Canada, which is seeking leniency over a gaping pension fund deficit, and records show that WestJet launched a concerted lobbying campaign with the federal government over pensions. @Patriotz asked how often do public DB pensions need a bail out? Answer: The very next business day, apparently. Yes, artificially inflating the value of something by reducing collateral requirements is the same… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member
3 years 8 months ago

V974584. West Van. Wow – – – Someone else should post details on this one. What happened is anybody’s guess but it’s pretty much 40% off . . . . . .Soft landing?

gah
Guest
gah
3 years 8 months ago

I agree 100% percent with the economists stating that Vancouver has achieved a soft landing – providing the world ends next week as planned.

Blast From The Past
Guest
Blast From The Past
3 years 8 months ago

Still waiting for that rate hike vreaa! It’s only been 3 years…

vreaa Says:
November 25th, 2009 at 9:14 am
It looks like everything is set up for a big rate hike if needed (for instance, a 1% first step), with the BOC, and all the banks, able to say that they very clearly warned everybody.

Blast From The Past
Guest
Blast From The Past
3 years 8 months ago

Might want to brush up on your ‘Fedspeak’ skills pricedoutfornow 😉

pricedoutfornow Says:
May 13th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
I heard the interview with Mark Carney last week, I also read between the lines and it seems that he’s suggesting it’s highly unlikely that they’ll be able to keep interest rates so low for as long as a year.

Blast From The Past
Guest
Blast From The Past
3 years 8 months ago

Was housingsuperbulltime correct or not? You decide 🙂

housingsuperbulltime Says:
May 14th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
One thing is clear and that is you cannot lose by buying a condo in downtown vancouver right now. Here’s some bull facts for you bears:

1) Interest rates at all time lows

2) Networth destruction party was defeated, leading to cautious bulls re-entering the market after getting jitters prior to the election

3) International investors from asia are back spending lots of money in Vancouver after realising that the best place on earth’s economy is largely unaffected by the “recession”

Blast From The Past
Guest
Blast From The Past
3 years 8 months ago
bullshitting is one thing. but patriotz bullshits with such conviction. it has to be admired. looks like you are completely wrong again patriotz. patriotz Says: November 25th, 2009 at 11:19 am @Nero: >I think at some point the CMHC will have to be reined in. My money is on them being forced to reintroduce a price ceiling. Not going to happen as long as we have a “Conservative” minority government. It would be an admission that they had been fueling a housing bubble to try to juice the economy and gain themselves a majority. It would also induce a bust… Read more »
HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 8 months ago

Market up day … and no trolls. Just sayin’

Village Whisperer
Member
Village Whisperer
3 years 8 months ago

yvr2zrh… can you email me with details on the West Van and King Ed sales? village_whisperer@live.ca

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon
3 years 8 months ago

I upvoted Blast From The Past. There is value in checking the accuracy of everyone’s prognostications, whether bear or bull.

But, I don’t think Patriotz’ call was wrong. He said CMHC will not get reined in while we have a Conservative minority. That turned out to be correct. CMHC was reined in after getting a Conservative majority.

G Master
Guest
G Master
3 years 8 months ago

Yeah I like to see more blast from the past

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago

“….management fees, strata fees, property taxes, mortgage interest, utilities, and various expenditures required to maintain one’s spot in the rental pool-new carpets, new tv etc etc….”

And don’t for get the much loved ‘Resort Fees’ which are brutal! Owners get the privilege of paying for all the Resort marketing to bring in tourists so that businesses can stay afloat (which gets tougher every day).

patriotz
Member
3 years 8 months ago

“But, I don’t think Patriotz’ call was wrong.”

Well it was a tiny bit wrong, since we have got a $1million limit – which affects only a few % of properties Canada wide – before the bust has played out.

But being 95+% right on a three year old prediction is not doing too badly IMHO. 🙂

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago
“WestJet asks Flaherty “where’s our DB pension extension(bailout)”?” That’s not what they’re asking. They are objecting to Air Canada being exempted from requirements to keep their DB pension fully funded, which presumably in their view gives AC an unfair competitive advantage. WestJet does not have a DB plan. AC was privatized in 1988. Perhaps the government might be on the hook for pension obligations incurred before then, but given that’s 24 years ago it can’t be very significant compared to AC’s total obligations. AC went through bankruptcy protection and reorganization in 2003 and that was their opportunity to put all… Read more »
Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it
3 years 8 months ago

Yvr2zrh or someone else….curious what the selling price was for the King Ed and W Van places. Both appear to have been listed at $1.5

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it
3 years 8 months ago

I really miss the reply link…I suppose it was removed for security purposes…?

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop
3 years 8 months ago
patriotz Says: Singapore already has a price/rent exceeding Vancouver. Love those tough new measures to prevent a bubble. The tightening in October of home-loan rules, which included capping tenures for all new home loans at 35 years, was the government’s sixth set of market-cooling measures since September 2009. They previously included additional stamp duties for some buyers, with higher levies for foreigners. The government had also raised down-payment requirements and increased land supply for developers. Singapore New Private-Home Sales Fall to 2012 Low in November I wasn’t going to bother including the fact that it’s the sixth set of measures… Read more »
jesse
Member
3 years 8 months ago

“completely wrong again”

I was surprised the CMHC was reined in as it was before the crash started in earnest.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago

patriotz in such denial. Even when the guy is flat out wrong he still can’t except it.

paulb
Member
3 years 8 months ago

New Listings 76
Price Changes 36
Sold Listings 66
TI:14944

http://www.paulboenisch.com

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 8 months ago
Total days	19
Days elapsed so far	12
Weekends / holidays	6
Days missing	0
Days remaining	7
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	61
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	80
SALES	
Sales so far	794
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	427
Projected month end total	1221
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	1068
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	557
Projected month end total	1625
Sell-list so far	74.3%
Projected month-end sell-list	75.1%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of December 18, 2012	14944
Current MoI at this sales pace	12.24

..and MoI limps along, 30% below December norms….

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 8 months ago

..whoops. Meant sell-list 30% below norms; not MoI.

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