Soft Landing Achieved!

Good news! Despite all the fearmongering, gloom and forecasts of dismay for the Canadian housing market we can now happily report that our market has achieved what the US housing bubble could not – A SOFT LANDING!

“Despite the klieg-light focus on the Canadian housing market this year, its performance has been far from exciting,” said Mr. Porter.

“It increasingly looks like most major markets are indeed undergoing a policy-induced correction. But, for now, the landing looks to be soft in most cities (with some cities actually still lifting off), with the rather obvious exception of Vancouver.”

As Mr. Porter added in an interview, “I don’t think you can call what’s going on in Vancouver a soft landing anymore.”

.. A bumpy landing then?

Read the full article over at the Globe and Mail.

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patriotz
Member

“It increasingly looks like most major markets are indeed undergoing a policy-induced correction.”

Well Mr. Porter is right in a roundabout way, since corrections are the result of bubbles, and the bubble was induced by government policy.

patriotz
Member

Realtors blame Flaherty as slump deepens

My previous comment works for this story too.

pricedoutfornow
Guest

I wonder how any reputable economist can bring out the soft landing theory, when in the history of mankind, there has never been a soft landing after a boom, ever? Wikipedia tells me so. It just boggles my mind that anybody can put this forth as a realistic scenario when apparently, it has never happened! Oh, but I guess Canada is different.

patriotz
Member

“I wonder how any reputable economist can bring out the soft landing theory”

Do any of these people have an objective definition of “soft landing”? If not, it’s not even a theory.

Bailing in BC
Guest

Perhaps this soft landing is akin to Wylie Coyote going over a cliff. The bumps are him bumping against the rock face as he goes down, painful by not too bad. This of cause says nothing about what happens when he reaches the ground.

Piklishi
Guest

I think that this is going to be the hardest landing, biggest bubble pop in history. It seems that the economist are so scared and they have so much pressure ATM. Big bubble, huge price drop on RE coming.

southseacompany
Member

Good news from Vancouver Island. CTV Victoria;

“2013 Real estate projections downgraded”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hY1mEStEYI

southseacompany
Member

And Ian Watt begging renters to buy:

“The Difference Between Renting & Buying Downtown Vancouver”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLokzWNycLg

N
Guest

“Ms. Gulati noted that national prices would have climbed 3.2 per cent over the year if Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal were factored out.”

Now they need to factor out Montreal too.

elvince
Guest

Hmmmm, whenever a bubble pop, the first few steps look like a soft landing. Then it goes on and on and everyone figures out that when you keep losing altitude after you’re below sea level, the landing feels more like a crash.

But in markets where Price/Rents are still between 12 and 18 (it’s the case where I live), we’ll see P/R decrease to 8-10 and call that landing kinda soft.

yvr2zrh
Member
Ian Watt. I can not believe you have made a rent v. buy computation as rediculous as that on your weekly blog. First you assumed property appreciation, you did not include selling costs, and you did not include any of the other costs of ownership. You did not even note that to rent th equivalent place, your monthly cash flow is actually not less. It does not cost 2,000 to rent a 400,000 place in DT van – more like 1,500-1,700. Wow – I thought he was going to come up with a reason that renting was better. What was… Read more »
elvince
Guest

“Vancouver, where sales plunged almost 29 per cent in November alone and MLS-measured prices have slipped 4.5 per cent…”

Can anyone tell me how they measure these “sales”? Is it the number of units or a dollar amount? Is the real volume drop 29% or 33.5% ? Either way it’s a lot less commish to go around for realtors, but what’s the real number here?

Iggy
Guest

@N
If they could just factor out all those goals Luongo allowed 2 years ago, the Canucks would have won the Cup! Hey, you can use this factoring out thing for anything. Awesome!!

Bailing in BC
Guest

Ian looked a bit sheepish in that clip. I think even he knows that what he is saying is bull shit.

Iggy
Guest

Hey wait a minute. They told me Real Estate never goes down. That means NO landing. Hard, soft or otherwise.

Anonymous
Guest

We all know Vancouver prices have been out of whack compared with the rest of the country. But what about the level of activity? Is there any reported measure or comparison of the number of transactions per capita in different markets? Does the 30% drop in activity mean we are suddenly slower than other cities or are we perhaps approaching a normal compared to the rest of Canada?

ReadyToPop
Guest

Regarding the story posted earlier: “Realtors blame Flaherty as slump deepens”

Flaherty should be credited by the RE industry for the volume of sales over the past few years. Smart agents have probably been storing away their nest eggs.

Might have to get used to it because It’s not just happening here either

Singapore tightens home loan rules

patriotz
Member

SINGAPORE, Oct 5: Singapore’s central bank on Friday tightened rules on residential property lending amid fears that the city-state’s real estate market could be heading into a dangerous bubble.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in a statement it was imposing a maximum tenure of 35 years for new housing loans with effect from Saturday.

Singapore already has a price/rent exceeding Vancouver. Love those tough new measures to prevent a bubble.

Anonymous
Guest

This is priceless. A soft landing, just like… erm… The States! Where they had (in mid-2006):

– the majority of economists expecting prices to glide to a soft landing
– falling volumes
– decelerating prices
– cooling of the overheated markets

http://www.forbes.com/2006/08/23/home-prices-sales-cx_jh_0823homes.html

I think I’ve seen this movie before.

Anonymous
Guest

“…..Smart agents ….”

Oxymoron.

elvince
Guest

My definition of soft landing is when prices decrease less than 10%/year (absolute). So, 5 years of 9.99% decrease (and let’s say 2.5% inflation) and you get a soft landing into which every specuvestor has been slaughtered.

Anonymous
Guest

Re. #21

“”…..Smart agents ….” Oxymoron.”

PaulB?

Anonymous, desperately seeking thumbs up, but unwittingly insulting some of the VIPs of this community.

JR
Guest

Don’t you have to land first to call it a soft landing? We are at 25,000 ft heading into Las Vegas in the summer.

gokou3
Guest

Re #21

Well actually rarely any agents are dumb. The dummies are the people who believe them and basing their buying/selling decisions from their words.

wpDiscuz