@Jesse “My estimate at the beginning of the month was 1159 REBGV sales. That’s looking a bit optimistic”
– Jesse you’ve gotta exercise caution using words like “optimistic” and “pessimistic” here, it can be confusing ; )
I was just accused of having “a heart filled with darkness” and “unable to see the sun behind the clouds” by a bullish mortgage advisor on a Chinese forum, lol.

Looking forward to the official stats. Too bad the forum’s down right now but we’ll still have a winner of the RE Prediction Contest. Also too bad REBGV don’t tend to publish Year-end total inventory on its Dec stats packages (I guess due to massive year-end expiries) so we can’t get the “official MOI”. We’re probably looking at ~12 MOI by year-end.

VMD, from my data, which is sparse and using some crude estimates since paulb was on vacation over that time, I have the first 13 days of December ’10-’11 being 100,87 respectively. The sales on remaining days to equal reported month-end are therefore 75,74. Averaging that means sales for the remaining days are 80% of the first 13 days. This isn’t quite correct because paulb reports slightly higher figures than what REBGV reports, so his numbers would actually be estimated at something like 85% of the first 13 days. We are at 65 sales per day for the first 13 days. The remaining 6 days, at 80% would be 52 sales per day. That would put us at 1151 sales as reported by REBGV. paulb would probably sum to something a bit higher, probably a bit under 1200. To get… Read more »

Mark it in your calendar: Sunday, February 10, 2013.

The lunisolar calendar new year (aka Chinese New Year).

Apparently local developers and agents are expecting the big bounce-back in demand around then. If they get nothing but crickets at the open house then we’ll see flashes of fear in the eyes of the true believers. We wont have to wait til May.

Remember–sales lag by 10days to two weeks on average, so sales we are seeing in the numbers today were actually made like 2 weeks ago. It is for that reason that sales the first couple weeks of January are so low–so few actual deals made the last 2 weeks of December.

@Babe

No, I taught my mom and Bob Rennie’s mom taught me.

Why do you give a fuck about the language used on a site frequented (supposedly) by adults?

Would you like me to direct you to a Disney site where the language is more appropriate for you?

If you’re extremely sensitive please let me know and I’ll tone it down.

@Groundhog #105
We have 6 Business days left (including Dec 24 & Dec 31 but excluding boxing day)

Last 6 business days of the year:
2010: avg ~75 sales/day (vs ~100/day the previous 6 days)
2011: avg ~55 sales/day (vs ~82/day the previous 6 days)
2012: avg ??? sales/day (vs 59/day the previous 6 days)

Who are the 36 assholes who listed their places for sale 5 days before Christmas?

Of all of the 52 weeks available you stupid motherfuckers pick this one?

Dec-2012	
Total days	19
Days elapsed so far	13
Weekends / holidays	6
Days missing	0
Days remaining	6
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	58
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	72
SALES	
Sales so far	841
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	350
Projected month end total	1191
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	1104
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	430
Projected month end total	1534
Sell-list so far	76.2%
Projected month-end sell-list	77.7%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of December 19, 2012	14844
Current MoI at this sales pace	12.46