Soft Landing Achieved!

Good news! Despite all the fearmongering, gloom and forecasts of dismay for the Canadian housing market we can now happily report that our market has achieved what the US housing bubble could not – A SOFT LANDING!

“Despite the klieg-light focus on the Canadian housing market this year, its performance has been far from exciting,” said Mr. Porter.

“It increasingly looks like most major markets are indeed undergoing a policy-induced correction. But, for now, the landing looks to be soft in most cities (with some cities actually still lifting off), with the rather obvious exception of Vancouver.”

As Mr. Porter added in an interview, “I don’t think you can call what’s going on in Vancouver a soft landing anymore.”

.. A bumpy landing then?

Read the full article over at the Globe and Mail.

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pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
Off topic (sort of): My sister in law has finally agreed to buy out my significant other’s share of their Whistler condo. Sadly, the sale amount is reflective of the value of the condo, which has gone down substantially over the last few years (since the Olympics). Pre-Olympics, the condo was assessed at $400k. These days, similar units are selling for $240k or so. So the amount paid out will be approximately the amount invested in the condo, 10 years ago: $25k. Oh, and that’s ten years of incurring $10k losses every year. Doesn’t matter to me, will be good to get out of this money pit-every month the mortgage must be paid (the rental revenue doesn’t cover the mortgage when you take into account the management fees, strata fees, property taxes, mortgage interest, utilities, and various expenditures required to… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member

V972084 – 3579 W. King Edward. – –

Just saying – – This is demographics at work . . In only 3 months, this larger lot on a main street was reduced and ultimately sold for more than 400K below tax value – – this is a lot value only property. I’m just sayin it but it’s an Old White Person who has owned it forever and longer. This transaction alone will move the benchmark in this slow volume month. There are more in the past few days but this is a typical example.

Soft landing? This is “Every man for himself” – run for the exits or risk having your sale price be 50% off from the peak.

yvr2zrh
Member
So it’s been a while since I poked around in the Whistler sales. Not too many right now after a bit of a “spike” earlier this year. The condo sales are a disaster. In the past few days, 3 big losses on sales. Owners were West Vancouver family, Mexican couple and a random Chinese investor from Hong Kong who bought in 1995. It’s not even worth watching any more. This is a dead market where demographics are seriously against it. Boomers need to sell to finance retirement and will sell the whislter cabin (since kids are gone anyway) before the Vancouver house, young people have no money for their own home let alone a whislter condo, HAM not into skiing generally, USA investors have made money in Whistler on currency gains and this is their best performing asset so they… Read more »
Short'em High
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Short'em High
WestJet asks Flaherty “where’s our DB pension extension(bailout)”? http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCABRE8BH12Y20121218 WestJet complains to ministers about Air Canada pension request Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:11pm EST OTTAWA (Reuters) – WestJet Airlines Ltd is concerned about special treatment for its main competitor, Air Canada, which is seeking leniency over a gaping pension fund deficit, and records show that WestJet launched a concerted lobbying campaign with the federal government over pensions. @Patriotz asked how often do public DB pensions need a bail out? Answer: The very next business day, apparently. Yes, artificially inflating the value of something by reducing collateral requirements is the same as a bailout. I’d like to ask Flaherty where my bailout is too. I’d like to be able to put my wealth in a segregated bankruptcy protected account and then take CMHC backed loans to pay my rent. Then, when… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member

V974584. West Van. Wow – – – Someone else should post details on this one. What happened is anybody’s guess but it’s pretty much 40% off . . . . . .Soft landing?

gah
Guest
gah

I agree 100% percent with the economists stating that Vancouver has achieved a soft landing – providing the world ends next week as planned.

Blast From The Past
Guest
Blast From The Past

Still waiting for that rate hike vreaa! It’s only been 3 years…

vreaa Says:
November 25th, 2009 at 9:14 am
It looks like everything is set up for a big rate hike if needed (for instance, a 1% first step), with the BOC, and all the banks, able to say that they very clearly warned everybody.

Blast From The Past
Guest
Blast From The Past

Might want to brush up on your ‘Fedspeak’ skills pricedoutfornow 😉

pricedoutfornow Says:
May 13th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
I heard the interview with Mark Carney last week, I also read between the lines and it seems that he’s suggesting it’s highly unlikely that they’ll be able to keep interest rates so low for as long as a year.

Blast From The Past
Guest
Blast From The Past

Was housingsuperbulltime correct or not? You decide 🙂

housingsuperbulltime Says:
May 14th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
One thing is clear and that is you cannot lose by buying a condo in downtown vancouver right now. Here’s some bull facts for you bears:

1) Interest rates at all time lows

2) Networth destruction party was defeated, leading to cautious bulls re-entering the market after getting jitters prior to the election

3) International investors from asia are back spending lots of money in Vancouver after realising that the best place on earth’s economy is largely unaffected by the “recession”

Blast From The Past
Guest
Blast From The Past
bullshitting is one thing. but patriotz bullshits with such conviction. it has to be admired. looks like you are completely wrong again patriotz. patriotz Says: November 25th, 2009 at 11:19 am @Nero: >I think at some point the CMHC will have to be reined in. My money is on them being forced to reintroduce a price ceiling. Not going to happen as long as we have a “Conservative” minority government. It would be an admission that they had been fueling a housing bubble to try to juice the economy and gain themselves a majority. It would also induce a bust that the party in power would be blamed for. Look for limits to be introduced after a bust, either sooner by the Liberals if they get back in (they can blame the “Conservatives” for loose lending) or later by the… Read more »
HAM Solo
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HAM Solo

Market up day … and no trolls. Just sayin’

Village Whisperer
Member
Village Whisperer

yvr2zrh… can you email me with details on the West Van and King Ed sales? village_whisperer@live.ca

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon

I upvoted Blast From The Past. There is value in checking the accuracy of everyone’s prognostications, whether bear or bull.

But, I don’t think Patriotz’ call was wrong. He said CMHC will not get reined in while we have a Conservative minority. That turned out to be correct. CMHC was reined in after getting a Conservative majority.

G Master
Guest
G Master

Yeah I like to see more blast from the past

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“….management fees, strata fees, property taxes, mortgage interest, utilities, and various expenditures required to maintain one’s spot in the rental pool-new carpets, new tv etc etc….”

And don’t for get the much loved ‘Resort Fees’ which are brutal! Owners get the privilege of paying for all the Resort marketing to bring in tourists so that businesses can stay afloat (which gets tougher every day).

patriotz
Member

“But, I don’t think Patriotz’ call was wrong.”

Well it was a tiny bit wrong, since we have got a $1million limit – which affects only a few % of properties Canada wide – before the bust has played out.

But being 95+% right on a three year old prediction is not doing too badly IMHO. 🙂

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“WestJet asks Flaherty “where’s our DB pension extension(bailout)”?”

That’s not what they’re asking. They are objecting to Air Canada being exempted from requirements to keep their DB pension fully funded, which presumably in their view gives AC an unfair competitive advantage. WestJet does not have a DB plan.

AC was privatized in 1988. Perhaps the government might be on the hook for pension obligations incurred before then, but given that’s 24 years ago it can’t be very significant compared to AC’s total obligations.

AC went through bankruptcy protection and reorganization in 2003 and that was their opportunity to put all their obligations to employees on the table.

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it

Yvr2zrh or someone else….curious what the selling price was for the King Ed and W Van places. Both appear to have been listed at $1.5

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it

I really miss the reply link…I suppose it was removed for security purposes…?

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop

patriotz Says:

Singapore already has a price/rent exceeding Vancouver. Love those tough new measures to prevent a bubble.

The tightening in October of home-loan rules, which included capping tenures for all new home loans at 35 years, was the government’s sixth set of market-cooling measures since September 2009. They previously included additional stamp duties for some buyers, with higher levies for foreigners. The government had also raised down-payment requirements and increased land supply for developers.

Singapore New Private-Home Sales Fall to 2012 Low in November

I wasn’t going to bother including the fact that it’s the sixth set of measures over there but here’s some context for Patriotz and anyone else here….RTP

jesse
Member

“completely wrong again”

I was surprised the CMHC was reined in as it was before the crash started in earnest.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

patriotz in such denial. Even when the guy is flat out wrong he still can’t except it.

paulb
Member

New Listings 76
Price Changes 36
Sold Listings 66
TI:14944

http://www.paulboenisch.com

VHB
Member
VHB
Total days	19
Days elapsed so far	12
Weekends / holidays	6
Days missing	0
Days remaining	7
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	61
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	80
SALES	
Sales so far	794
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	427
Projected month end total	1221
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	1068
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	557
Projected month end total	1625
Sell-list so far	74.3%
Projected month-end sell-list	75.1%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of December 18, 2012	14944
Current MoI at this sales pace	12.24

..and MoI limps along, 30% below December norms….

VHB
Member
VHB

..whoops. Meant sell-list 30% below norms; not MoI.