A Visit from St. Adam
Twas the night before Christmas, and inside his house
The homedebtor was sitting clicking his mouse
He’d been using the house as his own ATM
But the bank had just told him that this had to end
Asking for reasons on the internet boards
He got only insults from the bearish hordes
Then a knock on the door got his attention
“Let me in” a voice said, “I can answer your question”
He opened the door and was suprised to find
A man from the past, of most renowned mind
“Your house is only a place to live
Why do you think it has more to give?
A sheep bears wool, a cow bears milk
The lowly worm gives forth silk
But your house produces nothing to sell
It can’t make you rich, hear me well”
The homedebtor pondered this simple lesson
From the father of the dismal profession
And the man spoke out as he walked from sight
“Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night”
-~=+=~-
“The stock that is laid out in a house, if it is to be the dwelling-house of the proprietor, ceases from that moment to serve in the function of a capital, or to afford any revenue to its owner. A dwelling-house, as such, contributes nothing to the revenue of its inhabitant; and though it is, no doubt, extremely useful to him, it is as his clothes and household furniture are useful to him, which, however, makes a part of his expence, and not of his revenue.
If it is to be let to a tenant for rent, as the house itself can produce nothing, the tenant must always pay the rent out of some other revenue which he derives either from labour, or stock, or land. Though a house, therefore, may yield a revenue to its proprietor, and thereby serve in the function of a capital to him, it cannot yield any to the public, nor serve in the function of a capital to it, and the revenue of the whole body of the people can never be in the smallest degree increased by it.”
- Adam Smith, “The Wealth of Nations”, 1776
Merry Christmas everyone.
December 22nd, 2012 at 6:07 am 1
The world didn’t end. Yay!
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December 22nd, 2012 at 7:48 am 2
Shaky foundations: How Ottawa’s computers get Canadian home prices wrong
Dec. 22 2012, 8:54 AM EST
Starting with this story, The Globe and Mail examines the foundation of Canada’s historic real-estate boom in a series.
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December 24th, 2012 at 10:46 am 3
Thanks to Patriotz for adding some custom seasonal content to the site, and to everyone else who has contributed content, comments and data here.
And a big thanks to Paulb who has provided us with daily market stats for a long time. We’ve added a ‘thanks’ banner to the right hand side bar that links to his site. If you’re looking to buy or sell real estate you’d have a hard time finding someone who is so dedicated to transparency. Congrats on the new kid Paul, and if you want to make a custom graphic (180 x 180) we’ll post that in place of the one that we have now.
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas everyone!
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December 24th, 2012 at 11:05 am 4
Happy holidays all! It’s been a particularly interesting year to hang around this corner of the blog world (including vancouverpricedrop, VREAA, housing-analysis, fishyre, theeconomicanalyst, and apologies to whoever I’ve forgotten) and I expect the same from 2013. Congrats, Paul; thanks to everyone for the continuing analysis and commentary.
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December 24th, 2012 at 11:55 am 5
We wish you a Beary Christmas,
We wish you a Beary Christmas,
We wish you a Beary Christmas,
And a sensible New Year!
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December 24th, 2012 at 1:25 pm 6
Merry Chistmas to all.
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December 24th, 2012 at 1:53 pm 7
@jesse: By the way, I hacked together a colourmap version of your correlation scatter plot. Black is oldest, red is newest.
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December 24th, 2012 at 4:09 pm 8
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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December 24th, 2012 at 5:13 pm 9
I want to wish all the bulls and bears contributing to VCI a Merry Christmas. Thanks all for your contributions, it makes this blog very unique and special.
Cheers,
Makaya in frigid Winnipeg
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December 24th, 2012 at 6:50 pm 10
@ Anonymous
I would love to see you making loads of money……selling cheaper real estate!
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December 24th, 2012 at 7:03 pm 11
@anon
You making 100k+ selling condos is only good times for you, not for the economy. If people purchased those condos with debt they just spent future consumption today. In other words, today’s condo flogging stole GDP from the economy of the future.
Also remember, that granite counter tops and stainless steel provide no enhancements to productivity. Although we can both agree that they look nice and shiny.
If you are lamening the loss of your past success, please don’t, especially on Christmas. Instead, view it as success that was not lost, but rather success that you never should have earned to begin with.
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December 24th, 2012 at 8:39 pm 12
Price drop:
after 176 days on the market, this $12,880,000 (?!) property now asking for $9,980,000, a $2.9 million drop (22.5%):
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V960623&REBoards=All&From=MLS
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December 24th, 2012 at 11:14 pm 13
Anonymous #7,
“I used to make over 100k a year in the good time and now it’s a struggle to cover the bills with sales being so low…”
Karma’s a bitch, ain’t she?
When you’re in sales, you can’t assume 100K is what you’re worth. Your nice smile and great golf handicap are not worth six figures.
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December 24th, 2012 at 11:45 pm 14
Merry Xmas to everyone here! Thanks for helping me keep sane over the last few years!
FYI, been noticing the rental ads on CL are starting to get a lot more desperate…ie: “move in now one month free”, “free internet and cable for a year” “CALL NOW” type posts. So much for the lack of supply.
Feliz Navidad.
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December 25th, 2012 at 2:48 am 15
Spoke with a friend, one of those police officers that with overtime makes 200k a year, … anywho, he was bullish on real estate and would make fun of renters, he has no understanding of economics but has everything figured out… one of those types.
Well to my disbelief, he said that even he wants to sell his place and rent for a year before buying again
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December 25th, 2012 at 8:53 am 16
My heartfelt thanks to those who regularly contribute here. I have faithfully read this blog for years, and I have found it immensely educational, as well as entertaining. Please do not stop! Merry Christmas!!!
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December 25th, 2012 at 9:43 am 17
Ditto on enjoying the comments of most who post here.
Merry Christmas!
(Belated) Happy Hanukkah!
Happy Winter Solstice!
Happy Festivus! When can we resume of airing of grievances?
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December 25th, 2012 at 10:48 am 18
Merry Christmas to the VCI admin and contributors who supply such a wealth of information. I try to pitch in where I can but I dont have the time nor the smarts/ability that so many of you do. Thanks to all for providing a sane outlet for understanding an insane RE market!
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December 25th, 2012 at 10:50 am 19
While we can agree most people who bought 1 or 2 years ago is losing money today if they sold (taking about 7% transaction cost into consideration), I know people who bought years ago and are either having problems selling today or have lost money.
One guy bought 10 years ago but an assessment of $90,000 wiped out all of his gains.
Another bought 5 years ago and can’t get an offer more than what he paid in 2007. On top of that, he put about $30,000 of renovations into the place over the past 5 years.
Last guy made money (paper gains) on two consecutive pre-sale condo flips. One in 2004 and another in 2005. Only to have all of his profits rolled into yet another pre-sale that he moved into in 2008. Now that last condo is worth less than his 2008 price.
What happened? I thought everyone makes money off real estate?
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December 25th, 2012 at 10:53 am 20
Admin:
Thanks so much for the banner and the kind words!
What a Christmas surprise it was to login and read your post. The banner looks great and your support really means a lot.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and all the VCI members!!
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December 25th, 2012 at 11:23 am 21
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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December 25th, 2012 at 11:53 am 22
@ #19: “Only to have all of his profits rolled into yet another pre-sale that he moved into in 2008. ”
That’s the fate of most speulators. It takes a very disciplined gambler to walk away from the table when s/he is up. Most don’t leave until they’ve spend their last dollar.
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December 25th, 2012 at 1:02 pm 23
@ #21 Bull Bull Bull
I’m looking forward to a few more years hearing from sane investors and recent sellers on this blog until such time that the correction has run its course and this blog will have served it’s purpose.
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December 25th, 2012 at 2:24 pm 24
More price drop:
Listed on May 4, 2012 for $10,380,000. Now for $7,990,000, a 23% drop.
http://www.julialau.ca/Properties.php/Details/491
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December 25th, 2012 at 2:49 pm 25
Special thanks to: jesse, patriotz, paulb, VMD, Makya, oneangry slav, bestplace onmeth, unagidon, many franks, guy smiley, VHB, ham solo, vote down the facrs, and pope for filling and maintaining this blog. I think I got most of the regulars but I am sure I missed a number as well
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December 25th, 2012 at 3:34 pm 26
Definitely thanks to Paul Boenisch for being so consistent in producing the daily numbers. It may not sound like much but he has enabled us to predict market behaviour weeks in advance of official releases. I believe daily number releases has shown it theroretically possible for policymakers to be more reactive to how housing markets are behaving, and has allowed those who are invested in accurately predicting future domestic output due to housing market strengths and weaknesses to set up their trades a bit more in advance than others.
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December 25th, 2012 at 4:29 pm 27
Flat is the new Down. Who woud have thought?
The latest Christmas comedy, courtesy of Global, featuring Yuk Yuk’s favorite comedian Cam Muir…
http://youtu.be/rKiEnURr_Lg
And here is some honey for the Bears…
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver_chart.html
Merry Christmas (again)!
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December 25th, 2012 at 6:27 pm 28
Dec. 24th stats.
Sold: 0
Price Changes: 10
New Listings: 11
Hot debate. What do you think?
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December 25th, 2012 at 6:36 pm 29
This never happens:
http://thezikomoletter.com/2012/10/31/this-never-happens/
“Exponential acceleration in the direction of a trend is never followed by stabilization at a new plateau. It does not matter if the chart represents Gold futures, or house prices, or population levels: extreme moves are followed by collapses, not by plateaus.”
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December 25th, 2012 at 7:48 pm 30
On Julia Lau’s website it says…
“Sell your property in less than 30 days!
I have wealthy buyers waiting to buy your property.”
Having the $7.99M property listed for nearly 8 months and a 23% price drop would be a #fail.
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December 25th, 2012 at 9:14 pm 31
#25 Real Prefessional. Nice work with your list of recognition, but did you have to include ‘Vote Down The Facts’?…I’ve never seen so many useless, counter-productive, nitpicking post in all my life.
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December 25th, 2012 at 9:30 pm 32
Christmas story: Neighbour has had place on westside listed forever…at least 8-9 months. Had been holding firm on her price. About a month ago she told me she was taking it off the market and waiting for spring “when things would rebound”. Ran into her about a week after that convo and she said she had decided to take a lower offer afterall and had sold it because her friends had told her to take the money and run. (Incidently the lower bid was still very reasonable in my opinion and a mere 10% off ask). Anyhoooo, that bid fell through due to financing problems (surprise). So she left it on market until a few days ago when she finally DELISTED it. So I guess she is back to hoping for the spring-time action.
Poor realtor was doing open houses for the entire day both days of the weekend for months and months. It must have been his only listing.
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December 25th, 2012 at 9:31 pm 33
Merry Christmas etc. to all!
If I could create a utopian society it would consist almost entirely of posters on this blog…spare a few.
Cheers!
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December 25th, 2012 at 10:20 pm 34
In an expensive city, realtors (the top 1%? of the 11,000 in BC) can make a good living, even in a slow market:
Month (2012) sales Listing Price
Jan. 0
Feb. 1 1,980,000
Mar. 2 1,399,000 and 1,250,000
Apr. 1 2,568,000
May 0
Jun. 2 7,999,000 and 548,000
Jul. 1 2,490,000
Aug. 0
Sep. 0
Oct. 0
Nov. 1 6,388,000
Dec. 1 5,900,000
I guess this Vancouver west side realtor made more than $500,000 in 2012, better than most of the doctors.
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December 26th, 2012 at 12:01 am 35
[...] Jay posted a couple of recent discounts in the Vancouver real estate market, and boy do we have some deals for you. [...]
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December 26th, 2012 at 9:11 am 36
Don’t worry, corrupt Chinese officials and super-fat and crooked businessmen affiliated with the party elites ,are now trying to tranfer their loot from the dying Nation,China, to oversea before the sky falling.Canada is the major reservoir for this massive loot,which has never seen in 5000 years of human history.Even the new Party Boss’s sister are living in English Bay,Vancouver BC
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