Vancouver Condo Info

146 Responses to “FFFA! Bulls, bears & banter. Farewell 2012!”

painted turtle Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 12:23 am 1

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/12/27/dear-first-time-homebuyer-ottawa-wants-you-to-tread-carefully/?__lsa=3e81-40eb

Dear first-time homebuyer: Ottawa wants you to tread carefully
Your government is increasingly worried about you getting into the housing market, if you haven’t figured it out by now.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 31  0

Makaya Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 8:39 am 2

Bulls can rest assured, the market is not going to crash…

Why the housing market won’t crash in 2013

The 12-month change in the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index has decelerated in recent months to 3.4 per cent, led by declines in Vancouver (-1.4 per cent) and Victoria (-1.7 per cent). Some people interpret this weakness as a sign that a housing crash has started – see, for example, the Canadian Business article “Canada’s housing crash begins.” I don’t see a collapse in 2013 for several reasons. One is the highly supportive monetary environment.

I will spare you the rest of the article. Here are the “several reasons” given by the author of that article:
#1: “Monetary policies are hyper-expansionary, with interest rates at record lows and printing presses running like never before.”

#2:”with so much monetary stimulus in the system, the price-to-income ratio should also be normalized by income increases.”

#3: “There are other reasons for expecting a crash to be a no-show in 2013. Suffice it to say that the monetary cycle suggests a soft-landing scenario. ”

One word: lol!

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 41  2

patriotz Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 8:51 am 3

They (the federal government) simply wanted to avoid setting up a scenario where they were an accessory to a crime, if you will, by enticing the unsophisticated or younger home buyer into a large asset purchase where if interest rates rose they could not meet their obligations,” said Mr. Soper

Sort of sums up the article. Of course the federal government has been doing exactly what Mr. Soper claims it now wants to “avoid”.

This article is just another in a series from the FP which pretends that the Cons are acting to “prevent” a bubble when they created it in the first place.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 29  4

Anonymous Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 9:22 am 4

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

….which pretends that the Cons are acting to “prevent” a bubble when they created it in the first place….

Yes, if only we had a good NDP government; they would have done things differently. Barf.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 11  21

specialfx3000 Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 9:33 am 5

Farewell 2012 as we welcome 2013 and the new assessments shortly.

Things will get interesting as I have read quite a bit recently around selling x percent below assessment vs. the often absurd asking price.

So, imagine a west side house that is currently assessed at $4M. With the recent slump, similar houses likely would have been sold recently in the $3.2 to 3.5M range.

Now when new assessments come out, will this house be assessed at around $3.4M?

With high inventory and low sales likely to continue, sellers will need to up their game, or lower their prices to compete.

With buyers bringing their freshly printed assessment numbers to the open house and offering 20% lower (or worse), we’re now at the 2.8M range.

So the house that was recently assessed at $4M now goes at $2.8 early 2012. (And it gets worst from there).

Obviously above numbers are all made up but it is probably going to be quite close to reality. We’ll have to wait and see. Please pass the popcorn.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 22  0

Anonymous Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 9:44 am 6

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

2004-2012 marked 8 years of bears being silly …and counting. Happy 2013 and may the new year bring you back from dreaming to reality. Another 4% rent increase is in the book unless you are locked in or having generous landlords.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 3  25

yvrness Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 9:47 am 7

specialfx: assesments are done in the middle of the year, which means they’ll be higher than current selling prices. Basically anything that sells now will be ‘below assessed value!’.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 21  0

UBC in Crisis Mode Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:01 am 8

specialfx3000 Says:
“With buyers bringing their freshly printed assessment numbers to the open house and offering 20% lower (or worse), we’re now at the 2.8M range.”

The problem is that there are very few buyers who can afford 2 M price, Yes, compared to 4 M it is a bargain. Unless more foreign buyers with ship load of cash (Not going to happen) come ashore, Vancouver’s housing market will crash.

Repeat: there is no soft landing. crash = hard landing

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 43  1

specialfx3000 Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:10 am 9

thanks yvrness, I didn’t know that.

Nonetheless, the next assessment will likely be lower than the previous one and with assessment being the starting price to that many people are working from, right off the bat, the price will dropped.

Over the 10 years or so, each year’s increase in assessment had helped the roller coaster ramp upwards; well it’ll be just as effective on it’s way down.

Like or Dislike: 7  1

Anonymous Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:19 am 10

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

Re. #2

“Lol”? That’s your argument?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJjZ7Z05f5c

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 2  11

gokou3 Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:30 am 11

Re: #9 specialfx3000

I am not sure if the coming assessment values will be considerably lower than the current one. Like someone else mentioned, the assessments were done back in July. Even though the market was already weak, I don’t think it was showing broad yoy declines yet. I think assessment value trends generally lag the market. OTOH, the values shown in Jan. 2014 will probably show considerable decline.

Hot debate. What do you think? 12  1

Many Franks Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:34 am 12

@Makaya: More from Larry MacDonald e.g. here, where he tut-tuts all of the concern about demographics and housing by finding and bludgeoning a false dilemma to death.

Hot debate. What do you think? 11  0

Ray Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 12:23 pm 13

Five mortgage market predictions for 2013

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/five-mortgage-market-predictions-for-2013/article6198466/

I agree with them all, except that rents will increase. With no capital gains expectation, those holding empty their investment property will certainly start to rent — increased supply. And for every new renter that was foreclosed on, there is always a bank-owned house left sitting. Sure, the bank might hold it in shadow inventory like the USA, but that can only go on for so long.

Hot debate. What do you think? 18  0

Dumbest time in 30 years to buy RE Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 12:39 pm 14

This market does not need excuses like assessment to drive it down. It will do so all on it’s own, thank you very much.
We have never had more negative warnings from respected ecomomists (sorry Tsur), not even in 2008. Downsizing boomers will be anxious to bail before it’s too late, and it will take a long time for China money to go anywhere near BC. Bargains in the US would look much more appealing for any dwindling spare cash from Asia.

Nor will continued rates be able to save the market, and god help first timers who got sucked into the hype if there is even a hint of higher rates. It has never been more obvious that the jig’s up.
It will be the worst time in 31 years to buy RE.

Nor does the market need political warnings to help grease the skids.
Such comments are not only irrelevant, they’re irritating.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 31  1

Crikey Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 12:55 pm 15

No, the 2013 assessment will not reflect current markets conditions. Current market sentiment, fall in sale prices, was barely getting started in July 2012.

Also, Makaya paraphrased:
#1: “Monetary policies are hyper-expansionary, with interest rates at record lows and printing presses running like never before.”
#2:”with so much monetary stimulus in the system, the price-to-income ratio should also be normalized by income increases.”

Low interest rates and income increases essentially have a lot of difficulty co-existing.
If everybody’s incomes increase measurably, many prices will go up to compensate. That means inflation. And how does the goverment fight inflation? By raising interest rates, of course.

No matter how you look at it, Vancouver prices are doomed for the next couple of years. The only thing that could possible help is if the feds open the floodgates to more foreign investment, and even then it not guarantee a reversal.

Hot debate. What do you think? 20  1

painted turtle Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 12:56 pm 16

Think twice before buying cheap decorations:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/12/27/chinese-forced-labour-halloween-julie-keith_n_2370175.html?ncid=GEP

Like or Dislike: 6  3

VMD Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 1:16 pm 17

New proposed regulatory changes to Canada’s international students program announced today.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/releases/2012/2012-12-28.asp?utm_source=bitly-eng&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=generic
#1. Limit study permits to students attending designated institutions.
#2. Can work part-time off-campus
#3. CIC to have authority to verify current enrollment. (“Intent to study” no longer sufficient)

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 30  1

patriotz Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 1:53 pm 18

“there is always a bank-owned house left sitting. Sure, the bank might hold it in shadow inventory like the USA”

Nope, the incentive for the banks in Canada is to do the opposite. They have to sell the properties before they can make a claim to CMHC to get their principal back.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 23  0

Yalie Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 2:01 pm 19

Nope, the incentive for the banks in Canada is to do the opposite. They have to sell the properties before they can make a claim to CMHC to get their principal back.

And they’ve already demonstrated a willingness to drop prices aggressively to do just that. Have a look at “#2″ on the Vancouver price drop blog:

https://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2012/11/27/the-weekly-drop-november-26-2012/

This bank-owned property has been reducing its price by about 20k exactly once a month. They want to look like they’re making a best effort to get “market price”, while also making sure they hit the bid as soon as possible. I think we’ll be seeing a lot more of this kind of price action in the coming years.

Hot debate. What do you think? 19  0

HAM Solo Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 2:02 pm 20

New Years wishes for 2013:

1 (For OSFI) Please make this the year when you stop being cheerleaders for ponzi schemes and start opening up the covers on the country’s shameless and seriously undercapitalized shadow-banking system.

2. (For the Minister of Finance) Tellingly, you asked recently whether the government should be in the business of guaranteeing repayment of bank loans. Make this year count, F, and make banks be banks rather than government subsidized loan brokers.

3. (For RE Pumpers) It’s time to melt into little oil slicks, but be ready to return in 100 years.

4. (For the great unwashed) Enjoy that HELOC-funded Christmas break in Cabo while you still can. Next time you’re at a resort, you’ll be working there.

5. (For VCI-ers) Keep telling the truth, living within your means, and trying to salvage what you can of this over-indebted crazyhouse we call Vancouver.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 35  0

HAM Solo Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 2:06 pm 21

BTW, I didn’t add that hyperlink to the consumer credit site. I’ve been hacked.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

oneangryslav2 Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 3:05 pm 22

I would like to run some simulations, under a series of varying accompanying conditions, projecting the potential trajectory of sales, listings, and prices for greater Vancouver (broken down by municipality). In order to do so, I would like to have data such as those that can be found in the data tables of the monthly REBGV reports (see the link below) in an Excel (or txt) file. Before I start compiling the data myself, I wonder if there is somebody (or somebodies) already compiling a file of this type.

TIA

Like or Dislike: 0  0

oneangryslav2 Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 3:05 pm 23

Quick trigger finger. Here’s the link: http://www.hellovancity.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/REBGV-Stats-November-2012.pdf

Like or Dislike: 2  0

admin Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 3:25 pm 24

HamSolo: What link to a consumer credit site are you talking about? I only see the two posts from you in this thread and I see no link to any sites in them.

Like or Dislike: 8  0

Anonymous Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 3:28 pm 25

….Think twice before buying cheap decorations:….

Shouldn’t we be buying more cheap decorations to help these folks get their notes out?

Like or Dislike: 1  2

HAM Solo Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 3:33 pm 26

@ admin

The word “loan” near the end of pt. 2 in the post shows up as hyperlinked text on my PC. Sends me to a no-problemo auto loan site. Might just relate to gremlins on my PC as opposed to VCI.

Like or Dislike: 5  0

Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 3:42 pm 27

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

Once again VMD delivers real info to the blog. His info puts to shame the arm chair economic commentary and pretty but useless graphs some think pass for real info.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 1  16

admin Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 3:51 pm 28

HamSolo: I don’t see it here, but if anyone else sees it let us know. you might want to run a virus check on your computer.

Like or Dislike: 4  0

yvrness Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 3:52 pm 29

What’s going on over at http://vancouverpeak.com ? I see there’s a new forum there now – any news?

Like or Dislike: 4  0

VMD Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 4:08 pm 30

@bull #27
Time for my own armchair predictions for today’s stats:
Sales 40-50. Yesterdays jump in sales probably has something to do with realtors/MLS staff taking Dec 24-26 off, only to post all sales since last weekend on MLS yesterday.

1 more business day until listings floodgates open in 2013!

Hot debate. What do you think? 20  7

Crasher Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 4:13 pm 31

Just finished watching BNN Market Call Tonight with James Hodgins.
He’s the chief investment officer with Curvature Hedge Strategies.

He thinks the overall canadian real estate market will drop 20% to 30%, but he expects a 40% drop for Vancouver.

He is actually shorting Canadian mortgage companies like Genworth. This is not some blogger exaggerating just to make a point, but a professional puting his money where his mouth is as well as his clients money.
He firmly believes that real estate related industries will drag us into recession in the second half of 2013.
I think we saw this movie before in the US in 2006 and 2007.

I also think that we will be talking about 2013 for years to come, probably decades.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 57  2

Troll Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 4:30 pm 32

@VMD 84 sales so far today.

Hot debate. What do you think? 9  2

VMD Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 4:59 pm 33

G&M: CMHC must stay in government hands
bit.ly/Wa7Y4o

Hot debate. What do you think? 5  5

patriotz Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 5:10 pm 34

Third, and most important, the taxpayer would remain on the hook. Even if CMHC is private, the government would still pick up the tab if it goes bust. The private insurers simply resell their government guarantee and tack on a profit margin. Privatizing CMHC just creates another layer while the government remains the ultimate insurer.

That’s all you need to read. As I’ve said myself, any CMHC “privatisation” would just be a smokescreen to hide a government bailout.

The rest of the article ranges from obtuse to wrong. The author thinks it would be a good thing to try to maintain RE prices as high as possible for as long as possible. It wouldn’t.

Hot debate. What do you think? 12  6

Village Whisperer Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 6:18 pm 35

I see Tsur and Cameron have teamed up again in the Vancouver Sun to tell people prices aren’t coming down next year so you might as well buy now.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/Vancouver+real+estate+buyers+waiting+price+collapse/7754204/story.html?

This is the second time they have pounded this drum. You can almost smell the desperation as the Spring market approaches.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 35  1

G Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 6:27 pm 36

@Village Whisperer

The problem is Vancouver Sun, not Tsur nor Cameron. Vancouver Sun chooses how to write their stories and pick who to quote from.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 36  1

ReadyToPop Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 6:40 pm 37

The guidelines will essentially focus on the steps that mortgage insurers should take to prevent taking too much risk while insuring mortgages of home owners. According to Ms. Dickson, the housing market in Canada is continuously growing along with an increase in the household debt. Therefore, such measures need to be taken to prevent the looming debt burden on the economy and to remind creditors of their duties towards their lenders.

New Mortgage Insurance Guidelines Set to be Released in 2013 will Further Tighten the Real Estate Market

Like or Dislike: 7  2

paulb Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 7:20 pm 38

New Listings 42
Price Changes 39
Sold Listings 90
TI:14226

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 64  0

pricedoutfornow Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 7:44 pm 39

Was at the gym today, eavesdropped on two boomers having a conversation beside me. Buddy bought a 700 sq ft condo near the Olympic Village for $650k, due to be completed in 2014. Owns a house in New West, “hopes” he’ll be able to sell it to make the move. Says that area around the Olympic Village is “booming!” (is it? haven’t been down there in awhile, so I have no clue other than seeing a bunch of condos being built).
Ah, those silly boomers! Think someone’s going to buy their New West house for $1.2 million so they can live the retirement lifestyle with a huge chunk of change to spare. If 2013 turns out the way things seem to be unfolding, they may have to consider another retirement lifestyle. (Welcome to Walmart!)
(PS-bad idea to buy one place before you sell the other, especially in this market-has no one got the memo?)

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 43  7

mclovin Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 7:45 pm 40

#6

“Another 4% rent increase is in the book unless you are locked in or having generous landlords”

Ha ha ha ha – When was the last time a landlord could pass on a rent increase?

Most people are easily able to negotiate decreases. A buddy of mine just dropped his rent from $2,700 to $2,300 just by asking. The landlord wanted to keep a good tenant. The only stipulation? Sign a 1 yr lease which he was glad to do.

Good tenants are in short supply unlike good places to rent. Just imagine what it will be like this time next year.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 28  7

Makaya Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 7:50 pm 41

@ Anonymous #10 (December 28th, 2012 at 10:19 am)
First of all, pick a name instead of cowardly hiding as an Anonymous. Second, I have described in great length my position and my predictions on RE here for years, as well as in two articles I wrote for GEAB, one in April and one last month. If you’re interested about what I think, drop me an email at fortunatefool00@gmail.com and I’ll be more than happy to forward you these articles. As a favor, I would ask you in return to provide all of us here your opinion on the current state of the market and your predictions for the next 3-5 years.

Hot debate. What do you think? 25  11

An Observer Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 8:03 pm 42

Did we ever get daily numbers for December 24 or is that considered a holiday day?

Like or Dislike: 0  0

VMD Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 8:20 pm 43

@42
Troll did provide Dec 24 stats at
0 sale
10 lists

Hot debate. What do you think? 14  4

Girlbear Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 8:21 pm 44

How on earth could THIS be considered a “Vancouver Luxury Realty” home…??? Good God.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3502573319.html

Hot debate. What do you think? 25  8

real_professional Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 8:46 pm 45

At the time of the last federal election I sent this chart, which was published in the financial post, to a number of politicians….. I got nothing. One conservative on the north shore replied, yadda yadda vancouver is beautiful, yadda yadda immigration, therefore there is no bubble.

But the conservatives are to blame, that is for sure. They created the bubble. Everyone stood by and watched, but they created it.

http://www.pacificapartners.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Vancouver_Real_Estate.png

Hot debate. What do you think? 16  4

Girlbear Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 9:20 pm 46

From my last post just had to add, I love the part where she says available in “prestigious New Westminster”. Wow, I guess I am out of the loop on the prestigious hoods these days!

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 35  1

market stats Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:00 pm 47

Sales seems to have spiked last couple day maybe year end rush for agents to make quotas or something. But I would say the deals I have looked at have been reasonable markdowns to original lists and have largely languished for some months.

Like or Dislike: 6  1

Anonymous Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:19 pm 48

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

Re. #41

Makaya,

I have no doubt that you have some reasons behind your “lol” remark. But a one word “lol” rebuttal of an argument seems to assume a likeminded and uniform audience who all know and share your position. If the audience is a varied one and the forum a venue for genuine discussion and difference of opinion, “lol” without further elaboration makes no sense.

Before I dedicate time to reading your articles, would you care to tell us what your track record of predicting the market has been in the last few years? If your record is, say 75-80% correct your articles might be worth studying. If you have been mostly wrong, e.g. by repeatedly predicting a downturn which didn’t happen, why should I bother?

As for my anonymity; I tried commenting under a pseudonym for a while. Once I became known as a non-bear I got consisently voted into oblivion no matter what I said. Even innocent questions were promptly hidden behind that annoying “foreclosure” stamp. As an anonymous you have to consider every comment on its merit.

You have to admit the video is pretty funny.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 12  20

Aleksey Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:24 pm 49

Anybody has an year-end stats?
In Vancouver Sun they claim that “Alongside sales volumes, the number of new listings has dropped.” I thought that listings were quite high this year and they are up comparing to previous years. Are they just lying providing wrong data?

Like or Dislike: 4  1

Aleksey Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:27 pm 50

strike out “lying” from my question
didn’t know that html tags are not supported…

Like or Dislike: 0  1

Apocarypse Mao Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:45 pm 51

@Aleksey:

Listings are always low in December, so they have dropped since summer. I keep track using the mls map, zooming in to the same boundary of the GVRD for consistency. Last year at this time there were about 5k listings. At the peak last summer there were about 20k listings. Now the number of listings have dropped to about 17k.

So, they’re not lying, there just not telling the whole truth. Yes, they have dropped somewhat since fall (as they usually do) but they are still very, very, very high for this time of year.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 26  1

Ulsterman Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 10:50 pm 52

Anecdote from Christas Party:

Woman, mid 30’s, single mum, no child support, earning 50-60k. People were congratulating her for her tenacity and financial wisdom.

She moved to Coquitlam from Kits 8 years ago to save on rent. Put a small amount away every pay check (sub $100) for 8 years to save for a deposit. Just bought a 1 bed apartment in Kits in July.

I could see her lips moving as she told the story, but in my head all i could think was “Oh my God, what an awful time to buy!” From the numbers she used i suspect she amassed no more than a 5% deposit.

I commended her on her discipline in saving money and living within her means, but it did make me feel badly that if the market corrects significantly as i hope it will, this poor woman will see all her hard work wiped out.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 54  5

Short'em High Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 11:08 pm 53

real_professional Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 8:46 pm

… yadda yadda vancouver is beautiful, yadda yadda immigration, therefore there is no bubble…

Nevertheless, it is good to let them know they will be judged on their reckless inaction in the future.

Understandably, politicians would rather not invite a divisive follow-up question along the lines of, if there is a bubble, will your government bailout individual underwater home owners who will (and morally should) be thrown out of their homes onto the street?

The necessary medicine is the same as it was in the US. What is needed is video of ordinary looking Canadians making the national news while being thrown out of their homes. On their way out we will hear their story blaming lending, realtors, etc. in the obligatory emotional plea to reporters.

That “not our fault” Irish woman blaming lenders for their situation in Ireland per CBC October 2012 interview is exactly what it will sound like.

http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/podcasts/asithappens_20121009_77321.mp3

Seek to 16:30 to hear it again.

Like or Dislike: 5  2

real_professional Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 11:19 pm 54

@ Ulsterman. Wow that is sad. It is a reminder that in debt infused bubble there is no wealth creation, just wealth displacement. Her savings went to the realtor and the bank, she traded the previous owner a house for her future earnings and the bank facilitated it with financial bondage.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 26  4

VHB Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 11:20 pm 55

Dec-2012	
Total days	19
Days elapsed so far	18
Weekends / holidays	10
Days missing	0
Days remaining	1
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	59
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	31
SALES	
Sales so far	1130
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	59
Projected month end total	1189
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	1308
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	31
Projected month end total	1339
Sell-list so far	86.4%
Projected month-end sell-list	88.8%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of December 28, 2012	14226
Current MoI at this sales pace	11.96

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 44  0

real_professional Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 11:22 pm 56

Also…. been meaning to comment on that BNN interview, 30% correction is becoming the norm prediction…. as recently as this summer, no one dare state more than 10% for fear of being ridiculed

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 28  2

VHB Says:
December 28th, 2012 at 11:32 pm 57

Here are the January 2011 dailies:

4-Jan	88	267
5-Jan	76	250
6-Jan	40	165
7-Jan	86	177
8-Jan		
9-Jan		
10-Jan	98	266
11-Jan	44	261
12-Jan	73	186
13-Jan	74	200
14-Jan	58	171
15-Jan		
16-Jan		
17-Jan	119	292
18-Jan	90	272
19-Jan	129	257
20-Jan	79	247
21-Jan	75	225
22-Jan		
23-Jan		
24-Jan	123	287
25-Jan	101	234
26-Jan	142	270
27-Jan	130	250
28-Jan	115	270
29-Jan		
30-Jan		
31-Jan	136	273

Here is January 2012:

3-Jan	45	259
4-Jan	65	288
5-Jan	30	231
6-Jan	76	217
7-Jan		
8-Jan		
9-Jan	43	376
10-Jan	94	351
11-Jan	59	266
12-Jan	48	232
13-Jan	55	218
14-Jan		
15-Jan		
16-Jan	65	428
17-Jan	82	324
18-Jan	57	273
19-Jan	100	234
20-Jan	98	250
21-Jan		
22-Jan		
23-Jan	73	307
24-Jan	117	330
25-Jan	62	218
26-Jan	95	176
27-Jan	94	214
28-Jan		
29-Jan		
30-Jan	123	292
31-Jan	112	278

In 2011, we had zero 300+ listing days in January. In 2012, we had our first 400+ listing day on January 16th. Anyone think we’ll see a 400+ listing day before January 16th in 2013? Or will we get one at all in January 2013?

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 44  0

RaggedyRenter Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 12:11 am 58

@Ulsterman

You’re so right, I feel really bad for my peers. This will absolutely wipe clean the middle class homeowners. I’ve seen this movie played out before in US and Europe. You know how people would get emotionally tied up with their home and absolutely gushing with love when they’re talking about their abode. When the market turned, not only their finances are ruined, their emotional well being are very affected.

I advised my friend to sell and rent. Even if he have to take a dent in his equity (bought 2008), sell and get out. Laid out all the realities in the market today and how it’s going to get worse in 2013. I told him if your realtor is honest, he will say the market is already dead and will advise you to sell and get out. He said the realtor did advise him to sell because there will be a lot of condo in the market but to buy SFH because the price will hold up. God, how does he sleep at night?

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 23  3

real_professional Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 12:26 am 59

Just saw this on the globe and mail.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/cmhc-must-stay-in-government-hands/article6790504/comments/

Please read and comment. This has to be the most poorly written economic argument I have seen in the globe. It is poor enough to be in the Province. He makes no real economic argument, instead it is just conjecture.

Like or Dislike: 6  3

Patiently Waiting Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 1:21 am 60

“I commended her on her discipline in saving money and living within her means”

I wonder what she denied her child (or children) for the sake of this down-payment. Music lessons? Sports uniforms? School books? Her priorities are messed up for a parent. Kids don’t care if they live in a rented or owned home. An entire Coquitlam house can be rented for less than the ownership cost of a small Kits condo. You have to wonder who gets the one bedroom? Mom or the kid(s) or (ick) both.

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  10

G Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 1:31 am 61

so what happened to that Chinese realtor’s kits townhouse featured on CBC housing bubble?

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 29  1

patriotz Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 3:42 am 62

“if the market corrects significantly as i hope it will, this poor woman will see all her hard work wiped out.”

If she bought in July and put 5% down, she’s already been wiped out and then some.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 35  5

patriotz Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 3:46 am 63

“This will absolutely wipe clean the middle class homeowners.”

Nonsense, just those who bought at excessive prices, or those who bought at reasonable prices but have been borrowing against the increase. Both of which deserve exactly what they will get. Responsible homeowners weren’t affected, which was also the case in the US.

If you buy at a house at a reasonable price and don’t speculate on future movements what happens to the market after that doesn’t matter.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 33  2

Anonymous Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 4:04 am 64

@46 Girlbear:

I got a laugh out of “prestigious New Westminster” in that ad too. There is nothing prestigious about New Westminster. It is just a sleepy, formerly industrial town on the north bank of the Fraser River with a lot of history. Why do real estate ads have to oversell everything. Anyone with the slightest clue knows New West is not prestigious. That kind of blatant exaggeration just makes you question everything else written in the ad. That place looks pretty ugly from the outside. Sure it has a jacuzzi–but I wonder how it old it is and how clean it is and whether it really works. The finishings in the kitchen look straight out of the 1980s. The place looks pretty dumpy. Sure it has a nice view of Mount Baker. I’ve rented a lot of dumpy places in New West with great views of Mount Baker and I didn’t have to pay anything near that price.That place shouldn’t rent for much more than $2000 a month. It’s a 4 bedroom so it could be rented to 4 students/Starbucks baristas for $500 a month each.

Hot debate. What do you think? 19  2

Anonymous Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 4:11 am 65

That rental in New West shouldn’t be more than $2000 a month tops. It sounds like the fourth bedroom isn’t even a real bedroom–more like a little nook next to the living room. Really $1850 would probably be fair.

Hot debate. What do you think? 8  2

Anonymous Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 4:32 am 66

New calls for an Industrial Land Reserve in Metro Vancouver. The article points out that Target wanted to open up a distribution centre in Metro Vancouver but they couldn’t find any affordable land so they located it in Calgary instead. This is a prime example of how sky high real estate prices squeeze out the real economy. Little land is left over for the productive economy. Working class people could have benefited from those jobs at a Target distribution centre.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Port+Metro+Vancouver+calls+industrial+land+reserve+Lower/7754643/story.html

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 31  1

Short'em High Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 5:21 am 67

Anonymous Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 4:32 am

New calls for an Industrial Land Reserve in Metro Vancouver… sky high real estate prices squeeze out the real economy. Little land is left over for the productive economy. Working class people could have benefited from those jobs…

Check out the name of the container vessel in the story:

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/7754644.bin

“Pacific Fantasy”

What a perfect name for Vancouver’s RE market and general economy. More million dollar homes than the entire list inventory of the USA. Canadians who bid up these properties have rocks in their heads!

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 24  2

real_professional Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 5:27 am 68

Many 2013 forecasts of canada revolve around household debt risk and slowing housing. A sample is below. The risks have really gone mainstream, and mainstream to the extent that it is beyond Global’s calls that it is “a buyers market”. This is important for consumer sentiment to sour further.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-28/toronto-stocks-seen-trailing-u-s-market-for-third-year.html

Hot debate. What do you think? 14  0

Anonymous Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 8:36 am 69

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

“I wonder what she denied her child (or children) for the sake of this down-payment. Music lessons? Sports uniforms? School books? Her priorities are messed up for a parent. Kids don’t care if they live in a rented or owned home. An entire Coquitlam house can be rented for less than the ownership cost of a small Kits condo. You have to wonder who gets the one bedroom? Mom or the kid(s) or (ick) both“

well, either a small kit condo or your dump place that people pee on your front door. have you moved yet

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 2  19

yvr2zrh Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 8:50 am 70

V980734 – 4033 Osler. (FSD)
Original Ask – 4.35M
Assessed 4.283 M
Sold – 3.350M
Listing date – April 2011. (3.7M ask raised in Nov 2011 to 4.35M)
Seller is licensed realtor.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 45  0

Makaya Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 9:19 am 71

@Anon #48

I have no doubt that you have some reasons behind your “lol” remark.

I would have thought that anybody would understand the irony of the article, where the author claims “multiple reasons” for the market to not crash: #1: low interest rates; #2 low interest rates; #3 other reasons (that he didn’t specify). Apparently you didn’t.

Before I dedicate time to reading your articles, would you care to tell us what your track record of predicting the market has been in the last few years?

I offered to send you my articles in which all my positions and predictions are made. It’s up to you to make your own opinion on whether I’m correct or not. If you’re too lazy to take 10 minutes to read them, then there’s nothing I can do for you.

I also note that you conveniently ignore my request. We’re still waiting for your position on the current state of the market and your predictions for the next 3-5 years. If you’ve been constantly voted into foreclosure, maybe that has something to do with your trolling attitude and not the arguments you’re trying (or not) to make…

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 30  5

yvr2zrh Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 9:29 am 72

Some December Stats – Van-West Detached.

41 resale properties sold
Avg Sale compared to Assessed vale 92%.
This should be another 1% down for the month and bring HPI for Van-West Detached to approx 205-206. This is now 11% down from May 2012 Peaks. You can not call this a soft landing in any way – This is a real decrease of 11% in 7 months. That would be close to 20% in one year.

I believe that the predictions have never called for an immediate disaster but really an unwinding process that will take 5 years to fully play out. We now have a real trend in place.

A couple of other thoughts. December was slow. Listings were definitely down and slow so we are seeing some effects of the market challenges on listings. However, the weakest markets had high listings including VanWest and Richmond detached.

We continue to see some strenght in East Van Attached. This has been the strongest market this year for some reason.

2013 really does not look good at all. We have a very high inventory going into the beginning of the year and there is poor momentum. One stat that is interesting is that similar to 2008, we have had more cancellations/expiries/removals than sales. This means that less than 50% of the listings that were made during the year were successful at resulting in a sale. This is a tought one to analyze in detail but it does mean we have a very very high number of homes waiting to be listed.

Catch you all next year.

Happy new year all – – – -

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 62  0

Beuller Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 10:21 am 73

Curious to get peoples thoughts on the $50Billion taxpayer dollars that Flaherty graciously handed over to Genworth last week. The wussy little garden gnome gave in to industry panic and pressure. Will this extend the bubble and make for one last spring rush or is this a non-event?

Hot debate. What do you think? 9  2

vanhattan Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 11:11 am 74

“learn from the mistakes of others…you can’t live long enough to make them all your self”. This was posted on my mothers refrigerator 30 years ago and glad I took heed.

Anyways, lived in Vancouver for 6 years from 2005 to 2011. I owned a pretty nice condo water side DT but was rather tired of living in a 1000sf generic box even though it had awesome views. Started SFH shopping. After a year looking I simply gave up. I made north of 200K but would go to opens in the 1.2-1.5M range only to find completely falling down pieces of junk only to find out later that they sold for 20-30% over asking the same weekend.

I looked at my partner and said it is time to toss in the towel. My career had nowhere to go but down all the while prices continued to go up in Vancouver. I simply could not figure out how if I was near the top of the heap of income, and I could not afford to buy a decent home, how the F*&^ was everyone else able to afford such ridiculously priced pieces of junk???? I mean, really, wtf???

So I set my sights back on the USA where the real estate market had crumbled. I rented in SF for 6 months but rent here is out of control as they really have not built anything for 5 years due to the crash. I purchased a gorgeous extremely well built home just north of the city for 900K, which in Vancouver would cost about 3 M on the west side. (It was purchased by the previous owner for 1.5M just 5 years earlier). Prices are now headed back up so perhaps I purchased at the bottom for a 33% discount?

Anyways, I firmly believe that what happened in the USA is now just beginning to take place in Vancouver. For all those who own who are moaning about how they can’t sell their place at these insane prices….be smart. Look around, cut the list price of your home by 20-25% of today’s comps, and get out now. If you wait, like most in the US did, you will be moaning that your home is worth 30-60% less in just a few years.

Ignore my advice or call me wrong but I have reality here in the US as my proof.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 68  2

The V. Sun sucks Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 11:42 am 75

I get the Sun delivered mainly for the sport section and to light the kindling in my fireplace. However, as I often get really really annoyed with their inept coverage of financial and economic topics I am considering switching to the Province. The question is, is it any better???

I almost never read anything about their favourate sources Tsur Somerville and Cameron Muir who they have the nerve to call analysts or economists when they are shills for the RE industry, but I had time to kill today and got curious about the headline that it could take a long time for our market to crash. Neither of them said that it would not crash…with a lot of other ifs & buts. The wisest thing that Cam had to say was home sales are predicted to trend towards their long term average, while Tsur confided that if he could predict int rates, he would be really really rich…keep up the good work boys!

Whenever these guys do not actually say that the market will go up, you should know that we’re in big trouble.

What bothers me is that some poor souls may actually believe this crap when the Sun hangs labels on these guys like “Chief Economist” or “the University of BC Sauder School of Business. They are paid shills!

Totally disgusting!

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 35  1

jesse Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 11:51 am 76

@VMD looks like we’ll be sub-1200 sales, though I don’t know how accurate the sales on the 24th were. December was not a strong month, but roughly in-line with our expectations.

VHB is bang on with listings growth through the first few months of the year. It’s by no means certain but, if Vancouver is in for more pain in 2013, listings growth is a good leading indicator.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 23  0

Tax Cheats Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 12:02 pm 77

Are real estate prices justified by fundamentals? Looking at the official statistics, no they aren’t.

But there are factors some may not be considering, which is the underground economy, and especially the Asian underground economy.

I worked the census in Richmond, and monster house after monster house they told me they made $5k, $20k, $30k/year household income.

Richmond and West Vancouver have some of the highest childhood poverty rates in the Province based on reported income. This doesn’t pass the smell test. Obviously income is not being reported.

People driving $60-$100+ cars come to medical offices and claim low income benefits.

These are all Asian. Obviously tax cheating happens in all groups, but what I am seeing is pervasive culture of tax cheating. We are all paying for the cheats.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 73  6

Vote Down The Facts Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 12:51 pm 78

“More million dollar homes than the entire list inventory of the USA. ”

False.

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  10

patriotz Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 12:57 pm 79

“Are real estate prices justified by fundamentals? Looking at the official statistics, no they aren’t.”

You don’t need statistics. Just compare price versus rent for the same property. Those are the actual fundamentals. Do the rents justify the prices? Obviously not.

Hot debate. What do you think? 16  3

Girlbear Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 1:03 pm 80

“More million dollar homes than the entire list inventory of the USA. ”

Yeah, sorry but I gotta call that one out too. Can you provide support for this statement? If you can, would love to see it.

Like or Dislike: 5  1

oneangryslav2 Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 1:21 pm 81

Some readers may remember me writing about my sister-in-law’s* family who, I had assumed, were HELOCing the crap out of their home in the furthest reaches of the Fraser Valley. Well, it turns out I was right but the real story is much worse than even I had expected. As I lay down to rest and aid in the digestion of the Christmas turkey, I overheard a conversation my sister-in-law was hiving with her sister–my wife.

Anyway, the gist of it is that my sister-in-law’s family had sold their townhouse in a less far-flung Fraser Valley suburb in 2005 only to use the $65K in gained equity as a down-payment on their current home. As of today, this family has zero of that equity left. If they were to sell their house for what they could likely get for it today, they would just be able to pay off their current mortgage and attendant expenses of selling. How is this possible, given that they purchased in 2005/2006? Two reasons:

1) HELOC–As I suspected with only one working parent (blue-collar construction-type job) working and a few young children, it was not difficult to figure out that the only way they could afford the relatively new minivan and annual trips (not to mention the ridiculously extravagant and unnecessary Christmas presents!!) was by dipping into their home equity on a regular (monthly, as it turns out) basis.

But, reason #2 is the real kicker:

2) They have an interest-only mortgage! I honestly didn’t think these were allowed in Canada. Anyway, if this is true, then they’ve been paying at least a few hundred dollars more per month in living expenses than if they had been renting the same place. The day before Christmas, they had an issue with the electricity, which necessitated getting a new breaker panel (more than $500 expense–Merry Xmas!). I know for a fact that they spent 25K renovating their kitchen, so that would presumably have increased the potential resell value of their home. That being said, refer above to where they are right now with respect to equity.

If this family’s story is at all representative (and I suspect that it is), then tens-of-thousands of families are in for a world of hurt over the next decade or so. After telling my wife that I overheard her conversation with her sister and explaining why what her sister’s family is doing is dangerous for their financial future, she encouraged me to speak with my sister-in-law and her husband.

*Every time I hear or read the word, sister-in-law, it reminds me of when I was working in the refugee resettlement area overseas. At the time, the then-INS allowed refugees who had already resettled in the USA to sponsor relative who had been left behind in their respective war-torn countries. I would receive a copy of the hosting refugee’s family sponsor application form and verify it for accuracy, etc. One time, the form listed the sponsoring relatives as “brother” and “sister-in-love”. It’s an in-joke with my family now and we all use “X-in-love” now regularly!

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 36  2

Girlbear Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 1:45 pm 82

@Onesngryslav

Sad story. I know of a similiar story. Friend of a friend. She got married a couple of years ago….mid 30s couple. They make an approx $100-$110k/yr combined. They are real people doing regular jobs. They were living in her small condo in Yaletown. About a year ago they had their first child, so they decided to upgrade to a larger place and bought a 2 BR condo in Coquitlam. A lot of their friends begged them to rent, but they were having none of that. Fast forward to now. Childcare expenses higher than they anticipated, commute adding to their costs (they both work in Vancouver), and her income is based somewhat on commissions in the investment industry, so not as high as she had hoped this year.
They cannot sell the place in Coquitlam for what they need to sell it for (underwater and cannot afford the balloon payment of amt that would be owed to bank). Already in deep on other loans, credit cards etc…
So they are stumbling along making the monthly payments. They are at the point where friends and family are buying groceries, baby items etc for them now. They are not in a good place.

Anyone in a similiar situation PLEASE read this and DO NOT BUY. I do not wish this for anyone. Sadly for my generation, it’s an all too familiar scenario.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 50  7

Troll Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 1:58 pm 83

@Jesse. Dec. 24 stats are correct. 0-sales, 10-price change, 11-lists.

Totals for week of Dec. 22-29:
Sales: 191
Price Changes: 98
New Listings: 110

Sales very low for December, only 2008 was lower. But new listings even lower, lowest in 10 years at least. I guess this is what Cam Muir is referring to. A little misleading to say that people are pulling listings rather than selling, when total inventory is well above average.

It will be interesting to see how many folks re-list in spring vs. how much pent up demand there is now that prices have come off of peak.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 23  2

Crasher Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 2:37 pm 84

Even if the Sun did not embellish comments from Muir and Somerville so shamelessly, these guys sound pretty dumb for economists.
Nary a word about fundamentals, demographics, price/income or rent/own ratios.

There have never been more warnings from credble economists that our market is likely to crash. Even bank economists who are schooled not to alarm the public are finding it difficult to remain calm.

I don’t see much hope of this train not plunging over the cliff.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 22  1

Girlbear Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 2:57 pm 85

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3497353586.html

Looks like renters are starting to try to take control of that market also. lol

Hot debate. What do you think? 16  5

HAM Solo Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 3:05 pm 86

Christmas Eve, boomer uncle/aunt finally ready to sell westside home after 90k oil storage tank removal bill hit hard. Current thinking is now that they Sell first, then look for a place to buy. This is an update from last summer when they were thinking of Buying first. Apparently all their friends are telling them the market has topped out.

This is 2013. Who needs doomers to talk down the market, when you have boomers?

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 34  2

No Noise Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 3:26 pm 87

Pretty sure the idea that Vancouver has more million dollar homes than all of the USA came from the following article by Ben Rabidoux which was posted on VCI last August. He dug up the stats. Its not as people are now describing but still totally ridiculous when you look at population/ave. income as Ben describes:

“Before diving into the data, consider this fun anecdote: There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver metro area for sale for over $1 million according to MLS.ca. In comparison, the NAR reports that in April, just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US were sold for over $1 million. And this despite the fact that the US population is 135X greater than the metro Vancouver market, the average personal disposable income in the US is 20% higher than the Vancouver average ($37,100 vs. $30,800) while US per capita GDP is higher than the average for all of BC”

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/vancouver-housing-full-correction-mode-implications-canadian-banks

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 24  1

jerkasaurus Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 3:28 pm 88

Girl Bear: I can guarantee those people will get lots of calls, but most of them will be from people trying to rent out apartments with features they specifically asked not to have.

Hot debate. What do you think? 13  1

admin Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 3:36 pm 89

New Vancouver Peak forum now open for registration:

http://vancouverpeak.com/member.php?action=register

Any requests for specific information from the old site to restore? Pullling stuff out of the database is a manual process and not much fun, but we’ll try to repost anything that is specifically requested.

The old site was a cludge, we’re using proper forum software now and will be instituting a backup schedule for the database and looking for moderators in the near future.

To keep spammers at bay, all registrations must be activated via an email link within 2 days and all accounts with zero posts are deleted after 1 week. A single post will suffice to prove you’re not a bot or spammer.

Here’s the site: http://vancouverpeak.com

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  1

Wakeup call Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 3:54 pm 90

There have been rumors of some ridiculously low offers being accepted over the last couple of weeks.
The only “sold” signs I can see around the north shore are in the lower segment, older properties, busy streets, etc. It makes me sad that these buyers are obviously innocent first timers who think they got a bargain. The upscale market that would cater to a more mature group is totally dead. Nothing is moving.

Foreign investors are long gone. Why take a chance on a market that has just started to turn down when the US has already bottomed.

My warning to potential first timers:
Read economic forecasts.
Check out websites like this one. A whole bunch of new similar sites seem to have popped up lately…wonder why.
Regardless how appealing some price reductions may look now, they will drop much lower.
At the very least, wait for the listings explosion in the spring to get a feeling for the momentum.
You could get a lifetime opportunity in a year or two.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 26  1

patriotz Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 4:14 pm 91

” There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver metro area for sale for over $1 million according to MLS.ca.”

Apples to, well, oranges: Zillow says there are currently 3,632 properties listed for over $1 million in Los Angeles County, population 9,889,056.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 24  0

Anonymous Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 4:41 pm 92

“To get prices to really tank, you’ve got to have a real negative economic shock” – Tsur Sommerville

“To get bell bottoms to go out of style, you’ve got to have a big enough hurricane to wipe out all textile plants at once. I just can’t see any other outcome. This fashion style is here to stay folks.” – Msur Tommerville

Hot debate. What do you think? 21  3

yvr2zrh Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 4:53 pm 93

Regarding the comment that we will have lowest listings for December in 10 years. This is very true – likely even the lowest in 20 years. So if we break it down a bit and compare to 2008, the following is noted.

Listings are actually higher in:
Van West Detached
Richmond Detached
Richmond Attached
West Van

Decreases in
VanWest Attached
Van East Attached and Detached
Burnaby Detached

Overall, we should come in about 8% below 2008 on Listings. The whole market has now slowed and may grind to a complete halt soon as nobody is able to complete a transaction at the price they want.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 29  8

Girlbear Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 5:25 pm 94

Oh yay! Gotta get me on that wait list!!!!

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3489296993.html

Hot debate. What do you think? 9  1

RealityCheck Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 5:57 pm 95

Just a note on Home Prices vs Incomes ratio.

Over the holidays, after talking to extended family/friends, I realized that those with businesses (Corporations)had the lowest incomes on their tax returns yet drove the nicest cars. One person said he collects child benefits because family income is around 18,000 per year yet his business rakes in $200,000 per month!

I think a better thing would be to compare Home Prices vs Corporate/Worker income ratio. As I understand, Corporate earnings and cash on hand is at the highest levels ever.

Like or Dislike: 5  4

stagnate Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 6:08 pm 96

ulsterman says: this poor woman will see all her hard work wiped out.

based on your description of her senario it sounds like she will stay put for quite some time. if she had bought in coquitlam it would have been more problematic. kits is a condo market with one of the strongest demand vs. supply dynamics in the world. bottom line, not a get rich quick scheme but she is not a prime example of someone in a bad situation.

Hot debate. What do you think? 7  9

Anonymous Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 6:58 pm 97

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

Re #71

Okay Makaya, you win. Send me the articles. My e-mail is tsur.somerville@sauder.ubc.ca.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 3  16

vangrl Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 7:27 pm 98

really? $3200 for 700 square feet? wtf . I can’t wait for the new year and some sanity to sink in

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3504316816.html

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 21  1

vangrl Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 7:40 pm 99

“Regarding the comment that we will have lowest listings for December in 10 years. This is very true…”

our listings right now are lower than they have been in 10 years? is that lowest “new listings in Dec” ? or lowest total inventory?

“

Like or Dislike: 7  1

painted turtle Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 8:57 pm 100

Vancouver vulnerable to the ravages of global warming, researchers say (Part 1 of 3)

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/2035/Vancouver+vulnerable+ravages+global+warming+researchers+Part/7668765/story.html#ixzz2GVZQU4uB

Like or Dislike: 0  1

Girlbear Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 8:58 pm 101

Vangrl

I have seen that laneway house on CL for months now…and it’s always available “immediately”…

Hot debate. What do you think? 19  1

Ulsterman Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 9:50 pm 102

stagnate Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 6:08 pm
ulsterman says: this poor woman will see all her hard work wiped out.

based on your description of her senario it sounds like she will stay put for quite some time. if she had bought in coquitlam it would have been more problematic. kits is a condo market with one of the strongest demand vs. supply dynamics in the world. bottom line, not a get rich quick scheme but she is not a prime example of someone in a bad situation.

I agree Stagnate to a degree. She has a secure job and now lives in a highly desirable part of the country / world. Sure beats Coquitlam. I don’t anticipate her losing the place or anything like that. From a psychological stance though, i think if she was aware that if she were to sell today she’d probably have to bring a cheque to close, she’d probably be depressed. In the same way that people count their equity as “profit”, she’d have buyer’s remorse if she knew she were underwater so quickly. If she knew right now that in 3 years it may be worth 30% less than now, how would she feel?

It’s not so much that she CAN take the long view, it’s more that she simply MUST take the long view. Imagine 4 1/2 years from now when she come to renew if the place is worth 20-40% less and 5 year rates are 6-7%.

Maybe in 25 years she’ll be laughing, i don’t know. All i know is that i didn’t have any desire to discuss the housing market with her.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 25  1

Girlbear Says:
December 29th, 2012 at 9:57 pm 103

Funny, on the sidebar for this site right now there is an ad for the Millionaire Lottery. “Want to WIN a Spectacular Ocean View OR $2.5 MILLION CASH?”

Ummm, cash please.

Hot debate. What do you think? 22  4

stagnate Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 2:00 am 104

ulsterman says: Imagine 4 1/2 years from now when she come to renew if the place is worth 20-40% less and 5 year rates are 6-7%.

the way you describe her situation i anticipate she has a well defined income and expenses, ergo she must have bought with similar cash flow to her previous rental. she can’t go to far wrong long term, the 20-40 less with 6-7 rates is just pure bear porn (not likely).

Hot debate. What do you think? 2  9

patriotz Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 2:21 am 105

” The whole market has now slowed and may grind to a complete halt soon as nobody is able to complete a transaction at the price they want.”

I’ve said it before and will say it again – somebody always has to sell and they have to accept what someone is willing to pay.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 34  4

squeako Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 2:37 am 106

It is tough, and will be tough for many that bought way too high.

But if it was still to go up, then what? I dont think many of the buyers would have much sympathy for those that chose not buy…, did we not see this not long ago, the spat on feeling.

Is it a sense of entitlement that makes some people buy without not thinking how much it really is that they are going to pay?
I wonder if they are of a generation that was given and given, not having to think about what things cost?
I dont know, but know that I would be scared s..t less if I had this amount of money owing, you have to take responsibility for your actions, if not, a society will not fare well for long.

There is no shame in saying, sorry, but I cannot afford to own a house or even a condominium. That statement demonstrates character and responsibility. Not everybody is going to own a BMW, or a home, and that is ok, life goes on. Now if you choose to fret about it, I suppose that is a choice. And again, what is the real driving force for plunging oneself into this massive amount of debt?
Entitlement? Panic? Lemmeling? Jones’es? Self esteem? Stupid?
Narcisism? Poor math skills? It always goes up? Laxidasical? Read the Sun and believe it? The “golden bankruptsy” backup? Mental illness?

I know a few years back, I noticed so many new shiny cars on the roads,heard of people buying homes, the real estate papers were getting thicker and prices were going higher, but no more money in my paycheque. I asked myself if I was missing something. So I asked a few people, and asked them to ask their friends, did they get any raises? Was trying to find out if I was falling behind somehow, maybe I was in the wrong job/industry.

Well, nobody got anymore money. That is why I searched and found this blog, that confirmed my suspicion, the media was not matching my observations, and I stopped buying the papers and the news was just talking phoney heads. Why waste my time and money on liars.

Anyways, still wondering why anybody would want to take on this unpayable amount of debt, wondering.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 44  7

rp1 Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 4:34 am 107

#80 I believe the number of million dollar homes was an apples to oranges comparison by Ben. He compared listed homes in (Greater?) Vancouver to (annual?) sales across the US. However the US market is 10x larger and it is the richest country in the world, etc. The point he was making IMO, was that the aggregate expectations of Vancouver home sellers made no sense at all.

Hot debate. What do you think? 19  1

gordholio Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 8:56 am 108

#104, Patriotz: Absolutely correct. My friends (the couple I’ve mentioned here many times before) now desperately need to sell their condo. Been on the market for seven months so far, and only one offer (that fell through due to financing). They’ve now dropped their price by 20%, and all the lies their realtor told them (“September is always busy,” “December has always been a big month for me,” “Market problems are temporary and only confined to your neighbourhood”) are proving to be just that – lies. Now they’re absolutely chasing this thing down, yet they need to sell more than ever, and are willing to look at offers some 30% less than their original price.

They may need to go to 40%. And they no longer think I’m full of hot air.

#105, squeako: Great, all-encompassing post. One correction:

“There is no shame in saying, sorry, but I cannot afford to own a house or even a condominium” should read “There is no shame in saying, sorry, but I’m not stupid enough to own a house or even a condominium.”



Otherwise, great stuff. Living within your means is a smart thing, and I’m positive the next few years will be much better ones for those who have than those who haven’t.

Happy new year, everyone.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 39  6

Anonymous Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 9:50 am 109

“It’s not so much that she CAN take the long view, it’s more that she simply MUST take the long view. Imagine 4 1/2 years from now when she come to renew if the place is worth 20-40% less and 5 year rates are 6-7%.”

If interest rates are 6-7% the condo will be worth a whole lot less than 20-40%. We will see the first 20% within a year without a rate increase. If rates double not only will she be screwed if her income doesn’t increase significantly but prices will easily be down by 60% or more. I don’t see how someone who could only save a 5% dp could afford to have the interest on her mortgage double. This lady will either go bankrupt or live in poverty for the next 20 years.

Hot debate. What do you think? 17  10

Anonymous Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 10:27 am 110

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

why do silly bears know so many people in bad housing situations? or are they just make-up stories to sooth their own pain?

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 5  17

Patiently Waiting Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 10:40 am 111

squeako, interesting you brought up mental illness. This is a part of bubbles we don’t normally talk about. Its just like when the government builds casinos everywhere, triggering people with gambling addictions. Yes, people can still find ways to gamble, but why make it so “fun” and convenient? I used to cynically say casinos “taxed stupidity” when the more likely they tax “mental illness”.

Like with building casinos, massively loosening credit is a truly evil move by policy makers that is guaranteed to cause widespread self-destructive behaviour. Its evil because it is purposefully done with true malevolent intent to hurt people for profit.

It is those in power who brought this upon us.

Like or Dislike: 9  0

Girlbear Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 10:46 am 112

#109 Anon

Ok, I will try to “sooth” my pain.

Hot debate. What do you think? 4  7

Anonymous Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 10:49 am 113

Or there arenjust a lot of people in bad housing situations now

Like or Dislike: 0  5

Patiently Waiting Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 10:51 am 114

Are all comments going into “moderation” now due to the attacks on the site?

Hot debate. What do you think? 3  7

Anonymous Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 11:07 am 115

@gordholio

i know BMWs Were once luxury cars now they are everywhere. My sister in law finished her PhD And had only been working for 3 months and said she wanted a benz because she, “earned it”. Zero RRSPs, zero TFSAs, depleted her non registered savings. Albeit the Benz she bought was used and a relatively reasonable 27k, but couldnt her three year old mint Civic have served her?

this is the mind set everyone has now.. Live within someone else’s means

Hot debate. What do you think? 28  9

Groundhog Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 11:59 am 116

I noticed a delist from MLS in my neighbourhood a couple days ago. After enquiring about it I was told from the realtor it is still for sale, and was quoted an asking price about 25% below the last list price.

I was told that even though it is not on the MLS it is still on the market, is this legal? Surely not ethical.

Just an example of inventory that is not showing in official MLS #’s.

Hot debate. What do you think? 14  8

Village Whisperer Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 12:28 pm 117

@ Groundhog. The MLS website is just an advertising tool, albeit a very popular one. There are properties available for sale that aren’t on MLS. If you were selling your own house without a realtor, it would not be on MLS… and yes, it is legal.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 22  1

Groundhog Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 12:38 pm 118

@Village

Yes, I realize that but this is a home that IS being sold by an official “Realtor,” not by the owner. It is stated by the Realtor to be still on the market, and a list price was quoted to me by the Realtor.

Legal or not I don’t really care, but the main point is it should clearly be counted in the housing inventory but it is not.

Hot debate. What do you think? 5  8

Wakeup call Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 12:40 pm 119

RE: Anonymous #109

What a scary thought of rates going up after a few years of dropping prices (scary for bulls that is). That is not only possible but quite likely. Not much doubt that prices will drop in 2013, and a slow economy along with demographics should stretch that into another year or two. Just in time for the last year of a double term presidential cycle when the economy usually picks up with – you guessed it, INFLATION and higher rates.

60% does not sound unreasonable for a place that has the last dominos still standing.

Gawd, what an awfull time to step into this market.

Hot debate. What do you think? 11  1

Vote Down The Facts Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 1:17 pm 120

Groundhog, they don’t show up in sales stats either. So it doesn’t really make much difference, unless there’s a significant change in trend regarding sellers not using realtors.

Like or Dislike: 8  1

Yalie Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 1:24 pm 121

What a scary thought of rates going up after a few years of dropping prices (scary for bulls that is). That is not only possible but quite likely

If you look at the big picture, rates are not likely to go up any time soon. We are at the end of a multi-decade debt super-cycle. The economy’s capacity to absorb more debt has been reached, which means that deflation is far more likely than inflation for the next several years. To counter this, the BoC, Fed, etc will keep current “emergency” rates low for the next several years. In the US they are as low as they can possibly get without going negative; in Canada I still expect rates to go down before they go up.

Look at Japan, which has had deflation and 0% rates for 20 years. This is where we’re headed, which is why I think we’ll more likely see a slow, protracted decline in real estate prices rather than a rapid, sharp decline like we had in 1982.

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  10

Groundhog Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 1:50 pm 122

@Vote Down The Facts

They ARE using a Realtor. I just walked by and the sign is still there as well. And YES it does make a difference in stats if neither the listing nor the sale shows up in them. Open up an excel sheet and try some number crunching for yourself. If this is the only one like this, sure the difference is insignificant. However if Realtors are moving houses that remain on the market from the MLS on a large scale but still selling them, that has a very significant impact on the stats.

I have no idea how prevalent this is or if its normal, maybe it is. But look:

1)Realtor says its still on the market for sale
2)Realtor quotes a list price different then the last posted MLS list price
3)Sign is still out front after a week of not being on MLS
4)Same Realtor is handling it post-delisting as pre-delisting

Why should this not be listed on MLS? Call me crazy but it reeks of end of month data window dressing to me.

Hot debate. What do you think? 6  4

Wakeup call Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 1:55 pm 123

Yalie,

You’re probably right, but I’m not sure that we should use Japan as a road map. We’re closely tied to the US and they don’t have habit of following other game plans. They’re quite capable of creating their own mess. As for inflation, we should not shrug off the masive amounts of money that have been printed over the last few years. That alone cannot go on forever without currecies losing value and of course eventual inflation.

Nor would I pay much attention to what the bank of Canada babbles about. Their only course of action always has been and always will be to follow the Fed. Regardless of what they might want us to believe, they don’t have any other choices.

Anyway, it won’t take much of a rate hike to spook leveraged homeowners.

Like or Dislike: 4  4

Girlbear Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 2:08 pm 124

Re: #77 Tax Cheats

This is why I am a believer in consumption tax vs income tax. This especially applies to a country like Canada in which:
a) we have a fairly large number of immigrants that may be earning income overseas, and
b) these same immigrants are claiming very little income here yet digging into the social services.

Would also help shake some money out of those making their livings in the illegal drug trade in BC. No income tax paid there…

Hot debate. What do you think? 22  14

Yalie Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 2:18 pm 125

As for inflation, we should not shrug off the masive amounts of money that have been printed over the last few years. That alone cannot go on forever without currecies losing value and of course eventual inflation.

I agree – with a caveat that I believe that inflation has already happened. That’s why we had a housing bubble – all that money went into mortgage loans that had the effect of raising prices. Now that prices are no longer going up, we’re seeing a contraction of loans and therefore a decline in total money supply.

I’ve followed the inflation/deflation debate closely, giving equal weighting to both the deflationists (Mish, Steve Keen, the Automatic Earth) and the inflationists (Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Zero Hedge, etc). All very smart people, but frankly, the deflationists simply have better arguments.

You mention the “massive amounts of money” already printed. That’s the big argument the inflationists always give, and it sounds good until you realize that the base money supply “printed” by central banks is a tiny fraction of all the total money out there – 95% of which is in the form of credit. As one deflationist (Karl Denninger) pointed out, “credit spends the same as cash”.

So when credit is increasing, inflation is positive. When it’s declining, it’s negative (aka deflation). And we’ve seen the debt-to-gdp ratio rise in most of the western world for basically the past 50 or so years. When the pendulum swings the other way, it’s not going to be just a couple years, but more likely a couple of decades. The central bank can print all it wants, but if the credit pendulum is swinging the other way, that money won’t get distributed into the economy in the form of loans. Rather, existing loans (remember, 95% of all “money”) begin to default and a cycle goes the other way.

Hot debate. What do you think? 17  6

Crasher Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 2:22 pm 126

I have to agree that the MO of the Bank of Canada is to merely follow the FED.
Carney has had the easiest job in the world, but he will finally have to work for a living in the UK.

I think the demise of Japan was caused more by the emergence of China which was able to replace Japans manufacturing dominance with cheaper labour. North America has a much more diverse ecinomy than Japan.

Like or Dislike: 1  5

patriotz Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 3:11 pm 127

“So when credit is increasing, inflation is positive. ”

You have to distinguish between consumer price and asset price inflation. Consumers are able to avoid the latter but not the former.

Asset price deflation happens quite regularly – it’s more commonly called a bust or bear market. Consumer price deflation is different – even in Japan they’ve seen little of it.

You can’t combine the two in any meaningful way as one is the price of capital, i.e. a stock, and the other is the price of its output, i.e. a flow.

Hot debate. What do you think? 13  3

oneangryslav2 Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 3:14 pm 128

@ 125 Yalie:

I completely agree with you on this one, Yalie. I’ve followed the inflation/deflation argument closely over the last few years, have also analyzed the arguments of all those you mention in your post, and it seems to me as if the deflationists have the better of the argument. Just think of the purchasing power that will be lost when housing prices decrease by 40%. That’s also why I think that rates will not rise dramatically over the next few years.

Like or Dislike: 6  2

patriotz Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 3:36 pm 129

“Just think of the purchasing power that will be lost when housing prices decrease by 40%. ”

The purchasing power was lost at the time of purchase because people paid more than fundamental value for the houses. I mean total purchasing power going forward.

House sales don’t produce real output so a decline in house prices doesn’t actually reduce purchasing power. It just removes the illusion that the purchasing power wasn’t lost at time of purchase, or manifests the loss of purchasing power in the present to put it another way.

Hot debate. What do you think? 16  2

Troll Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 3:40 pm 130

@Patriotz

You have to distinguish between consumer price and asset price inflation.

No he doesn’t, because he’s defining inflation as monetary inflation, not price inflation. This should be obvious from the content of his post. Monetary inflation is far more useful to understand since it’s the weather while price inflation is only the thermometer and prone to confusion (asset price deflation vs. consumer price inflation). I agree with Yalie on this one, I side with the deflationists, since it seems that credit is being destroyed faster then Central Banks can ‘print’. They’re trying desperately and the tricky part will be to withdraw this stimulus once credit destruction begins to reverse.

Like or Dislike: 6  3

Wakeup call Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 4:06 pm 131

Rates may not increase over the next few years, but they will eventually. That could be a double whammy after prices have been going down for those few years.

One approaching similarity with Japan is that thy also had an aging population 20 years ago.

Like or Dislike: 4  1

Yalie Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 4:40 pm 132

@Patriotz –

True, asset and price inflation are different, and to be clear, I was mostly referring to asset inflation (as Troll pointed out).

Still, just because they’re different things doesn’t mean they’re unrelated. In the long term, higher asset prices tend to go along with higher consumer prices and vice-versa. The main difference between the two is variance, with assets undergoing much larger and more rapid price swings than consumables.

If you look at Japan, for example, their stock market is down about 75% in the past 20 years and consumer prices are basically unchanged. In the US, stock markets are up about 400% in that time and consumer prices are up around 50%. So clearly the two are related in the long term. They just have vastly different volatility profiles.

And since the central banks target CPI rather than asset prices when setting interest rates (whether this is a good strategy is a separate debate), it seems likely that the course of events will look something like this:

Credit contraction -> asset price deflation -> lower CPI -> low interest rates.

The driver is credit, which, if I’m correct, will be contracting for several years if not more. Which means low interest rates for most of that time.

Note also that I specifically said “lower CPI” and not “negative CPI”. CPI could post small positive gains (say 0 to 1%) and the above causal chain still holds.

Like or Dislike: 2  1

patriotz Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 5:18 pm 133

“Monetary inflation is far more useful to understand”

Hardly, because nobody can come up with a hard definition of money supply in the first place.

Hot debate. What do you think? 7  6

Devore Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 6:03 pm 134

“Groundhog, they don’t show up in sales stats either. So it doesn’t really make much difference, unless there’s a significant change in trend regarding sellers not using realtors.”

Furthermore, it is perfectly legal for sellers to do (not use MLS or any listing service at all), ie private sales, and for the REBGV to not report them, because they run the MLS and report stats sourced from it. I think too many people misunderstand the REBs; they are industry associations, representing and for the benefit of member realtors and brokerages. The MLS is their baby.

While the _ratio_ stats should not be significantly affected by non-MLS listings and sales, as those should mirror, roughly proportionally, the MLS ones,it does distort absolute numbers, especially in distressed market conditions. In the US there has been a significant uptick in FSBOs, as sellers can clearly see vast majority of realtors are not able to improve their property’s chances of selling. You can see the same in the Okanagan region, just take a drive around the lake in the spring and see for yourself the non-trivial number of ‘for sale’ signs that are not MLS represented.

Like or Dislike: 5  0

Groundhog Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 6:26 pm 135

OK maybe I have misunderstood. I understand there are private sales in the market perfectly well, but I thought if a real estate agency that was a member brokerage handled the listing that it would be on MLS.

So 2 questions then. If this house is sold by the agent, does it register in monthly sales stats? Also, assuming it doesn’t sell tomorrow, will it be included in the monthly inventory that will be released?

Like or Dislike: 2  1

Groundhog Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 6:28 pm 136

“While the _ratio_ stats should not be significantly affected by non-MLS listings and sales, as those should mirror, roughly proportionally, the MLS ones,it does distort absolute numbers, especially in distressed market conditions. In the US there has been a significant uptick in FSBOs, as sellers can clearly see vast majority of realtors are not able to improve their property’s chances of selling. You can see the same in the Okanagan region, just take a drive around the lake in the spring and see for yourself the non-trivial number of ‘for sale’ signs that are not MLS represented.”

Maybe I am still being misunderstood. There IS a realtor handling it. It is NOT a For Sale By Owner. That is why I assumed it would be listed under MLS.

Appreciate some clarification on this for my sake!

Like or Dislike: 4  1

Krusty the Clown Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 8:20 pm 137

@ Ulsterman

How does a single mom (who presumably has custody of the child) manage to live in a 1 bedroom apartment?

I have to agree with a previous poster that its a bit of a strange choice, to say the least, for someone with a child to buy a smallish apartment in a trendy area instead of buying a larger more affordable home in another part of town.

Hot debate. What do you think? 11  2

camper Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 8:27 pm 138

A property may be listed with an agency, however for various reasons, it may or may not be advertised on the MLS system. The reasons vary from privacy for the seller to a lower commission rate, to the seller or realtor seeing no advantage to the MLS system for that property. In other words, you may see a sign, there may be a realtor involved, but they kept it off the MLS. If you were interested in the property to view, you would contact the realtor directly. Many of these properties will have “in house” advertising on the realtor’s site. Realtor involvement does not necessarily mean MLS.

Like or Dislike: 6  1

RentersRant Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 9:21 pm 139

So it’s time to move AGAIN. House has been sold. Yes getting a longer lease this time.

But could use your help. (sorry for the long post)

We are looking for a new rental house in North/West Van. Pricing is coming down a bit and it seems more inventory to come, but still seems to have the feeling of “I paid an insane price for my investment house and want YOU to cover the mortgage”.

$3400 for a 1950 3 bedroom in one of the rainiest places in Canada. Really!?

So I was thinking – how about enlisting some crowd sourced help to assist the market towards some sanity. Prices seem to be set by what people list for on CL. A pretty fickle thing driven up by one or two irrational landlords. Well, if a landlord was to receive emails on his ad expressing interest, but saying the price was way above market enough times while their place was not moving, perhaps they might adjust their ask rent downwards. Once a few do the others will too.

So if anyone is bored, and wants to help move the rental market down a bit feel free to pick a few of these listings and help them understand they are way off base.

http://tinyurl.com/rentsanity

Perhaps $.80 per sq foot per month seems a little more sane? Keep it civilized, and report back any funny stories.

Seem a bit too manipulative? Maybe. But so was bringing in crazy mortgage rules (0 down & 40) and dropping interest rates so that sane financially prudent people could no longer see buying where they grew up as an option. And now CREA cries about “Government intervention”. Nice one.



As this is late in the sting, excuse the repost if you see it again tomorrow.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 23  2

Vincent C. Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 9:31 pm 140

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

I was googling Vancouver condos and came across this site. What a loud of bs all of u are. Maybe you haven’t noticed but we live in the best city in the world. You can ski and go to the beach on the same day and everyone wants to live here.

Ive people like all of you in real life. You are bitter angry people. Often racist. You blame others for you lack of success. The worst part is that you drag down impressionable people down with you.

All of you have a mental illness.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 4  38

Just Looking Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 10:20 pm 141

@Vincent C.

Thanks for your thoughtful analysis of real estate in the Vancouver region. Your comment has truly added to this humble site. The data you have brought us provides insight into bearish psychology and are truly incisive. I would suggest you write the data up as an academic paper and submit it to leading research journals in consumer psychology; they would no doubt be snapped up for their rigourous and clear argumentation, able prose style, and the strength of the research methods you have used to come to your conclusions.

Oh wait, no…your comment was rubbish and bereft of any attempt to make a meaningful contribution here. Please learn to think critically, make a reasoned argument and proofread. Then you can come back and tell the bears here why their conclusions are not well-founded based on the available data. I’m not saying 100% of bearish comments here are awesome, but most at least try to contribute.

Hot debate. What do you think? 18  2

Vote Down The Facts Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 10:25 pm 142

RentersRant, if nobody signs a lease then the landlord will be forced to lower the rent anyway. Rents are always set by the market, and are a product of supply and demand – not the weather.

Like or Dislike: 7  1

Girlbear Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 10:43 pm 143

Oh man, it is guys like Vincent C. that make me hope people eat it in this market. Is that evil? Perhaps it is just my mental illness at work…

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  4

oneangryslav2 Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 11:36 pm 144

@ #137:


“I have to agree with a previous poster that its a bit of a strange choice, to say the least, for someone with a child to buy a smallish apartment in a trendy area instead of buying a larger more affordable home in another part of town.”

It’s unfair to label a choice strange without knowing more about the individual’s motivations and desires. Maybe the mother would rather her child grow up on the West Side, with all of its attendant advantages (whether real or perceived), and be willing to sacrifice a bedroom of her own rather than have her own bedroom and live somewhere that is less ideal from her perspective. Moreover, maybe she has family and/or friends in the area who can help with childcare, etc. And what about her job situation? What if she works a short 10-minute walk from her place in Kits, which means that she’s able to spend more time with the child rather than commuting and extra hour to/from work everyday?

Strange? Not in the least.

Hot debate. What do you think? 10  0

@Just Looking Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 11:40 pm 145

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

Well, all the data and analysis the bears have done on this site hasn’t amounted to much. They’ve been wrong for 7 years by some people’s count and for 12 years by others.

If any of you knew more than the average sheeple on the street you would have bought and sold a place a long time ago.

The truth is that you don’t know any better. You’re all just guessing like the rest of us. But I guess your “analysis” helps you sleep better at night despite being on the wrong side of the housing trade for almost a decade and counting.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 5  21

Slavery Says:
December 30th, 2012 at 11:42 pm 146

Is debt slavery an option for people who can’t pay their bills?

Like or Dislike: 2  0

Anonymous Says:
December 31st, 2012 at 9:52 am 147

“Why should this not be listed on MLS? Call me crazy but it reeks of end of month data window dressing to me.”

The listing likely expired and the realtor is waiting until Jan to relist when more potential buyers are actively looking. This is the reason listings go down over Xmas. Technically there are still the same amount of properties for sale. It is just the way the seller and realtor decide to market it. The newer the listing appears the better.

Regarding window dressing of stats. The only stat that matters ito a realtor is his or her sales.

Like or Dislike: 4  1