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Bob Arctor
Member
Bob Arctor
3 years 5 months ago

“David Rosenberg: Why I am bullish on Canada”
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/productiveconversations/David+Rosenberg+bullish+Canada/7649889/story.html?__lsa=185f-99a2

“…while the U.S. economy is being propelled by housing — which does not exactly enhance the country’s productive capital stock — the Canadian expansion is no longer dependent on real estate, but now hinges more deeply on business capital spending. That is a huge qualitative difference.”

Guess we don’t need to worry about a downturn in real estate…

jay
Guest
3 years 5 months ago

Not a good time to buy, although timing the market is difficult.
There are about 100 SFH in Point Grey area, with a median price of 2.5 million dollars. Yeah, price is not going down, as there is hardly any sales in the last few months!

G Master
Guest
G Master
3 years 5 months ago

I also heard a local realtor said it’s a great time to sell your properties now, because the price will drop more .

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon
3 years 5 months ago
“Don’t Confuse A ‘Buyer’s Market’ With A True Buyer’s Market” The RE Board of Vancouver uses the ratio of sales to listings to decide whether to call the market a ‘seller’s market’, ‘balanced’, or a ‘buyer’s market’. Thus, if listings are high and sales are low (as they are at present), it is automatically deemed to be a ‘buyer’s market’. This ratio can also be expressed as MOI (or ‘months of inventory’), the theoretical number of months that sales at the current pace would ‘clear’ the inventory (total listings). There is a good correlation between high MOI and downward pressure… Read more »
Joe Q
Guest
Joe Q
3 years 5 months ago

You’ll know it’s a good time to buy when it’s 12 months after the MSM declares that the bubble has popped.

I’m starting to wonder which outlet will have the guts to call this for what it is first. So far everyone is treating it with kid gloves.

vanpire
Guest
vanpire
3 years 5 months ago
“Real estate operates on cycles, this is a rare time when prices are going down rather than up”. Ahh, but real estate does indeed operate in cycles? I thought it only goes up, no? Why the sudden change in your mantra, Mr REALTOR? So, if I got this right, the prices are STILL in the process of going down, right? The mega-rare occurrence of the epic proportions is actually happening right now? And with no sign of being over anytime soon? Well then why in the world it would be a good time to buy today and not tomorrow or… Read more »
Bear! Bear! Bear!
Guest
Bear! Bear! Bear!
3 years 5 months ago

Good time to buy? Yeah right! They also said it was a good time to buy in 2005-2011. But I didn’t listen to them. And look at me now!

bubbly
Member
bubbly
3 years 5 months ago

I stopped reading at “bargain hunters”. There are zero bargains in this city.
Most used house salesmen are slime…

Con-Rad
Guest
Con-Rad
3 years 5 months ago

@bubbly: orly? Some guy was blathering on about 4% cap rate is ‘normal’ for Kits/sGranville. Your city is full of people who only know real estate. They will destroy any chance of a hard landing by being dumb all the way down. My prediction.

Bob Arctor
Member
Bob Arctor
3 years 5 months ago
gordholio
Member
3 years 5 months ago
Dear Cam Good: “Last down turn I personally know many people that bought at a low price and sold for a high price and made more money in just one transaction than they could in 3-5 years working their day job.” 1) This passage exemplifies precisely what’s been wrong with real estate here in the Best Rainforest on Earth lo these past few years – it’s been treated as an investment. A stock. A *penny* stock. Buy now, hold for a wee bit, then sell for a profit. C’mon! Everybody’s doing it! But even if you do view it as… Read more »
Brian
Guest
3 years 5 months ago

The realtors having trouble making payment s on his C class Benz. Don’t fault him

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 5 months ago

I would like to point out that my comment about $300 day referred to business days, so about $6000 to $7000 a month based on current rates of price declines.

raincity
Guest
raincity
3 years 5 months ago

@Best place on meth: Is that for Single Family Homes or Condos?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

Yes, prices have been falling for a few months in a multi-year cycle. It’s a great horrible time to buy.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

@Con-Rad:

Your city is full of people who only know real estate. They will destroy any chance of a hard landing be destroyed financially by being dumb all the way down.

Fixed that for you.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks
3 years 5 months ago

@Best place on meth: $300 a day with weekends off is around $75k/year, which is above the median household income here in Vancouver. Not buying a condo looks like a pretty good career lately, though you don’t get vacation time — sorry, it’s $300/weekday right through the summer — or a benefits package.

VMD
Member
3 years 5 months ago
Bank of Canada issues harsh warning on condo market Dec 6, 2012 The Bank of Canada issued a harsh warning today about overbuilding of high-rise housing, notably condos. “In the current context, a specific concern is that the total number of housing units under construction has been increasing and is now well above its historical average relative to the population,” the central bank said in its financial system review. As Canada’s housing market cools, the condo sector has been of particular concern, notably in Toronto and Vancouver. Sales in both cities are down sharply after the federal government moved again… Read more »
rp1
Guest
rp1
3 years 5 months ago

@Con-Rad: “Your city is full of people who only know real estate. They will destroy any chance of a hard landing by being dumb all the way down.”

I think that will guarantee a hard landing because it is precisely those people who have pigged out on debt to buy as much real estate as they can. You only have cash if you abstained or sold. That means you’re either broke, or you’re looking at the investment case. It’s a long way down baby.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

@bubbly: “Most used house salesmen are slime…”

That’s not very flattering to slime.

Jason
Guest
Jason
3 years 5 months ago

Here is another deferred project, SOLO phases 2-4 in Burnaby. This is twice the dollar value of the one Onni just put off in North Van. The salient lines to me are: “The overall construction schedule for the next phases are undetermined (pending the speed of presales). Update in late 2013.”

http://tiny.cc/msswow

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 5 months ago

@Many Franks: “Not buying a condo looks like a pretty good career lately”

I’m going to not buy 5!

JR
Guest
JR
3 years 5 months ago

@VMD: Oh, isn’t that funny…

“In the current context, a specific concern is that the total number of housing units under construction has been increasing and is now well above its historical average relative to the population,” the central bank said in its financial system review.”

I was saying a few days ago and getting some downvotes. Like I said, what caused the crash in the US, not to be confused with the bubble (we all know what caused this in the US and here), was an acceleration of building and new inventory at and over the top.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 5 months ago

I should point out that I was basing the $300 on business days, not calendar days.

That would be around $6000-7000 a month at current price decreases.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

@Vote Down The Facts: “I’m going to not buy 5!”

I not buy tree, my huzba not by tree.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 5 months ago

Disregard the duplicate post, the site has been acting up.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 5 months ago

@raincity:

“Is that for Single Family Homes or Condos?”

It’s the aggregate for all real estate in the REBGV areas.

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 5 months ago

@Jason: “Here is another deferred project, SOLO phases 2-4 in Burnaby.”

So, this is a key thing for construction employment in 2013-14. No new projects starting means construction employment falls. Added to the retail weakness because of maxed out HELOCs, I can’t see strong employment situation going on in 2013-14. Perhaps, this will generate some ‘need to sells’; today the languishing listings indicates to me that most people are ‘would like to sells’ not ‘need to sells’. For big quick market crashes, we need many more ‘need to sells’.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 5 months ago
@ VMD Thanks for posting. That BoC report is very interesting from the point of view of understanding where the average “big money” investor sits on RE and why, at current, very high multiples are being sustained in Canadian banking etc. I’m attaching a direct link to the BoC report here: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/fsr-1212.pdf I think the fact we bears tend to gloss over, but really underlies some of the stickiness in home pricing in the past couple of years is the issue of monthly affordability. The chart on p. 28, really puts together what the impact of lower mortgage rates has… Read more »
jesse
Member
3 years 5 months ago
@HAM Solo: Agreed here, the FSR never mentioned housing liquidity risk, only concentrating on existing homeowners’ abilities to service existing debts. They did mention the interrelated factors of employment to construction and housing (p28): Price corrections in particular segments of the housing market may put downward pressure on house prices more generally. This would likely lead to a decline in housing activity, adversely affecting household incomes and employment, as well as confidence and household net worth, which would in turn reduce household spending. As the declines in incomes and employment impair households’ ability to service their debt, loan losses at… Read more »
HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 5 months ago

sorry, should have read “making affordability worse” in para 4 below.

Facebook has an option to edit your comments once posted. I wonder if there is the ability to do that here?

gokou3
Guest
gokou3
3 years 5 months ago

I will know it’s a good time to buy when MSM talks about the merits of renting over owning, such as this US article from May 2011:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/12/building-wealth-through-renting/

gokou3
Guest
gokou3
3 years 5 months ago

@VHB: “No new projects starting means construction employment falls. Added to the retail weakness because of maxed out HELOCs, I can’t see strong employment situation going on in 2013-14. Perhaps, this will generate some ‘need to sells’”

A.K.A. the vicious cycle or “circling down the drain”.

bob the builder
Guest
bob the builder
3 years 5 months ago
re shorting Kyle Bass fund shorting Japan hit the dust..not so easy, Bass lost lot’s of his and others people money ” Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management, for example, has been shorting Japanese government bonds, expecting that Japan is on the verge of devaluing the yen. Just recently, Bass released a 30-page paper to defend his Japan thesis. Read the Kyle Bass report. Except Bass has likely lost a tremendous amount of money on this bet. According to a letter I obtained in May, Bass’s Japan Macro fund was down 60% since its inception in July 2010. The fund… Read more »
data junkie
Guest
data junkie
3 years 5 months ago

I just wanted to let the wider Bear Community know that I met with our very own Paul B last weekend, as I’m currently poking around a certain subset of the market where prices make sense ($300/sqft, now that I can deal with!). He was great to work with and I’d heartily endorse him as an agent when you’re ready to make a purchase.

VMD
Member
3 years 5 months ago

@VMD:
This is worth noting in the BoC statement: (p.29 in the actual report)
“They may also cause house prices to fall below the level required to correct any initial overvaluation”

ie. the tendency/possibility for RE bubble to over-correct.

Village Whisperer
Member
Village Whisperer
3 years 5 months ago

How low will it go?

An older Richmond condo in foreclosure has asking price dropped to 47% below assessed value.

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/12/thurs-post-2-holy-asset-depreciation.html

patriotz
Member
3 years 5 months ago
@HAM Solo: ” So I would look for a comparatively early bid for toxic mortgages by the BOC…which is probably going to be associated with some kind of financial relief package for the country’s bad borrowers.” The amount of “toxic” mortgages, i.e. which are not marketable except at a severe discount, is negligible in Canada compared to the total amount of mortgages outstanding. That’s because all high-ratio mortgages by banks are insured. Non-bank high ratio lenders are already facing the music and there’s no reason – economic or political – for the BoC or GoC to try to rescue them.… Read more »
/dev/null
Member
/dev/null
3 years 5 months ago

Stephen Gordon (worth following on Twitter at @stephenfgordon) discusses the demographic headwinds that housing and stocks face:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/12/03/attention-boomers-why-demographics-threatens-your-retirement/

Ralph Cramdown
Guest
Ralph Cramdown
3 years 5 months ago
@HAM Solo: “So I would look for a comparatively early bid for toxic mortgages by the BOC…which is probably going to be associated with some kind of financial relief package for the country’s bad borrowers.” I’m not seeing it. I think the boffins at Finance are resigned to a correction and the pols want to get it over with before the next election, not have it drag on for half a decade or more. Even at the worst of it, the best the US could come up with was tax relief on short sales (when the bank wrote down your… Read more »
rp1
Guest
rp1
3 years 5 months ago

#18 @VMD: That just means the Bank of Canada doesn’t want to buy them. They can’t admit that they’ll monetize the bad debt or we’ll get 800 new skyscrapers instead of 200.

The Fed owns every vacant strip mall in America. The BoC is trying to say they’re different. Who would believe them? Not me. I don’t see one thing they’ve done differently.

rp1
Guest
rp1
3 years 5 months ago

@/dev/null: #39 stocks don’t have a demographic headwind, they have a valuation headwind. People don’t own enough stocks now. They have way too much in bonds.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 5 months ago

@Village Whisperer:

It’s a non-story until the potential buyers have submitted their offers in court.

raincity
Guest
raincity
3 years 5 months ago

@Best place on meth: so whats the daily change on the west side house I’m renting? Is that in a stats package somewhere?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 5 months ago

@raincity:

West side SFH fell 1.6% last month, or by $33,000.

A little over $1500 per business day.

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/201211-REBGV-Stats-Package.pdf

VMD
Member
3 years 5 months ago

@raincity:
Van West SFH HPI:
Apr 2012: $2268600 (peak)
Nov 2012: $2029300

Drop: $239,300 in 7 months
or $34,186/month

raincity
Guest
raincity
3 years 5 months ago

@VMD & BPOM:

$33,000 per month?!?

Thanks! I feel very good about my rent now, think I’ll go buy a new car or take a vacation. 😀

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 5 months ago

@raincity:

“I feel very good about my rent now, think I’ll go buy a new car or take a vacation.”

It’s a great time to buy!

Don’t flaunt it though, you’ll make the realtors jealous.

mac
Member
mac
3 years 5 months ago

@VMD: Shhhhh…. I wish these guys would shut up. They’re spooking the developers just behind the Olympic Village. STILL no ground has been broken on West. And they’ve SOLD OUT 70%!!! What are they waiting for? Bring on the diggers and the increased inventory.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks
3 years 5 months ago

@Best place on meth: That’s it, I’m going to upgrade from not buying a condo to not buying a house. Ka-ching!

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