Great Time To Buy Real Estate In Vancouver

The following was submitted by a local realtor, we have removed identifying information because we have a policy against using story submission as a promotional tool, but their post is the flipside opinion of what is normally covered here.

The realtor is welcome to identify themselves in the comment section below, but before they do they should understand that this site is visited by a few thousand people a day who believe that now is one of the worst times to buy real estate and there is no active policing of comments on this site. All comments are self moderated by the readership of this blog.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver released its new numbers suggesting that sales are down 28.6 per cent since November 2011 and down 12.7 compared to October 2012.

Some may view this as a negative thing, others, the bargain hunters view it as a positive. Its a buyers market where where a buyer could save thousands or perhaps hundreds of thousands on a property that just six months ago was selling at a substantially higher amount. Real estate operates on cycles, this is a rare time when prices are going down rather than up. Last down turn I personally know many people that bought at a low price and sold for a high price and made more money in just one transaction than they could in 3-5 years working their day job.

I strongly believe that this is the opportunity that many people have been waiting for. We can sit on the sideline and a few years from know talk about the opportunity that was missed, or buy now and profit from the downturn.

Many visitors here will likely have opinions on timing this particular market cycle so we won’t opine on that, but this comment from Best Place on Meth points out that at the current rate of decline the benchmark price of a REBGV home is falling at $300 per day. So if you’re paying less than $300/day or $9000 per month for your housing in Vancouver you’re doing ok.

79 Responses to “Great Time To Buy Real Estate In Vancouver”

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    Bob Arctor Bob Arctor Says:
    1

    “David Rosenberg: Why I am bullish on Canada”
    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/productiveconversations/David+Rosenberg+bullish+Canada/7649889/story.html?__lsa=185f-99a2

    “…while the U.S. economy is being propelled by housing — which does not exactly enhance the country’s productive capital stock — the Canadian expansion is no longer dependent on real estate, but now hinges more deeply on business capital spending. That is a huge qualitative difference.”

    Guess we don’t need to worry about a downturn in real estate…

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 0

    Not a good time to buy, although timing the market is difficult.
    There are about 100 SFH in Point Grey area, with a median price of 2.5 million dollars. Yeah, price is not going down, as there is hardly any sales in the last few months!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 0

    I also heard a local realtor said it’s a great time to sell your properties now, because the price will drop more .

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 34 Thumb down 0

    “Don’t Confuse A ‘Buyer’s Market’ With A True Buyer’s Market”

    The RE Board of Vancouver uses the ratio of sales to listings to decide whether to call the market a ‘seller’s market’, ‘balanced’, or a ‘buyer’s market’. Thus, if listings are high and sales are low (as they are at present), it is automatically deemed to be a ‘buyer’s market’.

    This ratio can also be expressed as MOI (or ‘months of inventory’), the theoretical number of months that sales at the current pace would ‘clear’ the inventory (total listings). There is a good correlation between high MOI and downward pressure on prices. See jesse’s articles at ‘Housing Analysis’ for eloquent discussion of that relationship.
    Thus, when the REBGV refer to a ‘buyer’s market’, they mean one where sales are low compared to total listing. Note that this in no way refers to absolute price levels. Yes, it is better for a buyer if there is a low sales:listing ratio and downward pressure on prices (more homes to consider, less time pressure, more bargaining strength) BUT it is immediately apparent that absolute price levels are far, far more important to a buyer. The buyer gets more for their money when prices are lower.

    In our own terms, and from the perspective of the vast majority of prospective buyers, it is far better to buy a property that is priced at fair value than it is to buy a very, very over-priced property that happens to be falling in price from very, very over-priced to merely very over-priced.

    A true buyer’s market is one where the buyer receives good, or at least fair, value for their money.

    Vancouver prices have only recently begun to weaken from their stratospheric heights.
    By fundamental measures, they ran up, in the speculative mania of 2003-2011, to levels that are two to three times fair value. Prices have weakened by about 3%-14% since the 2011 peak, depending on which sector you look at, and which price measures you use.
    This is not by any sensible measure now a true buyer’s market. It’ll be a buyer’s market when prices hit the vague vicinity of fair value; they still have a long way to go downward prior to that.

    http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/07/04/dont-confuse-a-buyers-market-with-a-true-buyers-market/

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 0

    You’ll know it’s a good time to buy when it’s 12 months after the MSM declares that the bubble has popped.

    I’m starting to wonder which outlet will have the guts to call this for what it is first. So far everyone is treating it with kid gloves.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 1

    “Real estate operates on cycles, this is a rare time when prices are going down rather than up”.
    Ahh, but real estate does indeed operate in cycles?
    I thought it only goes up, no?
    Why the sudden change in your mantra, Mr REALTOR?

    So, if I got this right, the prices are STILL in the process of going down, right? The mega-rare occurrence of the epic proportions is actually happening right now? And with no sign of being over anytime soon? Well then why in the world it would be a good time to buy today and not tomorrow or perhaps in a week, a month or a year??? $300 a day seems like a pretty good incentive to postpone the urge, me thinks.

    No matter how simple and gullible we are, we should all be able to understand the concept. Come on, Mr.REALTOR, give all those stubborn soon-to-be buyers a bit more credit.
    Unless of course you are worried about the empty stocking this Christmas. Hey, there’s a food bank around the corner – I’m sure you contributed plenty when the going was good, no shame in getting some back now that the tide has turned. We won’t mind.
    And you can dip into your RRSP to weather out the storm. Don’t have one? Ooops…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    Bear! Bear! Bear! Says:
    7

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 13

    I stopped reading at “bargain hunters”. There are zero bargains in this city.
    Most used house salesmen are slime…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    @bubbly: orly? Some guy was blathering on about 4% cap rate is ‘normal’ for Kits/sGranville. Your city is full of people who only know real estate. They will destroy any chance of a hard landing by being dumb all the way down. My prediction.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

    Bob Arctor Bob Arctor Says:
    10

    “Don Coxe: Why Canadian banks are on ‘financial heroin'”
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-don-coxe-why-canadian-banks-are-on-financial-heroin/article5998098/

    Worth watching…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    gordholio Says:
    11

    Dear Cam Good:

    “Last down turn I personally know many people that bought at a low price and sold for a high price and made more money in just one transaction than they could in 3-5 years working their day job.”

    1) This passage exemplifies precisely what’s been wrong with real estate here in the Best Rainforest on Earth lo these past few years – it’s been treated as an investment. A stock. A *penny* stock. Buy now, hold for a wee bit, then sell for a profit. C’mon! Everybody’s doing it!

    But even if you do view it as nothing more than a quick money-maker, you’d be ignoring all logic by buying now. Indeed, smart investors pulled out quite some time ago and moved on to the next Nortel. Cam, deep down in your greedy, evil heart, you know this to me true. Every ten dollars an already indebted victim, er…buyer shovels into this deflating bubble now will net that victim five or six by the middle of this decade. Minus realtor and transaction fees, of course.

    3) “Down turn” is one word. “Know” should be “now.” “Bargain hunters” should be followed by a comma. “Buyers” lacks an apostrophe. I could go on, but I just don’t have the time. Nevertheless, one thing is certain. Given the grammatical, spelling, and punctuation errors, the authenticity of this “story” cannot be doubted. It is clearly the work of a realtor.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    The realtors having trouble making payment s on his C class Benz. Don’t fault him

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    13

    I would like to point out that my comment about $300 day referred to business days, so about $6000 to $7000 a month based on current rates of price declines.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    raincity Says:
    14

    @Best place on meth: Is that for Single Family Homes or Condos?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    15

    Yes, prices have been falling for a few months in a multi-year cycle. It’s a great horrible time to buy.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    16

    @Con-Rad:

    Your city is full of people who only know real estate. They will destroy any chance of a hard landing be destroyed financially by being dumb all the way down.

    Fixed that for you.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    Many Franks Says:
    17

    @Best place on meth: $300 a day with weekends off is around $75k/year, which is above the median household income here in Vancouver. Not buying a condo looks like a pretty good career lately, though you don’t get vacation time — sorry, it’s $300/weekday right through the summer — or a benefits package.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    Bank of Canada issues harsh warning on condo market
    Dec 6, 2012
    The Bank of Canada issued a harsh warning today about overbuilding of high-rise housing, notably condos.

    “In the current context, a specific concern is that the total number of housing units under construction has been increasing and is now well above its historical average relative to the population,” the central bank said in its financial system review.

    As Canada’s housing market cools, the condo sector has been of particular concern, notably in Toronto and Vancouver. Sales in both cities are down sharply after the federal government moved again in July to cool things down.

    Bank of Canada again voiced in concern over the vulnerability of consumers to “economic shocks,” such as a housing bust or a spike in unemployment.

    “As the declines in incomes and employment impair households’ ability to service their debt, loan losses at financial institutions would likely rise. These effects may be amplified by tighter borrowing conditions as lenders come under increased stress. These interrelated factors would further dampen economic activity and add to the strains on household and bank balance sheets. They may also cause house prices to fall below the level required to correct any initial overvaluation.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    @Con-Rad: “Your city is full of people who only know real estate. They will destroy any chance of a hard landing by being dumb all the way down.”

    I think that will guarantee a hard landing because it is precisely those people who have pigged out on debt to buy as much real estate as they can. You only have cash if you abstained or sold. That means you’re either broke, or you’re looking at the investment case. It’s a long way down baby.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    20

    @bubbly: “Most used house salesmen are slime…”

    That’s not very flattering to slime.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Here is another deferred project, SOLO phases 2-4 in Burnaby. This is twice the dollar value of the one Onni just put off in North Van. The salient lines to me are: “The overall construction schedule for the next phases are undetermined (pending the speed of presales). Update in late 2013.”

    http://tiny.cc/msswow

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    22

    @Many Franks: “Not buying a condo looks like a pretty good career lately”

    I’m going to not buy 5!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    @VMD: Oh, isn’t that funny…

    “In the current context, a specific concern is that the total number of housing units under construction has been increasing and is now well above its historical average relative to the population,” the central bank said in its financial system review.”

    I was saying a few days ago and getting some downvotes. Like I said, what caused the crash in the US, not to be confused with the bubble (we all know what caused this in the US and here), was an acceleration of building and new inventory at and over the top.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    24

    I should point out that I was basing the $300 on business days, not calendar days.

    That would be around $6000-7000 a month at current price decreases.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    25

    @Vote Down The Facts: “I’m going to not buy 5!”

    I not buy tree, my huzba not by tree.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    26

    Disregard the duplicate post, the site has been acting up.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    27

    @raincity:

    “Is that for Single Family Homes or Condos?”

    It’s the aggregate for all real estate in the REBGV areas.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Jason: “Here is another deferred project, SOLO phases 2-4 in Burnaby.”

    So, this is a key thing for construction employment in 2013-14. No new projects starting means construction employment falls. Added to the retail weakness because of maxed out HELOCs, I can’t see strong employment situation going on in 2013-14. Perhaps, this will generate some ‘need to sells'; today the languishing listings indicates to me that most people are ‘would like to sells’ not ‘need to sells’. For big quick market crashes, we need many more ‘need to sells’.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    HAM Solo Says:
    29

    @ VMD

    Thanks for posting. That BoC report is very interesting from the point of view of understanding where the average “big money” investor sits on RE and why, at current, very high multiples are being sustained in Canadian banking etc. I’m attaching a direct link to the BoC report here:

    http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/fsr-1212.pdf

    I think the fact we bears tend to gloss over, but really underlies some of the stickiness in home pricing in the past couple of years is the issue of monthly affordability. The chart on p. 28, really puts together what the impact of lower mortgage rates has been on affordability. Really, the high prices have been mostly manageable due to a combination of lower market interest rates, a collapsing risk premium vs gov’t bonds as CMHC took virtually every loan, and borrowers shortening up the duration on high LTV mortgages to take advantage of lower 6 month or 1 year rates.

    However, the BoC and the Bay Street boys are still missing the vast importance of home building / financing / renovation / selling on the economy as a whole, which really dominates the private-sector tax-paying part of the Canadian economy. The massive level of recent investment in housing has created a bust because we are really out of logical buyers. The CMHC changes kicked the legs out of speculative purchases. Therefore, I expect the affordability will change because employment income in the housing areas must drop.

    A negative affordability feedback loop once home prices and incomes drop is that credit dries up and so a lot of borrowers will end up paying higher rates on either their mortgage or consumer debt, making affordability better.

    One more point. It looks like the BoC is saying on p. 34 that they have “room” to expand the balance sheet if need be, as they compare themselves to other players. So I would look for a comparatively early bid for toxic mortgages by the BOC…which is probably going to be associated with some kind of financial relief package for the country’s bad borrowers. Too a degree, this may be bad news for scrupulous people who have stayed out of the market, and good news for some leveraged fools, perhaps. However, that relief may still be a couple of years away, and a lot of suckers are going to get taken down first.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    @HAM Solo: Agreed here, the FSR never mentioned housing liquidity risk, only concentrating on existing homeowners’ abilities to service existing debts.

    They did mention the interrelated factors of employment to construction and housing (p28):

    Price corrections in particular segments of the housing market may put downward pressure on house prices more generally. This would likely lead to a decline in housing activity, adversely affecting household incomes and employment, as well as confidence and household net worth, which would in turn reduce household spending. As the declines in incomes and employment impair households’ ability to service their debt, loan losses at financial institutions would likely rise. These effects may be amplified by tighter borrowing conditions as lenders come under increased stress. These interrelated factors would further dampen economic activity and add to the strains on household and bank balance sheets. They may also cause house prices to fall below the level required to correct any initial overvaluation.

    In the case of a direct shock to the labour market, a sharp rise in the unemployment rate would have adverse macrofinancial effects similar to those described for the house-price shock. The effects of weaker labour market conditions are examined below in an update of the household stress test reported in the June 2012 FSR.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    HAM Solo Says:
    31

    sorry, should have read “making affordability worse” in para 4 below.

    Facebook has an option to edit your comments once posted. I wonder if there is the ability to do that here?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

    I will know it’s a good time to buy when MSM talks about the merits of renting over owning, such as this US article from May 2011:

    http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/12/building-wealth-through-renting/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @VHB: “No new projects starting means construction employment falls. Added to the retail weakness because of maxed out HELOCs, I can’t see strong employment situation going on in 2013-14. Perhaps, this will generate some ‘need to sells’”

    A.K.A. the vicious cycle or “circling down the drain”.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    bob the builder Says:
    34

    re shorting
    Kyle Bass fund shorting Japan hit the dust..not so easy, Bass lost lot’s of his and others people money

    ” Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management, for example, has been shorting Japanese government bonds, expecting that Japan is on the verge of devaluing the yen. Just recently, Bass released a 30-page paper to defend his Japan thesis. Read the Kyle Bass report.

    Except Bass has likely lost a tremendous amount of money on this bet. According to a letter I obtained in May, Bass’s Japan Macro fund was down 60% since its inception in July 2010. The fund is set to close three years after its launch, which means participants aren’t likely to realize any profits. ”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hedge-fund-stars-bet-against-us-is-a-mistake-2012-12-06?link=MW_home_latest_news

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    data junkie Says:
    35

    I just wanted to let the wider Bear Community know that I met with our very own Paul B last weekend, as I’m currently poking around a certain subset of the market where prices make sense ($300/sqft, now that I can deal with!). He was great to work with and I’d heartily endorse him as an agent when you’re ready to make a purchase.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    @VMD:
    This is worth noting in the BoC statement: (p.29 in the actual report)
    “They may also cause house prices to fall below the level required to correct any initial overvaluation”

    ie. the tendency/possibility for RE bubble to over-correct.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Village Whisperer Village Whisperer Says:
    37

    How low will it go?

    An older Richmond condo in foreclosure has asking price dropped to 47% below assessed value.

    http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/12/thurs-post-2-holy-asset-depreciation.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    38

    @HAM Solo:
    ” So I would look for a comparatively early bid for toxic mortgages by the BOC…which is probably going to be associated with some kind of financial relief package for the country’s bad borrowers.”

    The amount of “toxic” mortgages, i.e. which are not marketable except at a severe discount, is negligible in Canada compared to the total amount of mortgages outstanding. That’s because all high-ratio mortgages by banks are insured.

    Non-bank high ratio lenders are already facing the music and there’s no reason – economic or political – for the BoC or GoC to try to rescue them.

    The BoC might well buy up insured mortgages but that’s not effectively different from buying GoC debt which they do all the time.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    /dev/null Says:
    39

    Stephen Gordon (worth following on Twitter at @stephenfgordon) discusses the demographic headwinds that housing and stocks face:

    http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/12/03/attention-boomers-why-demographics-threatens-your-retirement/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Ralph Cramdown Says:
    40

    @HAM Solo: “So I would look for a comparatively early bid for toxic mortgages by the BOC…which is probably going to be associated with some kind of financial relief package for the country’s bad borrowers.”

    I’m not seeing it. I think the boffins at Finance are resigned to a correction and the pols want to get it over with before the next election, not have it drag on for half a decade or more. Even at the worst of it, the best the US could come up with was tax relief on short sales (when the bank wrote down your loan to the sale price of your house, that was considered taxable income) and an $8k first time buyers’ credit.

    It’s important to remember that, when it gets bad, a central bank can advance credit but can’t force the banks to lend; the banks just hunker down, buy government bonds and rebuild their balance sheets. The best way for a government to stimulate is to spend money, buy building bridges, highways, nuclear power plants and the like. But the belt-tightening gang is allergic to logic. We’ll get around to infrastructure later, when unemployment is lower and borrowing rates higher.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    #18 @VMD: That just means the Bank of Canada doesn’t want to buy them. They can’t admit that they’ll monetize the bad debt or we’ll get 800 new skyscrapers instead of 200.

    The Fed owns every vacant strip mall in America. The BoC is trying to say they’re different. Who would believe them? Not me. I don’t see one thing they’ve done differently.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    @/dev/null: #39 stocks don’t have a demographic headwind, they have a valuation headwind. People don’t own enough stocks now. They have way too much in bonds.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    43

    @Village Whisperer:

    It’s a non-story until the potential buyers have submitted their offers in court.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    raincity Says:
    44

    @Best place on meth: so whats the daily change on the west side house I’m renting? Is that in a stats package somewhere?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    45

    @raincity:

    West side SFH fell 1.6% last month, or by $33,000.

    A little over $1500 per business day.

    http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/201211-REBGV-Stats-Package.pdf

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    @raincity:
    Van West SFH HPI:
    Apr 2012: $2268600 (peak)
    Nov 2012: $2029300

    Drop: $239,300 in 7 months
    or $34,186/month

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

    raincity Says:
    47

    @VMD & BPOM:

    $33,000 per month?!?

    Thanks! I feel very good about my rent now, think I’ll go buy a new car or take a vacation. :D

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    48

    @raincity:

    “I feel very good about my rent now, think I’ll go buy a new car or take a vacation.”

    It’s a great time to buy!

    Don’t flaunt it though, you’ll make the realtors jealous.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    @VMD: Shhhhh…. I wish these guys would shut up. They’re spooking the developers just behind the Olympic Village. STILL no ground has been broken on West. And they’ve SOLD OUT 70%!!! What are they waiting for? Bring on the diggers and the increased inventory.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Many Franks Says:
    50

    @Best place on meth: That’s it, I’m going to upgrade from not buying a condo to not buying a house. Ka-ching!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    51

    @Many Franks:

    Money in the bank, baby!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    52

    I’d like to see someone come out on TV as the anti-Tom Vu and tell people how to become rich by NOT buying real estate.

    Same fancy car, same bikini girls, same big house – only rented.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    Girlbear Says:
    53

    I feel like realtor commissions could start to become negotiable…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    54

    @Girlbear:
    They have always been negotiable. I think what you mean is that the negotiating power will shift away from the agents.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    55

    Fed’s Q3 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt down $1.15 Trillion from Peak
    Take a good look at the third graph. Mortgage debt peaked two years after house prices. If the same thing happens in Canada – which is likely IMHO – it will severely limit the government’s ability to engineer a “soft landing”, as there will be repercussions if it is seen to be abandoning its stated commitment to bring consumer debt under control.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Keeping An Eye On The Pimps Says:
    56

    “I strongly believe that this is the opportunity that many people have been waiting for. We can sit on the sideline and a few years from know talk about the opportunity that was missed, or buy now and profit from the downturn.”

    Too funny.

    Talk about Big Trouble in Little China.

    There is nothing left on this carcass.

    The vultures have also finished eating their young.

    Nobody left to buy except those who can’t afford it; and a few who can afford it, but have calculators.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:

    December 6th, 2012 at 4:16 pm

    I’d like to see someone come out on TV as the anti-Tom Vu and tell people how to become rich by NOT buying real estate.

    Same fancy car, same bikini girls, same big house – only rented.

    ————————————-
    Meth,

    Perhaps you can do it.

    Call yourself Lord, I don’t own Jack!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    @Girlbear: “I feel like realtor commissions could start to become negotiable…”

    As patriotz stated, they always have been — seen it many times over the past decade — the question now is who the Realtors are likely to light a fire under to close. In current conditions owners trying to sell will be all the more desperate to secure a sale. Example if you’re an owner trying to sell and you want a quick sale, which Realtor do you chose: the one who discounts or the full-service one who markets the crap out of the property? Further, as a Realtor, you’re looking to get clients most likely to produce a sale. In the US Realtors were known for triaging listings, kicking aside owners who had unrealistic expectations, and putting all their efforts into ones with a snowball’s chance.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    ReadyToPop Says:
    59

    @JR

    I was saying a few days ago and getting some downvotes. Like I said, what caused the crash in the US, not to be confused with the bubble (we all know what caused this in the US and here), was an acceleration of building and new inventory at and over the top.

    You are clearly confused about cause and effect. Excessive supply (effect) is a lagging indicator of excessive demand (cause). In this case fuelled by excesses in housing finance.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    New Listings 72
    Price Changes 52
    Sold Listings 52
    TI:15791

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 0

    Dec-2012	
    Total days	19
    Days elapsed so far	4
    Weekends / holidays	2
    Days missing	0
    Days remaining	15
    7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	70
    7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	104
    SALES	
    Sales so far	280
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1047
    Projected month end total	1327
    NEW LISTINGS	
    Listings so far	430
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1560
    Projected month end total	1990
    Sell-list so far	65.1%
    Projected month-end sell-list	66.7%
    MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
    Inventory as of December 5, 2012	15791
    Current MoI at this sales pace	11.90
    

    so when are those 100% sell-list days we always get in December gonna happen?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    YLTNboomerang Says:
    62

    @patriotz: If you’re a buyer, I bet you could get a realtor to work for you and write you a cheque upon purchase.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    63

    @Best place on methiguana…yeah, I can see it now: ‘this million dollar home and all these girls can be yours for only $2500 dolla! Only loser buy home!’

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    To come in at December -26% from Sep-Nov sales average, we will need to average 61 sales per day. The first 5 days of December 2010-11 averaged about 17% higher than the month-end average. That means it’s likely that December is front-loaded with sales. (I don’t have data for the last couple of weeks of December.)

    VHB is showing a rolling average of 70 daily sales. -17% would put average daily sales around 58 by month-end. That would be 1100 sales for the month. This is derated slightly since REBGV does not count some sales paulb reports so at this pace, using the last two years as a gauge, there is a plausible scenario we will see less than 1100 sales for December.

    My estimate on Tuesday was for December to finish with 1159 sales. Based on these calculations we are currently trending to be lower than this. We will know more by the end of next week. Not that it matters much; no matter the outcome sales will be “weak”.

    Munch munch munch…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    This is NOT good for my “rage”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    @jesse: Sounds interesting. Has all the bubble talk permeated down to enough water coolers that more people are holding back from buying? Or is it people who want to buy who cannot because of credit? If the ‘can but don’t want to’ set gets bigger, things start getting interesting.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    67

    After the crash, demographics don’t look good for a recovery…….. ever (according to this http://www.businessinsider.com/matt-kings-most-depressing-slide-ever-2012-12)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    umm there is something wrong with this site today right?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    69

    @vangrl: Yeah, site is acting up. REA sponsored hack?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    omg can you only imagine being Cam Good right now …

    i see his website is “under construction”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    @vangrl: Numbers are too depressing to comment, even for bears except the two crusty old ones

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    kansai92 Says:
    72

    Seeing a lot of condo listings where a unit comes up for sale and doesn’t sell.
    Then another unit with the same floor plan in the same building but higher floor gets listed a few months later and the price is tens of thousands lower.
    Must suck for the first seller!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Short'em High Says:
    73

    @Anonymous: Crash Origination

    Watch Canadian holiday retail numbers closely folks…

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/12/06/bc-point-roberts-parcels.html

    2008 consumer discretionary stocks crashed before lenders.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anyone remember “pls.ca”? This was the exclusive listing service from Cam Good – was to be marketed in China etc. . . .

    Anyhow – – go look at it now – – look at the picture on the front and read the “credits” at the bottom of the photo.

    “Actual pls listing with information provided by seller”.

    Any idea who the house in the photo belongs to??? !!!!

    What a con-man – – this guy deserves whatever he gets.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Short’em High:

    I’m in Zurich right now and have 12 shipments going to this location – – trust me on this one it was a nightmare – – thought it would be big enough to make the news!!! I learned a lot about online retailers / shipping companies and who the best are!!

    I will say that Fedex was great – – – totally held package and redirected it for what appeared to be no fee. UPS – no chance to do anything – only return to sender . .

    Amazon ? OMG – amazing – -they completely agreed to take original item back , reship for no charge. Basically completely at their cost I suppose. Anyhow – off topic but this was 2 days of massive phone calls – –

    TSB Shipping saved the day . .

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Jerry Boyle Says:
    76

    Some interesting numbers hiding in a lame Globe article on RRSPs:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/retirement-rrsps/most-canadians-leave-money-on-the-table-with-rrsps/article6016965/

    “Indeed, a recent Bank of Nova Scotia poll found that taking money out of retirement savings plans is on the rise.

    About one-third of respondents said they dipped into their RRSPs this year with the average withdrawal ringing in at $24,531. That’s up from 23 per cent in 2005, when an average amount taken out was $10,716.

    In some cases the money was used for daily expenses or to pay for vacations, but the top reason cited was to buy a first home, according to Scotiabank, which polled 2,013 people through a computer-assisted telephone survey last June.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Short'em High Says:
    77

    @yvr2zrh: Shipping vs Shopping Locally

    My point was that the unprecedented burden for receiving firms in Washington State may be indicative of shifting consumer expenditures. Local retailers employ Canadians who pay mortgages and rents. If there is less demand for Canadian retail, it will show up in both lower sales numbers and higher unemployment claims. A decline in sales for consumer retail firms will be reflected in share price very quickly. Short them first. Later the higher loan deliquency rates originating from retail downturn unemployment will hit mortgage lender share prices just like 2008. Short them later.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Guy Smiley Guy Smiley Says:
    78

    @yvr2zrh:

    Who does this house belong to? I recognize it as a property from near Victoria. I recall there was a story that went with it – a retired couple from AB (nice people from the way i heard it) moved out to the island and built their dream house and shortly thereafter she fell ill. They put it up for sale but i remember it languishing on the market for a long time. That was 2 or 3 years ago now.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    79

    @Guy Smiley:
    This property has been discussed on HHV for some time now. It finally sold for around $5 mil, original asking around $20 mil I think.

    Scam is just using it as a stock photo.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

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