Happy New Year / Site!

Well, that was 2012.  The real estate market peaked in Vancouver at about the half way point and started heading down.

As we head into 2013 we’ll be watching the market with interest – some of the stats right now are looking as bad as the crash of 2008.

Unlike 2008 we’re now looking at a tighter credit environment and rock bottom interest rates.  It will be interesting to see if there are any more rabbits in that hat.

Thanks to everyone who has taken part in the VCI community this year and your patience with our recent down-time.  We’ve made a number of changes around here to hopefully avoid a similar occurrence in the future.

We’ve also split off VancouverPeak.com from this site and that forum is now running proper forum software which should work much better than the half-way solution we had running before.  Blogs are great, but there is some information which is better served in the discussion forum format.

Things like tracking stats or user generated conversations that can carry on beyond a daily thread are where forums shine, so we invite you to check out the new site at http://vancouverpeak.com

Unlike the previous incarnation registration is open to everyone, but we’ve instituted some automatic user pruning policies that you should know about.  Newly registered accounts have 24 hours to activate their membership via the automated email you will receive after registering.  Please leave at least one human comment within 2 days of registering or your account will be automatically deleted.

We had some good threads on the old site, and we’re manually going through the database and trying to restore the good ones, but it’s a slow process.  If there’s anything specific you would like us to focus on you can leave  a request in the comments.

Thats about it for now, hope you had a good 2012 and here’s to a Happy New Year!

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Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago
I am going to add my rental anecdote to this thread and hopefully others can confirm or reject its conclusion based on their own experiences. Until November this year I rented a one bedroom apartment in Vancouver West for $1290. 3 months ago I received a rent increased that sent the rent to $1340 (maximum allowable by law). As I didn’t really like the apartment to begin with I decided that instead of haggling with the landlord for a lower rent I am just going to move out and rent in a different complex. The apartment I was moving out… Read more »
oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2
3 years 5 months ago
Here’s my rental anecdote: My spouse and I are renting the main floor (the landlord–single–lives downstairs) and finished attic of what is meant to be a SFH in East Vancouver a few blocks south of the PNE. According to my measurements, we have just under 1000 sq. ft. on the main floor and about 400 sq. ft. in a finished attic, which we use mainly for storage and as an extra bedroom/play area for visiting friends and family. We pay $1400/month for a rent of $1/month/sq. ft. plus heating (natural gas) and electricity, which in total runs to aout $75/month… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

More trouble brewing at the Olympic Village. Condo owners are opposed to the proposed opening of a new pub. These people sound extremely NIMBY. Another article talks about concerns the pub will bring down property values. If owners at the Olympic Village are concerned about property values, I think they have much bigger problems than a local pub. Property values are falling because the bubble is deflating, not because a pub wants to open up.

http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/Battle+brewing+over+Craft+Beer+restaurant+planned+heritage/7758404/story.html

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High
3 years 5 months ago
Monkeys in a controlled experiment exhibit immunity to evidence by repeating the financial mistake of trading away a loss(rent) in preference for the choice with lower mathematical(expected) return. The highly repeatable experiment shows that a small and unlikely chance of getting ahead of their peers overwhelms any caution or benefit calculation in the decision. The experimenter also reported that the same community of economically trained monkeys was rife with theft and bereft of savings. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUd8XA-5HEk The working hypothesis is that humans involved with buying and holding overpriced RE have the same cognitive deficit as lower primates. In other words, they… Read more »
g
Guest
g
3 years 5 months ago
What a joke this city is! Vancouver can’t even stay up late enough to ring in the new year! Public New Years Eve gathering at Robson Square ends at 9pm. Vancouver is counting down the New Year at 9pm so that we are in sync with Toronto and New York! I guess people are too tired from working so hard to pay those massive mortgages to stay awake til midnight to ring in the new year. Then again, most of the transit system here shuts down by 1am so it’s probably not a good idea to have a big gathering… Read more »
real_professional
Member
3 years 4 months ago

@ G I feel your anger! Best thing to do in Vancouver is stay at home, I learned that by the late 90. Weather here sucks for New Year and the events are lame.

@short em high…. great post thanks for sharing

PCinWA
Member
PCinWA
3 years 4 months ago

Inventory – December 31, 2009: 9,880
Inventory – December 31, 2010: 10,739 (+8.7%)
Inventory – December 31, 2011: 12,069 (+12.4%)
Inventory – December 28, 2012: 14,226 (+17.9%)

Based on this, I think it’s fair to conclude that 2013 is going to a horrible year for Vancouver home prices.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 4 months ago
“Finally the new tenant that accepted the offer also got 3 months free parking ($150) and a free locker ($10/month). Which in my mind is equivalent to a $1270/month deal… but allows the landlord to claim the apartment is rented for $1290.” Claim to who? All that matters is they just lost money and caused a bunch of extra work for themselves. There is also potential new problems with noise or late rent with an unknown tenant. Landlords often gamble that a tenant will accept a rent increase to avoid the hassle of moving. Good on you for not accepting… Read more »
No Noise
Guest
No Noise
3 years 4 months ago
So tired of the bull posters who can’t put together decent thoughts, or even sentences, but endlessly say that VCI contributors are “sad” or “miserable” for having been wrong for as long as the blog has been going. Yes this is a bear blog, but how the hell do they know what bear posters have been doing in RE all these years? Many posters here have owned, or maybe even still own (probably strictly owner occupiers). Just sayin, some bubble believers have done very very well in RE with thanks to the ongoing discussion and data provided by this excellent… Read more »
No Noise
Guest
No Noise
3 years 4 months ago

Does anyone know a good data source for what rental costs in the various areas of Vancouver are or should be based on property type? What’s listed on Craigslist is one way of course but from what I’m hearing on here is that a lot of CL listings are out of whack and with falling home prices I would think rental prices should be falling – would be great to have some data/graphs to monitor the rental situation in Van.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
3 years 4 months ago

@No Noise

“So tired of the bull posters who can’t put together decent thoughts, or even sentences, but endlessly say that VCI contributors are “sad” or “miserable” for having been wrong for as long as the blog has been going.”

LOL! When U R right U d0n’t need th0ghts and s3ntanc3s, ROFL! Despite the bull’s awesome stats, pretty graphs, and top notch analysis they’ve been wrong for almost a decade 🙂

That should lead a thinking person to question the quality of the bulls analysis. An unthinking person, on the other hand, would just hit the thumbs down button. 😛

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks
3 years 4 months ago

@No Noise: It’s not perfect, but padmapper.com has some of the features you’re looking for.

Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...
3 years 4 months ago

@ BBB…

That should lead a thinking person to question the quality of the bulls analysis

Oops…that was a slip.

No Noise
Guest
No Noise
3 years 4 months ago

Thanks Many Franks!

and

@ BullBullBull

Thanks too for a perfect example of nonsensical writing!
Not worth bothering to try to understand what you are saying or responding. All that needs to be said is that the bubble is bursting and you know it..

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
3 years 4 months ago

@No Noise

“Not worth bothering to try to understand what you are saying”

An excellent example of bear logic.

*puts fingers in ears*

“la-la-la-la-la!”

No Noise
Guest
No Noise
3 years 4 months ago

@Many Franks

Padmapper.com is awesome – love how they give %above/below median rents for the neighborhood. Could use more listings, hopefully it really catches on or teams up w CL. Not sure exactly how it works yet..

An Observer
Guest
3 years 4 months ago
Here are a few stats to enjoy 1) 10% of properties listed for sale right now in Vancouver West (and Vancouver East) were purchased in 2011 2) 28% of those in Vancouver West would currently sell at a loss if they received asking price 3) 18% of properties in Vancouver West and 14% in Vancouver East are now listed below assessment Shaughnessy and Arbutus both have 29% of current listings having been purchased in 2011 and combined 30% of listings are below assessment. That first number is pretty mind boggling… 77% of the downtown listings that were purchased in 2011… Read more »
@An Observer
Guest
@An Observer
3 years 4 months ago

Here’s another cool stat. 100% of the HAM degenerate gamblers are going to disappear once the banks start asking for that negative equity to be paid off.

And yes, some pay cash, but if you were a HAM degenerate gambler and stupid white folks are climbing over each other throwing credit at you, are you telling me you wouldn’t take it?

Troll
Guest
Troll
3 years 4 months ago

Slow day at the board so far. No sales recorded yet, a dozen changes and a couple dozen new listings.

Barring a busy afternoon, we are looking at sub 1150 sales for December. ~25% below last year and ~40% below 10 year median. New listings will finish around 1350. ~15% below 2011 and 20% below 10 year median. Sell to list of 87%.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks
3 years 4 months ago

@No Noise: Padmapper aggregates listings from many sources, including Craigslist. If something is on CL but not Padmapper it’s probably because it couldn’t be mapped based on what was provided in the ad.

Girlbear
Guest
Girlbear
3 years 4 months ago

Troll

A couple of dozen new listings on NYE?? That surprises me. Interesting.

Van Coffee
Guest
Van Coffee
3 years 4 months ago

While we are posting rental anecdotes, I just renewed my lease for another year.

< 10 year old house in Marpole ~ 3,800 SF / three stories. Very nice house, 3 car garage. Separate nanny quarters. Too much space for us.

Owner and his agent were happy to rent to us for another year with no increase. "Owner has no intention of selling……."

Happy new year everyone and look forward to more of the same in 2013.

VC

Crikey
Guest
Crikey
3 years 4 months ago
real professional said: “Weather here sucks for New Year and the events are lame.” B..b..but you can go the beach and skiing on the same day! Lol, I can’t believe people are still pitching that garbage. The only time of year that you can do anything that resembles skiing near Vancouver, its beaches are cold, dreary, wet, and totally uninviting. And vice-versa, for the few weeks that the beaches are half-decent, nearby ski hills are guaranteed to be barren. So why do the RE pumper idiots insist on trumpeting that nonsense? I don’t know if it speaks less of the… Read more »
vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 4 months ago
so i was out on 4th with my friend today, and my friend ran into one of her friend’s mom. Their conversation quickly turned to the mom saying how she tried for a long time to sell her house last year with no luck, that she only received one ridiculous offer, and that she was willing to go down to assessed value, but NO WAY IN HELL was she going to accept an offer below assessment, so she pulled the listings. Her place is in the Dunbar/UBC area. This is a family that has owned their house for at least… Read more »
Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 4 months ago

“you can go the beach and skiing on the same day”

Never heard that one before. It’s usually “ski, golf, and sail” – which is true.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 4 months ago
“Public New Years Eve gathering at Robson Square ends at 9pm. Vancouver is counting down the New Year at 9pm so that we are in sync with Toronto and New York! I guess people are too tired from working so hard to pay those massive mortgages to stay awake til midnight to ring in the new year.” There’s no real estate angle here. It’s a kids event, hence the early countdown – there will be one at 7pm, too! “The New Year’s celebration gets underway at Robson Square. Free live stage celebrations from 4pm – 10:30pm, 2 early countdowns at… Read more »
patriotz
Member
3 years 4 months ago

“Their conversation quickly turned to the mom saying how she tried for a long time to sell her house last year with no luck”

What were they going to do if they had sold the property?

paulb
Member
3 years 4 months ago

Happy New Year!!!

New Listings 16
Price Changes 27
Sold Listings 0

TI:13892

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 4 months ago

@Vote Down The Facts
“you can go the beach and skiing on the same day”

“Never heard that one before.”

You have got to be kidding!

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 4 months ago

“You have got to be kidding!”

Nope, not kidding – seriously never heard it. Like I said, the only ones I’ve heard involve skiing, sailing, and golfing and various permutations thereof- never sunbathing on the beach!

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2
3 years 4 months ago

@29 Groundhog:

@Vote Down The Facts
“you can go the beach and skiing on the same day”

“Never heard that one before.”

You have got to be kidding!

I agree with VDTF on this one. The standard pitch, which is true on more than a handful of occasions at various times throughout the year, is that one can ski and play golf (or go sailing, which is a bit of a stretch) on the same day.

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2
3 years 4 months ago

@24 Vangirl:

This is a family that has owned their house for at least 15 years and made a substantial profit….talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth (whatever that means)

Since they haven’t yet sold, they have made exactly zero profit. They are currently sitting on unrealized capital gains, but they will be one of many families over the next few years who will come to personally understand the difference between the two.

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 4 months ago

Hmmmm…. I’ve heard ski/beach before s.. And it would be possible if the local mountains have a large snowbase going into spring and we have an early hot spell. Uncommon though.

patriotz
Member
3 years 4 months ago

“Since they haven’t yet sold, they have made exactly zero profit. ”

They have almost certainly made a profit, namely paying less per month in aggregate than if they had rented a comparable property.

Maybe not if they had bought around the top in 1994, but for sure otherwise.

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2
3 years 4 months ago

@Patriotz

Help me out here, but aren’t you conflating consumption and investment? How does one make a “profit” on a consumable (the cost of shelter, in this case) good?

Jacob
Guest
Jacob
3 years 4 months ago
Christmas gathering with in laws and their families. So discussion around the table starts about upcoming ski trip. My family politely turned down the invitation few months ago but we did not specify the reasons at the time. So anyway now the question from the family was why we don’t come. They put us on the spot because my kids were present at the table. And my kids love snow activities like any other kids. So my wife mumbles something and I see that they insisting on us coming. I was so pissed of so I reply that the ski… Read more »
Yalie
Guest
Yalie
3 years 4 months ago

Speaking of skiing / sailing etc, southern California has several ski hills between Los Angeles and Palm Springs. So you could theoretically golf, ski, scuba dive, surf, sail, suntan, AND watch a Stanley Cup-winning NHL team all in the same day, if you really wanted. Probably explains why their real estate never crashed.

Piklishi
Guest
Piklishi
3 years 4 months ago

@36 I had a similar conversation with a friend of mine about the budgeting and his answer was: and what if you save, when you die you want take the wealth with you. He d rather borrow as much as he can and enjoy it because thd credit is cheap. Why not right…with this mentality I don’t know how far the economy is going. It will be too late when people will realize that they can’t live in debt anymore and that time has come.
Happy New Year to all of you!

Aleksey
Guest
Aleksey
3 years 4 months ago

#25 Vote Down The Facts

“Ski, Golf, Sail at the same day” is true and exactly why I came here.

Being from inland found out that snow is pretty wet here and skiing/snowboarding at local mountains less fun that at Big White for instance. Can’t say much about golfing, but windsurfing/sailing is not what I expected too. I find winds around Vancouver not strong enough and not consistent at all which is crucial for these activities.

Don’t get me wrong, I love it here, but Vancouver is very overrated.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 4 months ago

How about that? A shut-out to end the year.

Yalie
Guest
Yalie
3 years 4 months ago

Here’s a post from Paul B exactly one year ago tonight…

NYE 2011 Total Inventory: 12069

DEC 31st…

2010: 10739

2009: 9880

2008: 16188

2007: 9034

I hope everyone here has a killer NYE!!

For me personally this spring will determine whether or not I buy a house. If things crack up, I will sit tight, if nothing happens and the global economy improves I might buy. I am sick to death of renting a crap house for 3k per month!!! Lol

So Paul I have to ask – did you end up buying or not?

Crikey
Guest
Crikey
3 years 4 months ago
Vote Down the Facts (#31) said: “Nope, not kidding – seriously never heard it.” Lesse, where do I start with this one? As recent as the thread just previous to this one (message #140), a poster named “Vincent C.” wrote, “I was googling Vancouver condos and came across this site. What a loud of bs all of u are. Maybe you haven’t noticed but we live in the best city in the world. You can ski and go to the beach on the same day and everyone wants to live here. ” Mind you, he sounded a bit like a… Read more »
Jacob
Guest
Jacob
3 years 4 months ago
@Piklishi “I had a similar conversation with a friend of mine about the budgeting and his answer was: and what if you save, when you die you want take the wealth with you” these kind of people a lost cause. Let me tell you this story. Of my wife sibling was NHL-er for brief time. Enough to get signing bonus, around 1 mil..plus he was paid for about a year two way contract so lets say he made another 600-700k. Do you know how much he saved from that period? ZERO. He only has house paid ..worth it maybe 400k… Read more »
Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 4 months ago

Thanks Crikey,

I could have sworn I heard this saying repeated throughout most of my life. But then Vote Down The Facts said its not in fact what the saying is. As he only sticks to strictly facts, I assumed it was case closed when VDTF stated it.

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 4 months ago
Dec-2012 Total days 19 Days elapsed so far 19 Weekends / holidays 12 Days missing 0 Days remaining 0 7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales 59 7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings 33 SALES Sales so far 1130 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 0 Projected month end total 1130 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 1324 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 0 Projected month end total 1324 Sell-list so far 85.3% Projected month-end sell-list 85.3% MONTHS OF INVENTORY Inventory as of December 31, 2012 13892 Current MoI at this sales pace 12.29 year sell list… Read more »
Crikey
Guest
Crikey
3 years 4 months ago

Among other sites, here is an immigration services company ‘trolling’ their potential clients about Vancouver:
“Within a few minutes from the downtown core, you can enjoy activities such as a walk amongst the Cedar trees in Stanley Park, skiing on the North Shore, or a stroll along the beach. You can ski, swim, and play golf in the same day.”

Yes, people will be ‘swimming’ on Vancouver beaches tomorrow, for about 5 to 10 seconds on average. It is called the Polar Bear swim. Guess they forgot to mention that part?

http://www.globalnetworkassociates.com/indexv20.html

Crikey
Guest
Crikey
3 years 4 months ago

Thanks Groundhog,

I assumed everybody else had heard that one for years as well, like I have.

I should have included examples to begin with – I blame my lapse on the sunstroke I have from too much exposure to the Vancouver sun recently. 😉

squeako
Guest
squeako
3 years 4 months ago
“a friend of mine about the budgeting and his answer was: and what if you save, when you die you want take the wealth with you. He d rather borrow as much as he can and enjoy it because thd credit is cheap.” 1/ when getting older this guy is going to find it gets harder to work, maybe also harder to find a well paid job. 2/ One gets used to spending, and will have a hard time becoming frugal or wise b/c of ingrained habits/lifestyle and aquired pride. 3/ He is selling off his possibility to retire earlier.… Read more »
vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 4 months ago

craigslist is bombarded with stupidly expensive “rent it furnished” postings.

I honestly think that amateur landlords see these adds and some set their rental prices based on these. Some of these rentals are ridiculous, I mean who rents a one bedroom alley house for $2800??

Zerodown
Guest
Zerodown
3 years 4 months ago

Supposedly you can tell the health of a horse by looking at its teeth, so a horse buyer would look a horse in the mouth to check it out. Happy new year folks.

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