Happy New Year / Site!

Well, that was 2012.  The real estate market peaked in Vancouver at about the half way point and started heading down.

As we head into 2013 we’ll be watching the market with interest – some of the stats right now are looking as bad as the crash of 2008.

Unlike 2008 we’re now looking at a tighter credit environment and rock bottom interest rates.  It will be interesting to see if there are any more rabbits in that hat.

Thanks to everyone who has taken part in the VCI community this year and your patience with our recent down-time.  We’ve made a number of changes around here to hopefully avoid a similar occurrence in the future.

We’ve also split off VancouverPeak.com from this site and that forum is now running proper forum software which should work much better than the half-way solution we had running before.  Blogs are great, but there is some information which is better served in the discussion forum format.

Things like tracking stats or user generated conversations that can carry on beyond a daily thread are where forums shine, so we invite you to check out the new site at http://vancouverpeak.com

Unlike the previous incarnation registration is open to everyone, but we’ve instituted some automatic user pruning policies that you should know about.  Newly registered accounts have 24 hours to activate their membership via the automated email you will receive after registering.  Please leave at least one human comment within 2 days of registering or your account will be automatically deleted.

We had some good threads on the old site, and we’re manually going through the database and trying to restore the good ones, but it’s a slow process.  If there’s anything specific you would like us to focus on you can leave  a request in the comments.

Thats about it for now, hope you had a good 2012 and here’s to a Happy New Year!

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Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
I am going to add my rental anecdote to this thread and hopefully others can confirm or reject its conclusion based on their own experiences. Until November this year I rented a one bedroom apartment in Vancouver West for $1290. 3 months ago I received a rent increased that sent the rent to $1340 (maximum allowable by law). As I didn’t really like the apartment to begin with I decided that instead of haggling with the landlord for a lower rent I am just going to move out and rent in a different complex. The apartment I was moving out of was initially listed for rent for $1400. No takers. A month before I was to move out it was dropped to $1350 and within a couple of weeks it was dropped back to my initial $1290. Finally the new… Read more »
oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2
Here’s my rental anecdote: My spouse and I are renting the main floor (the landlord–single–lives downstairs) and finished attic of what is meant to be a SFH in East Vancouver a few blocks south of the PNE. According to my measurements, we have just under 1000 sq. ft. on the main floor and about 400 sq. ft. in a finished attic, which we use mainly for storage and as an extra bedroom/play area for visiting friends and family. We pay $1400/month for a rent of $1/month/sq. ft. plus heating (natural gas) and electricity, which in total runs to aout $75/month on average for the year. In addition, we’ve got a fantastic 500 sq. ft. back deck, which is wonderful during the summer. Our one-year move-in anniversary is coming up next month and I suspect the landlord won’t even consider raising… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

More trouble brewing at the Olympic Village. Condo owners are opposed to the proposed opening of a new pub. These people sound extremely NIMBY. Another article talks about concerns the pub will bring down property values. If owners at the Olympic Village are concerned about property values, I think they have much bigger problems than a local pub. Property values are falling because the bubble is deflating, not because a pub wants to open up.

http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/Battle+brewing+over+Craft+Beer+restaurant+planned+heritage/7758404/story.html

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

Monkeys in a controlled experiment exhibit immunity to evidence by repeating the financial mistake of trading away a loss(rent) in preference for the choice with lower mathematical(expected) return.

The highly repeatable experiment shows that a small and unlikely chance of getting ahead of their peers overwhelms any caution or benefit calculation in the decision.

The experimenter also reported that the same community of economically trained monkeys was rife with theft and bereft of savings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUd8XA-5HEk

The working hypothesis is that humans involved with buying and holding overpriced RE have the same cognitive deficit as lower primates. In other words, they are exhibiting monkey behavior.

g
Guest
g
What a joke this city is! Vancouver can’t even stay up late enough to ring in the new year! Public New Years Eve gathering at Robson Square ends at 9pm. Vancouver is counting down the New Year at 9pm so that we are in sync with Toronto and New York! I guess people are too tired from working so hard to pay those massive mortgages to stay awake til midnight to ring in the new year. Then again, most of the transit system here shuts down by 1am so it’s probably not a good idea to have a big gathering of people downtown that ends after midnight. Just goes to show what a pathetic city this is. There is absolutely no comparison between New York and Vancouver other than the fact that Vancouver rings in the new year at the… Read more »
real_professional
Member

@ G I feel your anger! Best thing to do in Vancouver is stay at home, I learned that by the late 90. Weather here sucks for New Year and the events are lame.

@short em high…. great post thanks for sharing

PCinWA
Member
PCinWA

Inventory – December 31, 2009: 9,880
Inventory – December 31, 2010: 10,739 (+8.7%)
Inventory – December 31, 2011: 12,069 (+12.4%)
Inventory – December 28, 2012: 14,226 (+17.9%)

Based on this, I think it’s fair to conclude that 2013 is going to a horrible year for Vancouver home prices.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
“Finally the new tenant that accepted the offer also got 3 months free parking ($150) and a free locker ($10/month). Which in my mind is equivalent to a $1270/month deal… but allows the landlord to claim the apartment is rented for $1290.” Claim to who? All that matters is they just lost money and caused a bunch of extra work for themselves. There is also potential new problems with noise or late rent with an unknown tenant. Landlords often gamble that a tenant will accept a rent increase to avoid the hassle of moving. Good on you for not accepting it. Personally I live in a newer condo in downtown owned by a amature landlord based in the US. Going on 4 years now he has not ever increased my rent. I send him 12 new cheques once per year… Read more »
No Noise
Guest
No Noise

So tired of the bull posters who can’t put together decent thoughts, or even sentences, but endlessly say that VCI contributors are “sad” or “miserable” for having been wrong for as long as the blog has been going. Yes this is a bear blog, but how the hell do they know what bear posters have been doing in RE all these years? Many posters here have owned, or maybe even still own (probably strictly owner occupiers). Just sayin, some bubble believers have done very very well in RE with thanks to the ongoing discussion and data provided by this excellent blog and others. If you are in the RE market and haven’t been paying attention to these blogs, quite likely you are getting badly burned in the RE market right now..

No Noise
Guest
No Noise

Does anyone know a good data source for what rental costs in the various areas of Vancouver are or should be based on property type? What’s listed on Craigslist is one way of course but from what I’m hearing on here is that a lot of CL listings are out of whack and with falling home prices I would think rental prices should be falling – would be great to have some data/graphs to monitor the rental situation in Van.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@No Noise

“So tired of the bull posters who can’t put together decent thoughts, or even sentences, but endlessly say that VCI contributors are “sad” or “miserable” for having been wrong for as long as the blog has been going.”

LOL! When U R right U d0n’t need th0ghts and s3ntanc3s, ROFL! Despite the bull’s awesome stats, pretty graphs, and top notch analysis they’ve been wrong for almost a decade 🙂

That should lead a thinking person to question the quality of the bulls analysis. An unthinking person, on the other hand, would just hit the thumbs down button. 😛

Many Franks
Guest
Active Member
Many Franks

@No Noise: It’s not perfect, but padmapper.com has some of the features you’re looking for.

Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...

@ BBB…

That should lead a thinking person to question the quality of the bulls analysis

Oops…that was a slip.

No Noise
Guest
No Noise

Thanks Many Franks!

and

@ BullBullBull

Thanks too for a perfect example of nonsensical writing!
Not worth bothering to try to understand what you are saying or responding. All that needs to be said is that the bubble is bursting and you know it..

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@No Noise

“Not worth bothering to try to understand what you are saying”

An excellent example of bear logic.

*puts fingers in ears*

“la-la-la-la-la!”

No Noise
Guest
No Noise

@Many Franks

Padmapper.com is awesome – love how they give %above/below median rents for the neighborhood. Could use more listings, hopefully it really catches on or teams up w CL. Not sure exactly how it works yet..

An Observer
Guest

Here are a few stats to enjoy

1) 10% of properties listed for sale right now in Vancouver West (and Vancouver East) were purchased in 2011

2) 28% of those in Vancouver West would currently sell at a loss if they received asking price

3) 18% of properties in Vancouver West and 14% in Vancouver East are now listed below assessment

Shaughnessy and Arbutus both have 29% of current listings having been purchased in 2011 and combined 30% of listings are below assessment. That first number is pretty mind boggling…

77% of the downtown listings that were purchased in 2011 and relisted currently will sell for a loss if the seller gets asking price. Kitsilano is 63% and Yaletown is 50%.

2013 should be interesting, have a happy new year!

@An Observer
Guest
@An Observer

Here’s another cool stat. 100% of the HAM degenerate gamblers are going to disappear once the banks start asking for that negative equity to be paid off.

And yes, some pay cash, but if you were a HAM degenerate gambler and stupid white folks are climbing over each other throwing credit at you, are you telling me you wouldn’t take it?

Troll
Guest
Troll

Slow day at the board so far. No sales recorded yet, a dozen changes and a couple dozen new listings.

Barring a busy afternoon, we are looking at sub 1150 sales for December. ~25% below last year and ~40% below 10 year median. New listings will finish around 1350. ~15% below 2011 and 20% below 10 year median. Sell to list of 87%.

Many Franks
Guest
Active Member
Many Franks

@No Noise: Padmapper aggregates listings from many sources, including Craigslist. If something is on CL but not Padmapper it’s probably because it couldn’t be mapped based on what was provided in the ad.

Girlbear
Guest
Girlbear

Troll

A couple of dozen new listings on NYE?? That surprises me. Interesting.

Van Coffee
Guest
Van Coffee

While we are posting rental anecdotes, I just renewed my lease for another year.

< 10 year old house in Marpole ~ 3,800 SF / three stories. Very nice house, 3 car garage. Separate nanny quarters. Too much space for us.

Owner and his agent were happy to rent to us for another year with no increase. "Owner has no intention of selling……."

Happy new year everyone and look forward to more of the same in 2013.

VC

Crikey
Guest
Crikey

real professional said:
“Weather here sucks for New Year and the events are lame.”

B..b..but you can go the beach and skiing on the same day!

Lol, I can’t believe people are still pitching that garbage. The only time of year that you can do anything that resembles skiing near Vancouver, its beaches are cold, dreary, wet, and totally uninviting. And vice-versa, for the few weeks that the beaches are half-decent, nearby ski hills are guaranteed to be barren.

So why do the RE pumper idiots insist on trumpeting that nonsense? I don’t know if it speaks less of the lying pumpers, or any overly trusting buyers who believe verbatim what a salesman is saying.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

so i was out on 4th with my friend today, and my friend ran into one of her friend’s mom. Their conversation quickly turned to the mom saying how she tried for a long time to sell her house last year with no luck, that she only received one ridiculous offer, and that she was willing to go down to assessed value, but NO WAY IN HELL was she going to accept an offer below assessment, so she pulled the listings.

Her place is in the Dunbar/UBC area. This is a family that has owned their house for at least 15 years and made a substantial profit….talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth (whatever that means)

Happy New Years!

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

“you can go the beach and skiing on the same day”

Never heard that one before. It’s usually “ski, golf, and sail” – which is true.

wpDiscuz