November 2012 stats – prices keep sliding

The following is a release from the GVREB which should not be confused with the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV). This is what the GVREB says about itself:

“GVREB is a not for profit real estate bulletin prepared by industry analysts and market participants. Comments, information and questions can be sent to the general e-mail box at gvreb1@gmail.com”

Here’s their report on the market at the end of November 2012:

Firm trend of lower prices in Greater Vancouver as demographic changes bring motivated sellers to market
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ON VCI

VANCOUVER, B.C. –December 3, 2012 – The pace of property sales slowed in November 2012 from October 2012 to be the second slowest month of November in the past 12 years. The slower selling pace combined with higher inventory levels continues to put downward pressures on home prices. In addition, the leading edge of a demographic change is appearing where aging home owners are selling their long-held principal residences in order to downsize in their retirement years. In certain higher priced markets, we are seeing older-aged sellers accept significant discounts on their asking price to complete their sale transactions. This is putting additional downward pressure on prices and setting the clearing price of the market lower. We foresee continued market weakness with no positive changes in macroeconomic factors expected in the next 18 months.

GVREB reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties fell to 1,698 in November 2012, the second lowest total for the month of November in the past 12 years. This total represents a 28 per cent decrease compared to the 2,360 sales in November 2011. Contrary to mid-year predictions from local real estate market associations, the second half of 2012 has not resulted in an increase in sales from the first half but instead has continued to deteriorate.

November 2012 had a modest deterioration in sales pace which resulted in a seasonally unusual increase in the number of months of inventory. Prices also continued their downward trend with market-wide benchmark prices now down approximately 5% from their peaks in May 2012. With slow sales and high inventory, lower prices are now being set by the motivated and aging owners who desire or require their property to sell. These unlevered sellers are willing to accept very large discounts below their asking price in order to realize the large gains they have realized over their original purchase price. We believe this the front edge of a demographic trend that economists have predicted would occur.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,750 in November 2012. This was more than 10 per cent below the seasonal average and 15 per cent below the 3,222 listings in November 2011. However, as sales have slowed more than listings, the sales to new listing ratio of 62.0% was the second lowest for the month of November in the past 12 years. The number of active listings at the end of November 2012 was 15,680. Inventory decreased approximately 10 per cent compared to the end of October 2012 while MOI increased to 9.2.

The Residential Reference Price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months decreased by 1.2 per cent to $600,200 in November 2012 from $607,200 in October 2011. From the peak price level in May 2012, prices have now decreased approximately 5 per cent in those 6 months.

Sales of detached properties in November slowed to 637 units, a decrease of 30 per cent from the 916 detached sales recorded in November 2011, and a 39 per cent decrease from the 1,050 units sold in November 2010. On a monthly basis, the number of sales November 2012 was down almost 20 per cent from October 2012 and fell at a rate much higher than that of the attached and apartment segments. The reference price for detached properties fell to $916,000 compared to $936,200 in November 2011.

Sales of apartment properties fell to 752 units in November 2012, a 25 per cent decrease compared to the 1,000 sales in November 2011, and a decrease of 28 per cent compared to the 1,052 sales in November 2010. In the past 12 months, the reference price of an apartment property decreased by 2.2 per cent to $362,500 from $368,600.

Attached property sales in November 2012 totalled 309, a 30 per cent decrease compared to the 444 sales in November 2011, and a 24 per cent decrease from the 407 attached properties sold in November 2010. The reference price of an attached unit decreased 3.1 per cent from October 2011 to $459,000.

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JR
JR
7 years ago

@oneangryslav2: First, you are taking my comment too literal. Of course a property would sell for $10, get real. Second, what you are saying was not far off for some markets. 1/5th is 80%. Some markets corrected 70% like Las Vegas. Many markets corrected 50%, and yet, there is still tons of inventory sitting in the shadows held by the banks, even now. Your necessity to point out the “errors” in my comments have prevented you from seeing the point. There was too much inventory. The shock that everyone likes to talk about was that there was a sudden burst of inventory in 2005/06. The only way that inventory was going to move down was with a large correction, there was just too much of it. The the credit tightening started in some counties (blacklisting) and eventually it spread throughout… Read more »

N
N
7 years ago

@painted turtle:

Wow! I have never seen comments like that in a mainstream publication. Jibe ho!

painted turtle
painted turtle
7 years ago

Actually, it seems many people agree with my colleagues:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/vancouver-home-sales-slide-prices-dip/article5959910/comments/

I have never seen a comment section that bearish…

painted turtle
painted turtle
7 years ago

Went with colleagues for a drink. RE came in the conversation, of course 😉
So now the rumour is that local people are definitely priced out forever because of all the money laundering from China. No one had any intention of buying (too expensive). They just felt bitter about HAM. So the chat moved quickly onto renting, how to get a good deal, etc… Very different from just a year ago when everyone was bragging about their investment plans or congratulating one another about a new purchase, or telling stories about relatives who made a killing.

I did not say anything because I knew there was a 19 yr old owning a condo, and I did not want to spoil his evening.

crashcow
7 years ago

@RaggedyRenter: Interesting. Physcology can shift on a dime in stock markets, but in RE its usually a gradual melt.

Con-Rad
Con-Rad
7 years ago

99 sales for the rest of the month bears. Looks like higher prices.

Wait 2012 total sales are as bad as 2008? Oh dear

This is not going to look good on the T1.

I hate you guys.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

why the heck was my post about that Maple Ridge listing foreclosed on???

$469,000 is about the same price as a 1 bedroom condo on the westside, seemed like a reasonable post

VHB
VHB
7 years ago
Dec-2012	
Total days	19
Days elapsed so far	2
Weekends / holidays	2
Days missing	0
Days remaining	17
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	70
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	106
SALES	
Sales so far	157
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1183
Projected month end total	1340
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	262
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1809
Projected month end total	2071
Sell-list so far	59.9%
Projected month-end sell-list	64.7%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of December 4, 2012	15899
Current MoI at this sales pace	11.86
Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

@Conrad: how many sales yesterday again?

Conrad
Conrad
7 years ago

We are still around a hundred sales a day in december..nice!

This market is still above water believe me folks

paulb
7 years ago

New Listings 118
Price Changes 70
Sold Listings 99
TI:15899

Full stats release here: http://www.paulboenisch.com

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

although i see now it doesn’t come with a fridge or stove..

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

http://www.mindymcpherson.com/Properties.php/Details/1123/10340-240th-st-maple-ridge-bc#viewdetail

wow $469,000 for a 3000s.f new house? is Maple Ridge a bore? seems reasonably priced

oneangryslav2
oneangryslav2
7 years ago

@mclovin:

Prices went down quickly because there was too much coming online at once then could be consumed for any price point.

This is simply not true. Do you think that those homes would not have found buyers at 1/2, or 1/5, the price? At an appropriate cap rate, REITs would have happily scooped these up. The problem was not the amount of supply, but the price at which this supply was being offered. Period.

Bag it and tag it
Bag it and tag it
7 years ago

CTV had a brief but very bearish report on Vancouver RE. They stated sales dropped 30% and prices down 4.5%, but they didn’t say from peak, so many will assume it fell 4.5% MoM.
It also seems like the board is trying less to sugar coat the stats, pointing out how much the drop has been from the peak as well as YoY….probably trying to set expectations with sellers and perhaps advertising discounts to buyers…

mclovin
mclovin
7 years ago

From Vancouverprice drop: He is referring to Maple Ridge. #19 This is going to be an epicenter of destruction. Practically every large property on this road with a teardown is for sale. Up the street by Kanaka creek a very large piece of land has been prepped for development. Every new development off this road is mostly unsold. The link below is to one of them. There are probably at least 50 homes in this very tight development and I believe only a few are sold, the rest are unfinished. I’m under the impression based on the pace of the work they are in severe severe finance trouble, and are only able to proceed as they sell a unit. This particular one was just listed for $500k a week ago. My guess is this development will be taken over by… Read more »

No Money Down
No Money Down
7 years ago

@VMD:
Whistler apartments down 18.5% below January 2005 Prices. Yikes!

jesse
7 years ago

Based on some quick calculations — using changes from September-November average daily sales to December average daily sales from past years, and then using that to estimate the December sales for this year, I get December daily sales down -26% compared to the Sep-Nov average. That would put December sales at 1159 (average daily 61). If sales are only down 20% from the previous 3 month average that would put them at 1243 (average daily 65). But in summary total sales for the year will be around 25K or so. That’s down 20% from last year. You can figure out what % of Realtor incomes depend upon commisions to figure out how much reported income is going to drop in 2012 compared to 2011. Further you can figure out, if this goes on for some years, what that will do… Read more »

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

@patriotz: “Well guys, I guess the next step is sandwich boards.”

Yes, they dramatically slow your decent to the pavement.

b5baxter
7 years ago

Newest HPI numbers are within the bounds of our model (although perhaps a slightly steeper curve than the model predicts is emerging). The model still estimates a 30-55% decline from peak with the bottom occurring between May 2015 and June 2017.

http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/data-hounds/forum/topic/crash-curve-graphs/?#post-2681

jesse
7 years ago

@VMD: Wonderful, in combination with the overall number from Teranet and those data it’s interesting how consistent the aggregate market has been true to paulb’s numbers, despite wildly-varying regional differences.

painted turtle
painted turtle
7 years ago

@VDM: thanks. Nevertheless, tomorrow on the morning radio they will tell us that prices are up.

kansai92
kansai92
7 years ago

@painted turtle:
Hey a realtor’s job is to sell your house with the least amount of effort required. Clearly this realtor has better things to do than to wait until daylight to take pictures.
Good job on the part of the realtor.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

@Anonymous: “The slow drip pisses the patient bear more than the seller…”

Are you referring to the patient bear who’s potential house purchase was just reduced by 10K and the seller who just lost 10K in market value in a matter of a month? Don’t think so.

VMD
7 years ago

Nov 2012 vs 2011 SFH Stats

Vancouver West:
Sales: -36%
Ratio: 48% vs 74%
HPI YoY: -8.4% (-7.7%,-6.5%,-3.7%,0%) worsened YoY trend in past months

Burnaby:
Sales: -42%
Ratio: 49% vs 82%
HPI YoY: +1.5% (+2.4%,+4.2%,+5.2%)

Richmond:
Sales: -25%
Ratio: 55% vs 65%
HPI YoY: -4.2% (-4.0%,-4.2%,-3.7%)

Coquitlam:
Sales: -33%
Ratio: 64% vs 72%
HPI YoY: +2.6% (+2.8%,+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%)

Vancouver East:
Sales: -19%
Ratio: 82% vs 74%
HPI YoY: +0.5% (+1.9%,+3.2%,+4.8%,+5.5%)
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