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Don Lapre
Member

First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!

condos
Guest

Condos are holding up. Better than detached houses. How does bear logic explain that

Apocarypse Mao
Guest

@ Condos

Condos are going down (3% HPI since peak) , not as fast as detached houses (5% HPI since peak). There have been larger drops on high end detached homes.

Logic? There is no logic to speculative bubbles. They are not driven by the rationale hand of the market, they are psychologically and emotionally driven. No logic on way up; no logic on way down. Just sit back and watch it all unfold in it’s own unique and erratic way.

an observer
Guest

The HPI is sketchy… Take a random sampling of 20 condo’s around Vancouver and the suberbs and for each of these go to the assessment site and find sales in the same building. Next take the average price vs assessment % of last years sales then compare that to the current listing price vs assessment. You’ll see right away that prices are down for many of them by 20%+ and almost all by 10%+ and that’s based on them selling for asking which they are not.

condo watcher
Guest

condos Says:
December 9th, 2012 at 1:00 pm

Condos are holding up. Better than detached houses. How does bear logic explain that

you better have a look at the tri cities and beyond –the condo markets in many places are a disaster–resales have been dropping for over 2&1/2 years in many areas–it’s nothing to do with logic–it’s fact

RealityCheck
Guest
House prices won’t revert to levels seen 10 years ago unless a massive economic shock happens or interest rates spike —> The latter will have 2 effects: 1) Monthly affordability deteriorates and 2) People with cash/equity will pump money into ‘GICs’ again (5% on $250,000?). I think this number 2 point is especially important and the gov is aware of it –> “Why buy a $250,000 condo when you can put it in a GIC earning $1000+ a month?” Unfortunately, rates will not rise for a long time because Gov/RE forces are against it. House prices in the past rose… Read more »
Asia and Canada on the rise
Guest
Asia and Canada on the rise

let chinese develop our resources and future of growth for Canada is set for the next 100 years

N
Guest

@RealityCheck:

“House prices won’t revert to levels seen 10 years ago unless a massive economic shock happens or interest rates spike”

How would you explain the collapse of the US bubble, which was preceded neither by a shock nor by a spike in interest rates?

Did you not watch the Tulip video? It’s there for your education you know, and while you might not think that counts for much, there may come a time when things change, so take a couple of minutes and watch the video.

Landbaron
Guest
Sold my Tulip, err, 2 bedroom condo in Port Moody a year and a half ago in the mid 300g’s and I was lucky to get that. It took 6 months and it was in a really good building during the height of the market. The buyers were honest and said they were going to live in it for a year or two then flip it for a profit. The young ‘german’ couple that moved in is currently listing the same unit for 30grand less than I sold for. If it sells at all it will be far below that.… Read more »
Landbaron
Guest

@condo watcher:

I agree, but don’t understand all the down votes for your comment?

condo watcher
Guest

Landbaron Says:
December 9th, 2012 at 6:28 pm

@condo watcher:

I agree, but don’t understand all the down votes for your comment?

ya, unbelievable– a lot more bulls today or really uniformed housing analysts–i’ve got pages and pages of listings and sales in the tri cities area alone that owners are dumping or have sold for less than they paid a few short years ago.

Con-Rad
Guest
@Landbaron: It’s not what he said it’s how he said it. Only b’s can say the b word. Also why is reality cheque getting hate tonight. Those are some interesting suggestions. I tried to do some basic math in the last thread, attempting to find how far prices could fall before the cash flow made sense. Only N bothered to give any suggestions to me on how to improve my basic calculations. I got more downvotes than anything. I guess it was how I asked, or there is something else going on. In any case I think my time here… Read more »
UnagiDon
Guest

6:35 “The stock exchange, the companies, the trading, and the willingness to speculate… we call it capitalism.”

I’m not sure that’s true. Can capitalism exist without speculation? I bet Benjamin Graham would think it can.

Landbaron
Guest

@condo watcher:

Coquitlam Centre is a great example, how many towers are going up or finishing around there right now?

Even with the new Evergreen Line it will still take an hour to get downtown with the 2 transfers. A beautiful area no doubt, but not worth the price. (I grew up there by the way)

Same thing with SFH on Burke Mountain. Once again beautiful, but the prices make it uneconomical.

I could go on about PoCo but that would be redundant…

Landbaron
Guest

@Con-Rad:

I rarely comment, so I would hope not to be the reason behind your decision. I respect discussion and actually have ‘liked’ some of your comments, although mostly ‘disliked’, whatever.

Regardless, at least you comment with a different viewpoint and that is always needed…keep it up

Did I just say that? 😉

RealityCheck
Guest

Confused on why all the downvotes on my previous post…post did not have a bull or bear tone. Maybe this isn’t the blog for an intelligent discussion…

southseacompany
Member

On a similar theme, but more comedic;

The Long Johns – The South Sea Bubble of 1720.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjN8q5rwLoo

Anonymous
Guest

@RealityCheck:

The thing is that

Anonymous
Guest
@RealityCheck: The thing is that, though you might not know it, the things that you said in at post are routinely said by people arguing that RE is a good investment. They were also said in the US before and during the busting of that bubble and in many other place as well. Those arguments have been successfully countered hundreds of times on this blog. So when you say them, though they might seem new to you, many people on this blog slap their foreheads and say, “Not again!” It’s not that people here don’t want to debate, it just… Read more »
Yalie
Guest

Con-Rad, I hope you reconsider and stick around. This blog is made better with more divergent viewpoints, bull or bear.

Incidentally, I generally agree with you that prices are likely in for a long, slow decline rather than a quick drop, and I think you have some other good points.

Landbaron
Guest

Wait a minute, isn’t this how Dutch auctions work?

Optimist
Guest

tonight “Asian shares firm as China, U.S. data brighten outlook”

no blood on the canadian streets for resident doomers.

condos
Guest

@condo watcher:

So, you want to compare houses as a whole the worst performing condo segments? And you got 20 up votes for such a suggestion? That’s not irrational.

Compare condos overall to detached over all. Condos are holding up better. It’s a fact. A real fact. Not a bear ‘fact’.

condos
Guest

@Apocarypse Mao:

“Condos are going down (3% HPI since peak) , not as fast as detached houses (5% HPI since peak). There have been larger drops on high end detached homes.”

Do you think you’re contradicting me? I don’t see what point your making.

Anonymous
Guest

@condos: “Condos are holding up better.”

Condos peaked in 2009 where houses peaked in 2011. Houses have come down more lately due to the fact they went up more. In the end both will go back to around the level they started at in 2003/2004.

Just like red tulip bulbs and yellow tulip bulbs. At first some people thought the red bulbs would hold up better than yellow but both collapsed to what they were worth prior to the bubble starting.

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