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[…] for 30K less than I sold for. If it sells at all it will be far below that. Flip fail!” – Landbaron at VCI 9 Dec 2012 at 6:28pm Share: This entry was posted in 11. Regrets about Investing in RE and tagged Anecdotes, British […]


I thought li ka shing was comedic genius, sure I thought the guy was nutz but I laughed out loud at some of his insanity

Short'em High

@Anonymous: Plunge-O-Meter Vancouver $21,363 per month decline / 30 days = $712/day payoff to bottom buyers. What a great trade!

604 Receding Gains

hey I just finally read a Bull! Bull! Bull! posting (by unclicking his trashed submissions…he’s normally voted off the VCI island by the time I catch up on postings). What a total nutjob. Rattling on about VHB, BPOM and Garth Turner’s anus. Wow, classic material. Reminds me of the good old days of Li Kai Shing. Remember that clown!

Anyway, how about creating a Bull Hall of Fame(shame)? Or some sort of other notable repository of nutjob submissions.


Vancouver real estate predicted to bottom in July 2014 with over a 50% decline from peak.


Short'em High

@painted turtle: G&M Demographics Comments Remember earlier when I asked to hear from the village idiot on the exact moment before the tulip/house bubble crisis. Well, I found it in the comments of the G&M article: George O. 8:29 PM on December 10, 2012 I’ve been reading these comments about the collapse of the housing market due the retirement of boomers for about twenty years. Prices might stop increasing but I don’t think there is going to be a general collapse. People might be interested in selling their houses but there won’t be enough who are desperate to sell their houses to cause a general price collapse. First of all, George O, if it is not a worry then why comment at all? If it’s just another false alarm and you think the chance of your paper RE wealth quickly… Read more »


@Bag it and tag it: I was wondering why I was voted down. Now I know 😉

Bag it and tag it

@Makaya: Looks like Sheryl just hacked the site and voted you down

scottsdale renter

Garth’s blog tonight is referencing a blog posting by pacifica partners:


Here are some interesting comments:

“The recent decrease in home sales has been incorrectly blamed on the July change in government insured mortgages.”

“The tightening of amortization periods served more as a real-time stress test for the Canadian real estate market than an attack on the Canadian consumers. Unfortunately in this stress test Canadian real-estate failed to display any resilience. ”

“The recent tightening of max amortization, however, was not anything new. Instead, the changes only served to reverse a 2006 decision by the then governing Federal Conservative party to raise the maximum amortization period from the then 25 year max (what it is again now) to 40 years. This one decision may be remembered in Canadian economic history books as an extremely grievous policy error.”



and since we are talking about currencies, why do you think the US biz media forcing extremly negative story about imminent collapse of euro ? you think that there is no hidden motive.


……US neocon imperialism

Riiiight….whatever you say comrade…..


It is not that she she is incompetent but she shill for US neocon imperialism. She is paid to that. and National Post rag is platform for that.


@Makaya: it looks like Sheryl Cooper is incompetent not just in RE… Check this out: ‘Time for U.S. loonie’ Sherry Cooper, The National Post, Nov. 9, 2001 “What makes us think we can buck this tide? Let’s dollarize and get it over with while we still have something to bargain with. We are in a relatively strong position. While we are harmonizing immigration policy, border controls, airline security and trade policy, why not proceed to dollarize as well? We will do this, inevitably, when the pain of a falling loonie finally gets to be too great. I know we think this would mean a loss of sovereignty. The loonie is a symbol of our independence. But Germany, France and ten other European countries have managed to form a monetary union without losing their national identities or cultural distinctions. Better now… Read more »


Good post over at ZH today.


Probably the only defendabke Bull thesis for a soft landiing, and/or continued housing appreciation in Vancouver.


@oneangryslav2: Wow there are two Nebraska fans in Vancouver?! I almost played ball there.


@HAM Solo: @HAM Solo: Re: CDIC Not many people seem to know this, but CDIC only insures deposits up to $100k. So if you have your money in a federally regulated bank (TD, RBC, etc), you’re at risk of losing anything more than 100k if it goes bankrupt. On the other hand, BC credit unions are insured by a different entity, the CUDIC, which has no limit. Bottom line: in case you needed yet another reason to withdraw your money from the big evil banks and put it into a less-evil BC credit union, you may want to do so if you have more than 100k in your account. And if you the whole idea of a Canadian bank going bankrupt sounds like crazy talk, have a look at this list of over 60 US banks that went under in… Read more »


@Bull Bull Bull
Forgive BPOM ..he is little bit rattled by Nexen deal the other day..LOL..Thanks to Harpy every time he fill up the gas profit will go to China..and fucker can’t do a dam thing about it..


We weren’t in a position to buy anything in 2005. Fresh out of school with nothing to our name and saddled by student loan. We got rid of the student loan by 2008 (maybe too aggresive, but we’re debt averse).We just assume house price has always been expensive and it is normal to spend that much money on housing (compared to your income). Never heard of Price-to-rent, price-to-income. The first time we had an opportunity to buy was in 2008. The US housing market just crashed, stock markets crashed (and knocked us some), Canadian government brought out 0/40. Our friends left and right are buying. Some got early inheritance, some dared themselves into 0/40, some with borrowed money. It didn’t feel right to buy a property when US property just cratered. We researched online and found this site among others.… Read more »


@paulb: Wow! Our first >100% sell-list day in months! Congratulations bulls! This reminds me of the time Texas Tech defeated Nebraska about 7 years ago or so: Texas Tech hung 70 on the ‘Huskers, but Nebraska fans had a fleeting moment of joy when their team was able to score a touchdown late in the 4th quarter to make the final score 70-14.

Moral of the story: I’d have much rather been a Texas Tech fan that evening, and I’d much rather be a housing bear in Vancouver in December 2012, despite the “consolation touchdown” the bulls may have scored today. Now don’t screw up the extra point, you bulls!


@HAM Solo:
>For your reading pleasure, the latest CDIC annual report.

Yep. Today I ran across this (4 days old) FT article about CDIC’s US counterpart – FDIC. The piece discusses the danger of the TAG (Transaction Account Guarantee: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporary_Liquidity_Guarantee_Program) program introduced in 2008 to calm down the lending market.

Watch out for the second US cliffhanger
By Gillian Tett
December 6, 2012 4:21 pm
http://bit.ly/UbVid4 (google cached version)

Total days	19
Days elapsed so far	6
Weekends / holidays	4
Days missing	0
Days remaining	13
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	74
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	88
Sales so far	429
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	965
Projected month end total	1394
Listings so far	586
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1149
Projected month end total	1735
Sell-list so far	73.2%
Projected month-end sell-list	80.3%
Inventory as of December 10, 2012	15610
Current MoI at this sales pace	11.20

New Listings 78
Price Changes 50
Sold Listings 86



“In the end, if you purchased in 2005, then good for you.”

Not so good unless he sells near the peak, as I’ve pointed out. Someone who bought in 2005 would have run up a huge deficit against renting at least until rates dropped at the end of 2008, and that deficit compounds going forward. Which means it doesn’t take much of a drop in prices to reach the break even point with someone who has rented since 2005 and then buys.

This sort of thing is beyond the comprehension of most people, but that’s why we get bubbles anyway. Most people cling to the fallacy that they’ve “made money” on something they’re holding on to simply because the market price has gone up.

HAM Solo

A new area I have been thinking about lately … on the subject of where the borrowers get the money…is the Canadian Deposit Insurance Company, or CDIC. Until recently, this must have been the most boring entity in the country. A fire department in a city of fireproof houses. But, alas, times change. One of the dirty back doors of the current credit-fueled housing bubbles, in my view, is the fact that non-CMHC insured loans are still largely subject to a government guarantee in the form of deposit insurance. Follow the money: a) Home Capital Group raises $100 million of GIC money at 10-15 basis point spread above triple A borrowers from retail investors investing through discount brokerages, insurance agents etc, b) Home Capital Group turns around and uses the money to extend credit card loans to otherwise delinquent condo… Read more »