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Don Lapre
Member
Don Lapre
3 years 1 month ago

First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!First!!

Guest
condos
3 years 1 month ago

Condos are holding up. Better than detached houses. How does bear logic explain that

Guest
Apocarypse Mao
3 years 1 month ago

@ Condos

Condos are going down (3% HPI since peak) , not as fast as detached houses (5% HPI since peak). There have been larger drops on high end detached homes.

Logic? There is no logic to speculative bubbles. They are not driven by the rationale hand of the market, they are psychologically and emotionally driven. No logic on way up; no logic on way down. Just sit back and watch it all unfold in it’s own unique and erratic way.

Guest
3 years 1 month ago

The HPI is sketchy… Take a random sampling of 20 condo’s around Vancouver and the suberbs and for each of these go to the assessment site and find sales in the same building. Next take the average price vs assessment % of last years sales then compare that to the current listing price vs assessment. You’ll see right away that prices are down for many of them by 20%+ and almost all by 10%+ and that’s based on them selling for asking which they are not.

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condo watcher
3 years 1 month ago

condos Says:
December 9th, 2012 at 1:00 pm

Condos are holding up. Better than detached houses. How does bear logic explain that

you better have a look at the tri cities and beyond –the condo markets in many places are a disaster–resales have been dropping for over 2&1/2 years in many areas–it’s nothing to do with logic–it’s fact

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RealityCheck
3 years 1 month ago

House prices won’t revert to levels seen 10 years ago unless a massive economic shock happens or interest rates spike —> The latter will have 2 effects: 1) Monthly affordability deteriorates and 2) People with cash/equity will pump money into ‘GICs’ again (5% on $250,000?). I think this number 2 point is especially important and the gov is aware of it –> “Why buy a $250,000 condo when you can put it in a GIC earning $1000+ a month?” Unfortunately, rates will not rise for a long time because Gov/RE forces are against it. House prices in the past rose… Read more »

Guest
Asia and Canada on the rise
3 years 1 month ago

let chinese develop our resources and future of growth for Canada is set for the next 100 years

Guest
N
3 years 1 month ago

@RealityCheck:

“House prices won’t revert to levels seen 10 years ago unless a massive economic shock happens or interest rates spike”

How would you explain the collapse of the US bubble, which was preceded neither by a shock nor by a spike in interest rates?

Did you not watch the Tulip video? It’s there for your education you know, and while you might not think that counts for much, there may come a time when things change, so take a couple of minutes and watch the video.

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Landbaron
3 years 1 month ago

Sold my Tulip, err, 2 bedroom condo in Port Moody a year and a half ago in the mid 300g’s and I was lucky to get that. It took 6 months and it was in a really good building during the height of the market. The buyers were honest and said they were going to live in it for a year or two then flip it for a profit. The young ‘german’ couple that moved in is currently listing the same unit for 30grand less than I sold for. If it sells at all it will be far below that.… Read more »

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Landbaron
3 years 1 month ago

@condo watcher:

I agree, but don’t understand all the down votes for your comment?

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condo watcher
3 years 1 month ago

Landbaron Says:
December 9th, 2012 at 6:28 pm

@condo watcher:

I agree, but don’t understand all the down votes for your comment?

ya, unbelievable– a lot more bulls today or really uniformed housing analysts–i’ve got pages and pages of listings and sales in the tri cities area alone that owners are dumping or have sold for less than they paid a few short years ago.

Guest
Con-Rad
3 years 1 month ago

@Landbaron: It’s not what he said it’s how he said it. Only b’s can say the b word. Also why is reality cheque getting hate tonight. Those are some interesting suggestions. I tried to do some basic math in the last thread, attempting to find how far prices could fall before the cash flow made sense. Only N bothered to give any suggestions to me on how to improve my basic calculations. I got more downvotes than anything. I guess it was how I asked, or there is something else going on. In any case I think my time here… Read more »

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UnagiDon
3 years 1 month ago

6:35 “The stock exchange, the companies, the trading, and the willingness to speculate… we call it capitalism.”

I’m not sure that’s true. Can capitalism exist without speculation? I bet Benjamin Graham would think it can.

Guest
Landbaron
3 years 1 month ago

@condo watcher:

Coquitlam Centre is a great example, how many towers are going up or finishing around there right now?

Even with the new Evergreen Line it will still take an hour to get downtown with the 2 transfers. A beautiful area no doubt, but not worth the price. (I grew up there by the way)

Same thing with SFH on Burke Mountain. Once again beautiful, but the prices make it uneconomical.

I could go on about PoCo but that would be redundant…

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Landbaron
3 years 1 month ago

@Con-Rad:

I rarely comment, so I would hope not to be the reason behind your decision. I respect discussion and actually have ‘liked’ some of your comments, although mostly ‘disliked’, whatever.

Regardless, at least you comment with a different viewpoint and that is always needed…keep it up

Did I just say that? 😉

Guest
RealityCheck
3 years 1 month ago

Confused on why all the downvotes on my previous post…post did not have a bull or bear tone. Maybe this isn’t the blog for an intelligent discussion…

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
3 years 1 month ago

On a similar theme, but more comedic;

The Long Johns – The South Sea Bubble of 1720.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjN8q5rwLoo

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@RealityCheck:

The thing is that

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@RealityCheck: The thing is that, though you might not know it, the things that you said in at post are routinely said by people arguing that RE is a good investment. They were also said in the US before and during the busting of that bubble and in many other place as well. Those arguments have been successfully countered hundreds of times on this blog. So when you say them, though they might seem new to you, many people on this blog slap their foreheads and say, “Not again!” It’s not that people here don’t want to debate, it just… Read more »

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Yalie
3 years 1 month ago

Con-Rad, I hope you reconsider and stick around. This blog is made better with more divergent viewpoints, bull or bear.

Incidentally, I generally agree with you that prices are likely in for a long, slow decline rather than a quick drop, and I think you have some other good points.

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Landbaron
3 years 1 month ago

Wait a minute, isn’t this how Dutch auctions work?

Guest
Optimist
3 years 1 month ago

tonight “Asian shares firm as China, U.S. data brighten outlook”

no blood on the canadian streets for resident doomers.

Guest
condos
3 years 1 month ago

@condo watcher:

So, you want to compare houses as a whole the worst performing condo segments? And you got 20 up votes for such a suggestion? That’s not irrational.

Compare condos overall to detached over all. Condos are holding up better. It’s a fact. A real fact. Not a bear ‘fact’.

Guest
condos
3 years 1 month ago

@Apocarypse Mao:

“Condos are going down (3% HPI since peak) , not as fast as detached houses (5% HPI since peak). There have been larger drops on high end detached homes.”

Do you think you’re contradicting me? I don’t see what point your making.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@condos: “Condos are holding up better.”

Condos peaked in 2009 where houses peaked in 2011. Houses have come down more lately due to the fact they went up more. In the end both will go back to around the level they started at in 2003/2004.

Just like red tulip bulbs and yellow tulip bulbs. At first some people thought the red bulbs would hold up better than yellow but both collapsed to what they were worth prior to the bubble starting.

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Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

Sellers getting desperate. Rent to own this dump for $3500 per month with 10k down.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3458524503.html

Yes sure. Market rent might be 2K per month for this 950 sq ft place in a older dated building. They are trying to sell it for 773K where it would never have sold for more than 600K at peak. Are people really this clueless?

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G Master
3 years 1 month ago

@Anonymous:

Housing price will drop in short term. but it won’t go down to 2003/2004 level. Just like price of Gold and Crude oil won’t go down to what they were used to be. Even parking in Vancouver rise over the last 10 years. Remember it was used to be free to park in Stanley Park? I dont think those days will be back.

The cause of all these is overprinting of money.

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Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@G Master: “Remember it was used to be free to park in Stanley Park?”

Because the city starting charging for parking in Stanley Park about 20 years ago housing will not correct? OK you win the worst argument ever for why housing will not correct.

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G Master
3 years 1 month ago

@Anonymous:

Well, I love group masterbating and fantasize about housing market will crash too. That’s why I come to this site to jerk off everyday.

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Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

I just heard about my friend’s brother’s former roommate who got stuck on a failed flip and how he doesn’t know how he’s going to renew his mortgage because the bank cut of his heloc and nothing’s moving and his tenants broke the stove and he was awake until 2am trying to fix it.

Epic! Bwahahaha!

patriotz
Member
3 years 1 month ago

@N: “House prices won’t revert to levels seen 10 years ago unless a massive economic shock happens or interest rates spike” How would you explain the collapse of the US bubble, which was preceded neither by a shock nor by a spike in interest rates? I don’t hear many people on this board claiming that nominal prices in Vancouver are going to roll back 10 years from today (which would be well over 50%), so the first quote is a bit of a strawman argument. Nominal house prices in the US rolled back only to 2003 levels, i.e. to 3… Read more »

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news junky
3 years 1 month ago

Why was Anonymous #13’s comment voted into foreclosure?! It has 13 down votes and NOT A SINGLE up vote before I voted for it. The comment is very bearish on the state of real estate so I don’t understand why it was voted into foreclosure. This is a blog for real estate bears, right?! So you don’t have to click on “click here to see” I am copying and pasting it for you. Anonynous 13 said: “I just heard about my friend’s brother’s former roommate who got stuck on a failed flip and how he doesn’t know how he’s going… Read more »

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news junky
3 years 1 month ago

Sorry I meant Anonymous #30 not #13.

Guest
news junky
3 years 1 month ago

Of course, my comment is already voted down. And Anonymous #30’s bearish comment now has 14 down votes. This site is being over run by bulls/trolls.

Guest
pricedoutfornow
3 years 1 month ago

Went to see a place for rent this weekend. Google confirmed this was an accidental landlord-place was listed for sale over the summer (huh, we actually went to the open a house a few months ago), guess it didn’t sell so here we were, prospective tenants. The accidental landlord wouldn’t admit to being an accidental landlord, said she was holding onto the property for investment (despite it being listed for sale just last month, guess she’s never heard of google), and wouldn’t consider a rental lease of longer than a year. Place would have been ok for us to rent… Read more »

Guest
news junky
3 years 1 month ago

Nevermind HAM, Canada also has HORM–Hot Oligarchic Russian Money! A corrupt Russian oligarch owns 111 condos in Toronto! Vitaly Malkin is a “Russian oligarch and member of the Russian senate” who was sent to Washington, DC to lobby against the passage of the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act, which is a law blacklisting Russian human rights abusers. From the National Post: “Mr. Malkin, the National Post revealed in 2009, has been blocked from entering Canada by Canadian authorities who accused him of organized crime involvement. In his fight to overturn that decision, it was revealed he owns 111… Read more »

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No Noise
3 years 1 month ago

@#34 News Junky

Actually the up/down voting system hasn’t been working properly for a while and seems to be getting worse. At the moment I can get the odd down-vote to take (and often have to vote something down that a normally wouldnt just to test) and I can never get an up vote to take. Maybe this is what’s happening to posts like . Seems to me there are normally way more votes either way.

Guest
AlanL
3 years 1 month ago

@No Noise: I like how the new voting system work. It kinda tells me how many bulls or boring realtors ™ visits this site. :)

Member
Patiently Waiting
3 years 1 month ago

The HAM pipeline is blocked. “The Immigrant Investor Program, which has been criticized as a way for people to buy their way into this country without contributing much to the national economy, has been in bureaucratic limbo since an overhaul was announced earlier this year. No new applications have been accepted since July 1 and won’t be until further notice. … By June 2012, the backlog was down to 85,598 people. As of 2011, the backlog was 91,248 people, representing 26,158 investors and 65,090 family members. If admission levels remained at current levels, CIC says it would take nearly 10… Read more »

Guest
condo watcher
3 years 1 month ago

condos Says: December 9th, 2012 at 9:36 pm @condo watcher: So, you want to compare houses as a whole the worst performing condo segments? And you got 20 up votes for such a suggestion? That’s not irrational. Compare condos overall to detached over all. Condos are holding up better. It’s a fact. A real fact. Not a bear ‘fact’. ——might i suggest you check the HPI for different areas of the Lower Mainland–you might be suprised—for instance the HPI for Pt Coq. condos year over year is 132.3 down to 130.4 this past Nov. while the HPI year over year… Read more »

Member
Patiently Waiting
3 years 1 month ago

Further to the CBC Ham article: “The uncertainty has made it more difficult for him and his co-owners — his wife, Jade, and another man — to plan for the future of a business that makes specialized car parts, employs more than 20 people and had sales last year of $2.5 million. Expansion plans for the company have been put off, but other preparations have gone full steam ahead as the Zhous remain hopeful they will be able to move to the other side of the world.” These facts about his business are not impressive at all. That $2.5 million… Read more »

Guest
Amen
3 years 1 month ago

As long as we are posting about historic bubbles, here is another one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADv5-Pen1L4
John Law and the Mississippi bubble.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@patriotz: “I don’t hear many people on this board claiming that nominal prices in Vancouver are going to roll back 10 years from today”

I think they will. It may come in 2 stages with the second stage coming after interest rates increase to normal levels but 50% average decrease seems about right to me. Keep in mind markets don’t always correct to a fair value they usually over correct.

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Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@news junky: Junky, my guess is it got voted down because it is a made up BS story copied and pasted from comment #58 in Friday’s thread. I just wanted to see if Con-Rad was right. Apparently he wasn’t.

Member
3 years 1 month ago

Prices will not return to levels 10 years ago cause interest rates will not return to levels 10 years ago. If we take the ups/downs of housing out, prices should settle at what is affordable monthly, and interest rates dictate that. Without more economic activity globally low rates are here to stay, which means everyone can afford more monthly which will keep prices high. Will prices come down? Absolutely. Will prices come down to 2002 levels? Doubtfully, the BoC rate was 6% then and I don’t see it > 2-3% anytime soon. Then consider the rules are still looser than… Read more »

Member
VHB
3 years 1 month ago

@taylor192: “Doubtfully, the BoC rate was 6% then and I don’t see it > 2-3% anytime soon.”

Define your time frame. Next 6 months? sure, you’re right. 5 years from now; 10 years from now? Not so sure, me.

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Vancouverist
3 years 1 month ago

Governments in BC have been hooked on the cash from real estate speculation since before this was even a Canadian province. And Langley almost became the capital of BC! From the Historical Atlas of Vancouver and the Lower Fraser Valley (Derek Hayes, 2005, Douglas & McIntyre): “With the sudden growth in importance of the mainland with the discovery of gold, and the founding of the new (mainland only) Colony of British Columbia, which Queen Victoria had proclaimed on 2 August 1858, the need for an administrative capital became apparent to James Douglas. Speculators seized on the site of old Fort… Read more »

Guest
No Noise
3 years 1 month ago

@ #38 AlanL

I really like the up/down voting system too – when it’s working..

Guest
Vancouverist
3 years 1 month ago

2013 going to be a replay of 1913? From the Historical Atlas of Vancouver and the Lower Fraser Valley (Derek Hayes, 2005, Douglas & McIntyre): “From its very beginning Vancouver seems to have held a special fascination for those who liked to invest, or rather, speculate, in real estate. The city had been a playground for real estate agents in the five years after its founding and was once again when boom times returned between 1906 and 1912. By the latter date, there were about 170 real estate companies operating in Vancouver. Lots were surveyed and many were sold, some… Read more »

Member
victoria
3 years 1 month ago

I have to say when I lived in Toronto I had one of my kids at the Toronto French School. The Russians there were amazing. One guy who said he was a carpenter drove an Aston Martin. Another guy who said he was an electrician showed up with his Prada wearing wife everyday in a new Mercedes, BMW, etc. My daughter was invited to a couple of birthday parties. I had never seen anything like it. The goody bag was about $200. I ran into one Russian woman at a very high end children’s store. Jacadi – anyway she was… Read more »

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