debt, economy, prices, rates

US Fed creating another bubble

39
39 Comments

Here’s an interesting article showing the huge effect that interest rates have on house prices.

Record low interest rates help to support high housing prices and higher rates reduce the amount of money that can be borrowed, all other things being equal.

When rates return to normal levels home prices will be depressed.

And when you see the impact record low rates have on purchase prices, you might be as concerned as I am.

I never thought I’d see the day when you could get a 30-year fixed rate loan at just 3.31 percent, but that was the case last week according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of mortgage lenders. While most people probably just shake their head at these astonishingly low numbers, it is homebuyers who are seeing the kind of impact they have on monthly mortgage payments and, as shown below, this effect is profound.

Based on a constant mortgage payment of $1,100 per month (what seemed to be a good national average based on this story and others like it), today’s 3.31 percent 30-year mortgage rate will finance a house at almost double the price that the 40-year average mortgage rate would!

Read the full article here.

39 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Many Franks

More on Carney’s recent divergent messages on interest rates — “be careful, we might need to raise rates” on one hand, “we need to firmly commit to continued low rates” on the other — courtesy of a derisive Mish.

0
0
patriotz

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2012/12/11/non-distressed-median-up-less-than-5-from-2011/

As of November, the non-distressed median price for King County single family home sales sits at $430,000, up 4.9% from a year earlier. November matched this year’s high point from June.

King County is the core area of metro Seattle, including Seattle city and Bellevue. It excludes Pierce County (including Tacoma) to the south and Snohomish County (including Everett) to the north, both of which are cheaper.

0
0
patriotz

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/09/realestate/in-miami-using-the-south-american-playbook.html?hp&_r=0

So Miami developers have taken a page from the South American playbook — a handy strategy, given how many willing buyers are flocking to Miami from that continent. Developers of several condos downtown and at the beach are requiring initial deposits of 40 percent or more, and more as they get closer to completion. By the time the building is finished, buyers are forking over as much as 80 percent of the total price of their apartments.

Because the banks aren’t willing to hold the bag during construction any more. Coming soon north of the border?

0
0
midnite toker

Phew. It’s back, that made for a boring bus ride earlier. I’ll try to click on more ads to help u out brother.

0
0
jesse

From my records, 2011 saw 1658 reported sales (82.9/day), the first 10 days of December had 898 “paulb” sales for average daily sales of 89.8 (1.083 above monthly reported average). 2010 was 1899 (90.4) with 100 (1.106). Projecting 10 days gets us to about 687 or 68.7/day, using the blended ratio (1.094) would put us at 62.79/day or 1193 sales for December.

December 2012 is a shorter month than normal — only 19 business days assuming Boxing Day is a statutory — which is why sales will appear weaker.

The wheels are not falling off this market, but it looks like one of the wheel lugs has loosened a bit. My prediction: 2013 will be an odd year.

0
0
Sidelines

The thumbs up/down aren’t working for me… Could it be Belarus? Cue the spooky music!

0
0
VHB
Total days	19
Days elapsed so far	7
Weekends / holidays	4
Days missing	0
Days remaining	12
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	66
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	82
SALES	
Sales so far	489
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	797
Projected month end total	1286
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	670
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	979
Projected month end total	1649
Sell-list so far	73.0%
Projected month-end sell-list	78.0%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of December 11, 2012	15505
Current MoI at this sales pace	12.06
0
0
BRITTANNY

Having a hard time accessing this site as well. I am not a conspiracy theorist but it makes yo wonder, don’t it…………….

0
0
paulb.

Couldn’t access the site earlier…

New Listings 84
Price Changes 44
Sold Listings 60
TI:15505

http://www.paulboenisch.com

0
0
HFHC

This site is not working for me either

0
0
oneangryslav2

@admin: Belarus, you say?!? Maybe Lukashenko is looking to store some capital in the safe haven of Vancouver real estate.

0
0
Anonymous

@RaggedyRenter: “Probably it’s just some spammer trying to post comments or possibly steal logins/e-mail address. No Hot Belarussian Money here”

Come on, it’s the West Coast, everybody want to hack here. ‘Blogs’, they’re not making any more of them.

0
0
Dave

Let’s rack this one up to Karma. When you vote down legit debate, you just might get voted down yourself.

0
0
RaggedyRenter

Probably it’s just some spammer trying to post comments or possibly steal logins/e-mail address. No Hot Belarussian Money here

0
0
patriotz

@C.Junta:
In the past reductions in federal public service staff have usually been matched pretty closely by increases in consultants – often the same people who were let go. We will see whether the walk matches the talk this time.

Note that the “federal public service” does not include the military, RCMP, or Crown Corporations. The Feds recently purchased the old Nortel complex in Ottawa for DND.

Assuming that the feds really do plan to cut the payroll (including consultants), it makes the recent disproportional runup in RE prices in Ottawa even more illogical. It’s the areas that are closer to downtown – i.e. which house the most public sector employees – which have gone up the most, compared to say Kanata where the high tech workers live.

0
0
Patiently Waiting

@Aleksey: I suspect its someone interested in the level of sales activity rather than just prices. Prices haven’t fallen that much so just about any worried homoaner should probably be able to still get out in one piece, especially if they have deep pockets. If they don’t have deep pockets, they got more pressing problems than this blog.

This could be an action of some rogue part of the real estate industry. Some wealthy, sleazy people own real estate agencies and home lending businesses.

0
0
Landbaron

@Aleksey:

I’ve noticed way more bulls lately on this site (not a problem) but have also noticed trolls springing up like crazy. I’m guessing rogue realtors with too much time on their hands?

0
0
Homer Klaidel

How is that a conspiracy theory? A lot of people have done a lot worse for a lot less.

0
0
Aleksey

@admin:

Belarus? Oh, those Russian hackers!
Well, I’ll just throw it out there…
Is there even remote possibility that someone interested in high RE prices hired hackers to shut down VCI?
I know, conspiracy theories suck big time, but that’s a first thought came to my mind.

0
0
C.Junta

OT
A bit of reassuring news in G&M today:
“Boom in public servants under Harper about to end, watchdog says”
http://bit.ly/UzJ1jP

“The number of “full-time equivalent” positions in the federal public service is projected to drop from 380,000 in 2010-11 to 349,000 in 2014-15 at the end of the government’s current cost-cutting plans. Even that level will still be slightly higher than the historical average of 336,400 full time public servants over the period from 1990-91 to 2011-12.”

“Looking south of the border, the PBO report found that the average U.S. federal public servant receives $110,400 (Canadian) in total compensation, compared to $111,300 for full time federal public servants in Canada.”

0
0
Skyfall

Wow – trolls re-routing their attacks through Belarus IP addresses….

It seems this site has caught the attention of a few Skyfall wannabes…

0
0
admin

Apologies to the bears, bulls and especially the very sensitive trolls. We seem to have a few problems that we are trying to take care of. Popularity of the site is up which means more visitors and at the same time someone from Belarus seems to have taken a great interest in vancouver real estate. We’ve blocked some IPs and shut down Vancouver Peak for the time being.

Hopefully VCI will have better responsiveness now and time permitting we’ll be doing further improvements to the efficiency of the site.

Vague enough for you? Thanks all for your patience.

0
0
Slightly Bullish

@HAM Solo:

Thanks for your baseless speculation HAM Solo. It’s always good to hear people’s uniformed opinions regarding matters they have no information on, especially on this blog.

Maybe VHB can make some attractive but completely useless graphs showing up time, latency, etc.

0
0
HAM Solo

I doubt we are getting hacked. I suspect the problem is more technical in nature, or related to broader internet troubles.

However, it would be great to hear from the administrator whether they have looked into the problems at all and what has been done about it.

0
0
Reality Bull!

vancouvercondo.info calls US real estate a bubble. That’s a sure sign to buy property in the USA today and sell it for a handsome profit in 7 years.

0
0