13,000 listings to kick off 2013. Let’s Party.

According to Paulb the listings odometer just rolled over the 13,000 mark.

As of last night the inventory count hit 13,035.

Of course that means it’s time for a party.

Any one think it’s possible that we might hit 14k before the month end expiries kick in?

Crashcow points out that it could happen:

Avg daily inventory growth this month: 125
Projected month-end inventory: 14,406

Although possible doesn’t mean probably.  Historically sales pick up past the halfway point in January according to VHB:

For the quant-minded, some numbers!

period sell list percent
2011Jan1sthalf 70  216 33%
2011Jan2ndhalf 110 260 42%
2012Jan1sthalf 57  271 21%
2012Jan2ndhalf 90  277 32%
2013Jan1sthalf 54  227 24%

So, if this January follows the pattern we can expect about a 50% increase in sales in the 2nd half of the month. This would mean we should average around 80 sales/day in the 2nd half of Jan2013. Listings might tick up a bit, but not by 50%.

 

82 Responses to “13,000 listings to kick off 2013. Let’s Party.”

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    Q: When does a price “soften”?
    A: When it’s “frothy and overheated”.

    Economics is easy! It’s just like making a souffle!

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/due-to-a-steep-sales-drop-vancouvers-home-prices-have-softened/article7398676/

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 2

    Brings to mind the Lawrence Welk of finance:

    Mr. Greenspan emphasized that he sees no sign of a nationwide housing bubble, but he acknowledged concerns over “froth” in the market and pointed to a big increase in speculation in homes – particularly in second homes. As a result, he said, there are “a lot of local bubbles” around the country…

    Mr. Greenspan acknowledged on Friday that many people were “reaching” to finance their purchases.

    But he predicted that housing prices were unlikely to decline much, if at all.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/21/business/21fed.html?_r=0

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 1

    Property Brothers is casting for its Vancouver edition now:

    “Property Brothers is looking for couples or families in Vancouver and the Greater Vancouver Area! We want to help you create your dream home!

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    http://www.cineflixproductions.com/casting/show/198-Property-Brothers-is-Casting-in-Vancouver-Now-

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    Would-be realtor who purchased realtor course pack in 2010 has decided she does not want to become a real estate agent after all and is selling her realtor course material at a significant discount:

    “Purchased course in 2010 and only completed two quizes and then decided not to finish it. Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened….calculator costs $70+ and course was $1000.”

    http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/pml/bfs/3549235818.html

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 1

    BRITTANNY Says:
    5

    Tsunami of listings will start next week. The “new” spring market.There will be “no” ozone when it heats up and scorches MLS.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 7

    pricedoutfornow Says:
    6

    Doug Porter of BMO on CBC radio’s early edition this morning. Says there needs to be some “external event” that would cause a housing crash in BC. But also admits BC (Vancouver) has had some dramatic housing busts and booms. Commented on the current stalemate between buyers and sellers (hey, didn’t this happen in the US right before some people realized they HAD to sell, and dropped their prices dramatically, thus angering those who had little equity?). I would say there are many people in the Vancouver market who will HAVE to sell-those who, for example have bought a second property without selling the first, and now are having a hard time finding tenants willing to pay the rent they need to pay the first mortgage.
    Nah, despite what some economist says, I still think this market’s due for a serious correction, it’s only a matter of time before sellers give up and start accepting lowball offers.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    7

    …only completed two quizes …

    They have quizzes? Wow.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 1

    Q:

    I think this statement applies to most realtors:

    “Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened.”

    Poor girl… she completed “only” 2 quizzes before she quit? Someone should have told her there was only one more to go!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 41 Thumb down 1

    I have just posted my Thoughts on Pricing Property in a Declining Market.

    http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Thoughts-on-Pricing-Property-in-a-Declining-Market

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    specialfx3000 Says:
    10

    Re: #4
    “Purchased course in 2010 and only completed two quizes and then decided not to finish it. Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened….calculator costs $70+ and course was $1000.”

    Now asking $350

    Perhaps this is a perfect reflection of what’s to come for local RE:.

    Her POS speculative investment was made just a couple years ago and now sees a 65% drop in value.

    The Realtard A$$ociation sure knows how to rip people off. I can’t see Realtors needing to use scientific functions on a calculator. A $70 calculator?

    They just need to mark up a house by X% and subtract by a greater % after accepting a low-ball offer. Wouldn’t a dollar-store calculator that does +,-,X,%, be suffice?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 2

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    11

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 30

    Many Franks Says:
    12

    Not much detail, but any thoughts on Canadians gobble up foreign debt in November?

    The data agency said Canadians bought $6.2 billion worth of foreign debt during the month, the highest level seen since March of 2007. A record $5.7 billion purchase of U.S. government bonds made up most of that.

    …and…

    On the flip side, foreign appetite for Canadian securities dried up. Foreign investors bought $5.6 billion worth of Canadian stocks and bonds in November, the lowest level seen since July.

    Could it be that Canada suddenly isn’t looking like a great place to invest, either domestically or from without?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 1

    DonLogan Says:
    13

    Perhaps a calculator that was easier to open would’ve made all the difference. That plastic packaging can be a nightmare.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 2

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 30

    ” i’m glad to see other people are starting to see how completely useless VHB’s posts and data are. it’s too bad he doesn’t follow the lead of other quality posters and give some insightful information.”

    B B B !’s personal hate-on for me is both revealing and cute. Maybe BBB can explain his hate in more detail, and thus reveal more of his own insecurities and personal issues. Please, BBB, explain for us why I am such a bad person!

    :x (A kiss just for BBB. No one else steal it please!)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 44 Thumb down 6

    Cover of Canadian Business Feb 2013 edition: How Low Will House Prices Go? -20% and stay down for years!

    Actual article: http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-low-will-house-prices-go/#

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    RealityCheck Says:
    17

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 18

    @Dave:

    We saw what happened in 2009 when prices took a quick correction.

    Yes, the BoC dropped interest rates from 5% to 1%. I guess that means now they’re going to drop from 1% to -3%.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 53 Thumb down 1

    Many Franks Says:
    19

    @Reality Check:
    Before a potential buyer can fret in earnest about carrying costs, they have to worry about qualification. Qualification got a lot tougher in the months before amorts moved to 25 years (the last shock to carrying costs), and sales turned down with the former, not the latter.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 3

    What do you want me to say… WOW.

    I’m not surprised the sales are where they are. I would love to know how does it feels to be a realtor right now (especially one who wrote about the positive outlook of Canadian real estate market in 2013).

    Vancouver RE market will hold, but I fear condo owners will probably jump from the window in one or two years.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3

    Short'em High Says:
    21

    Many Franks Says:
    January 17th, 2013 at 9:16 am

    Not much detail, but any thoughts on Canadians gobble up foreign debt…

    This chart also shows the outflows since November:

    http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CADUSD%3DX#symbol=;range=3m

    This reflects impatience with our own Carey Grant of finance, Mark Carney.

    Carney’s inaction on the low hanging fruit of excessive consumer and government debt signals sovereign default. There is no point of an independent monetary policy if it simply pegs the playbook to the US Fed.

    Markets expected the only apolitical entity that could do the job to act in November. Instead they found out that that Carey Grant was protecting his prospects of getting more work at a different movie studio in England.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    22

    ….The word on the street is that there are plenty of buyers about. …

    What street would that be? Oh yea, Fantasy Avenue.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 0

    gordholio Says:
    23

    #14, Dave:

    You say: “I still see prices drifting downwards, but the apparent demand seems to remain so I doubt we can drop too much.”

    I’m interested in what sort of “drop” you forecast. I’m not an economist, nor am I an edumacated realtor. But my common sense perspective tells me your “drifting downwards” prognostication has ALREADY HAPPENED and a 40 – 50% annihilation is not only possible, but highly likely.

    There’s nothing – no Chinese invasion, no unbridled mania, no lack of supply (have you seen how much crap is being built these days?), no Cam Good helicopter yellow journalism bullsh*t, no freaking money – to keep this pig from plummeting to the depths of hell. Which is precisely where it belongs.

    Sorry for the aggression. I can’t help myself. Your post is typically vague realtor-esque garbage.

    “Word on the street.” “Plenty of buyers.” “Lots checking things out.” “Apparent demand.” “Doubt we can drop too much.”

    Absolutely meaningless drivel. Precisely what I’d hear if I was idiot enough to talk to one of the kazillion realtors right here in my own neighbourhood trying to pawn off any of the nearly 100 overpriced, barfed-up-in-a-month crapholes that are currently awaiting nimrods…er, buyers.

    I’ll repeat: One of the best moves we ever made was selling in late 2010 for way too much money and becoming…gasp…renters. Anyone deluded/stupid enough to buy now while we’re just off the peak of the fattest, greediest RE bubble we’ll ever see deserves their horrific fate.

    Ah…that feels better. Nothing like a morning real estate rant to make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 70 Thumb down 5

    @anonymous: “They have quizzes? Wow.”

    Don’t tell anybody, but I have managed to get my hands on some of the questions. ;)

    QUIZ #1, Question 6:
    “You are with your client at a showing, and are making very good progress on convincing the client to buy. When a fire suddenly breaks out, what do you do?
    (A) Act casual, lower the sunglasses from your forehead, and extol the virtues of the new heating system
    (B) Remind the client about the great bbq’s to be had at the property
    (C) ‘Remember’ that you left your beemer lights on, but insist the client sign for the purchase while you briefly step out
    (D) Block the exit, and place a purchase contract between the client and the door
    (E) All of the above”
    .
    Way I see it, there is a metaphorical “fire” going on right now in the ongoing collapse of Vancouver prices. The carnage is undoubtedly going to destroy at least some families, marriages, and futures. People who lose out will be forced to make decisions they otherwise would not have (not having a child, working until later in life, depleting savings, going bankrupt, etc).

    But what is the RE MSM saying about this ‘fire’? “Nothing to see here! This is not a fire at alL! Carry on and don’t mind the heat.”

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 4

    “One of the best moves we ever made was selling in late 2010 for way too much money and becoming…gasp…renters.”

    Ya, one of the best moves I ever made was to pick an incompetent realtor to sell my parents’ SFH in summer 2010 who ended up not selling it. Then, in spring 2011, my parents picked another realtor sold it for over-asking and 10% higher than the first listing price. And yes, my parents are renting now, with the interest income from the cash proceeds offsetting most of the rent.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 1

    “plenty of buyers about”

    Orly? A buyer is only a buyer if he buys. Otherwise he’s nothing. Ask a Realtor.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 37 Thumb down 1

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    27

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 36

    @VHB
    You can tell how important the opposing forces consider your work and insights by how much somebody like “Bull! Bull! Bull!” targets you.

    If I wear you I would wear Bull’s comments like a badge of honour, and his obvious aggravation would send clear signals to me that I’m doing the right thing.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 2

    Groundhog Says:
    29

    @Jesse

    “Orly? A buyer is only a buyer if he buys. Otherwise he’s nothing. Ask a Realtor.”

    That was my thoughts. I sometimes look at open houses in the neighbourhood and am always in general looking around at whats for sale. Won’t be buying until at least late 2014 at the earliest though.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    Democrass Says:
    30

    Sorry, Dave, but the government wants lower RE prices. In 2008, the put rates to the floor and opened the mortgage credit flood gates because the government wanted higher prices and they wanted to ignite a borrowing and spending boom. They went too far.

    Now the governemnt is wants lower prices and lower household debt.

    The government controls the RE market. It goes up when they want and it goes down when they want.

    RE spokesmen jabber on about a trigger to make the market fall. The trigger was the government deciding to reduce mortgage debt. If you want higher prices, go lobby the government. But I have a feeling that the gov listens to its creditors and to the rating agencies and not to real estate agents.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 2

    Absinthe Says:
    31

    @Crikey and @VHB

    - Agreed. And, whatever Bull-cubed says, it’s been awesome to have someone calling out the hysteria.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Democrass Says:
    32

    The toronto real estate board is telling bald faced lies to keep the price momentum going up:

    Here’s today’s example, courtesy of the cartel running the Toronto real estate market. Reporting their mid-month numbers, TREB said 1,469 properties changed hands in the last two weeks. “This result represented an increase of 2.4 per cent over the 1,435 transactions reported during the same period in 2012.” And as for prices, “The average selling price during the first 14 days of 2013 was by up by four per cent on a year-over-year basis.”

    What, no softening? Is this truly that elusive soft landing taking place? Is Garth actually not omniscient (but still has a great butt)? “The GTA is not suffering a correction,” one of our resident realtors rushed to comment. “TREB stats prove. The so-called correction has turned to a fizzle. Awwwww. Sales up, prices up…say what, Garth?”

    I say be careful what you swallow.

    In January of 2012 the real estate board reported 1,506 sales. This January the number’s 1,469. This isn’t a 2.4% increase, but a 2.5% decrease. Every month the realtors fudge their numbers without publishing corrections, which means they can pretty much say what they want. And do.

    And that price increase? Ditto. Let’s compare detached houses in 416 which averaged $743,993 for all of last January. This year that same house costs $720,759, which is $23,000 less. So how is a 3.1% decrease an increase?

    http://www.greaterfool.ca

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    33

    #4 Q
    “Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened”
    I’d be willing to bet there are a lot of realtors in this city that could make that claim about their calculator.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 1

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    34

    #8 Veej…Damn…you stole my joke! ;-)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    Ad hominem gauge going higher… umad?
    We now have validation of the comment hiding system.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    Best place on meth Says:
    36

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 1

    Many Franks Says:
    37

    From Banks see more evidence of slowing mortgage growth:

    Historically, bull housing markets have tended to end sharply with little warning. But among financial industry players there is growing consensus that this time will be different.

    Yep, I’ll bet. Any justification for that antihistorical conclusion? Nope. But what I’m really enjoying is all the soothing, gentle language — cooling, easing, a healthy development that will eliminate the froth. Wait, we’re still talking about Rick Santorum, right?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    asalvari1 Says:
    38

    bpom

    I was looking for a good deal on those takeovers, and I was shocked, shocked to see how poorly they were done when signing. My overall impression was that they just signed the papers they were given, without even calculating the totals (apparently their calculators are still shrink wrapped).

    NO QUESTION they are “how much per month” people, and the careless deals would most likely put them as realtors.

    I quickly scanned few of those, and unloading them is going to be B.I.T.C.H. these days.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    @ Dave:

    “The word on the street is that there are plenty of buyers about. Not many closing on deals, but lots checking things out.”

    I like this. What you report may very well be true. You know what I like best about it? That most people with an interest in buying appear to be “checking things out” and “not closing deals”. I love it. The longer they do that for, the more of them will realise where prices are heading. And the very shiniest tools in the bucket among them may well put two and two together and realise that if they wait…. and then wait some more…. and wait…. they can save a lot of money. Who doesn’t love a lot of money??

    Jesse says your “buyers” are nothing. I say they are worse than that. They are “waiters.” Or, “correction sharks”. Or, “bubble vultures”.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 0

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    40

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Bo Xilai Says:
    41

    Talked to a commercial banker (One of the big 5) from Abbotsford yesterday. Says everybody he deals with is already underwater on their homes and have no equity left. I asked him if it was because they used their houses as ATMs… Nope, just overpaid and prices are already down 10-20% from the time they bought. They might want to sell, but they would have to bring a cheque to the closing.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 42 Thumb down 0

    Here are the neighbourhood sales results for the last 45 days from December 1, 2012 to January 15, 2013 for single family homes in Richmond, B.C:

    http://www.shuchatgroup.com/Blog.php/home

    The entire commentary is fun to read, but I especially like this one:

    “Sellers often suspend or terminate listings with the hope of renewing them in the new year. This has been especially the case for Richmond where there has been the usual “prayer” for the new wave of Asian immigrants that come to visit with housing plans as the Chinese New Year approaches. ** That plan didn’t work out last year ** and I am surmising that we will only see a trickle this year as well.”

    Sell-list of 7% for Richmond SFH. I am sure the lookers Dave mentioned in an earlier post will EVENTUALLY buy.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 0

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    43

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Conversely, You’re betting on the *sellers* having the patience and nerves to wait and then wait some more… and putting off plans for retirement, divorce, moving, downsizing, dying(!), etc.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 1

    Canadian Business magazine article entitled “How low will house prices to? Prices are headed down for the long term.”

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-low-will-house-prices-go/#

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0

    “Before every housing correction, there’s a Looney Tunes moment. In the animated universe, there’s a gravitational peculiarity that briefly suspends an overzealous pursuer in mid-air, just long enough to flash a HELP! sign, before plummeting off the cliff he failed to navigate. When it comes to overheated real estate, there is a pause that follows the outset of a correction, during which the market fails to realize there is nothing below but air.”

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-low-will-house-prices-go/#

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    47

    As far as buyers, I know one person that bought yesterday. They just got their first “serious” job and the obvious next step is to buy. They looked for about a month and bought the first one they liked, no negotiation on the ask price. This person doesn’t watch the news, or read newspapers, or have any opinion for that matter on where prices are headed, or did any math on buy vs. rent.

    It was just a simple, I got a job, now I buy a house.

    There will always be some buyers in the market, the market isn’t going to go to zero sales.

    As far as Dave’s anecdotal reference, I guess we’ll just have to wait a few weeks/months and see if it turns out in an increase in sales. Patience people, patience……This takes time. House prices might even go up for a couple months during a 50% decline.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 32 Thumb down 1

    @gokou3
    we know Dec 2012 Richmond SFH sales = 44
    That site quotes 52 SFH sales in Richmond from Dec 1-Jan 15, making Januarary sales ~ 8.

    Another source in a RE forum also said:
    Richmond SFH sales (Jan 1-16) = 10
    Total Richmond SFH Inventory = 753.

    If the sales stats are reliable, then at this pace (while considering slightly higher Jan 17-31 sales), Richmond might see Jan/13 SFH sale of 30s with Month-end inventory ~800, making MOI~24. That also means sales @ -60% YoY and -30% MOM Not a very good way to start a Richmond realtor’s year.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    49

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 22

    “Engage in the discussion”

    Perhaps Realtors should change their “parlance” to include the following:
    lookie-loos
    busybodies
    tire-kickers
    time-wasters
    window-shoppers
    water-testers
    low-ballers

    “Buyers” they are not.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1

    “Thrill Seekers”

    (The people with nothing more exciting to do than go down to open houses and bid 50% of asking)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 1

    @Ludvig

    “My sense is that a lot of people don’t actually believe the market is going to tank dramatically, and they might start making offers when they see prices down about 15%.”

    That may make sense today, but the thing is that once the market is down 15%, the number of people who believe that the market is going to tank dramatically will have increased quite a bit.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 46 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    53

    ….lookie-loos
    busybodies
    tire-kickers
    time-wasters
    window-shoppers
    water-testers
    low-ballers……

    Don’t forget lowlifes casing the joint for their next score.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

    southseacompany Says:
    54

    In bookstore at lunch. Saw this great cover story on Canadian Business magazine;

    “How low will house prices go?
    Prices are headed down for the long term.”

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-low-will-house-prices-go/

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    55

    “The government controls the RE market. It goes up when they want and it goes down when they want.”

    They can do the latter any time, but the economy develops tolerance to the former.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 4

    @patriotz Says:
    56

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 34

    …double-deckers…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    20 K party June everyones invited 20% off to the last of the fools

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2

    Many Franks Says:
    59

    Some wishful thinking as yet another market tries to distance itself from Vancouver. (Funny, they’re usually advertising their convenient proximity.)

    After a brief lull in business in the latter half of 2012, when properties lingered on the market a little longer than usual and prices stalled, activity is once again starting to pick up.

    “We’ve noticed, in the month of December, a lot more confidence. We are getting calls for from all different types of buyers who are eager and asking questions about homes we’ve had for sale for six months,” said Love, who’s worked for 20 years primarily in the Tri-Cities for the family-run firm Coldwell Banker Love Realty.

    That’s surprising, because the REBGV stats say that sales dropped significantly from November to December in the tri-cities.

    The slow times don’t worry him too much.

    No, nope. No way. Not a bit! Not me, Bub. Not a chance. Not worried at all.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 0

    /dev/null Says:
    60

    A little anecdote to share: a boomer couple (friends of parents) have their house on the market. Typical couple married 35 years, kids grown up etc. But he’s had an affair and admitted it and so they’re headed for divorce.

    So she moves out to a rental suite and they put the house (North Shore) on the market while he’s still living in it. It’s an old house with lots of problems but they listed it high because it’s the funding for their retirement. After 4 months on the market they get an offer for asking price, but despite her best efforts he turned it down because the sale date was 4 weeks later and he didn’t want to move out that fast. He’s living rent free and so isn’t motivated to move quickly. So, they let the only fish that gave them a bite get away.

    I’m not sure what universe he’s living. (I guess it’s the “real estate always goes up” universe.) They have some RRSPs but those get split – otherwise he has just the house sale the fund his retirement. She works part-time and will be OK, but he’s looking at a long, lean retirement.

    They really don’t seem to believe that their house might sell for less than it’s listed for. If falling prices become the new reality their urgency is going to spike. And they can’t be that different from many others that are counting on the house for retirement.

    It seems likely to me that for every person that says “Hey! Prices are down 15%! Let’s jump in!” there will be multiple people saying “Hey! Prices are down 15%! We better sell before they drop more!”. i.e. I think there’s a lot more pent-up supply then there is pent-up demand.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 45 Thumb down 1

    RealityCheck Says:
    61

    The Governments meddling in CMHC since 5% down payment was adopted and now keeping rates toooo low really screwed up the younger generation.

    Now the question is when will the gov start raising rates? When boomers start howling about their low rates of return on their GIC’s??

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

    HAM Solo Says:
    62

    @BX

    “Talked to a commercial banker (One of the big 5) from Abbotsford yesterday. Says everybody he deals with is already underwater on their homes and have no equity left. I asked him if it was because they used their houses as ATMs… Nope, just overpaid and prices are already down 10-20% from the time they bought. They might want to sell, but they would have to bring a cheque to the closing.”

    This is what nobody knows … and nobody selling bank stocks wants to hear.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 0

    Keeping An Eye On The Pimps Says:
    63

    “Now the question is when will the gov start raising rates? When boomers start howling about their low rates of return on their GIC’s??”

    It won’t be the gov who will start raising rates.

    The bond market will crash and rates will spike.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 3

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    64

    59 Many Franks
    WTF?? He siad last year prices in Van, W Van, Burnaby and Richmond climbed by as much as 30% last year! Scratch scratch

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    65

    @ManyFranks

    Wow, some outrageous comments in that article.

    “Where property prices in some areas of Vancouver, West Vancouver, Richmond and Burnaby climbed by as much as 30 per cent last year, prices in the Tri-Cities and New Westminster stayed the course.

    We didn’t really have that big increase,” said Love, noting $600,000 to $800,000 will still buy “a really good family home — well kept, basement suite, nice yard, quiet street.””

    Amazing that $600,000 – $800,000 is considered an affordable family home. We’re doomed.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 0

    New Listings 250
    Price Changes 63
    Sold Listings 52
    TI:13174

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 121 Thumb down 1

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    67

    60 dev/null/
    if the affair wasn’t bad enough, the shit’s really going to hit when they eventually sell the place for 20% below that offer, in a couple years after chasing the market down

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    68

    So when do 2nd half Jan sales pick-up?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 0

    Total days	21
    Days elapsed so far	12
    Weekends / holidays	5
    Days missing	0
    Days remaining	9
    7 Day Moving Average: Sales	53
    7 Day Moving Average: Listings	250
    SALES	
    Sales so far	659
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	479
    Projected month end total	1138
    NEW LISTINGS	
    Listings so far	2795
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	2248
    Projected month end total	5043
    Sell-list so far	23.6%
    Projected month-end sell-list	22.6%
    MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
    Inventory as of Jan 17, 2013	13174
    MoI at this sales pace	11.58
    

    Listings now projected over 5000 for month.

    Looks like the 2nd half of the month has forgotten to show up so far.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 48 Thumb down 0

    I’m not a statistician or mathematician but I came up with the following after reading a report by City Spaces Consulting prepared of the City of Vancouver in 2009. It notes:

    1) From the 2009 BCAA database, there were a total of 65,612 strata condominium apartment units in the city, 22,769 which were coded to be investor-owned and 42,843 which were estimated to be owner-occupied — 35.2% of the apartment condominium stock was therefore investor-owned and 64.8% was owner-occupied (Figure 1.2). (Note: this does not include duplexes, townhouses, stratified rental apartments or condominium units in buildings smaller than four units.)

    2) BC Hydro account usage data from 2006 and 2007 was used to classify condominium units as “empty” if their electricity usage levels were below a threshold of 100 kilowatts (Kw) of electricity
    per month. When the use threshold is 100 Kw per month, the estimate of empty units is 8.5% of units.

    3) 48% of apartment condo stock in downtown Vancouver is investor owned.

    Doing some rough math (8.5% * 65612) would show that about 5 580 condo’s are unoccupied in Vancouver (It’s probably higher, the data is from 2009). Larry’s site shows 5 336 condo’s were listed for sale at the end of December 2012 (That would be about 8.1% of the total units). If 31% of the listed units were were vacant, that would mean that 1 654 of the 5 580 unoccupied condo’s (29%) in Vancouver are currently listed for sale. Does this make sense? Could someone run a proper analysis?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    71

    We’ll see 300+ listings day this month.

    Mark my words.

    Shit is getting bad fast(er) now.

    Enjoy.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 28 Thumb down 9

    Groundhog Says:
    72

    Garth posted on this guy tonight:

    http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-85852-1044-.htm#85852

    What a schmuck

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 1

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    73

    I can smell the stench of fear building in the market.

    Hope will be lost.

    Expect 15% down (simple averages) within 150 days or less.

    This is going to get downright interesting.

    Like watching a cat on a hot tin roof.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 9

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    74

    72 Groundhog
    What a douche! I’ll bet his calculator is still in the package

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 1

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    75

    the real estate community has been spinning the stats for six months, hoping things would firm up

    we are now up against much more difficult comparative year over year price levels, and will be for a handful of months….it will be difficult (impossible?) to deny that prices are down, say 10%, from where they were a year ago within a month or two

    what trick(s) will they pull out of their bag then?

    guess – they’ll say, hey, just like the dip in 08/early 09, this is a buying opportunity, before prices resume their upward trajectory

    ya, that’s my guess…they gotta try something….

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 6

    Achilles HELOC Says:
    76

    An Ode to Realtards (with apologies to a sixties flower band)

    Where have all the buyers gone?
    Gone in closings all un-done…

    Where have all the closings gone?
    Busted by bankers, every one…

    Why do bankers bust the deals?
    ‘Cos they know the collateral’s just not real…

    Why is the collateral so soft?
    Because all the house prices tend to drop…

    Why do the house prices drop?
    ‘Cos overvalued homes kept piling up…

    Oh when will it ever end…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    painted turtle Says:
    77

    Flipping properties: this realtor did not even bother removing the previous ad.

    old price 658k
    http://www.jodiegraham.com/ActiveListings.php/Details/115#viewdetail

    new price 779K
    http://www.jodiegraham.com/ActiveListings.php/Details/169#viewdetail

    Frankly, it does not look very good :(

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    southseacompany Says:
    78

    Whistler newspaper editorial responds to Maclean’s “Great Canadian real estate crash of 2013″ story:

    “The Crash That Wasn’t ” Pique, Jan 17/03

    http://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/whistler/the-crash-that-wasnt/Content?oid=2447093&showFullText=true

    “My money, and probably some of yours, is betting that MacLean’s is wrong. I guess we’ll know better in 12 months’ time.”

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0

    @ southseacompany
    “The Crash That Wasn’t ” Pique, Jan 17/03

    The guy who wrote this BS mainly reports on sport news.
    I guess his opinion on economics and real estate is very valuable for Whistler community.
    BTW did anybody show him this report saying that Whistler is 30% down since 2010?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    80

    “My money, and probably some of yours, is betting that MacLean’s is wrong.”

    Of course MacLean’s is wrong about Whistler. The crash happened years ago.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0

    SunBlaster Says:
    81

    Had acall from a friend few weeks ago, he bought a brand new house in Coquitlam for $800k even paid HST last year. He was wondering what my heating expenses were. I told him and his were triple the price, he said that $3k mortgage plus heating was killing him. I told him maybe his basement tentats are causing large hydro bills :-)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    82

    #60 /dev/null
    are you just pulling stories like this from your fat arse?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2

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