13,000 listings to kick off 2013. Let’s Party.

According to Paulb the listings odometer just rolled over the 13,000 mark.

As of last night the inventory count hit 13,035.

Of course that means it’s time for a party.

Any one think it’s possible that we might hit 14k before the month end expiries kick in?

Crashcow points out that it could happen:

Avg daily inventory growth this month: 125
Projected month-end inventory: 14,406

Although possible doesn’t mean probably.  Historically sales pick up past the halfway point in January according to VHB:

For the quant-minded, some numbers!

period sell list percent
2011Jan1sthalf 70  216 33%
2011Jan2ndhalf 110 260 42%
2012Jan1sthalf 57  271 21%
2012Jan2ndhalf 90  277 32%
2013Jan1sthalf 54  227 24%

So, if this January follows the pattern we can expect about a 50% increase in sales in the 2nd half of the month. This would mean we should average around 80 sales/day in the 2nd half of Jan2013. Listings might tick up a bit, but not by 50%.

 

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Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

#60 /dev/null
are you just pulling stories like this from your fat arse?

SunBlaster
Guest
SunBlaster

Had acall from a friend few weeks ago, he bought a brand new house in Coquitlam for $800k even paid HST last year. He was wondering what my heating expenses were. I told him and his were triple the price, he said that $3k mortgage plus heating was killing him. I told him maybe his basement tentats are causing large hydro bills 🙂

patriotz
Member

“My money, and probably some of yours, is betting that MacLean’s is wrong.”

Of course MacLean’s is wrong about Whistler. The crash happened years ago.

Aleksey
Guest
Aleksey

@ southseacompany
“The Crash That Wasn’t ” Pique, Jan 17/03

The guy who wrote this BS mainly reports on sport news.
I guess his opinion on economics and real estate is very valuable for Whistler community.
BTW did anybody show him this report saying that Whistler is 30% down since 2010?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Whistler newspaper editorial responds to Maclean’s “Great Canadian real estate crash of 2013” story:

“The Crash That Wasn’t ” Pique, Jan 17/03

http://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/whistler/the-crash-that-wasnt/Content?oid=2447093&showFullText=true

“My money, and probably some of yours, is betting that MacLean’s is wrong. I guess we’ll know better in 12 months’ time.”

painted turtle
Guest
painted turtle

Flipping properties: this realtor did not even bother removing the previous ad.

old price 658k
http://www.jodiegraham.com/ActiveListings.php/Details/115#viewdetail

new price 779K
http://www.jodiegraham.com/ActiveListings.php/Details/169#viewdetail

Frankly, it does not look very good 🙁

Achilles HELOC
Guest
Achilles HELOC

An Ode to Realtards (with apologies to a sixties flower band)

Where have all the buyers gone?
Gone in closings all un-done…

Where have all the closings gone?
Busted by bankers, every one…

Why do bankers bust the deals?
‘Cos they know the collateral’s just not real…

Why is the collateral so soft?
Because all the house prices tend to drop…

Why do the house prices drop?
‘Cos overvalued homes kept piling up…

Oh when will it ever end…

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan

the real estate community has been spinning the stats for six months, hoping things would firm up

we are now up against much more difficult comparative year over year price levels, and will be for a handful of months….it will be difficult (impossible?) to deny that prices are down, say 10%, from where they were a year ago within a month or two

what trick(s) will they pull out of their bag then?

guess – they’ll say, hey, just like the dip in 08/early 09, this is a buying opportunity, before prices resume their upward trajectory

ya, that’s my guess…they gotta try something….

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it

72 Groundhog
What a douche! I’ll bet his calculator is still in the package

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan

I can smell the stench of fear building in the market.

Hope will be lost.

Expect 15% down (simple averages) within 150 days or less.

This is going to get downright interesting.

Like watching a cat on a hot tin roof.

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

Garth posted on this guy tonight:

http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-85852-1044-.htm#85852

What a schmuck

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan

We’ll see 300+ listings day this month.

Mark my words.

Shit is getting bad fast(er) now.

Enjoy.

Ziggy
Guest
Ziggy
I’m not a statistician or mathematician but I came up with the following after reading a report by City Spaces Consulting prepared of the City of Vancouver in 2009. It notes: 1) From the 2009 BCAA database, there were a total of 65,612 strata condominium apartment units in the city, 22,769 which were coded to be investor-owned and 42,843 which were estimated to be owner-occupied — 35.2% of the apartment condominium stock was therefore investor-owned and 64.8% was owner-occupied (Figure 1.2). (Note: this does not include duplexes, townhouses, stratified rental apartments or condominium units in buildings smaller than four units.) 2) BC Hydro account usage data from 2006 and 2007 was used to classify condominium units as “empty” if their electricity usage levels were below a threshold of 100 kilowatts (Kw) of electricity per month. When the use threshold is… Read more »
VHB
Member
VHB
Total days	21
Days elapsed so far	12
Weekends / holidays	5
Days missing	0
Days remaining	9
7 Day Moving Average: Sales	53
7 Day Moving Average: Listings	250
SALES	
Sales so far	659
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	479
Projected month end total	1138
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	2795
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	2248
Projected month end total	5043
Sell-list so far	23.6%
Projected month-end sell-list	22.6%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of Jan 17, 2013	13174
MoI at this sales pace	11.58

Listings now projected over 5000 for month.

Looks like the 2nd half of the month has forgotten to show up so far.

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

So when do 2nd half Jan sales pick-up?

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it

60 dev/null/
if the affair wasn’t bad enough, the shit’s really going to hit when they eventually sell the place for 20% below that offer, in a couple years after chasing the market down

paulb
Member

New Listings 250
Price Changes 63
Sold Listings 52
TI:13174

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

@ManyFranks

Wow, some outrageous comments in that article.

“Where property prices in some areas of Vancouver, West Vancouver, Richmond and Burnaby climbed by as much as 30 per cent last year, prices in the Tri-Cities and New Westminster stayed the course.

We didn’t really have that big increase,” said Love, noting $600,000 to $800,000 will still buy “a really good family home — well kept, basement suite, nice yard, quiet street.””

Amazing that $600,000 – $800,000 is considered an affordable family home. We’re doomed.

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it

59 Many Franks
WTF?? He siad last year prices in Van, W Van, Burnaby and Richmond climbed by as much as 30% last year! Scratch scratch

Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
Guest
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps

“Now the question is when will the gov start raising rates? When boomers start howling about their low rates of return on their GIC’s??”

It won’t be the gov who will start raising rates.

The bond market will crash and rates will spike.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

@BX

“Talked to a commercial banker (One of the big 5) from Abbotsford yesterday. Says everybody he deals with is already underwater on their homes and have no equity left. I asked him if it was because they used their houses as ATMs… Nope, just overpaid and prices are already down 10-20% from the time they bought. They might want to sell, but they would have to bring a cheque to the closing.”

This is what nobody knows … and nobody selling bank stocks wants to hear.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

The Governments meddling in CMHC since 5% down payment was adopted and now keeping rates toooo low really screwed up the younger generation.

Now the question is when will the gov start raising rates? When boomers start howling about their low rates of return on their GIC’s??

/dev/null
Member
/dev/null
A little anecdote to share: a boomer couple (friends of parents) have their house on the market. Typical couple married 35 years, kids grown up etc. But he’s had an affair and admitted it and so they’re headed for divorce. So she moves out to a rental suite and they put the house (North Shore) on the market while he’s still living in it. It’s an old house with lots of problems but they listed it high because it’s the funding for their retirement. After 4 months on the market they get an offer for asking price, but despite her best efforts he turned it down because the sale date was 4 weeks later and he didn’t want to move out that fast. He’s living rent free and so isn’t motivated to move quickly. So, they let the only fish… Read more »
Many Franks
Guest
Active Member
Many Franks
Some wishful thinking as yet another market tries to distance itself from Vancouver. (Funny, they’re usually advertising their convenient proximity.) After a brief lull in business in the latter half of 2012, when properties lingered on the market a little longer than usual and prices stalled, activity is once again starting to pick up. “We’ve noticed, in the month of December, a lot more confidence. We are getting calls for from all different types of buyers who are eager and asking questions about homes we’ve had for sale for six months,” said Love, who’s worked for 20 years primarily in the Tri-Cities for the family-run firm Coldwell Banker Love Realty. That’s surprising, because the REBGV stats say that sales dropped significantly from November to December in the tri-cities. The slow times don’t worry him too much. No, nope. No way.… Read more »
WOWSERS
Guest
WOWSERS

20 K party June everyones invited 20% off to the last of the fools