13,000 listings to kick off 2013. Let’s Party.

According to Paulb the listings odometer just rolled over the 13,000 mark.

As of last night the inventory count hit 13,035.

Of course that means it’s time for a party.

Any one think it’s possible that we might hit 14k before the month end expiries kick in?

Crashcow points out that it could happen:

Avg daily inventory growth this month: 125
Projected month-end inventory: 14,406

Although possible doesn’t mean probably.  Historically sales pick up past the halfway point in January according to VHB:

For the quant-minded, some numbers!

period sell list percent
2011Jan1sthalf 70  216 33%
2011Jan2ndhalf 110 260 42%
2012Jan1sthalf 57  271 21%
2012Jan2ndhalf 90  277 32%
2013Jan1sthalf 54  227 24%

So, if this January follows the pattern we can expect about a 50% increase in sales in the 2nd half of the month. This would mean we should average around 80 sales/day in the 2nd half of Jan2013. Listings might tick up a bit, but not by 50%.

 

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Guest
TPFKAA
3 years 25 days ago

Q: When does a price “soften”?
A: When it’s “frothy and overheated”.

Economics is easy! It’s just like making a souffle!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/due-to-a-steep-sales-drop-vancouvers-home-prices-have-softened/article7398676/

patriotz
Member
3 years 24 days ago

Brings to mind the Lawrence Welk of finance:

Mr. Greenspan emphasized that he sees no sign of a nationwide housing bubble, but he acknowledged concerns over “froth” in the market and pointed to a big increase in speculation in homes – particularly in second homes. As a result, he said, there are “a lot of local bubbles” around the country…

Mr. Greenspan acknowledged on Friday that many people were “reaching” to finance their purchases.

But he predicted that housing prices were unlikely to decline much, if at all.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/21/business/21fed.html?_r=0

Guest
Q
3 years 24 days ago

Property Brothers is casting for its Vancouver edition now: “Property Brothers is looking for couples or families in Vancouver and the Greater Vancouver Area! We want to help you create your dream home! Are you looking to purchase a new home but find that all the perfect properties are beyond your price bracket? Are you resigned to buying a ‘fixer upper’ but daunted by the prospect of a large renovation? Even though you have a budget to renovate, are you in need of expert design and construction help? If you answered Yes to these questions, then Property Brothers is for… Read more »

Guest
Q
3 years 24 days ago

Would-be realtor who purchased realtor course pack in 2010 has decided she does not want to become a real estate agent after all and is selling her realtor course material at a significant discount:

“Purchased course in 2010 and only completed two quizes and then decided not to finish it. Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened….calculator costs $70+ and course was $1000.”

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/pml/bfs/3549235818.html

Guest
BRITTANNY
3 years 24 days ago

Tsunami of listings will start next week. The “new” spring market.There will be “no” ozone when it heats up and scorches MLS.

Guest
pricedoutfornow
3 years 24 days ago

Doug Porter of BMO on CBC radio’s early edition this morning. Says there needs to be some “external event” that would cause a housing crash in BC. But also admits BC (Vancouver) has had some dramatic housing busts and booms. Commented on the current stalemate between buyers and sellers (hey, didn’t this happen in the US right before some people realized they HAD to sell, and dropped their prices dramatically, thus angering those who had little equity?). I would say there are many people in the Vancouver market who will HAVE to sell-those who, for example have bought a second… Read more »

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 24 days ago

…only completed two quizes …

They have quizzes? Wow.

Member
Veej
3 years 24 days ago

Q:

I think this statement applies to most realtors:

“Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened.”

Poor girl… she completed “only” 2 quizzes before she quit? Someone should have told her there was only one more to go!

Guest
RFM
3 years 24 days ago

I have just posted my Thoughts on Pricing Property in a Declining Market.

http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Thoughts-on-Pricing-Property-in-a-Declining-Market

Member
specialfx3000
3 years 24 days ago

Re: #4 “Purchased course in 2010 and only completed two quizes and then decided not to finish it. Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened….calculator costs $70+ and course was $1000.” Now asking $350 Perhaps this is a perfect reflection of what’s to come for local RE:. Her POS speculative investment was made just a couple years ago and now sees a 65% drop in value. The Realtard A$$ociation sure knows how to rip people off. I can’t see Realtors needing to use scientific functions on a calculator. A $70 calculator? They just need to mark up… Read more »

Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
3 years 24 days ago

“Although possible doesn’t mean probably. Historically sales pick up past the halfway point in January according to VHB:”

yes, exactly. POSSIBLE. i’m glad to see other people are starting to see how completely useless VHB’s posts and data are. it’s too bad he doesn’t follow the lead of other quality posters and give some insightful information.

Guest
Many Franks
3 years 24 days ago

Not much detail, but any thoughts on Canadians gobble up foreign debt in November?

The data agency said Canadians bought $6.2 billion worth of foreign debt during the month, the highest level seen since March of 2007. A record $5.7 billion purchase of U.S. government bonds made up most of that.

…and…

On the flip side, foreign appetite for Canadian securities dried up. Foreign investors bought $5.6 billion worth of Canadian stocks and bonds in November, the lowest level seen since July.

Could it be that Canada suddenly isn’t looking like a great place to invest, either domestically or from without?

Member
DonLogan
3 years 24 days ago

Perhaps a calculator that was easier to open would’ve made all the difference. That plastic packaging can be a nightmare.

Dave
Member
3 years 24 days ago

The word on the street is that there are plenty of buyers about. Not many closing on deals, but lots checking things out. I’m less pessimistic now about 2013 than I was a couple months ago. I still see prices drifting downwards, but the apparent demand seems to remain so I doubt we can drop too much. We saw what happened in 2009 when prices took a quick correction.

Member
VHB
3 years 24 days ago

” i’m glad to see other people are starting to see how completely useless VHB’s posts and data are. it’s too bad he doesn’t follow the lead of other quality posters and give some insightful information.”

B B B !’s personal hate-on for me is both revealing and cute. Maybe BBB can explain his hate in more detail, and thus reveal more of his own insecurities and personal issues. Please, BBB, explain for us why I am such a bad person!

😡 (A kiss just for BBB. No one else steal it please!)

VMD
Member
3 years 24 days ago

Cover of Canadian Business Feb 2013 edition: How Low Will House Prices Go? -20% and stay down for years!

Actual article: http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-low-will-house-prices-go/#

Guest
RealityCheck
3 years 24 days ago

#14 Dave,

I agree. People here underestimate the population inflows (stats Can) and other demand. Most Surrey houses have 1-2 basement suites with tenants wanting to buy as soon as 5% is saved up….and for them, the number one concern is monthly carrying costs.

Guest
Yalie
3 years 24 days ago

@Dave:

We saw what happened in 2009 when prices took a quick correction.

Yes, the BoC dropped interest rates from 5% to 1%. I guess that means now they’re going to drop from 1% to -3%.

Guest
Many Franks
3 years 24 days ago

@Reality Check:
Before a potential buyer can fret in earnest about carrying costs, they have to worry about qualification. Qualification got a lot tougher in the months before amorts moved to 25 years (the last shock to carrying costs), and sales turned down with the former, not the latter.

Guest
JB
3 years 24 days ago

What do you want me to say… WOW.

I’m not surprised the sales are where they are. I would love to know how does it feels to be a realtor right now (especially one who wrote about the positive outlook of Canadian real estate market in 2013).

Vancouver RE market will hold, but I fear condo owners will probably jump from the window in one or two years.

Guest
Short'em High
3 years 24 days ago

Many Franks Says: January 17th, 2013 at 9:16 am Not much detail, but any thoughts on Canadians gobble up foreign debt… This chart also shows the outflows since November: http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CADUSD%3DX#symbol=;range=3m This reflects impatience with our own Carey Grant of finance, Mark Carney. Carney’s inaction on the low hanging fruit of excessive consumer and government debt signals sovereign default. There is no point of an independent monetary policy if it simply pegs the playbook to the US Fed. Markets expected the only apolitical entity that could do the job to act in November. Instead they found out that that Carey Grant… Read more »

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 24 days ago

….The word on the street is that there are plenty of buyers about. …

What street would that be? Oh yea, Fantasy Avenue.

Member
3 years 24 days ago

#14, Dave: You say: “I still see prices drifting downwards, but the apparent demand seems to remain so I doubt we can drop too much.” I’m interested in what sort of “drop” you forecast. I’m not an economist, nor am I an edumacated realtor. But my common sense perspective tells me your “drifting downwards” prognostication has ALREADY HAPPENED and a 40 – 50% annihilation is not only possible, but highly likely. There’s nothing – no Chinese invasion, no unbridled mania, no lack of supply (have you seen how much crap is being built these days?), no Cam Good helicopter yellow… Read more »

Guest
Crikey
3 years 24 days ago

@anonymous: “They have quizzes? Wow.” Don’t tell anybody, but I have managed to get my hands on some of the questions. 😉 QUIZ #1, Question 6: “You are with your client at a showing, and are making very good progress on convincing the client to buy. When a fire suddenly breaks out, what do you do? (A) Act casual, lower the sunglasses from your forehead, and extol the virtues of the new heating system (B) Remind the client about the great bbq’s to be had at the property (C) ‘Remember’ that you left your beemer lights on, but insist the… Read more »

Guest
gokou3
3 years 24 days ago

“One of the best moves we ever made was selling in late 2010 for way too much money and becoming…gasp…renters.”

Ya, one of the best moves I ever made was to pick an incompetent realtor to sell my parents’ SFH in summer 2010 who ended up not selling it. Then, in spring 2011, my parents picked another realtor sold it for over-asking and 10% higher than the first listing price. And yes, my parents are renting now, with the interest income from the cash proceeds offsetting most of the rent.

jesse
Member
3 years 24 days ago

“plenty of buyers about”

Orly? A buyer is only a buyer if he buys. Otherwise he’s nothing. Ask a Realtor.

Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
3 years 24 days ago

@VHB

You’ve been wrong for 7 years. Your analysis is useless and provides no insight. All you do is post pretty graphs and gimmicky numbers that have no meaning.

Also, when the market does well you hide only to emerge when it appears that a collapse is imminent. But if that doesn’t happen you’ll run and hide again.

My problem with you isn’t that you started as an amateur, it’s that after 7 long years you haven’t learned anything.

You’re an excel jockey and always will be. Stop pretending to be something more.

Guest
Crikey
3 years 24 days ago

@VHB
You can tell how important the opposing forces consider your work and insights by how much somebody like “Bull! Bull! Bull!” targets you.

If I wear you I would wear Bull’s comments like a badge of honour, and his obvious aggravation would send clear signals to me that I’m doing the right thing.

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 24 days ago

@Jesse

“Orly? A buyer is only a buyer if he buys. Otherwise he’s nothing. Ask a Realtor.”

That was my thoughts. I sometimes look at open houses in the neighbourhood and am always in general looking around at whats for sale. Won’t be buying until at least late 2014 at the earliest though.

Guest
Democrass
3 years 24 days ago

Sorry, Dave, but the government wants lower RE prices. In 2008, the put rates to the floor and opened the mortgage credit flood gates because the government wanted higher prices and they wanted to ignite a borrowing and spending boom. They went too far. Now the governemnt is wants lower prices and lower household debt. The government controls the RE market. It goes up when they want and it goes down when they want. RE spokesmen jabber on about a trigger to make the market fall. The trigger was the government deciding to reduce mortgage debt. If you want higher… Read more »

Member
Absinthe
3 years 24 days ago

@Crikey and @VHB

– Agreed. And, whatever Bull-cubed says, it’s been awesome to have someone calling out the hysteria.

Guest
Democrass
3 years 24 days ago

The toronto real estate board is telling bald faced lies to keep the price momentum going up: Here’s today’s example, courtesy of the cartel running the Toronto real estate market. Reporting their mid-month numbers, TREB said 1,469 properties changed hands in the last two weeks. “This result represented an increase of 2.4 per cent over the 1,435 transactions reported during the same period in 2012.” And as for prices, “The average selling price during the first 14 days of 2013 was by up by four per cent on a year-over-year basis.” What, no softening? Is this truly that elusive soft… Read more »

Guest
Bag it and tag it
3 years 24 days ago

#4 Q
“Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened”
I’d be willing to bet there are a lot of realtors in this city that could make that claim about their calculator.

Guest
Bag it and tag it
3 years 24 days ago

#8 Veej…Damn…you stole my joke! 😉

jesse
Member
3 years 24 days ago

Ad hominem gauge going higher… umad?
We now have validation of the comment hiding system.

Member
Best place on meth
3 years 24 days ago
Guest
Many Franks
3 years 24 days ago

From Banks see more evidence of slowing mortgage growth:

Historically, bull housing markets have tended to end sharply with little warning. But among financial industry players there is growing consensus that this time will be different.

Yep, I’ll bet. Any justification for that antihistorical conclusion? Nope. But what I’m really enjoying is all the soothing, gentle language — cooling, easing, a healthy development that will eliminate the froth. Wait, we’re still talking about Rick Santorum, right?

Guest
asalvari1
3 years 24 days ago

bpom

I was looking for a good deal on those takeovers, and I was shocked, shocked to see how poorly they were done when signing. My overall impression was that they just signed the papers they were given, without even calculating the totals (apparently their calculators are still shrink wrapped).

NO QUESTION they are “how much per month” people, and the careless deals would most likely put them as realtors.

I quickly scanned few of those, and unloading them is going to be B.I.T.C.H. these days.

Guest
TPFKAA
3 years 24 days ago

@ Dave: “The word on the street is that there are plenty of buyers about. Not many closing on deals, but lots checking things out.” I like this. What you report may very well be true. You know what I like best about it? That most people with an interest in buying appear to be “checking things out” and “not closing deals”. I love it. The longer they do that for, the more of them will realise where prices are heading. And the very shiniest tools in the bucket among them may well put two and two together and realise… Read more »

Guest
Ludvig von Mises
3 years 24 days ago

“Orly? A buyer is only a buyer if he buys. Otherwise he’s nothing. Ask a Realtor” Jesse hiding behind semantics. Technically, yes buyer is only a buyer if he buys. But in common parlance “buyer” is also used to refer to people actively looking for a place to buy. Dave is right. There are plenty of “buyers” in that sense. Plenty of people looking but hesitating because they haven’t found what they want and can afford or they are waiting to see if prices come down a bit more. Don’t be a smart aleck. Engage in the discussion.

Guest
Bo Xilai
3 years 24 days ago

Talked to a commercial banker (One of the big 5) from Abbotsford yesterday. Says everybody he deals with is already underwater on their homes and have no equity left. I asked him if it was because they used their houses as ATMs… Nope, just overpaid and prices are already down 10-20% from the time they bought. They might want to sell, but they would have to bring a cheque to the closing.

Guest
gokou3
3 years 24 days ago

Here are the neighbourhood sales results for the last 45 days from December 1, 2012 to January 15, 2013 for single family homes in Richmond, B.C: http://www.shuchatgroup.com/Blog.php/home The entire commentary is fun to read, but I especially like this one: “Sellers often suspend or terminate listings with the hope of renewing them in the new year. This has been especially the case for Richmond where there has been the usual “prayer” for the new wave of Asian immigrants that come to visit with housing plans as the Chinese New Year approaches. ** That plan didn’t work out last year **… Read more »

Guest
Ludvig von Mises
3 years 24 days ago

“And the very shiniest tools in the bucket among them may well put two and two together and realise that if they wait…. and then wait some more…. and wait…. they can save a lot of money. Who doesn’t love a lot of money??” You’re betting on the “waiters” having the patience and nerves to wait and then wait some more. What makes you think that is more likely than people starting to actually buy when prices are down, say, 10 or 15%? My sense is that a lot of people don’t actually believe the market is going to tank… Read more »

Guest
gokou3
3 years 24 days ago

Conversely, You’re betting on the *sellers* having the patience and nerves to wait and then wait some more… and putting off plans for retirement, divorce, moving, downsizing, dying(!), etc.

Guest
Q
3 years 24 days ago

Canadian Business magazine article entitled “How low will house prices to? Prices are headed down for the long term.”

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-low-will-house-prices-go/#

Guest
Q
3 years 24 days ago

“Before every housing correction, there’s a Looney Tunes moment. In the animated universe, there’s a gravitational peculiarity that briefly suspends an overzealous pursuer in mid-air, just long enough to flash a HELP! sign, before plummeting off the cliff he failed to navigate. When it comes to overheated real estate, there is a pause that follows the outset of a correction, during which the market fails to realize there is nothing below but air.”

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-low-will-house-prices-go/#

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 24 days ago

As far as buyers, I know one person that bought yesterday. They just got their first “serious” job and the obvious next step is to buy. They looked for about a month and bought the first one they liked, no negotiation on the ask price. This person doesn’t watch the news, or read newspapers, or have any opinion for that matter on where prices are headed, or did any math on buy vs. rent. It was just a simple, I got a job, now I buy a house. There will always be some buyers in the market, the market isn’t… Read more »

VMD
Member
3 years 24 days ago

@gokou3
we know Dec 2012 Richmond SFH sales = 44
That site quotes 52 SFH sales in Richmond from Dec 1-Jan 15, making Januarary sales ~ 8.

Another source in a RE forum also said:
Richmond SFH sales (Jan 1-16) = 10
Total Richmond SFH Inventory = 753.

If the sales stats are reliable, then at this pace (while considering slightly higher Jan 17-31 sales), Richmond might see Jan/13 SFH sale of 30s with Month-end inventory ~800, making MOI~24. That also means sales @ -60% YoY and -30% MOM Not a very good way to start a Richmond realtor’s year.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 24 days ago

silly bears want party for every RE listing. dont you know how stupid that sounds, silly bears?

jesse
Member
3 years 24 days ago

“Engage in the discussion”

Perhaps Realtors should change their “parlance” to include the following:
lookie-loos
busybodies
tire-kickers
time-wasters
window-shoppers
water-testers
low-ballers

“Buyers” they are not.

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