13,000 listings to kick off 2013. Let’s Party.

According to Paulb the listings odometer just rolled over the 13,000 mark.

As of last night the inventory count hit 13,035.

Of course that means it’s time for a party.

Any one think it’s possible that we might hit 14k before the month end expiries kick in?

Crashcow points out that it could happen:

Avg daily inventory growth this month: 125
Projected month-end inventory: 14,406

Although possible doesn’t mean probably.  Historically sales pick up past the halfway point in January according to VHB:

For the quant-minded, some numbers!

period sell list percent
2011Jan1sthalf 70  216 33%
2011Jan2ndhalf 110 260 42%
2012Jan1sthalf 57  271 21%
2012Jan2ndhalf 90  277 32%
2013Jan1sthalf 54  227 24%

So, if this January follows the pattern we can expect about a 50% increase in sales in the 2nd half of the month. This would mean we should average around 80 sales/day in the 2nd half of Jan2013. Listings might tick up a bit, but not by 50%.

 

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TPFKAA
Guest
TPFKAA

Q: When does a price “soften”?
A: When it’s “frothy and overheated”.

Economics is easy! It’s just like making a souffle!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/due-to-a-steep-sales-drop-vancouvers-home-prices-have-softened/article7398676/

patriotz
Member

Brings to mind the Lawrence Welk of finance:

Mr. Greenspan emphasized that he sees no sign of a nationwide housing bubble, but he acknowledged concerns over “froth” in the market and pointed to a big increase in speculation in homes – particularly in second homes. As a result, he said, there are “a lot of local bubbles” around the country…

Mr. Greenspan acknowledged on Friday that many people were “reaching” to finance their purchases.

But he predicted that housing prices were unlikely to decline much, if at all.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/21/business/21fed.html?_r=0

Q
Guest
Q
Property Brothers is casting for its Vancouver edition now: “Property Brothers is looking for couples or families in Vancouver and the Greater Vancouver Area! We want to help you create your dream home! Are you looking to purchase a new home but find that all the perfect properties are beyond your price bracket? Are you resigned to buying a ‘fixer upper’ but daunted by the prospect of a large renovation? Even though you have a budget to renovate, are you in need of expert design and construction help? If you answered Yes to these questions, then Property Brothers is for you! You must be outgoing, energetic, and fun. You must have your financing in place and be ready to move quickly on the purchase of your new home. You must be looking for a fixer-upper and be enthusiastic about working… Read more »
Q
Guest
Q

Would-be realtor who purchased realtor course pack in 2010 has decided she does not want to become a real estate agent after all and is selling her realtor course material at a significant discount:

“Purchased course in 2010 and only completed two quizes and then decided not to finish it. Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened….calculator costs $70+ and course was $1000.”

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/pml/bfs/3549235818.html

BRITTANNY
Guest
BRITTANNY

Tsunami of listings will start next week. The “new” spring market.There will be “no” ozone when it heats up and scorches MLS.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
Doug Porter of BMO on CBC radio’s early edition this morning. Says there needs to be some “external event” that would cause a housing crash in BC. But also admits BC (Vancouver) has had some dramatic housing busts and booms. Commented on the current stalemate between buyers and sellers (hey, didn’t this happen in the US right before some people realized they HAD to sell, and dropped their prices dramatically, thus angering those who had little equity?). I would say there are many people in the Vancouver market who will HAVE to sell-those who, for example have bought a second property without selling the first, and now are having a hard time finding tenants willing to pay the rent they need to pay the first mortgage. Nah, despite what some economist says, I still think this market’s due for a… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

…only completed two quizes …

They have quizzes? Wow.

Veej
Member
Veej

Q:

I think this statement applies to most realtors:

“Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened.”

Poor girl… she completed “only” 2 quizzes before she quit? Someone should have told her there was only one more to go!

RFM
Guest
RFM

I have just posted my Thoughts on Pricing Property in a Declining Market.

http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Thoughts-on-Pricing-Property-in-a-Declining-Market

specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

Re: #4
“Purchased course in 2010 and only completed two quizes and then decided not to finish it. Calculator is BRAND NEW and still in package never opened….calculator costs $70+ and course was $1000.”

Now asking $350

Perhaps this is a perfect reflection of what’s to come for local RE:.

Her POS speculative investment was made just a couple years ago and now sees a 65% drop in value.

The Realtard A$$ociation sure knows how to rip people off. I can’t see Realtors needing to use scientific functions on a calculator. A $70 calculator?

They just need to mark up a house by X% and subtract by a greater % after accepting a low-ball offer. Wouldn’t a dollar-store calculator that does +,-,X,%, be suffice?

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

“Although possible doesn’t mean probably. Historically sales pick up past the halfway point in January according to VHB:”

yes, exactly. POSSIBLE. i’m glad to see other people are starting to see how completely useless VHB’s posts and data are. it’s too bad he doesn’t follow the lead of other quality posters and give some insightful information.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks

Not much detail, but any thoughts on Canadians gobble up foreign debt in November?

The data agency said Canadians bought $6.2 billion worth of foreign debt during the month, the highest level seen since March of 2007. A record $5.7 billion purchase of U.S. government bonds made up most of that.

…and…

On the flip side, foreign appetite for Canadian securities dried up. Foreign investors bought $5.6 billion worth of Canadian stocks and bonds in November, the lowest level seen since July.

Could it be that Canada suddenly isn’t looking like a great place to invest, either domestically or from without?

DonLogan
Member
DonLogan

Perhaps a calculator that was easier to open would’ve made all the difference. That plastic packaging can be a nightmare.

Dave
Member

The word on the street is that there are plenty of buyers about. Not many closing on deals, but lots checking things out. I’m less pessimistic now about 2013 than I was a couple months ago. I still see prices drifting downwards, but the apparent demand seems to remain so I doubt we can drop too much. We saw what happened in 2009 when prices took a quick correction.

VHB
Member
VHB

” i’m glad to see other people are starting to see how completely useless VHB’s posts and data are. it’s too bad he doesn’t follow the lead of other quality posters and give some insightful information.”

B B B !’s personal hate-on for me is both revealing and cute. Maybe BBB can explain his hate in more detail, and thus reveal more of his own insecurities and personal issues. Please, BBB, explain for us why I am such a bad person!

😡 (A kiss just for BBB. No one else steal it please!)

VMD
Member

Cover of Canadian Business Feb 2013 edition: How Low Will House Prices Go? -20% and stay down for years!

Actual article: http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-low-will-house-prices-go/#

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

#14 Dave,

I agree. People here underestimate the population inflows (stats Can) and other demand. Most Surrey houses have 1-2 basement suites with tenants wanting to buy as soon as 5% is saved up….and for them, the number one concern is monthly carrying costs.

Yalie
Guest
Yalie

@Dave:

We saw what happened in 2009 when prices took a quick correction.

Yes, the BoC dropped interest rates from 5% to 1%. I guess that means now they’re going to drop from 1% to -3%.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks

@Reality Check:
Before a potential buyer can fret in earnest about carrying costs, they have to worry about qualification. Qualification got a lot tougher in the months before amorts moved to 25 years (the last shock to carrying costs), and sales turned down with the former, not the latter.

JB
Guest
JB

What do you want me to say… WOW.

I’m not surprised the sales are where they are. I would love to know how does it feels to be a realtor right now (especially one who wrote about the positive outlook of Canadian real estate market in 2013).

Vancouver RE market will hold, but I fear condo owners will probably jump from the window in one or two years.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

Many Franks Says:
January 17th, 2013 at 9:16 am

Not much detail, but any thoughts on Canadians gobble up foreign debt…

This chart also shows the outflows since November:

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CADUSD%3DX#symbol=;range=3m

This reflects impatience with our own Carey Grant of finance, Mark Carney.

Carney’s inaction on the low hanging fruit of excessive consumer and government debt signals sovereign default. There is no point of an independent monetary policy if it simply pegs the playbook to the US Fed.

Markets expected the only apolitical entity that could do the job to act in November. Instead they found out that that Carey Grant was protecting his prospects of getting more work at a different movie studio in England.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

….The word on the street is that there are plenty of buyers about. …

What street would that be? Oh yea, Fantasy Avenue.

gordholio
Member
#14, Dave: You say: “I still see prices drifting downwards, but the apparent demand seems to remain so I doubt we can drop too much.” I’m interested in what sort of “drop” you forecast. I’m not an economist, nor am I an edumacated realtor. But my common sense perspective tells me your “drifting downwards” prognostication has ALREADY HAPPENED and a 40 – 50% annihilation is not only possible, but highly likely. There’s nothing – no Chinese invasion, no unbridled mania, no lack of supply (have you seen how much crap is being built these days?), no Cam Good helicopter yellow journalism bullsh*t, no freaking money – to keep this pig from plummeting to the depths of hell. Which is precisely where it belongs. Sorry for the aggression. I can’t help myself. Your post is typically vague realtor-esque garbage. “Word on… Read more »
Crikey
Guest
Crikey
@anonymous: “They have quizzes? Wow.” Don’t tell anybody, but I have managed to get my hands on some of the questions. 😉 QUIZ #1, Question 6: “You are with your client at a showing, and are making very good progress on convincing the client to buy. When a fire suddenly breaks out, what do you do? (A) Act casual, lower the sunglasses from your forehead, and extol the virtues of the new heating system (B) Remind the client about the great bbq’s to be had at the property (C) ‘Remember’ that you left your beemer lights on, but insist the client sign for the purchase while you briefly step out (D) Block the exit, and place a purchase contract between the client and the door (E) All of the above” . Way I see it, there is a metaphorical “fire”… Read more »
gokou3
Guest
gokou3

“One of the best moves we ever made was selling in late 2010 for way too much money and becoming…gasp…renters.”

Ya, one of the best moves I ever made was to pick an incompetent realtor to sell my parents’ SFH in summer 2010 who ended up not selling it. Then, in spring 2011, my parents picked another realtor sold it for over-asking and 10% higher than the first listing price. And yes, my parents are renting now, with the interest income from the cash proceeds offsetting most of the rent.

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