14,000 places for sale

Just in time for the month end expiries!

We’ve hit the 14,000 listing mark and we’re still in the first month of the year.

According to VHB if we get 229 or more new listings today we’ll have the 2nd highest number of listings in the last 13 years.

And this is at a time when we have the 3rd lowest sales in the last 13 years.

Read his full comment here to see what the stats looked like for those years.

And enjoy the party.

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Guest
Q
3 years 8 days ago

“A construction-industry conspiracy to inflate the price of building foundations for houses has been operating for nearly 15 years in the Toronto area, Canada’s Competition Bureau maintains in a 120-page search-warrant application obtained by CBC News. The bureau says some of the biggest companies that pour concrete basement foundations for new homes have: Agreed to fix prices. Established agreements not to compete. Attempted to stifle smaller competitors. With more than 330,000 new houses built in the Greater Toronto Area since 1997, the alleged price-fixing could have added hundreds of millions of dollars to the total tab for home construction —… Read more »

Guest
No Noise
3 years 8 days ago

I just left this comment on yesterdays post – thought I would add it here as well: @40 Democrass “..as long as Canada remains one of the world’s richest countries with a generous social wellfare system” Because Canada has brought in so many rich foreign speculators with satellite families who drive RE sky high and pay no income tax yet use our health care and education forcing locals to go into massive debt to compete, Canada wont be a wealthy country with generous welfare system soon – the social system is already crumbling and underwater and after Canada’s RE crash… Read more »

Guest
richmond
3 years 8 days ago

i wonder why richmond has some of the highest childhood poverty rates. sounds like people there don’t pay taxes and appear poor on paper only because of understating incomes.

Guest
Turkey
3 years 8 days ago

There’s an — um, interesting subtext simmering under this story. It’s about Flaherty’s drinking problem skin condition.

Guest
gokou3
3 years 8 days ago

Re #3,

Poverty here is defined as a function of income. A lot of HAMs have enough assets that they don’t need to work at all, and thus the low income.

Guest
Bag it and tag it
3 years 8 days ago

I would not be surprised if there was price fixing in these parts, and not just for foundations. My friend was deciding on whether to reno his West Van house, or build new. He checked around and all the companies quoted the standard price for building new in W.Van: $500 per ft2…which seems totally ridiculous.

Guest
3 years 8 days ago

Very high poverty in the British Properties as well…

jesse
Member
3 years 8 days ago

So how many nK parties in February? I say at least two: 14K (again!!!) and 15K. If we hit 16K I’ll eat my hat ^——

As for February, I have penciled in (REBGV reported) inventory as 14335 and sales of 1891, based on looking at past years’ trends from 2005. That would be an MOI of 7.6. (That’s not good)

Guest
FlipFlop
3 years 8 days ago

@Admin

Why can’t I hide the banner on the left anymore.

This site sucks to read on an ipad (other than that, this site rocks!)

FF

Guest
franco
3 years 8 days ago

post #6

$500 per sq ft IS totally ridiculous.
Don’t know who your friend has talked to, but it’s at least double of what good, honest builders can use and still come up with a profit.
Material is stil reasonably priced, and there is no shortage of cheap labour. With low int rates, builders can afford to have new houses sit on the market while they hope to get their inflated asking prices, but that could soon change.

You ever wonder why new houses in most parts of the US are selling for a quarter our prices when the land value is only half.

Guest
3 years 8 days ago

Jesse, why so low on the Feb month end inventory projection? Last year it was 1500 above January month end which would put it closer to 15,500 if that trend continues with a month end MOI of above 8

Also, just as a note, last year inventory from Jan 31 to Feb 1 only dropped 74 listings so we might still be able to avoid the 13K’s this time around!

Member
space889
3 years 8 days ago

Well there are still tons of over priced SFH in Richmond. I was looking at No 3 Road to Garden City Road around Blundell Road. Most houses are still priced at $1M to $1.5M. There is only 2 or 3 houses asking below $850K which in my view is still over priced. Most of the houses in that area are all build with similar floor plans at around the same time. The two SFH listed below $800K I think have been on the market for quite a few months too. Looks like the sellers aren’t panicking yet. Even a 20%… Read more »

jesse
Member
3 years 8 days ago

Don Cayo: The case for strata ownership of secondary suites
http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/story.html?id=7894503

We’ve already seen some of this. LOLz result when buying basement suites.

jesse
Member
3 years 8 days ago

Observer, While the past two years saw Jan-Feb inventory growth increase considerably, other years, such as 2009 and 2010, saw growth on % basis less. I’ll post my calcs a bit later on.

Guest
first time commenter
3 years 8 days ago

Responding to the comment thread about very wealthy newcomers- I am hearing many commenters share a common opinion: that our immigration system specifically tries to attract very wealthy individuals, but that the net contribution of these individuals once they are here is hard to quantify. This is a delicate topic- it is difficult to separate the process (our immigration rules) from the people (those that choose to immigrate). However, regarding the process, both the federal and the provincial governments have temporarily stopped receiving applications for wealth-based immigration streams, pending review of the programs. Dear readers, here is your chance to… Read more »

Guest
@first time commenter
3 years 8 days ago

not really. it’s a tax issue. the father makes money over seas and pays no canadian tax (illegal). the family lives here claim they have no income. they get free education, healthcare, all kinds of assistance that low income people get for glasses, eye care, dental, whatever.

these people are leaches. no nation in the world would tolerate this. well, except ours.

Guest
MadasHell
3 years 8 days ago

@first time commenter

They are call locust in Hong Kong.

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/02/01/about-that-hong-kong-locust-ad/

Guest
Beuller
3 years 8 days ago

@first time commenter Says:

The best thing to do is gather as much info as you can on the “leeches” and turn them in to CRA and Immigration. I heard that a Richmond “new Canadian family” was reported after the wife who drove a brand new Mercedes SUV to drop her kid off at daycare while she went shopping all day was bragging to all the daycare moms how the gov pays for her daycare because her family had no income in Canada. The other “new Canadian” moms turned her in. I particularly enjoyed hearing that one.

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley
3 years 8 days ago

Can any of you info savvy/privvy folk tell me what the two houses on Ross Rd in NorthVan just sold for and what the asking prices were? They both sold fast (hopefully at deeply discounted prices). The one has about 5 neon “sold” signs on it – they are definitely making a show of it.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 days ago

@first time commenter

“Write to Jason Kenney” —> already did.
“Is it realistic to believe that the flow of international money into Vancouver can (or even should) be stopped? ” —> Can = I believe it is possible to slow it down. Should = Yes! Just look at all the negative consequences, which, long term, outweigh the benefits.

Member
space889
3 years 8 days ago

@MadasHell: you know what? This leeching all started with HKer who immigrated to Van during the HK transfer phase in the early 90s. In fact many still do! There are tons of empty condos bought by these people in the 90s and 2000s that sit empty or rented out for cash with no income being declared. As well, while they spend 6 months or more in HK, collects HK pensions, etc while paying no income tax, they are happily receiving all kinds of government benefits include GST/HST credits, low income assistances, OAS/GIS/etc to the tune of thousands of dollars a… Read more »

patriotz
Member
3 years 8 days ago

” the gov pays for her daycare because her family had no income in Canada. ”

How do you get the government to pay for daycare if neither parent is (on the record) employed?

patriotz
Member
3 years 8 days ago

“The bottom is still a long way away unfortunately.”

Unfortunately for those who buy before it. Not unfortunately for those who wait for it.

Guest
Chabar
3 years 8 days ago

Guess not so many big plasmas and LCDs are buying lately to decorate new condos.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Future+Shop+five+Best+stores+closing/7900657/story.html

kabloona
Member
kabloona
3 years 8 days ago

Chabar, yeah that blows me away….no more Best Buy in Victoria….just that hole-in-the wall BB “Mobile” store at Mayfair Mall. Plus Sears Canada still bleeding jobs, another 700 get the axe…..

Great time to buy a house!! 😉

Guest
@patriotz
3 years 8 days ago

“Unfortunately for those who buy before it. Not unfortunately for those who wait for it.”

do you still think it’s going to be a generation before prices hit bottom?

Member
specialfx3000
3 years 8 days ago

Re: “The best thing to do is gather as much info as you can on the “leeches” and turn them in to CRA and Immigration.” Admittedly I am lazy too Google it and perhaps others feel the same way, but if anyone has links or contacts for reporting such activities, perhaps a new thread would be great for outlining the process to make such a report. Further to reporting “Mercedez-driving astronaunt wives in poverty” or “cash-only/no tax restaurant owners, we could also turn in active grow-ops or landlords that you know don’t report rental incomes. This could be the start… Read more »

patriotz
Member
3 years 8 days ago

“do you still think it’s going to be a generation before prices hit bottom?”

What gives you the idea that I ever thought that?

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 days ago

“How do you get the government to pay for daycare if neither parent is (on the record) employed?”

Please don’t ruin the fantasy by making sense.

paulb
Member
3 years 8 days ago

New Listings 164
Price Changes 69
Sold Listings 58
TI:14126

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Guest
No Noise
3 years 8 days ago

@27 Specialfx3000

Of course! That’s why all those restaurants are cash only – not to save on the VISA fee but to lower their declared income.

@15 first time commenter

Like tax evasion(above), you see it isnt necessarily that foreign wealth that is allowed into Canada plays by Canada’s poor rules – often the wealth comes with its own corrupt methods – which is too often how the wealth gets here in the first place. Doesnt mean Canada cant get wise and pass laws to shut down the nonsense. So yes write Jason Kenney great idea – and vote wisely..

Member
vangrl
3 years 8 days ago

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/01/31/toronto-condo-sales-prices-2012_n_2593404.html

“But Urbanation’s Myers warns prospective buyers not to wait for a price collapse.”

ooooo thanks for the warning Myers

Member
vangrl
3 years 8 days ago

i’m not so sure a quarter of a million dollars for a studio apartment in White Rock is the “best deal of earth”

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reb/3579378361.html

mclovin
Member
mclovin
3 years 8 days ago

Well that caps off a wonderful January for sales.

mclovin
Member
mclovin
3 years 8 days ago

Vangrl:

$249000 / 1br – 508ft² – $100,000.00 Price Reduced!

That’s 29% off. In my opinion that place should be $100K-$150K.

A good start but it just shows how much further our market needs to go.

Member
vangrl
3 years 8 days ago

$349,000 original asking price for a studio in White Rock? idiot realtor

now she’s crying: motivated seller, bring your offer, trades considered blah blah blah… what a joke

Member
Best place on meth
3 years 8 days ago

This just in:

Vancouver’s spring real estate market has been cancelled.

Repeat, the market is closed.

Thanks for coming and drive safely.

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 8 days ago
RaggedyRenter
Member
RaggedyRenter
3 years 8 days ago

@patriotz
“How do you get the government to pay for daycare if neither parent is (on the record) employed?”

The trick is not to report no income. This would probably be too suspicious. The trick is to report minimal income. Something like $15000 working as mid-management back in Asia. That way you get oodles of social assistance from CCTB,UCCB, GST/HST tax credit, and other low income assistance.

jesse
Member
3 years 8 days ago

An observer, my estimates from February are a simple average predictor. I think I did the calculations here a few days ago but here they are again: Reported inventory from Jan-Feb 2005-2012 gained 0.41%/workingday Feb reported sales/workingday were 65% higher than Jan 2005-2012 Reported sales in Jan will be about about 60 sales/workingday. That would mean 99 sales/workingday in February or 99 sales (19 workingdays). Reported inventory will be about 13100. Inventory growth of 0.41%/workingday would produce a total inventory of 14120. I think this method is a decent starting point, and we can then argue why February will be… Read more »

Member
VHB
3 years 8 days ago

Total days 22
Days elapsed so far 22
Weekends / holidays 9
Days missing 0
Days remaining 0
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 77
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 215
SALES
Sales so far 1368
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 0
Projected month end total 1368
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 5083
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 0
Projected month end total 5083
Sell-list so far 26.9%
Projected month-end sell-list 26.9%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of Jan 31, 2013 14126
MoI at this sales pace 10.33

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 days ago

@vangrl
That condo has been listed for about a year now on Craigslist and still no takers. My guess is they saw a yellow helicopter in the neighborhood and ran out to buy the nearest condo.

jesse
Member
3 years 8 days ago

“or 99 sales (19 workingdays)” *1811 sales

Guest
Waiting to exhale
3 years 8 days ago

As a Canadian tax payer all my working life I hate the “locusts” and “leeches” as much as anybody. But I find it troubling with all these statements with racist undertones. I work for a tax collecting agency for over 10 years and I can say without a doubt that the biggest tax cheats of them all are born and raised Canadians. Do you know a waiter/waitress that do not declare all their tips? Do you know anybody that declares their car as a gift when they sell their car? Do you know a self-employed person who declare tax write… Read more »

Guest
Gokou3
3 years 8 days ago

But… $15k barely pays for property tax on their west side sfh! Ok i guess thats why they need go t assistance

Guest
rookie
3 years 7 days ago

5 of 8 best buys are closing in BC. Could someone speculate what that means for this province? Is this related to over debtness of BC residents?

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 7 days ago

@Waiting to exhale:

Waitresses not reporting tips on their income taxes does not come close to having the deleterious social and economic effects of HAM pricing locals out of the real estate market. The fact they leech off the social service system and declare no income just adds insult to injury.

Member
604 Receding Gains
3 years 7 days ago

I was so moved by last night’s Global TV coverage that I prepared a complaint letter (below) to be sent to various regulatory agencies. I think the Global TV “news” people have personal real estate investments and are terrified about losing. If true then they have a massive conflict of interest and that would explain their editorial stuff. That takes them offside with a few different regulatory agencies. Hey Bears, join me in firing off this rocket to the agencies (emails below). Let’s light a fire under Global TV. It’s payback time. Dear Sir/Madame: We all remember the false and… Read more »

Guest
frank
3 years 7 days ago

Very true- waiting to exhale- I know many fellow Canucks who have been life-long recipients of welfare, subsidized housing etc in fact multigenerational. Much as we are upset the Wealthy Chinese for buying homes, the influx of money allows a lot of locals to live the life of riley.

Guest
@patriotz
3 years 7 days ago

Oh, sorry. I misread your comment (see below). Well, patriotz it’s 3 years after the 2010 olympics and the market hasn’t bottomed. In fact the peak was only 7 months ago.

You suck at predictions :)

patriotz Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
As someone else noted, the bottom will not come until after the 2010 Olympics, when the last dregs of bullishness are exhausted.Then see several years of flat nominal prices. When real prices return to 2001 levels, we will probably see appreciation return to the historical trend. No bubble like this for another generation (1981->2006->2031).

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