2012 Tax Assessments now available

An Observer points out that the most recent property tax assessment values are now available on the BC Assesment website:

If you’re curious about the assessed value of your property, your neighbors property or that cute little tear-down you’ve got your eye on you can find it here for the next couple of months:

http://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/

Property values are assessed in July, so these assessments represent the tax market value at that time.

Since prices have been falling in Vancouver since last summer we’re at an interesting stage of the market cycle – basically most property that’s selling right now is selling for ‘less than assessed value’ so watch for that phrase to pop up a lot in new listings.

Another point to keep in mind since it always seems to pop up in discussion of property tax: In Vancouver taxes are based on a balance across properties.  This means that just because house prices go up, that doesn’t mean tax income goes up.

The only important thing is your homes value in comparison to neighbouring homes – the total tax load is split up between all homes, so if all home prices drop by 20% across the board all tax bills will remain the same (unless the city decides they need to bring in more tax money).

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Guest
Name taken
3 years 1 month ago

Trying to talk sense into those assessment clowns is useless. They arbitrarily filter out stuff that does not fit their desires. Like for example dismissing sales that were done under pressure by the court. I wonder what will they say when the market gets flooded with sales that are forced- how will they dismiss those sales as not part of the market then?

patriotz
Member
3 years 1 month ago

Early risers can catch Phil Sopor of Royal LePage on Canada AM 7:15 local time. He gives the standard “soft landing” pitch where he admits that prices have been outpacing incomes but claims that prices will stay flat and incomes will catch up. But he makes an exception for – you guessed it – BC Lower Mainland. Even the shills are giving up on the BPOE.

patriotz
Member
3 years 1 month ago
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

Yesterday, there was a discussion here about an observation of a large number of vacancies in the West End. SDR and data junkie both scoffed at the idea that people who might potentially rent in the West End are instead opting to rent (or perhaps buy) in other parts of Metro Vancouver, as far as an hour outside of the downtown core. SDR said: “i don’t buy that move “one hour away” either. tough to picture somebody trading West-End lifestyle with one in Aldergrove. The people who lived in West End are more likely to move to Montreal, Toronto even… Read more »

patriotz
Member
3 years 1 month ago

A bubble is when prices are out of proportion to rents and that is the topic of this blog. Rents are higher in some locations because renters (i.e. the demand side of the rental market) have decided that the amenities of those locations are worth it. Rental vacancies indicate that the owners are asking above market rents – whether they be in the West End or anywhere else. That’s all. Rents are just a matter of consumer preferences. Someone who is willing to pay a higher rent to live in West End is not “obsessed” with anything, just expressing a… Read more »

Guest
Name taken
3 years 1 month ago

@patriotz:
“A bubble is when prices are out of proportion to rents and that is the topic of this blog.”

Why are you so narrow minded? There is a clear bubble in West End rents as I pointed out yesterday. Rents are out of proportion to income of West End residents. Rents are going to go down in that area. Probably not only West End, but West End is the only one I can comment on because I am not familiar with rents in other areas.

Guest
Name taken
3 years 1 month ago

Anonymous #4, people who don’t have a car don’t see anything around them and have no concept of what live is like just one hour drive away. I know this first hand as I lived in West End without a car for many years and I spent more time in Europe and USA than in all of BC outside of downtown Vancouver. Reality is that anybody who thinks Vancouver is nice and special is delusional. It is an ok place with its fair share of problems.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@Patriotz: You are missing the entire point of my post (#5). You’re like the RE bubble text book sometimes, regurgitating definitions. I am not talking about renting versus owning and I know what a real estate bubble is, thank you very much. When I said people are “obsessed” with living downtown or in the C of V, I was talking about renters and homeowners alike. The obsession I am talking about is that people (renters and owners alike) think that the price premium on the West End is worth it relative to places like New West, that are an hour… Read more »

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

One more thing about renting in New West vs the West End. New West is closer to my job than the West End is. I know a lot of people who live and work in New West. As I just discussed, there is a price premium on renting and buying downtown. The price premium for living downtown is supposed to reflect the convenience of living in a more centralized location–close to jobs, shopping, amenities, friends. Well I have all of that right here in New West. If I lived in the West End I would have a longer commute to… Read more »

patriotz
Member
3 years 1 month ago

anon: “The obsession I am talking about is that people (renters and owners alike) think that the price premium on the West End is worth it relative to places like New West, that are an hour away.” It’s not an “obsession”. People who are willing to pay more to live in the West End don’t have anything wrong with them, they just have different preferences than you. name taken: “There is a clear bubble in West End rents as I pointed out yesterday” You cannot have a bubble in rents because the use of rental accommodation can’t be resold. That’s… Read more »

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
3 years 1 month ago

CBC News: Vancouver’s hottest property values dip in 2012

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/01/02/bc-property-assessments.html

With video. Realtors claiming the new low prices will ‘definitely’ mean more first time buyers coming out in the spring.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@Patriotz: “It’s not an “obsession”. People who are willing to pay more to live in the West End don’t have anything wrong with them, they just have different preferences than you.” So you’re arguing semantics with me now! Can’t you see the larger points I am making? I am taking time out of my morning to write something very interesting that deals with issues of urban geography, economic geography, cultural preferences, etc. There’s a great deal to reflect on in what I wrote and to disagree or agree with some of the larger points I made. And you choose to… Read more »

Guest
Jacob
3 years 1 month ago

Anonymous/Name taken: “I am a big ideas person and a very smart person”

Yup, we can see that. it takes you just 20 posts to explain that you moved to New West from West end and that you like there. Ok. We got it.

Clockbike
Member
Clockbike
3 years 1 month ago

#4 Anonymous
As one of those upvoters from yesterday, let me explain myself by saying I endorsed that comment as a hater of economic dislocation. Regardless if you’re moving from West Van to Aldergrove or vice-versa. When people who grow up in a community have to move from that community, I take issue.

However, I’m not going to make some grand claim that prices should be controlled to allow people to live in their community. Because that’s how we got into this problem to begin with.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@Jacob: Just to be clear, I am not the same person as ‘Name taken’. I am the anonymous poster who has been writing comments on the West End vs. New West and I am not the same person as ‘Name taken’. In fact, I disagreed with a great deal of what Name taken wrote last night about how the private sector does everything better than the government. I agreed with just about everything Patriotz wrote last night in that debate over private sector vs government and their roles in education, health care, liquor distribution. One of the things I like… Read more »

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@Jacob: “Yup, we can see that. it takes you just 20 posts to explain that you moved to New West from West end and that you like there. Ok. We got it.” There is a subtext in that that is almost a personal attack. I did not take 20 posts to explain my choice to live in New West. This all started from my post yesterday morning about going for a walk downtown and observing lots of vacancies in the West End. Again, I am writing about larger issues, trends in the economy and settlement patterns of the Lower Mainland.… Read more »

Guest
No Noise
3 years 1 month ago

It looks like Immigration Canada is ranking in-demand skills/training as more important than big $$$ for new immigrants now:

“In a year-end interview, Immigration Minister Jason Kenney described the coming Web-based “Expression of Interest” system – to be in place by 2014 – as the culmination of more than five years of reform. It will be an invitation-only route for economic immigrants where prospective arrivals advertise their skills and qualifications on a Canadian government database that will be perused by employers looking to hire more than just temporary workers”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/kenney-sees-new-immigration-system-as-way-to-attract-skilled-workers/article6840232/

Member
Patiently Waiting
3 years 1 month ago

Its interesting how often New West gets discussed here. That alone tells you it is rising in importance. I hope this rising importance doesn’t result in rising rents. It has a lot of services for vulnerable populations who form communities there thanks to relatively affordable housing. I agree it is a diverse, tolerant community similar in some ways to the old West End. It just seems a little more interesting than the soul-less suburban sprawl surrounding it on all sides. So far its not going upscale. Don’t bother trying to find fine dining. They can’t do better than the crappy… Read more »

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

@Patiently Waiting: Thank you for writing something that deals with the substantive issues I was writing. I can’t believe how much grief I’ve been getting on this blog. You’d think someone on a Vancouver real estate bear blog would get more positive reaction for arguing why real estate prices (and yes rents too) in Downtown Vancouver are too high. You said: “As for the West End, a generation of tenants is going to the great rental building the sky. Boomers aren’t replacing them because of their obsession with home ownership. While not in a bubble, I predict rents will go… Read more »

VMD
Member
3 years 1 month ago

FP: OSFI guidelines needs work Jan 2, 2013 “OSFI not transparent on revisions to corporate-governance rules” – “Just as undue complexity in managerial structure undermines organizational capital, so too does a lack of critical thinking capacity on the part of too many senior executives and board members to fully understand and effectively address the complexity of the global financial system in which their institutions participate. ” – “Nor do the draft revisions focus on the metrics and incentive systems that continue to encourage contributions to short-term performance, rather than the long-term health of an institution (or the sector)” -“OFSI’s decision… Read more »

Member
vangrl
3 years 1 month ago

BREAKING NEWS BNN:

“VANCOUVER HOME SALES PLUMMET 31% in DECEMBER FROM YEAR AGO”

VMD
Member
3 years 1 month ago
Guest
painted turtle
3 years 1 month ago
Guest
Neil
3 years 1 month ago

Re West End vacancies. Just got an email from a old friend that used to run a IT school in Vancouver. Most of his students were from overseas, mainly Japan. He had to close the school because it dried the intake from Asian countries. He said most of students returned home and no new ones arrived because of economic crises. Most of these students were living in downtown core. He himself moved to Japan as well because could not find a job here. So he is teaching English in Tokyo. I believe there is more people moving out of Vancouver/Province… Read more »

Guest
painted turtle
3 years 1 month ago

@anonymous
May I suggest that
1) You see the value of concision, especially on a blog.
2) You find yourself a name to avoid confusion.

Guest
Name taken
3 years 1 month ago

Jacob, your post #13 attributes to me a quote that I have nothing to do with. I did not claim to be a smart person, just that you are confused on certain topics, which you continue to prove with that post.

Guest
Name taken
3 years 1 month ago

@patriotz:

“You cannot have a bubble in rents because the use of rental accommodation can’t be resold. That’s the case for any service that is used and paid for in real time. A bubble means the market is being driven by speculative expectations.”

Yes you can have bubbles with stuff that you cannot resell. Bubbles are any kind of unsustainable deal making driven by emotion. Your “speculative expectations” is just one example of such emotion. There are other emotions that humans experience and some of those can drive bubbles too.

Guest
Domocrass
3 years 1 month ago

Patrioz said “You cannot have a bubble in rents because the use of rental accommodation can’t be resold. That’s the case for any service that is used and paid for in real time. A bubble means the market is being driven by speculative expectations.”

Is this always true? Can’t you have an education bubble where tuition prices are driven higher by the availability of credit (backed or promoted by government programs)to finance education?

Credit financing of services can drive the price of the service higher and create a bubble, no?

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

In peace with all, I just want to say one more thing about the New West vs West End debate before I go out and enjoy the sunshine in New West. You guys are quantitative thinkers who love statistics, right? I know a little bit about spatial statistics–statistical analysis of spatial/geographic patterns. Just like in regular descriptive statistics, in spatial statistics we have spatial measures of central tendency: mean centre, median centre, mode centre, weighted mean centre. These measures all look at average location of geographic phenomena, calculated from x,y (or also Z if 3D/topographical statistics) coordinates of observations/cases in… Read more »

jesse
Member
3 years 1 month ago

1142 sales in December. I guessed 1159. Sorry guys.

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 1 month ago

http://www.rebgv.org/news-statistics/prices-hold-firm-home-buyers-and-sellers-conclude-2012-sidelines

“Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price of a detached property has declined 6.5%”

“Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price of an apartment property has declined 12.8%.”

“Since reaching a peak in April, the benchmark price of an attached property has declined 4.4%.”

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 1 month ago

@Groundhog, your forgot to copy Klein’s comment about those price decline:

“We saw home prices come down a bit during the latter half of the year. During the same period, we saw fewer home sales and listings,”

On an annual basis, the declines since May have been:
– detached: 11.1%
– apartment: 21.9%
– attached: 7.5%

I can’t wait to see what “moderate” decline means to him…

Member
vangrl
3 years 1 month ago

Rob Carrick on his facebook page “Are you prepared for housing prices to fall hard and take years to recover? It’s happened before.” pissed off commenters Mark the mortgage broker- ” I thought we already did this story, no wait that was the Mayans and the end of the world.” Kathi- “As a real estate investor it drives me crazy when articles generalize the Canadian real estate market with such a broad brush. I see I haven’t missed anything by not getting the online subscription to the G&M. Yes there are markets that are way over priced – Vancouver and… Read more »

Member
Best place on meth
3 years 1 month ago

“Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price of an apartment property has declined 12.8%.”

Something looks odd about this one.

I think it may be a typo.

Member
VHB
3 years 1 month ago

Big Q is whether we see a steep incline in total listings this January like we did in Jan/2012. There are three types of sellers 1) acyclical need-to-sells: death, divorce, job transfer. These people need to sell fairly quickly. These are the ones who will drip drip drip the prices slowly down as they set the new market price. There is a constant flow of them–not enough to crash the market, but they provide gentle downward pressure as they take what they can get and they go. 2) cyclical need-to-sells: unemployment or interest rates make their current mortgage unpayable. They… Read more »

Member
skippa_azza
3 years 1 month ago

@vangrl
Delusional buyers and sales people. They are still blinded by greed and irrational optimism. The market is in a slippery slope going into 2013 and I hope Jimbo will not make an about turn if the rate of decline accelerates.

Guest
random321
3 years 1 month ago

REBGV: “Prices hold firm as home buyers and sellers conclude 2012
from the sidelines”

And then continues to report a 1% MoM drop in benchmark price. Since when is 12% annualized drop in prices considered holding firm?

Unlike many on this board, I don’t normally find the REBGV stats package blurb to be too offensive, but they’ve kind of crossed that line this time.

Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode
3 years 1 month ago

REBGV: “Prices hold firm as home buyers and sellers conclude 2012
from the sidelines”

Which agency to complain to about REBGV’s misleading the public? And Global TV, CBC, etc.

RaggedyRenter
Member
RaggedyRenter
3 years 1 month ago

I don’t see Burnaby/New West much less Surrey emerging to become the economic powerhouse succeeding Downtown in the near future. Most of the good jobs and economic activity are still in the downtown area. All that’s left in the burb are municipal jobs, declining manufacturing/warehouse jobs and service based jobs. Who knows, maybe New West will someday become the second Yaletown. I think Realtors will be our friend in the downturn. As the number of sales go down, they will force clients to list their properties at a reasonable going rate, thus chasing the market down. Why would you waste… Read more »

jesse
Member
3 years 1 month ago

@VHB, I agree listings growth is the big leading indicator to watch in the coming months. Some food for thought on listings growth:
As mortgage term renewals come due in 2013 lenders are now requiring more solid proof of income and will be derating assessments. That means the 2013 term renewal vintage will be under additional scrutiny. Many may need to sell because the “official” income simply isn’t there.

Maybe 2013 will see lower listings like 2009. Who knows. But the credit conditions, at least, are not moving my chi magnet in an auspicious direction.

Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 1 month ago

@ VHB I like the way you look at the market in post 35. However, I think you are forgetting a very big need-to-sell segment which is developers. The big guys have bought land and built a tower that needs to sell units for a certain price to break even. A lot of the money they used to build the tower was borrowed. They may be able to pretend for a while … but if you have a January completion that is unsold by May, the bankers are going to be agitating to get their money back (particularly because the… Read more »

Guest
gokou3
3 years 1 month ago

“Most of the good jobs and economic activity are still in the downtown area. All that’s left in the burb are municipal jobs, declining manufacturing/warehouse jobs and service based jobs”

Disagree. I think % wise, the suburbs have similar % good-quality jobs as in downtown. EA in burnaby and Microsoft (plus other tech companies) in richmond comes to mind.

It’s true downtown has the regional headquarters of the oligopolies (banks, utilities, etc) but it also has a large number of retail / service jobs and according to various anecdotes they are suffering.

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 1 month ago

@VHB Anecdotaly, I heard quite a few of your type 1 sellers over the holidays. A few job transfers, a divorce, a need to move from a condo to something larger. I am not sure if I am just more in tune right now to listening for people planning to sell their houses in the spring or if there actually are more people then usual. It seems to me there are more people then usual. One has already tried listing and then delisted in 2012, and a the rest will be new listings. At least one will need to sell… Read more »

Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 1 month ago

BTW, I’m not entirely clear on the following point, but I have a feeling that new inventory doesn’t show up in our official inventory count here. Could someone enlighten me on how the number of for sale new units is counted?

VMD
Member
3 years 1 month ago

2012 VCI RE Prediction Contest Final Score
OVERALL SCORE:
#1: Jesse: 39 pts
#2: The Ant: 26 pts
#3: Absinthe:13 pts

CONGRATS JESSE! WINNER OF THE 2012 VCI PREDICTION CONTEST!
http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-2012-VCI-RE-Prediction-Contest-Final-Score?pid=106#pid106

VMD
Member
3 years 1 month ago

Jesse has kindly agreed to organize the 2013 VCI prediction contest.
Stay tuned for prediction categories and contest rules!

jesse
Member
3 years 1 month ago

I won, as it happens, by being the most bullish out of all participants. We all estimated drops too severe, though The Ant nailed the GVHPI to within 0.5%. Well done for sheer accuracy!

Member
vangrl
3 years 1 month ago

Muir on BNN

-not concerned
-consumers are “wait and see” which is reason for slowdown not fundamentals
-doesn’t see any panic selling
-pullback in demand met with pullback in listings

lots of bubble talk on BNN today!

Guest
data junkie
3 years 1 month ago

My opinion of Cameron Muir can best be summarized by the famous General Tommy Franks quote on the subject of Doug Feith.

VMD
Member
3 years 1 month ago

Whistler Condos Dec/12 HPI:
3-mo-change: -6.7%
6-mo-change: -11.7%
1-yr-change: -9.9%
3-yr-change: -32.4%
5-yr-change: -39.1%

ouch.

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