2012 Tax Assessments now available

An Observer points out that the most recent property tax assessment values are now available on the BC Assesment website:

If you’re curious about the assessed value of your property, your neighbors property or that cute little tear-down you’ve got your eye on you can find it here for the next couple of months:

http://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/

Property values are assessed in July, so these assessments represent the tax market value at that time.

Since prices have been falling in Vancouver since last summer we’re at an interesting stage of the market cycle – basically most property that’s selling right now is selling for ‘less than assessed value’ so watch for that phrase to pop up a lot in new listings.

Another point to keep in mind since it always seems to pop up in discussion of property tax: In Vancouver taxes are based on a balance across properties.  This means that just because house prices go up, that doesn’t mean tax income goes up.

The only important thing is your homes value in comparison to neighbouring homes – the total tax load is split up between all homes, so if all home prices drop by 20% across the board all tax bills will remain the same (unless the city decides they need to bring in more tax money).

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Name taken

Jacob, your post #13 attributes to me a quote that I have nothing to do with. I did not claim to be a smart person, just that you are confused on certain topics, which you continue to prove with that post.

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@patriotz:

“You cannot have a bubble in rents because the use of rental accommodation can’t be resold. That’s the case for any service that is used and paid for in real time. A bubble means the market is being driven by speculative expectations.”

Yes you can have bubbles with stuff that you cannot resell. Bubbles are any kind of unsustainable deal making driven by emotion. Your “speculative expectations” is just one example of such emotion. There are other emotions that humans experience and some of those can drive bubbles too.

Domocrass
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Domocrass

Patrioz said “You cannot have a bubble in rents because the use of rental accommodation can’t be resold. That’s the case for any service that is used and paid for in real time. A bubble means the market is being driven by speculative expectations.”

Is this always true? Can’t you have an education bubble where tuition prices are driven higher by the availability of credit (backed or promoted by government programs)to finance education?

Credit financing of services can drive the price of the service higher and create a bubble, no?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
In peace with all, I just want to say one more thing about the New West vs West End debate before I go out and enjoy the sunshine in New West. You guys are quantitative thinkers who love statistics, right? I know a little bit about spatial statistics–statistical analysis of spatial/geographic patterns. Just like in regular descriptive statistics, in spatial statistics we have spatial measures of central tendency: mean centre, median centre, mode centre, weighted mean centre. These measures all look at average location of geographic phenomena, calculated from x,y (or also Z if 3D/topographical statistics) coordinates of observations/cases in a data set. If we want to look at the spatial distribution of the population of Metro Vancouver, we can look at the weighted mean centre of the population. The weighted mean centre is the ‘centre of gravity’ of the… Read more »
jesse
Member

1142 sales in December. I guessed 1159. Sorry guys.

Groundhog
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Groundhog

http://www.rebgv.org/news-statistics/prices-hold-firm-home-buyers-and-sellers-conclude-2012-sidelines

“Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price of a detached property has declined 6.5%”

“Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price of an apartment property has declined 12.8%.”

“Since reaching a peak in April, the benchmark price of an attached property has declined 4.4%.”

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Groundhog, your forgot to copy Klein’s comment about those price decline:

“We saw home prices come down a bit during the latter half of the year. During the same period, we saw fewer home sales and listings,”

On an annual basis, the declines since May have been:
– detached: 11.1%
– apartment: 21.9%
– attached: 7.5%

I can’t wait to see what “moderate” decline means to him…

vangrl
Member
vangrl
Rob Carrick on his facebook page “Are you prepared for housing prices to fall hard and take years to recover? It’s happened before.” pissed off commenters Mark the mortgage broker- ” I thought we already did this story, no wait that was the Mayans and the end of the world.” Kathi- “As a real estate investor it drives me crazy when articles generalize the Canadian real estate market with such a broad brush. I see I haven’t missed anything by not getting the online subscription to the G&M. Yes there are markets that are way over priced – Vancouver and Toronto for example, nothing new there. I do my research and invest based on economic fundamentals. I’m not worried at all, the sky is NOT falling.” Ben- “Your tireless negativity has me unfriending you today Rob Carrick.” Brian- “When enormous… Read more »
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price of an apartment property has declined 12.8%.”

Something looks odd about this one.

I think it may be a typo.

VHB
Member
VHB
Big Q is whether we see a steep incline in total listings this January like we did in Jan/2012. There are three types of sellers 1) acyclical need-to-sells: death, divorce, job transfer. These people need to sell fairly quickly. These are the ones who will drip drip drip the prices slowly down as they set the new market price. There is a constant flow of them–not enough to crash the market, but they provide gentle downward pressure as they take what they can get and they go. 2) cyclical need-to-sells: unemployment or interest rates make their current mortgage unpayable. They need to sell or they get foreclosed on. I see no evidence this group is growing or will grow in the first half of 2013. When/if this group swells, that’s when you start seeing crashy kind of numbers. They need… Read more »
skippa_azza
Member
skippa_azza

@vangrl
Delusional buyers and sales people. They are still blinded by greed and irrational optimism. The market is in a slippery slope going into 2013 and I hope Jimbo will not make an about turn if the rate of decline accelerates.

random321
Guest
random321

REBGV: “Prices hold firm as home buyers and sellers conclude 2012
from the sidelines”

And then continues to report a 1% MoM drop in benchmark price. Since when is 12% annualized drop in prices considered holding firm?

Unlike many on this board, I don’t normally find the REBGV stats package blurb to be too offensive, but they’ve kind of crossed that line this time.

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

REBGV: “Prices hold firm as home buyers and sellers conclude 2012
from the sidelines”

Which agency to complain to about REBGV’s misleading the public? And Global TV, CBC, etc.

RaggedyRenter
Member
RaggedyRenter

I don’t see Burnaby/New West much less Surrey emerging to become the economic powerhouse succeeding Downtown in the near future. Most of the good jobs and economic activity are still in the downtown area.
All that’s left in the burb are municipal jobs, declining manufacturing/warehouse jobs and service based jobs. Who knows, maybe New West will someday become the second Yaletown.

I think Realtors will be our friend in the downturn. As the number of sales go down, they will force clients to list their properties at a reasonable going rate, thus chasing the market down.
Why would you waste your time and effort listing a house for a million when you know nearby houses are listing for 800 and selling for 750.

jesse
Member

@VHB, I agree listings growth is the big leading indicator to watch in the coming months. Some food for thought on listings growth:
As mortgage term renewals come due in 2013 lenders are now requiring more solid proof of income and will be derating assessments. That means the 2013 term renewal vintage will be under additional scrutiny. Many may need to sell because the “official” income simply isn’t there.

Maybe 2013 will see lower listings like 2009. Who knows. But the credit conditions, at least, are not moving my chi magnet in an auspicious direction.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
@ VHB I like the way you look at the market in post 35. However, I think you are forgetting a very big need-to-sell segment which is developers. The big guys have bought land and built a tower that needs to sell units for a certain price to break even. A lot of the money they used to build the tower was borrowed. They may be able to pretend for a while … but if you have a January completion that is unsold by May, the bankers are going to be agitating to get their money back (particularly because the goofy CMHC actually insures these developer loans, so if they don’t get everything, they can still claim). I think new housing is going to get dumped onto the market in 2013 in a way that depresses the comparable valuation of… Read more »
gokou3
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gokou3

“Most of the good jobs and economic activity are still in the downtown area. All that’s left in the burb are municipal jobs, declining manufacturing/warehouse jobs and service based jobs”

Disagree. I think % wise, the suburbs have similar % good-quality jobs as in downtown. EA in burnaby and Microsoft (plus other tech companies) in richmond comes to mind.

It’s true downtown has the regional headquarters of the oligopolies (banks, utilities, etc) but it also has a large number of retail / service jobs and according to various anecdotes they are suffering.

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

@VHB

Anecdotaly, I heard quite a few of your type 1 sellers over the holidays. A few job transfers, a divorce, a need to move from a condo to something larger.

I am not sure if I am just more in tune right now to listening for people planning to sell their houses in the spring or if there actually are more people then usual. It seems to me there are more people then usual. One has already tried listing and then delisted in 2012, and a the rest will be new listings. At least one will need to sell quickly as they are looking to buy a house in the US due to a job transfer there, and don’t want to hold 2 houses.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

BTW, I’m not entirely clear on the following point, but I have a feeling that new inventory doesn’t show up in our official inventory count here. Could someone enlighten me on how the number of for sale new units is counted?

VMD
Member

2012 VCI RE Prediction Contest Final Score
OVERALL SCORE:
#1: Jesse: 39 pts
#2: The Ant: 26 pts
#3: Absinthe:13 pts

CONGRATS JESSE! WINNER OF THE 2012 VCI PREDICTION CONTEST!
http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-2012-VCI-RE-Prediction-Contest-Final-Score?pid=106#pid106

VMD
Member

Jesse has kindly agreed to organize the 2013 VCI prediction contest.
Stay tuned for prediction categories and contest rules!

jesse
Member

I won, as it happens, by being the most bullish out of all participants. We all estimated drops too severe, though The Ant nailed the GVHPI to within 0.5%. Well done for sheer accuracy!

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Muir on BNN

-not concerned
-consumers are “wait and see” which is reason for slowdown not fundamentals
-doesn’t see any panic selling
-pullback in demand met with pullback in listings

lots of bubble talk on BNN today!

data junkie
Guest
data junkie

My opinion of Cameron Muir can best be summarized by the famous General Tommy Franks quote on the subject of Doug Feith.

VMD
Member

Whistler Condos Dec/12 HPI:

3-mo-change: -6.7%
6-mo-change: -11.7%
1-yr-change: -9.9%
3-yr-change: -32.4%
5-yr-change: -39.1%

ouch.