31% of apartments for sale are vacant

This is kind of amazing.

yvr2zrh posted this analysis of the percentage of property listings for sale that are vacant:

Across REBGV 19% of listed SFH are vacant and 31% of attached/apartments are vacant. So – 50% as the comment from Jesse is higher than actual but not completely out of reach for apartments. Some variations are noted.

SFH Vacant stats (number/%)(in order or highest to lowest)
Richmond 175 – 24%
Van West 148 – 23%
North Van 55 – 21%
Port Coq – 22 – 21%
Whistler – 39 – 21%
Van East – 87 – 20%
Burnaby – 71 – 20%
etc . . .

For Apartment/Attached, the following are the vacant properties
Whistler – 177 (42%)
Maple Ridge – 94 (34%)
Van West – 522 (34%)
New West 110 (33%)
Van East – 169 (33%)
Burnaby – 261 (31%)
Richmond – 298 (31%)
North Van – 115 (30%)


So, even if you have people who just want to hold back, why would they when there is cash outflows to carry the property and the future outlook is for price decreases?

Those who just hold off selling, where they are actually living in the unit, and are waiting for prices to increase, are bound to die living in that unit.

Later today, I will post my predictions for the 2013 market based on my model. What is really helpful is the MOI/monthly price change graph. That has been a really good indicator of price movements. Thus, I will post the projected MOI movements for 2013 and then we can see where the prices fall. It is important to know that listing volumes are down from last year. This is sufficiently so that we may see 2013 inventory intersect the 2012 inventory possibly at the end of the Spring and then track 2012 for the rest of the year.

This will be interesting to watch because once we are down 10-15% from peak prices – how can they continue to say things like prices are flat and this is a soft landing? I would say any decrease of 20% from the peak is not good as you immediately remove even more move-up buyers and put 1000′s of people underwater immediately.

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Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

….west-side-vancouver-sellers-holding-out-for-deep-pocketed-buyers….

I say: let em hold out! See ya, wouldn’t want to be ya!

trackback

[…] As of last night the inventory count hit 13,035. […]

jesse
Member

“I am certain, without empirical evidence, that a smoothing of average sales is a leading indicator of the sales pair based index.”

fing QUAL 😉

YLTNboomerang
Member

National media is really starting change tone:

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/flaherty-will-face-heat-if-home-prices-cool/article7446934/?service=mobile

It starts off sounding like a Flaherty witch hunt but then basically spells out that he’s just undoing the loosening previously done and the inflated market needs it.

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

@Anonymous #74

US & Norway since 1890
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2012/el2012-19.html

Inflation would be CPI for the last couple decades, not sure about prior to that.

I’ve also seen Australia has grown with inflation since the 1870’s

YLTNboomerang
Member

You know too many Canadians are home owners when the story leads with the fact that a concierge was a must have for the 25 year old hairdresser when they bought their first condo:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/what-women-want-in-a-condo/article7442398/

Really? 25 year old hairdresser buying an overpriced condo in TO…you know rhere’s less than 5% down there.

Naked Official #9000
Guest
Naked Official #9000

@Chabar #55

Disloyal cadre! Your disharmonious, splittist, ideological cynicism has no place amongst the unique trees and mountain views! There are only 9 million mountains in this concessionary area known as “Canada,” but keep that to yourselves. We’ll work on the name later.

(you know what i think about all this, i just wanted an excuse to use my catch phrase)

if you need me, i’ll be getting my phony LV leather Galaxy Case fitted to my belt and shopping for black Audis you’ve never heard of.

piklishi
Guest
piklishi

@RealityCheck

I think will be more than that, with confidence I would say 35%. It will be around 227K down so a bit above 400k which is a more reasonable price. I still would not not buy in Surrey but that’s my preference.

BTW the prices were slashed by Bosa too. Just received an e-mail saying that: IT’S A GOOD THINK YOU WAITED now 20K off. Take that bulls. Start listing your properties now for 20% less, before it’s too late.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Schiller was on BNN today and his thesis is that house prices rise at the same rate as inflation
I wonder what rate of inflation he means
Inflation as reported (which I think is lower than actual inflation), wage inflation or actual inflation?

I would think it would be wage inflation (perhaps a couple of percent a year)

Next question what would be the starting point for calculation? At the beginning of the bubble? The mid point? Or after the crash?

He also said he would not recommend anyone buy a second house as an investment in Vancouver he said use your imagination and diversify

But he also stated “I suppose it’s okay to own the house you live in” when asked about Vancouver real estate

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

A mid-range $650,000 detached house in the suburbs like Surrey is going to lose 20% of its value in 2013? Yes(Up), No (Down)

So ends up $130,000 less.

real_professional
Member

Teranet December data should be out any day now – perhaps even this week!

Unfortunately, the current weakness in sales won’t be reflected in prices until March data which will come out in April :(.

I am certain, without empirical evidence, that a smoothing of average sales is a leading indicator of the sales pair based index.

In which case: http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver_chart.html

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I see a regular image verification captcha on an android tablet, are you sure it’s not something wrong with your connection?

observer
Guest
observer

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21569396-our-latest-round-up-shows-many-housing-markets-are-still-dumps-home

“Overvaluation is especially marked in Canada, particularly with respect to rents (78%) but also in relation to income (34%). Mark Carney, the country’s central-bank governor, who is soon to jump ship to join the Bank of England, where he takes over from Sir Mervyn King in July, may have shown good market timing with his move to London as well as a deft hand in negotiating his lavish remuneration. Singapore and Hong Kong also look vulnerable to a correction, given the overvaluation on their price-to-rents ratios.”

604 Receding Gains
Member
604 Receding Gains

hey Pope, the Vancouver Peak registration page isn’t working properly. The Image Verification image does not pop up, so we can’t validate info to get access. I tried a few browsers including IE.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Conversation overheard in Point Grey. Two men in their late 50s.
– (tensed) Have you heard that the number of sales is dropping?
– (smiling) relax! Nothing can happen, it is Vancouver. Last year, prices went up as soon as the Chinese arrived for the CNY, in April. Just wait for February this year, believe me prices will pick up again.

They however looked like “informed citizens,” but I guess they only listen to Global.

VHB
Member
VHB

Time to get your party hats on, VCI! Here is the 13,000 inventory party thread:

http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-13K-party-for-2013?pid=236#pid236

crashcow
Member

Avg daily inventory growth this month: 125
Projected month-end inventory: 14,406

VMD
Member

Happy 13K everyone!

VHB
Member
VHB
Total days	21
Days elapsed so far	11
Weekends / holidays	5
Days missing	0
Days remaining	10
7 Day Moving Average: Sales	52
7 Day Moving Average: Listings	242
SALES	
Sales so far	607
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	522
Projected month end total	1129
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	2545
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	2418
Projected month end total	4963
Sell-list so far	23.9%
Projected month-end sell-list	22.7%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of Jan 16, 2013	13035
MoI at this sales pace	11.55
paulb
Member

New Listings 239
Price Changes 48
Sold Listings 52
TI:13035

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@veej: if they wanted it to sell for double what they paid they shouldn’t have bought a place where the address starts with a 4 😀

Veej
Member
Veej

Kind of sums up what Vancouver has turned into doesn’t it? Smaller parasites feeding off of larger parasites… I hope they go broke waiting in a long, agonizing, painfull and tormented wait.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/west-side-vancouver-sellers-holding-out-for-deep-pocketed-buyers/article7381772/

vangrl
Member
vangrl

ugh that Globe and Mail article is so irritating.

I hope that listing makes it over to http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/
in the next few months

greedy f@@KS

Run To Cache it Out While You Can!
Guest
Run To Cache it Out While You Can!

there was some chart (can’t find it now) that showed 40% of Vancouver RE market driven by speculators, so it’s reasonable to assume that about 40% of apartments are not ‘primary home’ for anybody, they are just chips in Vancouver RE casino.

It looks like there will be a problem to cache them out (if everybody getting jackpots in Casino – it goes bankrupt:)

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

“Ya, I have a car for sale. You can figure out what model it is, how many miles are on it, the colour and where I live yourself if you care. Otherwise you can pick it up now.”

So you’d buy a car without taking it for an independent inspection? Or verifying that there’s no outstanding finance on it? I love bad car analogies.