31% of apartments for sale are vacant

This is kind of amazing.

yvr2zrh posted this analysis of the percentage of property listings for sale that are vacant:

Across REBGV 19% of listed SFH are vacant and 31% of attached/apartments are vacant. So – 50% as the comment from Jesse is higher than actual but not completely out of reach for apartments. Some variations are noted.

SFH Vacant stats (number/%)(in order or highest to lowest)
Richmond 175 – 24%
Van West 148 – 23%
North Van 55 – 21%
Port Coq – 22 – 21%
Whistler – 39 – 21%
Van East – 87 – 20%
Burnaby – 71 – 20%
etc . . .

For Apartment/Attached, the following are the vacant properties
Whistler – 177 (42%)
Maple Ridge – 94 (34%)
Van West – 522 (34%)
New West 110 (33%)
Van East – 169 (33%)
Burnaby – 261 (31%)
Richmond – 298 (31%)
North Van – 115 (30%)


So, even if you have people who just want to hold back, why would they when there is cash outflows to carry the property and the future outlook is for price decreases?

Those who just hold off selling, where they are actually living in the unit, and are waiting for prices to increase, are bound to die living in that unit.

Later today, I will post my predictions for the 2013 market based on my model. What is really helpful is the MOI/monthly price change graph. That has been a really good indicator of price movements. Thus, I will post the projected MOI movements for 2013 and then we can see where the prices fall. It is important to know that listing volumes are down from last year. This is sufficiently so that we may see 2013 inventory intersect the 2012 inventory possibly at the end of the Spring and then track 2012 for the rest of the year.

This will be interesting to watch because once we are down 10-15% from peak prices – how can they continue to say things like prices are flat and this is a soft landing? I would say any decrease of 20% from the peak is not good as you immediately remove even more move-up buyers and put 1000′s of people underwater immediately.

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
gokou3
Guest
gokou3

Great stats, yvr2zrh, although you should include in your post on your definition of “vacant”, which if I understand correctly include tenant-occupied (rental) units.

Liarsstrike
Member
Liarsstrike

Immigration is a key demand component for housing. But as we have been seeing recently, the “Net non-permanent residents” category is taking up a bigger and bigger share of total immigration to BC. This is a change from 5 years ago (source link posted last topic).

That’s probably good news for all those vacant housing owners who are thinking of renting out their space because the non-permanent group usually start off as renters, at least in normal circumstances (whether they can afford asking rents is another issue).

Perhaps I am wrong and they instead buy even at current rich price-to-income valuation levels in the Vancouver market. Here is the definition of what a non-permanent resident is:

NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-x/2012003/technote-notetech1-eng.htm

G
Guest
G

Is there stats on the ratio of accepted price compare to listed price for the past few months?

patriotz
Member

“you should include in your post on your definition of “vacant”, which if I understand correctly include tenant-occupied (rental) units.”

You must be a fun guy on long airplane trips.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Patriotz comment #143 yesterday:

“It is obvious from the list of topics that it is aimed at sociological/anthropological fields and is completely irrelevant to an area such a finance where you have hard numbers on asset prices and earnings.”

Sociology and anthropology are NOT IRRELEVANT to the study of real estate bubbles. A real estate bubble is fundamentally a SOCIAL phenomenon. Think about the herd mentality of the masses of people who bought real estate because they think the price goes up forever. Think about all the social tension that results between renters and owners and between different races due to the HAM aspect. This is pure gold for sociologists to analyze.

patriotz
Member

“Sociology and anthropology are NOT IRRELEVANT to the study of real estate bubbles. ”

Of course they are relevant to why people buy for excessive prices but they are not relevant to whether the prices are excessive. That’s strictly a matter of numbers.

Many bubble deniers claim that you have to look at the psychology of the buyer to see whether there’s a bubble or not. You don’t – you just look at the prices.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@zhr2yvr

Great stuff as usual.
Let’s be clear – Listing volumes are slower than last year. Inventory will not rise this year as fast as last year (and thus, we may even cross over last year’s inventory rather than massively surpassing it).

I think it’s a bit too early to make that statement. Listings are definitely lower this year, but so are sales. At this pace, we would have the same additional listings in January this year as we had last year. The whisperer had a post on it today.

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/?m=1

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Patriotz, it is simply not true that you can determine whether or not someone is a bull or bear by whether they are using quantitative or qualitative methods.

Lots of qualitative thinkers like myself are in the bear camp.

Lots of quantitative thinkers are in the bull camp. The real estate cartel is always coming out with statistics, the much-criticized HPI, for example. Those people have been trained to think quantitatively and they pump real estate.

I don’t see how the question of why people buy is irrelevant to this forum. It may be irrelevant to whether or not prices are inflated, but it is not irrelevant to the general topic of Vancouver real estate and real estate bubbles that we discuss here.

canadian
Guest
canadian

yvr2zrh / others

where do you see the occupancy code. i could not find it anywhere?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
A perfectly reasonable comment (#148) by Ludvig von Mises that was voted into foreclosure by the quantitative groupthinkers of this blog: “If you focus exclusively on numbers you might well lose sight of “qualitative” change, such as change in values and attitudes which affect the market you are trying to predict. LVM is also bang on with this: “To predict the direction of the Vancouver real estate market based exclusively on your ratios and charts is impossible.” Patriotz followed up with a hubristic comment that essentially says he CAN predict the RE market based solely on charts and numbers. So you are saying you can predict HUMAN behaviours and HUMAN systems based solely on numbers. The classic mistake you are making is assuming that people are RATIONAL ECONOMIC ACTORS who make calculated economic decisions based on self interest. The problem… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

By the way, Patriotz et al.. all you quantitative group thinkers I keep criticizing.

I want you to know that I do think you are smart. I do think your quantitative analysis of Van RE is genius. I appreciate what you have to contribute to the realm of knowledge. Thank you.

I just wish you would recognize the limitations of quantitative methods and the value that others who are trained to think more qualitatively or who are trained in sociology/anthropology might be able to add to this discussion on Van RE. Jesse asked yesterday what’s my beef. That’s basically it.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
So out of good will, I am going to keep posting qualitative anecdotes and things that I think are interesting from a sociological perspective on our real estate bubble. You guys should love this. Chief Theresa Spence has admitted that the Attawapiskat First Nation has invested $20 million in 45 condos in Downtown Toronto. The chief says they did this because they did not want to invest in “settler banks” (great way to avoid the white man’s bank–just invest in real estate–ouch banks have their hands in that pie too!) and they expect Toronto condos to go up in price 10% a year FOREVER!!! Priceless quote from the Chief at the forefront of the Idle No More protests: “After doing some research and talking to some Toronto realtors, we decided to make a strategic investment by using the cash to… Read more »
No Noise
Guest
No Noise
I just want to sum up what I was trying to say in too many posts a couple of days ago re WHY RENTS ARE DROPPING. As long as there is this standoff between buyers and sellers and activity is way down – and with time the threat that the economy will suffer and owners want to limit their cash burn-rate, rental stock in the city will tend to be maximized, thus increasing supply, thus dropping prices. All those units which would otherwise sit empty because they expect to be sold, or are in the transition between last/next occupation, as well as new completions, are tending towards maximum city rental stock. As a renter/potential buyer it doesn’t bother me to see low sales listings because that equals high rental listings. And low home prices will get there in the end.… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Regarding my post on the Attawapiskat First Nation being invested in Toronto condos. It turns out that is from a satire news website, similar to The Onion. So basically the whole thing is BS. Sorry. I was duped into thinking it was true.

No Noise
Guest
No Noise

@13 anonymous

btw I guess we can start referring to the Patriotz, Jesse’s, yvrz2rh as the QUANTS and us as the QUALS? I’ve heard the term quant used commonly in banking. However, while I have zero statistical ability (everything I’ve learned re economics/RE I’ve learned here on VCI) thus will never be producing graphs, etc, I think everyone should find value in both qualitative and quantitative info here from both bulls and bears, unless their data/arguments are flawed of course.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@No Noise:

Thank you. It’s nice to know I am not alone in terms of being more of a qualitative thinker who frequents this site.

You said: “I think everyone should find value in both qualitative and quantitative info here from both bulls and bears, unless their data/arguments are flawed of course.”

I agree 100%.

VMD
Member

[Who’s losing in the housing slump? Real estate agents]
1/16/2013
“Home sales continue to plummet in most parts of the country, and with the decline has come a new reality for organized real estate: a drop in how much money everybody is making.”
“It’s not just realtors feeling the pinch. Lawyers, renovators and even the government can expect to feel some sort of impact from a decline in sales. ”
“..one of issue for agents is they get used to a certain sales level so any pullback seems catastrophic even if it just puts them back to where they were in 2010 — when, at the time, many would have been satisfied with their sales volume.”
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/16/whos-losing-in-the-housing-slump-real-estate-agents/?__lsa=064f-b554

G
Guest
G

Thanks for the stats. But this vacancy stats means nothing if we don’t have anything to compare to, ie: last year’s vacancy?

No Noise
Guest
No Noise

@19 Anonymous

Your welcome. I suspect you have a lot of good info to add here – now pick a name so we can follow what you have to say over time. Otherwise we never know if it’s you or one of the many other anons.

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

@yvr2zrh

I’d be interested in knowing the % inventory listed by Real Estate agents. I know quite a few who have multiple properties. I know most bears have quite a bit of contempt for RE agents and their unprofessionalness during this bubble, but a lot of them truly believed the nonsense they were spewing.

I imagine as this is the industry where incomes will be pinched first from the declining market, that these will be one of the first groups that start selling aggressively.

VHB
Member
VHB

hey sociologist: drop the snotty attitude and watch the downvotes magically disappear!

Surprising that a contextually-sensitive sociologist would entirely miss that kind of dynamic.

Bring it with the anecdotes. Those are valuable. But please consider stopping with the “I’m the only one bringing anecdotes to the table” banter because it is condescending, not to mention not true.

VHB
Member
VHB

For the quant-minded, some numbers!

period sell list percent
2011Jan1sthalf 70 216 33%
2011Jan2ndhalf 110 260 42%
2012Jan1sthalf 57 271 21%
2012Jan2ndhalf 90 277 32%
2013Jan1sthalf 54 227 24%

So, if this January follows the pattern we can expect about a 50% increase in sales in the 2nd half of the month. This would mean we should average around 80 sales/day in the 2nd half of Jan2013. Listings might tick up a bit, but not by 50%.

wpDiscuz