Canada: the worlds biggest housing bubble?

Are we the home of the worlds biggest housing bubble?

That’s what they’re saying over at the Atlantic.

How real is Canada’s housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country’s.

 

As realtors like to remind us, every market’s different, but there are three big takeaways here.
1) Rich Chinese buyers tend to make for overheated markets. Some of the priciest housing markets in the world have one thing in common, besides low-interest rates (which prevail most everywhere): Chinese expats. Vancouver, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Sydney are among the most popular destinations for wealthy Chinese looking to hedge their bets, and this exit-strategy buying has helped push prices in these locales into the stratosphere.
2) Housing busts can take awhile. After a decade of boom and bust, prices are back to fair value, below it actually, in the U.S. and Ireland, but still have a way to come down in Spain and Britain. Zombie banks tend to be reluctant to realize losses on bad loans, propping up prices in the process, but eventually reality has its day. The sooner that happens, the sooner housing, and construction, can come back.
3) Housing recoveries can take even longer. It was just 20 years ago that the land below the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was supposed to be worth more than all of the land in California combined. But beware the enduring costs of bad macro policy. Too tight money for too long has kept housing prices in hibernation decades on.

68 Responses to “Canada: the worlds biggest housing bubble?”

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    Londonernow Londonernow Says:
    1

    Is this article implying policy has been tight in Japan?!? If tight leads to a Debt to GDP in excess of 200%, I wouldn’t even be able to fathom what loose means.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2

    Londonernow Londonernow Says:
    2

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 22

    Londonernow Londonernow Says:
    3

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 22

    If you want to live in the best place on earth, you’re going to have to make some sacrifices. How about living in your car?

    “There’s a whole community of van and car dwellers sprinkled throughout the city’s west side.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/01/27/mobile-living-vancouver-van-dwellers-housing_n_2560651.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-business&ir=Canada%20Business#slide=2030118

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 2

    Group Masterbator Says:
    5

    Prediction: 14K party today!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 3

    Name taken Says:
    6

    Wow, he has to pay $200 for parking!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    7

    10-year bonds continue moving up, now at 2%. Highest since May 2012.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GCAN10YR:IND

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 0

    Keeping An Eye On The Pimps Says:
    8

    This is a must read for the bulls who were first disappointed that the 100 year mortgage they had hoped for is not going to materialize to float the bubble.
    Now comes the first signs the bond market will crater, and therefore, the central bankers won’t be able to control the spike in mortgage rates.

    “It is clear that investors are moving out of US treasuries, which have been seen as a safe haven asset, on expectations that the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies would weigh on the bond markets”

    http://www.livemint.com/Money/9B20U38qMew8W3jJpoE52O/Funds-are-flowing-out-of-US-govt-bonds-into-emerging-markets.html

    Bulls get ready for the Waterloo moment of your petty and miserable lives.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 3

    @Q:
    “There’s a whole community of van and car dwellers sprinkled throughout the city’s west side.”
    These people get it – it’s all about location location location. There are some nicely sized lots around Drummond Drive. Great area for a hip tent city.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 0

    “Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, urging central banks to secure “escape velocity” for their economies, said there is still room for more monetary stimulus around the world if needed.”

    http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/28/carney-urges-central-banks-to-achieve-escape-velocity-for-economies-still-room-for-stimulus/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    High cost of Vancouver real estate is justified because of Vancouver’s “Lululemon culture”! In the Vancouver Sun:

    “And who doesn’t want to live in Vancouver? The beaches, the restaurants, the Lululemon culture, the bike lanes.”

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Shelley+Fralic+have+seen+future+cool+Surrey/7879581/story.html

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 0

    Had to comment on this blogpost from last night:

    @tonight, drinking red wine by the fireplace, we were saying: “we love our home so much, this house is so peaceful and relaxing! ” Then I said: “Well, imagine we owned it, we would be saving to change to roof shingles and the hot water tank, we would still be paying for fixing the furnace (2 weeks ago), the repairs on the gutter (4 months ago) and the drain tiles (last year).” The same place could in fact be a source of constant worries…

    Wow. Anon… you really know how to get your romance on… red wine, fireplace, presumably hot babe or wife and you deliver a lecture on costs of owning vs. renting? And then go on to list out the repairs?Maybe this real estate obsession is something to knock on the head, dude.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 9

    Groundhog Says:
    13

    @Q

    Thought the headline was a good one too.
    “Shelley Fralic: We have seen the future of cool, and it is Surrey”

    I never connected overpriced housing with overpriced jogging pants, but maybe there is some correlation there.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 0

    Many Franks Says:
    14

    From the funny-looking-sheep-with-sharp-teeth tell other sheep not to be concerned about wolves department:

    There is no real estate bubble in Vancouver and markets will remain stable in 2013 — as long as interest rates remain low, immigration targets are met and Europe’s economy doesn’t melt down, a panel of real estate developers told more than 1,100 real estate professionals, business leaders and B.C. politicians on Thursday.

    And that’s just the opening paragraph.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 34 Thumb down 2

    Atomic Frog Says:
    15

    Just came back from a trip to China, and here is a few highlites:

    1. Housing is also expensive for the locals in the major city. To make it worse, it is harder than here to qualify for a mortgage unless u have connections. The bank need co-signs and stuff like that…

    2. 99% of the wealth is controlled by less than 1% of the population (1.3 billion). Well that is still a lot of rich folks.

    3. The general middle class and the working class have deep resentment towards the officials/businessmen/professionals who help them like lawyers/accountants. The new communist leader vowed to stop corruption; witch hunting is only for show. The folks who get caught are mostly staged or framed.

    4. Harmony in the society is ALL for show only. The govt official can do anything to MAKE YOU HARMONY <– direct translation from Chinese.

    5. Major cities like Beijing, SH have infrastructures better than any urban cities in the world. The condition for some villages closer to inland is worse than villages in Africa.

    6. Extreme polarization of wealth; a 5 yr old kid once said to a newspaper that he wants to be a corrupted official when he grows up. That is quite telling of what is going on in this country.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 47 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    16

    “It is clear that investors are moving out of US treasuries”

    Is it? If I want to get out of US treasuries who do I sell them to?

    I think he means that investors are demanding higher yields for US treasuries.

    The rest of the article has a “talking his book” feel to it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2

    BulbsForSale Says:
    17

    @atomicfrog: Whats the average middle class income like there? Is it low like in Vancouver?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    Atomic Frog Says:
    18

    @BulbsForSale

    Depending on your definition of general middle class, the average income in monetary terms should be lower than in N. America. But for certain professions like lawyer/accountant/doctor/dentist, I think it should be higher than here. But that is just from what I can see and tell. (for a dr it is obviously more because if u don’t pay them money, they will NOT treat u even if u have life threatening illnesses)

    The problem in China is that justice is not served by the law, it is served by who u r, who u know, how much $ u have, that sort of thing.

    The last communist leader vowed to build a “middle class” society. Ten yrs later, the new leader is now all about combating corruption (well at least that is what he said publicly, but no one in China is taking him seriously).

    Lastly, the impression that I got from the Chinese general public is that there are only 2 kinds of folks who can immigrate to Vancouver (Canada to them). The majority of them are the rich ppl, a small minority of them are professionals like engineers.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 1

    Best place on meth Says:
    19

    @Atomic Frog

    Obviously the corrupt officials are taking him seriously if they’re suddenly dumping their ill-gotten real estate holdings.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    21

    January 28, 2013 – Moody’s downgrades 6 Canadian banks.

    Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded the long-term ratings of six Canadian banks, including Toronto-Dominion, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal and CIBC.

    The ratings agency lowered each of its ratings 1 notch, citing high levels of consumer debt and high home prices. Moody’s had put all six banks under review in October.

    “High levels of consumer indebtedness and elevated housing prices leave Canadian banks more vulnerable than in the past to downside risks the Canadian economy faces,” Moody’s said in a note.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 45 Thumb down 2

    /dev/null Says:
    22

    Moody’s downgrades six Canadian banks – RBC the only one of Big Six banks to escape downgrade

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/01/28/business-moodys-downgrades-banks.html

    The ratings agency lowered each of its ratings 1 notch, citing high levels of consumer debt and high home prices. Moody’s had put all six banks under review in October.

    “High levels of consumer indebtedness and elevated housing prices leave Canadian banks more vulnerable than in the past to downside risks the Canadian economy faces,” Moody’s said in a note.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 0

    true story-

    friend on facebook updates her status asking friends if they can recommend a VERY affordable financial adviser. A bunch of friends reply with suggestions to:

    - don’t buy mutual funds
    - talk to your bank for free
    - don’t pay a so called “expert” ludicrous fees
    - do a little studying and open up something self-directed
    - great guy in North Van
    - put everything in TFSA before RRSP.

    you get the idea, they received a bunch of info on investing.

    their reply:

    “we need much more basic advice, we’re not investing, we’re going to school and we need advice from an expert on how to handle our mortgage, it’s getting complicated and a little stressful”

    now these are really nice folks, I wish them no harm, and I feel a bit bad about posting this, but they just bought their first place/apartment last summer, and they are now wondering how to handle their mortgage? what more advice can you give someone besides telling them that it has to be paid every month?

    ugh:(

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 59 Thumb down 1

    @Groundhog

    Great posts, loved the comments especially on the ZH link. My favourite was this one:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-28/mark-carney-leaves-canada-stealth-qe-rising-fastest-pace-2009#comment-3192134

    As for the 10 Year bond, it looks like about a 25 bp uptick in a little over a month. I see no stopping this really when you put it together with the charts from the ZH post.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    asalvari1 Says:
    25

    vangirl

    are you telling me that they have hard time doing basic math like addition and subtraction, and they will need help?

    Well, I am not very much surprised, I have met too many folks that jumped in with,” lets buy it and figure out the carrying cost as we go”.. It really upsets me, but considering the whole f-ing situation here (Vancouver) now, after all these years of madness, all I can say “here we are now, entertain us”. (with Curt yelling voice)

    Probably they are trying to get help to restructure their expenses, but considering the credit rules it may be really difficult. I hope they have cushion and can find a way to restructure..

    p.s. “it’s getting complicated and a little stressful” does not seems to me as great condition to be in.. probably they will list soon.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    pricedoutfornow Says:
    26

    A friend of mine is hellbent on buying a house (not in Vancouver). I’ve warned her to hold off buying, saying interest rates going up, renting might be cheaper etc. She doesn’t care, her siblings have all leaped in and bought in the past year, so she’s decided it’s time for her to buy too. Only problem? Her income is $32k per year, and she’s dating a guy whose income is questionably, $15k per year (he is self-employed and has little verifiable income, they’ve only been together a year but plan on buying together). The properties they are looking at are around $250k and they have maybe $10k to put down. She says no problem, she can get one of her relatives to co-sign for her on the mortgage. I say…yikes! (do banks actually consider a cosigner, will they dish out more $$ if there’s one in place? Sounds kinda risky to me!) Anyway, I think it’s a bad idea, she’ll be overextended on it (she has a child from a previous relationship as well, and no child support is paid to her)…always a good way to cement a new relationship, take on a bunch of debt together!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 0

    always a good way to cement a new relationship, take on a bunch of debt together!

    Forget about the relationship – she can always break up with her boyfriend. But she is getting a relative to cosign her mortgage, and you can’t break up with your relatives. I can’t imagine the Hell that Thanksgiving dinner would become if I went bankrupt and in the process took down my mother/father/uncle with me.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 0

    Anonymoose Says:
    28

    There was a post a week ago about the Abbotsford banker and underwater mortgages in the FV. I wanted to add something to that.

    My wife used to own a condo in Abby that we sold two years ago at about break even. Building was built in 2006/7 and is nice, but nothing that can’t be replicated, which of course has happened. I’ve kept in contact with a few people we met in the building. People are now selling at a loss of 20 to 25% losing 30k to 50k. I heard of one situation where a second owner trying to sell who cannot rent the unit due to bylaws, they already bought a home they cannot afford, have not been able to sell for a year and a half, and now are basically acting as the lender to skirt the rental bylaw because the only buyer can’t qualify for a $180k mortgage.

    Some people may not care about the above, but these sellers are trying to “move up” but are basically losing their down payments in the process.

    I also got an email from a friend today. He said someone he knows just got an offer on their townhome in Chilliwack which has been on the market for quite some time, at asking price which is still a 50k loss for them, but since they wouldn’t budge the buyers wanted all the furniture including art and exercise equipment. I don’t think that is calculated in the HPI!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 41 Thumb down 0

    @Q: ““And who doesn’t want to live in Vancouver? The beaches, the restaurants, the Lululemon culture, the bike lanes.”

    LOL! Vancouver Sun and related MSM stories on the city and RE are becoming caricatures of themselves.

    You couldn’t write all these shenanigans up and try to pass it off as fiction — no editor would consider it to be remotely believable to a reader.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    30

    “(do banks actually consider a cosigner, will they dish out more $$ if there’s one in place? Sounds kinda risky to me!)”

    A cosigner is supposed to help contribute to the payment. It is not the same a a guarantor who is just there in case of default. A cosigner is one of the co-borrowers. Anyone who cosigns should have no problem paying for part of the mortgage because that is what they are agreeing to do.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    oneangryslav2 Says:
    31

    @vangrl #23:

    what more advice can you give someone besides telling them that it has to be paid every month?

    That’s what I used to think, also. But now your mortgage doesn’t have to be paid every month:

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    @Anonymoose
    “these sellers are trying to “move up” but are basically losing their down payments in the process.”

    There’s “moving up” and then there’s idiocy.
    These sellers can’t be faulted for trying to move up, but the way they are doing it is a reckless gamble… with predictable results for many of them who try.

    Also taking into consideration another topic in this thread — co-signing for a purchase, I can’t decide which one is worse.

    But if there were to be a “10 Commandments of RE for Dummies”, those two would be have to be right up there…
    1. Thou shalt not buy a new place before you sell your old place
    2. Thou shalt not no co-sign for a mortgage (nor seek a co-signer)
    3. …
    4. ?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    CashedOut Says:
    33

    Just to follow up on the ski, golf, swim/surf etc discussion:

    At the canucks open scrimmage a few weeks back I noticed that the pregame montage characterizes Vancouver as a city where you can ski, golf and kayak in the same day.

    Fwiw

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    @vangrl
    “we need much more basic advice, we’re not investing, we’re going to school and we need advice from an expert on how to handle our mortgage, it’s getting complicated and a little stressful”

    They are going to school and they have trouble paying the mortgage? Isn’t “going to school” a well paid profession??? Someone should tell the bank!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    #16 ” I want to get out of US treasuries who do I sell them to?”

    The Fed?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 2

    Some Guy Says:
    36

    Went to a few open houses yesterday (tri-cities), lots of people milling around, a couple of realtors mentioned ‘motivated sellers’ and ‘room for negotiation’ much more openly than anything I encountered last year. I guess we’ll see if potential buyers and motivated sellers translates into sales a couple of weeks down the line.

    On the topic of the weak rental market, realtor mentioned that the suite in one place would have rented for $900 last year, but probably $850 now.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 1

    Democrass Says:
    37

    More sleazy realtor stories. Here is one from Toronto where a realtor and a paralegal forged a judge’s signature on a fake judgment against two people that they were suing. You gotta love “professions” which no code of conduct or ethics.

    Law Times
    “A Toronto paralegal and a real estate agent forged a judge’s signature on a fake default judgment against two defendants they were suing, Superior Court Justice Michael Penny has found.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3

    Landbaron Says:
    38

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/financial-road-map/renters-want-a-house-but-if-not-at-least-their-house-in-order/article7920860/?cmpid=rss1

    “There may very well be a time where she can purchase a home for significantly less than a home costs now.”

    Sooner than they think I bet

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    39

    “And who doesn’t want to live in Vancouver? The beaches, the restaurants, the Lululemon culture, the bike lanes.”

    Who has time to go to the beaches? Most importantly When is sunny and warm enough to go to the beaches?

    Who has money left to go to over-priced restaurants. You pay easily $10 even at a food court these days.

    What is the “Lululemon culture”? Does that mean we like walking outside looking like we just rolled out of bed?

    Who wants to deal with Vancouver drivers on the road? I value my life. Thank you very much.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 7

    Groundhog, or anyone

    10-year bonds continue moving up, now at 2%. Highest since May 2012.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GCAN10YR:IND

    For the bond market illiterate ( me), as the yields go up on long term bonds then so do interest rates and mortgage rates? Just trying to figure out what exactly that means.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    41

    …….The beaches, the restaurants, the Lululemon culture, the bike lanes……

    Hey! No slagging Lululemon! Lululemon has done more to save Assess then Noah’s Ark.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 3

    Here’s some speculative bear food for y’all.

    Remember this one?

    http://tarashave.com/v973429-804-123-w-1st-av

    The agent took an ad on craiglslist claiming the owner paid something like 1.1M original price. And is now selling at 33% off. All the way down to 729K asking. We saw it when it was 849K asking. Well, now the owner or resident has packed up and left. There is no one in the unit. What gives? Maybe it was a rental. Maybe the owner went back home to wherever.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    43

    @DaMann

    Yes. Mortgage rates don’t generally change on a day-to-day basis along with bond yields, but if bond rates rise by say .25% and stay .25% higher, then mortgage rates will generally follow.

    The 10-year rate could jump to 2.25% next week for a day, then fall back down to 2%, and you wouldn’t see mortgage rates change, but if it stayed at 2.25% for a couple weeks, then you might see mortgage rates increase. Make sense?

    However, I think variable rates are a little more influenced by the BOC overnight rate.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    @Anonymous

    What is the “Lululemon culture”? Does that mean we like walking outside looking like we just rolled out of bed?

    This is the “Lululemon culture”: http://travel.ca.msn.com/photogallery.aspx?cp-documentid=30567563&page=8

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 3

    Landbaron Says:
    45

    @bubbly

    Co-signing parents who are going to take the brunt of the downturn and ruin their retirement.

    The banks don’t care as long as someone else with ‘equity’ signs the documents.

    I’ve seen a lot of this in my age group and it amazes me as I’m 35!!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    46

    Icesave: Icelandic government wins compensation ruling

    The court says that Iceland did not have to compensate Icesave customers in the UK because the relevant European directive did not oblige the government to set a minimum amount for compensation, nor did it force the state to pick up the tab if banks themselves could not pay.

    That is, if you lend money to a business (i.e. make a bank deposit) and there’s no government guarantee, you’re not entitled to get your money back. What a concept.

    Anyone who still thinks that K. O’Leary isn’t full of it should listen to his comment on Beauty and the Beast tonight.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    47

    And from someone who actually believes in free enterprise:

    Iceland Wins! “Icesave” Lawsuit Dismissed, Court Orders EC and EFTA to Pay Costs

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    Re #42 mac:

    “http://tarashave.com/v973429-804-123-w-1st-av

    The agent took an ad on craiglslist claiming the owner paid something like 1.1M original price. And is now selling at 33% off. All the way down to 729K asking. We saw it when it was 849K asking. Well, now the owner or resident has packed up and left. There is no one in the unit. What gives? Maybe it was a rental. Maybe the owner went back home to wherever.”

    This building is fugly. And $671 maintenance fee for a 1004SF place? WTF? The swimming pool+sauna+jacuzzi probably costs each unit $200+/month to maintain since it’s not a very tall building.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    ReadyToPop Says:
    49

    “The outcome would have been different only if the Fed and others had reacted back in 2004, 2005, 2006” to curtail subprime mortgage lending, Mr. Poole, now a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute, said on Friday in an interview on CNBC.

    The transcripts show that the Fed entered 2007 still deeply complacent about the housing market. Officials knew that people were losing their homes. They knew that subprime lenders were blinking out of business with each passing week. But they did not understand the implications for the rest of the nation.

    Days Before Housing Bust, Fed Doubted Need to Act

    Interesting reading…and I probably don’t have to tell anyone around here why…..RTP

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/rental+units+rise+Vancouver/7880342/story.html

    New rental units are on the rise in Vancouver
    City approves 1,021 such developments for construction, up from zero in 2009

    New numbers from the city of Vancouver show 1,021 rental units were approved for development in 2012, more than three times that of 2010 and 2011, when an average of 328 units were approved. No new rental units were approved in 2008 or 2009.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    51

    “The outcome would have been different only if the Fed and others had reacted back in 2004, 2005, 2006” to curtail subprime mortgage lending, Mr. Poole, now a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute, said on Friday in an interview on CNBC.

    As we saw just a few threads ago, this is the same Cato Institute that was denying there was a housing bubble in the first place in 2005, so it’s comical to see them blaming anyone for not doing anything about it.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 1

    New Listings 281
    Price Changes 100
    Sold Listings 102
    TI:13997

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 110 Thumb down 0

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    53

    Sales in the triple digits! Is that the first time this year?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    14K party will have to wait another day.

    From Garth’s blog:

    “FYI: Todays’s stats from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board show year over year sales down a wopping 30% …
    —————————————————————-

    FVREB STATS – as of January 28, 2013
    18 of 22 Working Days
    JANUARY 2013 Listings 2155 Sales 459
    DECEMBER 2012 Listings 871 Sales 662
    JANUARY 2012 Listings 2427 Sales 654″

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    55

    Big sales day! Sales over 100!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 5

    January looks to be coming in at about 1320 sales inventory of 13.3K or so (REBGV reported).

    Taking the average of the ratio of sales/workingday between Feb and Jan (2005-2012) produces 1.65. That would equate to 99.5 sales/workingday in February 2013, or 1891 total sales.

    Likewise, daily inventory growth in February (from January month-end) is an average of 0.4%/day. That would equate to reported inventory of 14335 at the end of February 2013. That produces an MOI of 7.58.

    March and February MOIs are generally quite close together, with the exception of 2009 that saw MOI in March down 36% from February. Taking the average MOI change from Feb-Mar equals -14%, which would equate to a March 2013 MOI of 6.50.

    In past years, save 2009, March is the bottom for MOI for the year. If trends continue as most reecnt years (i.e. 2008,2010,2011, and 2012), and we do not see a marked rebound in sales as in 2009, it looks like MOI for the year will be in what I would gracefully call “correction mode”.

    A caveat is that I would not discount this year showing some slight strength over last year. I think the balance of evidence points towards continuing weakness but there are uncertainties in any analysis and, honestly, nothing would surprise me any more.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 3

    And last chance for the price prediction contest! Please get your entries in by the end of tonight!

    See this thread for the rules

    You only need enter for the categories you want, the other ones you can ignore if it’s not of interest to you.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 23

    RealityCheck Says:
    59

    Foreign Buyers. Oh yeah, India has just doubled the amount of $money$ allowed to leave the country tax free. Dad, who visited from India, just bought his son (International student) I know a house in Surrey for cash.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-foreign-hands-that-help-to-shape-canadian-home-prices/article7935464/

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 12

    RealityCheck Says:
    60

    Oh, and that house was NOT listed on MLS.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 7

    Groundhog Says:
    61

    @RealityCheck

    The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 5

    Anonymous Says:
    62

    RealityCheck:

    You sound scared shtless. That east van dump will be worth 20 cents on the dollar in a few years. Some third world immigrant is not going to bail you out.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 4

    Keeping An Eye On The Pimps Says:
    63

    @RealityCheck

    Wow, Canada is a whimsical place, and quite extraordinary.

    We have Ogopogo and many rich foreigners.

    That house that was sold and wasn’t even listed…. Please, won’t you tell us more.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    64

    still waiting for a significant/sustained surge in listings.

    it will come…but thus far it has been elusive….

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 5

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 16

    @seth

    I get the feeling that you are frustrated by not being a real estate owner. Why don’t you buy something else for now? Buy some stocks, or invest directly in a business. It’s not like houses are the only assets out there. And if houses become a good deal here again, you can buy one then.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    RealityCheck Says:
    67

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 15

    What on earth has it got to do with the children?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

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