Condos pulling down Vancouver home prices

Dropping prices on condos are being blamed for pulling down home costs in Vancouver.

..because what could be worse than more affordable housing?

Prices on all housing types are falling with forecast for more price drops, Royal LePage is forecasting a 3% drop overall in 2013 but the largest drops so far are being seen in the condo market, which have fallen 3.6%.

“Buyers are waiting for that big decrease to happen but I think if they’re going to keep waiting for that, chances are they aren’t going to see it,” said Todd Talbot, realtor and host of W Network’s Love It or List It Vancouver.

That’s because industry experts say some sellers aren’t interested in making significant price reductions, and are taking their homes off the market.

“They don’t have to sell,” said Brendon Ogmundson, an economist with the BC Real Estate Association.

“You don’t find a lot of extra listings unless people need to sell quickly because of some financial catastrophe, and that simply isn’t in the cards, so what we’re going to see is normal demand and supply dynamics.”

Now I’m curious – what’s you best guess.  Does the BCREA economist really believe that prices are set by people taking their property off the market, or by the properties that are sold?

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patriotz
Member
3 years 7 months ago

Buyers are waiting for that big decrease to happen but I think if they’re going to keep waiting for that, chances are they aren’t going to see it,

If buyers don’t buy who are the people who have to sell going to sell to?

“They don’t have to sell,” said Brendon Ogmundson, an economist with the BC Real Estate Association.

See above, Brendon.

http://piggington.com/fence_sitters_will_be_sorry

K
Guest
K
3 years 7 months ago
One-year-old condo building in Calgary with apparently major construction defects: “Calgary firefighters rescued a family on Wednesday after they became trapped in an elevator that was starting to fill with water. “It was a very bad moment,” says father Alireza Tabatabaei who was trapped with his wife and two-year-old daughter…. Water from a burst pipe on the eighth floor caused a short circuit in the wiring which cut the electricity and sent water pouring into the elevator below. Jason Li, who lives on the seventh floor, says he heard a popping sound as he was locking his door and then… Read more »
K
Guest
K
3 years 7 months ago

Arson suspected in burnt condo under construction in the interior. From CBC:

“RCMP in B.C.’s Columbia Valley are trying to determine what sparked a spectacular fire over the holiday season that gutted five condos under construction.

Arson is suspected in the fire at the half-finished Columbia Eagle condo complex in Fairmont on Dec. 22.

Construction on the luxury five-condo project began about six years ago, but then the vacation housing market collapsed.

The weathered framed buildings sat like skeletons by the highway for years.

“The buildings are unfinished and quite dried out and they just went up like candles,” said fire chief Jim Miller.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/01/07/bc-arson-suspected-condo-fire.html

Boombust
Guest
Boombust
3 years 7 months ago

BUYERS always determine the direction of the market. It’s not the other way around as he would have it. Dumb.

Lorenzo Cavanaugh
Guest
Lorenzo Cavanaugh
3 years 7 months ago

I think it depends on the months of inventory. An increase in cancelled listing could stabilize prices if the months of inventory was low. However, if the months of inventory, after the reduction of non motivated sellers remains high, then you have a market full of motivated sellers competing to get their home sold before another Vendor can sell their house. That would make prices decline.

Harry Wang
Guest
Harry Wang
3 years 7 months ago

Macleans article – Great Canadian real estate crash of 2013

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/01/09/crash-and-burn/

Canada building permits plunge into the basement

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/10/canada-building-permits-plunge-into-the-basement/?__lsa=9270-0ec7

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks
3 years 7 months ago

Ah, Vancouver. It’s a long way from the crow’s nest to the poop deck. Canadian million-dollar home sales booming — except…

The Vancouver market, however, did fall back, with sales of homes valued at over $1 million declining by 34 per cent on the year, falling back from the stratospheric highs in 2011.

Even in Vancouver, though, in the first half of the year, 22 per cent of homes listed at more than $1 million ended up selling over asking. By the latter half of the year, that dropped to five per cent.

Even the silver lining is looking a little brown.

b5baxter
Member
3 years 7 months ago

Here is the newest inventory graph:
http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Inventory-Graphs?pid=188#pid188

Since the beginning of the year the average daily increase was: 79
At this rate we would reach 13,000 in 10 days (Jan-20-13)
At this rate we would reach 21,000 in 98 days (Apr-18-13)
and 25,000 by June 21, 2013

So, far inventory has increased faster in 2013 than in 2012.

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it
3 years 7 months ago

1 Patriotz
I love that chart with the quotes superimposed on it. Hopefully someone from this site puts something like that together in a couple years for Vancouver.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 7 months ago
One of the things we learn as skeptics of the great Canadian housing boom is how seemingly unsustainable market dynamics can go on longer than one ever imagines. On the other end, post-bubble, this appears to be true as well. I’m linking in a summary from Mark Hanson (for all intents and purposes, the Ben Rabidoux of the U.S.) which describes the ongoing and fundamental weakness in the US market. You would think that 6 years after the US market peak that there would be a pretty good fundamental case for a rebound. However, if one cares to do homework,… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 7 months ago

@Many Franks:

It’s been a while since I heard the words “red hot” used to describe Canadian real estate…

“Canada’s conventional housing market is showing signs of a slowdown, but the action at the high end of the market continues to be red hot.”

patriotz
Member
3 years 7 months ago

“You would think that 6 years after the US market peak that there would be a pretty good fundamental case for a rebound”

Prices in the US are simply back to historical multiples and incomes, so in fact there is no fundamental case for a rebound.

DJB
Guest
DJB
3 years 7 months ago

That’s because industry experts say some sellers aren’t interested in making significant price reductions, and are taking their homes off the market.

“They don’t have to sell,” said Brendon Ogmundson, an economist with the BC Real Estate Association.

Well without sellers I guess the ranks of R/E agents that BCREA represents will be dropping like flies.

If there are no homes on the market and no sales then I guess the economics of that situation will render Brendon to be redundant.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks
3 years 7 months ago

@Anonymous: What could be more appropriate than “red hot”? Nobody wants to touch it or they’ll get burned. And it sure would explain a rash of spontaneous condo combustion.

RaggedyRenter
Member
RaggedyRenter
3 years 7 months ago
I am not sure why BCREA send a message to people to not lower their price. What good does it make to their member? I’m sure they’d rather have an elevated sales number with 15% lower price than the current market stand-off. Turning tricks is the key to their income. If anything they should be encouraging people to list at lower price to encourage faster turnaround. There are still some people who are looking to buy even in this kind of market. I can help with the lingo to soften the blow and massage the ego right-price : list at… Read more »
Moldcity
Guest
Moldcity
3 years 7 months ago

@raggedyrenter its not about the comfort of sellers, it’s about not scaring away buyers. You can bet realtors are trying to talk sellers into lowering their listing price so they can get their commission and move on.

But they don’t want the message to scare off potential buyers. Who in their right mind would buy if even the realtors were publicly saying house prices are too high, they will continue to drop. If you wait a year selling price on the average bungalow will likely be $100k lower?

Crikey
Guest
Crikey
3 years 7 months ago
@raggedyrenter and Moldcity About those used house salespeople that urge sellers to unite and remind them they don’t have to sell.. yes it would make most sense for them to want sales income at whatever price the market wants to bear. However, I think they are fighting to keep the “Dumb Money” in the market. As soon as it becomes painfully obvious to even the dumbest segment of RE speculators that it will not be a good time to put money into the local RE market for many years, that proportion of buyers will start to dry up. Not only… Read more »
Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...
3 years 7 months ago
Here is an update on “The Kimpton” in North Van. This was a featured condo on VCI that had put up a sign with their “$100,000 Price Drop Guarantee”. The new sign states to bring your offer and their are only 5 units left. I don’t remember when this was put up, but it hasn’t changed and 5 units are apparently still for sale. There was a private sale in the building (V97211) that was originally listed at $739k on Sep 16. The seller dropped his price to $699k and it now shows as sold for $670k. A $69k (9.3%)… Read more »
gokou3
Guest
gokou3
3 years 7 months ago

RE #17:
“However, I think they are fighting to keep the “Dumb Money” in the market. As soon as it becomes painfully obvious to even the dumbest segment of RE speculators that it will not be a good time to put money into the local RE market for many years, that proportion of buyers will start to dry up. ”

Agree. It may be obvious to many of us reading this blog that the market is falling, but to the masses (read: majority) the market is still stable / mildly positive.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3
3 years 7 months ago

Re #10:

“One of the things we learn as skeptics of the great Canadian housing boom is how seemingly unsustainable market dynamics can go on longer than one ever imagines.”

As economist Keynes said, Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Of course, most of us don’t have the means to short the RE market, so solvency is not a problem.

VMD
Member
3 years 7 months ago

From comment #107 on garth’s site today:
“While it is still early in the year, sales show a 35% year over year drop in January, and a month over month drop of 49%”

FVREB STATS – as of January 10, 2013
6 of 22 Working Days
JANUARY 2013 Listings 656 Sales 124
DECEMBER 2012 Listings 363 Sales 244
JANUARY 2012 Listings 731 Sales 191

painted turtle
Guest
painted turtle
3 years 7 months ago

Let’s keep in mind some realtors are also speculators.
They need some time and a few greater fools to unload before the collapse.
Also I am wondering in which ways they have shared interests with developers. The panic mode is not in the interest of realtors for the time being, it seems, but it will come.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3
3 years 7 months ago

Re #21:

I am sure the dark side will spin it as “xx% increase m/m!”

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 7 months ago

…..its not about the comfort of sellers, it’s about not scaring away buyers. You can bet realtors are trying to talk sellers into lowering their listing price so they can get their commission and move on…..

I think you’re giving them too much credit. The reason they don’t want to admit to lower prices is that they’re all trying to dump their own overleveraged holdings before the Tsunami comes ashore.

PCinWA
Member
PCinWA
3 years 7 months ago

Per VHB’s posts the last three years:

01/10/11 Inventory: 9863 Months of Inventory: 6.36
01/09/12 Inventory: 11582 Months of Inventory: 9.07
01/09/13 Inventory: 12466 Months of Inventory: 11.37

Inventory is up 7.6% year-over-year, and months of inventory is up 25.4% year-over-year (since sales have slowed).

2013 is going to be ugly…

Brian
Guest
3 years 7 months ago

But what if you HAVE to move? Or get divorced? Or have overextended yourself buying luxury goods you don’t need and can’t afford and just lost our job? Realtors are now spinning things every which way.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 7 months ago

December 2012 Year End Housing Market Update, ft. your REBGV Comedian in Chief Eugene Klein.

My favourite quote: “And began a modest decline in the later half of the year.” Which is totally contradicted by what is shown on the graph!

By the way, Whistler condos took a 10% dive in 2012… not news but still ouch!

VMD
Member
3 years 7 months ago
[Maclean’s on Tiff Macklem: End of household debt binge will leave $50bn gap in the economy] 1/10/2013 “Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem, the favourite candidate to replace Governor Mark Carney when he takes off for England in the Spring, is speaking right now at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont. Below is the integral text of his remarks, and here are a few pointers: – We can’t count on the housing market and overstretched consumers to keep propelling economic growth. – Eliminating Canadians’ private net debt alone would leave a $50bn gap in the economy. – What’s going to… Read more »
Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 7 months ago

“By the way, Whistler condos took a 10% dive in 2012… not news but still ouch!”

Anybody know the current MOI for Whistler condos -or even better, some sort of average throughout the year?

RaggedyRenter
Member
RaggedyRenter
3 years 7 months ago
If they don’t want to spook current buyers, the lie they should have tell would be “yes there was a correction but it is over, outlook is rosy, the sellers expectation has realigned and now is a good chance to pick up property for less than what you would pay 6 months ago and build your equity.” They need to consistently send this message instead of the mixed message of denial we’ve seen. If I am a seller why would I trust a realtor who ask me to cut list price when her association’s economist recommended otherwise? @VMD As much… Read more »
chilled
Member
chilled
3 years 7 months ago

Brian Says:
January 10th, 2013 at 2:29 pm

“But what if you HAVE to move? Or get divorced? Or have overextended yourself buying luxury goods you don’t need and can’t afford and just lost our job? ………..”

Or had a couple successive crop failures due to an infestation or police raid??

No Noise
Guest
No Noise
3 years 7 months ago

@#19 Goukou3

In that free rag 24 Hours they did a poll yesterday of 3 things which readers think would happen in 2013 including whether real estate values would drop – only 50% of responders agreed. Very unscientific poll I’m sure but shocking if 50% of locals are still drunk on the kool-aid..

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop
3 years 7 months ago
“Buyers are waiting for that big decrease to happen but I think if they’re going to keep waiting for that, chances are they aren’t going to see it,” said Todd Talbot, realtor and host of W Network’s Love It or List It Vancouver. That’s because industry experts say some sellers aren’t interested in making significant price reductions, and are taking their homes off the market. “Some sellers”, how about the rest that DO list….don’t they determine the market? “They don’t have to sell,” said Brendon Ogmundson, an economist with the BC Real Estate Association. That would include everyone in Vancouver… Read more »
Yalie
Guest
Yalie
3 years 7 months ago

Well, apparently we don’t have to worry about a “hard crash” any more…

Canada’s housing market: Expect soft landing, not hard crash

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/insight/canada-housing-market-expect-soft-landing-not-hard-163039553.html

The article is hard to fault, as it cites a number of unbiased, objective sources:

CMHC
CIBC
BMO
Royal Lepage
TD

crashcow
Member
3 years 7 months ago

Too early to draw conclusions, but this year is shaping up to be very interesting:

– inventory is rising faster than the record-setting pace of Jan ’12
– MOI is now 11.4 vs. 9.1 in Jan ’12
– Crash curve graph shows Van is falling faster than any US city (http://vancouverpricedrop.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/graph.jpg)

hat tip b5baxter, PCinWA, observer

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop
3 years 7 months ago
WASHINGTON — Federal regulators for the first time are laying out rules aimed at ensuring that mortgage borrowers can afford to repay the loans they take out. The rules being unveiled Thursday by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau impose a range of obligations and restrictions on lenders, including bans on the risky “interest-only” and “no documentation” loans that helped inflate the housing bubble. Lenders will be required to verify and inspect borrowers’ financial records. The rules discourage them from saddling borrowers with total debt payments totaling more than 43 percent of the person’s annual income. That includes existing debts like… Read more »
paulb
Member
3 years 7 months ago

New Listings 210
Price Changes 49
Sold Listings 47
TI:12565

http://www.paulboenisch.com

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 7 months ago
Jan-2013	
Total days	21
Days elapsed so far	7
Weekends / holidays	3
Days missing	0
Days remaining	14
7 Day Moving Average: Sales	49
7 Day Moving Average: Listings	228
SALES	
Sales so far	393
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	692
Projected month end total	1085
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	1546
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	3195
Projected month end total	4741
Sell-list so far	25.4%
Projected month-end sell-list	22.9%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of Jan 10, 2013	12565
MoI at this sales pace	11.58
VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 7 months ago

2013

2-Jan	96	178	53.9%
3-Jan	50	227	22.0%
4-Jan	33	211	15.6%
5-Jan			
6-Jan			
7-Jan	63	254	24.8%
8-Jan	70	245	28.6%
9-Jan	34	221	15.4%
10-Jan	47	210	22.4%

2012

3-Jan	45	259	17.4%
4-Jan	65	288	22.6%
5-Jan	30	231	13.0%
6-Jan	76	217	35.0%
7-Jan			
8-Jan			
9-Jan	43	376	11.4%
10-Jan	94	351	26.8%
11-Jan	59	266	22.2%
12-Jan	48	232	20.7%
13-Jan	55	218	25.2%

2011

4-Jan	88	267	33.0%
5-Jan	76	250	30.4%
6-Jan	40	165	24.2%
7-Jan	86	177	48.6%
8-Jan			
9-Jan			
10-Jan	98	266	36.8%
11-Jan	44	261	16.9%
12-Jan	73	186	39.2%
13-Jan	74	200	37.0%
14-Jan	58	171	33.9%

Average sales over first 7 workdays:

2013: 56
2012: 59
2011: 72

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 7 months ago

All’s quiet on the Western Front. Is it really true that Umberto has sold the Il Giardino site to a condo developer?

yvr2zrh
Member
3 years 7 months ago

Regarding the Il Giardino site – the property taxes alone on that site make it extremely expensive to run a business at. (it’s in the multiple 10’000’s per year) I always wondered how long that could go on for. Look at the block next door on Pacific where all the restaurants there for the past 7 years have gone bankrupt and now it is empty. The block with Il Giardino is prime for development of some type so if I was him – I would do it.

yvr2zrh
Member
3 years 7 months ago
I’m just asking but – – does it appear that the listings have slowed? We have barely had any 300 days and definitely no 400 days yet. Are we talking a 20-30% decrease in listings pace? How do we compare against 2009? I don’t have my model up and running at this point but may get it going again next week so any thoughts would be helpful. We should all take note however that one of the most relevant pictures shown right now is the pace of decline of the market from peak in the first 6 months. It is… Read more »
Joe Blow
Guest
Joe Blow
3 years 7 months ago
The guy is just pain wrong. “People don’t have to sell”. Right, you’re paying the mortgage at boom valuations and you keep seeing your property value drop but you just decide to keep paying hoping for an increase in the future. One problem, this bubble isn’t related to correction in the condo market, its connected directly to the true state of the economy. It won’t be long before the drop in value correlates with a huge slow-down in the economy. When people are unable to pay their mortgage, and the choice is sell extremely low or default and lose everything,… Read more »
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