FFFA! New Year, Peak & Crash.

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all.  This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  The first one of 2013!

Lets get to the links:

REBGV HPI: peak down this much
Here’s the press release
Hottest property values dip in 2012
Real Estate boom meet Dot Com Crash
Jesse wins the 2012 prediction contest
Here’s the 2013 prediction contest
Why housing prices aren’t coming back
Whistler condos down 39% over 5 years
Dec 2012 Condo battle map
Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

*Just a reminder: Registration is open over at the Vancouver Peak Forum, but you must leave a human comment within 2 days of registering or your account will be automatically deleted.  This policy helps us keep the board purged of spammer accounts.  Thanks for your understanding!

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Waiting to exhale
Guest
Waiting to exhale
3 years 10 months ago
In the past few days there has been an increased amount of reporting by MSM on the Vancouver RE market. I realize that this is the result of the release of month end stats but what I find interesting is the different message being drummed. National outlets are definately bearish when it comes to Vancouver RE while local MSM outlets are somewhat bullish. I can’t remember a time when Cam and Tsur were featured so many times to provide their “expert economical analysis of local real estate”. The local real estate boards/industry must be pleading hard to create their spin… Read more »
VMD
Member
3 years 10 months ago

Battle of Vancouver: SFH Front – Dec/12 Map update complete
– As predicted in November, Bear Forces successfully invaded North Vancouver and Burnaby East
– Bear Forces also liberated Burnaby North and Tsawwassen.
– Bear Forces had a major tank build-up in South Surrey/White Rock
– The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Van East & Burnaby South.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

“But while cyclical ups and downs in the housing market are to be expected, my forecast is not simply for a cyclical downturn. Rather, I see a long-term fall in home prices that will not be reversed when the economy picks up.

The key factor is demographics.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

Lots of denial in the comments section of that G&M article.

sammy
Guest
sammy
3 years 10 months ago

Delta Council has approved a 37 storey condo tower for Scott Road and 80th. It’s going to be the tallest building in Delta.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Delta+approves+storey+highrise+bring+density+Scott+Road/7773412/story.html

Meanwhile, the Vancouver Sun is reporting that unemployment in Canada has just hit a 4 year low. They are also headlining on their website a real estate booster piece about luxury properties on Belmont Avenue. So I guess the real estate boom is still on over at the good ole Vancouver Sun.

patriotz
Member
3 years 10 months ago

“Meanwhile, the Vancouver Sun is reporting that unemployment in Canada has just hit a 4 year low.”

As did US unemployment in late 2006/early 2007.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High
3 years 10 months ago
sammy Says: January 4th, 2013 at 6:27 am …Meanwhile, the Vancouver Sun is reporting that unemployment in Canada has just hit a 4 year low… On the other hand, StatsCan labour force statistics have been all over the place in recent years. Using simple comparison with relatively smooth US numbers, the Canadian numbers seem to have error bar of something like +/-100%. It’s almost like the statisticians have some sort of operator error when they prepare the spreadsheet – summing changes from the wrong column or missing ranges of the data. Here is one account from earlier in the year… Read more »
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
3 years 10 months ago

‘The Thirties Grind’ blog girl on Global News with “Absurd Vancouver Properties of 2012 wrap up”.

Entertaining piece.

http://thethirtiesgrind.com/2013/01/02/absurd-vancouver-properties-of-2012-wrap-up-on-global-bcs-morning-news/

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 10 months ago

Five year bond hits 1.50%. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GCAN5YR:IND That’s still super low, but 25 bps higher than a month ago.

real_professional
Member
3 years 10 months ago

@VMD – my hat off to you.

I love the battle of Vancouver map – any plans for a SFH version!!

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it
3 years 10 months ago

#5 Sammy
“Delta Council has approved a 37 storey condo tower for Scott Road and 80th. It’s going to be the tallest building in Delta”

Is it true Delta was built on a delta?? Delta will be the next great tourist destination after the big earthquake hits. They’ll be coming long and far to see the 37 flr Leaning Tower of Delta.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

….So I guess the real estate boom is still on over at the good ole Vancouver Sun…..

You actually read the Sun? Wow.

The local RE industry flyers have the same number of RE ads but more news, they’re free, and they’re not pretending to be real newspapers.

Girlbear
Guest
Girlbear
3 years 10 months ago

Interesting map attached. Put together by Atlas Moving Company – shows patterns of migration. Includes Canada!

Orange = outgoing states/provinces

http://www.businessinsider.com/atlas-vans-moving-map-2013-1

sammy
Guest
sammy
3 years 10 months ago
The contrast between the Globe and Mail and the Vancouver Sun is quite stunning. In the Vancouver Sun right now: Metro Vancouver suburbs continue to attract home buyers at ‘slow and steady’ pace Derek Love is gearing up for another busy year selling real estate in suburban Vancouver. After a brief lull in business in the latter half of 2012, when properties lingered on the market a little longer than usual and prices stalled, activity is once again starting to pick up. “We’ve noticed, in the month of December, a lot more confidence. We are getting calls for from all… Read more »
patriotz
Member
3 years 10 months ago

“We didn’t really have that big increase,” said Love, noting $600,000 to $800,000 will still buy “a really good family home — well kept, basement suite, nice yard, quiet street…in Tri-Cities

Kind of says it doesn’t it. A price that used to be considered luxury gets you into a nondescript house with someone living in your basement in a nondescript suburb.

Meanwhile in Seattle you get this for 700K:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/743-NE-56th-St-Seattle-WA-98105/48768779_zpid/

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
3 years 10 months ago

“Interesting map attached.”

The numbers are blurry, but it appears to be 269/169 or 61.4% outbound for BC. Just behind Ontario and ahead of any American state. Canadians appear to be more mobile than American at the moment, but wait until underwater mortgages become common here too.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
3 years 10 months ago

“No economic growth expected in Vancouver in next two years.
Low condo prices and slowing Chinese economy to blame.

http://www.news1130.com/2013/01/03/no-economic-growth-expected-in-vancouver-in-next-two-years/

Really? Low prices? 😛

The Gimp
Guest
The Gimp
3 years 10 months ago

@patriotz

….Meanwhile in Seattle you get this for 700K:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/743-NE-56th-St-Seattle-WA-98105/48768779_zpid/…..

sure, if you don’t mind living two houses away from the I5

Crasher
Guest
Crasher
3 years 10 months ago

VHB #9

It’s becoming prety obvious that our market is set to correct anyway, but there is nothing that would crush prices more than higher mortgage rates. There are all kinds of suptle hints on BNN today that rates are about to begin a slow reversal.

The FED Finance Committee is puting pressure on Bernanke to ease up on buying mortgage backed securities and treasury bonds. The bond market is telling us that the private sector has already stopped dancing to his tune, and rates will go higher…just in time with our usual spring listings surge.

Enjoy the ride folks.

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 10 months ago
Just posted a new ‘renewal gap’ graph in the forum. The picture is here: http://vancouverpeak.com/attachment.php?aid=5 The explanation and data are here: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Renewal-Gap?pid=131#pid131 Basically, the renewal gap shows what the mortgage rate today is compared to 5 years ago. So, people coming up for renewal might be able to afford a bigger mortgage even with the same monthly payment if interest rates are lower now than 5 years ago. This is mostly a demand indicator for the move-up market. Through 2012, the renewal gap grew a lot to a massive 260bps in December. This reflects the fact that interest rates in… Read more »
vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 10 months ago

oooh Bard Lamb is gonna be on BNN…..

spinning the Toronto market no doubt, these guys are working hard this week trying to fight these disastrous headlines 🙂

gordholio
Member
3 years 10 months ago
“I am now convinced that we will never hear the end of housing bubble speak. The premise is now as firmly entrenched in popular consciousness as carbon emissions and TMZ. It has taken the form of idolatry in the blogosphere, where any countervailing narrative is demonized. It has catapulted university dropouts into media darlings because of a hackneyed webpage and an opinion. It has been tarted up by so-called experts who predict impending doom year after year, despite being completely wrong every time.” These words of wisdom and much more, from Chief Scumbag and Head Liar Cameron Muir (and as… Read more »
jesse
Member
3 years 10 months ago

@gordholio, few around here have been around the RE blogosphere to remember that one Cam Muir, then of another employer, tried his hand in the comments section of one of the local blogs. One of the more prolific commenters back then ran him out of town.

Was that on VCI or was it on van-housing? Anyone remember? I sure hope we can find these comments and re-post them. Sounds like Cam Muir has an ax to grind with sites like this one.

“Let’s put this on the internet.”
“No, we have to reach people whose opinions actually matter.”
– Bart Simpson

vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 10 months ago

Brad Lamb

-Flaherty declared war on the real estate business

-if gas was 35% more expensive no one would buy it, which is the increase in cost to buy a place with the decrease in mortgages from 40 year to 25 year made.
(doesn’t mention that those decreases in amortization are bring THE F’ING HOUSE PRICES DOWN AND SAVING BUYERS THOUSAND OVER THE YEARS…WTF)

-no where near a bubble

-drops only happen during recession

-there will be a drop at some point in the future, but not now

I so want that guy to eat his words…

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
3 years 10 months ago

Re: Cam Muir. Here’s some interesting quotes from bygone days;

“Beyond all expectations, Vancouver’s housing market is hitting record sales activities and prices late in 2009, something Muir said is not sustainable because interest rates have nowhere to go but up.”

“The same sudden increase in affordability on the Coast market caused a frenetic amount of activity once fear from the crisis wore off. But that activity cannot last, Muir argued, calling it “irrational exuberance.”

“How high can prices go before consumers reach a limit on what they can pay?”

Kamloops Daily News, Nov, 2009.
http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/article/20091105/KAMLOOPS0101/311059963/-1/KAMLOOPS01/kamloops-firm-in-frothy-bc-real-estate-market

Domocrass
Guest
Domocrass
3 years 10 months ago

My sense is that new listings are still asking peak prices. Slow sales should continue.

VanRant
Guest
VanRant
3 years 10 months ago

Cam Good has been very quite lately and CNY is fast approaching. Wondering when is he going to fire up the yellow helo and invite his RE friends for a flyover. Better contact Global soon.

VMD
Member
3 years 10 months ago

@25
Before becoming a small, slimy creature who lived in a cave at the roots of Whistlery Mountains, Callum was once a pure-hearted hobbit named Smuirgol. Until he became corrupted by the Bling.

Atomic Frog
Guest
Atomic Frog
3 years 10 months ago
Here is the no of people who are employed in Metro Van for the last 6 months (in ,000) both full time and part time combined Jun 1,290.8 Jul 1,298.1 Aug 1,297.3 Sep 1,291.8 Oct 1,284.2 Nov 1,273.8 Dec 1,268.1 A quick scan of the # reveals that there are approx 30K people less in the workforce in Metro Van by Dec compare to Jul Could this drop due to an increase in net loss that come from inter-provincial migration? The funny thing is that the unemployment rate in the Metro Van region is relatively flat in the same time… Read more »
gokou3
Guest
gokou3
3 years 10 months ago

Re: #29 Atomic Frog
Thanks for the data, but I don’t think it would lead to any conclusion based on these figures alone. For example, the variation can be seasonal. Not hard to imagine more people employed for the summer tourist season.

YLTNboomerang
Member
3 years 10 months ago

I think we will continue to see a difference in reporting at the national level versus local level because of what the readers want to hear:

National:
Readers are scared of a crash and are pacified by reading that only in Vancouver and perhaps Toronto will it be bad…the rest of the country will only mildly correct – scapegoat Vancouver

Local:
Readers are scared of a crash and want to hear that it is OK in Vancouver and that we will ride with the national average with only a slight decline. Quote the pumpers.

Yalie
Guest
Yalie
3 years 10 months ago

Local:
Readers are scared of a crash and want to hear that it is OK in Vancouver and that we will ride with the national average with only a slight decline. Quote the pumpers.

And once it’s obvious that the city is crashing, local homeowners with just chant this to themselves: “Vancouver may be crashing but fortunately not my house. It is a special. It is a beautiful and unique snowflake. Everyone wants to live in it. It only goes up in value.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4X2AvfSTi6Q

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

How come we can’t preview posts?

Is it an easy fix?

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 10 months ago

News from the front line…

3963 w22nd
sold 1.805M feb 24, 2012
sold 1.58M jan 2, 2013

This one is ouch!

Troll
Guest
Troll
3 years 10 months ago

Today’s sales are also ouch, sub 40. New listings not so much, certainly no signs of a rush for the exits. I am very curious to see how this spring unfolds, whether we see any kind of rebound from a dismal 2012.

paulb
Member
3 years 10 months ago

New Listings 211
Price Changes 61
Sold Listings 33

TI:12098

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 10 months ago
Wow, after reading through the comments in the G&M article I am more confident then ever this market is going to get very ugly quickly. People seem to have no clue what risks lie ahead. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/comments/ I like this one, a reasonable posting saying the gains we’ve seen are history and maybe prices just hold steady for the next 10 years as a best case scenario. “ped xing 10:20 AM on January 4, 2013 These comments show how myopic humans are. The gist of the booster argument is that “housing prices have been strong as long as I can remember;… Read more »
VMD
Member
3 years 10 months ago

Happy 12 k everyone! 10 days earlier than last year.

Girlbear
Guest
Girlbear
3 years 10 months ago

@Groudhog

I think a lot of these comments on G&M article are Toronto. It hasn’t quite hit there yet. Was there a couple of weeks ago and only a few are starting to think there could be trouble coming. And these are mostly finance guys…not your average Joe.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

Just opened the assessment letter, another year of increasing dangerously: up $500,000+ (Van West). This year, not rushing out to buy those Mercedes:

http://www.mercedes-benz.ca/content/canada/mpc/mpc_canada_website/en/home_mpc/passengercars/home/new_cars/models/sl-class/r231.flash.html

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 10 months ago

@ #118 The Gimp

Take a look at the houses all around that area before dismissing the one right next to the I-5. It’s actually a pretty nice area right around the University. I have a relative that purchased a house in 2004 for 450K right around there, today the Zillow estimate is….450K. The same house in the slums of East Van would list now for $1.2m or so.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 10 months ago

The latest Macleans edition: “Inside the great real estate crash of 2013” on the cover page.

Can’t get more bearish like that!

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 10 months ago

@Girlbear

You’re probably right. It’s crazy how people still stand by all the typical arguments:

-RE is local
-Canada best country to live in
-Not building anymore land
-RE always goes up in the long-run

And heres one comment to top it off:

“In real terms, the value of desirable real estate will always hold its value. Housing prices reflect the fact that there’s nowhere else to put your money these days.

Nothing else, NOTHING ELSE is as safe as well-located bricks and mortar on land.
For utility
for capital appreciation
for tax savings
for dividends (rents)
for safe wealth storage NOTHING can compare.

The downside is portability.
So what ?
Who’s leaving ?”

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 10 months ago

Richmond today:
33 new listings
5 price drops
1 sold

Lol…

addair
Guest
addair
3 years 10 months ago

Wow, 33 sales.

The lineup of idiots is getting shorter and shorter.

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 10 months ago
This is based just on the 3 days in January–the 31st of December also fits in the 7 day window but I discarded it for this purpose since end of December numbers are so wonky. Jan-2013 Total days 21 Days elapsed so far 3 Weekends / holidays 1 Days missing 0 Days remaining 18 7 Day Moving Average: Sales 60 7 Day Moving Average: Listings 205 SALES Sales so far 179 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1074 Projected month end total 1253 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 616 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 3696… Read more »
addair
Guest
addair
3 years 10 months ago

Who cares if we don’t get some 300 and 400 listing days. If nobody is buying the market is doomed.

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop
3 years 10 months ago
HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 10 months ago

@ Makaya

That MacLean’s cover story is makin me noy-vuss! General interest magazines have a decent record of publishing contrary cover stories at the wrong time.

All the smart people are lined up on the bear side. On the bull side, let’s face it, are a bunch of conflicted dopes. Or old fools. Or people who didn’t like book larnin and ended up in construction (or banking if they were dumb MBA’s).

I still expect a crash, but wouldn’t it be ironic if we all missed something and it didn’t happen?

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 10 months ago

Hi Addair,

the reason I care about inventory growth is that MoI is the best predictor of price drops. MoI is total inventory divided by monthly sales. If you’re right and sales tank, then the denominator shrinks. Good! I say even better if the numerator is exploding at the same time, though.

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