FFFA! New Year, Peak & Crash.

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all.  This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  The first one of 2013!

Lets get to the links:

REBGV HPI: peak down this much
Here’s the press release
Hottest property values dip in 2012
Real Estate boom meet Dot Com Crash
Jesse wins the 2012 prediction contest
Here’s the 2013 prediction contest
Why housing prices aren’t coming back
Whistler condos down 39% over 5 years
Dec 2012 Condo battle map
Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

*Just a reminder: Registration is open over at the Vancouver Peak Forum, but you must leave a human comment within 2 days of registering or your account will be automatically deleted.  This policy helps us keep the board purged of spammer accounts.  Thanks for your understanding!

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Waiting to exhale
Guest
Waiting to exhale

In the past few days there has been an increased amount of reporting by MSM on the Vancouver RE market. I realize that this is the result of the release of month end stats but what I find interesting is the different message being drummed.

National outlets are definately bearish when it comes to Vancouver RE while local MSM outlets are somewhat bullish. I can’t remember a time when Cam and Tsur were featured so many times to provide their “expert economical analysis of local real estate”.

The local real estate boards/industry must be pleading hard to create their spin with local MSM. Their desperation is a clear indication of what is coming in the Spring market.

VMD
Member

Battle of Vancouver: SFH Front – Dec/12 Map update complete
– As predicted in November, Bear Forces successfully invaded North Vancouver and Burnaby East
– Bear Forces also liberated Burnaby North and Tsawwassen.
– Bear Forces had a major tank build-up in South Surrey/White Rock
– The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Van East & Burnaby South.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“But while cyclical ups and downs in the housing market are to be expected, my forecast is not simply for a cyclical downturn. Rather, I see a long-term fall in home prices that will not be reversed when the economy picks up.

The key factor is demographics.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Lots of denial in the comments section of that G&M article.

sammy
Guest
sammy

Delta Council has approved a 37 storey condo tower for Scott Road and 80th. It’s going to be the tallest building in Delta.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Delta+approves+storey+highrise+bring+density+Scott+Road/7773412/story.html

Meanwhile, the Vancouver Sun is reporting that unemployment in Canada has just hit a 4 year low. They are also headlining on their website a real estate booster piece about luxury properties on Belmont Avenue. So I guess the real estate boom is still on over at the good ole Vancouver Sun.

patriotz
Member

“Meanwhile, the Vancouver Sun is reporting that unemployment in Canada has just hit a 4 year low.”

As did US unemployment in late 2006/early 2007.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High
sammy Says: January 4th, 2013 at 6:27 am …Meanwhile, the Vancouver Sun is reporting that unemployment in Canada has just hit a 4 year low… On the other hand, StatsCan labour force statistics have been all over the place in recent years. Using simple comparison with relatively smooth US numbers, the Canadian numbers seem to have error bar of something like +/-100%. It’s almost like the statisticians have some sort of operator error when they prepare the spreadsheet – summing changes from the wrong column or missing ranges of the data. Here is one account from earlier in the year about the incompetence of StatsCan on this survey. It makes one wonder if StatsCan workers are high when they prepare these releases. Dale Tue, May 15, 12 at 10:42 AM The unemployment rate in Nanaimo was not 16.3% a year… Read more »
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

‘The Thirties Grind’ blog girl on Global News with “Absurd Vancouver Properties of 2012 wrap up”.

Entertaining piece.

http://thethirtiesgrind.com/2013/01/02/absurd-vancouver-properties-of-2012-wrap-up-on-global-bcs-morning-news/

VHB
Member
VHB

Five year bond hits 1.50%. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GCAN5YR:IND That’s still super low, but 25 bps higher than a month ago.

real_professional
Member

@VMD – my hat off to you.

I love the battle of Vancouver map – any plans for a SFH version!!

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it

#5 Sammy
“Delta Council has approved a 37 storey condo tower for Scott Road and 80th. It’s going to be the tallest building in Delta”

Is it true Delta was built on a delta?? Delta will be the next great tourist destination after the big earthquake hits. They’ll be coming long and far to see the 37 flr Leaning Tower of Delta.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

….So I guess the real estate boom is still on over at the good ole Vancouver Sun…..

You actually read the Sun? Wow.

The local RE industry flyers have the same number of RE ads but more news, they’re free, and they’re not pretending to be real newspapers.

Girlbear
Guest
Girlbear

Interesting map attached. Put together by Atlas Moving Company – shows patterns of migration. Includes Canada!

Orange = outgoing states/provinces

http://www.businessinsider.com/atlas-vans-moving-map-2013-1

sammy
Guest
sammy
The contrast between the Globe and Mail and the Vancouver Sun is quite stunning. In the Vancouver Sun right now: Metro Vancouver suburbs continue to attract home buyers at ‘slow and steady’ pace Derek Love is gearing up for another busy year selling real estate in suburban Vancouver. After a brief lull in business in the latter half of 2012, when properties lingered on the market a little longer than usual and prices stalled, activity is once again starting to pick up. “We’ve noticed, in the month of December, a lot more confidence. We are getting calls for from all different types of buyers who are eager and asking questions about homes we’ve had for sale for six months,” said Love… Where property prices in some areas of Vancouver, West Vancouver, Richmond and Burnaby climbed by as much as 30… Read more »
patriotz
Member

“We didn’t really have that big increase,” said Love, noting $600,000 to $800,000 will still buy “a really good family home — well kept, basement suite, nice yard, quiet street…in Tri-Cities

Kind of says it doesn’t it. A price that used to be considered luxury gets you into a nondescript house with someone living in your basement in a nondescript suburb.

Meanwhile in Seattle you get this for 700K:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/743-NE-56th-St-Seattle-WA-98105/48768779_zpid/

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

“Interesting map attached.”

The numbers are blurry, but it appears to be 269/169 or 61.4% outbound for BC. Just behind Ontario and ahead of any American state. Canadians appear to be more mobile than American at the moment, but wait until underwater mortgages become common here too.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

“No economic growth expected in Vancouver in next two years.
Low condo prices and slowing Chinese economy to blame.

http://www.news1130.com/2013/01/03/no-economic-growth-expected-in-vancouver-in-next-two-years/

Really? Low prices? 😛

The Gimp
Guest
The Gimp

@patriotz

….Meanwhile in Seattle you get this for 700K:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/743-NE-56th-St-Seattle-WA-98105/48768779_zpid/…..

sure, if you don’t mind living two houses away from the I5

Crasher
Guest
Crasher

VHB #9

It’s becoming prety obvious that our market is set to correct anyway, but there is nothing that would crush prices more than higher mortgage rates. There are all kinds of suptle hints on BNN today that rates are about to begin a slow reversal.

The FED Finance Committee is puting pressure on Bernanke to ease up on buying mortgage backed securities and treasury bonds. The bond market is telling us that the private sector has already stopped dancing to his tune, and rates will go higher…just in time with our usual spring listings surge.

Enjoy the ride folks.

VHB
Member
VHB
Just posted a new ‘renewal gap’ graph in the forum. The picture is here: http://vancouverpeak.com/attachment.php?aid=5 The explanation and data are here: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Renewal-Gap?pid=131#pid131 Basically, the renewal gap shows what the mortgage rate today is compared to 5 years ago. So, people coming up for renewal might be able to afford a bigger mortgage even with the same monthly payment if interest rates are lower now than 5 years ago. This is mostly a demand indicator for the move-up market. Through 2012, the renewal gap grew a lot to a massive 260bps in December. This reflects the fact that interest rates in 2007 were big, so those renewing today get a big happy surprise when they renew. To me, this makes it even more remarkable that the market started tanking in 2012. There were lots of people who could afford a bigger… Read more »
vangrl
Member
vangrl

oooh Bard Lamb is gonna be on BNN…..

spinning the Toronto market no doubt, these guys are working hard this week trying to fight these disastrous headlines 🙂

gordholio
Member

“I am now convinced that we will never hear the end of housing bubble speak. The premise is now as firmly entrenched in popular consciousness as carbon emissions and TMZ. It has taken the form of idolatry in the blogosphere, where any countervailing narrative is demonized. It has catapulted university dropouts into media darlings because of a hackneyed webpage and an opinion. It has been tarted up by so-called experts who predict impending doom year after year, despite being completely wrong every time.”

These words of wisdom and much more, from Chief Scumbag and Head Liar Cameron Muir (and as seen in the BCREA November bulletin), can be found here:

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/economics-forecasts-and-presentations/2012-11bulletinarticle.pdf

My apologies if this was already discussed. I saw it for the first time today and couldn’t resist posting it.

jesse
Member

@gordholio, few around here have been around the RE blogosphere to remember that one Cam Muir, then of another employer, tried his hand in the comments section of one of the local blogs. One of the more prolific commenters back then ran him out of town.

Was that on VCI or was it on van-housing? Anyone remember? I sure hope we can find these comments and re-post them. Sounds like Cam Muir has an ax to grind with sites like this one.

“Let’s put this on the internet.”
“No, we have to reach people whose opinions actually matter.”
– Bart Simpson

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Brad Lamb

-Flaherty declared war on the real estate business

-if gas was 35% more expensive no one would buy it, which is the increase in cost to buy a place with the decrease in mortgages from 40 year to 25 year made.
(doesn’t mention that those decreases in amortization are bring THE F’ING HOUSE PRICES DOWN AND SAVING BUYERS THOUSAND OVER THE YEARS…WTF)

-no where near a bubble

-drops only happen during recession

-there will be a drop at some point in the future, but not now

I so want that guy to eat his words…

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Re: Cam Muir. Here’s some interesting quotes from bygone days;

“Beyond all expectations, Vancouver’s housing market is hitting record sales activities and prices late in 2009, something Muir said is not sustainable because interest rates have nowhere to go but up.”

“The same sudden increase in affordability on the Coast market caused a frenetic amount of activity once fear from the crisis wore off. But that activity cannot last, Muir argued, calling it “irrational exuberance.”

“How high can prices go before consumers reach a limit on what they can pay?”

Kamloops Daily News, Nov, 2009.
http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/article/20091105/KAMLOOPS0101/311059963/-1/KAMLOOPS01/kamloops-firm-in-frothy-bc-real-estate-market

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