FFFA! What’s happening to Vancouver Real Estate?
Hey, it’s Friday!
That means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.
Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
-Lazy admin will add links here soonish.
-
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
January 25th, 2013 at 12:33 am 1
“Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
-Lazy admin will add links here soonish.”
This already made my weekend
.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:56 am 2
Don’t blame Boomers if housing goes bust
The headline is wrong, the article is arguing that demographics won’t necessarily cause a RE bust in Canada.
Well sort of – RE busts are all caused by prices out of proportion to rents and incomes and other factors just grease the skids. But he makes no mention of this of course.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 5:22 am 3
Inventory:
January 24, 2011: 10875
January 24, 2012: 13084 (+20.3%)
January 24, 2013: 13806 (+5.5%)
I’m going off of memory, but I think the year-over-year growth in inventory has been accelerating somewhat through January.
PaulB or VHB, is there somewhere where a table of historical daily inventory, new listings, etc., is available to folks like me to download and play around with? Thanks!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 8:16 am 4
“The Atlantic” reports on Canada’s bubble:
“The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in … Canada?”
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/the-biggest-housing-bubble-in-the-world-is-in-canada/272499/
“How real is Canada’s housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country’s.”
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January 25th, 2013 at 9:07 am 5
Home sellers are about to find out that it doesn’t matter what they think, the only thing the matters is what the person your selling to thinks as they set the PRICE.
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January 25th, 2013 at 10:23 am 6
You ready for this?
Goerge Soros says Int Rates Will Spike This Year.
http:www.cnbc.com/id/100401701
Not that I believe it, but been hearing a lot of crap from Tsur and Cam that we would need a catalyst for our market to crash. Anyway, if you want a catalyst to absolutely destroy RE, can’t think of anything more devastating than higher mortgage rates.
When Soros speaks I listen…and he didn’t just say that rates would rise, but SPIKE!
Might have to adjust my entire investment strategy.
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January 25th, 2013 at 10:36 am 7
@ Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE
But many people are doubting that the US economy is truly on the mend. Many people on Zero Hedge say this is a faked recovery. If the recovery isn’t real, then interest rates can’t rise.
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January 25th, 2013 at 10:48 am 8
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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January 25th, 2013 at 10:55 am 9
“Many people on Zero Hedge say this is a faked recovery”
Shocking! You mean people on Zero Hedge are conspiracy-theorist gold-hoarders?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 11:30 am 10
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/01/24/apple-bubble-price-target/1862419/
“Yet investors might be frustrated that the analysts are taking down price targets now after the stock has already been pummeled instead of warning investors ahead of time. “There’s a fair amount of herd mentality in the analyst community,” Mian says. “That’s why they (analysts) are usually behind the curve.”
Replace ‘investors’ with ‘home buyers’ and ‘stock’ with ‘houses’ then publish it 2 years from now in Vancouver Sun. Tsur and Muir will be sacrificed by REBGV.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 11:30 am 11
Times when developers console realtors, or in other words bullshitahellia…
Metro Vancouver isn’t in a real estate bubble and markets will remain stable in 2013 – as long as interest rates remain low, immigration targets are met and Europe’s economy doesn’t melt down, a panel of real estate developers told more than 1,100 real estate professionals, business leaders and B.C. politicians on Thursday.
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Panel+rosy+about+Vancouver+future/7871877/story.html#ixzz2J17rFABU
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 11:34 am 12
Anonymous #7
I cannot think of anyone more influential than George Soros even if he is a manipulator, and he cites Europe as more of a cause for the coming rate spike than the US.
Heard similar concerns about Europe and global money printing from Alex Jurshevski on BNN this morning. He also thinks the US housing recovery is premature and is likely to revert back to the down trend.
Lets face it’s a no-brainer that rates will eventually have to go up, but to get a sudden rate spike at a time when the market is already heading down could be a disaster of unprecedented proportions.
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January 25th, 2013 at 11:41 am 13
On the other side – you may want to read Gary Shilling – exceptional economist and bond bull. He has a great track record (long-term calls), and he sees rates going nowhere
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 11:42 am 14
@#4 southseacompany
That’s the best quick overview of Canada/Vancouver’s RE situation I’ve read in a while. And a 5 year old Maclean’s link which I had never read from the comments section reminds me of what is so vital for Canada’s politicians to realize:
http://www.macleans.ca/canada/national/article.jsp?content=20080507_26032_26032
not to mention:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9815998/Chinas-Communist-party-cadres-launch-property-fire-sale.html
The problem is that most politicians are in the pockets of corrupt (or not corrupt) wealthy foreigners wishing to safe-haven their money in Vancouver one way or another – just as self-interested home owners but more likely as promotors of the bubble continuing as long as it can so that the political system, and their careers, will remain status quo.
If you are middle class like me and RE affordability is at the top of your list (like me) you will find a political party provincially this May (and federally in 3 years) who will address this issue and vote for them. There’s a lot I dont like about the federal Conservatives but at least they can be tough on crime (prevent criminals from immigrating) and appear to be wanting more middle class taxpayers with skills we need to immigrate here:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-to-play-matchmaker-for-foreign-workers/article6840232/
rather than rich corrupt plutocrats who set up satellite families and rape our generous healthcare and education systems like “the blood sucking vampire squids” they are – to use a term by the wonderful writer Matt Taibbi.
Don’t get me wrong, our current RE bubble is bursting, and if George Soros is right, sooner than later – but you and I and our kids are competing unfairly for RE, education, and jobs – a piece of the pie – with those who we do not need here, for decades to come until some brave leader does something about it. The Australians are way ahead of us on this one already. Many, many countries in the world have strict rules regarding foreign investment which prices citizens out.
On this issue, with respect to the upcoming BC election in May, I think who NOT to vote for this May is becoming more and more obvious every day..
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 12:14 pm 15
Can’t wait to post the stats for the week. As of yesterday, we are trending way way down compared to last year, getting worse compared to last week, and the rate of inventory increase is also going up. If we see sales already stalling at this point, we are in trouble.
However – - I’m still betting we will see a modest pickup which has to occur due to demographics.
What I want to know is how bad it will get before the UDI people who are spewing and spinning will change their tune. I think it would be a serious breath of fresh air if Vancouver was a place to live and the main topic of life is not the value of one’s house.
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January 25th, 2013 at 12:19 pm 16
“The Atlantic” reports on Canada’s bubble:
“The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in … Canada?”
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/the-biggest-housing-bubble-in-the-world-is-in-canada/272499/
“How real is Canada’s housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country’s.”
Congratulations to Jim Flaherty and Mark Carney – great job guys. A special thanks to Jason Kenney as well.
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January 25th, 2013 at 12:20 pm 17
@#4 southseacompany
oops I failed to attach the best link from the article you posted which supports my theory:
http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/economy/rich-chinese-leaving-the-country-and-why-that-matters-to-the-economy.html
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January 25th, 2013 at 12:20 pm 18
@VDTF
“Shocking! You mean people on Zero Hedge are conspiracy-theorist gold-hoarders?”
How many of their conspiracy theories need to become conspiracy facts before you lend any weight to them?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 12:36 pm 19
Fraser Valley Jan 1-25 sales 2013 vs 2012
430 vs 598 ( -28% YoY )
Source: Garth’s site
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January 25th, 2013 at 1:00 pm 20
What happened to Cam “Yellow Helicopter” Good?
He hasn’t updated his twitter since October: https://twitter.com/CamGood
His website, which was promoted as connecting local sellers with HAM is “under construction”: http://thekey.com/
And selling to China has been de-prioritized.
Looks like he’s trying to “pivot” his business strategy. Maybe locals aren’t as stupid as we all assumed?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 1:05 pm 21
“Home sellers are about to find out that it doesn’t matter what they think, the only thing the matters is what the person your selling to thinks as they set the PRICE.”
Funny how the tide turns.. :
Reverse it: Home buyers will find out that it doesn’t matter what they think, the only thing the matters is what the person selling thinks as they set the PRICE,and make the final decision.
This is what it sounded about a year ago.. or less
Not that long ago at all.
Oooh how things can change so quickly, mid-flight, in a yellow submarine..oops, helicopter.
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January 25th, 2013 at 1:05 pm 22
@#18, Groundhog said:
How many of their conspiracy theories need to become conspiracy facts before you lend any weight to them?
You can always give them weight; it’s the direction of effect that changes. If they’re usually wrong, they act as contrarian indicators of reality; if usually right, they’re semi-accurate models of a complex system. About even and they’re no better than coin flips. What’s their cumulative accuracy rate?
Anyone want to do the math to predict the probability of an event based off their previous results? Could be done either for specific posters (probably much easier) or the site as a whole. Could be fun!
I think a prediction bank would be very illuminating.
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January 25th, 2013 at 1:08 pm 23
rails #13
One notable comment I found from Gary Shilling was that his investment themes could “change dramatically” as the year progresses.
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January 25th, 2013 at 1:11 pm 24
Ming Pao (Major Chinese newspaper) reported today: “China’s New Strict Anti-money-laundering measures deterring potential Vancouver RE Buyers from Wiring Money Overseas ”
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http://www.mingpaotor.com/htm/News/20130125/tbc2.htm?m=0
(On my cell now so I’ll be concise)
- The sentiment among the wealthy people in BeiJing whose income source was questionable, is that of anxiety and panic. They want to wire the (illicit) money overseas, but they fear the government’s current tough anti-money-laundering measures may track them down.
- It has been a popular practice for people to enlist their friends and families to help wire large sums of money overseas, circumventing the $50000//person/year limit. However, recently there have been cases where the government is strictly enforcing anti money laundering measures, banning all those involved from wiring any money overseas for many years.
Businessmen and higher ranking party officials have other ways to wire out money, however.
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January 25th, 2013 at 1:14 pm 25
“How many of their conspiracy theories need to become conspiracy facts before you lend any weight to them?”
You’d be foolish to either believe everything they say or deny everything they say without taking each point on its own evidence and merits. But you only have to read some of the comments there to understand that there’s a strong bias towards “doomers”.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 1:51 pm 26
@#24 VMD
Thanks VMD. And we’ve all learned through the Economist how Macau is used to get money out of China:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_wYFfE_R0w
Here’s the other pertinent link which came along with yours:
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mingpaotor.com%2Fhtm%2FNews%2F20130125%2Ftbc1.htm%3Fm%3D0
Too bad the microsoft translations are so horrible but we get the gist. Now the question is – can the Canadian Government do anything to prevent this illegally laundered money from arriving in Canada? Would they want to do anything?
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:05 pm 27
“Now the question is – can the Canadian Government do anything to prevent this illegally laundered money from arriving in Canada?”
Are you kidding? It’s probably the only thing that has kept BC afloat for the last 2 decades. The Canadian Government is falling over themselves to try to get MORE of the illegally laundered money to arrive in Canada. Immigration basically selling citizenship to “entrepreneurs” is a case in point. While people that could actually contribute something to Canada culturally and economically and LEGALLY flap in the wind.
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:10 pm 28
@Mick Murphy
Don’t forget Private Listing Service (www.pls.ca)
@No Noise
Exactly why would the Canadian government reject foreign money?
Money earned elsewhere enters Canada, it creates a demand on our funny plastic monopoly money, it is spent on housing, goods and services consumption, taxes (sales), creates jobs and thus taxes (income). It is very hard to prove the origin of money is illegal, expensive courts and lawyers ensue, and if it is confiscated it will need to be returned to the foreign government. Much expense with nothing to gain. Ethically this is wrong but you can see why the government won’t do anything unless there’s an widespread outrage/incident.
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:13 pm 29
@27 Beuller
I agree that this is a major reason Vancouver RE is a bubble now – although the Conservatives are obviously trying to decrease public debt/prevent bubble popping before interest rates rise as well as possibly shifting immigration to middle class trades people (although there’s been no elaboration on the plan for the investor immigration program – just that it’s on hold for now).
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:15 pm 30
@ no noise
The article you linked to has met quite a bit of criticism on Chinese forums.
1. The “spring uptick” “news” was the opinions of “several anonymous realtors”
2. Realtor “Liu Yi” quoted in the article was the infamous one who advertised himself as Realtor,Ph.D . He is well known in the online community to be the one writing baseless pump pieces for RE websites and publications. His column is the only one closed to commenting because too many people come to pick apart his “arguments” . But because he is a paid advertiser, he can keep pumping unopposed.
I’m sure some HAM is still around, and some PAM (Panicky Asian Money) will find their way here, but I’d bet this year we’ll have fewer sightings.
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:27 pm 31
@Beuller
Immigration basically selling citizenship to “entrepreneurs” is a case in point. While people that could actually contribute something to Canada culturally and economically and LEGALLY flap in the wind.
Those were Liberal governments in the past, we were the most gullible country on the face of the earth. Our immigration policies are ass-backwards and stupid. Jason Kenney is surgically changing this bit by bit after Conservatives got majority.
He makes it easier for:
1. Student educated in Canadian universities
2. Young professionals with arranged employment
3. People with higher likelihood to be successful (English speaking, university degree, work experience, trades)
4. Young people with start up ideas backed by Canadian investors.
5. High skilled people with PNP.
Pretty much people with higher propensity to become tax-payer rather than tax consumer.
Harder for:
1. “Entrepreneurs”
2. Investors
3. Elderlies
4. Fake permanent resident
5. Lying citizens
6. Bogus PNP
He can’t make wholesale change, he doesn’t have the political capital to do so, but I don’t see anything negative about the incremental changes he made. Of all things they got wrong, I must admit Conservatives did this one right.
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:29 pm 32
Wow VMD 8 downvotes in a few minutes! Liu Yi must have a lot of supporters and you touched a nerve! Or he just ordered Belarus to black-ping your downvotes! HAHAHAHAHAHA one of those 2 measly upvotes was from me of course.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:42 pm 33
I can confirm the presence of a little fresh HAM in town … although the ones I have encountered are actually not interested in real estate.
Although sales are low, it is curious to see fairly anaemic listing activity (although listings don’t include condo completions which would otherwise goose the total). Anyone care to play the title role in the Hardy Boys and the Case of the Lost Listings?
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:43 pm 34
” The Australians are way ahead of us on this one already. Many, many countries in the world have strict rules regarding foreign investment which prices citizens out.”
Australia has a worse bubble than Canada, and just like Canada’s, it’s the result of government policies that promote home ownership and encourage speculation. Its token restrictions on foreign ownership are just a smokescreen. And so are restrictions on foreign ownership everywhere else.
If a country has truly effective measures against RE overvalulation, like Germany, no foreign ownership restrictions are needed.
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:48 pm 35
@Ham Solo
“Anyone care to play the title role in the Hardy Boys and the Case of the Lost Listings?”
Could simply be that we’re already at a high inventory level…And besides, inventory has been increasing at a high rate compared to other years anyways as was posted yesterday in the updated inventory graph.
http://vancouverpeak.com/attachment.php?aid=16
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:50 pm 36
@ patriotz
Great! And I’ve heard you mention Germany before but never heard how they do it. Please elaborate. And how is it that Japans RE has gone down so low for so long? Probably spoken of many times on VCI but I’ve just not heard. Thx.
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:52 pm 37
@ no noise:
I deal with much worse everyday over in Chinese forums, trying not to mention vci to prevent unwanted spam/ attacks. The perma-bulls are quite irritated (maybe even depressed?) these days. And I just keep pressing.
Someone even made a thread yesterday asking me to stop posting all these below-assessed sale prices because “they are not reflective of the real market”. He cited several “above-assessed” Westside sales, only to be debunked minutes later by others as comparing sale price of new houses with assessment of previous old tear-downs.
Bulls are touchy these days – which makes them even more fun and adorable.
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:52 pm 38
” the investor immigration program – just that it’s on hold for now ”
It’s new applications that are on hold, not the arrivals. There are enough in the queue to last 10 years or so.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/12/07/f-rich-immigrant-investor-limbo.html
Also the provinces have their own programs with their own rules.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:57 pm 39
” I’ve heard you mention Germany before but never heard how they do it. ”
Very restrictive rules on mortgages and a speculation tax.
“And how is it that Japans RE has gone down so low for so long?”
Japanese RE isn’t that low really, just compared to the bubble. I think the reasons the decline has taken so long are a lack of overbuilding (very strict development controls), the world’s lowest interest rates, and a culture that discourages mortgage defaults. But the decline did happen anyway.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 3:01 pm 40
@patriotz
Thanks!
@#37 VMD
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA love it
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January 25th, 2013 at 3:09 pm 41
@39 Patriotz
Speculation tax of course! What would it take to gain the political will for that to happen in Canada? Public outrage/incident as previously mentioned I suppose. Get loud and vote wisely people..
ps speaking of a new tax – I can see taxation of illegal rental suites coming as govts suffer during the downturn – that’ll drop Canadian RE especially in Van that has so many
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 3:34 pm 42
Chinese-owned employers and indentured workers hit the news again – this time in Alberta:
Largest workplace fine in Alberta history for oil giant’s role in the death of two Chinese workers
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 3:59 pm 43
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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January 25th, 2013 at 4:10 pm 44
Why Chinese are not buying Japan RE? It is closer to homeland and safe to launder and park money.
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January 25th, 2013 at 4:24 pm 45
@44
I’m quite certain Japan doesnt allow immigration of most sorts – I would think Chinese billionaires have a way of getting some $$ in but the Japanese keep a close eye on everything that happens – from the quality of the rice on your plate to this. Culturally, they put up with no BS whether its politically incorrect or not, unlike Canada.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 4:54 pm 46
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January 25th, 2013 at 5:24 pm 47
The Canada Post building in Downtown Vancouver has been sold for a rumoured $130 million. I wonder if this site is going to be developed into condos–it’s prime land right next to the Vancouver Public Library Central Branch.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Downtown+Vancouver+post+office+branch+sold/7874334/story.html
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January 25th, 2013 at 5:33 pm 48
Bob Rennie offers life lessons to Vancouver students
http://www.straight.com/news/345121/bob-rennie-offers-life-lessons-vancouver-students
“Rennie revealed that his company recently turned down an opportunity to market a downtown tower being built by an out-of-town billionaire. It was due to the man’s personality.”
Riiight….
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 5:45 pm 49
About the whole HAM thing: at a previous job, we outsourced our circuit board printing to China (Hangzhou). I made a bunch of trips over there to deal with various things and got to know a few of the guys I worked with. Keep in mind, this was several years ago so these thoughts might no longer apply:
1. Everyone I got to know (on a professional level, since we had translators we never became all that close) is semi-obsessed with real estate. It’s very culturally important to own your own place. You probably won’t find a wife otherwise.
2. “Canada” = “Vancouver”. No one mentioned Toronto, even though Toronto gets a lot of Chinese immigration. Maybe it’s just the city I was in, I don’t know.
3. Canada/Vancouver is a nice place to retire, “good for old people and parents”. It’s also a good place for schoolkids. Basically, Vancouver is seen as small and safe, which, compared to a place like Hangzhou, it is (Hangzhou is medium-sized city at around 6 million people). The word “clean” also came up a lot – the air pollution in China is just atrocious. You blow your nose and it comes out black, I am not kidding.
4. Several people I met hinted or explicitly said they wanted to get the hell out. These were engineers and middle-mgmt types. We were never allowed to meet or speak with factory workers.
5. There was some dark muttering about corruption. The few guys I spoke to about emigrating (they wanted to know how to get to Canada) were under the impression that if you’re rich, then it’s easy – Canada would welcome you with open arms.
Basically, it’s sort of a dream for these middle-class guys to get to Vancouver and buy a place. Keep in mind that China’s middle class alone is ten times the size of all of Canada. We really are a pipsqueak of a country, and you know, after spending that time there I’d like to stay that way.
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January 25th, 2013 at 6:04 pm 50
…“Rennie revealed that his company recently turned down an opportunity to market a downtown tower being built by an out-of-town billionaire. It was due to the man’s personality.”..
Who’s personality, Bob’s or the other dude’s?
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January 25th, 2013 at 6:14 pm 51
…“Rennie revealed that his company recently turned down an opportunity to market a downtown tower being built by an out-of-town billionaire. It was due to the man’s personality.”.
What a load! I am sure it was the man’s personality specifically relating to how much he wanted to pay Mr. Rennie.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 6:26 pm 52
RE: Chinese middle invasion of Vancouver.
Of course, incomes vary greatly from region to region, with most of the wealthier residents residing in the cities. In rural areas, the average disposable income drops to $1,000, but in China’s largest cities like Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen, it’s around $12,000 a year, per person.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/26/news/economy/china-middle-class/index.htm
Good luck to buy a home in Vancouver with this!
We are not talking about the middle class buying here, but the corrupt party officials. If the witch hunt continues in PRC, their number might decline.
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January 25th, 2013 at 6:28 pm 53
@49 Silverfish
Canada’s a big country and we can accomodate a lot of people but lets do it in a smart way that works for Canadian citizens. Bring in middle class people to fill available jobs where the jobs are. Filthy rich that just want to come to Vancouver screws everything up for local citizens who want to stay in Vancouver. Like Michael Cooper the CEO of Dundee REIT said today on BNN today “we dont invest in Vancouver because we dont understand it – there’s so much capital but no jobs..”
Canada needs to toughen/smarten up. Japan would never put up with it and neither should Canada.
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January 25th, 2013 at 6:29 pm 54
New Listings 222
Price Changes 67
Sold Listings 69
TI:13900
http://www.paulboenisch.com
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January 25th, 2013 at 6:38 pm 55
14k party next week. Looks likely 15k and 16k parties before the end of winter! Himilayan levels those are.
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January 25th, 2013 at 6:47 pm 56
“If the witch hunt continues in PRC, their number might decline.”
Hopefully by way of firing squad.
They’re welcome to track them down in Vancouver and take care of them right here.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 7:17 pm 57
**** U.S. Bond market got crushed today, I would expect an increase in mortgage rates very shortly to reflect the rising yields****
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January 25th, 2013 at 7:19 pm 58
Silverfish City:
I think it is more culturally important in Canada to own real estate. After all we are over 70% ownership rate. I doubt China is anywhere close to that.
When I have travelled to China and mention I am from Vancouver very few people have any clue where Vancouver is. Most guess the USA based on my looks (which I guess technically there is a Vancouver in the US but they don;t know that). The vast majority of people in China have no idea what country Vancouver is in or know anything about Canada other than it borders with the US.
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January 25th, 2013 at 7:32 pm 59
@58 Anon
It sounds like you only spoke to the factory workers (the vast majority)..
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January 25th, 2013 at 7:33 pm 60
@34 Patriotz:
Didn’t you receive the memo? There is definitely no bubble in Australia as constantly reported by the media here. These hard hitting news stories are even backed up by experts who know what they’re talking about, like real estate agents and mortgage brokers.
That Demographia survey must have really hit a nerve as there wasn’t the usually Saturday fluff piece about how property is still affordable, there were two!
The first story conceded that while income/price ratios had gone way out of whack in the past few decades, using household income is incorrect and you should be using income statistics from the national accounts. And when you use that measure Australia is “pretty much in the middle of countries.” Here’s where it gets really juicy – of the six other countries Australia was pretty much in the middle of, four are Canada, New Zealand, Belgium and France, countries with massive bubbles of their own!
If that isn’t funny enough, this was also mentioned: “US prices remain atypically low, probably because the country’s population is spread through major cities and towns across the entire country, as opposed to concentrated in coastal cities like Australia.” Yes, people here actually believe that there is a coastal premium on property even though everyone lives on the coast!
The second piece was just the typical crap about renters being whingers who want everything now without sacrificing for it. You see there’s really lots of affordable properties in Sydney, you just have to move to the far west where all the gun violence is and suck up the 2 hour commute each way into the city.
And this is just moronic: “But a survey from Mortgage Choice suggests young people buying in these more affordable areas would be financially better off paying a mortgage rather than renting. The weekly repayment on the average first home buyer loan of $308,300 is $422, compared with the median house rent of $500.”
Why compare the weekly repayment on a first home loan with the median rent across all properties? A property renting here for $500 per week would cost $600K+, I guess if you put 50 per cent down and ignore the opportunity cost of your money it makes sense to buy.
Happy Australia Day everyone!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 7:44 pm 61
Still no uptick in sales, this is ugly.
We’re on pace for 20% lower sales than last January, which was already quite bad.
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January 25th, 2013 at 7:53 pm 62
Rats I had my 14K party drink on. That’s ok. It’ll give me a reason to crack a bottle of vino on a Monday.
Have a great weekend bears.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 8:04 pm 63
After re-list this unit for 107 days, the seller reduced price by 2.5%:
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V976432&REBoards=All&From=MLS
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January 25th, 2013 at 8:12 pm 64
Strangely this blog entry has been removed. It came up when I searched Whistler price drop. This is a taste of ridiculous statements we can all remember in the years to come for Vancouver.
Real Estate Value in Whistler Best in 9 Years – Realestock
For people expecting the real estate prices in Whistler to drop after the Olympics, I’m afraid you’re going to be sorely disappointed. According to George Klimock …
realestock.com/joomla/blog/Real-Estate-Value-in-Whistler-Best-in-9.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 8:19 pm 65
@No Noise
Just to weigh in a bit on the Japanese prices and why they have never recovered….
In a nut, they learned a very ugly lesson from a hummongous bubble
and they have never forgotten. And demographics hit them head on at the very same time.
The graphs and the numbers we generally see are from only the biggest cities (Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka+Kobe and Nagoya). It happened in lockstep across the country, but not nearly to the same extent. The bubbles that erupted in these cities dwarfed what we have seen in vancouver and it only took 4 years to happen (1986 to 1990). When it crashed, it was equally spectacular. Real estate prices in those cities dropped over 50% in under 3 years. It was a true period of mass insanity, and when it was over everyone recognized it for exactly that.
And it coincided with unfavourable demographics. Population graphs hit an inflection point some time shortly before the crash where growth slowed down considerably. And this is the ongoing problem really. Population growth went negative in 2008.
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January 25th, 2013 at 8:26 pm 66
$1 condo for sale
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12706571&PidKey=-218599722
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 25th, 2013 at 9:24 pm 67
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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January 25th, 2013 at 11:48 pm 68
Whoa! Just checked Jesse’s post in the forum, only minutes left before entry deadline is up for 2013 VCI RE prediction contest?
“Entry deadline is 12:01am PST on Saturday January 26, 2013″
I’ll post my prediction here and on the forum:
Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI 575000 (-3.4%, -8%)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (-3.6%,-8.5%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (-3.1%,-7.5%)
Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (-2%,-10%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (-3.5%, -8%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (-4.0%,-9%)
Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby South SFD (-3.5%, -8.5%)
- Coquitlam SFD (-3.3%,-8.0%)
- North Van SFD (-3.3%,-8.5%)
- New West SFD (-3.0%,-7%)
- West Van SFD (-4%,-9%)
- Van East SFD (-3.3%,-8%)
- Van West SFD (-3.3%, -10%)
- Richmond SFD (-3.5%,-9%)
Jesse maybe extend the deadline for a day or two, many people may have forgotten about it.
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January 26th, 2013 at 3:38 am 69
Wow…13900, I miss one day of coming on here and look!
A couple of points: anyone at the CFA forecast dinner on Thursday? None of the panel mentioned Canadian housing as a risk factor to the economy. I was surprised by this. Side note: Dennis Gartman is too in love with Canada, it actually made me feel uncomfortable.
Point2
Had a meeting with an accountant on Friday.. the tone was very bearish on real estate. He had a tone which suggested concern for his developer clients…. a complete turn around from a year ago.
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January 26th, 2013 at 5:59 am 70
“Perhaps instead of pursuing the unauthorized use of provincial logos to help sell condos, the government should be looking at what appears to be widespread illegal use of the first time home buyer grant to circumvent CMHC mortgage insurance regulations?”
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2013/01/is-bcs-first-time-home-buyer-grant.html?m=1
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 7:19 am 71
TMZ has a real estate story so Ican’t resist he temptation to post the link here. From TMZ:
“Buy low … SELL HIGH … at least that’s the real estate advice Vanilla Ice is handing out on the streets of New York — telling TMZ, now’s a better time than ever to purchase a new home.
‘Nilla — who currently hosts the reality show “The Vanilla Ice Project” on the DIY Network about renovating and flipping houses — was out in NYC yesterday, where he told us, “The housing market right now is better than ever.”"
http://www.tmz.com/2013/01/26/vanilla-ice-real-estate-tips-video/
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January 26th, 2013 at 7:29 am 72
Just a few stories below the Vanilla Ice story is a second story about real estate on TMZ. Wow look what a cool million buys you in Georgia: a 10- bedroom, 9-bathroom mansion! That’s cheap by Vancouver standards.
“Former NFL star Jamal Anderson took a beating on his Georgia mansion … TMZ has learned his primo crib was sold off at a foreclosure auction … for $225,000 LESS than what Jamal paid.
Jamal — who played for the Atlanta Falcons from 1994 to 2001 — bought the MASSIVE 10-bedroom, 9-bath crib way back in 1999 (when he had an NFL contract) for $1.225 million.
According to official records, Anderson defaulted on his mortgage … so the bank foreclosed the home and recently sold it at auction for an even $1,000,000.
It was a STEAL for the buyer … the pad is over 6,000 square feet, sits on 2 acres and is rockin’ a separate guest house, arcade room, media room, pool and spa.”
http://www.tmz.com/2013/01/26/jamal-anderson-nfl-falcons-georgia-mansion-foreclosure-auction-sale/
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January 26th, 2013 at 9:15 am 73
Going to be tight for 5000 new listings. Sales, on the other hand, are looking **dreadful**. We’re going to come in around 1300. woah….
Past Januaries:
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January 26th, 2013 at 9:20 am 74
Looking forward, here are the February averages:
Feb sales are typically about 60% higher than Jan sales. So, imagine we hit say 2100 sales in Feb 2012. Inventory of 15K+, MoI barely gets under 8.
I’ve been among those who expected prices perhaps to stall their downward trajectory during Feb-March. Feb-March are on average the months with the biggest price gains, as there are buyers out there but not so much inventory accumulated.
But if we see MoI **bottom out** at 8 this year, then the best opportunity for price gains/flatness in Feb-March will pass right on by. If that happens, April-December will get very interesting….
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January 26th, 2013 at 9:23 am 75
Last thought: the weak sales numbers and high MoI are like water carving away the earth to form a sinkhole under a street. At some point, the street will just collapse under the pressure.
In the past downturn, one form this took was the sudden ‘MacBulk’ discounting of 25% off condos.
This time, it could be a developer failing, or a bank taking some drastic credit turning off move.
But every week that goes by with these low sales makes the probability of some kind of big event more likely.
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January 26th, 2013 at 9:27 am 76
Another useless anecdote. A large financial management company visited my office giving a presentation in hopes of drummming up some business. This is the second one I’d been too (previous one was in late 2009). The 2009 presentation was heavy on how to make your mortgage tax deductible. In the 2013 version the general message was that this strategy carried substantial risks with little time being spent on the topic.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 9:39 am 77
Some realtors are just too dumb. Check out v986915 in North Van. This place has languished on the market for 10 months originally listing at 1,418,000 and then trickled down 10% to 1,278,000. Well, the house didn’t sell so they hired themselves a new realtor. So what brilliant marketing plan did new realtor Joseph Lee come up with? Put another “8″ in the price and mark it up from 1,278,000 to 1,288,000.
Speaking of 8′s, I bought a new car on the weekend and flipped through the plates they had. The ICBC guy showed me the best plates they were saving and they all were the ones with the most 8′s. I asked him if he had any plates with 4′s and he looked at me strangely and said that it might hurt resale. I asked again for a plate with the most 4′s and got me a 604.
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January 26th, 2013 at 9:44 am 78
OOOhhhh, here’s a nice price drop worthy of the price drop website: v985103
They dropped 19% in one move from 2,199,000 to 1,778,999
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 10:22 am 79
what was the previous sales price? previous sales price of similar properties? what is the assessed value?
price cuts without context are worse than useless. they give a false impression, especially if the initial asking price was unrealistically high. but you get an A for effort.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 10:22 am 80
I cannot wait to celebrate the CNY (Feb 10)! Two weeks later, we will finally see the impact in the numbers. If the impact is null, the wishful thinkers will switch to panic mode.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 11:10 am 81
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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January 26th, 2013 at 11:41 am 82
@65 Guy Smiley
And because the Japanese hold their culture as far more important than their economy (and lets face it they have been a first world economic powerhouse for a long time now) they do not resort to immigration to inflate their RE values. If they did ever open up their borders, due to history, I doubt China would be a place they would go looking. Apparantly, I just heard that Japan has let some people in for working purposes (lower classes to fill required jobs) but they will never ever become citizens. Even when their children are born there they do not have citizenship – there are a lot of Koreans in Japan in that situation. I wouldnt be surprised if China itself (Korea, etc) have the exact same stringent immigration policies as Japan.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 11:45 am 83
@VHB:
Worst January Sell/List evah!!!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 11:47 am 84
(Apart from 2009.)
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January 26th, 2013 at 11:49 am 85
@YLTNboomerang
That one actually dropped 5 times from $2,199,000 back in March. The most recent one was just a $20K drop.
I was watching edgemont area a year ago and remembered seeing that listing come on at $2.2 million and wondered what they were smoking. At $1.78 it is still horribly overpriced for the current market conditions never mind where it is heading and I suspect they’ll continue to price it a couple hundred thousand over what they could get for it all the way down
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January 26th, 2013 at 11:54 am 86
Some thoughts: If the plural of anecdotes is “data”, and we integrate all the myriad stories we have heard of people planning to relist in spring when the market is “hot” again with the known number of dropped listings through fall… we may get that crushing number of listings that lands a killer punch on the MOI through spring.
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January 26th, 2013 at 11:58 am 87
“Moronic Morons and the Moron Taxes They Pay”
Still waiting for the CBC Marketplace episode that discloses the moron tax of buying 100-150% overpriced RE instead of renting. That episode will probably be in the Fall 2013 season. It will be called “Who knew? I paid double what my home was actually worth and nobody told me.”
This most recent episode does reveal a typical family unecessarily paying $1000/yr for credit line charges and banking fees:
http://www.cbc.ca/player/Shows/ID/2329314496/
Seek to 16:00 to see the interview. Absolutely clueless!
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January 26th, 2013 at 12:49 pm 88
There was an accountant speaking re: HST/GST changes on local chinese radio station yesterday.
key points:
1. buy booze before Apr 1 to avoid higher tax (15%?)
2. Realtor commissions will go back to GST, a 7% drop. (For a 1M house, the difference can be over $3000). “However,” said the accountant, “the current Vancouver RE market is weak, you might not want to wait until April 1st to sell your house”
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January 26th, 2013 at 1:05 pm 89
vMD yeah I’ll extend the deadline to Monday to allow more guesses. It costs nothing to guess but the bragging rights are nothing but positive return
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January 26th, 2013 at 1:11 pm 90
Very unlikely there will be a surge of Chinese buyers around Chinese New Year (Feb. 10?) in Vancouver. Some reports say those buyers are now snatching houses in California NOW, with cash!
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January 26th, 2013 at 1:27 pm 91
“Very unlikely there will be a surge of Chinese buyers around Chinese New Year (Feb. 10?)” was this ever anything but a myth anyway?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 1:48 pm 92
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/north-america-residential-news/chinese-real-estate-investors-california-association-of-realtors-ritz-carlton-los-angeles-national-association-of-realtors-nar-chinese-property-buyers-report-6400.php
California Association of Realtors (CAR) is reporting in its latest research that Chinese buyers make up 39.1 percent of the international buyers of California homes today.
Other surveys estimate one in 10 California home buyers today are permanent residents of China who are buying second homes in California, either as an investment or for an actual residence by a relative.
Some of the homes are being bought for the residence of a Chinese student studying at a California college or university. And still other homes are now being constructed especially for the special cultural and social needs of Chinese homeowners in California, either as permanent or temporary residents.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 2:11 pm 93
I think we’ve discovered what Cam Good is doing for a living these days.
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January 26th, 2013 at 2:36 pm 94
Put these two claims together and they imply that 25% of all RE sales in California are to foreigners.
Does that make any sense at all? Remember the California RE market is bigger than Canada’s.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 2:57 pm 95
“Thousands of Chinese communist officials have been panicked into a fire sale of their illicit properties and billions of pounds have been smuggled overseas as the country’s new leaders intensify a campaign to root out corruption.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-great-china-corruption-fire-sale-20130122-2d3v5.html
Well, the freed up hot cash has to flow to somewhere, I guess.
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January 26th, 2013 at 2:58 pm 96
@88 VMD
Is it a weekly program? I suspect that it was my finance/accounting instructor in the studio. The same attitude towards booze and RE =)
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January 26th, 2013 at 3:09 pm 97
RE #90,92,94
My friend from Hong Kong told me this story 3 months ago. His wife’s family lives in a SFH on a hill in HK, so without doubt they are rich. They and their friends snapped up entire blocks of SFH in a LA suburb, with cash, waiting for the eventual appreciation while enjoying positive cash flow.
The story is getting out to the foreigners: US RE –> yes. Vancouver RE –> no.
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January 26th, 2013 at 3:11 pm 98
@95 UBC In Crisis Mode
Thanks for the link – and that’s a sign of the difference between Canada and Australia – this story appears in The Sydney Morning Herald but would never appear in The Vancouver Sun.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-great-china-corruption-fire-sale-20130122-2d3v5.html
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January 26th, 2013 at 3:23 pm 99
Re #95 UBC in Crisis Mode
“Thousands of Chinese communist officials have been panicked into a fire sale of their illicit properties”
So will they still think RE is a safe “storage” of their ill-gotten wealth? If I were them, I would take “cash/gold/etc under a mattress” over RE any day.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 3:33 pm 100
Japan naturalizes about fifteen thousand new citizens a year. I know that it’s fun to guess, but why not check into things before posting about them?
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January 26th, 2013 at 5:05 pm 101
By comparison, there are about half a million ethnic Koreans born in Japan (many 2nd or 3rd generation) who are not citizens.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 5:23 pm 102
@Short’em High
Did you mentioned one time that you trade for a living?
Any advice for beginner who wants to to this. I want to do badly but need a mentor.
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January 26th, 2013 at 5:51 pm 103
@VHB
Feb sales are typically about 60% higher than Jan sales. So, imagine we hit say 2100 sales in Feb 2012. Inventory of 15K+, MoI barely gets under 8.
Thats a nice analysis VHB, . However, I have another version. This is because the second half of January did not turn out to be that “traditional”, i.e. no uptick in sale. So, rather than comparing it with whole of Jan, I would compare it with second half of January.
Lets say the traditional sales for the first half of January is x. Then second half generally would be 50% higher, that is 1.5x, making total sales 2.5x. With traditional 60% jump in Feb, the sale for Feb should end at 1.6*2.5x = 4.0x. Thus, compared to the second half of the January, the jump is 4/1.5 = 2.67x
This year the second half did not see much improvement, so lets say it is 1.2x, speaking generously. So the final sale for Feb would be x*2.67/1.5=3.2x, which is 3.2x/2.5x, 1.28 i.e. 28% higher than Jan sales. So the Feb sale should be 1250*1.28 = 1600. So with 15K inventory, we should see MOI higher than 9.
My 2 cents.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 5:58 pm 104
Ok, a small mistake. The final sales should be compared with 2.2x as against 2.5x. So, Feb should see 3.2/2.2, 45% jump in sales compared to Jan i.e. around 1820.
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January 26th, 2013 at 6:33 pm 105
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2013/01/26/temperature-gauge-hot/
San Diego SFH under $1 million is at ONE MONTH of inventory. As Jim the Realtor said: “jobs aren’t coming back”.
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January 26th, 2013 at 7:11 pm 106
@#100 N
15,000 out of a total population of 130 million? If you are correct (have done your research) what’s the point of mentioning it – or Japan doing it? And your right I didnt do any research – I took the word of a Japanese citizen living in Japan..of Japanese ethnicity
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January 26th, 2013 at 7:33 pm 107
Someone loves the relisting game…
North Vancouver – Deep Cove
# 2181 DEEP COVE RD
V982352 V971715 V960200 V940332 V924968 V912917 V899001
$ 1,199,000.00 – December 12, 2012
$ 1,199,000.00 – September 16, 2012
$ 1,199,000.00 – July 05, 2012
$ 1,280,000.00 – March 31, 2012
$ 1,490,000.00 – January 20, 2012
$ 1,490,000.00 – November 20, 2011
$ 1,689,000.00 – August 18, 2011
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January 26th, 2013 at 8:15 pm 108
@roockie
TIP: Profitable Trading Is 80% Money Management
Despite the down votes, there is something relevant to say about this.
(1) Never enter a position for which a less than meaningful adverse move will be more than you can afford to lose on one trade.
(2) Always take your losses and move on. See point #1.
As applied to an illiquid asset with a very large and inflexible contract size like physical RE, a 10 million dollar account would never open a position for a $500K home that could easily decline in value by $250K. A decline of $100K is roughly the maximum risk one would ever accept on one trade in a 10 million dollar account.
Relative to $10M, most so called home “owners” in Vancouver don’t own a pot to piss in. They are basically renting from the bank until the inevitable job loss, foreclosure, and eviction.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 8:47 pm 109
Boggles my mind how many local home owners (but obviously, not those home owner regulars on this site) lose the capacity for logic when it comes to real estate.
For example, I was visiting a friend the other day, and the topic of real estate came up. She lamented the fact that since prices are falling, the value of her house is shrinking.
Says I, “But, this actually great news for you! You have mentioned before that with your growing family you are seriously contemplating moving up into a more expensive, bigger home. That means the more prices fall, the better for you.”
Her: “What are you talking about? The value of my home is falling. That is terrible. It doesn’t make a difference to my wanting to move up in the market. In fact, it will probably delay our plans of moving up because of the reduction in our home’s value.”
If prices fall across the board the differential shrinks for an existing homeowner to sell and buy up to something more expensive. (And as a bonus, property transfer taxes and real estate commission come in at discount too!)
I had to resort to a basic example. “If you a product worth $50 and you want to upgrade to one worth $100, you have to pony up a difference of $50 to sell and move up to the more expensive one. Now imagine that both of those products are suddenly worth half of what they used to be. Yes, your product has lost $25 dollars in value. But who cares? The more important news is it now only costs you $25 to upgrade to the better product that you really wanted!”
My friend looked at me bewildered, refusing to concede about how terrible the falling prices are. (And no, she is nowhere close to being in danger of going underwater, which would be one of the only reasons I would concede her worry).
Sigh. I happen to know a lot of wonderful people who are hoping to move up in the market in coming years…who are equally idiotic.
Did Global TV, Tsur, Good, et al eat their brains?
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January 26th, 2013 at 9:02 pm 110
@Short’em High
money management. thanks.
don;t be shy to share your experiance time to time.
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January 26th, 2013 at 9:09 pm 111
Here’s a nice post from Barry Ritholtz:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/05/dont-buy-housing-bubble-propaganda/
I think if one fails to connect the dots between house prices, construction activity, and overall employment, the big picture will be missed.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 9:54 pm 112
The above quotation about the pain of RE price decline speaks volumes about actual intentions rather than stated ones.
The state of mind is not about the value of shelter or ultimate shelter for the 100% extra (and smaller post-decline absolute extra amount as @Crikey points out).
A relevant reference is this one:
http://www.amazon.ca/You-Cant-Cheat-Honest-Man/dp/1563431696
(or woman)
The phenomenon at work is the idea that the buyer feels that they are somehow in on a scam and the seller (or non-buyers) are not. When the buyer finds out they are in fact the mark in the overall scheme, they will be unhappy no matter what the stated rationale for getting involved in the first place.
The 1939 movie of the same name, “You Can’t Cheat An Honest Man”, has a remarkable sequence where W.C. Fields’ character is providing change at a carnival kiosk and folds the change bills to provide a double count. The mark doesn’t notice as the mark knows he paid with a ten note, yet W.C,’s character states that he is changing a twenty note. Thinking he has gotten away with something, the mark keeps quiet while W.C.’s character actually counts out the change for a five note and the mark walks off happily – at least initially…
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 10:02 pm 113
Re: #109
“I had to resort to a basic example. “If you a product worth $50 and you want to upgrade to one worth $100, you have to pony up a difference of $50 to sell and move up to the more expensive one. Now imagine that both of those products are suddenly worth half of what they used to be. Yes, your product has lost $25 dollars in value. But who cares? The more important news is it now only costs you $25 to upgrade to the better product that you really wanted!””
The “problem” with this example is, following your analogy, if your friend had put in a $5 downpayment in the first place and the market has dropped by 10%, his DP is wiped out and he’s stuck. On the other hand, if the market risen by 10% across the board, he now has $10 in “equity” which he could use as DP on his new home. It’s true that he would be owning more money in the 2nd example, but the increased “equity” allows him to move up. I think that’s along his line of thinking.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 10:02 pm 114
@109 Crikey – I understand the point you’re making, and agree that people are irrational in general in this way (compare to Warren Buffett’s comments about how young people get upset when stock prices drop, even though they should rejoice because they are accumulating stocks, so low prices are good) – but in one sense, your friends aren’t as crazy as they seem once you factor in leverage.
If you buy a $500,000 place with $25,000 down and then it drops to $475,000 in value, you have zero equity with which to put $45,000 down on a house that has dropped from $1,000,0000 to $900,000.
That’s a factor that will really start to bite if house prices go down and stay down for a while – so many leveraged homedebtors will be wiped out or close enough that the move-up market will freeze, even as the price gap in moving up shrinks.
Based on some anecdata, I suspect we may be seeing some of this influence already.
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January 26th, 2013 at 10:15 pm 115
Picking up on some analysis VMD did on sales vs assessed price, I collated 1300 Vancouver sales pulled from BC Assessment database (which is open to the public for the first part of each year) and looked at sale price vs assessed price.
I graphed the results here.
It’s hard to make out but the sale price for the first part of the year is typically higher than assessed, and this trends downwards as the year continues. The stats on the scatterplot are:
Slope -0.02%/day
Annualized slope -7.61%/year
Rsq 0.040036120396799
Count 1305
Average sale day 122 (5/1/2012)
Median sale day 112 (4/21/2012)
I’m not sure exactly how BCA accounts for sales in the first part of the year compared to the latter parts when coming up with an assessed value, so I wouldn’t read into this too much, but it shows that, generally, properties sold as the year went on were generally trending lower compared to their ultimate assessed values (again, how ever those are calculated).
This is the type of analysis that fills long winter nights while bears patiently wait for the rapture of fundamental value.
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January 26th, 2013 at 10:45 pm 116
chinese new year is later this year than last, a fair chunk…sluggish sales look excellent, but I’d wait a few weeks before breaking out the champagne…
fingers crossed that sales continue to slump and the we get a surge in listings over the coming weeks and months…
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 26th, 2013 at 11:19 pm 117
3515 Walker Street Trout Lake area, been listed for about 2 months @898k…… Just resisted at..@928k either they got sick of low balls or they don’t wanna sell, I will pay 700k cash no subjects if owners are reading this. Pulling silly price increases are online going to add to the death of a thousand paper cuts, or maybe the Realturd needs some extra commish to make lease payment on the BMW
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January 27th, 2013 at 12:38 am 118
WOSERS you would pay $700K for this shit box???
http://pauleviston.com/grandview-listings.html/photos-28186399
In any sane city that monstrosity should be 200K-300K.
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January 27th, 2013 at 1:16 am 119
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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January 27th, 2013 at 2:06 am 120
” renting is also losing capital if you ultimately plan to buy. ”
Renting is paying for the use of someone else’s capital, not “losing” capital. That includes someone else’s money, i.e. paying interest.
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January 27th, 2013 at 2:20 am 121
“San Diego SFH under $1 million is at ONE MONTH of inventory.”
If you read the webpage you’ll see that number is only for the upscale seaside markets listed (La Jolla, etc.), not all of metro SD (SD county). Not too surprising that there wouldn’t be a large inventory 40% below in real terms.
http://piggington.com/december_2012_resale_data_rodeo
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 2:24 am 122
Post should read: Not too surprising that there wouldn’t be a large inventory 40% below in real terms.
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January 27th, 2013 at 2:27 am 123
Ack, now I understand, can’t use greater than / less than sign.
Not too surprising that there wouldn’t be a large inventory under $1 mil in those places. SD metro is 3 MOI and rising but still 35% below peak and over 40% below in real terms.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 4:43 am 124
Looks like Moody’s may downgrade the Canadian banks next week because of Canada’s housing bubble bursting.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/six-canadian-banks-may-be-cut-by-moody-s-next-week.html
Canadian mainstream media, as expected, are trying to downplay the situation.
“In Canada banking will always be a profitable proposition. So chin up, no matter what Moody’s says.”
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/25/canadas-banking-giants-headed-for-earnings-iceberg/
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January 27th, 2013 at 4:59 am 125
#115 Jesse . .
That’s fantastic. It basically shows the trend that occurred during 2012 which is falling prices. Would be interesting to see how 2009 was completely the opposite.
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January 27th, 2013 at 7:44 am 126
@118 McLovin
RE: http://pauleviston.com/grandview-listings.html/details-28186399
That house is going for $928,000 what I am curious is, how much could it possibly cost to rent this house of 2,354 sq. ft.
I would say you max out rent at about $3000/month of rent (correct me if I am wrong). Assuming there is a $700,000 mortgage to purchase it (around 25% down), you are left with a monthly INTEREST payment on your first payments of the loan at 3% of about: $1700 /month + property tax of about $330/month = $2030
+ Maintenance and Repairs averaging $100/month =
$2130
If you rent
Your initial $250,000 could be invested conservatively at 4%/year and make about $800/month bringing the $3000 rental cost down to $2200. One could argue that in the first option you are building $70/month equity by buying.
However, if prices fall by only 4% per year – you are are losing about $3000/month in equity. Which brings the cost of ownership to $5130/month, about 130% more than renting.
—–
That is why price momentum matters – any equity building, any property tax, any mortgage interest is dwarfed by even conservative price drops. 4%/year? Heck, we should be closer to 10% this year.
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January 27th, 2013 at 8:01 am 127
I would say you max out rent at about $3000/month of rent (correct me if I am wrong).
Doubt it. Wouldn’t you rather rent this place for $3K?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/nvn/apa/3562836043.html
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 8:57 am 128
“I would say you max out rent at about $3000/month of rent (correct me if I am wrong)”
Speaking from experience, I would estimate total rent on that place would be $2500/mo maximum and rents are dropping (along with prices) -if owner rents it as 2 separate suites probably a few hundred more.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 9:23 am 129
…..WOSERS you would pay $700K for this shit box???
http://pauleviston.com/grandview-listings.html/photos-28186399
In any sane city that monstrosity should be 200K-300K….
I think your point highlights a deep issue in this city. There are plenty of dumps around that have sold over $1M in the last few years. They’re still a dump, and and NOT a bargain, if they drop by 50%. They really need to drop by about 75 -80% to get back to normal.
It’s not the discount that matters, it’s the price!
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January 27th, 2013 at 9:48 am 130
yvr, if I had the data I could compare. I think I have a couple of posts from VMD and myself from last year (2011 sales) that I can run through the chipper. VMD did the initial research, I added to the dataset to give it more statistical significance.
Most interesting is the variance between assessed and sale price. Shows you how insane it is to use assessed price at all when negotiating, or talking about, prices.
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January 27th, 2013 at 9:57 am 131
add this to the “qualitative” data:
from Chinese RE forum:
“It’s already well-known among the prospective immigrant circle that the recent waves of Chinese immigrants bought too high in Vancouver. It’s also well-known now that an old Vancouver East SFH costs the same as a mansion in many areas of US. A lot of people who were rejected or delayed by Canada’s immigration backlog already turned to States. Don’t naively count on HAM to help you unload your illiquid investment.”
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January 27th, 2013 at 10:03 am 132
@Jesse Very nice work!
Now re: RE prediction contest, how many people do we have?
seems like the forum’s down again, I’ll post the rules here for those who still wants to sign up (Deadline Monday):
[2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest]
- Points are awarded for each item, for first, second, and third closest to the actual number, for both June and December, according to the following schedule:
June gauge gets
3 points for first
2 points for second
1 point for third
0 for every other entry
December gauge gets
6 points for first
4 points for second
2 points for third
0 for every other entry
- Points awarded to each contestant in a category are summed. The contestant with the most points in a category wins the category. (There will be one winner per category.)
Categories are as follows:
Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI (Jun%, Dec%)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (Jun%, Dec%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (Jun%, Dec%)
Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (%,%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (%, %)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (%,%)
Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby South SFD (%,%)
- Coquitlam SFD (%,%)
- North Van SFD (%,%)
- New West SFD (%,%)
- West Van SFD (%,%)
- Van East SFD (%,%)
- Van West SFD (%,%)
- Richmond SFD (%,%)
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January 27th, 2013 at 10:26 am 133
@131 thanks VMD.
So does anyone know how USAs foreign RE investment/immigration rules compare to Canadas?
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January 27th, 2013 at 10:44 am 134
@patriotz
the first place has almost 40% more square footage –
So I believe $3000 would be reasonable but an optimistic suggestion. A more likely going market rate is probably closer to $2500 then… Which makes the rent vs owning argument even more compelling for the “Rent Camp”
I pulled up the assessment and the house is listed at 23% over :
3515 WALKER ST VANCOUVER V5N 5A9 $757,600
At current time I think the correct asking price should be closer to $680 – 10% below assessed.
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January 27th, 2013 at 11:09 am 135
….At current time I think the correct asking price should be closer to $680 – 10% below assessed…..
And the correct bidding price should be closer to $200k (and that’s generous).
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January 27th, 2013 at 11:59 am 136
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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January 27th, 2013 at 12:01 pm 137
Regarding rents in Vancouver West
I rent a SFH above average craigslist asking price. The reason is that I am dealing with a long term landlord, who has no intention to sell, who does not bother me, and who repairs everything in a timely fashion. We visited cheaper places, rented by amateur landlords-speculators that scared us away. This is an important parameter to factor in when renting here at the moment, and that info does not appear on craigslist. So it is hard to guestimate rent from pictures and location.
Regarding buying a home
I noticed a lot of people have no idea of the real cost of a house when they are first time buyers. Limited understanding of interest rates, and above all no awareness of how expansive maintenance can be. I wish some home owners could share their experience with us here. For example, my friend just got her assessment for rainscreening her condo… 110 K! Decided by the strata, no choice for her. So expansive that some owners in the building had to put their condos for sale. Many speak of pride of ownership. What about slavery of ownership?
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January 27th, 2013 at 12:28 pm 138
Panic much?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/rds/reo/3524822684.html
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January 27th, 2013 at 12:35 pm 139
@Gokou: “if your friend had put in a $5 downpayment in the first place and the market has dropped by 10%, his DP is wiped out and he’s stuck. On the other hand, if the market risen by 10% across the board, he now has $10 in “equity” which he could use as DP on his new home.”
She can afford to move up whether or not she has existing equity. Why would anybody like her prefer your second scenario, where she has to pay $55 to move up, to the former where she has to pay $45? Who cares about the equity when you are saving $10?
@Some Guy: “If you buy a $500,000 place with $25,000 down and then it drops to $475,000 in value, you have zero equity with which to put $45,000 down on a house that has dropped from $1,000,0000 to $900,000.”
Lots of equity talk. My friend already has a lot of equity in her existing home, and didn’t buy recently.
I see how your point applies to the “Greater Fools” that bought at the top of the market, but many existing owners that wish to move up won’t have that problem at all. They should in fact all be rejoicing and cheering falling prices!
@rp1: “If the price is falling like that your friend could do much better by selling.”
Since it is her principal home, you would appear to be implying that she should sell and rent while she waits out the price drops.
“She is losing capital”
She is losing the most *real* capital (not imaginary capital on paper only) in a scenario where prices rise across the board and she then moves up to a more expensive home. It is simple math.
“She may simply be left with few good choices”
Moving up in a market with much lower prices, she will have many more homes to choose from. So not only will the differential save her money, but she will end up being able to select a “better” (more suitable) home that she otherwise would have…better suited for her particular cultural background, lifestyle, office, hobbies, vicinity to family and friends, etc — that added value never shows up on paper but is worth a heck of a lot.
@Short’em High: Interesting – thanks!
It certainly is bizarre that the RE MSM reports falling/rising prices as if there is one universal mindset/reaction “groupthink” among existing homeowners.
Just the other day, a local radio new story began: “Good news for homeowners. Prices in Vancouver are undergoing a soft landing, according to…”.
Um, hold on a sec! Many homeowners with a good amount of equity want to move up to more expensives homes — for them this reported news is NOT “good” (nevermind that it was inaccurate news, but that’s another conversation)
Also, what about happy homeowners who comfortably own their home and don’t plan to sell soon, but would love to see their children and family be able to afford to live nearby?
The value of their homes is only on paper (and will only be on paper for decades to come), and the paper value matters not unless they are lonely greedy idiots who get their rocks off on looking at fictional numbers on paper. Those who are not lonely greedy idiots, who have loved ones that they want to be nearby, who own comfortably and plan to stay many years, are overwhelmingly ecstatic about falling prices!
But why does the MSM assume there is a greed group-think going on among homeowners?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 12:38 pm 140
So an investment that continuously loses money every month is “good” because it offsets your income taxes? You should be out selling time shares with that kind of logic.
The irony of your “logic” is that so many people in the FIRE industry use similarly laughable sales pitches for their crappy investments – and the gullible public laps it up.
And you accuse us of group-think.
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January 27th, 2013 at 12:53 pm 141
@ Painted Turtle
“I rent a SFH above average craigslist asking price. The reason is that I am dealing with a long term landlord, who has no intention to sell, who does not bother me, and who repairs everything in a timely fashion.”
I am exactly the same. Long-term landlords who don’t bother their tenants and who do all necessary repairs can charge a premium on rents. I have a good landlord, just like you do. I have seen similar units to mine for cheaper rent but I don’t move because I don’t want to rent from an amateur, accidental landlord.
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January 27th, 2013 at 1:00 pm 142
@VDTF
I still can’t believe you’ve never heard people say you can ski and swim on the same day in Vancouver. Quit all your online fact checking and go talk to people!
“Ski the North Shore, run the Sea Wall and wade into the surf in English Bay in one day before catching a sunset and stepping out to dine at a world-class fusion cafe? Check.”
http://www.theprovince.com/news/Vancouver+Surrey+duke+funding+people+cred/7878576/story.html
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January 27th, 2013 at 1:02 pm 143
Regarding landlords and amateur vs professional landlords and the premium that good landlords can charge:
One site that could be potentially helpful is ratemylandlord.com.
http://ratemylandlord.com/landlords/
It is similar to the ratemyprofessor.com website that someone on this blog found the reviews for Tsur Sommerville. But I think it is mainly US landlords on the site. Canadians need to put more reviews of their landlords on that site. It could help potential renters distinguish between the good and the bad landlords.
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January 27th, 2013 at 1:23 pm 144
Check out this CNN interview with David Lereah from January 2007 regarding the outlook for US real estate at the start of the new year.
Article sets the stage by stating that sales levels in 2006 dropped significantly, and prices in a small number of cities have dropped, but overall prices have not dropped nationally.
This is exactly where we are right now in Canada at the start of 2013. Eerie.
Read the arguments he makes against a bubble. Hearing all of the same exact things right now in the canadian mainstream media.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/01/magazines/fortune/nar.fortune/
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 1:29 pm 145
Reality Check:
“Friend has an investment condo. Rents for $1000 but costs him much more. So he takes a monthly loss. He may even exaggerate this loss while under report rental income. When it comes to tax time, he has a significant loss on this proprietorship business venture. He also has a 8-4 job where he hates paying all the income taxes. Well, guess what that loss on the condo does to his income taxes payable?”
So your friend is losing $1.00 but saving $.40? Tell me how this is a good thing?
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January 27th, 2013 at 1:55 pm 146
Finally, a new listing at Univ. VW:
1866 Wesbrook Cres.
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V987077
Assessed: $4,169,000
Asking: $4,198,000
Good luck to the seller.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 1:58 pm 147
@142 Groundhog
“surf in English Bay”
LOL. These people don’t know what they are talking about. The closest place to surf is 5-6 hours away. Plus you have to pay for a ferry and don’t get me started on BC Ferries prices…
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 2:00 pm 148
@Realitycheck
He would have to exaggerate that loss IMMENSELY to make this work out like you imply…I don’t think you understand taxes. You sound like Kramer describing write-offs.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 2:26 pm 149
RealtyCheck“Friend has an investment condo. Rents for $1000 but costs him much more. So he takes a monthly loss. He may even exaggerate this loss while under report rental income. When it comes to tax time, he has a significant loss on this proprietorship business venture. He also has a 8-4 job where he hates paying all the income taxes. Well, guess what that loss on the condo does to his income taxes payable?”
This statement really shows the lack of intelligence when it comes to the average real estate bull.
1. An easier way to get a tax write off without having to plunge toilets would be to borrow money at 4% interest and then invest in a 2% GIC. You get the same results. A guaranteed loss to write off.
2. It is pretty easy to exaggerate a loss, but it is called tax evasion and comes with some pretty stiff penalties including possible jail time. Again you can do this with out having to plunge toilets on the side. Just make stuff up on your tax return. Same result.
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January 27th, 2013 at 2:48 pm 150
Whoever voted down my comment #147 has no idea too.
There is no surfing in English Bay. You can do windsurfing, rarely kitesurfing, but not surfing.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 3:02 pm 151
I doubt any business could report similar losses back-to-back for many years. Eventually the taxman is going to wonder what the hell you’re doing. Businesses are supposed to eventually make money or it looks fishy.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 3:07 pm 152
I expected to disagree with this article but it turns out this New West city councillor has some important things to say about building family-friendly housing.
http://www.royalcityrecord.com/life/Condo+proud/7870752/story.html
We need to start building homes for people to live in, not speculative units.
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January 27th, 2013 at 3:20 pm 153
http://www.yattermatters.com/homes-for-sale/?area=Vancouver%2BWest&community=Any&type=Multifamily&bedrooms=Any&bathrooms=Any&minprice=200000&maxprice=20000000&newlistings=1&nonce=5385a43389&search=true&submit_x=94&submit_y=14&prop=V987566
rent $53,400 minus $16,000 in expenses = $37,400 (before being fully taxed on the rental income)….probably net about $28,0000 if they are going to be honest with their taxes. I’m not even going to get into any added expenses that an old triplex might incur.
so $28,0000 rental income on a $1.9 million investment gets you a generous yield of 1.47% with the headache of having to deal with 4 sets of tenants…
wtf are they nuts? most HISA pay better than that.
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January 27th, 2013 at 3:45 pm 154
@vangrl 153:
Ah, but that fourplex will be worth umpteen million dollars in 10 years time!!
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January 27th, 2013 at 4:03 pm 155
From Rob Chipman’s site, the sales so far in FV is 424. At current rate it can add maybe another 125 or so, making it 550. that would be 32% lower than last year’s dismal 799 sales. Last Jan itself was lowest in 10 years excluding the year that should not be mentioned. Fun times.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 4:54 pm 156
Re: Crikey #39
“She can afford to move up whether or not she has existing equity. Why would anybody like her prefer your second scenario, where she has to pay $55 to move up, to the former where she has to pay $45? Who cares about the equity when you are saving $10?”
Well, lots of people don’t have any savings at all beside their home’s equity. Those people may still want to move up and thus prefer the 2nd scenario, as irrational as it may seem.
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January 27th, 2013 at 4:56 pm 157
@ Aleksey:
The article doesn’t say you can surf in English Bay. It says: “wade into the surf”. In this context, surf is a noun. Here is the definition of the word ‘surf’ as a noun, according to Merriam Webster:
1
: the swell of the sea that breaks upon the shore
2
: the foam, splash, and sound of breaking waves”
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/surf
It just means you can wade into the waves at English Bay, which is true.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 5:00 pm 158
Speaking of tax evasion:
I know tons of people renting suites and not declaring the income. Even law enforcement friends who believe that downloading music is wrong and equivalent to theft… I have to remind them that tax evasion is considered a bigger crime. They don’t get it. I also told one of them who had to get his roof re-shingled that if he declared the rental income he could write off a portion of the home maintenance against his income taxes. I’m no accountant so I told him to get advice. But he said – “Nah, I’m not declaring it”
I’m no rat so I don’t want to turn anyone in. But I did write to the revenue minister Gail Shea stating that this is something that CRA is overlooking and really needs to crack down upon. I received a personalized reply and my email was forwarded to CRA officials.
They will probably start cracking down on it after the correction… C’est la vie
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 5:24 pm 159
Maybe the CRA doesn’t bother because once everything is declared and deducted they will either get very little extra or get even less. Not worth it.
What might be worth it would be more closely pursuing stated income loan docs and ensuring the tax returns match.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 5:27 pm 160
“Well, lots of people don’t have any savings at all beside their home’s equity. ”
A home’s equity isn’t savings. Your savings are the excess of your income over your expenses.
The problem is too many people mistake the former for the latter.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 5:31 pm 161
” They don’t get it. ”
What they don’t get is what Jesse said in the following post. Anyway, if you have a rental property you are required to file a T776 whether it’s profitable or not, and there is a penalty for not reporting. But it’s not tax evasion if there’s no income.
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January 27th, 2013 at 5:35 pm 162
“It just means you can wade into the waves at English Bay, which is true.”
I think when such things are written it is implied it would be enjoyable. You could also technically bath in a ditch.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 5:38 pm 163
“The article doesn’t say you can surf in English Bay. It says: “wade into the surf”. In this context, surf is a noun. Here is the definition of the word ‘surf’ as a noun, according to Merriam Webster”
More like serf as a noun, as in:
I bought a house on English Bay with money I didn’t have. I am now underwater and the potential sale price continues to fall, therefore I will live the next 40 years in serfdom.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 5:41 pm 164
@157 Anonymous
Thank you for clarification! I could be lost in the translation, but it doesn’t make their statement valid.
“Ski the North Shore, run the Sea Wall and wade into the surf in English Bay in one day before catching a sunset”. Skiing season on the North Shore usually ends before May. Did you see anybody wading into the English Bay between November and May? Except for January 1st =)
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 6:11 pm 165
No mistake about it, Vancouver, actually most of BC, will eventually go down in history, better known than Tulip Mania.
Short term, next month I see a slight bounce.
Why?
Desperate people will do desperate things.
There are a lot of realtors who haven’t made a sale in months.
Credit cards are maxed out; the BMW brakes are running metal to metal.
The realtors will intensify the cold calls, push the prospects to the limit and manage to broker a few deals by pairing the sellers who finally see it’s time to bail, with some unsuspecting Global TV brainwashed greater fools.
Needles to say, it won’t stop the inevitable.
I also see a huge increase of ICBC personal injury claims, accidental fires, lots, and lots of quick out of the province moves.
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January 27th, 2013 at 6:57 pm 166
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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January 27th, 2013 at 7:08 pm 167
Haha I remember trying out the ski to beach myth one day in March. The beach was colder than the ski hill, with the wind chill. Myth. Busted.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 7:18 pm 168
seth:”Mike Stewart has an ad on this site, that’s hilarious. Why would he spend his money on advertising on a bears site? What an idiot, just like the first time I met him”
Speaking of idiots seth you should look into how google ads work before commenting. The ads you see on this site are based on your previous searches and sites you have visited.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 8:42 pm 169
@Aleksey: “Did you see anybody wading into the English Bay between November and May? Except for January 1st =)”
You’re spot on. It is a ridiculous myth that a lot of Vancouver cheerleaders like to believe, but has no bearing in reality.
Here are some clues for those that believe anybody wades into the surf during the ski season:
Re Second Beach:
“Lifeguards from Victoria Day to Labour Day (late May to early September) ” http://vancouver.ca/parks-recreation-culture/second-beach.aspx
Re Second Beach Pool:
a heated “outdoor swimming pool that is open during the summer months only.” http://vancouver.ca/parks-recreation-culture/second-beach-pool.aspx
Hmm! A mystery! Now why would there be no lifeguards on the beach… and a closed heated outdoor pool… during the for SEVEN months of the year??? You have three guesses, and the first two don’t count.
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January 27th, 2013 at 9:01 pm 170
Those saying you can’t ski and swim same day have obviously never heard of the polar bear swim
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January 27th, 2013 at 9:02 pm 171
“……and wade into the surf in English Bay in one day before catching a sunset……”
Catching a sunset? I’ve been laughing for about three hours about that one! Last time I saw a sunset in Vancouver was about 35 minutes before landing at YVR.
I think the author really meant: watching the sun set on retirement dreams as under water RE ‘investors’ see their net worth sink in that surf.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 9:58 pm 172
@tonight, drinking red wine by the fireplace, we were saying: “we love our home so much, this house is so peaceful and relaxing! ” Then I said: “Well, imagine we owned it, we would be saving to change to roof shingles and the hot water tank, we would still be paying for fixing the furnace (2 weeks ago), the repairs on the gutter (4 months ago) and the drain tiles (last year).” The same place could in fact be a source of constant worries…
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 27th, 2013 at 9:59 pm 173
Bring on that Golden Bear Award! Thin volumes and MLS smoothing/spin will make this tough to predict, but here goes my Uber Bear effort.
Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI (-3%, -7%)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (-4%, -8%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (-3%, -6%)
Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (-5%, -10%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (-5%, -12%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (-5%, -8%)
Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby South SFD (-3%,-6%)
- Coquitlam SFD (-3%,-6%)
- North Van SFD (-4%,-8%)
- New West SFD (-3%,-6%)
- West Van SFD (-4%,-8%)
- Van East SFD (-4%,-8%)
- Van West SFD (-5%,-10%)
- Richmond SFD (-5%,-12%)
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January 27th, 2013 at 10:05 pm 174
Whoops – sory Jesse, one minor tweak:
Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver attached average (-4%, -8%)
I’m struggling getting my head around the low rise attached market. I think it’ll do ok relative to highrise and detached.
Thanks for pulling all this data together!
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January 27th, 2013 at 10:05 pm 175
wow, thanks 604 and VMD!
anyone else, please add your guesses, you don’t need to guess for all categories, just the ones you want.
Looks like there is some solid work here, but nary a bull in sight
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January 27th, 2013 at 10:16 pm 176
I think the pants fall off by August. HPI down 13.29 percent YOY by Jan 1.
SFH -10.6 percent
Attached -16.8 percent
Th -14.1 percent
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January 28th, 2013 at 10:30 am 177
@ Vancouver guy
I liked the 2007 US link. Although I have to say, at that point he already seemed more cautious than our Canadian RE pumper crowd. Calling for a 1 year plus additional correction in FLA, CA and NV.
If you look at what the pumpers are saying in Canada, essentially they are estimating that the market will “ultimately” fall the amount that, if you are on top of real time prices, it has already fallen. No one in the chartered bank/re developer/realtard camp is calling for double digit future declines from here.
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