FFFA! What’s happening to Vancouver Real Estate?

Hey, it’s Friday!

That means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-Lazy admin will add links here soonish.

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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HAM Solo
HAM Solo
7 years ago

@ Vancouver guy

I liked the 2007 US link. Although I have to say, at that point he already seemed more cautious than our Canadian RE pumper crowd. Calling for a 1 year plus additional correction in FLA, CA and NV.

If you look at what the pumpers are saying in Canada, essentially they are estimating that the market will “ultimately” fall the amount that, if you are on top of real time prices, it has already fallen. No one in the chartered bank/re developer/realtard camp is calling for double digit future declines from here.

Arthur Fonzarelli
Arthur Fonzarelli
7 years ago

I think the pants fall off by August. HPI down 13.29 percent YOY by Jan 1.

SFH -10.6 percent
Attached -16.8 percent
Th -14.1 percent

jesse
7 years ago

wow, thanks 604 and VMD!

anyone else, please add your guesses, you don’t need to guess for all categories, just the ones you want.

Looks like there is some solid work here, but nary a bull in sight 🙂

604 Receding Gains
604 Receding Gains
7 years ago

Whoops – sory Jesse, one minor tweak:

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver attached average (-4%, -8%)

I’m struggling getting my head around the low rise attached market. I think it’ll do ok relative to highrise and detached.

Thanks for pulling all this data together!

604 Receding Gains
604 Receding Gains
7 years ago

Bring on that Golden Bear Award! Thin volumes and MLS smoothing/spin will make this tough to predict, but here goes my Uber Bear effort.

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI (-3%, -7%)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (-4%, -8%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (-3%, -6%)

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (-5%, -10%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (-5%, -12%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (-5%, -8%)

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
– Burnaby South SFD (-3%,-6%)
– Coquitlam SFD (-3%,-6%)
– North Van SFD (-4%,-8%)
– New West SFD (-3%,-6%)
– West Van SFD (-4%,-8%)
– Van East SFD (-4%,-8%)
– Van West SFD (-5%,-10%)
– Richmond SFD (-5%,-12%)

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

@tonight, drinking red wine by the fireplace, we were saying: “we love our home so much, this house is so peaceful and relaxing! ” Then I said: “Well, imagine we owned it, we would be saving to change to roof shingles and the hot water tank, we would still be paying for fixing the furnace (2 weeks ago), the repairs on the gutter (4 months ago) and the drain tiles (last year).” The same place could in fact be a source of constant worries…

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

“……and wade into the surf in English Bay in one day before catching a sunset……”

Catching a sunset? I’ve been laughing for about three hours about that one! Last time I saw a sunset in Vancouver was about 35 minutes before landing at YVR.

I think the author really meant: watching the sun set on retirement dreams as under water RE ‘investors’ see their net worth sink in that surf.

Bag it and tag it
Bag it and tag it
7 years ago

Those saying you can’t ski and swim same day have obviously never heard of the polar bear swim 🙂

Crikey
Crikey
7 years ago

@Aleksey: “Did you see anybody wading into the English Bay between November and May? Except for January 1st =)”

You’re spot on. It is a ridiculous myth that a lot of Vancouver cheerleaders like to believe, but has no bearing in reality.

Here are some clues for those that believe anybody wades into the surf during the ski season:

Re Second Beach:
“Lifeguards from Victoria Day to Labour Day (late May to early September) ” http://vancouver.ca/parks-recreation-culture/second-beach.aspx

Re Second Beach Pool:
a heated “outdoor swimming pool that is open during the summer months only.” http://vancouver.ca/parks-recreation-culture/second-beach-pool.aspx

Hmm! A mystery! Now why would there be no lifeguards on the beach… and a closed heated outdoor pool… during the for SEVEN months of the year??? You have three guesses, and the first two don’t count. 😉

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

seth:”Mike Stewart has an ad on this site, that’s hilarious. Why would he spend his money on advertising on a bears site? What an idiot, just like the first time I met him”

Speaking of idiots seth you should look into how google ads work before commenting. The ads you see on this site are based on your previous searches and sites you have visited.

jesse
7 years ago

Haha I remember trying out the ski to beach myth one day in March. The beach was colder than the ski hill, with the wind chill. Myth. Busted.

seth
seth
7 years ago

Mike Stewart has an ad on this site, that’s hilarious. Why would he spend his money on advertising on a bears site? What an idiot, just like the first time I met him 😀

Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
7 years ago

No mistake about it, Vancouver, actually most of BC, will eventually go down in history, better known than Tulip Mania.
Short term, next month I see a slight bounce.

Why?

Desperate people will do desperate things.

There are a lot of realtors who haven’t made a sale in months.

Credit cards are maxed out; the BMW brakes are running metal to metal.

The realtors will intensify the cold calls, push the prospects to the limit and manage to broker a few deals by pairing the sellers who finally see it’s time to bail, with some unsuspecting Global TV brainwashed greater fools.

Needles to say, it won’t stop the inevitable.

I also see a huge increase of ICBC personal injury claims, accidental fires, lots, and lots of quick out of the province moves.

Aleksey
Aleksey
7 years ago

@157 Anonymous

Thank you for clarification! I could be lost in the translation, but it doesn’t make their statement valid.
“Ski the North Shore, run the Sea Wall and wade into the surf in English Bay in one day before catching a sunset”. Skiing season on the North Shore usually ends before May. Did you see anybody wading into the English Bay between November and May? Except for January 1st =)

vancouverguy
vancouverguy
7 years ago

“The article doesn’t say you can surf in English Bay. It says: “wade into the surf”. In this context, surf is a noun. Here is the definition of the word ‘surf’ as a noun, according to Merriam Webster”

More like serf as a noun, as in:

I bought a house on English Bay with money I didn’t have. I am now underwater and the potential sale price continues to fall, therefore I will live the next 40 years in serfdom.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

“It just means you can wade into the waves at English Bay, which is true.”

I think when such things are written it is implied it would be enjoyable. You could also technically bath in a ditch.

patriotz
7 years ago

” They don’t get it. ”

What they don’t get is what Jesse said in the following post. Anyway, if you have a rental property you are required to file a T776 whether it’s profitable or not, and there is a penalty for not reporting. But it’s not tax evasion if there’s no income.

patriotz
7 years ago

“Well, lots of people don’t have any savings at all beside their home’s equity. ”

A home’s equity isn’t savings. Your savings are the excess of your income over your expenses.

The problem is too many people mistake the former for the latter.

jesse
7 years ago

Maybe the CRA doesn’t bother because once everything is declared and deducted they will either get very little extra or get even less. Not worth it.

What might be worth it would be more closely pursuing stated income loan docs and ensuring the tax returns match.

real_professional
7 years ago

Speaking of tax evasion: I know tons of people renting suites and not declaring the income. Even law enforcement friends who believe that downloading music is wrong and equivalent to theft… I have to remind them that tax evasion is considered a bigger crime. They don’t get it. I also told one of them who had to get his roof re-shingled that if he declared the rental income he could write off a portion of the home maintenance against his income taxes. I’m no accountant so I told him to get advice. But he said – “Nah, I’m not declaring it” I’m no rat so I don’t want to turn anyone in. But I did write to the revenue minister Gail Shea stating that this is something that CRA is overlooking and really needs to crack down upon. I received… Read more »

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

@ Aleksey:

The article doesn’t say you can surf in English Bay. It says: “wade into the surf”. In this context, surf is a noun. Here is the definition of the word ‘surf’ as a noun, according to Merriam Webster:

1
: the swell of the sea that breaks upon the shore
2
: the foam, splash, and sound of breaking waves”

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/surf

It just means you can wade into the waves at English Bay, which is true.

gokou3
gokou3
7 years ago

Re: Crikey #39

“She can afford to move up whether or not she has existing equity. Why would anybody like her prefer your second scenario, where she has to pay $55 to move up, to the former where she has to pay $45? Who cares about the equity when you are saving $10?”

Well, lots of people don’t have any savings at all beside their home’s equity. Those people may still want to move up and thus prefer the 2nd scenario, as irrational as it may seem.

canadian
canadian
7 years ago

From Rob Chipman’s site, the sales so far in FV is 424. At current rate it can add maybe another 125 or so, making it 550. that would be 32% lower than last year’s dismal 799 sales. Last Jan itself was lowest in 10 years excluding the year that should not be mentioned. Fun times.

oneangryslav2
oneangryslav2
7 years ago

153:

so $28,0000 rental income on a $1.9 million investment gets you a generous yield of 1.47% with the headache of having to deal with 4 sets of tenants…

wtf are they nuts? most HISA pay better than that.

Ah, but that fourplex will be worth umpteen million dollars in 10 years time!!

vangrl
vangrl
7 years ago

http://www.yattermatters.com/homes-for-sale/?area=Vancouver%2BWest&community=Any&type=Multifamily&bedrooms=Any&bathrooms=Any&minprice=200000&maxprice=20000000&newlistings=1&nonce=5385a43389&search=true&submit_x=94&submit_y=14&prop=V987566

rent $53,400 minus $16,000 in expenses = $37,400 (before being fully taxed on the rental income)….probably net about $28,0000 if they are going to be honest with their taxes. I’m not even going to get into any added expenses that an old triplex might incur.

so $28,0000 rental income on a $1.9 million investment gets you a generous yield of 1.47% with the headache of having to deal with 4 sets of tenants…

wtf are they nuts? most HISA pay better than that.