FFFA! What’s happening to Vancouver Real Estate?

Hey, it’s Friday!

That means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-Lazy admin will add links here soonish.

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Lee
Guest
Lee

“Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-Lazy admin will add links here soonish.”

This already made my weekend :).

patriotz
Member

Don’t blame Boomers if housing goes bust

The headline is wrong, the article is arguing that demographics won’t necessarily cause a RE bust in Canada.

Well sort of – RE busts are all caused by prices out of proportion to rents and incomes and other factors just grease the skids. But he makes no mention of this of course.

PCinWA
Member
PCinWA

Inventory:

January 24, 2011: 10875
January 24, 2012: 13084 (+20.3%)
January 24, 2013: 13806 (+5.5%)

I’m going off of memory, but I think the year-over-year growth in inventory has been accelerating somewhat through January.

PaulB or VHB, is there somewhere where a table of historical daily inventory, new listings, etc., is available to folks like me to download and play around with? Thanks!

southseacompany
Member
Active Member
southseacompany

“The Atlantic” reports on Canada’s bubble:

“The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in … Canada?”

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/the-biggest-housing-bubble-in-the-world-is-in-canada/272499/

“How real is Canada’s housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country’s.”

M
Guest
M

Home sellers are about to find out that it doesn’t matter what they think, the only thing the matters is what the person your selling to thinks as they set the PRICE.

Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE
Guest
Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE

You ready for this?

Goerge Soros says Int Rates Will Spike This Year.

http:www.cnbc.com/id/100401701

Not that I believe it, but been hearing a lot of crap from Tsur and Cam that we would need a catalyst for our market to crash. Anyway, if you want a catalyst to absolutely destroy RE, can’t think of anything more devastating than higher mortgage rates.

When Soros speaks I listen…and he didn’t just say that rates would rise, but SPIKE!

Might have to adjust my entire investment strategy.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@ Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE

But many people are doubting that the US economy is truly on the mend. Many people on Zero Hedge say this is a faked recovery. If the recovery isn’t real, then interest rates can’t rise.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@ Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE

Terrible things are written about George Soros in the comments section of the article you linked to. People are alleging that he is currency manipulator and a tax dodger who took possession of valuable property belonging to deported Jewish people during WWII. He is also accused of bringing down Malaysia’s currency. One commenter says he is foreclosing on homes and sticking taxpayers with the bill through his One West bank.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

“Many people on Zero Hedge say this is a faked recovery”

Shocking! You mean people on Zero Hedge are conspiracy-theorist gold-hoarders?

Aleksey
Guest
Aleksey

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/01/24/apple-bubble-price-target/1862419/

“Yet investors might be frustrated that the analysts are taking down price targets now after the stock has already been pummeled instead of warning investors ahead of time. “There’s a fair amount of herd mentality in the analyst community,” Mian says. “That’s why they (analysts) are usually behind the curve.”

Replace ‘investors’ with ‘home buyers’ and ‘stock’ with ‘houses’ then publish it 2 years from now in Vancouver Sun. Tsur and Muir will be sacrificed by REBGV.

Chabar
Guest
Chabar

Times when developers console realtors, or in other words bullshitahellia…

Metro Vancouver isn’t in a real estate bubble and markets will remain stable in 2013 – as long as interest rates remain low, immigration targets are met and Europe’s economy doesn’t melt down, a panel of real estate developers told more than 1,100 real estate professionals, business leaders and B.C. politicians on Thursday.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Panel+rosy+about+Vancouver+future/7871877/story.html#ixzz2J17rFABU

Wakeup call
Guest
Wakeup call

Anonymous #7

I cannot think of anyone more influential than George Soros even if he is a manipulator, and he cites Europe as more of a cause for the coming rate spike than the US.

Heard similar concerns about Europe and global money printing from Alex Jurshevski on BNN this morning. He also thinks the US housing recovery is premature and is likely to revert back to the down trend.

Lets face it’s a no-brainer that rates will eventually have to go up, but to get a sudden rate spike at a time when the market is already heading down could be a disaster of unprecedented proportions.

rails
Guest
rails

On the other side – you may want to read Gary Shilling – exceptional economist and bond bull. He has a great track record (long-term calls), and he sees rates going nowhere

No Noise
Guest
No Noise
@#4 southseacompany That’s the best quick overview of Canada/Vancouver’s RE situation I’ve read in a while. And a 5 year old Maclean’s link which I had never read from the comments section reminds me of what is so vital for Canada’s politicians to realize: http://www.macleans.ca/canada/national/article.jsp?content=20080507_26032_26032 not to mention: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9815998/Chinas-Communist-party-cadres-launch-property-fire-sale.html The problem is that most politicians are in the pockets of corrupt (or not corrupt) wealthy foreigners wishing to safe-haven their money in Vancouver one way or another – just as self-interested home owners but more likely as promotors of the bubble continuing as long as it can so that the political system, and their careers, will remain status quo. If you are middle class like me and RE affordability is at the top of your list (like me) you will find a political party provincially this May (and federally in… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member
Active Member

Can’t wait to post the stats for the week. As of yesterday, we are trending way way down compared to last year, getting worse compared to last week, and the rate of inventory increase is also going up. If we see sales already stalling at this point, we are in trouble.

However – – I’m still betting we will see a modest pickup which has to occur due to demographics.

What I want to know is how bad it will get before the UDI people who are spewing and spinning will change their tune. I think it would be a serious breath of fresh air if Vancouver was a place to live and the main topic of life is not the value of one’s house.

Beuller
Guest
Beuller

“The Atlantic” reports on Canada’s bubble:

“The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in … Canada?”

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/the-biggest-housing-bubble-in-the-world-is-in-canada/272499/

“How real is Canada’s housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country’s.”

Congratulations to Jim Flaherty and Mark Carney – great job guys. A special thanks to Jason Kenney as well.

No Noise
Guest
No Noise

@#4 southseacompany

oops I failed to attach the best link from the article you posted which supports my theory:

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/economy/rich-chinese-leaving-the-country-and-why-that-matters-to-the-economy.html

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

@VDTF

“Shocking! You mean people on Zero Hedge are conspiracy-theorist gold-hoarders?”

How many of their conspiracy theories need to become conspiracy facts before you lend any weight to them?

VMD
Member

Fraser Valley Jan 1-25 sales 2013 vs 2012
430 vs 598 ( -28% YoY )
Source: Garth’s site

Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy

What happened to Cam “Yellow Helicopter” Good?

He hasn’t updated his twitter since October: https://twitter.com/CamGood

His website, which was promoted as connecting local sellers with HAM is “under construction”: http://thekey.com/

And selling to China has been de-prioritized.

Looks like he’s trying to “pivot” his business strategy. Maybe locals aren’t as stupid as we all assumed?

squeako
Guest
squeako

“Home sellers are about to find out that it doesn’t matter what they think, the only thing the matters is what the person your selling to thinks as they set the PRICE.”

Funny how the tide turns.. :
Reverse it: Home buyers will find out that it doesn’t matter what they think, the only thing the matters is what the person selling thinks as they set the PRICE,and make the final decision.

This is what it sounded about a year ago.. or less
Not that long ago at all.
Oooh how things can change so quickly, mid-flight, in a yellow submarine..oops, helicopter.

shikko
Member

@#18, Groundhog said:
How many of their conspiracy theories need to become conspiracy facts before you lend any weight to them?

You can always give them weight; it’s the direction of effect that changes. If they’re usually wrong, they act as contrarian indicators of reality; if usually right, they’re semi-accurate models of a complex system. About even and they’re no better than coin flips. What’s their cumulative accuracy rate?

Anyone want to do the math to predict the probability of an event based off their previous results? Could be done either for specific posters (probably much easier) or the site as a whole. Could be fun!

I think a prediction bank would be very illuminating.

Wakeup call
Guest
Wakeup call

rails #13

One notable comment I found from Gary Shilling was that his investment themes could “change dramatically” as the year progresses.

VMD
Member

Ming Pao (Major Chinese newspaper) reported today: “China’s New Strict Anti-money-laundering measures deterring potential Vancouver RE Buyers from Wiring Money Overseas ”
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http://www.mingpaotor.com/htm/News/20130125/tbc2.htm?m=0

(On my cell now so I’ll be concise)
– The sentiment among the wealthy people in BeiJing whose income source was questionable, is that of anxiety and panic. They want to wire the (illicit) money overseas, but they fear the government’s current tough anti-money-laundering measures may track them down.
– It has been a popular practice for people to enlist their friends and families to help wire large sums of money overseas, circumventing the $50000//person/year limit. However, recently there have been cases where the government is strictly enforcing anti money laundering measures, banning all those involved from wiring any money overseas for many years.

Businessmen and higher ranking party officials have other ways to wire out money, however.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

“How many of their conspiracy theories need to become conspiracy facts before you lend any weight to them?”

You’d be foolish to either believe everything they say or deny everything they say without taking each point on its own evidence and merits. But you only have to read some of the comments there to understand that there’s a strong bias towards “doomers”.