FFFA! What’s happening to Vancouver Real Estate?

Hey, it’s Friday!

That means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-Lazy admin will add links here soonish.

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Guest
Lee
3 years 12 days ago

“Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-Lazy admin will add links here soonish.”

This already made my weekend :).

patriotz
Member
3 years 12 days ago

Don’t blame Boomers if housing goes bust

The headline is wrong, the article is arguing that demographics won’t necessarily cause a RE bust in Canada.

Well sort of – RE busts are all caused by prices out of proportion to rents and incomes and other factors just grease the skids. But he makes no mention of this of course.

PCinWA
Member
PCinWA
3 years 11 days ago

Inventory:

January 24, 2011: 10875
January 24, 2012: 13084 (+20.3%)
January 24, 2013: 13806 (+5.5%)

I’m going off of memory, but I think the year-over-year growth in inventory has been accelerating somewhat through January.

PaulB or VHB, is there somewhere where a table of historical daily inventory, new listings, etc., is available to folks like me to download and play around with? Thanks!

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
3 years 11 days ago

“The Atlantic” reports on Canada’s bubble:

“The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in … Canada?”

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/the-biggest-housing-bubble-in-the-world-is-in-canada/272499/

“How real is Canada’s housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country’s.”

Guest
M
3 years 11 days ago

Home sellers are about to find out that it doesn’t matter what they think, the only thing the matters is what the person your selling to thinks as they set the PRICE.

Guest
Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE
3 years 11 days ago

You ready for this?

Goerge Soros says Int Rates Will Spike This Year.

http:www.cnbc.com/id/100401701

Not that I believe it, but been hearing a lot of crap from Tsur and Cam that we would need a catalyst for our market to crash. Anyway, if you want a catalyst to absolutely destroy RE, can’t think of anything more devastating than higher mortgage rates.

When Soros speaks I listen…and he didn’t just say that rates would rise, but SPIKE!

Might have to adjust my entire investment strategy.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 days ago

@ Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE

But many people are doubting that the US economy is truly on the mend. Many people on Zero Hedge say this is a faked recovery. If the recovery isn’t real, then interest rates can’t rise.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 days ago

@ Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE

Terrible things are written about George Soros in the comments section of the article you linked to. People are alleging that he is currency manipulator and a tax dodger who took possession of valuable property belonging to deported Jewish people during WWII. He is also accused of bringing down Malaysia’s currency. One commenter says he is foreclosing on homes and sticking taxpayers with the bill through his One West bank.

Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 11 days ago

“Many people on Zero Hedge say this is a faked recovery”

Shocking! You mean people on Zero Hedge are conspiracy-theorist gold-hoarders?

Guest
Aleksey
3 years 11 days ago

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/01/24/apple-bubble-price-target/1862419/

“Yet investors might be frustrated that the analysts are taking down price targets now after the stock has already been pummeled instead of warning investors ahead of time. “There’s a fair amount of herd mentality in the analyst community,” Mian says. “That’s why they (analysts) are usually behind the curve.”

Replace ‘investors’ with ‘home buyers’ and ‘stock’ with ‘houses’ then publish it 2 years from now in Vancouver Sun. Tsur and Muir will be sacrificed by REBGV.

Guest
Chabar
3 years 11 days ago

Times when developers console realtors, or in other words bullshitahellia…

Metro Vancouver isn’t in a real estate bubble and markets will remain stable in 2013 – as long as interest rates remain low, immigration targets are met and Europe’s economy doesn’t melt down, a panel of real estate developers told more than 1,100 real estate professionals, business leaders and B.C. politicians on Thursday.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Panel+rosy+about+Vancouver+future/7871877/story.html#ixzz2J17rFABU

Guest
Wakeup call
3 years 11 days ago

Anonymous #7 I cannot think of anyone more influential than George Soros even if he is a manipulator, and he cites Europe as more of a cause for the coming rate spike than the US. Heard similar concerns about Europe and global money printing from Alex Jurshevski on BNN this morning. He also thinks the US housing recovery is premature and is likely to revert back to the down trend. Lets face it’s a no-brainer that rates will eventually have to go up, but to get a sudden rate spike at a time when the market is already heading down… Read more »

Guest
rails
3 years 11 days ago

On the other side – you may want to read Gary Shilling – exceptional economist and bond bull. He has a great track record (long-term calls), and he sees rates going nowhere

Guest
No Noise
3 years 11 days ago

@#4 southseacompany That’s the best quick overview of Canada/Vancouver’s RE situation I’ve read in a while. And a 5 year old Maclean’s link which I had never read from the comments section reminds me of what is so vital for Canada’s politicians to realize: http://www.macleans.ca/canada/national/article.jsp?content=20080507_26032_26032 not to mention: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9815998/Chinas-Communist-party-cadres-launch-property-fire-sale.html The problem is that most politicians are in the pockets of corrupt (or not corrupt) wealthy foreigners wishing to safe-haven their money in Vancouver one way or another – just as self-interested home owners but more likely as promotors of the bubble continuing as long as it can so that the… Read more »

Member
3 years 11 days ago

Can’t wait to post the stats for the week. As of yesterday, we are trending way way down compared to last year, getting worse compared to last week, and the rate of inventory increase is also going up. If we see sales already stalling at this point, we are in trouble. However – – I’m still betting we will see a modest pickup which has to occur due to demographics. What I want to know is how bad it will get before the UDI people who are spewing and spinning will change their tune. I think it would be a… Read more »

Guest
Beuller
3 years 11 days ago

“The Atlantic” reports on Canada’s bubble:

“The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in … Canada?”

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/the-biggest-housing-bubble-in-the-world-is-in-canada/272499/

“How real is Canada’s housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country’s.”

Congratulations to Jim Flaherty and Mark Carney – great job guys. A special thanks to Jason Kenney as well.

Guest
No Noise
3 years 11 days ago

@#4 southseacompany

oops I failed to attach the best link from the article you posted which supports my theory:

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/economy/rich-chinese-leaving-the-country-and-why-that-matters-to-the-economy.html

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 11 days ago

@VDTF

“Shocking! You mean people on Zero Hedge are conspiracy-theorist gold-hoarders?”

How many of their conspiracy theories need to become conspiracy facts before you lend any weight to them?

VMD
Member
3 years 11 days ago

Fraser Valley Jan 1-25 sales 2013 vs 2012
430 vs 598 ( -28% YoY )
Source: Garth’s site

Guest
Mick Murphy
3 years 11 days ago

What happened to Cam “Yellow Helicopter” Good?

He hasn’t updated his twitter since October: https://twitter.com/CamGood

His website, which was promoted as connecting local sellers with HAM is “under construction”: http://thekey.com/

And selling to China has been de-prioritized.

Looks like he’s trying to “pivot” his business strategy. Maybe locals aren’t as stupid as we all assumed?

Guest
squeako
3 years 11 days ago

“Home sellers are about to find out that it doesn’t matter what they think, the only thing the matters is what the person your selling to thinks as they set the PRICE.” Funny how the tide turns.. : Reverse it: Home buyers will find out that it doesn’t matter what they think, the only thing the matters is what the person selling thinks as they set the PRICE,and make the final decision. This is what it sounded about a year ago.. or less Not that long ago at all. Oooh how things can change so quickly, mid-flight, in a yellow… Read more »

Member
3 years 11 days ago

@#18, Groundhog said: How many of their conspiracy theories need to become conspiracy facts before you lend any weight to them? You can always give them weight; it’s the direction of effect that changes. If they’re usually wrong, they act as contrarian indicators of reality; if usually right, they’re semi-accurate models of a complex system. About even and they’re no better than coin flips. What’s their cumulative accuracy rate? Anyone want to do the math to predict the probability of an event based off their previous results? Could be done either for specific posters (probably much easier) or the site… Read more »

Guest
Wakeup call
3 years 11 days ago

rails #13

One notable comment I found from Gary Shilling was that his investment themes could “change dramatically” as the year progresses.

VMD
Member
3 years 11 days ago

Ming Pao (Major Chinese newspaper) reported today: “China’s New Strict Anti-money-laundering measures deterring potential Vancouver RE Buyers from Wiring Money Overseas ” http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http://www.mingpaotor.com/htm/News/20130125/tbc2.htm?m=0 (On my cell now so I’ll be concise) – The sentiment among the wealthy people in BeiJing whose income source was questionable, is that of anxiety and panic. They want to wire the (illicit) money overseas, but they fear the government’s current tough anti-money-laundering measures may track them down. – It has been a popular practice for people to enlist their friends and families to help wire large sums of money overseas, circumventing the $50000//person/year limit. However,… Read more »

Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 11 days ago

“How many of their conspiracy theories need to become conspiracy facts before you lend any weight to them?”

You’d be foolish to either believe everything they say or deny everything they say without taking each point on its own evidence and merits. But you only have to read some of the comments there to understand that there’s a strong bias towards “doomers”.

Guest
No Noise
3 years 11 days ago

@#24 VMD

Thanks VMD. And we’ve all learned through the Economist how Macau is used to get money out of China:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_wYFfE_R0w

Here’s the other pertinent link which came along with yours:

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mingpaotor.com%2Fhtm%2FNews%2F20130125%2Ftbc1.htm%3Fm%3D0

Too bad the microsoft translations are so horrible but we get the gist. Now the question is – can the Canadian Government do anything to prevent this illegally laundered money from arriving in Canada? Would they want to do anything?

Guest
Beuller
3 years 11 days ago

“Now the question is – can the Canadian Government do anything to prevent this illegally laundered money from arriving in Canada?”

Are you kidding? It’s probably the only thing that has kept BC afloat for the last 2 decades. The Canadian Government is falling over themselves to try to get MORE of the illegally laundered money to arrive in Canada. Immigration basically selling citizenship to “entrepreneurs” is a case in point. While people that could actually contribute something to Canada culturally and economically and LEGALLY flap in the wind.

RaggedyRenter
Member
RaggedyRenter
3 years 11 days ago

@Mick Murphy Don’t forget Private Listing Service (www.pls.ca) @No Noise Exactly why would the Canadian government reject foreign money? Money earned elsewhere enters Canada, it creates a demand on our funny plastic monopoly money, it is spent on housing, goods and services consumption, taxes (sales), creates jobs and thus taxes (income). It is very hard to prove the origin of money is illegal, expensive courts and lawyers ensue, and if it is confiscated it will need to be returned to the foreign government. Much expense with nothing to gain. Ethically this is wrong but you can see why the government… Read more »

Guest
No Noise
3 years 11 days ago

@27 Beuller

I agree that this is a major reason Vancouver RE is a bubble now – although the Conservatives are obviously trying to decrease public debt/prevent bubble popping before interest rates rise as well as possibly shifting immigration to middle class trades people (although there’s been no elaboration on the plan for the investor immigration program – just that it’s on hold for now).

VMD
Member
3 years 11 days ago

@ no noise The article you linked to has met quite a bit of criticism on Chinese forums. 1. The “spring uptick” “news” was the opinions of “several anonymous realtors” 2. Realtor “Liu Yi” quoted in the article was the infamous one who advertised himself as Realtor,Ph.D . He is well known in the online community to be the one writing baseless pump pieces for RE websites and publications. His column is the only one closed to commenting because too many people come to pick apart his “arguments” . But because he is a paid advertiser, he can keep pumping… Read more »

RaggedyRenter
Member
RaggedyRenter
3 years 11 days ago

@Beuller Immigration basically selling citizenship to “entrepreneurs” is a case in point. While people that could actually contribute something to Canada culturally and economically and LEGALLY flap in the wind. Those were Liberal governments in the past, we were the most gullible country on the face of the earth. Our immigration policies are ass-backwards and stupid. Jason Kenney is surgically changing this bit by bit after Conservatives got majority. He makes it easier for: 1. Student educated in Canadian universities 2. Young professionals with arranged employment 3. People with higher likelihood to be successful (English speaking, university degree, work experience,… Read more »

Guest
No Noise
3 years 11 days ago

Wow VMD 8 downvotes in a few minutes! Liu Yi must have a lot of supporters and you touched a nerve! Or he just ordered Belarus to black-ping your downvotes! HAHAHAHAHAHA one of those 2 measly upvotes was from me of course.

Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 11 days ago

I can confirm the presence of a little fresh HAM in town … although the ones I have encountered are actually not interested in real estate.

Although sales are low, it is curious to see fairly anaemic listing activity (although listings don’t include condo completions which would otherwise goose the total). Anyone care to play the title role in the Hardy Boys and the Case of the Lost Listings?

patriotz
Member
3 years 11 days ago

” The Australians are way ahead of us on this one already. Many, many countries in the world have strict rules regarding foreign investment which prices citizens out.”

Australia has a worse bubble than Canada, and just like Canada’s, it’s the result of government policies that promote home ownership and encourage speculation. Its token restrictions on foreign ownership are just a smokescreen. And so are restrictions on foreign ownership everywhere else.

If a country has truly effective measures against RE overvalulation, like Germany, no foreign ownership restrictions are needed.

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 11 days ago

@Ham Solo

“Anyone care to play the title role in the Hardy Boys and the Case of the Lost Listings?”

Could simply be that we’re already at a high inventory level…And besides, inventory has been increasing at a high rate compared to other years anyways as was posted yesterday in the updated inventory graph.
http://vancouverpeak.com/attachment.php?aid=16

Guest
No Noise
3 years 11 days ago

@ patriotz

Great! And I’ve heard you mention Germany before but never heard how they do it. Please elaborate. And how is it that Japans RE has gone down so low for so long? Probably spoken of many times on VCI but I’ve just not heard. Thx.

VMD
Member
3 years 11 days ago

@ no noise: I deal with much worse everyday over in Chinese forums, trying not to mention vci to prevent unwanted spam/ attacks. The perma-bulls are quite irritated (maybe even depressed?) these days. And I just keep pressing. Someone even made a thread yesterday asking me to stop posting all these below-assessed sale prices because “they are not reflective of the real market”. He cited several “above-assessed” Westside sales, only to be debunked minutes later by others as comparing sale price of new houses with assessment of previous old tear-downs. Bulls are touchy these days – which makes them even… Read more »

patriotz
Member
3 years 11 days ago

” the investor immigration program – just that it’s on hold for now ”

It’s new applications that are on hold, not the arrivals. There are enough in the queue to last 10 years or so.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/12/07/f-rich-immigrant-investor-limbo.html

Also the provinces have their own programs with their own rules.

patriotz
Member
3 years 11 days ago

” I’ve heard you mention Germany before but never heard how they do it. ”

Very restrictive rules on mortgages and a speculation tax.

“And how is it that Japans RE has gone down so low for so long?”

Japanese RE isn’t that low really, just compared to the bubble. I think the reasons the decline has taken so long are a lack of overbuilding (very strict development controls), the world’s lowest interest rates, and a culture that discourages mortgage defaults. But the decline did happen anyway.

Guest
No Noise
3 years 11 days ago

@patriotz

Thanks!

@#37 VMD

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA love it

Guest
No Noise
3 years 11 days ago

@39 Patriotz

Speculation tax of course! What would it take to gain the political will for that to happen in Canada? Public outrage/incident as previously mentioned I suppose. Get loud and vote wisely people..

ps speaking of a new tax – I can see taxation of illegal rental suites coming as govts suffer during the downturn – that’ll drop Canadian RE especially in Van that has so many

patriotz
Member
3 years 11 days ago

Chinese-owned employers and indentured workers hit the news again – this time in Alberta:

Largest workplace fine in Alberta history for oil giant’s role in the death of two Chinese workers

Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
3 years 11 days ago

just when i thought the comments section was getting good today we get a wave of crap posts in the last hour from mr crappy himself… or should i say himzelf.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 days ago

Why Chinese are not buying Japan RE? It is closer to homeland and safe to launder and park money.

Guest
No Noise
3 years 11 days ago

@44

I’m quite certain Japan doesnt allow immigration of most sorts – I would think Chinese billionaires have a way of getting some $$ in but the Japanese keep a close eye on everything that happens – from the quality of the rice on your plate to this. Culturally, they put up with no BS whether its politically incorrect or not, unlike Canada.

Guest
JR
3 years 11 days ago

I’m pretty sure Austria does not allow foreigners to own RE there. My understanding with Germany is the ownership rate is so low because nobody wants to sell, it’s an old world type of thing.

Guest
Q
3 years 11 days ago

The Canada Post building in Downtown Vancouver has been sold for a rumoured $130 million. I wonder if this site is going to be developed into condos–it’s prime land right next to the Vancouver Public Library Central Branch.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Downtown+Vancouver+post+office+branch+sold/7874334/story.html

VMD
Member
3 years 11 days ago

Bob Rennie offers life lessons to Vancouver students
http://www.straight.com/news/345121/bob-rennie-offers-life-lessons-vancouver-students

“Rennie revealed that his company recently turned down an opportunity to market a downtown tower being built by an out-of-town billionaire. It was due to the man’s personality.”

Riiight….

Guest
Silverfish City
3 years 11 days ago

About the whole HAM thing: at a previous job, we outsourced our circuit board printing to China (Hangzhou). I made a bunch of trips over there to deal with various things and got to know a few of the guys I worked with. Keep in mind, this was several years ago so these thoughts might no longer apply: 1. Everyone I got to know (on a professional level, since we had translators we never became all that close) is semi-obsessed with real estate. It’s very culturally important to own your own place. You probably won’t find a wife otherwise. 2.… Read more »

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 days ago

…“Rennie revealed that his company recently turned down an opportunity to market a downtown tower being built by an out-of-town billionaire. It was due to the man’s personality.”..

Who’s personality, Bob’s or the other dude’s?

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