Home and Condo sales battle map

VMD has been busy over at the new Vancouver Peak Forum uploading new Battle of Vancouver maps.

These maps show the increase or decline in year-over-year REBGV home price index (The Benchmark or HPI).

There are maps for both the condo market and for single family homes in the lower mainland, along with a few historical maps for comparison.

Here’s the map for SFH, showing big changes in South Surrey and UBC:

Battle_of_GV_SFH_2012_12_arrow

And here’s the map for Condos, which looks similar but the big changes are in South Surrey but Bull forces are firmly entrenched in Guilford and Pitt Meadows.

Battle_of_GV_Condo_2012_12

 

Here’s the original discussion thread for the Condo map and for the SFH map.

You can find more great creations and analysis from VMD over at greaterfoolvancouver.

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
VMD
Member

Thanks Pope! Just to make sure, blue tanks are the “good guys”!

From October to December, the following areas have been “liberated” to becoming HPI YoY-Negative territories:

SFH: West Van, North Van, South Surrey & White Rock, New West, Burnaby N&E, Tsawwassen. (Van East and Burnaby S are imminently becoming YoY Negative, making the entire area West of Coquitlam and North of Delta a sea of blue.)

Condo: Van West. (North Van and possibly Van East may turn YoY Neg very soon, leaving the only YoY Positive areas being Burnaby E and the outlying Port Moody, N Surrey, Pitt Meadows & Langley)

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks

Further clarification in who’s at the bottom of the pecking order from the Vancouver Sun: Single-family homes still winners in property price race.

We have it from other media that Everybody But Vancouver Will Be Fine, Perhaps Excluding Toronto Condos Also. This article clarifies that Vancouver SFH Is Fine Too, It’s Just Vancouver Condos That Suck.

For those of you holding your breath, here’s the big reveal:

“The resource that is scarce is land,” said Tsur Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate, Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C. “You can always build more condominiums, but if you want a backyard, there’s a limited space.”

Spectacular research, Dr. S.

Again, heavy use of 5-year changes in valuation, as if flat 5-year pricing represents a triumphant ROI and all that year-over-year stuff he used to quote was just noise.

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

Good work, VMD.

I hope CBC and Globe and Mail can use them.

patriotz
Member

“The resource that is scarce is land,” said Tsur Somerville

Scarcity of something is measured by how much it costs to use. For example, Sidney Crosby gets paid a lot of money because people like him are really scarce.

Does it cost more to use (i.e. rent) land in Vancouver than in other big Canadian cities?

Yes in the future the value of use of the land may increase, but there’s no credible scenario where the present value of future use justifies today’s price. Tsur teaches a course which deals with this, so he knows this as well as anyone else.

/dev/null
Member
/dev/null

This looks like it’s only for Toronto at the moment, but it’s an interesting (and potentially disruptive?) business model. They provide detailed listings and neighbourhood information and sales staff (“Angels” heh) that are not commissioned. Staff are paid based on customer satisfaction bonuses and you get 25% rebate on the realtor commission. Too bad there’s still a traditional realtor on the seller’s end, skimming off the big commission. Is this similar to some of the outfits in the US?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/starting-out/buying-a-home-brokerage-offers-more-listings-than-mls-with-no-commission/article6995343/

Mr. Hamidi teamed up with two other technologists and one realtor to found TheRedPin.com, a brokerage with a business model that they hope will turn the market on its ear: a customer-service oriented, web-friendly firm where agents aren’t commissioned, but rather salaried and given bonuses for customer satisfaction.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks

@Patriotz: Don’t take this the wrong way, but I’m starting to doubt your faith in Somerville’s media persona.

JR
Guest
JR

It’s funny, land for building SFH in Seattle and SF is just as limited, possibly if not more, and they saw huge loses of 30 to 37%, if not more. Condos decreased, at least in Seattle, almost 50%. How many Fortune 500 companies are in those cities compared to Vancouver? Seattle also saw an increasing GDP during the recession.

I’m surprised Maple Ridge and Langley have not gone down, they are ground centrals for overbuilding. My assumption is the only thing propping them up at this point is it’s the only place resembling affordability.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
@Patriotz Re: your message yesterday on the previous post: “US has crossed the line where theyre now comparable to Japan. ” They’re not at all comparable to Japan. Japan is one of the world’s biggest creditors and their government does not borrow from foreign lenders. If you thought Japan is doing fine, you might want to think again… Japan’s Growing Sovereign Debt Time Bomb In recent decades, Japanese governments have piled up debts worth some €11 trillion ($14.6 trillion). This corresponds to 230 percent of annual gross domestic product, a debt level that is far higher than Greece’s 165 percent. (…) Unlike countries in the euro zone, Japan borrows most of its money from its own people. Domestic banks and insurers have purchased 95 percent of the country’s sovereign debt using the savings deposits of the general population. What’s more,… Read more »
VHB
Member
VHB

Just added VW SFH public MLS historical daily inventory chart to the forum here: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Inventory-Graphs?pid=160#pid160

The big run-up in VW in 2012 happened in January. +300 units in one month, then stagnated at 800 for 60 days before resuming a slower-paced upward march to 1000.

What do you think–will we see the same kind of wild +300 inventory run-up in January 2013 for VW SFH? Or will inventory growth be more measured?

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

Cool map. What happened to that condo unsold index thing you guys used to have? What was it called? …. the C.U.N.T index or something?

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

Re #2:

“This article clarifies that Vancouver SFH Is Fine Too, It’s Just Vancouver Condos That Suck.”

So I wonder if COV condo prices go to hell and a 2000SF unit is available for $400k (or more generally speaking, $200/SF), I wonder if those SFH of same size and neigbhourhood would still be selling in the $800k ($400/SF).

I bet not. Maybe those with Ph.D disagree.

vanpire
Guest
vanpire
Yesterday I visited two of Surrey’s newly launched townhouse projects. Some observations: -the finishing level, appliances quality, the kitchen cabinetry and generally all hardware is leaps and bounds superior to what I saw the last time I looked at brand new townhome (apprx. 5 years ago). -both sales brochures explain the effort to achieve the units’ excellent sound insulation in great detail. I have to say, the places I saw felt very solid and quiet – the prices are now advertised as “excluding” taxes. I guess with the HST soon to be defunct, and general perception that it was 12% of the price that “net of HST” sales strategies were saving the buyer, including tax that is now cut in half no longer makes the price look attractive. Although it is all about “perceived” value – the tax paid will… Read more »
vancouverguy
Guest
vancouverguy

Don’t worry, Canada. The government and the banks have everything under control. Just continue going about your business and paying your mortgages. Nothing to see here. Put your trust in the chief executive of TD bank. He even has on a nice suit, which is quite comforting.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/07/why-tds-ed-clark-says-canada-isnt-heading-for-a-u-s-style-housing-bust/

Domocrass
Guest
Domocrass
There is a great post today at http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/ He compares the percentage declines in US cities at the 6 month post peak and 12 month post peak marks and compares them to the current Vancouver decline. Compared to the US housing crash, Vancouver’s crash is really, really bad. Here is a snipit: “Now, where does the Vancouver West detached home sit in comparison to these numbers? First of all, if you are a home owner like myself then you should probably sit down. OK, ready? Our peak month according to the MLS Home Price Index was April 2012 and 6 months later we were down 8.6%, so 50% HIGHER THAN ANY AMERICAN CITY. After 8 months we are now down 11.1% which, with 4 months to go in the period, is much higher than all US cities other than Miami.… Read more »
VHB
Member
VHB

@goku3

Interesting thing–condo inventory for areas I track is starting 2013 below where it was in 2012 and 2011. SFH for areas I track is starting higher. If there are big MoI’s out there, they are in SFH not condos. So far, anyway.

Loon
Guest
Loon

Mark Carney to get annual $400,000 housing allowance from Bank of England – http://www.canadianbusiness.com/blogs-and-comment/mark-carney-housing-allowance-bank-of-england/

How ironic.

@VHB
Guest
@VHB

shut up.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
Richmond Realtor’s humour… My Response to the MacLeans Magazine Cover Article As usual, the general press when trying to get into the specifics of a particular industry without any detailed knowledge of same creates eye popping headlines which are of more relevance to its business than to the target of its supposed study.True the average observer may have had his head in the sand in Vancouver, but the market has already moved down some 25% depending upon the particular sector and being right in the middle of it, I detect a renewed vigor among buyers as of the end of November. Many listed properties in our market are owned by sellers who do not have to sell and skew the sales to active listing statistical ratio. I see prices holding firm and buyers coming back in. The effect of all… Read more »
HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
Thinking through whether we are seeing signs of recession in broader economy: -The Canadian unemployment rate, which may not be measured particularly accurately, has held steady, but Cdn wage growth has disappeared http://ow.ly/i/1kv7Y – Housing starts … may have helped to keep Canada job growth positive, at least until recently. However, housing starts beginning to move from a positive factor to a negative one… especially in BC, where the y-o-y comp is -15% with a declining trend. Given what we know is happening in Ontario wrt condos, it shouldn’t be many months until condos are a national headwind. http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64695/64695_2012_M12.pdf?fr=1357590540312 If the province of BC were in a recession, wouldn’t there be a series of negative surprises in provincial government finances? Well, yes actually, there are… http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/11/28/bc-budget-deficit.html – What about Investment activity in the oilsands. A really big driver of high… Read more »
patriotz
Member

“If you thought Japan is doing fine”

I didn’t say that at all. I was responding to someone who was saying that the US would likely see low interest rates going forward like Japan has seen from 1990. The US’s situation today is nothing like Japan’s in 1990.

The part of my post that you quoted is factually correct, and it was and is one of the big differences between Japan and the US.

A very likely outcome to the debt crisis you project for Japan is a rise in US – and Canadian – interest rates.

jesse
Member

” Kyle Bass talking”

Bassmasters, It’s A Fishing Show

Feel free to chalk this up as an obnoxious victory lap, but I thought this was worth a look. As I pointed out over a year ago Kyle Bass seems to have become victim of the great widow maker macro trade of the century. The exceptional quant team at Nomura, which has produced some of my favorite charts, decided to highlight some problems with the short JGB trade.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

Vancouver’s housing gets a little less attractive as of Feb 15th…for foreigners.

Presently, foreigners can get free health care by using a relative’s Carecard at a Medical walk-In_clinic. New cards will have picture on it so getting free health care for the unqualified gets a little harder.

I know of one instance where a person from the USA got an operation here under someone else’s name. I’m sure this problem is widespread and thats why we pay MSP Premiums.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-id-services-card-to-replace-carecard-in-bc-starting-in-february/article6999709/

HFHC
Guest
HFHC

A while back someone wrote a letter about tax evasion to their MP. (Sorry I can’t remember who it was) but I had copied it and sent it to my MP. I just got the response.

Thank you for your email. I appreciate hearing your concerns regarding illegal rental suites, and the potential income being generated and undeclared to the Canada Revenue Agency. I share your frustration with this form of tax evasion and sympathize with honest tax payers that do declare, and pay tax on, their rental suite income.

In light of her ministerial responsibilities, I have taken the liberty of forwarding a copy of our correspondence to the Honourable Gail Shea, Minister of National Revenue and Minister Responsible for the Canada Revenue Agency, for her review and consideration.

Please accept my best wishes.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Jesse

From the same blog

(…) but as many asymmetrical negative carry trades before it, he [Bass]may simply be early to a serious shift that proves lucrative to his clients.

Timing the market is an art, not a science, as we all know it here…

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

@patriotz

To clarify, I don’t think US rates will stay low forever, I think US rates will stay low until suddenly they aren’t which will cause severe problems and real structural changes in the country. That being said, like Japan, the status quo of low rates will probably be maintained for quite a while longer yet and while they are our interest rates will stay low as well.

When US rates do see any significant rise I think it will be sudden and market driven.

wpDiscuz