Home and Condo sales battle map

VMD has been busy over at the new Vancouver Peak Forum uploading new Battle of Vancouver maps.

These maps show the increase or decline in year-over-year REBGV home price index (The Benchmark or HPI).

There are maps for both the condo market and for single family homes in the lower mainland, along with a few historical maps for comparison.

Here’s the map for SFH, showing big changes in South Surrey and UBC:

Battle_of_GV_SFH_2012_12_arrow

And here’s the map for Condos, which looks similar but the big changes are in South Surrey but Bull forces are firmly entrenched in Guilford and Pitt Meadows.

Battle_of_GV_Condo_2012_12

 

Here’s the original discussion thread for the Condo map and for the SFH map.

You can find more great creations and analysis from VMD over at greaterfoolvancouver.

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VMD
Member
3 years 1 month ago

Thanks Pope! Just to make sure, blue tanks are the “good guys”! From October to December, the following areas have been “liberated” to becoming HPI YoY-Negative territories: SFH: West Van, North Van, South Surrey & White Rock, New West, Burnaby N&E, Tsawwassen. (Van East and Burnaby S are imminently becoming YoY Negative, making the entire area West of Coquitlam and North of Delta a sea of blue.) Condo: Van West. (North Van and possibly Van East may turn YoY Neg very soon, leaving the only YoY Positive areas being Burnaby E and the outlying Port Moody, N Surrey, Pitt Meadows… Read more »

Guest
Many Franks
3 years 1 month ago

Further clarification in who’s at the bottom of the pecking order from the Vancouver Sun: Single-family homes still winners in property price race. We have it from other media that Everybody But Vancouver Will Be Fine, Perhaps Excluding Toronto Condos Also. This article clarifies that Vancouver SFH Is Fine Too, It’s Just Vancouver Condos That Suck. For those of you holding your breath, here’s the big reveal:”The resource that is scarce is land,” said Tsur Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate, Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C. “You can always build more… Read more »

Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode
3 years 1 month ago

Good work, VMD.

I hope CBC and Globe and Mail can use them.

patriotz
Member
3 years 1 month ago

“The resource that is scarce is land,” said Tsur Somerville

Scarcity of something is measured by how much it costs to use. For example, Sidney Crosby gets paid a lot of money because people like him are really scarce.

Does it cost more to use (i.e. rent) land in Vancouver than in other big Canadian cities?

Yes in the future the value of use of the land may increase, but there’s no credible scenario where the present value of future use justifies today’s price. Tsur teaches a course which deals with this, so he knows this as well as anyone else.

Member
/dev/null
3 years 1 month ago

This looks like it’s only for Toronto at the moment, but it’s an interesting (and potentially disruptive?) business model. They provide detailed listings and neighbourhood information and sales staff (“Angels” heh) that are not commissioned. Staff are paid based on customer satisfaction bonuses and you get 25% rebate on the realtor commission. Too bad there’s still a traditional realtor on the seller’s end, skimming off the big commission. Is this similar to some of the outfits in the US? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/starting-out/buying-a-home-brokerage-offers-more-listings-than-mls-with-no-commission/article6995343/ Mr. Hamidi teamed up with two other technologists and one realtor to found TheRedPin.com, a brokerage with a business model… Read more »

Guest
Many Franks
3 years 1 month ago

@Patriotz: Don’t take this the wrong way, but I’m starting to doubt your faith in Somerville’s media persona.

Guest
JR
3 years 1 month ago

It’s funny, land for building SFH in Seattle and SF is just as limited, possibly if not more, and they saw huge loses of 30 to 37%, if not more. Condos decreased, at least in Seattle, almost 50%. How many Fortune 500 companies are in those cities compared to Vancouver? Seattle also saw an increasing GDP during the recession.

I’m surprised Maple Ridge and Langley have not gone down, they are ground centrals for overbuilding. My assumption is the only thing propping them up at this point is it’s the only place resembling affordability.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 1 month ago

@Patriotz Re: your message yesterday on the previous post: “US has crossed the line where theyre now comparable to Japan. ” They’re not at all comparable to Japan. Japan is one of the world’s biggest creditors and their government does not borrow from foreign lenders. If you thought Japan is doing fine, you might want to think again… Japan’s Growing Sovereign Debt Time Bomb In recent decades, Japanese governments have piled up debts worth some €11 trillion ($14.6 trillion). This corresponds to 230 percent of annual gross domestic product, a debt level that is far higher than Greece’s 165 percent.… Read more »

Member
VHB
3 years 1 month ago

Just added VW SFH public MLS historical daily inventory chart to the forum here: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Inventory-Graphs?pid=160#pid160

The big run-up in VW in 2012 happened in January. +300 units in one month, then stagnated at 800 for 60 days before resuming a slower-paced upward march to 1000.

What do you think–will we see the same kind of wild +300 inventory run-up in January 2013 for VW SFH? Or will inventory growth be more measured?

Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
3 years 1 month ago

Cool map. What happened to that condo unsold index thing you guys used to have? What was it called? …. the C.U.N.T index or something?

Guest
gokou3
3 years 1 month ago

Re #2:

“This article clarifies that Vancouver SFH Is Fine Too, It’s Just Vancouver Condos That Suck.”

So I wonder if COV condo prices go to hell and a 2000SF unit is available for $400k (or more generally speaking, $200/SF), I wonder if those SFH of same size and neigbhourhood would still be selling in the $800k ($400/SF).

I bet not. Maybe those with Ph.D disagree.

Guest
vanpire
3 years 1 month ago

Yesterday I visited two of Surrey’s newly launched townhouse projects. Some observations: -the finishing level, appliances quality, the kitchen cabinetry and generally all hardware is leaps and bounds superior to what I saw the last time I looked at brand new townhome (apprx. 5 years ago). -both sales brochures explain the effort to achieve the units’ excellent sound insulation in great detail. I have to say, the places I saw felt very solid and quiet – the prices are now advertised as “excluding” taxes. I guess with the HST soon to be defunct, and general perception that it was 12%… Read more »

Guest
vancouverguy
3 years 1 month ago

Don’t worry, Canada. The government and the banks have everything under control. Just continue going about your business and paying your mortgages. Nothing to see here. Put your trust in the chief executive of TD bank. He even has on a nice suit, which is quite comforting.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/07/why-tds-ed-clark-says-canada-isnt-heading-for-a-u-s-style-housing-bust/

Guest
Domocrass
3 years 1 month ago

There is a great post today at http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/ He compares the percentage declines in US cities at the 6 month post peak and 12 month post peak marks and compares them to the current Vancouver decline. Compared to the US housing crash, Vancouver’s crash is really, really bad. Here is a snipit: “Now, where does the Vancouver West detached home sit in comparison to these numbers? First of all, if you are a home owner like myself then you should probably sit down. OK, ready? Our peak month according to the MLS Home Price Index was April 2012 and 6… Read more »

Member
VHB
3 years 1 month ago

@goku3

Interesting thing–condo inventory for areas I track is starting 2013 below where it was in 2012 and 2011. SFH for areas I track is starting higher. If there are big MoI’s out there, they are in SFH not condos. So far, anyway.

Guest
Loon
3 years 1 month ago

Mark Carney to get annual $400,000 housing allowance from Bank of England – http://www.canadianbusiness.com/blogs-and-comment/mark-carney-housing-allowance-bank-of-england/

How ironic.

Guest
@VHB
3 years 1 month ago

shut up.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 1 month ago

Richmond Realtor’s humour… My Response to the MacLeans Magazine Cover Article As usual, the general press when trying to get into the specifics of a particular industry without any detailed knowledge of same creates eye popping headlines which are of more relevance to its business than to the target of its supposed study.True the average observer may have had his head in the sand in Vancouver, but the market has already moved down some 25% depending upon the particular sector and being right in the middle of it, I detect a renewed vigor among buyers as of the end of… Read more »

Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 1 month ago

Thinking through whether we are seeing signs of recession in broader economy: -The Canadian unemployment rate, which may not be measured particularly accurately, has held steady, but Cdn wage growth has disappeared http://ow.ly/i/1kv7Y – Housing starts … may have helped to keep Canada job growth positive, at least until recently. However, housing starts beginning to move from a positive factor to a negative one… especially in BC, where the y-o-y comp is -15% with a declining trend. Given what we know is happening in Ontario wrt condos, it shouldn’t be many months until condos are a national headwind. http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64695/64695_2012_M12.pdf?fr=1357590540312 If… Read more »

patriotz
Member
3 years 1 month ago

“If you thought Japan is doing fine”

I didn’t say that at all. I was responding to someone who was saying that the US would likely see low interest rates going forward like Japan has seen from 1990. The US’s situation today is nothing like Japan’s in 1990.

The part of my post that you quoted is factually correct, and it was and is one of the big differences between Japan and the US.

A very likely outcome to the debt crisis you project for Japan is a rise in US – and Canadian – interest rates.

jesse
Member
3 years 1 month ago

” Kyle Bass talking”

Bassmasters, It’s A Fishing Show

Feel free to chalk this up as an obnoxious victory lap, but I thought this was worth a look. As I pointed out over a year ago Kyle Bass seems to have become victim of the great widow maker macro trade of the century. The exceptional quant team at Nomura, which has produced some of my favorite charts, decided to highlight some problems with the short JGB trade.

Guest
RealityCheck
3 years 1 month ago

Vancouver’s housing gets a little less attractive as of Feb 15th…for foreigners.

Presently, foreigners can get free health care by using a relative’s Carecard at a Medical walk-In_clinic. New cards will have picture on it so getting free health care for the unqualified gets a little harder.

I know of one instance where a person from the USA got an operation here under someone else’s name. I’m sure this problem is widespread and thats why we pay MSP Premiums.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-id-services-card-to-replace-carecard-in-bc-starting-in-february/article6999709/

Guest
HFHC
3 years 1 month ago

A while back someone wrote a letter about tax evasion to their MP. (Sorry I can’t remember who it was) but I had copied it and sent it to my MP. I just got the response. Thank you for your email. I appreciate hearing your concerns regarding illegal rental suites, and the potential income being generated and undeclared to the Canada Revenue Agency. I share your frustration with this form of tax evasion and sympathize with honest tax payers that do declare, and pay tax on, their rental suite income. In light of her ministerial responsibilities, I have taken the… Read more »

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 1 month ago

@Jesse

From the same blog

(…) but as many asymmetrical negative carry trades before it, he [Bass]may simply be early to a serious shift that proves lucrative to his clients.

Timing the market is an art, not a science, as we all know it here…

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 1 month ago

@patriotz

To clarify, I don’t think US rates will stay low forever, I think US rates will stay low until suddenly they aren’t which will cause severe problems and real structural changes in the country. That being said, like Japan, the status quo of low rates will probably be maintained for quite a while longer yet and while they are our interest rates will stay low as well.

When US rates do see any significant rise I think it will be sudden and market driven.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

…..”How about producing actual new data to back up the hype?”….

Oh, the irony!

Sorry dude: there wasn’t any data to back the hype on the way up and you’re too stupid to see what the data predicts on the way down.

Yes, I will have fries with that.

jesse
Member
3 years 1 month ago

“Timing the market is an art, not a science”

Bass has, to date, lost a lot of money for his clients. If you’re short JPY I hope you know what you’re doing. I have no qualms admitting I don’t.

Guest
vancouverguy
3 years 1 month ago

“Presently, foreigners can get free health care by using a relative’s Carecard at a Medical walk-In_clinic. New cards will have picture on it so getting free health care for the unqualified gets a little harder.” The idea makes sense, but unfortunately will still likely be misused. I can’t see physicians offices inspecting the picture carefully and then calling patient’s out on it. It would be potentially offensive to the patient (which could lead to a college complaint), and has zero upside for the medical practice. Truth is, if the patient gets photo ID from a patient with the same gender… Read more »

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 1 month ago

@jesse

“Bass has, to date, lost a lot of money for his clients.”
Actually, that’s not true. His Hayman Capital Master returned 10.5% in 2012, after a paltry 1.8% in 2011. Sure his JPY short has not worked well for him so far… As an old professor kept repeating me, what matters are the assumptions.

Page 3 of this document: http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rR5RAJp5IuR8

As far as shorting JPY, I’m not a sophisticated investor, just a guy that likes crunching numbers on spreadsheets. So far it has worked well for me, but rest assured, it’s only a small portion of my portfolio.

Guest
Girlbear
3 years 1 month ago

Jesse

Not sure your statement re Bass is quite correct. He made a killing on the sub-prime crisis and then another killing on Greece. Yes he was in the JPY trade early, but doubt he has lost a lot of client money “to date” given his first 2 big trades. I guess it depends on when you invested with him.

Also last couple of months he is getting vindication on his JPY short.

Probably one of the smartest guys out there. However, as we all know smart doesn’t always make you money…at first. Look at BullBullBull! lol

Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 1 month ago

‘It would be potentially offensive to the patient (which could lead to a college complaint), and has zero upside for the medical practice.’

How could it be offensive to the patient? I agree, however, there would be no upside to the practice unless there are substantial fines for letting fraudsters slip through.

Guest
vancouverguy
3 years 1 month ago

“How could it be offensive to the patient?”

Suggesting that they are engaging in health care fraud would be a potentially offensive situation.

“I agree, however, there would be no upside to the practice unless there are substantial fines for letting fraudsters slip through.”

I cannot think of a practical way to start fining medical practices unless they are wilfully engaged in the process. This is unlikely. Rather, they will see a picture of somebody who looks kind of similar on a card and then just bring them in to see the doctor.

Member
3 years 1 month ago

VMD – This chart is just the right mix of real estate, graphics, and nerd that I need to enjoy my day. However, I am surprised that the Tri-Cities is still occupied. Without looking at the official numbers, I would have to say prices are at best flat for some time now. It is the one neck of Vancouver that didn’t seem to have the stupendous upwards moves and thus may be “holding” as indicated in the map despite appearing more “dead” on a price chart. I am forming an armed resistance movement in the Coquitlam foothills. Viva le Port… Read more »

VMD
Member
3 years 1 month ago

@#32 real_professional:
like Van E, Coquitlam SFH was one of the ‘hot’ markets in first half of 2012:
Jun 722,700(+6.3%)
May 719,000
Apr 708,200
Mar 697,400
Feb 688,800
Jan 679,800

However, from July to December:
Dec 701,000(-2.6%)
Nov 705,000
Oct 708,200
Sep 713,600
Aug 715,000
Jul 719,900

Unless Coquitlam SFH can pull off another 6 months of +1%/month gain, it too will fall into Bears’ paws in a few months..

Guest
VanRant
3 years 1 month ago

I think the new Carecard is more than a replacement medical card, it may be a ploy to see who is in country by the Government.

jesse
Member
3 years 1 month ago

“doubt he has lost a lot of client money “to date” given his first 2 big trades”

My bet is a lot of clients have rather differing perspectives on Bass’s performance. The Nomura guys basically tore his talking points to shreds, but that doesn’t mean his trades won’t make money.

paulb
Member
3 years 1 month ago

New Listings 254
Price Changes 73
Sold Listings 63
TI:12212

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Guest
Danny
3 years 1 month ago

Patriotz said

“The US’s situation today is nothing like Japan’s in 1990.”

The following Japan90s/UStoday chart lines up quite well, and i think has big implications?

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

Globe and Mail article entitled “5 ways around tough new home down payment rules”:

“Meanwhile, you’re free to borrow your down payment from a line of credit, personal loan or even a credit card. That’s right, if you’re creditworthy you can throw your down payment on a VISA at 20 per cent interest. Mind you, not all lenders allow this and the ones that do check that you can afford the extra debt payment.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/5-ways-around-tough-new-home-down-payment-rules/article6970799/

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 1 month ago

Pinnacle International is planning to build new condo towers in both Toronto and Vancouver that will have more than 90 storeys and be the tallest buildings in Canada. These residential buildings will be taller than even the tallest bank tower in Toronto, which is 72 storeys.

“Speculation is being stoked by a Toronto-area architectural blog, Urban Toronto, which late last week posted a potential conceptual drawing of the site. According to the Toronto Star, the five-building site plan could include towers of 92 and 98 stories, which would make them the country’s tallest buildings.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+firm+planning+construct+Canada+tallest+buildings+report/7786565/story.html

Guest
vancouverguy
3 years 1 month ago

“The following Japan90s/UStoday chart lines up quite well, and i think has big implications?” Interesting link Danny. Is the fundamental nature of a real estate bubble the dependency ratio? Certainly there are other factors at play, but Occam’s razor would dictate that a simply hypothesis such as this may be correct. Have a look at the Statscan page on the dependency ratio. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/82-229-x/2009001/demo/dep-eng.htm As you can see, Canada’s dependency ration troughs in 2011, and then is projected to get worse gradually, but relentlessly, through 2056. I particularly like this Statscan quote: “For every 100 working-age people, there were 15 seniors… Read more »

jesse
Member
3 years 1 month ago

For the first three days (not counting Jan 2 where there were sales booked from December), sell/newlist is 21%. Jan’12 saw the first 10 days of the year have aggregate 20% sell-newlist, Jan’11 was 34%. As VHB has mentioned, the second half of the month sees somewhat higher sell-newlist. Nothing bullish in the data yet…

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 1 month ago

The Nomura guys basically tore his talking points to shreds You mean that the Japanese debt level at 230% is unsustainable? Or that there will not be enough domestic money to buy all government bonds in the near future? Or that a rate increase on bonds would make the government de facto insolvent? Or that a shrinking population and an explosion of the retired population is a massive problem (more adult diapers sold than baby diapers there last year!)? I haven’t seen the Nomura guys debunking any of those arguments. And by the way, Nomura is (also) a Japanse Bank.… Read more »

jesse
Member
3 years 1 month ago

” but being too early doesn’t mean he’s wrong”

He was wrong because his trades involved timing. The Nomura analysts explained why his timing turned out not to be correct, and did not deal with his long-term thesis. Nomura is not just a Japanese bank, they have significant presence in other countries. To suggest their analysts are biased does nothing to invalidate their arguments, which in my view are solid.

Member
VHB
3 years 1 month ago

@jesse sure the numbers aren’t bullish, but it is increasingly unlikely January 2013 will see a listing surge exceeding that of January 2012. Granted, that’s a high benchmark but I don’t know if we’ll have a full on bearcopalypse emerging in January.

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 1 month ago

I think it might be a bit too early to say that Kyle Bass was too early in his call.

Am I missing something here? He has said he is expecting his position to pay out fully in early 2014 at the earliest and possibly 2015-2016.

And Nomuras report didn’t address the vast majority of his reasoning why now is the time to make the trade (as Makaya pointed out).

Member
VHB
3 years 1 month ago

Jan-2013
Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 4
Weekends / holidays 3
Days missing 0
Days remaining 17
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 61
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 218
SALES
Sales so far 242
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1029
Projected month end total 1271
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 870
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 3698
Projected month end total 4568
Sell-list so far 27.8%
Projected month-end sell-list 27.8%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of Jan 7, 2013 12212
MoI at this sales pace 9.61

January
year sell list sell/list
2001 1225 3395 36.1%
2002 2248 3626 62.0%
2003 1966 3810 51.6%
2004 1954 3039 64.3%
2005 1697 3360 50.5%
2006 1924 3471 55.4%
2007 1806 4067 44.4%
2008 1819 4675 38.9%
2009 762 3700 20.6%
2010 1923 5147 37.4%
2011 1819 4801 37.9%
2012 1577 5756 27.4%
Mean 1727 4071 42.4%
median 1819 3755 47.5%

Guest
painted turtle
3 years 1 month ago

Has anyone seen this weird Global video on Garth’s site?
Mixed messages + mad specialists.

jesse
Member
3 years 1 month ago

“it is increasingly unlikely January 2013 will see a listing surge exceeding that of January 2012”

I am not convinced that newlists equalling the first quarter of 2012 is necessary to elicit increased weakness in 2013. Listings are starting from a higher base. Demand looks weaker due to not only lower population growth persisting through 2012 but also tighter credit conditions and increased completions.

I agree that things are not shaping up to be Las Vegas or Miami, but I’ll take it!

Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 1 month ago

VanRant, the government already knows who is in the country. Don’t you have a passport? Or a drivers license? Or pay taxes?

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