They’re not making more land…

..But they are making more condos.

LOTS more condos.

In addition to all the run-of-the-mill condo towers in Canada there’s this plan:

Pinnacle International has plans to build the tallest building in Canada, a five building condo compilation on Torontos waterfront that would include a 92 and 98 storey building.

The tallest building in Canada today is the 72-storey First Bank Tower at 100 King Street West in Toronto, according to the Skyscraper Center, a database of the world’s tallest buildings.

Pinnacle bought the Toronto Star Tower, on the Toronto waterfront at the corner of Yonge Street and Queen’s Quay, this summer. The parcel of land is now home to a parking lot and a low-rise building, but that may soon change.

No one was available to speak about the project at Vancouver’s Pinnacle International head office on Monday.

The conceptual drawing posted on the Urban Toronto site shows the 25-storey Toronto Star Tower in the lower left corner, with another tower beside it. A road separates those two smaller towers from four much taller towers behind the first two. The Toronto Star report said the four taller towers are residential towers, while the smaller new tower would be an office tower.

Can anybody tell me how many more homes can be provided in a condo tower like this compared to single family homes on equivalent lot space?  Because I’m guessing it’s a lot.

 

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jay
Guest
3 years 8 months ago

As the condo market crashes, who will fund these big towers? No wonder banking / condo building is the number one industry in Canada.

G
Guest
G
3 years 8 months ago

I see many sellers who still list at high prices despite slow market. In 2008, what sparked the crash? was it the loan tightening?

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck
3 years 8 months ago

I see that my post last topic generated some attacks. I was just trying to figure out if I am missing something…the house prices number analysis became ludicrous a long time ago so there must be something else at play, especially if the market holds through the spring and summer.

patriotz
Member
3 years 8 months ago

“In 2008, what sparked the crash? ”

Not enough buyers to keep the market going at current prices. If the cost of buying exceeds renting this is inevitable.

Same as every crash.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago
I have become so accustomed to outrageous real estate prices that on a psychological level, a part of me fully expects the average price of a single family home in Vancouver to hit $5 million within the next 5 to 10 years. Part of expect the average condo price to hit $1.5 million in the same time. I am not a realtor and I have no vested interest in real estate. I would take great joy in witnessing all these spectators getting wiped out in a crash. But I am so accustomed to sky high real estate prices, that a… Read more »
vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 8 months ago

BNN HEADLINE

” Canadian housing market well into short-lived correction. – Royal Lepage”

Yup no worries folks it’s almost over, better buy before it starts going up again!

patriotz
Member
vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 8 months ago

speaking of new condos…

OMG have you seen all the condo’s going up near Olympic Village? drove down to that area the other day. There are so many condo buildings crushed into that area. They are all built right out to the sidewalk, with no area for landscaping at all, and two sides of so many of these towers are so close to another tower that they’ll get absolutely no light. All cookie-cutter boring condos with 50 s.f balconies

It’s like a mini downtown Toronto, but without any businesses or retail…..weird

Nevertheless ...
Guest
Nevertheless ...
3 years 8 months ago

… the “experts” over at Royal LePage (REAL ESTATE FIRM) assure us all that housing will bounce back by the end of the year:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/mild-correction-expected-for-housing-market-royal-lepage/article7028812/

… so, no worries – the professionals have our back … jump in with both feet, everyone!

Aleksey
Guest
Aleksey
3 years 8 months ago

@ Nevertheless
I stopped reading after the first line saying: “Real estate agency Royal LePage expects”

jesse
Member
3 years 8 months ago

While we’re on about Realtor brokerages opining on markets, here’s the Re/Max 2012 forecast and their forecast for 2013, courtesy poster “Austin” at RET:
http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=128434&start=15#p316465

One word: whoops!

crabman
Member
3 years 8 months ago

Looks like the Skyscraper Index could be correct once again!

“The Skyscraper Index is a concept put forward in January 1999 by Andrew Lawrence, research director at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, which showed that the world’s tallest buildings have risen on the eve of economic downturns. Business cycles and skyscraper construction correlate in such a way that investment in skyscrapers peaks when cyclical growth is exhausted and the economy is ready for recession.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyscraper_Index

yvr2zrh
Member
3 years 8 months ago
Update on Vancouver Rental Market. As most of you know, I left to Zurich in September. Flat was finally vacated by us at end of December. The ad is now on Craigslist for $300 less per month than we were paying – – and we had not had an increase in 5 years. Also looking at Craiglist, there is a lot of competition at that level as well. The Agent who is renting it said that in 22 years, he had never had a month without placing a tenant – – then in December he had his first one. Dead… Read more »
specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000
3 years 8 months ago

Driving into work this morning and one of the top stories on good ‘ol News1130 include the 1.6% YOY tumble on home values. (Yes, they used the word tumble) They ended the story suggesting to brace for another 3% by the end of the year.

http://www.news1130.com/2013/01/08/home-prices-in-vancouver-have-dropped-in-last-year/

Another 3% by the end of the year? That’s so 2012.

vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 8 months ago

wow Bank Ceo’s are working full force today in disaster control.

BNN has been non-stop with “soft landing” housing talk/interviews.

feels almost like a decided effort by the banks to try and calm the people.

gah
Guest
gah
3 years 8 months ago
I asked this last week, but didn’t get an answer, and I’m still curious, so I thought I’d ask it again. Anyone have an answer? Can someone please enlighten me? The CBC article on the Decemeber results states the following: “The board strips out the price of the most expensive homes in calculating its monthly average, the December index.” Is this new? I don’t remember them carving out the high end of the market when things were going up, were they? Is this more manipulation of the HPI? I’m not too much of a tin hat kind of guy, but… Read more »
jesse
Member
3 years 8 months ago

” Is this more manipulation of the HPI?”

What do you mean ‘more manipulation’? Were they manipulating it before? From what I see their MLS-HPI gauges aren’t too far off Teranet in the long run.

An Observer
Guest
3 years 8 months ago

I’ve posted a chart comparing the monthly drop from peak for 14 American cities and Vancouver (which I have now changed to include Vancouver West, Vancouver East, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond and New Westminster).

By expanding it from just Vancouver West the peak changed from April to May but after 7 months the Vancouver area is still descending faster than any American city at least until next month when Miami will likely take the lead.

http://vancouverpricedrop.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/graph.jpg

In the next couple of weeks I’ll update the chart to include the months before the peak

patriotz
Member
3 years 8 months ago

“The board strips out the price of the most expensive homes in calculating its monthly average, the December index.”

A hedonic index such as the REBGV really isn’t amenable to using data from outlier properties. On the other hand a repeat sale index like Teranet does not have this issue.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
3 years 8 months ago
@yvr2zrh Yeah, what’s up with the rental market in Vancouver? I’m finding the same thing, lots of vacancies in our neighborhood, listing over and over again on craigslist at lower and lower rents. This is in sharp contrast to the situation 3 years ago, when we applied to rent this place there was a lot of competition and we doubted we would get it (we only lucked out and got it because we told the landlord our plan was to rent the place for years, rather than just a year and “see what happens” like the other applicants). So we’ve… Read more »
JR
Guest
JR
3 years 8 months ago
““In 2008, what sparked the crash? ” Not enough buyers to keep the market going at current prices. If the cost of buying exceeds renting this is inevitable. Same as every crash.” NO NO NO! The spark was more inventory then could be possible consumed at any price or loan standard. There was simply more homes and condos built then possibly could be consumed by a deteriorating middle class. This happened in outlaying towns and cities and it’s destruction eventually worked it’s way inward. Why else would there be over 20 million homes sitting empty or in foreclosure? This is… Read more »
UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode
3 years 8 months ago

OK, I hope some of you would support my idea to buy a condo at UBC NOW. As Vancouver has achieved a soft landing according to REBGV!

This 2-bedroom+den condo at UBC listed for ~$720,000 last summer and failed to sale. Newly assessed at $640,000, yes, overpriced. The owner is a realtor. I am thinking to ask my realtor to negotiate a sale if 10% below the assessed value. I am thinking to put 25% down, as an investment, and rent it out for $3,000/month to new UBC faculties, taking advantage of the cheap loan.

specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000
3 years 8 months ago

UBC in Crisis Mode: If you yourself think the newly assessed value at $640,000 is overpriced (which probably is the assessed value as at July of 2012), why do you think a 10% discount from that is a good investment point?

Unless of course you believe the soft landing has been achieved but you’re asking on the wrong site.

airborne canine
Guest
airborne canine
3 years 8 months ago
Whistler Real Estate Info – courtesy of Allan Jenner TOWNHOUSES: The townhouse market is in balance with current listings of 141 and sales for the last 12 months of 222 units. The median sale price for 2012 was $600,000. This type of product appeals to Lower Mainland buyers, offering a relatively low entry price, unrestrictive usage, carefree ownership as a strata property and generally lower strata fees than condominium complexes. Prices for the last two years have been relatively stable. CHALETS: The chalet market can be split into two segments, houses priced above $1,250,000 and houses priced below. The median… Read more »
HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 8 months ago
http://www.biv.com/article/20130108/BIV0320/301089945/rental-market-tight-despite-rise-in-vancouver-vacancies-apartment MSM-type article on vancouver apartment market. Notes that the apartment buidlings have been selling well. Probably driven by REITs in my estimation…because they have a lot of cash and have been willing to accept ridiculously low cap rates. Good for the sellers, I expect the continuing flow of condo development to drive rents down. The author also gives his own buy vs rent calculation where he claims to be ahead since 2008. Now, part of the reason he can say this is that he bought a small-ish condo in Mt Pleasant in the midst of the 2008 panic, so… Read more »
Crasher
Guest
Crasher
3 years 8 months ago

Just heard Andrew Bell on BNN say that US mortgage rates have hit a 4 month high. Not too serious in the US as the market seems to on a rebound, but nailbiting time here for leveraged home owners.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 8 months ago

@ Jay #1

Ask not for whom the bill tolls … it tolls for thee

(that is to say…the taxpayers will be on the hook – just wait for it)

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 8 months ago

“But the other part, which he sort of cheekily admits to (but then says, that issue is for another day) is that he only charges himself with the interest cost on the mortgage and property taxes,”

That’s correct – because principal repayment is not an expense. There’s nothing cheeky about it.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago

@VDTF…

There’s nothing cheeky about it./blockquote>

It is when not all the information, such as DP, is made available.

VMD
Member
3 years 8 months ago

Why do Canadian RE cartels donate to Indian hackers/network penetration experts?
http://www.matriux.com/index.php?page=promote

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 8 months ago

@VMD

The Vancouver link goes here: http://jaybanks.ca/

Maybe check with Jay? jay@jaybanks.ca

Could have used them to test/secure his site, but that is really odd that all the donations are from RE companies.

vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 8 months ago

rent for $3000 or buy for 1 million.

This is a multiplex on corner of 3rd and Balsam, i don’t think any of the units have sold yet, been up for sale for awhile now

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3531504814.html

2311 Balsam, 2315 Balsam etc…

patriotz
Member
3 years 8 months ago

“The spark was more inventory then could be possible consumed at any price or loan standard.”

There is never more inventory than could be sold (not consumed propertly speaking) at any price. There are always enough buyers at some price.

Prices fall because there is more inventory than could be sold at the current market price – which is another way of saying what I said the first time.

vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 8 months ago

wow that’s gotta suck for the developer..

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3531428461.html

VMD
Member
3 years 8 months ago

@groundhog
Came across that on Garth’s comment section. Thought that interesting.
Perhaps for benign purposes. I’m no IT expert but I probably wouldn’t trust my company’s website in a group of self-advertised “ethical hackers”..

Not saying it’s them, but somebody’s behind the DOS(?) attacks on bear RE websites like VCI and Garth’s site a while back..

Girlbear
Guest
Girlbear
3 years 8 months ago

Mortgage broker I know just posted this on Facebook, oh my…

“SAVE MONEY by BUYING REAL ESTATE, this is how…
A 400K mortgage at 2.94% for a 5 year term = payments of $1,880.69/month. After 5 years of payments your mortgage balance owing is $341,503.31= $58,496.69 in equity.”

Now how many people will buy into this. A lot I would guess.

mac
Member
mac
3 years 8 months ago

Alex Jones gives all blogs and all bloggers a bad name.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago

@ girlbear

After 5 years of payments your mortgage balance owing is $341,503.31= $58,496.69 in equity.

Assuming that the value of RE does not go down in 5 years.

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 8 months ago

@mac

The rant last night was epic.

vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 8 months ago

“Assuming that the value of RE does not go down in 5 years.”

and keeping out the fact that you’ve spent more to buy than you would have to rent (a $400,000 apartment might cost $1600 to rent, so a savings of $18,000 over 5 years), and that you’ve also spent about $5000 a year in maintenance fees and property taxes ($25,000)

oh and then at the end of the 5 years if you decide not to sell because of the added cost of approx $20,000 in commission and closing costs, then your mortgage rate probably goes up by about 2%

painted turtle
Guest
painted turtle
3 years 8 months ago

People putting their house on the market might be testing the market, and/or have big hopes in the CNY on Feb 10th. Wait until Valentine’s day to see if any anxiety is kicking in.

vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 8 months ago

Girlbear-feel free to copy my post onto your friends facebook wall:)

RFM
Guest
RFM
3 years 8 months ago

vangrl posting #8
Regarding condo projects underway in Southeast False Creek:
Unsold at Olympic Village: 170
Wall Center False Creek: 557
Residences at West: 488
Pinnacle Living phase 2: 155
Pinnacle Living phase 3: 217
Opsal: 165
Meccanica: 170
Onni 100 Block: 150
Bosa Lido: 173
Onni Central: 324
Total: 2,569

G
Guest
G
3 years 8 months ago

@RFM
Good info!
Are those all the unsold ones?

VMD
Member
3 years 8 months ago

G&M Jan 8 – Scotiabank CEO on recent comments by Flaherty re: privatizing CMHC in the next 10 years:

“When I read about this and hear about it, I shudder,” Mr Waugh said, arguing that CMHC helped backstop mortgage lending during the credit crisis.

“It was one of the major reasons that we survived.”

http://t.co/0kMPBiyv

vangrl
Member
vangrl
3 years 8 months ago

@RFM

holy shit…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago
Girlbear
Guest
Girlbear
3 years 8 months ago

Van-grl.

Believe me a lot of thoughts along those lines went through my head to post. But what the hell, I am not going into a facebook battle. Not worth it. And I do like her, and I know times are tough for her…but…

for the record I find her posting reckless. If someone employed in the stock markets were to email something like that to a client they would be hauled into compliance office for a week.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 8 months ago
In the Vancouver Sun: “”Nowhere is the housing market weaker than in British Columbia, where resales are down 17 per cent in the year to November and are well below the past decade norm,” Guatieri said. “Vancouver’s resales have plunged 31 per cent in the year to December and benchmark prices are down just over three per cent since the spring.” He said the mortgage changes, limiting the life of a mortgage to 25 years from 30 and prohibiting mortgage insurance on homes more expensive than $1 million, will hit pricier markets the hardest. Housing prices are about 10 times… Read more »
gokou3
Guest
gokou3
3 years 8 months ago

Well @Girlbear your mortgage broker’s numbers aren’t exactly wrong. He just didn’t say his math is assuming house prices don’t fall.

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