They’re not making more land…

..But they are making more condos.

LOTS more condos.

In addition to all the run-of-the-mill condo towers in Canada there’s this plan:

Pinnacle International has plans to build the tallest building in Canada, a five building condo compilation on Torontos waterfront that would include a 92 and 98 storey building.

The tallest building in Canada today is the 72-storey First Bank Tower at 100 King Street West in Toronto, according to the Skyscraper Center, a database of the world’s tallest buildings.

Pinnacle bought the Toronto Star Tower, on the Toronto waterfront at the corner of Yonge Street and Queen’s Quay, this summer. The parcel of land is now home to a parking lot and a low-rise building, but that may soon change.

No one was available to speak about the project at Vancouver’s Pinnacle International head office on Monday.

The conceptual drawing posted on the Urban Toronto site shows the 25-storey Toronto Star Tower in the lower left corner, with another tower beside it. A road separates those two smaller towers from four much taller towers behind the first two. The Toronto Star report said the four taller towers are residential towers, while the smaller new tower would be an office tower.

Can anybody tell me how many more homes can be provided in a condo tower like this compared to single family homes on equivalent lot space?  Because I’m guessing it’s a lot.

 

75 Responses to “They’re not making more land…”

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    As the condo market crashes, who will fund these big towers? No wonder banking / condo building is the number one industry in Canada.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 2

    I see many sellers who still list at high prices despite slow market. In 2008, what sparked the crash? was it the loan tightening?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 5

    RealityCheck Says:
    3

    I see that my post last topic generated some attacks. I was just trying to figure out if I am missing something…the house prices number analysis became ludicrous a long time ago so there must be something else at play, especially if the market holds through the spring and summer.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 5

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    4

    “In 2008, what sparked the crash? ”

    Not enough buyers to keep the market going at current prices. If the cost of buying exceeds renting this is inevitable.

    Same as every crash.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    5

    I have become so accustomed to outrageous real estate prices that on a psychological level, a part of me fully expects the average price of a single family home in Vancouver to hit $5 million within the next 5 to 10 years. Part of expect the average condo price to hit $1.5 million in the same time. I am not a realtor and I have no vested interest in real estate. I would take great joy in witnessing all these spectators getting wiped out in a crash. But I am so accustomed to sky high real estate prices, that a part of fully expects it to continue. A part of me can even envision an average price of $10 million in 10 years. The numbers are already so big and unaffordable so as to be meaningless. What’s the difference between average price of a million or ten million for the poor shuck on the street– both price points are totally unaffordable for the average joe so real estate prices are basically meaningless to a lot of permanent- renters. Why not $10 million average price? Prices already have no connection with economic fundamentals.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 28 Thumb down 29

    BNN HEADLINE

    ” Canadian housing market well into short-lived correction. – Royal Lepage”

    Yup no worries folks it’s almost over, better buy before it starts going up again!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 34 Thumb down 0

    speaking of new condos…

    OMG have you seen all the condo’s going up near Olympic Village? drove down to that area the other day. There are so many condo buildings crushed into that area. They are all built right out to the sidewalk, with no area for landscaping at all, and two sides of so many of these towers are so close to another tower that they’ll get absolutely no light. All cookie-cutter boring condos with 50 s.f balconies

    It’s like a mini downtown Toronto, but without any businesses or retail…..weird

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 42 Thumb down 1

    Nevertheless ... Says:
    9

    … the “experts” over at Royal LePage (REAL ESTATE FIRM) assure us all that housing will bounce back by the end of the year:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/mild-correction-expected-for-housing-market-royal-lepage/article7028812/

    … so, no worries – the professionals have our back … jump in with both feet, everyone!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 29 Thumb down 1

    Aleksey Says:
    10

    @ Nevertheless
    I stopped reading after the first line saying: “Real estate agency Royal LePage expects”

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 0

    While we’re on about Realtor brokerages opining on markets, here’s the Re/Max 2012 forecast and their forecast for 2013, courtesy poster “Austin” at RET:
    http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=128434&start=15#p316465

    One word: whoops!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    Looks like the Skyscraper Index could be correct once again!

    “The Skyscraper Index is a concept put forward in January 1999 by Andrew Lawrence, research director at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, which showed that the world’s tallest buildings have risen on the eve of economic downturns. Business cycles and skyscraper construction correlate in such a way that investment in skyscrapers peaks when cyclical growth is exhausted and the economy is ready for recession.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyscraper_Index

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 0

    yvr2zrh Says:
    13

    Update on Vancouver Rental Market. As most of you know, I left to Zurich in September. Flat was finally vacated by us at end of December. The ad is now on Craigslist for $300 less per month than we were paying – – and we had not had an increase in 5 years.

    Also looking at Craiglist, there is a lot of competition at that level as well. The Agent who is renting it said that in 22 years, he had never had a month without placing a tenant – – then in December he had his first one. Dead market aparently. . .

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 69 Thumb down 0

    specialfx3000 Says:
    14

    Driving into work this morning and one of the top stories on good ‘ol News1130 include the 1.6% YOY tumble on home values. (Yes, they used the word tumble) They ended the story suggesting to brace for another 3% by the end of the year.

    http://www.news1130.com/2013/01/08/home-prices-in-vancouver-have-dropped-in-last-year/

    Another 3% by the end of the year? That’s so 2012.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 46 Thumb down 0

    wow Bank Ceo’s are working full force today in disaster control.

    BNN has been non-stop with “soft landing” housing talk/interviews.

    feels almost like a decided effort by the banks to try and calm the people.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 44 Thumb down 0

    I asked this last week, but didn’t get an answer, and I’m still curious, so I thought I’d ask it again. Anyone have an answer?

    Can someone please enlighten me? The CBC article on the Decemeber results states the following:

    “The board strips out the price of the most expensive homes in calculating its monthly average, the December index.”

    Is this new? I don’t remember them carving out the high end of the market when things were going up, were they? Is this more manipulation of the HPI? I’m not too much of a tin hat kind of guy, but as an accountant, something really doesn’t smell right with this.

    Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/01/03/business-vancouver-real-estate.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 0

    ” Is this more manipulation of the HPI?”

    What do you mean ‘more manipulation’? Were they manipulating it before? From what I see their MLS-HPI gauges aren’t too far off Teranet in the long run.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    I’ve posted a chart comparing the monthly drop from peak for 14 American cities and Vancouver (which I have now changed to include Vancouver West, Vancouver East, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond and New Westminster).

    By expanding it from just Vancouver West the peak changed from April to May but after 7 months the Vancouver area is still descending faster than any American city at least until next month when Miami will likely take the lead.

    http://vancouverpricedrop.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/graph.jpg

    In the next couple of weeks I’ll update the chart to include the months before the peak

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 60 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    19

    “The board strips out the price of the most expensive homes in calculating its monthly average, the December index.”

    A hedonic index such as the REBGV really isn’t amenable to using data from outlier properties. On the other hand a repeat sale index like Teranet does not have this issue.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

    pricedoutfornow Says:
    20

    @yvr2zrh

    Yeah, what’s up with the rental market in Vancouver? I’m finding the same thing, lots of vacancies in our neighborhood, listing over and over again on craigslist at lower and lower rents. This is in sharp contrast to the situation 3 years ago, when we applied to rent this place there was a lot of competition and we doubted we would get it (we only lucked out and got it because we told the landlord our plan was to rent the place for years, rather than just a year and “see what happens” like the other applicants). So we’ve decided to be picky about where we rent next, and it looks like we can-though I do wonder if this isn’t just a seasonal lull and the spring will once again be stiff with competition in the rental market?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 0

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 11

    UBC in Crisis Mode Says:
    22

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 24

    specialfx3000 Says:
    23

    UBC in Crisis Mode: If you yourself think the newly assessed value at $640,000 is overpriced (which probably is the assessed value as at July of 2012), why do you think a 10% discount from that is a good investment point?

    Unless of course you believe the soft landing has been achieved but you’re asking on the wrong site.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 0

    airborne canine Says:
    24

    Whistler Real Estate Info – courtesy of Allan Jenner
    TOWNHOUSES: The townhouse market is in balance with current listings of 141 and sales for the last 12 months of 222 units. The median sale price for 2012 was $600,000. This type of product appeals to Lower Mainland buyers, offering a relatively low entry price, unrestrictive usage, carefree ownership as a strata property and generally lower strata fees than condominium complexes. Prices for the last two years have been relatively stable.

    CHALETS: The chalet market can be split into two segments, houses priced above $1,250,000 and houses priced below. The median price for chalet sales in 2012 was $1,245,000. While one half or 44 of the sales were below this price point, only 40 of the 142 listings were below this price. The lower priced homes have greater appeal to our buyers. Most of the downward pressure on pricing is now being felt by the more expensive houses.

    CONDOS: Condominiums are units in multi-story buildings, with interior hallways, elevators and often swimming pools and/or hot tubs. As a result of these features strata fees are high. Examples of this type of product would be Lake Placid Lodge, Glacier Lodge, Aspens, etc. In the last 5 years median prices have dropped from $407,500 in 2008 to $295,000 in 2012. Sales in the last two years have shown some improvement but still less than the number of listings.

    HOTEL CONDOS: This category is condominiums in hotel properties where owner usage is restricted to 28 days in the winter and 28 days in the summer. As a consequence, their value is a function of how much net cash revenue they can generate. In recent years hotel occupancy rates in Whistler have declined to around 50% and as a result room rates have been reduced. This has led to a significant decline in net cash revenue earned by these properties and a decline in their selling prices. The median selling price reduced from $285,000 in 2008 to $150,000 in 2012. If occupancy rates start to improve in the future this category will represent an interesting investment opportunity.

    Whistler median condo selling prices down 28% over the last 4 years.
    Whistler median hotel selling prices down 47% over the last 4 years.
    High end chalets have dropped very considerably over the last 4 years.

    I thought people always said that the Olympics would cause Whistler real estate prices to escalate to the moon! Oops, I guess that did not happen. Move on – nothing to see here.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 1

    HAM Solo Says:
    25

    http://www.biv.com/article/20130108/BIV0320/301089945/rental-market-tight-despite-rise-in-vancouver-vacancies-apartment

    MSM-type article on vancouver apartment market. Notes that the apartment buidlings have been selling well. Probably driven by REITs in my estimation…because they have a lot of cash and have been willing to accept ridiculously low cap rates. Good for the sellers, I expect the continuing flow of condo development to drive rents down.

    The author also gives his own buy vs rent calculation where he claims to be ahead since 2008. Now, part of the reason he can say this is that he bought a small-ish condo in Mt Pleasant in the midst of the 2008 panic, so his price was probably a lot lower than the typical Vancouver SFH. But the other part, which he sort of cheekily admits to (but then says, that issue is for another day) is that he only charges himself with the interest cost on the mortgage and property taxes, which he compares to the rent he might have paid. Capital, is of course, free. No mention either of the size of the downpayment or of the nature of the loan (probably floating short-term rate).

    In a market of 3% cap rates and 4% mortgage rates, this math does not work and he knows it.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 0

    Just heard Andrew Bell on BNN say that US mortgage rates have hit a 4 month high. Not too serious in the US as the market seems to on a rebound, but nailbiting time here for leveraged home owners.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0

    HAM Solo Says:
    27

    @ Jay #1

    Ask not for whom the bill tolls … it tolls for thee

    (that is to say…the taxpayers will be on the hook – just wait for it)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    28

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 12

    Anonymous Says:
    29

    @VDTF…

    There’s nothing cheeky about it./blockquote>

    It is when not all the information, such as DP, is made available.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    Why do Canadian RE cartels donate to Indian hackers/network penetration experts?
    http://www.matriux.com/index.php?page=promote

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

    Groundhog Says:
    31

    @VMD

    The Vancouver link goes here: http://jaybanks.ca/

    Maybe check with Jay? jay@jaybanks.ca

    Could have used them to test/secure his site, but that is really odd that all the donations are from RE companies.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    rent for $3000 or buy for 1 million.

    This is a multiplex on corner of 3rd and Balsam, i don’t think any of the units have sold yet, been up for sale for awhile now

    http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3531504814.html

    2311 Balsam, 2315 Balsam etc…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    33

    “The spark was more inventory then could be possible consumed at any price or loan standard.”

    There is never more inventory than could be sold (not consumed propertly speaking) at any price. There are always enough buyers at some price.

    Prices fall because there is more inventory than could be sold at the current market price – which is another way of saying what I said the first time.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 2

    wow that’s gotta suck for the developer..

    http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3531428461.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

    @groundhog
    Came across that on Garth’s comment section. Thought that interesting.
    Perhaps for benign purposes. I’m no IT expert but I probably wouldn’t trust my company’s website in a group of self-advertised “ethical hackers”..

    Not saying it’s them, but somebody’s behind the DOS(?) attacks on bear RE websites like VCI and Garth’s site a while back..

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

    Girlbear Says:
    36

    Mortgage broker I know just posted this on Facebook, oh my…

    “SAVE MONEY by BUYING REAL ESTATE, this is how…
    A 400K mortgage at 2.94% for a 5 year term = payments of $1,880.69/month. After 5 years of payments your mortgage balance owing is $341,503.31= $58,496.69 in equity.”

    Now how many people will buy into this. A lot I would guess.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 3

    Alex Jones gives all blogs and all bloggers a bad name.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    38

    @ girlbear

    After 5 years of payments your mortgage balance owing is $341,503.31= $58,496.69 in equity.

    Assuming that the value of RE does not go down in 5 years.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    39

    @mac

    The rant last night was epic.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    “Assuming that the value of RE does not go down in 5 years.”

    and keeping out the fact that you’ve spent more to buy than you would have to rent (a $400,000 apartment might cost $1600 to rent, so a savings of $18,000 over 5 years), and that you’ve also spent about $5000 a year in maintenance fees and property taxes ($25,000)

    oh and then at the end of the 5 years if you decide not to sell because of the added cost of approx $20,000 in commission and closing costs, then your mortgage rate probably goes up by about 2%

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 32 Thumb down 5

    painted turtle Says:
    41

    People putting their house on the market might be testing the market, and/or have big hopes in the CNY on Feb 10th. Wait until Valentine’s day to see if any anxiety is kicking in.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3

    Girlbear-feel free to copy my post onto your friends facebook wall:)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2

    vangrl posting #8
    Regarding condo projects underway in Southeast False Creek:
    Unsold at Olympic Village: 170
    Wall Center False Creek: 557
    Residences at West: 488
    Pinnacle Living phase 2: 155
    Pinnacle Living phase 3: 217
    Opsal: 165
    Meccanica: 170
    Onni 100 Block: 150
    Bosa Lido: 173
    Onni Central: 324
    Total: 2,569

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 66 Thumb down 0

    @RFM
    Good info!
    Are those all the unsold ones?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    G&M Jan 8 – Scotiabank CEO on recent comments by Flaherty re: privatizing CMHC in the next 10 years:

    “When I read about this and hear about it, I shudder,” Mr Waugh said, arguing that CMHC helped backstop mortgage lending during the credit crisis.

    “It was one of the major reasons that we survived.”

    http://t.co/0kMPBiyv

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    @RFM

    holy shit…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

    Girlbear Says:
    48

    Van-grl.

    Believe me a lot of thoughts along those lines went through my head to post. But what the hell, I am not going into a facebook battle. Not worth it. And I do like her, and I know times are tough for her…but…

    for the record I find her posting reckless. If someone employed in the stock markets were to email something like that to a client they would be hauled into compliance office for a week.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    49

    In the Vancouver Sun:

    “”Nowhere is the housing market weaker than in British Columbia, where resales are down 17 per cent in the year to November and are well below the past decade norm,” Guatieri said. “Vancouver’s resales have plunged 31 per cent in the year to December and benchmark prices are down just over three per cent since the spring.”

    He said the mortgage changes, limiting the life of a mortgage to 25 years from 30 and prohibiting mortgage insurance on homes more expensive than $1 million, will hit pricier markets the hardest. Housing prices are about 10 times average family incomes, Guatieri said, putting “Vancouver in the upper echelon of overvalued housing markets, not just in Canada, but across the world.””

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+house+prices+decline+further+economist+says/7790495/story.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

    Well @Girlbear your mortgage broker’s numbers aren’t exactly wrong. He just didn’t say his math is assuming house prices don’t fall.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    51

    “Newly affluent Chinese nationals are bringing big wads of cash into North America the old-fashioned way — tucked into wallets, purses and suitcases at airports — and it appears a chunk of it winds up in Canada’s housing market.

    Between April 2011 and early June 2012, money brought by Chinese citizens comprised 59 per cent of all monies seized in Vancouver and Toronto airports, the country’s busiest, according to a Wall Street Journal news report.

    Nearly $13 million in cash was seized during that period, the newspaper reported, citing Canada Border Services Agency data obtained under the country’s access to information legislation. Most of the money was returned.

    In one case at Vancouver’s airport, a Chinese man was found with $177,500 in the lining of his suitcase and stuffed into his wallet and pockets. He was fined.”

    http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/insight/suitcases-chinese-cash-flooding-canada-borders-162935775.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    52

    ……A 400K mortgage at 2.94% for a 5 year term = payments of $1,880.69/month. After 5 years of payments your mortgage balance owing is $341,503.31= $58,496.69 in equity.”

    Now how many people will buy into this. A lot I would guess…..

    I think you need to cut the agent some slack; he might have gone for coffee during the 5 minutes of the RE course when they covered multiplication.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    “he had never had a month without placing a tenant – – then in December he had his first one. Dead market aparently. . .”

    That’s December. No experienced landlord likes to have a vacancy at this time, very hard to find good tenants, or any tenants at all. Most probably end up eating a month, and filling for January or February.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    Achilles HELOC Says:
    54

    Meanwhile … back in the real world. As taken from Craigslist

    Well maintained main house plus part basement & garage in Kerrisdale. House sits on large well kept fenced garden. House has 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom , washer & dryer.Rent is $1800.00 per month, plus Utilities. Non smoking, one pet ok. Very private & quiet location. House is clean& well kept.
    Call 604-261-1405 to view.

    I wouldn’t imagine this one would sell for $400K … not yet anyway.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    55

    ….That’s correct – because principal repayment is not an expense. There’s nothing cheeky about it…..

    Reminds me of buying a season’s pass at Whistler: the first ski day costs $1500; everyday after that is free.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 3

    If you got down voted ie Observer when you obviously shouldnt, you can blame this friggin adbar on the iphone taking up half the screen and make the vote buttons impossible to tap with big thumbs.

    Sorry Observer, you are amazing and I would never purposefully down vote you (unless you posted some whack sh!t).

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

    Speaking of that old sleazy RE pickup line, “They’re not making more land”, let’s consider Japan – again.

    Japan has a population about four times the size of Canada’s.
    And, the raw land area of Japan is about 4% that of Canada. Wow, must be a great place for real estate investors, yes? After all, the big variables (population and available area) are more extreme than Canada’s, by large multiples. How about longtime (lifelong) principal residence investors, who even Canadian bears are sometimes willing to say may come out smiling?

    How would you like to finishing paying off your mortgage..after 30 YEARS… and see zero appreciation in the value of your property?

    “…real estate prices in Japan are now at levels last seen in 1983. In other words, thirty years of virtually no real growth in real estate values. In a system conditioned by inflation this is a perfect example of asset deflation….I remember the insanity (from back in 1983). The belief was that with a scarcity of buildable land, prices could only go up. They were pioneering the 60 year mortgage at the time. As I recall, you had to prove you had a grandchild in order to qualify. I wonder how many of those grandkids have been willing to keep paying the mortgage?”

    You have to feel a little for whomever Cameron Muir and Tsur’s Japanese counterparts are. But if they’re anything like our guys, listening to them must be comedy gold. I wonder if they say things like “B..bu..but..by refusing to allow 70 year mortgages, the government is pricing young people out of our markets! *whargrble*…”

    http://housingdoom.com/2013/01/07/how-would-you-like-to-pay-off-your-30-year-mortgage-and-see-zero-appreciation/

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    58

    They aren’t making more land in the US, Spain, Ireland, etc, either.

    It’s the most idiotic argument for buying at any price that anyone could make.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 4

    Girlbear Says:
    59

    Patriotz

    As I like to say when people pull that line, “as far as I am aware they are not making any more land on planet Earth!”.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 4

    New Listings 245
    Price Changes 37
    Sold Listings 70
    TI:12334

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 107 Thumb down 0

    southseacompany Says:
    61

    Financial Post, Jan 8; “What direction are home prices headed? Depends on who you ask”

    http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/08/what-direction-are-home-prices-headed-depends-who-you-ask/?__lsa=2159-b559

    “David Madani, an economist at Capital Economics and a noted bear who has predicted home prices will decline as much as 25% on average in Canada, says the rhetoric from organized real estate is typical for any housing cycle.”

    “”Look what happened in the United States, people started calling for a soft landing. It’s almost to be expected. It’s the narrative in the boom, bust housing cycle. You can look to other countries, too,” Mr. Madani said. “The industry insiders say ‘don’t worry.’ “

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    62

    http://theconversation.edu.au/debunking-the-myths-peddled-by-australias-property-bubble-deniers-4488

    Pretty old article but I just came across this article about Australia. I have seen charts of US and Norway real prices going back to 1890 and they both show the same thing, house prices just keeping up with inflation over the period. Nice to see data for another country, Australia, going back that far showing the same thing. I’m sure Canada is identical.

    Housing prices always go up

    “Another popular myth that abounds is that housing prices always go up and never crash. If a bubble denier reluctantly admits that past downturns did occur, it certainly won’t occur this time around.

    Australia’s recorded housing price history, going back 131 years to 1880, easily debunks this myth. The nine major increases in prices have been met by eight resulting downturns, with the only exception during a small three year period from 1961-1964, where prices leveled off. The table below, from my Prosper Australia report, shows this.

    We are supposed to believe that the largest increase in housing prices in Australian history will not result in the same fate as eight of the nine have.”

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    painted turtle Says:
    63

    French CBC at 6:45 pm:

    Prices are sticky because sellers have unrealistic expectations. Inventory increasing fast. Sellers need to understand the new market conditions. Prices will fall in 2013.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 41 Thumb down 0

    Chem guy Says:
    64

    @southsea

    It really irks me that Madani must be described as a noted bear. They should be consistent and state stuff like:

    Tsur Sommervile, a noted bull…
    Cameron Muir, a commentator with a vested interest in a bull market continuing…
    Any Canadian bank CEO, who stands to lose his/her job if shareholders are wiped out due to RE bets…

    Ugh, MSM sucks as usual even when they do approach the bear community for viewpoints

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 42 Thumb down 0

    ArthurFonzarelli Says:
    65

    Patriotz / Girlbear – I think the whole running out of land theory is also challenged by the fact that nearly every metropolitan area in the world has, for the core municipality, run out of develop-able land, but is flanked by other municipalities that still have space to plonk down more SFHs. It’s as though the RE fluffers think we are the only city in the world with constrained geography or civic boundaries. News flash: despite being the self-proclaimed centre of the universe, Vancouver is in fact not the only city in the world with topography.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 1

    Not Ready To Be Slave Says:
    66

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    It is significant that three bank CEOs chose to address this issue today and one of them even used the B word in a less than dismissive way. They no longer pretend the housing crash talk is restricted to losers on the internet. It has been a recognized risk in financial markets for a couple of years and now the wider public has woken up to it. The message was less “the housing market is fine” than “my institution is not at risk if there is a serious downturn”.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0

    Not Ready To Be Slave Says:
    68

    it supposed to be “Sold Out” a year ago:

    http://www.canada.com/story_print.html?id=e1ac2cb4-1609-49b2-99c6-7afa09198a8d&sponsor=

    but, i guess it is something else that is really sold out because condos are still have selling status:

    http://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/mone-metropolitan-residences

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    It’s funny to read the Royal LePage reports from 2012 and 2013. To paraphrase,
    January 2012: 2012 in Vancouver will see prices increase with inflation. Sales to remain at current levels.
    January 2013: Ummmm… prices fell by -6% and listings fell by -35%. We predict prices to fall by 3.0% and sales to be 0.0%.

    0.0% change in sales? In other words, our models for Vancouver are broken, who the f*%& knows what’s going to happen this year.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 34 Thumb down 3

    #58 The funny thing is, the Japanese said it when they have always been making more land:
    http://japanpropertycentral.com/real-estate-faq/reclaimed-land-in-japan/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Ever see any of the video of the reclaimed land in Japan during the last big earthquake. Liquefaction. Important to those of us in False Creek and Richmond.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

    Total days	21
    Days elapsed so far	5
    Weekends / holidays	3
    Days missing	0
    Days remaining	16
    7 Day Moving Average: Sales	62
    7 Day Moving Average: Listings	223
    SALES	
    Sales so far	312
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	998
    Projected month end total	1310
    NEW LISTINGS	
    Listings so far	1115
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	3568
    Projected month end total	4683
    Sell-list so far	28.0%
    Projected month-end sell-list	28.0%
    MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
    Inventory as of Jan 8, 2013	12334
    MoI at this sales pace	9.41
    

    Numbers remain moderately bearish. But tomorrow we lose the January 2nd numbers out of the 7 day average and unless Wed the 9th gives us something similar to January 2nd, projections will swing more bearish still.

    January 9th was the first big 300+ listing day in 2012. What will it be in 2013? Tune in tomorrow!!

    2013
    1-Jan			
    2-Jan	96	178	53.9%
    3-Jan	50	227	22.0%
    4-Jan	33	211	15.6%
    5-Jan			
    6-Jan			
    7-Jan	63	254	24.8%
    8-Jan	70	245	28.6%
    

    2012

    3-Jan	45	259	17.4%
    4-Jan	65	288	22.6%
    5-Jan	30	231	13.0%
    6-Jan	76	217	35.0%
    7-Jan			
    8-Jan			
    9-Jan	43	376	11.4%
    10-Jan	94	351	26.8%
    11-Jan	59	266	22.2%
    12-Jan	48	232	20.7%
    13-Jan	55	218	25.2%
    

    2011

    4-Jan	88	267	33.0%
    5-Jan	76	250	30.4%
    6-Jan	40	165	24.2%
    7-Jan	86	177	48.6%
    8-Jan			
    9-Jan			
    10-Jan	98	266	36.8%
    11-Jan	44	261	16.9%
    12-Jan	73	186	39.2%
    13-Jan	74	200	37.0%
    14-Jan	58	171	33.9%
    

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    74

    Experts warn about real estate as retirement savings

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/story/2013/01/08/calgary-rrsp-real-estate.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    “China, India skyscraper boom may herald downturn (lessons for Toronto)” was the subject line for a link I submitted to this site on January 11, 2012. The article I linked to includes this nugget: “Barclays has mapped an “unhealthy correlation” between construction of the world’s tallest buildings and impending financial crises over the last 140 years, including the Great Depression and the Asian financial crisis”.

    http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9S6LQN80.htm

    (For some reason the submission is still awaiting moderation)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

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