They’re not making more land…

..But they are making more condos.

LOTS more condos.

In addition to all the run-of-the-mill condo towers in Canada there’s this plan:

Pinnacle International has plans to build the tallest building in Canada, a five building condo compilation on Torontos waterfront that would include a 92 and 98 storey building.

The tallest building in Canada today is the 72-storey First Bank Tower at 100 King Street West in Toronto, according to the Skyscraper Center, a database of the world’s tallest buildings.

Pinnacle bought the Toronto Star Tower, on the Toronto waterfront at the corner of Yonge Street and Queen’s Quay, this summer. The parcel of land is now home to a parking lot and a low-rise building, but that may soon change.

No one was available to speak about the project at Vancouver’s Pinnacle International head office on Monday.

The conceptual drawing posted on the Urban Toronto site shows the 25-storey Toronto Star Tower in the lower left corner, with another tower beside it. A road separates those two smaller towers from four much taller towers behind the first two. The Toronto Star report said the four taller towers are residential towers, while the smaller new tower would be an office tower.

Can anybody tell me how many more homes can be provided in a condo tower like this compared to single family homes on equivalent lot space?  Because I’m guessing it’s a lot.


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“China, India skyscraper boom may herald downturn (lessons for Toronto)” was the subject line for a link I submitted to this site on January 11, 2012. The article I linked to includes this nugget: “Barclays has mapped an “unhealthy correlation” between construction of the world’s tallest buildings and impending financial crises over the last 140 years, including the Great Depression and the Asian financial crisis”.

(For some reason the submission is still awaiting moderation)


Total days 21 Days elapsed so far 5 Weekends / holidays 3 Days missing 0 Days remaining 16 7 Day Moving Average: Sales 62 7 Day Moving Average: Listings 223 SALES Sales so far 312 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 998 Projected month end total 1310 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 1115 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 3568 Projected month end total 4683 Sell-list so far 28.0% Projected month-end sell-list 28.0% MONTHS OF INVENTORY Inventory as of Jan 8, 2013 12334 MoI at this sales pace 9.41 Numbers remain moderately bearish. But tomorrow we lose the January 2nd numbers out of the 7 day average and unless Wed the 9th gives us something similar to January 2nd, projections will swing more bearish still. January 9th was the first big 300+ listing day in 2012.… Read more »


Ever see any of the video of the reclaimed land in Japan during the last big earthquake. Liquefaction. Important to those of us in False Creek and Richmond.


#58 The funny thing is, the Japanese said it when they have always been making more land:


It’s funny to read the Royal LePage reports from 2012 and 2013. To paraphrase,
January 2012: 2012 in Vancouver will see prices increase with inflation. Sales to remain at current levels.
January 2013: Ummmm… prices fell by -6% and listings fell by -35%. We predict prices to fall by 3.0% and sales to be 0.0%.

0.0% change in sales? In other words, our models for Vancouver are broken, who the f*%& knows what’s going to happen this year.

Not Ready To Be Slave

it supposed to be “Sold Out” a year ago:

but, i guess it is something else that is really sold out because condos are still have selling status:


It is significant that three bank CEOs chose to address this issue today and one of them even used the B word in a less than dismissive way. They no longer pretend the housing crash talk is restricted to losers on the internet. It has been a recognized risk in financial markets for a couple of years and now the wider public has woken up to it. The message was less “the housing market is fine” than “my institution is not at risk if there is a serious downturn”.

Not Ready To Be Slave

Patriotz / Girlbear – I think the whole running out of land theory is also challenged by the fact that nearly every metropolitan area in the world has, for the core municipality, run out of develop-able land, but is flanked by other municipalities that still have space to plonk down more SFHs. It’s as though the RE fluffers think we are the only city in the world with constrained geography or civic boundaries. News flash: despite being the self-proclaimed centre of the universe, Vancouver is in fact not the only city in the world with topography.

Chem guy


It really irks me that Madani must be described as a noted bear. They should be consistent and state stuff like:

Tsur Sommervile, a noted bull…
Cameron Muir, a commentator with a vested interest in a bull market continuing…
Any Canadian bank CEO, who stands to lose his/her job if shareholders are wiped out due to RE bets…

Ugh, MSM sucks as usual even when they do approach the bear community for viewpoints

painted turtle

French CBC at 6:45 pm:

Prices are sticky because sellers have unrealistic expectations. Inventory increasing fast. Sellers need to understand the new market conditions. Prices will fall in 2013.

Groundhog Pretty old article but I just came across this article about Australia. I have seen charts of US and Norway real prices going back to 1890 and they both show the same thing, house prices just keeping up with inflation over the period. Nice to see data for another country, Australia, going back that far showing the same thing. I’m sure Canada is identical. Housing prices always go up “Another popular myth that abounds is that housing prices always go up and never crash. If a bubble denier reluctantly admits that past downturns did occur, it certainly won’t occur this time around. Australia’s recorded housing price history, going back 131 years to 1880, easily debunks this myth. The nine major increases in prices have been met by eight resulting downturns, with the only exception during a small three year… Read more »


Financial Post, Jan 8; “What direction are home prices headed? Depends on who you ask”

“David Madani, an economist at Capital Economics and a noted bear who has predicted home prices will decline as much as 25% on average in Canada, says the rhetoric from organized real estate is typical for any housing cycle.”

“”Look what happened in the United States, people started calling for a soft landing. It’s almost to be expected. It’s the narrative in the boom, bust housing cycle. You can look to other countries, too,” Mr. Madani said. “The industry insiders say ‘don’t worry.’ “


New Listings 245
Price Changes 37
Sold Listings 70



As I like to say when people pull that line, “as far as I am aware they are not making any more land on planet Earth!”.


They aren’t making more land in the US, Spain, Ireland, etc, either.

It’s the most idiotic argument for buying at any price that anyone could make.


Speaking of that old sleazy RE pickup line, “They’re not making more land”, let’s consider Japan – again. Japan has a population about four times the size of Canada’s. And, the raw land area of Japan is about 4% that of Canada. Wow, must be a great place for real estate investors, yes? After all, the big variables (population and available area) are more extreme than Canada’s, by large multiples. How about longtime (lifelong) principal residence investors, who even Canadian bears are sometimes willing to say may come out smiling? How would you like to finishing paying off your mortgage..after 30 YEARS… and see zero appreciation in the value of your property? “…real estate prices in Japan are now at levels last seen in 1983. In other words, thirty years of virtually no real growth in real estate values. In… Read more »


If you got down voted ie Observer when you obviously shouldnt, you can blame this friggin adbar on the iphone taking up half the screen and make the vote buttons impossible to tap with big thumbs.

Sorry Observer, you are amazing and I would never purposefully down vote you (unless you posted some whack sh!t).


….That’s correct – because principal repayment is not an expense. There’s nothing cheeky about it…..

Reminds me of buying a season’s pass at Whistler: the first ski day costs $1500; everyday after that is free.

Achilles HELOC

Meanwhile … back in the real world. As taken from Craigslist

Well maintained main house plus part basement & garage in Kerrisdale. House sits on large well kept fenced garden. House has 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom , washer & dryer.Rent is $1800.00 per month, plus Utilities. Non smoking, one pet ok. Very private & quiet location. House is clean& well kept.
Call 604-261-1405 to view.

I wouldn’t imagine this one would sell for $400K … not yet anyway.


“he had never had a month without placing a tenant – – then in December he had his first one. Dead market aparently. . .”

That’s December. No experienced landlord likes to have a vacancy at this time, very hard to find good tenants, or any tenants at all. Most probably end up eating a month, and filling for January or February.


……A 400K mortgage at 2.94% for a 5 year term = payments of $1,880.69/month. After 5 years of payments your mortgage balance owing is $341,503.31= $58,496.69 in equity.”

Now how many people will buy into this. A lot I would guess…..

I think you need to cut the agent some slack; he might have gone for coffee during the 5 minutes of the RE course when they covered multiplication.


“Newly affluent Chinese nationals are bringing big wads of cash into North America the old-fashioned way — tucked into wallets, purses and suitcases at airports — and it appears a chunk of it winds up in Canada’s housing market.

Between April 2011 and early June 2012, money brought by Chinese citizens comprised 59 per cent of all monies seized in Vancouver and Toronto airports, the country’s busiest, according to a Wall Street Journal news report.

Nearly $13 million in cash was seized during that period, the newspaper reported, citing Canada Border Services Agency data obtained under the country’s access to information legislation. Most of the money was returned.

In one case at Vancouver’s airport, a Chinese man was found with $177,500 in the lining of his suitcase and stuffed into his wallet and pockets. He was fined.”