Vancouver prices lower than last year
Teranet has released their latest numbers and they are down.
Again.
Vancouver house prices on the Teranet index are now down 2% over where they were the same time a year ago.
Prices would have to really start rocketing up to keep the YOY numbers from staying negative for a while since prices peaked around June 2012.
What does the RE industry report when they can no longer claim YOY price increases?
January 24th, 2013 at 12:15 am 1
“What does the RE industry report when they can no longer claim YOY price increases?”
2Y/2Y
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January 24th, 2013 at 1:10 am 2
Exactly. Its not like there’s some rule or ethics by which the Real Estate Industry abides. Its always possible to pick a reference point from which an asset is up, even when it has collapsed (then a time range is shown).
It happens in the fund management industry as well. I always laugh when I see new funds started by managers who obviously blew up in 2008 and put into their new fund marketing materials something like: “the fund manager had an annualized return of 15% between 2001 and 2008″
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January 24th, 2013 at 6:45 am 3
Posh Charcoal Collaboration Dining, at 3779 Sexsmith Rd., was shut down Thursday by health inspectors.
“No liquid soap or paper towel is available at hand wash station in the food preparation area and the staff washroom. Food is being stored in the staff washroom. Hand wash sink is in (sic) inaccessible.”
http://www.richmondreview.com/news/187042981.html
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 7:41 am 4
Somebody’s gonna hurt real bad:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3546410169.html
1bdrm contemporary furnishings, 525sqft (by contemporary I think they meant sparsely from the pics)
Or same price, 2 bdrm 900 sqft and actual furnishings:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3528940642.html
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January 24th, 2013 at 8:05 am 5
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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January 24th, 2013 at 8:16 am 6
@golden village
They should shut down Richmond.
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January 24th, 2013 at 8:19 am 7
They’ll make up new stats of course… like when they said sales were up in Toronto (I believe) a couple of months ago by pro-rating based on the number of weekdays in the month vs same month last year.
At some point very soon they’ll either need to bite the bullet and be honest or lose all credibility for many years to even the casual observer.
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January 24th, 2013 at 8:43 am 8
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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January 24th, 2013 at 10:03 am 9
Please forgive me for going slightly off topic, but…
If anyone knows Christy Clark or one of those clowns who are advising her, please get her to pull those stupid ads from the TV and radio. I was driving in this morning and nearly vomited upon hearing the phrase “Uncertainty stops at British Columbia.” My tax dollars at work.
I am no socialist. But really, the house is frickin on fire here and the Libs are running some sort of taxpayer funded whitewash media blitz worthy of the Soviet Kremlin.
To rebut some of the key assertions specifically:
1. A careful avoidance of “big government” and “careless spending” have protected the BC economy from failing unlike that of many other less fully enlightened regimes (from the TV advertising, this apparently includes Europe and the United States, according to where the falling dominoes are placed).
– Libs, puhleeze! There is essentially zero difference between our welfare state (which is if anything slightly more expensive and slightly less efficient than average) and that of any other western jurisdiction. What used to be true, until about a year ago, was that an absolutely massive expansion of government guaranteed mortgage debt was fueling a completely unsustainable rise of residential property prices, which also goosed related industries and consumer spending. But guess what, to keep a bubble like that growing, you not only need to keep growing the debt pile, but it must keep rising exponentially. Now that credit growth has tightened or gone negative, the true value of residential RE is being exposed, the bids have disappeared and the province’s primary industrial sector (building/selling/financing residential real estate) is in complete free fall. If you’re going to take credit for the good times, please try to understand what caused them.
2. The Libs job training program is the type of thing that will work to protect the economy from distress, unlike the “quick fixes” of other jurisdictions.
– Again, I don’t really agree that the Central Banks should be printing up trillions of dollars to prop up an over-leveraged system, but that sure as hell is going to have a more lasting and significant impact than funding a few more technical college teaching jobs (which, by the way, makes the government bigger).
Overall, these ads have laid bare these clowns for who they are. We have a second rate Sarah Palin in charge here, and the fact that she is the brightest light of the keystone cops squad surrounding here is truly scary. Anybody, or even nobody, would be better off in charge in Victoria than this crew.
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January 24th, 2013 at 10:14 am 10
It will take some time before the new reality sinks in.
Earth is not flat.
All men are equal.
Smoking is bad for you.
Real Estate goes up AND down.
All of these ideas, when first introduced were dangerous to those with interests vested in the status quo. Those ideas were ridiculed, discredited and fought tooth-and-nail.
But numbers don’t lie and the results can only be twisted so much before the truth becomes blatantly obvious.
Still, to the bitter end there will be those who would rather believe the lie than face the truth. Cannot help human nature…
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January 24th, 2013 at 10:23 am 11
New inventory graph at:
http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Inventory-Graphs?pid=291#pid291
Inventory is at the 2nd highest level for this time of year. Only 2009 was higher and inventory is climbing much faster than it did in 2009. This is a pretty strong indication that we will have price declines greater than 2008-2009.
Over the last week the average daily increase was:
96
At this rate we would reach 14,000 in 3 days (Jan-27-13)
At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 73 days (Apr-06-13)
and 25,000 by June 3, 2013
Thanks PaulB for the numbers!
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January 24th, 2013 at 11:09 am 12
That Posh restaurant, I went to bby one for some groupon deal. I got really bad diarrhea after and never went back again. It was used to be a nice place when they first opened.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 1:04 pm 13
Some facts to consider with respect to a downturn:
In 2001, a relative built a detached house in Surrey on a 50 foot lot for 320,000. This includes the land, materials, and labour….so everything.
In 2012, the same house costs about $320,000 to build (materials/labour)and this EXCLUDES THE LAND.
When looking at why house prices exploded, I think this is an overlooked fact. Labour and material prices have increased at the same rate as land prices.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 1:32 pm 14
Re: RealityCheck #13
Part of the Labour and material price increases can be attributed to the high RE activity in the local markets. Yes I know material is commodity, but the commodity goes through several layers (shipping, wholesale, retailer, etc.) before reaching the end consumer. You don’t even need me to elaborate on the cause of rising RE labour cost.
Land value? There are still a lot of places in the US that are selling for an implied negative value, i.e. the selling price is below the material replacement cost of the house.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 1:40 pm 15
@ RC
Umm, how much did it cost to build the Detroit Silverdome? It cost $55.7 million to build in 1975! How much did it sell for in 2009? $583,000, land included.
You see, it’s not so much what something costs to build, it’s what it is worth to some other person. And worth to some other person in real estate is usually a function of what someone would rent it for.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2009/1118/new-tale-of-detroits-woe-silverdome-sold-for-583000
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January 24th, 2013 at 2:26 pm 16
@HAM Solo
“There is essentially zero difference between our welfare state (which is if anything slightly more expensive and slightly less efficient than average) and that of any other western jurisdiction”
Except every other major Western country has a national public rental housing program and Canada does not. At the provincial level, focus under the BC Liberals has been providing supportive housing for drug addicts and people with mental illness. This is significantly different from most other welfare states that still focus on providing housing assistance to low income families, as opposed to drug addicts.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 2:55 pm 17
You left out seniors, people with disabilities, and women at risk of violence, but I guess they’re harder to stigmatise.
http://www.bchousing.org/Options/Supportive_Housing
Not meant as a claim that housing support for these or any other group is adequate.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 2:59 pm 18
@13: I’m guessing real estate works like any other industry. The more building that is happening the more jobs and the higher paid the professionals are. You fill the lower ranks with pot smokings wheel barrow pushers and pay them well, the people who know what they are doing are in higher demand and can get higher wages.
When building drops off you have a lot of workers competing for less available work and that drives prices down.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 3:23 pm 19
In response to my price drop thread on another forum, someone (likely realtor) posted the following Above-assessment sales:
6976 wiltshire ST. Vancouver West
Assessed: 2.79M, listed Jan/13 @2.988M sold @3.01M in 3 days
4225 Cartier ST. Vancouver West
Assessed: 3.338M, listed Dec/12 @2.998M, sold @3.88M in 28 days
4098 W 11 AV. Vancouver
Assessed: 3.589M, listed Jan/13 @4.48M, sold @4.098M in 2 days
3818 W 38 AV. Vancouver
Assessed: 3.118M, listed Dec/12 @5.188M, sold @4.68M in 31 days
Seems like the high end market can still sell above-assessed and these ones will pull up the average SFH prices.
Seems like HPI will continue to drift down though.
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January 24th, 2013 at 3:28 pm 20
If sales are recorded when subjects are removed, how can a sale occur in 2 days?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 3:41 pm 21
@ Vote Down The Facts
It could be a subject-free offer.
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January 24th, 2013 at 3:47 pm 22
“It could be a subject-free offer.”
On the seller’s side too?
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January 24th, 2013 at 3:48 pm 23
@VMD
Just googled the “2-day sale”
http://www.westca.com/House/housedetail/houseid=4895/lang=schinese.html
Looks like 4098 W 11 AV. Vancouver was listed as far back as May 2012 for $4.78M….
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January 24th, 2013 at 3:50 pm 24
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ovJr2DsZjqkJ:www.panoramio.com/photo/70846507+&cd=10&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca
From April….Looks like whoever posted those isn’t being quite so honest with days on market.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 3:53 pm 25
don’t see what the issue is. If your point is that it was re-listed, you should make that clear. If a seller receives a subject-free offer, and is fine with the price, the offer becomes binding once signed. 2 days is not unreasonable if everyone wants to complete the deal.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 4:05 pm 26
@#19 VMD
I guess some of that ~$1T corrupt Communist officials fled China in 2012 with has been successfully safe-havened in Van West. All we need to know now is the names of the buyers. The first person able to solve this very important, yet very politically sensitive problem (provide concrete foreign RE investment info), will be a national hero and should be rewarded handsomely. And the first politician from any party to even mention this issue (highly doubtful) in the upcoming BC election has my vote..
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January 24th, 2013 at 4:06 pm 27
@VMD @groundhog
I’ve just seen the same thing on a recent sale of a new TH in NV. A three unit complex was completed last summer. The units were originally listed just under $900k. They dropped to $789k in the fall and then they were just recently recently re-listed with further price reductions, 2 @ $740k and the other at $698k. The final price change occurred on Jan 14. One unit ($740k) was sold on Jan 14 so the listing show DOM of zero. That obviously doesn’t show the entire picture.
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January 24th, 2013 at 4:52 pm 28
Follow-up: looks like that [realtor] couldn’t even figure out the assessed value was of the previous tear-downs, lol.
“4225 Cartier ST. Vancouver West
Assessed: 3.338M, listed Dec/12 @2.998M, sold @3.88M in 28 days”
– the 2.998M listing was in Feb/11, for the tear-down. House was rebuilt last year. Listed at $4,280,000 in Dec/12. The assessed price was likely of the old tear-down.
“4098 W 11 AV. Vancouver
Assessed: 3.589M, listed Jan/13 @4.48M, sold @4.098M in 2 days”
– as Groundhog pointed out, this one’s been on sale since at least May/12. It was initially listed at 4.78M.
“3818 W 38 AV. Vancouver
Assessed: 3.118M, listed Dec/12 @5.188M, sold @4.68M in 31 days”
– this is new 2012 house. Assessed price was of old tear-down.
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January 24th, 2013 at 5:04 pm 29
I live in Van West and drive through the “nicer” (aka. ghost town) neighborhouds frequently.
I have to say, there are a TON of $2.5 – $4.0 million Chinese sh*t boxes being built.
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January 24th, 2013 at 5:24 pm 30
The 2 townhomes @ 2557 w8th have sold at last. Does anyone know the final sale prices?
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January 24th, 2013 at 5:55 pm 31
@VMD –
A REALTOR(TM) providing misleading information?
According to the REALTOR(TM) ethics guidelines, it is forbidden to provide false or misleading information about the real estate market. Given that REALTOR(TM)s unfailingly adhere to these strict policies, I can only conclude that the apparent discrepancies must be due to an error on your part.
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January 24th, 2013 at 6:18 pm 32
New Listings 180
Price Changes 66
Sold Listings 63
TI:13806
http://www.paulboenisch.com
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January 24th, 2013 at 7:15 pm 33
http://adansprauer.com/blog.html/categories/sold+out+vancouver+mc2
So they said MC2 was sold out last year.
But they pop up on MLS again?
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12754705&PidKey=-2128981576
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12754700&PidKey=-211609079
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January 24th, 2013 at 7:27 pm 34
I was in conversation today with a boomer from South Surrey who was telling me that whole area (South Surrey, White Rock, Langley) was incredibly overbuilt and people overextended. I mentioned to her that we’re renting, but looking to rent a bigger place (rent, I said, not buy!) in our current neighbourhood of Vancouver. She suggested we should look into buying some townhouse in South Surrey-would only cost $1200 a month for two years, with the developer covering the strata fees and lending the downpayment! (or some crazy scheme the developer seemed to be having). I was waiting for her to give me the punch line and say something like “Only a fool would do something like this, given it’s all going to crash” But it never came. Huh. I politely declined and said I could never live in suburbia, given I like walking everywhere and Vancouver has many walkable neighbourhoods. She seemed to think I was missing the boat.
In five years, will we see who missed the boat? I have a sneaking suspicion it won’t be me…
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January 24th, 2013 at 8:30 pm 35
Yet another reason Vancouver has the 2nd most expensive RE on earth – who wouldnt pay millions for a little slice (no pun intended) of the Best Place On Earth.
“A 19-year-old man was killed after a violent clash involving swords and bats in East Vancouver late Wednesday.”
http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2013/01/24/young-man-linked-to-the-drug-trade-slain-in-east-van-sword-attack/
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January 24th, 2013 at 8:49 pm 36
pricedoutfornow: I lived in South Surrey in 2000. I bought a nice place near 152nd and 32nd and it was a great lifestyle. About 5 years later the build out was unbelievable. The amount of people and traffic was crazy. The roads were built in the 1960’s yet there are 10x’s the people now. The whole area has been completely ruined. It is overbuilt and the amount of town houses under construction is nuts. A beautiful area has become Maple Ridge. In fact I was driving down 152nd today and saw a sign advertising “Hip town houses” I am not sure what is hip about living on 152nd and 32nd? I think a lot of the people out there have major downtown envy and try to compensate by telling us how great it is.
It will end very badly for the townhouse developers and purchasers.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 8:57 pm 37
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January 24th, 2013 at 9:01 pm 38
Own the lifestyle for under 500K
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12641438&PidKey=-1134083990
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January 24th, 2013 at 9:02 pm 39
VMD, you deliver once again. Great posts.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 9:14 pm 40
Urban Development Institute panel optimistic about Vancouver’s real estate prospects
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Urban+Development+Institute+panel+optimistic+about+Vancouver+real+estate+prospects/7869346/story.html#ixzz2IxepQQRH
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January 24th, 2013 at 9:30 pm 41
23-year-old squatter in a foreclosed $2.5 million Florida mansion is claiming adverse possession of the property, which grants him legal title after living there rent-free/mortgage-free for 7 years.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-24/squatter-occupies-bank-america-owned-25-million-boca-raton-mansion-hilarity-ensues
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 9:33 pm 42
The amount of condos going up in White Rock right now is absurd.
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January 24th, 2013 at 9:47 pm 43
@39
No one with half a brain would believe the garbage that a bunch of developers are spewing. If things were so rosy Onni etc wouldnt be cancelling projects:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/12/05/bc-north-vancouver-omni.html
Oh and sales/prices wouldnt be way down either. Give me a break.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 10:08 pm 44
@37
Go for a stroll around that property on Google maps and you will see why!!! That place has got a lot more to drop methinks.
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January 24th, 2013 at 10:30 pm 45
@Harry Wang
Thanks for the link (http://www.flickr.com/photos/pretty_like_drugs/5143678672/lightbox/)
““They like it in British Columbia because it’s safe and they’re accepted here,” Bosa said. “There is a good quality of life with universal health care and good schools.””
I am not sure how long the first statement will hold if hundreds of astronaut families continue to arrive just for the health care and schools. What about learning English, getting involved in local communities, volunteering, participating in elections, paying high taxes, starting a real business? Isn’t it part of the immigration package too? That guy is making Vancouver look like a health/education supermarket. Meanwhile, he is the one making millions without paying for external costs. I just hope he will get burned.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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January 24th, 2013 at 10:31 pm 46
Sorry, wrong link
(Do not even know how this happened…)
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:31 am 47
The subjects are always on the offer. The seller accepts the offer or he doesn’t.
Technically I suppose a seller could accept an offer subject to something, but it doesn’t make any sense. It’s the seller who wants the bid to be binding and the buyer who wants a way out of the bid by adding subjects.
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January 25th, 2013 at 2:40 am 48
“A 19-year-old man was killed after a violent clash involving swords and bats in East Vancouver late Wednesday.”
Saw a news clip on this and have to say what stuck me was how uniformly ugly the houses on the street were. I think people living in Vancouver have become sort of conditioned to the ongoing uglification of the city, but if you’ve been away for a while it really hits home.
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January 26th, 2013 at 7:45 am 49
MC2 is not sold out. They email and call me often about units still available. The most recent call involved a $10k discount.
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January 28th, 2013 at 10:48 am 50
“Follow-up: looks like that [realtor] couldn’t even figure out the assessed value was of the previous tear-downs, lol. ”
They’re above-assessed mostly because there was work done to them. What’s the excuse of the below-assessed sales? Did they remove a bedroom? Tear up the back yard?
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