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admin
Guest
3 years 10 months ago

Hey look! First post! 😀

Jesse doesn’t mention it in this story, but he’s got a pretty strong prediction track record having won the 2012 price prediction contest.

Here are the results of that one.

OVERALL SCORE:
#1: Jesse: 39 pts
#2: The Ant: 26 pts
#3: Absinthe:13 pts

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

Nobel prize winning Economist says USA should mint a trillion dollar coin to deal with its debt problems. Cold this work?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/01/08/f-trillion-dollar-coin-paul-krugman.html

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago
One more thing on the trillion dollar coin. The absurdity of it kind of reminds me of that episode of Married With Children when Al Bundy wanted a 99 cent coin because so many price points end in 99 cents (maybe they could have used a loony–it’s worth 99 cents US on lots of days). But doesn’t the notion of a trillion dollar coin sound absurd! It’s hard to believe that it’s being seriously discussed–and by a nobel prize winning economist at that! This seems to be indicator of some kind of a top or some kind of threshold has… Read more »
patriotz
Member
3 years 10 months ago

“The uneducated man on the street can see the whole US economy (and therefore the world economy) is a giant ponzi scheme”

The world economy can’t be a ponzi scheme because ponzi schemes don’t produce anything by definition. Of course the world economy produces things – even the US does. The issue is how the productive parts get back into balance once the ponzi parts collapse, as they must eventually.

patriotz
Member
3 years 10 months ago

Krugman is actually making fun of Congress’s refusal to get serious about fiscal issues.

However technically it could work because coinage as opposed to paper money is not issued by the central bank but by the government itself and is not backed up by debt (this is also true in Canada). Thus the government is creating a nominal asset out of nothing to pay off its debt.

This isn’t an original idea really, it’s similar to those advanced by Social Credit (not the WAC Bennett version) and similar groups in the US a long time ago.

The Predictator
Guest
The Predictator
3 years 10 months ago

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-20%

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-20%

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
-20%

The Predictator
Guest
The Predictator
3 years 10 months ago

“But doesn’t the notion of a trillion dollar coin sound absurd!”

Absurd. It worked out OK for Zimbabwe didn’t it? Forget about 1 trillion. Go straight to the $100 trillion coin.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576314953091790360.html

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 10 months ago

@Absurd. “It worked out OK for Zimbabwe didn’t it? Forget about 1 trillion. Go straight to the $100 trillion coin.”

A 100 trillion coin? Now that would just be absurd!

Bank of America’s take on it I think is the best I’ve seen here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-08/bank-america-trillion-dollar-tooth-fairy-straight-land-fiscal-make-believe

The Predictator
Guest
The Predictator
3 years 10 months ago

“The world economy can’t be a ponzi scheme because ponzi schemes don’t produce anything by definition.”

Not true. They often produce fancy brochures and marketing materials. Kind of like the BC economy.

Harry Wang
Guest
Harry Wang
3 years 10 months ago
RFM
Guest
RFM
3 years 10 months ago

More than a prediction! More than mere supposition! Absolutely NO guesswork involved!

The newly-developed Ping Pong Pricing Principal (PPPP), explained here: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-PPPP

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 10 months ago

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-18%

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-16%

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
-15%

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 10 months ago
JUNE 2013 Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012 -Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI -3% -Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI -2% -Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI -4% Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012 -Greater Vancouver detached average -4% -Greater Vancouver attached average -5% -Greater Vancouver apartments average -5% Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012 – Burnaby South SFD -3% – Coquitlam SFD -1% – North Van SFD -3% – New West SFD -1% – West Van SFD -4% – Van East SFD -6% – Van West SFD -4% – Richmond SFD -4% DEC 2013 Category 1:… Read more »
Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 10 months ago
Sorry, looks like we can enter for both the main category and sub? If so use this one: JUNE 2013 Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012 -3% -Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI -3% -Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI -2% -Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI -4% Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012 -5% -Greater Vancouver detached average -4% -Greater Vancouver attached average -5% -Greater Vancouver apartments average -5% Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012 -3% – Burnaby South SFD -3% – Coquitlam SFD -1% – North Van SFD -3% – New West SFD -1% – West… Read more »
pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
3 years 10 months ago

@Harry Wang

This is what I was thinking yesterday as I walked home in torrential downpour. Best place on earth, my ass! Face it, the weather here sucks, January is the worst month (this as someone who has walked to work for 10 years, believe me, it’s not pretty).

YLTNboomerang
Member
3 years 10 months ago
This is the value Realtors(R) bring to the table…the North Shore Real Estate Market Update (from a friends Realtor(R) husband): Happy New Year to all my valued clients, friends and family. I hope you had a great holiday season, and I wish all the best this year. May it be your healthiest, happiest and most memorable year ever. The year finished on a down note for real estate in the Lower Mainland, as residential sales were down 22.7% from 2011, and were 25% below the 10 year average for home sales. Moreover, residential listings for the year were 6.1% above… Read more »
Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it
3 years 10 months ago

16 YLTNboomerang
Classic! I like how he says prices have held firm, then goes on to say that downward pressure on prices is luring in first-time buyers.

patriotz
Member
3 years 10 months ago

Oxymoron. Downward pressure on prices is a result of a lack of first time buyers.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 10 months ago
It’s not just in Canada that Realtors are getting hungry, in France too! One of the Re/Max equivalent, Orpi, is just starting a campaign among its clients to, get that, decrease their asking price! Here is the google translated version of the article. And yesterday, it was another realtor network (FNAIM) that publicly announced massive layoffs: – 10,000 realtors, out of 80,000 laid off – 3,000 offices, out of 30,000 closed. The reason? Transactions decreased by 18.6% in 2012 compared to 2011 (while prices went up by 0.8%)… The CEO of FNAIM declared: “It’s a brutal decrease, more brutal than… Read more »
G
Guest
G
3 years 10 months ago
AlmostPerfect
Guest
AlmostPerfect
3 years 10 months ago
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

…This is what I was thinking yesterday as I walked home in torrential downpour. Best place on earth, my ass! Face it, the weather here sucks, January is the worst month (this as someone who has walked to work for 10 years, believe me, it’s not pretty)….

The best thing about living in Vancouver is all the money you save by not needing sunscreen.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 10 months ago

#23, the only thing that really sucks about Vancouver is all the people whining about the weather. We can have a dry spell that lasts a few weeks, but on the first wet day after that everybody has a “Won’t this rain ever stop?” attitude. It’s really quite silly. Nowhere is perfect, but the weather is something that’s somewhat it your control. If it’s raining, take an umbrella – problem solved.

Perhaps you’d prefer to be in Sydney, where temperatures are close to 40C this week. Or maybe in the UK, which just had the wettest year on record?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 10 months ago

“We can have a dry spell that lasts a few weeks”

Yes, but not all of us are in town during August to witness it.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

The Waldorf Hotel is shutting down on January 20th and 60 people are losing their jobs. The Hastings Street site was sold to a condo developer. Another cultural institution lost to Vancouver’s condo boom. RIP.

http://www.waldorfhotel.com/rip-the-waldorf-hotel-october-2010-january-2013/

Troll Feeder
Guest
Troll Feeder
3 years 10 months ago

VDTF: Ah, yes. The ‘Its worse somewhere else and that makes it good here’ argument. It’s not so much the rain that gets me, it’s the dark. Those days that its looks like 5pm at noon.

Today was beautiful though, all the sweeter because it’s so rare!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

All of you who think Vancouver sucks because of the weather: If is it so horrible,why don’t you do yourselves (and the rest of us) a favor and move somewhere else? Lots of supposedly nice cities in the US with dry weather and cheap real estate. Just go!

Domocrass
Guest
Domocrass
3 years 10 months ago
“All of you who think Vancouver sucks because of the weather: If is it so horrible,why don’t you do yourselves (and the rest of us) a favor and move somewhere else? Lots of supposedly nice cities in the US with dry weather and cheap real estate. Just go!” Another one of these moronic comments. The point is that the RE pumpers call this the best place on earth. Well, the weather sucks big time. That so many Vancouverites will not admit this obvious fact is a testament to the dellusion and self-deception that has contributed to the biggested RE bubble… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

@Anonymous #28

You should move to the US because you spell the word “favour” the American way.

Mover
Guest
Mover
3 years 10 months ago
“All of you who think Vancouver sucks because of the weather: If is it so horrible,why don’t you do yourselves (and the rest of us) a favor and move somewhere else? Lots of supposedly nice cities in the US with dry weather and cheap real estate. Just go!” If you can study for and write professional qaualifying exams for me and my wife in the United States and then find us jobs and then sell our Vancouver house in this market and find us another in the United States and handle legal aspects of the immigration process for us and… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago
Mayor Robertson says he is going to try to save the Waldorf. From CBC: “”The irony that the Waldorf was taken over by a condo developer in the very area we helped reinvigorate is obvious to anyone. The Waldorf filled a void. People responded because they need it,” said Thomas Anselmi, one of the three operating partners and the entertainment director. “We tried to stand for something authentic and real in a city with thousands of empty condominiums and a community starved for cultural spaces.” News of the closure spread quickly on Twitter, catching the attention of Mayor Gregor Robertson… Read more »
patriotz
Member
3 years 10 months ago

Hat tip to StalJ at VVH:

101 – 1675 PENTICTON AVE Penticton, BC $349,900

Phenomenal Price!!! Buyer paid $561,750, in September, 2009. Fabulous 3 year old home located on a flat lot in the desirable area “Bridgewater”, backing onto a beautiful creek with access to walking, hiking and biking trails.

That is 38% off the purchase price.

No Noise
Guest
No Noise
3 years 10 months ago
@#20 G: Sal Guatieri, BMO Capital Markets senior economist, is a HAM believer (although he can’t quantify it): http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/story.html?id=7790495 “The federal immigrant investor program allows people to immigrate to Canada if they can show they have business experience, a net worth of at least $1.6 million obtained legally and can invest $800,000 in an interest-free loan to Canada for five years to create jobs. There was a backlog of more than 23,000 applications to the program last April. In July, applications were suspended so the federal government could process existing applications and review the program. “There is some speculation that… Read more »
patriotz
Member
3 years 10 months ago

” “What has supported Vancouver’s housing market, at least in the past five years, is not income, it’s wealth.”

Well sort of, since one person’s debt is another person’s wealth.

Disgusted
Guest
Disgusted
3 years 10 months ago
A woman on trial for child sex abuse charges used the sexual exploitation of her own teen daughter as a way to lure male renters in her home! The woman and her daughter would have group sex with male renters. The woman is a lawyer and a member of Alliance Defending Freedom — an anti-gay Christian group. ““The defendant was her pot pusher, her pornography producer and her predator,” he told the jury. Kacavas told jurors that one count alleges the woman videotaped herself having oral sex with her daughter.”… “Brandon Ore of Lebanon, N.H., testified he met the mother… Read more »
paulb
Member
3 years 10 months ago

New Listings 221
Price Changes 44
Sold Listings 34
TI:12466

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 10 months ago

Wow.

Today’s sales were just slightly above zero.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 10 months ago

Pretty similar to Jan 2012…the way things are shaping up.

It’s funny, I think there isn’t much of a feeling in the general public that a crash is afoot, Maclean’s notwithstanding. That being said, it feels like the snowpack keeps building beyond avalance levels. All we need now is someone to sneeze.

Superfly
Guest
Superfly
3 years 10 months ago

Sales lag 2 weeks therefore these are over Xmas. I expected higher listings, some 300+ days by now.

YLTNboomerang
Member
3 years 10 months ago

Everyone’s waiting for spring…

@YLTNboomerang
Guest
@YLTNboomerang
3 years 10 months ago

Shut up.

Troll
Guest
Troll
3 years 10 months ago

First 6 days of this Jan compared to last year:
Sales = same
New Listings = lower
Inventory = higher

Certainly the trend that started around this time last year is continuing and without much change. I don’t think we’re going to see a listings rush this spring. Just a stready drip.

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 10 months ago
Total days	21
Days elapsed so far	6
Weekends / holidays	3
Days missing	0
Days remaining	15
7 Day Moving Average: Sales	50
7 Day Moving Average: Listings	232
SALES	
Sales so far	346
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	750
Projected month end total	1096
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	1336
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	3474
Projected month end total	4810
Sell-list so far	25.9%
Projected month-end sell-list	22.8%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of Jan 9, 2013	12466
MoI at this sales pace	11.37
HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 10 months ago

I wonder if there is any change in the composition of sales. I have a gut feel that SFH in the 600-900K range is holding up OK. However zero down condos and homes over $1M may be piling up.

I don’t have much data here, just extrapolating from where I see relative strength on the bull/bear map. Also the New Westminster chest pounders would be supportive of some strength at the bottom end of the SFH market.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
3 years 10 months ago

Correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t sales/listings stats in Dec-Jan totally useless for predicting the Spring market. I think this has been noted in previous years.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago
“If you can study for and write professional qaualifying exams for me and my wife in the United States and then find us jobs and then sell our Vancouver house in this market and find us another in the United States and handle legal aspects of the immigration process for us and then organize our move and find out which are the good neighbourhoods in the city you have chosen for us and which are the good schools for our kids, and find us new friends and a nanny in the new place, I’ll move. Get the picture?” Yes, I… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

By the way, Mover, I moved halfway around the world to make a better life for myself and my family here in Vancouver, and I have no regrets. The whining about the weather sickens me, and your whining about how hard it is to move is not much better.

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