Yes We Have No Bubble Trouble.

For all of you worried about a ‘housing bubble’ just stop and read this article:

No Housing Bubble Trouble.

At the national level, what could possibly kick national home prices downstairs? There is nothing to suggest massive job loss ahead or a huge oversupply of new homes. That leaves only the dubious assumption of a big increase in mortgage interest rates as the trigger for any nationwide decline in home prices. But national housing prices did not fall in the past when mortgage rates rose to twice their current level.

Oh, wait.. Sorry that’s from the Washington Times in 2005 and refers to the US market.

This is the one I meant to point to:

No Bubble, No Trouble.

A housing slowdown in Toronto and Vancouver could affect consumer confidence in regions with strong economic fundamentals like Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax, adds Don Campbell, best-selling author of Real Investing in Canada. But rather than a sharp decline, you’re more likely to see slower rates of price appreciation and home sales, says McKellar. “Overall the economy of Canada compared to other countries is still doing very well,” he says. “Housing markets are a function of the economy. Not the other way around.”

Hat-tip to Patriotz and Many Franks for the article links.

 

 

160 Responses to “Yes We Have No Bubble Trouble.”

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    It’s a balloon, d**n it!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    CanuckDownUnder Says:
    2

    What a coincidence, there’s also no bubble in Australia. Don’t even get me started about fundamental nonsense like price/income ratios! It turns out our local real estate pimp isn’t too fond of the latest Demographia survey:

    ‘Dr Wilson, the senior economist at the Fairfax-owned Australian Property Monitors, questioned the validity of the survey by making world comparisons. “You may as well be comparing the Australian housing market to the one on Jupiter, because they are different animals,” he said.’

    http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/economist-tears-roof-off-affordability-study-20130121-2d2e4.html

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 0

    And right on cue:

    Is Canada talking itself into a housing crisis?

    Little was heard of housing bubbles in Canada up to about a year ago. Now, predictions of crashes are on the front cover of Maclean’s and other publications. One might wonder if we are talking ourselves into a housing miasma, even though the fundamentals don’t point to one.

    Don’t worry, be happy and buy a house. Now.

    For more RE bull**** from the same author, google “LARRY MACDONALD Globe and Mail”

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 52 Thumb down 0

    The perils of living in a condo tower:

    “Authorities are investigating after a pipe was opened in the 35th-floor stairwell of a Yaletown highrise Monday evening, sending water cascading down the stairs to the ground floor.

    “The water made its way down into every single hallway,” said Capt. Gabe Roder of Vancouver Fire and Rescue Services. “How much of it went into the suites? I can’t tell you that.”

    He said it looks like someone deliberately opened the standpipe system used by firefighters to attack fires.”

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Mischief+suspected+massive+water+leak+Yaletown+highrise/7851859/story.html

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 0

    vancouverguy Says:
    5

    A little more lipstick for the Pigg in Toronto.

    http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1318272–downtown-condo-market-is-showing-strange-signs-of-life

    This article makes me want to vomit.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    pricedoutfornow Says:
    6

    “Housing markets are a function of the economy. Not the other way around.”

    Maybe this would apply in normal circumstances, but the past ten years have been anything but normal. People have been encouraged to take on more and more debt through low interest rates, zero down mortgages, lengthy amortizations, CMHC insurance to anyone with a pulse, etc etc. In this case I would say that the economy has ONLY been performing well BECAUSE of housing-without the government stepping in in 2008/2009 where would housing be today? It definitely would not have soared to new highs, that’s for sure. This guy has got it all wrong…he must be blind not to think that this economy is teetering on the edge, due to high household debts and unsustainable housing prices.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 0

    Some interesting statistics to consider in today’s Globe and Mail:

    -According to a Re/MAX survey, 71% of homebuyers in BC believe that real estate prices will stay flat or increase in 2013

    -According to the same survey, BC homebuyers are the “least bullish” in Canada while Ontario homebuyers are the most bullish

    -According to an Angus Reid survey of 1100 people who plan to buy real estate within the next two years, 80% believe prices will stay flat or increase

    Those are some stunning statistics. It shows that most people really do not see the bubble correcting/crashing in 2013. The bear argument is not the mainstream opinion in Canada. And people are even more deluded about real estate in Ontario than they are in BC!!! And what does this mean when people see prices falling in 2013. If they were planning on buying because they thought prices would increase/stay flat then maybe a lot of people will change their mind and decide not to buy once they see prices are falling. If most people who are planning on buying see real estate prices increasing in the future, that suggests that the majority of people who plan to purchase are speculators.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/many-in-bc-see-home-prices-rising-or-steady-in-next-year-really/article7617793/

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 32 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    8

    “Housing markets are a function of the economy. Not the other way around.”

    They haven’t updated their economic models in a decade or so.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    9

    Yeah, I kind of thought the whole argument against juicing the re market and creating this bubble is this:

    “Housing markets should be a function of the economy. Not the other way around.”

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0

    painted turtle Says:
    10

    @Q
    Remember: the survey was made by Remax. This is like Monsento saying GMOs are good for the environment.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 0

    Many Franks Says:
    11

    Demographia’s back with another international housing affordability report.

    The 4.7 figure is a deterioration from last year, when the Canadian figure was 4.5.

    Demographia says that figure would have been higher were it not for a slowdown in Vancouver, with its “grossly overvalued market” resulting in a median multiple score drop from 10.6 to 9.5.
    CHART The slow fall of Canada’s mortgage lending rates

    However, Vancouver’s score was still high enough to rank it second overall on the list, behind Hong Kong. Sydney, Australia, was third internationally.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0

    @Painted Turtle

    Yes, the survey is by Re/MAX. Ironically, I don’t think those stats make a very good argument for the bulls. I take it as a bearish signal that the majority of potential purchasers still don’t see a correction on the horizon. Their motivation to purchase is likely capital appreciation and once they start noticing depreciation many will opt not to buy–putting further downward pressure on prices.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    lazyrenter Says:
    13

    Demographia… from the Heritage Foundation to your eyes.
    I am not arguing with the numbers, nothing wrong with median/median. But the editorializing was tiring. Regulations are Bad! Housing would be cheap if the gubmint just let us pave *everything*. No mention of low interest rates as a cause, and strange gyrations to argue that areas with fewer regulations didn’t have a bubble. And of course, somehow, my tax dollars to pave new highways and run water/sewer to the exurbs – no thank you.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0

    Am I the only one who think of Re/Max logo everytime they mention housing bubble?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0

    Left already living in San Diego Says:
    15

    I cant resist saying this,
    26 degree today here… http://ca.weather.yahoo.com/

    Are you enjoying skiing, golfing and sailing on the best place on earth all at the same day of course?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 25 Thumb down 11

    “-According to an Angus Reid survey of 1100 people who plan to buy real estate within the next two years, 80% believe prices will stay flat or increase”

    I think by definition, those who plan to buy RE wouldn’t be too bearish. And ya, if you still don’t get it, none of you bears would be in this 1100 sample :D Nice way for re/max to screen out all the undesirable stats.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 44 Thumb down 0

    Even the bears must agree this house is cheap — if it sells at listing price:

    http://www.shuchatgroup.com/Properties.php/Details/84

    :D

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    18

    @gokou3

    Maybe a sign of whats to come for Richmond condos.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    “-According to an Angus Reid survey of 1100 people who plan to buy real estate within the next two years, 80% believe prices will stay flat or increase”

    And according to the same survey, 100% of people who plan on buying stocks in the next year or two expect those stock prices to be flat or increase.

    Um yeah, because if I expected the price to decrease I WOULDN’T BUY IT!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 0

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    20

    “And according to the same survey, 100% of people who plan on buying stocks in the next year or two expect those stock prices to be flat or increase.”

    If a stock pays a decent dividend I don’t care if the price stays flat.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 5

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    21

    “Are you enjoying skiing, golfing and sailing on the best place on earth all at the same day of course?”

    I had a great weekend skiing the North Shore mountains with my kids, and plan to go again after work tonight, since it is practically in my backyard. How’s the skiing down in San Diego?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 20

    RaggedyRenter RaggedyRenter Says:
    22

    You may laugh at pumpers’ attempts to paint the picture as rosy and the prices are flat, but you can’t deny that it’s working.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 3

    /dev/null Says:
    23

    Question for the group: the Dec 2012 official stats package states that for North Van SFH the 3-year and 5-year change % are both 5.5%. The current benchmark is $908k and the index is 145. So the prices are 5.5% above Dec 2007 but then the index also suggests that prices are 45% above Jan 2005. So are these both right? A big jump from early 2005 to ~2008 but we’re almost back to 2007 pricing?

    Our landlords are booting us out of the house we’ve been in for 5 years. (She’s divorcing him and booted him out, and we’re next down the eviction chain as he’s moving in when our lease expires in a few months.) So we’re desperately looking for rentals in the same neighbourhood (Cambie) due to schools and work. Or we’ll buy somewhere like North Van and uproot everyone but only once.

    After being around these boards for 5+ years I feel that buying now is akin to climbing out of the lifeboat and back onto the Titanic. The wife has been onside until now, but with the threat of homelessness she’s wavering. So I’m trying to decide how big the potential downsides are. Pay $3k in rent for 1-2 years then buy (and deal with 2 moves) or bite the bullet and buy now and pay that much for the mortgage (until rates go up). The potential savings by renting and delaying a purchase is what I’m trying to estimate.

    Any (constructive) advice appreciated.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    24

    GlobalTV posted a story on Facebook about how Vancouver was the 2nd least affordable city in the world. Here are some of the brilliant comments

    From Crystal Walshe, a realtor:
    “I’m a realtor, and no – it’s not “good” for me, whats good for me is a steady business in a balanced market, where people can buy confidently. But let’s put this in perspective, Vancouver is landlocked and driven by basic supply and demand. Look at New York! It’s simply a matter of sacrificing affordability for lifestyle. Will there come a time that this will balance out, probably not…there are many self made, foreign and family millionaires in this city and its in high demand. So we can either overstate the obvious and complain, or accept the fact that living In a world class city isn’t cheap. Interested Ina few more facts? Check out the YouTube videos on my page to see what 2013 will bring particularly with foreign investment and HST changes…”

    From another commentor:

    “Even million/billionaires move here to Vancouver Island to have a beautiful home on the water and have more money extra to spare!”

    From someone in the construction industry:

    “I beleive this to be entirely bull poo. I am in a brand new house right now. I work in the housing construction industry and i can tell you this. In all 4.5yrs we have never been this busy”

    and

    “Canadian families are buying…doesnt matter where they were from”

    and

    “I wouldnt say these houses are unobtainable. It depends who is lending and hoe much you make in order to borrow so u can purchase a new house. House are and always will be #1 expense of anyones lifetime.”

    There you go, real estate will go up forever in the best place on earth!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 50 Thumb down 0

    Will the Transition from HST to GST Distort the Timing of Real Estate Closings this Spring?

    Please see my new posting: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Will-the-Transition-from-HST-to-GST-Distort-the-Timing-of-Real-Estate-Closings

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Will the Transition from HST to GST Distort the Timing of Real Estate Closings this Spring?

    Nobody pays 12% HST anyway as the 7% portion is taken care of by the provincial rebate. What a person pays for a new place now will be virtually the same they will pay after the HST is no more.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    other ted Says:
    27

    Pretty sad seeing the same arguments being used like “we have great weather, and millionaires moving here” Just came back from southern florida. The weather was amazing and judging by the cars I saw more millionaires on some blocks then we have total. Guess what doing an apples to apples comparison they are way cheaper there. The mansions that are two million down there would be twenty here. Why would a millionaire sell there to come here. Also that argument is bullocks since everthing is overpriced in the lower mainland from apartments in surrey to houses.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 1

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    28

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 18

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    29

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 14

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 17

    @/dev/null @23

    First off, sorry to hear that. Here is my view.

    We (a family with 2 kids) are renting half-a-duplex in Burnaby for $2000/month for about 5 years. Good area, decent schools, commute is ok. The landlord is a nice person, but has (and always had) thoughts about splitting the place into two units and rent them for $1500+$800 (this trick worked for a while for the neighbour landlord, until last year when they have started having problems with finding good tenants for the downstairs unit). I am tracking the rental pool in the area pretty closely and found that a lot of 5bdr/SFH in the $2300-$2500/month range entered the market last year (starting late summer I would say, most of them accidental landlords). Places like ours are steady in the $1800-$2100 range for the last 5 years, and the influx of of those 2300-2500 homes definitely helps keep those prices from growing.

    Last fall, I had a number of conversations with my landlords and gave them the full picture, mentioning that we would have no problem finding something decent in the very same area. Of course, we were perfect tenants all these years. Apparently, it worked out, everybody seems to be happy now.

    Back to your situation. First, I think buying something just because “we have to move out of here anyways” is a plain bad idea. Do the math and then decide. Second, I personally wouldn’t mind renting for another few years in your situation, even if it comes at a bit higher price comparing to the deal you have now. Rental pool in our (yours and mine) sector is improving, it’s renter’s market.

    Yes, I know moving is painful. I know your wife wants a nest (mine too). Yes, – peer/parent pressure, accidental landlord risks etc. But the risk of losing money by buying something is just way too high these days. My $0.02.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 0

    Anonymoose Says:
    32

    #24 Vancouver is a nice city, it is not a world class city. People who call Vancouver a world class city haven’t been to one.

    World class cities have world class food, from haute cuisine to food stands. I can’t tell you how many amazing meals I had in Salzberg. Some of the best pizza I’ve ever had was in a stand buried the La Boqueria in Barcelona.

    World class cities have world class transportation systems, and I’m not talking a new Port Mann bridge and three lanes instead of two. Go to Munich or Barcelona and let’s talk transportation.

    World class cities have history. Fort Langley doesn’t count.

    World class cities have world class universities. Nobody outside of Canada has heard of UBC.

    People think Whistler is world class. It’s a nice place and the resort does a good job. The snow is rarely world class.

    Don’t get me wrong, Vancouver is a really beautiful place. But there isn’t anything world class about it.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 59 Thumb down 23

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    33

    Okay, would any of you who voted me down care to explain why owners who don’t intend sell are irrelevant, but non-owners who don’t intend to buy are not? Honest question. I really want to know.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 9

    #32 Anonymoose, Vancouver world class city

    and ladies…talk about sexy ladies on the streets of Milan, Buenos Aires

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 7

    Anonymoose Says:
    35

    Instead of voting me down tell me what is world class about Vancouver.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 22 Thumb down 11

    Re #28:

    “Is seems pretty important that those who do plan to buy believe the market is flat or about to rise. If this is true then the are likely to make a move soon and possibly cause the market to flatline or rise.”

    you still don’t get it, do you.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    37

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 12

    Anonymous Says:
    38

    “Is seems pretty important that those who do plan to buy believe the market is flat or about to rise.”

    Those that do plan to buy in any market are usually going to believe the market will rise. This would have been true for buyers in Japan over the past 20 years, buyers in the US over past 5 years and buyers in Vancouver in the early 80s at that peak. Of course all were wrong. The problem is there were too few greater fools left to keep the market inflated. Kind of like what we are now seeing in Vancouver. You are one of the last ones Ludvig von Mises! Better buy quick you might be able to stall the crash for about 5 minutes.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 4

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    39

    “Those that do plan to buy in any market are usually going to believe the market will rise.

    Interesting point, Anonymous. But keeping in mind that the market has been falling lately, wouldn’t you expect a significant number of those intending to buy in the next two years to think the market might continue falling for a while, (which in turn might incline them to delay buying for a while)?

    P.s. What’s with the snarky attack at the end of your comment?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 6

    Anonymous Says:
    40

    /dev/null: “Pay $3k in rent for 1-2 years then buy (and deal with 2 moves) or bite the bullet and buy now and pay that much for the mortgage (until rates go up). The potential savings by renting and delaying a purchase is what I’m trying to estimate.”

    If you plan on spending 900K on a house you will save at least 400K by delaying the purchase. Although you may have to wait more like 4 years. That is 100K per after taxes. Seems like a no brainer to me. Just so you know owning is no more enjoyable than renting so any premium you pay over renting is too much. Owning has its own stresses. Especially considering 900K doesn’t get you much in North Van. There will be problems you are not aware of that will make an extra move seem like a day in the park.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 23 Thumb down 4

    “Is seems pretty important that those who do plan to buy believe the market is flat or about to rise. If this is true then the are likely to make a move soon and possibly cause the market to flatline or rise.”

    With an MOI over 11 why should we be concerned by demand side arguments?
    The supply side arguments are now driving the bus.
    Try to keep up.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    42

    http://www.theprovince.com/news/vancouver/Vancouver+highrise+condo+flooded+from+down+vandals/7855778/story.html

    Yikes

    “A downtown Vancouver condominium building suffered extensive water damage when a number of standpipes were opened.

    The Vancouver Fire Department was called to 928 Beatty St. in Yaletown around 6 p.m. Monday to respond to a report of a water leak in a highrise building.

    After climbing the stairs to the 35th floor, firefighters found that at least three standpipes, which are water pipes used for firefighting purposes, had been turned on.

    “It created a waterfall,” said Capt. Gabe Roder.

    The building was evacuated while firefighters secured the area, shut off the water and reactivated the fire alarm system.

    Roder said a “tremendous” amount of water was discharged and there was water in the stairwells and the hallways of the building. He said there was likely damage to the living units as well.”

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    43

    “Interesting point, Anonymous. But keeping in mind that the market has been falling lately, wouldn’t you expect a significant number of those intending to buy in the next two years to think the market might continue falling for a while, (which in turn might incline them to delay buying for a while)?”

    You would think buyers in Japan would have figured this out after 20 years too. They didn’t year after year. Japanese are just as smart as Canadians and we are only in about 6 months to or crash.

    Remember those people who figure this our are now likely not intending to buy and not counted in the survey. They only count those intending to buy which I would guess based on tighter lending and slower sales is declining. Which is why prices drop. Less buyers. We don;t need no buyers, just less.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    44

    “You would think buyers in Japan would have figured this out after 20 years too. They didn’t year after year. Japanese are just as smart as Canadians and we are only in about 6 months to or crash.”

    Sorry, but I don’t understand the comparison to Japan. My comment had to do with a survey that found that Canadians who intend to buy in the next two years overwhelmingly think the market will be flat or go up. Are you saying that for 20 years Japanese buyers have also overwhelmingly thought the market was flat or about to rise?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 12

    “Now, predictions of crashes are on the front cover of Maclean’s and other publications”

    That obviously explains the biggest sales slowdown in recent history.
    Wonder how long it will take for the few remaining fools to get the message.

    I’m always shocked on the rare occasion when I actually see a “sold” sticker on a house that’s been sitting on the market for ages, with asking prices that look impossible to take serious. Even if someone got them 20% below asking I feel sympathetic for the poor guy and can’t help but wonder if he/she won a lotto, got a surprise inheritance, is blind to the market trend, or is just plain stupid.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 3

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    46

    “Are you saying that for 20 years Japanese buyers have also overwhelmingly thought the market was flat or about to rise?”

    Exactly. People who buy any asset overwhelmingly think the price will at worst stay flat, because otherwise they wouldn’t buy in the first place.

    As for Vancouver, I think most people have not yet caught on that prices are falling. And keep in mind that that only a few % of households buy in any given year. So why it is such a stretch to believe that everyone who is buying thinks that prices aren’t going to fall?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 6

    Re #39 Ludwig

    “But keeping in mind that the market has been falling lately, wouldn’t you expect a significant number of those intending to buy in the next two years to think the market might continue falling for a while, (which in turn might incline them to delay buying for a while)?”

    As I said in my original post, in this survey Remax filtered out those who did not intend to buy, so that skewed the results dramatically (probably 99% of the VCI readers here, but of course you would be included). It can be inferred that those who intend to buy did not get the news that the RE market is falling (quick) and are still optimistic / dumb. It may have taken them 10000 calls to find the 1100 people who intend to buy.

    I hope you are not trolling, but I doubt it… anyways.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    MLS V983607
    Listed Price $1

    Why not just sell it on ebay?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 3

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    49

    “Why not just sell it on ebay?”

    eBay bids on real estate aren’t legally binding.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 4

    Groundhog Says:
    50

    “As for Vancouver, I think most people have not yet caught on that prices are falling. And keep in mind that that only a few % of households buy in any given year. So why it is such a stretch to believe that everyone who is buying thinks that prices aren’t going to fall?”

    Exactly, I really don’t think any of the MSM articles as of late have had any effects of people ingrained beliefs….People might now at best say the market might drop another couple of %, but in the long-run it makes sense to buy. I compare it to a scientific article saying god might not be real, it will have zero impact on religious believers.

    Belief in RE in Vancouver is on par with religious beliefs.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1

    ArthurFonzarelli Says:
    51

    addair Says:
    January 22nd, 2013 at 2:55 pm

    “I’m always shocked on the rare occasion when I actually see a “sold” sticker on a house that’s been sitting on the market for ages…Even if someone got them 20% below asking I feel sympathetic for the poor guy and can’t help but wonder if he/she won a lotto, got a surprise inheritance, is blind to the market trend, or is just plain stupid.”

    If someone is getting 20% off assessed (who cares about asking price), I don’t see this as being a ridiculous decision meriting your scorn and derision.

    Using the example of /dev/null’s question – if he/she were to purchase an older SFH in North Van assessed at $650K for closer to $500K (@20% off assessed), the math for renting vs owning starts to make sense, particularly if it’s a primary residence and he/she gets 15-20% of principal paid off in next 5 years at low rates. Even in the event of a market crash/dip/correction of 20-30% over this period, he/she is still going to be close to break-even with renting, plus or minus, if buying at a 20% discount off present assessed value.

    To /dev/null – I’m looking to buy as well sometime soon(ish) and my main criterion is a discount off assessed that’s great enough whereby I could rent it out in the event of a forced sale in the next few years and not have to subsidize the rent by more than a few hundred a month if needed. If you’re forced to sell at a 30% loss and be underwater in 2-3 years because you can’t rent it, I say don’t buy until the rental equation becomes more favourable. So FWIW I think about 20% lower than present assessed gets you in that “neighbourhood.”

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 5

    RealityCheck Says:
    52

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    53

    “As I said in my original post, in this survey Remax filtered out those who did not intend to buy, so that skewed the results dramatically (probably 99% of the VCI readers here, but of course you would be included).”

    You’re right that this was not a survey of the general population; it was a survey of those “in the market” so to speak. Which brings me to my point: I have so often seen the point made here that market changes are determined only by those serious about selling. An owner who decides to “sit out the slow market” is totally irrelevant. This makes sense and I don’t disagree. But, my question is, why doesn’t the same apply on the buyer side? Why do you and the other bears here on VCI matter? You said Remax (or whoever did that survey) screened the undesirable statistics, but maybe they screened out the irrelevant statistics. I find it interesting that those screened as interested in buying relatively soon (within two years) don’t think the market is going to drop and that it might go up. This is not as obvious as some here seem to think: I would have expected there to be a significant number of people intending to buy with in year or two, but waiting for now because prices are still coming down.

    The question which is not answered is whether that group of people intending to buy is large enough to turn things around. Honestly I don’t know, and I don’t think you know either.

    By the way, no I am not trolling, and I do not intend to buy. I am one of the irrelevant owners, with no intention to sell.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 5

    RealityCheck Says:
    54

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 14

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    55

    “my main criterion is a discount off assessed that’s great enough whereby I could rent it out in the event of a forced sale in the next few years and not have to subsidize the rent by more than a few hundred a month if needed”

    What does assessed value have to do with it?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2

    Re #52:

    “RE won’t correct significantly unless:

    (1) Rates rise significantly (Monthly carrying costs!!)
    (2) Unemployment spikes (Again, servicing Monthly costs.)
    (3) Population growth of Metro slows down let alone decrease (see all the basement suites that are rented??)”

    None of these occurred when the US RE began to bust

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 4

    @RealityCheck:

    You are right that people in India love to emulate Bollywood stars. Part of the deal that Clark negotiated is that they have to film a Bollywood film here in BC. It does seem that Christy Clark is looking to increase Vancouver’s media exposure in India and around the world with this. From the Vancouver Sun:

    “Clark said the Times of India is the largest media organization in that country and reaches 90 million people a day. She called that a “tremendous opportunity” for a rapidly growing middle class of Indians to learn about tourism and business opportunities in B.C.

    The premier said India’s middle class is expected to grow from just 50 million to 583 million in the next 15 years, which will unleash enormous buying potential for B.C. imports and tourism.

    The awards, which will be held from April 4 to April 6, with multiple events held around Metro Vancouver, are expected to draw 30,000 people in the audience and will be broadcast around the world.

    “The Times of India Film Awards will be seen by hundreds of millions of people in one of the world’s fastest growing economies and Vancouver will be centre stage.” said Clark.

    To bring the awards to B.C., the government paid $9.5 million in matching funding to the Times and an additional $1.5 million for various activities during the event, including a business forum…

    One of the conditions of the agreement with the Times, said Clark, was that a Bollywood movie would be shot in B.C. creating jobs for those in the hard hit industry.”

    http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/Vancouver+host+Times+India+film+awards/7855219/story.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 8

    “I have so often seen the point made here that market changes are determined only by those serious about selling. An owner who decides to “sit out the slow market” is totally irrelevant. This makes sense and I don’t disagree. But, my question is, why doesn’t the same apply on the buyer side? Why do you and the other bears here on VCI matter?’

    The same applies, but your logic flaw is thinking that “80% of the intended buyer think the prices not going down” implies a bullish signal. What the survey didn’t show, by its filter, is the pool of intended buyer could have shrinken dramatically. There’s no basis (at least from this survey) that there’s pent-up demand as you projected.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3

    …Continued

    Thinking another way, if you conduct the same survey annually for the past five years, you could have had the same results (80% intended buyer thinking prices not going down), but that does not indicate the size of the buying pool.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    60

    ” Even in the event of a market crash/dip/correction of 20-30% over this period, he/she is still going to be close to break-even with renting, plus or minus, if buying at a 20% discount off present assessed value. ”

    Are you saying that someone buying now can break even with renting if prices fall 20-30% from purchase price going forward? Even at 0% interest that doesn’t work.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 7

    @ /dev/null:

    There are several hundred thousand reasons not to buy now. Seriously, the move is like having a baby tooth taken out: you dread it beforehand, but once it’s done, you realise it wasn’t all that bad. I know it can be daunting when you have lived in the same place for a while. We moved after 5 years in the same house. We have no regrets; it turned out to be far better than where we were living before.

    Stay the course; it’s too early to capitulate. Do the math, and your wife will be on board again. That’s what we did; we very seriously considered buying, and the wife was looking up tons of listings. Realising how much more diposable income you have while renting, and the predictability of the monthly costs versus the unexpected costs of home ownership convinced us to wait, even though it was not yet apparent that the expected correction was in the works.

    You can scoop up an extra 100k per year in reductions by renting. The move will be a nice opportunity to get rid of some junk and streamline. Once it is past, you won’t regret the decision. Buying is something you may regret for a lifetime.

    Just my $0.02.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 22 Thumb down 3

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    62

    “A little part of me fears the international media attention on the Bollywood Awards could ignite a new wave of foreign investment in Vancouver real estate.”

    Hosting the Oscars and Golden Globes every year didn’t stop metro LA from dropping 40%.

    As for movie star pads, we’ve had lots of examples on this forum of their houses going for less than Vancouver crapshacks.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 23 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    63

    …Don’t get me wrong, Vancouver is a really beautiful place. But there isn’t anything world class about it…

    Wrong! You missed Vancouver’s one World class attribute: World class rain.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 6

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    64

    “There’s no basis (at least from this survey) that there’s pent-up demand as you projected.”

    True. I would have liked to see the number of calls made and the proportion NOT intending to buy in the next two years. Similarly, I would be really curious to know the number of owners who want, need or must sell in the same time period. Finally of course, I would like to see how many people are in both groups, i.e. wanting to sell in order to buy something else.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 4

    Groundhog Says:
    65

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

    perma-renter Says:
    66

    I love moving. The longest I’ve ever lived in one apartment is 3 years. I usually move every year or two. Sometimes I move after only a few months. Some of my moves have been because I was renovicted by the landlord. Sometimes I move because the landlord never does repairs and I am sick of taking him to the RTB. But even if there are no problems with the apartment, I’ll start thinking about moving after one year. After two years in the same apartment, I start getting really antsy to move. Real estate bubble aside, I could never buy real estate because I could never commit to live somewhere long term. I don’t really understand how people do it? Don’t they get bored with their homes after a few years? Don’t they get tired of looking at the same view every day for years on end?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 14

    Anonymous Says:
    67

    …This will put Vancouver on the Radar. Chrisy Clark is not that stupid; The RE complex is behind this….

    It must be tough for folks around the world that watch both the Boscars and the Oscars, they have to move twice every year.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    68

    ….was that a Bollywood movie would be shot in B.C….

    Wouldn’t that make it ‘Vollywood?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Burbs Boy Says:
    69

    Milan… ohhhhhh yes Milan…. and that is all I have to say about the women in Milan. If you have been there you know it to be true. There are truely some amazing “world class” cities in Italy… from Genoa to Rome to Milan (you will notice that I left Venice off the list). Lets see Vancouver try to pull off something like Notte Bianca. The “white night” is a prime example of what a world class city can pull off. I grew up in Vancouver and after broadening my horizons I was completely blown away by what is out there in the wider world. Vancouver simply is not in this league. Yet.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 4

    goingdown Says:
    70

    Could this be why list prices are so high?
    Collecting listings..
    http://jefffeaver.wordpress.com

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    shriller Says:
    71

    I found the comments from the Japanese Finance Minister quite interesting ready today. His solution to the looming entitlements problem is simply to minimize the entitlement. Shocking, perhaps, but undeniably this would work.
    There is a big generational divide in Vancouver (and BC) too. And it’s two pronged: mortgage rule changes to keep the PV of the purchase price high via amortization; and, looming entitlement crunch from rising health care costs and falling revenues. Ironically here, I think the young and mobile will leave rather than pay for either. These are usually the high earners. Similar to the exodus from Britain in the early 1960s.
    How will the boomers entice them to stay (or come back) so our future Minister of Finance doesn’t say the same thing? Or is the plan to tap Equalization funds from the Feds?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 5

    Anonymous Says:
    72

    …..The BC Government is spending $9.5 million so that Vancouver can host the Times of India Film Awards…..

    So, let me get this straight: the BC government has to pay somebody to come here so that that others will think Vancouver is great. Riiiiiight.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 6

    Either no new listings today… or MLS is flooded with listings and the system is stalled.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

    HAM Solo Says:
    74

    Driving out to UBC this afternoon and passed by Chip Wilson’s mansion en progres on Pt Grey waterfront.

    Should only be referred to by its Twitter hashtags #moremoneythansense #nouveauricheeyesore #whereiskatosroom

    Will make a nice private hospital one day, or perhaps be ransacked for ship ballast during the great concrete shortage of 2087

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 8

    /dev/null Says:
    75

    Thanks to 31)C.Junta 40)Anonymous 51)ArthurFonzarelli and 61)TPFKAA for the responses. Very much appreciated.

    I’m with you on the 100k/year savings but I think we can all agree it’s a prediction with a certain amount of uncertainty, in both magnitude and timeframe. But the savings by waiting are likely to be larger than an short rent increase. Moving the kids’ school once to a new rental and then again in a year or two when we buy is really what we want to avoid. We’ll probably end up finding a rental close enough to commute the kids a few minutes to their current school.

    66)perma-renter: I take your point (if it was made to me) but you probably don’t have small kids in school. If it was just my wife and I then the moving wouldn’t be much of an issue.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    76

    “So, let me get this straight: the BC government has to pay somebody to come here so that that others will think Vancouver is great. Riiiiiight.”

    Or, more likely, because they think they’ll get more than $9.5m long term benefit.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 3

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    77

    /dev/null

    “I’m with you on the 100k/year savings but I think we can all agree it’s a prediction with a certain amount of uncertainty, in both magnitude and timeframe.”

    “a certain amount of uncertainty.” That is some very delicate and diplomatic wording, but still a brave thing to say in this forum!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    78

    goingdown aka Jeff Fever: “Could this be why list prices are so high?
    Collecting listings..”

    Jeff we all know asking prices are meaningless and selling prices are what counts. Selling prices went up with cheaper and easier credit. They are going down as credit tightens. The fact there are places priced above market because some realtors are so desperate they have no choice (otherwise they can’t get a listing) is irrelevant. Any successful realtor wouldn’t bother with this tactic. I doubt it ever lands a commission. In most cases the realtor gets dumped and the seller gets a new realtor who prices the place properly.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 4

    RE: MLS V983607
    Listed Price $1 On that Site
    Actual MLS price $355K

    Just saying.. someone is asleep at the wheel or doesn’t give a Sh!t :)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    New Listings 277
    Price Changes 56
    Sold Listings 67
    TI:13593

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 133 Thumb down 0

    hesitant Says:
    81

    /dev/null: “Pay $3k in rent for 1-2 years then buy (and deal with 2 moves) or bite the bullet and buy now and pay that much for the mortgage (until rates go up). The potential savings by renting and delaying a purchase is what I’m trying to estimate.”

    I think your issues include the following:
    1. uncertainty about upcoming real estate depreciation (timing and magnitude)
    2. family issues that favour real estate “certainty” – wife needing a nest, children needing specific school district, etc
    3. desire to minimize nuisance value and cost of multiple moves

    Regardless of what everyone on this type of site says and hopes, #1 is still very unclear. If you lean towards depreciation of an amount that is material to you, then perhaps you might consider renting in the exact location (north van in this case) where you might eventually plan to buy – change the kids over to the desired long-term school district, and see what life is like. If its good, then being “on the ground” there will help you better understand the market, and specific streets/locations that suit your family. If life is not all you and your family hoped for, then you find out cheaply (the cost of an extra move). Good luck deciding.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 4

    Best place on meth Says:
    82

    Inventory up another +172.

    I’m still waiting for sales to pick up.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 54 Thumb down 5

    RaggedyRenter RaggedyRenter Says:
    83

    @RealityCheck

    RE won’t correct significantly unless:

    (1) Rates rise significantly (Monthly carrying costs!!)
    (2) Unemployment spikes (Again, servicing Monthly costs.)
    (3) Population growth of Metro slows down let alone decrease (see all the basement suites that are rented??)

    ===============================================
    This is how I felt about RE correction too. It will probably correct a bit but it will not correct significantly unless interest rate rises. However consider this very possible chain of event:
    1. Let’s pretend if no external events are changing, Vancouver RE corrects 10-20%, Canada RE corrects 5-10%. As we have seen, sales slows to a skid.
    2. There’s no need for population change really, we’re already overbuilt. i.e. the population change that we expected are not materializing. When you’re preparing a seminar for 1000 attendees and only 800 shows up, you’re left with 200 empty chairs. It’s the same as holding a seminar for 1000 people and 200 left midway. There’s your #3, and a slightly lower downside.
    3. Triggers rise in unemployment, lower GDP. Especially magnified in Vancouver where F.I.R.E industries makes up a chunk of our GDP. Less sales, less money for RE agents, brokers, lawyers, governments, bankers, movers, IKEA. There’s your #2. This will provide another new lower downside to RE price.
    3. US recovery and Canada new slump will probably lower our dollar. Triggers inflation, triggers an increase in rates because BOC mandate is inflation control. There’s your #1.
    4. Ontario manufacturing will probably comes back when we have a lower dollar and right-to-work. If Ontario is roaring, NO WAY Conservative is going to change the formula to save Vancouver hipsters. If they save Ontario, they pretty much lock the next 5 years. Another inflation risk, another rate increase, another lower downside.
    5. If Ontario is roaring and BC is slumping and BC NDP is on the throne what would aspiring workers that used to be employed in the F.I.R.E industries do?
    It’s a circle going up, it’s a circle of hell going down.

    If you’re foreign investors, you will be hit with a combo of lower price, lower CAD, and possibly higher carrying cost with dim outlook. While we see 30% lower price, they might see 45% drop. If that doesn’t scare people from buying a Vancouver Villa I don’t know what will.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 1

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    84

    good thoughts Raggedy, i enjoyed reading them. fully plausible.

    so, 300+ listings, we finally saw that yesterday…more to come…sales suck…good…that said, i’m still hoping we see a fucking SURGE in listings…has yet to occur…

    RATES – I call bullshit…I think mortgage rates will be higher THIS MONTH, as the shift from bonds into equities appears to be underway..yes, some politics/theatre/debt ceiling will push things around, but the Cdn 10 year has gone from 1.5% to 2.0%+ over the past few weeks…if it stays above two (and drifts a bit higher), look for the 2.99% 5 year fixed to become a thing of the PAST. Watch for 3.3% to become the new floor…and so on…a very gentle increase in rates will still starve this market, slowly.

    I want a fast crash, down 40% from peak in a hurry, and fear left and right…but what i want and what will be may not be the same…my base case (frustratingly so to a large degree) is for a continued slump, RE becomes a non subject, and we wake up in 2 years a full 30% off peak (with higher rates), but its sllllooowwww…and still to fall another 10%….Still cheaper to rent…that would be frustrating, still productive, but not what i want to see in a best case scenario…

    Stack cash, invest invest invest – is this the time that the stock market roars (and starves out the bond market)???? I think so, although ever so slowly…

    Interesting times….yvr, any thoughts on average prices?

    when did prices peak in 2012? the year over year comparative at that point should become headline news in the Vancouver Sun..you heard it here first. Don’t forget it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 3

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    85

    correction, the 10 yr has gone from 1.75% to 2+….

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

    midnite toker midnite toker Says:
    86

    Well our marijuana is world class at least. We’re probably the number one place for designer yoga wear, lots of inexpensive but delicious Sushi places. Probably the worst place in Canada to own and insure a car,$$$$ yet our transit system is a joke. But I was born here and am fairly settled down so ill keep renting for now. Fuck it’s better than Toronto at least right?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 6

    HAM Solo Says:
    87

    As I understand it, an awful lot of sales are being made subject to financing and/or closing of the other end of the deal. But somewhere in the chain, there’s someone who can’t get financing or whose house wont sell. That may explain why we are seeing lots of “sold” signs, but not many actual completed sales.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 4

    Groundhog Says:
    88

    We’re doomed…..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9815998/Chinas-Communist-party-cadres-launch-property-fire-sale.html

    “A report by the Communist Party’s powerful anti-corruption unit, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CDIC), said “a wave of luxury home sales began last November and has accelerated since December.

    It said the volume of deals had intensified by “a hundred times” after Xi Jinping, the incoming Chinese president, warned that corruption could kill the Party and put one of the country’s most vigorous and resolute politicians, Wang Qishan, in charge of stamping out graft.”

    Judging by sales, looks like none of this money found its way into Vancouver.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 2

    @ /dev/null:

    We also have small kids in school. Managed to keep the same school and they didn’t get squished under a pile of boxes during the move :) They also took the disruption totally in stride, and never expressed that they missed the old place. They were just thrilled and excited to be in a new place. If your apprehension is for their sake, don’t worry. As long as they have the same school they will be fine.

    (I’m also with Perma-renter – if there were no small kids, I’d probably be living in my umpteenth country now, let alone apartment! By the age of 24 I had had over 30 addresses where I stayed long enough that people actually mailed me stuff.)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 3

    I mean over 20. I just counted again – been a while since I quoted that stat so it swelled a little in memory :) It’s nonetheless quite impressive.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    91

    The 10yr is at 1.91 not 2+.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

    Arthur Fonzarelli Says:
    92

    @ Patriotz re: “Are you saying that someone buying now can break even with renting if prices fall 20-30% from purchase price going forward? Even at 0% interest that doesn’t work.”

    I just did the math for SFHs in the Burquitlam / Moody area, and 3 bdrm houses assessed/selling in the $500K range seemed to be renting for around $2K/month. If someone were to buy at a 20% reduction in price (from $500K-$400K) with a 3% rate your mortgage carrying costs are about equal to rent i.e. $2K. So if carrying costs are at break-even, and the market were to drop (or be down) 20% in 5 years but you’ve paid off 20% of the principal, you’re still at break-even, non?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 4

    phiscal. Says:
    93

    @midnight toker – True nuff! In Toronto they mix it with tobacco. Heathens.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

    “Judging by sales, looks like none of this money found its way into Vancouver.”

    That article is about “dumping” properties at “firesale” prices. The only way properties can be dumped is if there’s someone willing to buy them. And yes, given the lackluster sales volumes in Vancouver, that presents a bit of a problem. Either that or there wasn’t that much “HAM” in the first place.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    Groundhog Says:
    95

    @Jesse

    “That article is about “dumping” properties at “firesale” prices. The only way properties can be dumped is if there’s someone willing to buy them. And yes, given the lackluster sales volumes in Vancouver, that presents a bit of a problem. Either that or there wasn’t that much “HAM” in the first place.”

    I think you misread the article, it’s about them dumping them at firesale prices in China, and smuggling the money out into other countries…It mentions the US and Cayman Islands. It says the trend accelerated it “began last November [2012] and has accelerated since December”:

    “Luxury properties are being dumped on the market in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou for anyone able to pay in cash as crooked officials try to cover their tracks.”

    “The CDIC report, which was obtained by the Economic Observer newspaper, suggested that nearly 10,000 luxury homes had been sold by government officials in Guangzhou and Shanghai alone last year.
    It also claimed that an astonishing $1 trillion (£630 billion), equivalent to 40 per cent of Britain’s annual GDP, had been smuggled out of China illegally in 2012.”

    “Marco Pearman-Parish at Corporation China, a company in Beijing that helps clients find properties abroad, said there had been a strong rise in clients looking for homes in the Cayman Islands.”

    “In the United States, the National Association of Realtors said that more than $7 billion of properties had been bought by Chinese in the US last year. Some high-end homes are now specifically built for rich Chinese with ponds for koi carp and a second kitchen for pungent cooking.”

    This being the case, it seems significant to me that none of this money appears to be coming to Vancouver.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 2

    That’s almost 100 sales today LOL!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    RE ABR designation…. Anyone know if all RE agents have this? If not they should, and also abide to. ABR – accredited buyer representative. What a load of terds me goin to continue renting my freedom!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    #71 – - Done . . Young, mobile, high earner, very involved locally including supporting significant cultural organizations – - – GONE!!!!

    Solutions? Decide if you want policies in place to promote Vancouver as a resort town or a real city with balance between all the economic factors that a city has.

    I can’t make a post without some stats.

    1.) Looks like all areas are heading for higher MOI in January than last year.
    2.) Inventory will be up overall compared to last year by approx 8%. This gap will likely close over coming 3 months.
    3.) We are starting to see flatlining of the market (seasonally adjusted). We are not getting any worse now.
    4.) Prices are not falling as fast any more – but this will continue to bea affected by the MOI. (From Feb-May – expect price flat or possibly up followed by 7 months of declines).
    5.) Inventory of Van-West SFH will end lower than last year January but only slightly. MOI up due to 13% sales decrease.
    6.) Van-East SFH down 40% in sales over last Jan and MOI up to 9 from 4.4
    7.) Biggest loser is North Van going from 3.5 MOI to 8.1.
    Month MOI to 11 from 8.

    So we have a slow market with falling prices. Stats are not in favour of any price increases. However, the rate of decrease is slowing and will slow at least through spring.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    Some Guy Says:
    99

    @92 “I just did the math for SFHs in the Burquitlam / Moody area, and 3 bdrm houses assessed/selling in the $500K range seemed to be renting for around $2K/month.”

    In all of Port Moody there is one house for sale for less than $575,000 (a hideous shack nowhere near Burquitlam).

    In Coquitlam West (which contains the Burquitlam area, naturally), there is one house for sale for under $500k. The second cheapest is listed at $520,000, and is a 1,200 sq. ft shack with one bathroom that is right on Clarke Road and the listing ‘boasts’ that it is currently rented for $800.

    I did a craiglist search for ‘Coquitlam detached’ and got rents of $1,580, $1,690, $1,695, $1,750, $1,795, $1,800 and $2,400 (for a 5 bed 3500 sq. ft in the philosophically inclined ‘west wood plato’ neighbourhood, as the ad tells it).

    Maybe you have some examples to support your math, but it doesn’t match what I’m seeing.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0

    JojoMalone Says:
    100

    Burbs Boy, fyi, http://vancouver.dinerenblanc.info/. Vancouver had a White Night last year and will host another this summer.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Bo Xilai Says:
    101

    Bloomberg news: China Growth Sets Vancouver Home Prices: Chart of the Day

    Vancouver’s housing market may
    depend on the strength of China’s economy as much as anything
    that happens in Canada.

    http://bloom.bg/WlQN0t

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

    yvr2zrh Says:
    102

    #84 – - Not sure if you were calling for me but . .

    Average price for Jan looking to be up about 5% from Jan. Couple of main reasons are that on a very small sale base, we have had a few $5M+ homes selling. The impact was so large that if you excluded even the top 10 sales for the whole month, prices would be down.

    HPI move is likely to be down less than .5% for the mont. Richmond doing very badly and just saw a couple of sales there close to $200,000 off asking and more than 20% down. VanWest – - it is clear that the floor price of building lots are now set and not falling any more as there have been a few 5 day listings which sold for over asking of tear down (POS’s . . . ). High end seeing 10% off still.

    so – - where are we going? Down – but we’re looking for 3-4 months of flat to slightly up as people decide they have to buy. However – - this market may be different this time as all move-up buyers are having tough time selling.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    Ulsterman Ulsterman Says:
    103

    Q: Not shocked at all that the majority have no clue about market corrections. The majority read nothing beyond the copy of the Sun/Province that lie around the office. I don’t mean that disrespectfully, but in my experience people JUST DON”T READ. I work with professionals and when i bring up an issue (real estate, politics outside of BC, finance etc) most think i’m some sort of intellectual – i’m just curious. They frequently laugh saying, “Where do you get this stuff!”

    /dev/null: If you’ve endured the pain of reading real estate blogs for 5 years while watching SFH’s escalate in price, don’t capitulate now! That truly would add insult to the injury you probably already feel as you listen to your smug owner friends talk about prices only ever going up. Hang tight. I have 3 young kids and feel your pain. I was forced out of what i thought was a great SFH-rental situation and stumbled into an even better one. This may not happen to you, but you never know. If the stories of accidental landlords are correct, you may be able to find another reasonably priced house with a lease of 3-5 years.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 2

    RealityCheck Says:
    104

    is anyone else having issues with this site with reading comments??

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3

    Groundhog Says:
    105

    Helmut Pastrick just repeated land supply constraints argument on Global…

    Says we have limits on the south because of the US border. I wonder if he has ever driven to the border?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 0

    Total days	21
    Days elapsed so far	15
    Weekends / holidays	7
    Days missing	0
    Days remaining	6
    7 Day Moving Average: Sales	61
    7 Day Moving Average: Listings	256
    SALES	
    Sales so far	858
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	364
    Projected month end total	1222
    NEW LISTINGS	
    Listings so far	3588
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1538
    Projected month end total	5126
    Sell-list so far	23.9%
    Projected month-end sell-list	23.8%
    MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
    Inventory as of Jan 22, 2013	13593
    MoI at this sales pace	11.13
    

    New listings projections settling in comfortably over 5K. Very nice.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 34 Thumb down 1

    I concur with yvr2zrh. February and March are always the lowest MoI months of the year. Unlikely to see big price drops then. It is when there is a huge amount of inventory left in the 2nd half of the year that prices will likely resume a steady downward pace.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    IIRC there have been price increases from March to June in all but two of the past 16 years. The two exceptions were in the 1990s. The last decade saw prices increase in the spring without fail.

    If prices are flat or down from March to June in 2013, that is a bearish indicator. That means that price weakness in the second half is likely (though not certain as 2010 showed). It would take a significant rebound in housing investment to stave off weakness in the second half, however. I don’t think the stimulus in Asia or the stimulus in North America is strong enough, nor do I think Vancouver-area credit conditions are as loose as they were previously.

    In such conditions, with flat prices in the spring, YOY price changes will continue to degrade through the spring (YOY price changes will degrade unless prices rise in the spring). To get prices to be flat for the spring would require MOI to average about 7-8 over that period. Realistically to get those conditions will require sales to remain low relative to last year. I’m not yet seeing enough inventory growth to get MOI into the 7-8 range. Note that inventory in the late 1990s was higher than the current trend is looking for 2013.

    I’m still calling for -6% to -4% YOY for the March Teranet HPI. That’s not exactly what I’d call a “soft landing” (if the prediction is right)!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    109

    “If someone were to buy at a 20% reduction in price (from $500K-$400K)… and the market were to drop (or be down) 20% in 5 years but you’ve paid off 20% of the principal, you’re still at break-even, non?”

    OK you buy a house now for $400K that you could buy for $280K in 5 years. That means the house price is falling by $2000 a month.

    Isn’t is obvious right there that someone renting the same place for $2000/month and buying for $280K 5 years later is going to come out ahead?

    Buying later for less always beats buying for more now, unless you have very low price/rent (100 or less).

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    110

    “OK you buy a house now for $400K that you could buy for $280K in 5 years.”

    My mistake, that’s a 30% decline. So let’s correct that to a 20% decline over 5 years, i.e, to $320K.

    4% of $400K is $16K/year or $1333/month. Property taxes would be a least $300/month, add insurance and maintenance and again you’re over $2000/month even without considering costs of capital (interest rates).

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    Keeping An Eye On The Pimps Says:
    111

    “Helmut Pastrick just repeated land supply constraints argument on Global”
    Helmet, Muir and Tsur remind me of the 3 witches in Macbeth.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0

    vancouverguy Says:
    112

    Teranet is out today.

    Drops in house prices nation wide, led by Vancouver. Year over year is down in Van, and will gain momentum as there was a big peak last spring.

    http://www.housepriceindex.ca/

    Ugly.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 0

    yvr2zrh Says:
    113

    #105 – - I would agree with Helmut’s comment when the border between White Rock and Blaine begins to look like it does when you look over the fence at the Bombay Airport. Now – that’s the effect a “border” can have when land is scarce. We are not even close to running out of land. . . . !!!!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    From The Province article: http://www.theprovince.com/Vancouver+prices+rich/7858625/story.html

    “The idea is that, ‘I want to be here so badly that I’m willing to pay higher rent and make lower salary,’ ” said Tsur Somerville, a real-estate expert and professor with the University of B.C.’s Sauder School of Business. “There’s a perception right now that (Vancouver’s) an attractive place to be.”

    He noted that while the report might identify other regions as being more affordable places to live, they may not offer as much in return as Vancouver. The professor cited the West Coast scenery, culture and lifestyle, mild weather – and even our hockey team – as things not taken into account when determining the demand for attractive places to put down roots.”

    Yep. With one hockey team we are just like New York (two hockey teams, two football teams, two baseball teams, two basketball teams).

    Tsur, you are adorable.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 1

    yvr2zrh Says:
    115

    I won’t even begin to pick apart the flaws in the text in the Province article – - I’ll let the blog do it as we all probably can see how it is completely off-based with thte analysis.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    Keeping An Eye On The Pimps Says:
    116

    “The professor cited the West Coast scenery, culture and lifestyle, mild weather – and even our hockey team – as things not taken into account when determining the demand for attractive places to put down roots.””

    How much more evidence do we need that the mold has penetrated Tsur’s brain, and rendered it dysfunctional?

    Time for disclosure Tsur, are you an imbecile, or are you invested up to your eyeballs in Vancouver Real Estate Speculation?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 0

    Mohican’s Teranet HPI to MOI correlation, updated with the latest data. The red dot of interest is the one on the right, corresponding to December.

    http://twitpic.com/bxmvs6

    The negative correlation is very high.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 0

    Girlbear Says:
    118

    UPDATE 1-Canada house prices fall in December from Nov-Teranet
    23 Jan 2013 09:50 ET

    * Prices down in December from November in 8 of 11 markets

    * Fourth straight monthly decline

    * Prices up 3.1 percent from a year ago, lowest rate in 3 years

    By Andrea Hopkins

    TORONTO, Jan 23 (Reuters) – Canadian home prices fell in December from November and year-over-year price gains were the lowest in three years as Canada’s housing market continued to cool, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed on Wednesday.

    The index, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed overall prices fell 0.4 percent in December from a month earlier, the fourth straight monthly decline, a first outside of a recession, and the fourth December monthly decline in 13 years of data.

    The index was up 3.1 percent from a year earlier, the 13th consecutive month of deceleration in 12-month inflation and the lowest rate in three years.

    The report adds to recent evidence that Canadian housing market activity has been slowing steadily since the middle of 2012. Economists are now debating whether the market will crash or manage a soft landing.

    Canada’s housing market avoided a meltdown in the wake of the financial crisis in 2009, helped by the country’s conservative lending standards. Ultra-low interest rates then helped fuel a post-crisis boom.

    Canadian housing is now swooning just as the U.S. market is showing some signs of a long-awaited recovery.

    Canada’s Conservative government last year tightened mortgage lending rules to make it harder for home buyers to take on too much debt in a bid to slow the nation’s red-hot housing market. The changes, which took effect in July, were the fourth such move in four years.

    The report showed prices dropped in December from November in eight of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, led by a 1.0 percent drop in Vancouver, a 0.9 percent decline in Calgary and a 0.7 percent decrease in Halifax and Winnipeg. Prices slid 0.3 percent in Toronto and Montreal and 0.1 percent in Edmonton and Ottawa.

    Three cities saw price gains in the month. Prices rose 1.7 percent in Quebec City and 0.9 percent in Victoria and Hamilton.

    Year-on-year prices dropped 2.0 percent in Vancouver, which had the hottest housing market prior to the slowdown. Prices in Victoria were flat compared to a year earlier.

    All of the other markets surveyed showed prices were still higher than a year ago.

    Compared with December 2011, prices were 7.4 percent higher in Hamilton, 6.3 percent higher in Toronto, 5.6 percent higher in Halifax, 4.2 percent higher in Quebec, 4.1 percent higher in Calgary, up 3.9 percent in Winnipeg, up 3.0 percent in Montreal, 2.6 percent higher in Ottawa, 1.5 percent higher in Edmonton.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    119

    ….Or, more likely, because they think they’ll get more than $9.5m long term benefit….

    Or why not, since everybody wants to come here, let them come, get the long term benefit, and have it not cost taxpayers a dime. Good grief.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    Best place on meth Says:
    120

    Tsur is not a real professor, he just plays one on TV.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 51 Thumb down 1

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    121

    I like how they twisted things in that Province article to also apply that affordablity metric to rents…then to compare Vancouver rents to New York.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    122

    “Bank Of Canada Will Keep Interest Rates Low Longer, Says It Underestimated Economy Weakness”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/01/23/bank-of-canada-interest-rates_n_2533631.html?utm_hp_ref=canada

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 17

    vancouverguy Says:
    124

    Hot of the press: housing sales down 52.1% YOY in Toronto.

    http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/23/toronto-housing-sales-plummet-50-in-a-year/

    Soft landing my a–

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 0

    I think the worst thing about the Province article is that all of the examples it gives are rental examples, but the issue they are discussing is purchase affordability, not rental affordability. Rents here, like everywhere else, are set at what the market can bear but, in the case of Vancouver at this point in time, that has nothing to do with purchase prices.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    MadasHell Says:
    126

    The Housing market is crashing even without the help of interest rates raising. When the full blown housing crash occurs, I doubt interest rates will ever rises.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    Make sure to get your name tags ready for February 8th, aka’Say Hi Vancouver’ Day!e On that day, Vancouverites are encouraged to wear name tags and say hi to strangers. Shelley Koorbatoff came up with this idea after having experienced a hard time making friends since she arrived in Vancouver two years ago. From CBC:

    “A Vancouver woman wants everyone to wear name tags one day next month in order to make the city friendlier for new arrivals.

    When Shelley Koorbatoff moved to Vancouver two years ago, she didn’t think it would be difficult to make new friends.

    Two years later, she still knows almost nobody outside her office, she told Rick Cluff on CBC Radio One’s The Early Edition on Wednesday morning.

    “I’ve met almost no one outside of work. I’ve seen my neighbours a handful of times and I really don’t know them,” said Koorbatoff…

    So Koorbatoff came up with Say Hi Vancouver. Her goal is to have everyone wear a nametag on Feb. 8 in the hope that people will reach out to one another.”

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/01/23/bc-say-hi-vancouver-day.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    Short'em High Says:
    128

    @Q: Name Tags.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClgIMfgqfvM

    Gregor will be thrown out office after the inevitable “name tag fiasco”.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Burbs Boy Says:
    129

    @JojoMalone “http://vancouver.dinerenblanc.info/. Vancouver had a White Night last year and will host another this summer.”

    Hello Jojo. I don’t know what your background is so don’t take this as a personal response to you…

    This is a prime example of the need for people in Vancouver to broaden their horizons. To compare Vancouver’s “White Night” (a dinner event that perhaps 1000+ people went to), to the White Night festivals in Europe is ridiculous. It is like some country bumkin in Kamloops saying “we have a museum too… just like London”. Some of the Notte Bianca have 1+ MILLION people attend. The last one I was at in Italy probably had 500,000 people (perhaps more as these things happen over such as huge area it is hard to tell). There are a bunch of cities just in Italy that can pull this off (we will not even count all the other White Nights all over Europe)… there is not a single city in Canada that I think could pull this off… maybe T.O. as I don’t know it particularly well… others who know it better could say. Those cities make some sense when you hear of insane prices for an apartment or house. Some of these cities are very dense in population/sq. km for huge huge distances. Vancouver… it does not make sense once you go and see for yourself. Once I had been there and had seen it, I came back to Vancouver with a new appreciation for why I love Vancouver and why I stay. But those are the reasons of a “local boy”; not of a wealthy immigrant looking for the “best place on earth”. As for “running out of land”… that is garbage. You could mow down all the single level junk along Hastings and make it the density of Paris or Rome and probably increase the number of people living there 10 fold or more. We don’t live at any where near the densities of true world class cities.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 0

    select “RateMyProfessors.com” reviews of Prof. Tsur Somerville:

    1. Like other people have said, if he likes you he’ll really put effort into being a mentor and helping you in the industry. Great guy! (…if he likes you…)
    2. BE PREPARED TO TEACH YOURSELF A LOT! I really felt like I learnt very little in this class. However, I ended up getting a very good grade in his class. (probably because he likes you)
    3. I personally detest Tsur. I have had horrible experiences in multiple of this classes. I find him extremely disrespectful to me, useless during office hours. He does not teach the material, his sarcasm is distasteful and offensive. He has made me cry multiple times. He things its funny that he cannot remember peoples names – it’s rude! grow up (you shouldn’t have mentioned the word “bubble” in his face)
    4. Tsur is a fantastic person. If he likes you, he will take you under his wing, and mentor you to success.
    5. ..Only downside is if you get on his bad side he wont give you the time of day when you approach him. (just don’t mention the word “bubble”)
    6. Too many mistakes in lecture notes, posts assignments two days before it’s due! This is basically a self taught course and he gives assignments that you have to teach yourself to do, basically telling us it’s “good for us” is his way of excusing himself from doing work. Can’t be fired because he has tenure, so he has no incentive to change.
    7. Tsur rocks.students give him bad ratings because they slacked and are bitter for not gettin a job. (teacher’s pet talkin)
    8. Lazy and very hard to get responses from him or set up appointments. He will blow you off every time. Plays favourites with grades – do well on the first big assignment or you’re sunk. The only reason anybody shows him any respect is because he can help set students up with jobs. (also, say the word “bubble” and you’re sunk)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 6

    pricedoutfornow Says:
    132

    “The idea is that, ‘I want to be here so badly that I’m willing to pay higher rent and make lower salary,’

    We all know this is not true. Come on. When is the last time you heard someone in Vancouver complain that their rent is too high? Anyone making a decent salary can safely say rents are not too high, it’s the freakin’ housing prices that are! My sister-in-law was contemplating a move from Calgary to Vancouver recently (she had the opportunity to make $30k more per year), she sat down and compared the rents between Vancouver and Calgary (one of her deciding factors), she found that it was quite possible to rent a similar place in Vancouver for about what they pay in Calgary (they pay $1400 for a 3 bedroom upper suite in the SW or NW of Calgary, you can surely find this in East Van). The only difference was the difference in buying a house-$1 million for your East Van tear down vs $350k for a nice, modest older Calgary home. She decided in the end not to move. I bet a whole bunch of people make the same decision all the time, since there’s no hope in hell they’ll own their own home at $1 million (and what you get for that price is pretty crappy anyway).
    Point is: rents are affordable, buying is not. How many times do we have to point this out, Tsur???

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2

    Just got an email from Onni on the Feb. 2grand opening of their development called “Riva”:

    ” GRAND OPENING SAVINGS

    $5,000 off 1 bedrooms
    $10,000 off 2 bedrooms
    $15,000 off 3 bedrooms

    1 beds from $264,900 | 2 beds from $368,900 | 3 beds from $544,900 ”

    They actually increased their 2BR price by $6k from the last email I got, but that’s before the $10k discounts. Prices for 1 & 3 BR remain the same before discount.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 4

    Re #131 VMD

    Looks like there’s a bubble in trashing Tsur.

    – Oops I just said bubble and Tsur in same sentence! Glad I don’t need to take his useless course.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    135

    You have to forgive Tsur for not having a lot of time for teaching and students and all that stuff as he’s very busy prepping for his three weekly interviews on Global.

    Promoting high-priced Vancouver real estate on TV is very hard work, as is figuring new and inventive ways to say there’s no bubble.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 4

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    136

    “They actually increased their 2BR price by $6k from the last email I got”

    Could that be because the cheapest 2BR was sold?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    137

    @pricedoutfornow

    Rents are not cheap in Vancouver! Your argument is that rents in Vancouver and Calgary are about the same, whereas real estate prices are much higher in Vancouver than Calgary, ergo rents in Vancouver are cheap. Okay, yes there is a way bigger differential between renting and owning in Vancouver compared to Calgary. Compared to the cost of owning in Vancouver, rents look cheap. But from a renter’s perspective, it is irrelevant to compare rents to the cost of owning. The cost of owning in Vancouver is insane and distorted not only by cheap credit (which also distorts Calgary real estate prices) but also by the HAM effect (which is less in Calgary). Ownership prices are insane in Vancouver, they do not reflect economic fundamentals, so it means nothing to tell a renter in Vancouver they have a great deal because the cost of owning is so inflated by HAM.

    Instead of comparing rents with the price of owning, let’s compare rents with incomes. According to Statistics Canada, median total income in 2010 in Calgary CMA was $89,490. The median total income in 2010 in Vancouver CMA was $67,090.

    http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm

    That means incomes are about 33% higher in Calgary than in Vancouver. Job opportunities, especially for working class people, are much better in Calgary than in Vancouver. So if what you say is true and rents in Calgary and Vancouver are about the same, when you considered the lower average income in Vancouver, that means renting is more expensive in Vancouver than Calgary.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 10

    RealityCheck Says:
    138

    Did you guys hear?

    Bank of Canada is keeping rates low for a long time!! Oh, the Bond market 5 year yield dropped by -3.74% after the announcement.

    Just in time for the spring market?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 6

    Re RealityCheck #138:

    Just in time to prove to everyone that low interest rates cannot stop the decline.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 4

    Many Franks Says:
    140

    A little gift for anyone bemoaning the lack of Chinese New Year bubble-reinflation hand waving written, predictably, by an industry fluffer.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    141

    Re. #140

    Apart from the fact that this piece is written by an “industry fluffer” (which really isn’t much of an argument against it) I found the following pretty weak:

    “The brisk return of China’s real-estate market means many Chinese will once again look for a safe haven to park their newly regained wealth.”

    Would anyone looking for a “safe haven” consider Vancouver real estate these days? I’m not much of a bear, but my guess is no.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    Many Franks Says:
    142

    @Ludvig von Mises: I’ll be happy to give serious consideration to articles that deserve it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    143

    Fair enough. Some articles, including this one, are not really worth bringing out the heavy artillery.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

    Groundhog Says:
    144

    Here are the 4 highlighted stories right now on http://www.theprovince.com :

    Justin Bieber – Selena dumped Biebs after drug-fuelled romp with student nurse: report

    Medical Pot – Ross’s Gold: Olympian Rebagliati’s career goes to pot with proposed medical marijuana chain

    Celebrity – Pregnant Pitt Meadows lingerie model moves in with Bourne Legacy star and his roommate

    Murder Trial – Accused gangster tells court he was too horrified to look at murder victim’s body

    …..Does anyone seriously pay for this tabloid?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 4

    New Listings 242
    Price Changes 59
    Sold Listings 60
    TI:13731

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 90 Thumb down 0

    Hibernating Renter Says:
    146

    I got a flyer in the mail today from one of the local used leasehold promoters. I’m having trouble understanding him, though. Anyone have any ideas?

    ———-
    UBC MARKET REPORT – 2012

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    147

    +138

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    148

    …….The professor cited the West Coast scenery, culture and lifestyle, mild weather – and even our hockey team….

    Tsurd; a hockey team? Really? Are you fucking kidding me? I’m supposed to be OK about having to pay $1M for a Vancouver tear down because of a hockey team? Holy fuck this dude must have a lot of money sunk in local RE to say this kind of shit in public without a laugh track.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 3

    Hibernating Renter Says:
    149

    I got a flyer in the mail today from a local used leasehold promoter. I’m having trouble understanding him, though.

    ———-
    UBC MARKET REPORT – 2012

    The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that the residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties on the region’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS) system reached 25,032 in 2012, a 22.7 percent decrease compared to the 32,387 sales in 2011 and a 18.2 per cent decrease compared to home sales in 2010. Looking at UBC in 2012, 227 listings were sold. This is a decrease of 25.6% compared to 305 listings sold in 2011.

    Call at to find out how much your property is worth!!!
    ———-

    Can anyone translate?

    a) Business is way down.
    b) In fact, it’s down even more here than the REBGV average.
    c) My car lease payment is due. I didn’t have any breakfast today.
    d) Please feel sorry for me and list with me.
    e) If you sell today, you can be a member of the exclusive “Sold at UBC in 2013″ club with only 100 others.
    f) The sooner you call me, the higher the made up property value I can tell you.
    g) I copy-and-pasted this and didn’t bother to read what it says.
    h) Please don’t look at the graphs below. Don’t notice attached being flat since 2010 and don’t notice apartments falling sharply last year.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    150

    Banks are raising rates – for those who can’t manage their debt

    Banks are raising rates – for those who can’t manage their debt

    Interest rates are going up.

    The Bank of Canada left its trendsetting overnight rate alone on Wednesday and made it clear borrowing costs won’t increase any time soon.

    But that news presents a false picture of what’s happening with the rates some people pay when they borrow money.

    Selectively and quietly, the big banks have been cranking rates higher for credit line and credit card customers with a less than sterling record in managing their debts. It’s all part of a growing trend to tie the interest rates charged on loans more closely to the client’s credit history.

    Told ya this was coming. Risk matters.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 3

    HAM Solo Says:
    151

    An interesting stock to watch for the severity of the housing downturn may be Westjet. If you pull up a chart, you’ll see it has gone absolutely parabolic in excitement … over… over what?

    With Western Canada Select oil price down in the $50′s and with every region of British Columbia in housing correction mode, it takes a peculiar kind of optimism to believe in growth of the borrow-to-consume lifestyle in these parts. But apparently, believe we do.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    HAM Solo Says:
    152

    @ patriotz

    Interesting link on the rising spreads in unsecured loans. That is quite telling. I don’t believe the banks are trying to meet profit growth targets through interest spread increases (although that could have something to do with it, and goodness knows it would be hard to grow ‘profits’ through loan growth in 2013). It probably talks more to recent credit loss experience … and that’s a good thing. Maybe early indication of tough reporting season for Canada’s subsidized loan brokerages, AKA the chartered banks.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    RaggedyRenter RaggedyRenter Says:
    153

    @Many Franks

    That article is written by the CEO of Rize Alliance, known around these parts as the builder of “the building other buildings want to have sex with”. This building is not sold out yet, so other buildings may want to have sex with it, but apparently few people want to have sex in it.

    Interesting quips in the article:
    “Typically, Chinese New Year is when Chinese investors visit Vancouver and go on a shopping spree, but last year, Vancouver real-estate developers and marketers noticed the absence of the mainland Chinese buyer, a telltale sign that China’s policy was working and that the overall economy was slowing down.”
    The Chinese buyer hype was so strong last year and lasted well into Summer, it was frequently cited in all the condo launches as well as prestigious area sales. However he actually said the insiders already noticed the absence of Chinese buyers on Chinese New Year. So all the locals (ethnic Chinese or not) who rushed into the market last year fearing HAM invasion were actually duped.

    If you want to map Vancouver housing price, try to map Vancouver West and Richmond HPI with this:
    Xi Jinping de facto appointment as successor to Hu Jintao (end of 2010)
    Japan tsunami (March 2011)
    Bo Xilai capture as the “fall guy” (March 2012)

    Between that time there are a lot of anxiety over the fallout and if it’s going to be business as usual. Once the dust settled there’s no need to park your money out. Unless Xi Jinping starts arresting people on corruption charge.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    154

    the trends are going in the right direction.

    listings growing at a decent rate.

    sales slow.

    Toronto announcing a shocking drop in sales, this will tighten lending at the banks even more (typical knee jerk reaction, after the horse has left the barn).

    but….i can’t help but to hope that we see a SHOCKING surge in listings…come on…anyways, I can hope.

    YVR, thanks for your comments on average prices. Was not what I was hoping. That said, I think there is little doubt that actual average prices continue to weaken.

    I want a shocking drop, one that rips the pants off of people.

    Bring it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 23 Thumb down 9

    Last 5 business days: 2013 vs 2012
    Sales: 311 vs 445 (-30% YoY)
    Seems like we’re back on track with the YoY sales declines.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 42 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    156

    14k party by Friday

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 5

    Aleksey Says:
    157

    Getting 500 errors all the time. DOS attack from Belarus? =)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 2

    YLTNboomerang Says:
    158

    Re: Rize

    OMG, thes guys are f@cking idiots! I love the internal bedroom concept…basically, we would push it to the corner but that’s illegal even if nobody ever sleeps in our flipper targeted units that will remain empty.

    Sorry, the whole “Rize Labs” sections pisses me off more than Hipsters.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    YLTNboomerang Says:
    159

    Re: Rize

    OMG, thes guys are f@cking idiots! I love the internal bedroom concept…basically, we would push it to the corner but that’s illegal even if nobody ever sleeps in our flipper targeted units that will remain empty.

    Sorry, the whole “Rize Labs” section pisses me off more than Hipsters.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

    JojoMalone Says:
    160

    Burbs Boy – no worries. I posted it as an fyi and to continue the conversation. Which it did. Appreciate your perspective.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    VultureBoy Says:
    161

    “An interesting stock to watch for the severity of the housing downturn may be Westjet. If you pull up a chart, you’ll see it has gone absolutely parabolic in excitement … over… over what?”

    FYI: earnings way up, load factor up, more planes, code sharing, better pricing power, less undercutting AC. No mystery here.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

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