Yes We Have No Bubble Trouble.

For all of you worried about a ‘housing bubble’ just stop and read this article:

No Housing Bubble Trouble.

At the national level, what could possibly kick national home prices downstairs? There is nothing to suggest massive job loss ahead or a huge oversupply of new homes. That leaves only the dubious assumption of a big increase in mortgage interest rates as the trigger for any nationwide decline in home prices. But national housing prices did not fall in the past when mortgage rates rose to twice their current level.

Oh, wait.. Sorry that’s from the Washington Times in 2005 and refers to the US market.

This is the one I meant to point to:

No Bubble, No Trouble.

A housing slowdown in Toronto and Vancouver could affect consumer confidence in regions with strong economic fundamentals like Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax, adds Don Campbell, best-selling author of Real Investing in Canada. But rather than a sharp decline, you’re more likely to see slower rates of price appreciation and home sales, says McKellar. “Overall the economy of Canada compared to other countries is still doing very well,” he says. “Housing markets are a function of the economy. Not the other way around.”

Hat-tip to Patriotz and Many Franks for the article links.

 

 

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Sherry C
Guest

It’s a balloon, d**n it!

CanuckDownUnder
Member

What a coincidence, there’s also no bubble in Australia. Don’t even get me started about fundamental nonsense like price/income ratios! It turns out our local real estate pimp isn’t too fond of the latest Demographia survey:

‘Dr Wilson, the senior economist at the Fairfax-owned Australian Property Monitors, questioned the validity of the survey by making world comparisons. “You may as well be comparing the Australian housing market to the one on Jupiter, because they are different animals,” he said.’

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/economist-tears-roof-off-affordability-study-20130121-2d2e4.html

patriotz
Member

And right on cue:

Is Canada talking itself into a housing crisis?

Little was heard of housing bubbles in Canada up to about a year ago. Now, predictions of crashes are on the front cover of Maclean’s and other publications. One might wonder if we are talking ourselves into a housing miasma, even though the fundamentals don’t point to one.

Don’t worry, be happy and buy a house. Now.

For more RE bull**** from the same author, google “LARRY MACDONALD Globe and Mail”

Q
Guest

The perils of living in a condo tower:

“Authorities are investigating after a pipe was opened in the 35th-floor stairwell of a Yaletown highrise Monday evening, sending water cascading down the stairs to the ground floor.

“The water made its way down into every single hallway,” said Capt. Gabe Roder of Vancouver Fire and Rescue Services. “How much of it went into the suites? I can’t tell you that.”

He said it looks like someone deliberately opened the standpipe system used by firefighters to attack fires.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Mischief+suspected+massive+water+leak+Yaletown+highrise/7851859/story.html

vancouverguy
Guest

A little more lipstick for the Pigg in Toronto.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1318272–downtown-condo-market-is-showing-strange-signs-of-life

This article makes me want to vomit.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
“Housing markets are a function of the economy. Not the other way around.” Maybe this would apply in normal circumstances, but the past ten years have been anything but normal. People have been encouraged to take on more and more debt through low interest rates, zero down mortgages, lengthy amortizations, CMHC insurance to anyone with a pulse, etc etc. In this case I would say that the economy has ONLY been performing well BECAUSE of housing-without the government stepping in in 2008/2009 where would housing be today? It definitely would not have soared to new highs, that’s for sure. This… Read more »
Q
Guest
Some interesting statistics to consider in today’s Globe and Mail: -According to a Re/MAX survey, 71% of homebuyers in BC believe that real estate prices will stay flat or increase in 2013 -According to the same survey, BC homebuyers are the “least bullish” in Canada while Ontario homebuyers are the most bullish -According to an Angus Reid survey of 1100 people who plan to buy real estate within the next two years, 80% believe prices will stay flat or increase Those are some stunning statistics. It shows that most people really do not see the bubble correcting/crashing in 2013. The… Read more »
Groundhog
Guest

“Housing markets are a function of the economy. Not the other way around.”

They haven’t updated their economic models in a decade or so.

Anonymous
Guest

Yeah, I kind of thought the whole argument against juicing the re market and creating this bubble is this:

“Housing markets should be a function of the economy. Not the other way around.”

painted turtle
Guest

@Q
Remember: the survey was made by Remax. This is like Monsento saying GMOs are good for the environment.

Many Franks
Guest

Demographia’s back with another international housing affordability report.

The 4.7 figure is a deterioration from last year, when the Canadian figure was 4.5.

Demographia says that figure would have been higher were it not for a slowdown in Vancouver, with its “grossly overvalued market” resulting in a median multiple score drop from 10.6 to 9.5.
CHART The slow fall of Canada’s mortgage lending rates

However, Vancouver’s score was still high enough to rank it second overall on the list, behind Hong Kong. Sydney, Australia, was third internationally.

Q
Guest

@Painted Turtle

Yes, the survey is by Re/MAX. Ironically, I don’t think those stats make a very good argument for the bulls. I take it as a bearish signal that the majority of potential purchasers still don’t see a correction on the horizon. Their motivation to purchase is likely capital appreciation and once they start noticing depreciation many will opt not to buy–putting further downward pressure on prices.

lazyrenter
Guest

Demographia… from the Heritage Foundation to your eyes.
I am not arguing with the numbers, nothing wrong with median/median. But the editorializing was tiring. Regulations are Bad! Housing would be cheap if the gubmint just let us pave *everything*. No mention of low interest rates as a cause, and strange gyrations to argue that areas with fewer regulations didn’t have a bubble. And of course, somehow, my tax dollars to pave new highways and run water/sewer to the exurbs – no thank you.

Aleksey
Guest

Am I the only one who think of Re/Max logo everytime they mention housing bubble?

Left already living in San Diego
Guest
Left already living in San Diego

I cant resist saying this,
26 degree today here… http://ca.weather.yahoo.com/

Are you enjoying skiing, golfing and sailing on the best place on earth all at the same day of course?

gokou3
Guest

“-According to an Angus Reid survey of 1100 people who plan to buy real estate within the next two years, 80% believe prices will stay flat or increase”

I think by definition, those who plan to buy RE wouldn’t be too bearish. And ya, if you still don’t get it, none of you bears would be in this 1100 sample 😀 Nice way for re/max to screen out all the undesirable stats.

gokou3
Guest

Even the bears must agree this house is cheap — if it sells at listing price:

http://www.shuchatgroup.com/Properties.php/Details/84

😀

Groundhog
Guest

@gokou3

Maybe a sign of whats to come for Richmond condos.

gah
Guest

“-According to an Angus Reid survey of 1100 people who plan to buy real estate within the next two years, 80% believe prices will stay flat or increase”

And according to the same survey, 100% of people who plan on buying stocks in the next year or two expect those stock prices to be flat or increase.

Um yeah, because if I expected the price to decrease I WOULDN’T BUY IT!

Vote Down The Facts
Guest

“And according to the same survey, 100% of people who plan on buying stocks in the next year or two expect those stock prices to be flat or increase.”

If a stock pays a decent dividend I don’t care if the price stays flat.

Ludvig von Mises
Guest

“Are you enjoying skiing, golfing and sailing on the best place on earth all at the same day of course?”

I had a great weekend skiing the North Shore mountains with my kids, and plan to go again after work tonight, since it is practically in my backyard. How’s the skiing down in San Diego?

RaggedyRenter
Member

You may laugh at pumpers’ attempts to paint the picture as rosy and the prices are flat, but you can’t deny that it’s working.

/dev/null
Member
Question for the group: the Dec 2012 official stats package states that for North Van SFH the 3-year and 5-year change % are both 5.5%. The current benchmark is $908k and the index is 145. So the prices are 5.5% above Dec 2007 but then the index also suggests that prices are 45% above Jan 2005. So are these both right? A big jump from early 2005 to ~2008 but we’re almost back to 2007 pricing? Our landlords are booting us out of the house we’ve been in for 5 years. (She’s divorcing him and booted him out, and we’re… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
GlobalTV posted a story on Facebook about how Vancouver was the 2nd least affordable city in the world. Here are some of the brilliant comments From Crystal Walshe, a realtor: “I’m a realtor, and no – it’s not “good” for me, whats good for me is a steady business in a balanced market, where people can buy confidently. But let’s put this in perspective, Vancouver is landlocked and driven by basic supply and demand. Look at New York! It’s simply a matter of sacrificing affordability for lifestyle. Will there come a time that this will balance out, probably not…there are… Read more »
RFM
Guest

Will the Transition from HST to GST Distort the Timing of Real Estate Closings this Spring?

Please see my new posting: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Will-the-Transition-from-HST-to-GST-Distort-the-Timing-of-Real-Estate-Closings

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