Crumbling real estate markets in BC

Ben Rabidoux over at The Economic Analyst has a post focusing on the falling markets in Vancouver and Victoria.

As VHB points out the last two years saw 2 & 3 days in February with daily sales under 100. We’re now 5 sales days in and we’ve seen 3 sales days under 100.

Sales better pick up in the remaining 15 business days or the market is at risk of having a worse february that 2009, the worst year in recent memory.

We’re not hearing much about it in the local media, but the real estate market in Vancouver is seeing rising listings, sagging sales and dropping prices.

Over at Vancouver Peak 604x points out the lack of reasonable reporting on this topic in the local media and brings up the topic of conflict of interest.

He’s put together a form letter with contact info for the broadcast standards council. Here’s an excerpt:

We all remember the false and misleading behaviour of the news media during the technology “bubble” of the late 1990s and early 2000s. In both the US and Canada many people lost substantial sums of money due to the cheerleading of certain media outlets. After the dust settled it was found that many of these media outlets and “economic correspondents” had conflicting interests – owning the stock of companies they were actively reporting on and actively pumping.
The same is happening today in Canada with news reporting of the current real estate market. Many reporters and news organizations, most notably Vancouver’s branch of Global TV (CTV network), are delivering hyped up media and false/misleading reports on the status of the real estate market in BC. I believe this is also true for CTV’s Toronto reporting. A defining characteristics of such coverage is (i) one-sided reporting (i.e. “prices are about to take off”), and (ii) interviews with real estate agents and staff of real estate companies who have a clear conflict of interest in the current market. The behaviour goes beyond sensationalist headlines designed to boost circulation and sell ads – these news correspondents appear to be actively pumping the market for personal gain.

Read the full post here.

Total days 19 Days elapsed so far 5 Weekends / holidays 2 Days missing 0 Days remaining 14 7 Day Moving Average: Sales 85 7 Day Moving Average: Listings 286 SALES Sales so far 426 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1193 Projected month end total 1619 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 1428 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 3998 Projected month end total 5426 Sell-list so far 29.8% Projected month-end sell-list 29.8% MONTHS OF INVENTORY Inventory as of Feb 7th, 2013 14527 MoI at this sales pace 8.97

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joemanhas

10 years ago

Have you heard the old expression Buy Low sell high? For those that think we’ve hit the bottom or soon to hit the bottom the time to buy is now.. If less people are buying you can get great deals now.. http://BCHomez.com

Anonymous

2013 will be a disastrous year for vancouver RE . I left vancouver in 2000 and sold my yaletown condo 777sq for 200k. Miami is a better city trust me, sunshine and beach. I don’t know why people wanna stay in vancouver .

4444 4444 4444 4444

@raggedy:

No need to strain brain with doubt.

Curse was set in motion on 4th day of 4th month.

We will hit bottom in 44 months.

Full recovery not for 44 years.

Aleksey

@RaggedyRenter

Thank you! This blog is so much beyond RE for me.
Never heard of this play before =)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMz1-Kgz_DI

RaggedyRenter

It’s a little crazy that a western cosmopolitan city depends on a Hail Mary from Beijing to save the housing market. We have smart people from all over the world here and we are waiting for a Chinese Godot to come and save the market. But he’s right though, CNY will be the bellwether of the market. Emotion is running high on both side of the aisle. Posts on anything anti-China (or anti-Chinese) are highly upvoted here. A bit unnerving. A friend bought a house last year, he overbid because he’s afraid Godot would outbid him. He said “buying a house nowadays is tricky. You have to buy a house the Chinese will want to buy eventually. I almost bought a house but it has an outdoor pool. That’s not popular among Chinese buyers.” These are common conversation among people… Read more »

At this rate, inventory will reach 425,000 by July, 2017. Can’t wait!!!

Vote Down The Facts

I thought you guys liked predictions?!

“Was successful because he was lucky, not because he was smart.”
so you are so smart you could not secure housing and employment over the past five years. Please remind the public how many time you had to change jobs and moved from one city to the next.

Vote down those facts, people! The current rate of inventory increase won’t sustain itself until July, same as it didn’t last year. I recall lots of garbage extrapolations back then, too.

b5baxter, inventory won’t reach 25000 this year – or next.

rp1

#31 “Personally, I would love to see Vancouver go Mad Max”

+1 Lululemon combat gear.

b5baxter

inventory graph:
http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Inventory-Graphs?pid=401#pid401

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:
73
At this rate we would reach 15,000 in 8 days (Feb-15-13)
At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 77 days (Apr-25-13)
and 25,000 by July 2, 2013
Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

mac

… or GOLDEN DAWN. Haha. What a joke this topic is.

I’m not allowed to talk about Mainland Chinese money moving to YVR without being voted down but the guy who wants to terrorize foreigners by having squatters take over their property is voted up. Too funny. And of course these squatters amount to targeted action with the blessings of a benignly racist government that would condone their actions by being slow to act out against vandalism or to restore these buyers’ rights. But it’s OK because it targets what? Wealth? Or foreigners? Or wealthy foreigners. It’s hard to guess the greatest evil here. As long as you don’t guess envy… you get voted up.

“Adverse possession would only apply to real estate owned by non-Canadian citizens. I believe this could be done with a simple legislative change by the BC Government in Victoria. I would vote for any party advocating this policy.”

Any party putting forward such a proposal would be so batshit crazy that the rest of their policies would surely be pure comedy gold.

YEAH! THEY’D BE CALLED THE NATIONAL FRONT.

jesse

djb I think it’s when subjects are removed.

Loon

Ooh 92 sales! Things are happening. Phones are ringing …or some sh!t.

Best place on meth

+123

Um the daily inventory growth is high, mostly because of low sales and close to no expiries. I’m getting worried… vicariously

DJB

Can someone educate me on when a house is considered sold for the daily stats.

Is it when a deal is accepted?
Conditions are lifted?
Or when title is transferred?

Thanks

Bo Xilai

From the Vancouver Sun article on CNY and Rich Chinese Buying Vancouver Real Estate. “To me, (Chinese buyers) are a leading indicator,” McNeil said. “What I mean is, when Chinese buyers are active, it is a little bit of a bellwether (for the overall market), and the Chinese are active.” Buyers are taking their time, McNeil said, but for developments in good locations with “fair values, prices aren’t coming off and are selling very well.” He added that locations with established neighbourhoods, good schools and proximity to rapid transit are popular. ————————— Yeah, I can see wealthy Mainland Chinese buyers consider proximity to rapid transit as being SUPER important to their buying decision. Why take the Bentley when you can ride the Canada Line? Maybe Mr. MacNeil is trying to get his real audience – brokeass first time home buyers… Read more »

Bull! Bull! Bull!

@Naked Official #9000

You broke character. Which is good… Your shtick is stale.

Democrass

If you are fan of stealing unoccupied houses, why not just go break their windows and vandalize them. Or is that not criminal enough?

Condopocalypse

VHB

Vancouver Condo Info

Crumbling real estate markets in BC

Bubble? What Bubble?