FFFA! Lunar! Family! Pricey! Inventory!

It’s that time of the week again, Friday Free-for-all time! lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-Family day will destroy small businesses
-Updated inventory graph
-Wishy washy wishes for Lunar uptick
-Vancouver pricier than ‘swanky’ NY & LA
-City starts tracking problem rentals
-Here’s the searchable database
-RRSPs to the rescue
-Sex sells
-The wealthy love riding buses

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

268 Responses to “FFFA! Lunar! Family! Pricey! Inventory!”

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    Had a nice talk with a doctor (department head) tonight. He moved here from Chicago where he’s still paying the mortgage on an underwater property. He looks at the prices here and he can see that it doesn’t add up. He was wondering when the tipping point would come for Vancouver. In any case, he has no intention of buying here for now. These things are obvious when viewed from the outside.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 59 Thumb down 19

    Naked Official #9000 Says:
    2

    but why would one want to be on the outside?

    then you wouldn’t be owning real estate in vancouver like a winner

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 23

    Anonymous Says:
    3

    I went to the store yesterday to buy a few things. The total price for my purchases was $19.47 and I paid with a twenty dollar bill. The screen on the til said my change was supposed to be 53 cents. The small independent business owner operating the til gave me only 50 cents change. Now that pennies are out of circulation, 53 cents should be rounded UP to 55 cents, not down to 50 cents. This was actually my very first cash transaction since pennies were taken out of circulation and already I was being ripped off by someone not rounding properly. I don’t actually care about the five cents just because it was the first time it was happening. So I said, you know you are supposed to round that up to 55 cents so you owe me a nickel. Without hesitation or even saying a word, she opened the til and gave me the nickel. I got the sense she knew exactly what she was doing. It wasn’t an innocent mistake. She knew that 53 cents change on the screen means round up to 55 cents to give to the customer. She was just trying to save a nickel and hoping I wouldn’t say anything.

    I expect this to be the new norm. A lot of the smaller independent businesses (that I like to support) aren’t updating their tills like shoppers drug mart did where all the prices end in five cent increments. When giving back change, threes are going to be incorrectly rounded down and most businesses will count on the customer not understanding or not wanting to appear cheap enough to fight over a nickel. I don’t want to put up a fight every time I am at the til so this strategy will probably work. But I just had to insist on the correct rounding for the first time before assuming my usual sucker-rip-me-off-cause-I-am-Canadian stance.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 34 Thumb down 18

    CanuckDownUnder Says:
    4

    Sydney resale prices are now at a new all-time high according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics with the last quarter of 2012 passing the former mark set in the second quarter of 2010.

    In that time the cash rate has gone from 4.50 per cent to 3.00 per cent which matches the all-time low “emergency” rate set by the Reserve Bank. Even with all this juice prices just seem to be wobbling on a shaky plateau and things will get ugly in a hurry if rates have to go up for any reason.

    On that note, Happy Chinese New Year! Here’s a conveniently themed property piece for your reading pleasure.

    “Ma settled in Australia in 1989 and says that of the ERA buyers who are of Chinese heritage, 92 per cent have permanent residence or citizenship, with the rest living overseas.

    ‘Australia has a good, stable economy to invest in, has better weather than Canada … and this is a very good development,’ he says.”

    http://smh.domain.com.au/home-investor-centre/local-buyers-join-the-chinese-treasure-hunt-20130207-2dzep.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Many Franks Says:
    5

    Another market tries to distance itself from Vancouver — Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows this time. Apparently Cam Muir’s blithe optimism just isn’t rosy enough for these two realtors.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    Keeping An Eye On The Pimps Says:
    6

    Cam and Tsur, I know you two turds are always looking for pitches to present as sound and plausible economic theories to Global TV, and Jerry Springer Show followers.

    In the spirit of giving during the season of Chinese New Year, I formulated a new theory and pitch for you to guys to pull out of your anuses when you are called upon by the local media RE Pumpers to give your unbiased “expert” opinion, and it goes something along these lines.

    Sales are low because supply is dwindling- we have simply run out of land, and the Ultra-Rich Asians are buying at much higher prices than what the official numbers show on documents, as most of the price paid is cash under the table to avoid transfer taxes etc. and also to avoid public attention.

    I need not to elaborate further, you two can sprinkle the above with some key words for more punch, you know…… best place on earth etc.

    And perhaps arrange for a satellite interview with Deb Hope and you two jesters in the forefront with Cathay Pacific Airplanes in the background.

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    Anonymous Says:
    7

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    8

    @Anonymous #7

    “Man are you cheap. I would be happy I don’t have to carry those 3 pennies. The poor store owner is probably barely making minimum wage. Just pay with a debit card or credit card if you are worried about 3 pennies.”

    You are totally missing the point. It is not about me caring about the five cents, it’s the principle. We’ve been told by the government that the end of the penny is not inflationary. But cash transactions at the til are also social interactions. There is social pressure for me in that position to not want to appear cheap which makes it harder for someone to insist on the correct rounding. If businesses consistently do the rounding incorrectly and consistently err in the business’ favour then that is inflationary. Many customers in this store actually do make minimum wage as it is not in an especially wealthy part of town. Many customers are probably on welfare or seniors pensions. Every nickel counts in this day and age for much of the downtrodden, increasingly impoverished public. The inflationary effect of this mistake is magnified for smaller purchases. Let’s say I am at the corner store and I am buying a chocolate bar or some candy and the total with tax is $1.47 and I pay with a toonie. My change should be 53 cents but they gave me back 50 cents instead, hoping I won’t say anything. That adds 3 cents to the price, which works out to 2% inflation.

    “After taxes are applied you will still end up with pennies in change. You are not only cheap but not too bright.”

    You obviously have not been to Shoppers Drug Mart recently. I can see how my comment could be confusing so let me clarify. At Shoppers Drug Mart the tils have been re-programmed to tell the final price with tax in five-cent increments and it tells the change to the cashier in five-cent increments. So there is no issue with a cashier having to decide whether to round up or down because the til does that for them. But the smaller businesses haven’t done this to their tils so tils still have screens that give change ending in 2,3,4 so a cashier has to be smart/honest enough to round up or down.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 9

    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    9

    “But the smaller businesses haven’t done this to their tils so tils still have screens that give change ending in 2,3,4 so a cashier has to be smart/honest enough to round up or down.”

    It’s actually not just 2,3,4 endings, it’s 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9 endings. At Shoppers Drug Mart, the tils only give 0,5 endings.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

    Couldn’t the retailer legally round the price, $19.47 to $19.50?
    Then $0.50 cents would be the correct change.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 3 Thumb down 9

    Patiently Waiting Says:
    11

    “Employment in British Columbia fell by 16,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was 6.3%. With this decline, employment in the province returned to a level similar to that of 12 months earlier.”

    http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/130208/dq130208a-eng.htm

    BTW my wife’s specialist doctor is moving to Alberta (originally from South Asia). While he didn’t mention housing prices specifically, he told her he didn’t like the pace and quality of life in Vancouver.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    12

    TPFKAA

    “Couldn’t the retailer legally round the price, $19.47 to $19.50?
    Then $0.50 cents would be the correct change.”

    No. $19.47 rounds to $19.45 not $19.50.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 4

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    13

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    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    14

    Haha, sorry 55c is correct – not 50.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    15

    “My change should be 53 cents but they gave me back 50 cents instead, hoping I won’t say anything. That adds 3 cents to the price, which works out to 2% inflation.”

    LOL I just spit my coffee on my computer screen. I doubt 3 cents on cash chocolate bar purchases in small grocery stores are going to impact inflation. If you were worried about 3 cents then you shouldn’t be shopping in these stores anyway because they are generally already more expensive.

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    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    16

    If the after-tax price ends in 1,2,6,7 you round down.

    If the after-tax price ends in 3,4,8,9 you round up.

    Same principle applies for screens that are displaying change.

    11 and 12 cents become 10 cents

    13 and 14 cents become 15 cents

    15 cents obviously stays the same

    16 and 17 cents become 15 cents

    18 and 19 cents become 20 cents

    20 cents obviously stays the same

    And it goes on from there…21 cents is 20 cents

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 6

    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    17

    What I just described in Comment #15–the tils at Shoppers Drug Mart do that automatically. But in the places that haven’t changes their tils (so probably most businesses), the cashiers have to think for themselves and round it for themselves and be honest about the rounding.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 5

    Anonymous Says:
    18

    “Couldn’t the retailer legally round the price, $19.47 to $19.50?”

    Of course they can do what ever they want. As a consumer you have a choice to shop where ever you want. Personally I would rather give the small store 3 cents rather than pay 5 cents per bag like at many larger stores. I heard Home Depot is rounding everything down. So $1.54 = $1.50 for cash. Each store can have their own policy just like they can price the items how ever they want.

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    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    19

    I’ve not been to Shoppers yet – do they tills only perform the rounding for cash transactions?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 3

    This is so reminiscent of the US housing bubble Greenspan the Maestro (for those of you too young to know this Greenspan was very popular in his day) and Carney the Rock Star, both leaving after creating housing bubbles. We are watching the bubble deflate in slow motion very similar to the US bubble and the media still says its different here it’s Canada!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    21

    @Anonymous #17

    “Of course they can do what ever they want…I heard Home Depot is rounding everything down. So $1.54 = $1.50 for cash.”

    Theoretically, I suppose that is correct and I am shocked to hear that about Home Depot. The Canadian Mint has put out guidelines for rounding that is consistent with what I just spelled out in comment #15

    http://www.mint.ca/store/template/default/pennyinfo.html#.URUr-_KvjGA

    According to Canadian Mint and Government of Canada, the guideline is you round down $1.01 and $1.02 to $1.00 and $1.06 and $1.07 becomes $1.05. You round up $1.03 and $1.04 to $1.05 and also round up $1.08 and $1.09 and $1.10

    That is basically the same thing I said in comment #15. But comment #15 makes more sense in my brain as someone who has worked with cash.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 4 Thumb down 8

    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    22

    @Vote Down the Facts:

    I didn’t really notice about what happened for people paying with credit or debit but I think the tils at Shoppers Drug Mart probably would have rounded for them too. It seemed like each individual item was being rounded as it came up on the screen as the cashier scanned it. I don’t know if there was an option to take off the rounding at the end for someone paying with credit/debit.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 6

    Anonymous Says:
    23

    Penny Pincher: “Theoretically, I suppose that is correct and I am shocked to hear that about Home Depot.”

    It is good policy because penny pinchers like you might shop there thinking they will save 3 cents. It also will encourage people to use cash and will save the retailer credit card fees. I doubt it will amount to much for Home Depot where purchases are usually large and credit cards are more common.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 5

    RealityCheck Says:
    24

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    Ben Rabidoux Says:
    25

    If there’s one thing to give home sellers in Vancouver some sort of comfort, it may be that Montreal has just stolen the crown as the ugliest Canadian metro from a supply/demand perspective:

    http://theeconomicanalyst.com/content/revisiting-important-post-impending-construction-slowdown-and-montreal-sales-declines

    The MOI chart is particularly scary.

    But hey, in terms of absolute dead air underneath current prices, Vancouver remains the undisputed king.

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    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    26

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    Bag it and tag it Says:
    27

    Holy crap! Enough with the penny talk. Do we really need a discussion on how to round? I’m pretty sure we covered that in grade 2.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 48 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    28

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    taylor192 Says:
    29

    Penny wise, pound foolish is correct today.

    Who pays with cash anymore? I have a no-annual-fee dividend Visa that I put absolutely everything on, even if its $1. Why worry about 3 pennies on $20 when you could be getting 2 dimes (1%) back.

    The anonymous posts make me laugh at how stupid they are most days, today I cried.

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    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    30

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    Anonymous Says:
    31

    penny lover et al,
    piss off already with your penny talk.
    go find a blog dedicated to this issue!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 22 Thumb down 7

    Best place on meth Says:
    32

    If I could interrupt the discussion about pennies for a moment to mention the appalling jobs numbers out today.

    BC lost 16,000 jobs in January, the equivalent of the US losing 1.2 million jobs in a single month.

    http://www.news1130.com/2013/02/08/jobs-numbers-down-in-bc/

    Time for the BC Libs to put out another ad showing how strong our economy is.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 53 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    33

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    Short'em High Says:
    34

    Some pennies for you. Housing starts and employment change were announced today.

    http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CADUSD=X&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Move along. Nothing to see here…

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    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    35

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    @ BPOM

    “BC lost 16,000 jobs in January, the equivalent of the US losing 1.2 million jobs in a single month.”

    These stats don’t even include the thousands of realtors making no sales that are functionally unemployed.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 57 Thumb down 1

    Patiently Waiting Says:
    37

    “BC lost 16,000 jobs in January”

    I was in the Lougheed Mall; counted at least ten vacant storefronts. There’s a little over a hundred storefronts in the mall so that seems like a high percentage.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 1

    A couple of views 1 week into the month.

    1.) Every person who did not sell in Van West last year seems to be hitting the list button this week. We are on pace for close to 500 new listings in one month of Van West – – this is by far a record.

    2.) Detached listings are up more than attached and sales are down more than attached. We are on pace for 10+ MOI on detached for Feb – – yeah – Mr. Muir – sellers don’t have to sell eh??

    3.) Sorry to be a broken record but – – Richmond – Dead. Forecasting close to 1,000 listings at month end already and 18 MOI. Must be fun . .

    4.) Van East attached – pretty balanced – still. Projecting 5 MOI this month which is still up from 4 last year.

    5.) Biggest loser? West Vancouver. Forecasting 18 MOI this year for Feb compared to 6 last year. North Van at 6 compared to 2.5 last year. North Van is one of the true middle class (low offshore spec) areas left. 2.6 MOI last year was still very very tight – – at 6 – it’s not bad but really slow for spring. Generally North Van just suffers from low amounts of spec sales so generally not very high inventory.

    6.) Burnaby? I’m not joking but last year it was MOI of 3 in Feb and this year we are looking at 12. Oh well – – sorry if you’re trying to sell in Burnaby.

    7.) Finally- Van West – – Should end up with 9.5 MOI. LAst year, when we thought things were pretty soft already – it was 4.5 (a high amount for FEb). . .

    If we end Feb with less than 1700 sales – the HPI will be flat to only modestly down (a big achivement for Feb). . .

    Using REBGV numbers – I currently forecast over 15K for Feb inventory. Compares with 14K last year. Note that this excludes bare land and multi-unit properties (which PaulB includes).

    As a trend – – Feb is worse than Jan on a seasonally adj basis.

    However- as you all know – – people just don’t have to sell – – and – – as we all know – – People never have to buy.

    Happy weekend!!!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 87 Thumb down 0

    bullwhip29 Says:
    39

    Why family Day on Feb 11th? Hmm…now it all makes sense.
    Gung Hay Fat Choy, Christy!

    http://farm8.static.flickr.com/7051/6773783762_525bc006fd.jpg

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 6

    bullwhip29 Says:
    40

    @ Patiently Waiting February 8th, 2013 at 11:09 am

    If you want to see what quiet looks like, take a stroll down Robson St.

    I’m quite sure the gov’t will attribute these job losses to temp/part timers leaving the workforce post Xmas and will simply disregard the data. Expect the opposite to occur once university classes wind down in April. Naturally, the govt will use that opportunity to tout the BC Job Plan and pat itself on the back.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    oneangryslav2 Says:
    41

    @24: And that dead air will soon be littered with the corpses of housing bulls–some virgins, some promiscuous boomers.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    42

    “he has no intention of buying here for now”

    do you think this doctor guy has any more money to spare after this “Chicago where he’s still paying the mortgage on an underwater property”.

    he would be lucky to afford KD.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3

    Oh right. Nearest 5 not ten. D’oh.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 4

    I’m so used to rounding to ten. Sig figs in science… There is a proposal in the works to eliminate the quarter and the nickel and have everything in dime increments.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 4

    yvr2zrh: A quick tack-on regarding Strathcona in East Van.

    Listings in this neighbourhood are dead, dead, dead. There’s a grand total of 8 active listings between Main and Glen (east-west), and between Hastings and Prior (north-south). Last year, there were several times this many listings, and I know for a fact that the bulk of them haven’t sold.

    Among the unlisted stock are something like four spec-built properties “coming soon” (618-620 Prior St) or completed and empty (see a stale Strathcona Gateway listing), each with a couple of detached dwellings. The only spec-build listed, right now, is the humbly named “crawford row“. There are more spec-builds under construction on Union. There are yet others (example) that have already been converted to rentals but which may resurrect themselves someday.

    All of this adds up to a pretty unavoidable listing boom, which seems due to start any day now. I’m mostly picking on new properties here; maybe they’re waiting for the HST transition rules to take effect. Must make for an uncomfortable relationship with the accountant.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    47

    @TPFKAA:

    Don’t worry about the rounding mistake. I am sorry. I didn’t mean to embarrass you.

    And I absolutely hate the idea of getting rid of nickels and quarters. But you probably don’t want to get me started on that one because the rest of the bloggers here have probably been tortured enough with this talk.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 5

    Is it just me or is the market worsening accelerating? It was a drip before; seems like a trickle now… next it will be a stream… and then apocalyptic flood of listings and MOI growth. Maybe the herd is finally spooked into stampeding!!

    If not, and we see another year like 2012 of a limp arc on the inventory curve, it might just depress me into getting my “serf” class marker tattoo and not watching the market anymore. I will be explaining to the grandkids why they are serf-class “because grandpa was born two years after the ‘Great Wealth Cutoff’.”

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 2

    Here is comparable week in February 2011:

    date sales list ratio
    07-Feb	93	283	32.9%
    08-Feb	182	227	80.2%
    09-Feb	204	326	62.6%
    10-Feb	93	282	33.0%
    11-Feb	121	281	43.1%
    

    and February 2012

    date sales listings ratio
    06-Feb	113	325	34.8%
    07-Feb	140	281	49.8%
    08-Feb	127	265	47.9%
    09-Feb	85	229	37.1%
    10-Feb	94	234	40.2%
    

    And the past few days in 2013:

    date sales listings ratio
    04-Feb	117	331	35.3%
    05-Feb	72	280	25.7%
    06-Feb	67	267	25.1%
    07-Feb	92	248	37.1%
    

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 0

    Clockbike Clockbike Says:
    50

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    Short'em High Says:
    51

    TPFKAA Says:
    February 8th, 2013 at 11:39 am

    I’m so used to rounding to ten. Sig figs in science… There is a proposal in the works to eliminate the quarter and the nickel and have everything in dime increments.

    Right on! Lower interest rates too and round to the nearest dollar! Then, when that doesn’t work, we should try negative interest rates where the bank pays you take the money off their hands!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    52

    @Clockbike

    “You have it backwards, poor people generally have credit and debit cards and as a result of having easy access to their money: spend themselves into poverty.”

    You are so wrong. I don’t want to respond to this but I just have to. I’ve lived poverty my entire life from the time I was a child raised by my single mother on welfare. I know a thing or two about how the poor in Canada live–and I mean the truly poor.

    The truly poor do not have credit cards, by and large. Yes, they have debit cards. But poor people generally do transactions in cash. It’s much easier to control your spending when you’re using cash as opposed to a debit card. When you’re poor, you get your welfare cheque or your GST cheque and you go to a bank and you cash it there and you walk out with cash. And the bank has to give it to you even if you don’t have an account there. And many poor people actually don’t have bank accounts so that is quite common.

    The very poor generally do not have credit cards. It’s pretty hard to get approved for a visa card when you’re on welfare!!! Most poor people have bad credit from earlier in their lives and wouldn’t qualify for a credit card anyways.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 43 Thumb down 5

    what I’m seeing?

    well in the last 3 weeks the two apartment buildings kitty corner to the one that i rent in have both put up 2 for sale signs. All 4 signs are full size signs on apartment sized wooden posts (instead of those smaller realtor signs that are supposed to hang off each other).

    It’s awesome, it makes it all look so much more desperate,the 4 signs REALLY stand out on the corner, couldn’t be happier!

    oh, and an apartment in my strata building, that is for rent on craigslist, still hasn’t been scooped up, and it’s been listed since Jan 27th, not that long but these places usually get rented immediately, awesome location a block off the best part of 4th. It’s an obvious change noted by the owners!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 1

    LazyCanadian Says:
    54

    I live in the new Wesbrook village on UBC campus and finally stopped by the Wesbrook Welcome Center. They have a map of all current and planned development, I appologize for the camera phone quality. http://i.imgur.com/NTRcsdX.jpg The grey ones have been approved but haven’t been started, apparently they should all be completed in 10-15 years. That’s a rate of .67 – 1 highrises and 2 – 3 lowrises a year. Since I moved in 6 months ago none of the show rooms or open houses have closed. I wonder how long they will keep up this rate of construction?

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    Clockbike Clockbike Says:
    55

    @Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says

    I think we’re just thinking of different levels of poverty. Obviously, I didn’t think deep enough.

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    Time for the BC Libs to put out another ad showing how strong our economy is.

    I actually feel sorry for the NDP. Whether you are for or against them (and I’m not going to weigh in on that right now), the fact is that they are highly likely to win the next election, and also highly likely to inherit a financial perfect storm of epic proportions. House prices crashing, unemployment spiking, Chinese money drying up, a likely drop in global commodities prices. Hard to imagine them getting more than one term.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 46 Thumb down 3

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    57

    Housing data a bad omen for Canada’s economy

    Friday’s deeply disappointing Canadian housing starts numbers, on the back of Thursday’s drastically declining building permits numbers, paint a picture of a housing market in rapid retreat. But what’s more, they represent a massive obstacle to a recovery in Canada’s tepid economic growth.

    His numbers are for Canada as a whole. How about BC?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    58

    @54

    Worse, I am not sure how much of what is coming you can even hang on the provincial government. Luckily, the federal government will still be in power to reap their windfall.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous #3/Penny Lover Says:
    59

    @Clockbike #53

    “I think we’re just thinking of different levels of poverty. Obviously, I didn’t think deep enough.”

    It’s cool. I’m sorry if my response was too harsh. It did touch a nerve with me.

    I guess that’s what I want people to do–remember the deep poverty. Remember the people on welfare, on OAS, on minimum wage. Right away when I mention those groups, I fear people are going to start judging. Without getting into a blame game as to who is to blame for why people are poor and without getting into a left vs right fight, the point is think about how economic issues are refracted through the lens of poverty. I see everything from the point of view of poverty because it is engrained in me from childhood. So right away I have my back up when I am being nickled and dimed at the til because pennies have been abolished. Everything is different when you see it from the perspective of the very poor so the comment (from taylor192) of why not just pay on a no-annual-fee dividend Visa is not helpful for the poor. And remember that the very poor are not the housing bears’ enemy. The ones who have been binging on cheap credit and 0/40 mortgages are not the most impoverished people in society. Those people who have 0/40 mortgages are basically lower middle class–quite a few steps up from welfare or even minimum wage. And when the housing crash goes full bore and CMHC has to backstop all these mortgages, it’s the very poor again who are going to suffer due to these excesses of the lower middle class. If the national debt is run up due to CMHC then there will be little money left over for social programs that the poor rely on and the economy will suck which will make it even harder for the working poor to find minimum wage jobs. So this bubble is terrible for the poor, just as it is terrible for other social classes.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 4

    bullwhip29 Says:
    60

    @ Yalie February 8th, 2013 at 12:30 pm

    I wouldn’t assume the NDP has got this thing in the bag. Christy’s pulling out all the stops now. FWIW, I am voting “None of the above”.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeqG7ZjaEY0

    check out the facebook updates too…LOL. kudos to her photographer.
    https://www.facebook.com/ChristyClarkForBC

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

    @bullwhip29,

    I’m normally not a fan of BC’s pendulum-swing, chuck-the-bums-out political tradition, but we can’t be rid of that woman soon enough.

    Take a look at the polling data. Barring a genuine miracle, the BC Liberals are finished. (Incidentally, CC polls much worse than her party, making one wonder why they haven’t sent her packing.)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 3

    @LazyCanadian

    WOW. That construction plan at UBC is absolutely unbelievable. Isn’t the UBC farm out there? Don’t tell me they are planning on building condo’s on the farm. In any case, it is a massive waste of beautiful space.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 2

    Democrass Says:
    63

    “Don’t tell me they are planning on building condo’s on the farm. In any case, it is a massive waste of beautiful space”

    :) I have to laugh. Forget about the UBC Farm, they already cut down a huge chunk of the Pacific Spirit forest (which is part of the endowment lands) to build condos and a save-on-foods.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 2

    Democrass Says:
    64

    Can someone provide some perspective on the 16,000 jobs lost in BC? That strikes me as an absolutely huge, blockbuster negative number. Is this number not in “economic shock” territory?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 1

    UBC has gotten totally out of control. I graduated there a couple years ago, and it was getting a little ridiculous with the amount of construction, but now it’s even worse. When I visited for the first time in 2005, it was beautiful and was one of the reasons I wanted to go there.

    The whole campus is under construction now, and they’ve cut down massive parts on the endowment lands (a.k.a. woods) to build million dollar houses and condos (which is just what the generally poor students need).

    Most of the open green spaces are now huge condo towers. You can barely walk across campus anymore, with all the detours. Some people recently hung up a bunch of signs:

    http://ubyssey.ca/theblog/2012/10/12/anonymous-snarker-channels-construction-anger-into-guerilla-memes/

    Back in 2007 they permanently cancelled the annual big party students have on the last day of classes, because the people in their million dollar homes on campus didn’t like the students drunkenly walking through to the stadium. Apparently the realtors didn’t tell them that they lived on a campus…

    Nothing against UBC, I loved the school when I went there, but now when I visit campus, I feel bad for the current students.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 4

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    66

    ” I have to laugh. Forget about the UBC Farm, they already cut down a huge chunk of the Pacific Spirit forest (which is part of the endowment lands) to build condos and a save-on-foods.”

    This is common misconception. They are all on the UBC campus proper. The boundary between the UBC campus and Pacific Spirit Park (Endowment Lands) is the southern extension of Acadia Road.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

    Best place on meth Says:
    67

    #38

    Kudos to Christy for managing to squeeze those udders into a traditional Chinese costume for her latest photo op.

    I’ll bet that took the help of a few staffers.

    http://farm8.static.flickr.com/7051/6773783762_525bc006fd.jpg

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 18

    RaggedyRenter RaggedyRenter Says:
    68

    @Turkey

    “Take a look at the polling data. Barring a genuine miracle, the BC Liberals are finished. (Incidentally, CC polls much worse than her party, making one wonder why they haven’t sent her packing.)”

    Pretty much whoever Liberal trotted in this next election is going to be a turkey (pun intended). Better sit back and relax, hand over the key to Dix for 4-5 years of destruction and then Falcon, Abbott, or Dianne Watts can pick it up from there.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 4

    For such an analytical group unenamored with the destructive power of market forces, y’all sure are reflexively affeared of “the socialism”. Would anyone care to expand their critique of the NDP beyond a knowing chuckle?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Well under a 100 sales today, even rounded down to the nearest nickel.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 87 Thumb down 1

    bullwhip29 Says:
    71

    @ Turkey February 8th, 2013 at 1:21 pm

    I hear what you’re sayin’…

    I just think there will be a little more to this story before it’s all said and done. Look how completely out to lunch the pollsters were on their calls for the US election. Either this thing will be a complete and utter slaughterfest or the Liberals will figure out a way to whip the rug out from under everyone and steal it. Perhaps she’ll start out by giving away free money in little red envelopes on Chinese New Years…uhh, I mean on “Family Day” ;) ? Maybe she’ll even consider extending the BC First Time New Home Buyer Bonus? Hey, when in doubt, give away freebies (people like free stuff), make lots of promises you can’t keep (we keep falling for it every time), sling whatever mud you can find at your opponent (who cares if it isnt true) and show a little skin when and if the situation becomes dire enough to warrant it (at the end of the day most guys think with their peckers).

    http://bcblue.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/christy-clark.jpg

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3

    Best place on meth Says:
    72

    @Troll

    Well played.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 3

    bullwhip29 Says:
    73

    @ Best place on meth February 8th, 2013 at 2:58 pm

    Actually, I think that photo was from last year. I was just goofin’ around…

    This one is new, however…
    http://sphotos-d.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/580576_10152302694445942_1924749931_n.jpg

    and here’s one from a couple of weeks ago
    https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/154998_10152263818385942_1233582382_n.jpg

    (source https://www.facebook.com/ChristyClarkForBC)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Patiently Waiting Says:
    74

    “Can someone provide some perspective on the 16,000 jobs lost in BC?”

    Labour Minister Pat Bell was on CBC radio earlier today. He said that over 6k of those job losses were due to the real estate developments slowdown in the Lower Mainland. He also said something about Kitimat.

    Then the focus was on how everyone hates the Foreign Temporary Worker program and its going to have to be reworked.

    I’d find the link on the CBC website, but I’m too lazy.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    75

    “Barring a genuine miracle, the BC Liberals are finished.”

    Assuming they lose the next election, the big task ahead for the right in BC will be the same as in 1991 – branding. It took them a couple of elections to take over the BC Liberal party and consolidate enough support to win.

    This time around the BC Liberals will be in the same position as the Socreds in 1991. Will they try to repair the brand or go with another one – which more likely than not would involve the usual suspects taking over the BC Conservatives as their new brand.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 5

    Anonymous Says:
    76

    Chinese New Year is upon us…the year of the Black Water Snake

    “The colour of the 2013 year of Snake is Black. Black color is the Space, Arctic night, darkness on the Abyss, this is a color of deep waters. The Black Snake will bring people unexpected changes, instability, and changeability. That is why it is important in the year of Snake to plan everything beforehand, and evaluate adequately before taking any actions. You need to be more careful and cautious than ever.”

    So maybe not so many sales with more careful and cautious planning…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

    HAM Solo Says:
    77

    On jobs. Wasn’t hard to predict with everything else going on:

    1) Largest industry in BC is building/selling/financing/renovating residential housing. With the market going essentially no bid, the only current activity that makes sense is completing projects already under construction. As soon as all those condo towers complete … crickets.

    2) To some degree the homebuilders from Kelowna, Sunshine Coast, Whistler etc have been able to forestall unemployment by moving to Vancouver, heading to oil sands, picking up work in coal mining Southeast, or taking work in Alberta vacated by better skilled people heading to oilsands. Pretty much every one of those options is gone now. Oilsands at $55 WCS will not grow employment … in fact as projects complete, it will be hard for employees to find new work in that field

    3) Provincial government has a peculiar urge to cut spending right now. Afraid of disclosing a massive budget deficit number during the campaign, restricting elective spending…just adding fuel to the fire

    4) Services still humming … but their customers are spending money that is often borrowed. As #1 and #2 kick in, credit growth is stalling…people feel less like putting $10,000 for Disneyland trip on the HELOC. And the lenders (other than the kite salesment of Alpine Credit etc) increasingly less likely to want to fund that.

    5) A few areas of growth remain – forestry, certain sevices with fundamental growth drivers (bankrupty trustees etc), investment management (thanks to Bernanke … at least for now)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 1

    painted turtle Says:
    78

    I feel really safe now, knowing that the PM of this province bases her economic predictions on studies made by worldwide Chinese astrology.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3

    Just got an email from Onni. Look at their list of “hot-selling” properties all over town:

    Modern Riverside Living
    Priced from $264,900 | Richmond | 604.278.8825

    Optimal Value in Southeast False Creek
    Priced from $268,900 | Vancouver | 604.682.8801

    Peace & Quiet in the Heart of Coquitlam
    Priced from $261,900 | Coquitlam | 604.472.1123

    Vancouver’s Most Architecturally Significant Residential Building
    Priced from $347,900 | Vancouver | 604.682.8801

    Yaletown’s Architectural Masterpiece
    Priced from $418,900 | Vancouver | 604.687.4353

    West Coast Modern Residences
    Priced from $739,900 | West Vancouver | 604.922.0330

    Located in the Heart of Coquitlam Centre. Move in Today.
    Priced from $289,900 | Coquitlam | 604.461.2750

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 2

    And ya, that’s just by ONE developer

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    81

    ….Holy crap! Enough with the penny talk. Do we really need a discussion on how to round?….

    Penny for your thoughts; no wait! Nothing for your thoughts.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 3

    Since this “free for all” has bogged down into politics, thoght I might as well throw in my 2 cents worth.

    The only thing I like about about Dix is that the mere possibility of him as Premier ought to speed up the market crash as private investment gets spooked, and unfortunately along with potential employement.

    Can’t think of anyone ever less charisma.
    The poor guy looks defeated before the campaign has even begun.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 14

    Anonymous Says:
    83

    ….BC lost 16,000 jobs in January, the equivalent of the US losing 1.2 million jobs in a single month……

    Doo, doo, doo
    Down,doobie doo down,down
    Come-a, come-a Down,
    doobie doo down, down
    Rakin up is hard to do.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 5

    Anonymous Says:
    84

    …..the fact is that they are highly likely to win the next election, and also highly likely to inherit a financial perfect storm of epic proportions. ….

    What goes around, comes around.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 5

    New Listings 248
    Price Changes 65
    Sold Listings 83
    TI:14649

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 133 Thumb down 1

    Total days	19
    Days elapsed so far	6
    Weekends / holidays	2
    Days missing	0
    Days remaining	13
    7 Day Moving Average: Sales	86
    7 Day Moving Average: Listings	275
    SALES	
    Sales so far	509
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1121
    Projected month end total	1630
    NEW LISTINGS	
    Listings so far	1676
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	3572
    Projected month end total	5248
    Sell-list so far	30.4%
    Projected month-end sell-list	31.0%
    MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
    Inventory as of Feb 8th, 2013	14649
    MoI at this sales pace	8.99
    

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 42 Thumb down 1

    Paulb for Premier.

    Maybe Christie’s utters are not as bad as being “busted” for evading sky train fare.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 7

    Anyone criticizing the productivity cost of an additional holiday on small business should simply shut up. Wanna measure productivity? I have a baby boomer/30yr co-worker I am blessed to function with, someone who clearly has cost the organization millions due to no fault-incompetence that I would like to send your way.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 5

    Short'em High Says:
    89

    One scenario.

    Carney cuts rates next month. The key dates are:

    Feb 22 CPI
    Mar 6 Overnight Rate

    Depending on whether it is 1/4 or 1/2, we will then know how many bullets are left in the gun.

    If things don’t improve in the US by fall 2013, Canada will be in a deep recession with no monetary stimulus bullets left in the gun.

    A Vancouver apartment priced at $400K at that point will seem like a dream from a parallel universe. Nobody will be interested in RE anymore and it will be a surprise to many how quickly things deteriorated. People will be talking about moving away from a hell hole for better opportunities.

    Those scoffing at the linear prediction of 25,000 listings in yesterdays thread could very well see twice that number of listings. There will be talk of socializing cram down (rent equivalent) loans and blanket bailouts to keep people from becoming homeless and adding to new tent cities and soup lines.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 34 Thumb down 7

    CanuckDownUnder Says:
    90

    Could there be a February 16K party this year? With 13 sales days remaining inventory would have to increase by 104 per day for the rest of the month.

    Daily inventory increases in February so far: 161, 158, 154, 124, 122

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 39 Thumb down 2

    Best place on meth Says:
    91

    +122, inventory is piling up quickly.

    6 days into February and the daily averages are:

    Listings: 279, last Feb 281

    Sales: 85, last Feb 116

    Sell/list: 30%, Feb year 40%

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 44 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    92

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 15

    bon jovi Says:
    93

    even Steve H arrived in YVR for Chinese bash..what a suck up

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 5

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    94

    “Those scoffing at the linear prediction of 25,000 listings in yesterdays thread could very well see twice that number of listings. ”

    Even uber-bear Garth now says there will be no crash, but a slow melt.

    I’d happily place a cash bet of a not insignificant amount on us not seeing 50K inventory this year.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 17

    bon jovi Says:
    95

    do our politician even care?

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/02/07/marketplace-country-pricing.html

    “Canadians are paying far more than Americans for the same products because of a systemic and unjustifiable markup scheme by many manufacturers, a retail expert says.”

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    Best place on meth Says:
    96

    “Why would anyone up vote people losing their jobs??”

    If those jobs were in any way related to real estate then I’m fucking thrilled they’re gone.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 56 Thumb down 6

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    97

    Anon 89 is missing the point – what matters is whether the posting is relevant and informative to the forum, not whether we think it’s good or bad news.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 3

    Short'em High Says:
    98

    @Vote Down The Facts

    Don’t worry, your ante is already booked. Those that know, don’t need to book a wager with you personally to collect your money. That you are confident in exactly what will happen in your mind – that’s what prices in your side of the bet. Your assets, what they are denominated in, and what you think is “safe” already prices in your wager. It doesn’t matter whether you want to bet or not, you are already IN whether you know it or not!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 3

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    99

    Short’em High – so, conversely, you’re saying you stand to lose if inventory doesn’t hit 50K? Good luck with that.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 3

    Best place on meth Says:
    100

    After hearing Alpine Credits radio ads for as long as I can remember, I just saw a TV ad for the first time.

    They must be doing really well sucking desperate, poverty stricken homeowners into pledging their houses over to them for cash.

    It’s like the money mart of real estate.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 40 Thumb down 3

    vanpire Says:
    101

    I think we will see lots of similar ads soon (as found on craigslist):

    $269900 / 2br – waveliving.ca
    Recently booked a two bedroom apartment in the new unique design building.
    Will be ready in spring 2016.
    Gave a deposit of 10,000
    due to recent diagnosis of a serious health issue, wish no commitment.
    Looking for someone who might be interested in taking over.
    Many thanks.

    Oops…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 3

    My simple average month-on-month sales change prediction of 99 daily sales in February is looking not so good…

    I heard from acertainrealtor that he’s “busy”, so things must be looking up. Come to think of it he always says he’s “busy” :?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    103

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 14

    Anonymous Says:
    104

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 26

    Anonymous Says:
    105

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 27

    jesse, at least realtors are busy making money. unlike you, busy posting useless info with all the workless blogging people.

    Busy making money? Oh that’s rich. You, like most realtors, are a fucking parasite, contributing nothing of value, and your days are numbered. Honestly, other than Paul B, who provides more real value than all the rest of you leeches combined, you realtors have nothing to offer. I take that back, Paul offers infinitely more value than the rest of you combined, because he actually gives out useful information that consumers can use to make informed decisions. Decisions that may save them hundreds of thousands of dollars. The rest of you exist solely to obfuscate the facts and suck money out of unsuspecting lemmings, making your net contribution to society negative.

    Enjoy the coming year, sucker. You’re about to get hit with exactly what you deserve.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 72 Thumb down 2

    ” at least realtors are busy making money
    Fixed

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 39 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    108

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    yvr2zrh Says:
    109

    Oops — reposting on correct thread . .

    Happy Saturday to all.
    We all know the market is bad, regardless of any realtorspeak that has made the press in the pas t week. We also mostly know that the worst period in Vancouver real estate was from September 2008 through about March 2009. Those months were the lowest sales since 2000 and some of them (such as Nov/Dec 2008) are almost unlikely to be reached again in the future. However, right now we are again at an inflection point. On a market wide basis, February 2013 is shaping up to be the 2nd worst Feb in recent years. However, as you look at the pockets – it is clear that there are some that are much worse.
    So – Comparing Feb 2013 with Feb 2009, here are some general thoughts based on the current trend.
    1.) Sales are higher in 2013 and should be about 10% over Feb 2009. This is a massive deterioration from last month as Jan 2013 was 75% over Jan 2009. This is the effect of a market that is weakening now compared to a market in 2009 that was strengthening.
    2.) Listings are much higher than 2009. 2009 was low but in 2013, we are 1.5 StdDev above the average from 2002-2011. So – given that the board is saying people won’t list – I think it is a wish more than a fact. (they are trying to re-create the 2009 market by removing listings – which actually happened then as people were in a state of shock – this is not happening now – people have lost a lot of money and they do not want to lose more . . . so they list).
    3.) We are on track for worst sell to list in any February in recent history.
    4.) Some markets are worse. Van West Detached forecasting worst Feb in history with lowest sales and highest listings. Don’t know if anyone has access to Van West Detached listings for past 15 years but did we ever have over 400 listings in a month?
    5.) Richmond Detached – heading for worst Feb ever. . . .
    6.) Even Vancouver West Condos – Volumes looking to be below 2009 with higher listings. (We are not however seeing record listings in Condos – they are high but we would need 20-30% more listing volume here to show panic – – – )
    7.) Van East detached – Not seeing the same panic in listing volume as Van West. Sales are down however. Lower inventory and lower listing rate will keep MOI here a bit lower (i.e. 8 instead of 12)
    8.) Richmond Condos? Panic !!!! Sell now or forever eat Dim Sum and live in the Mandarin Residences!!!! Not sure why you would ever buy a condo there until 30-40% price decreases occur.
    9.) West Van – – Sales volume quite similar to 2009, slow – – but listing volume is way up. I would say it is Panic there in a West Van sort of way. Think about it – West Van has 10,000 detached homes. At the current selling rate, the turnover in the real estate stock would take 30 years. Seems a little long – the average time in a house is likely not that long . . !!! Good luck to them all.
    10.) North Van Detached – Modestly better than 2009.
    11.) Burnaby – Sales rate is similar but listing rate up 42%.

    February is barely a week old. However – it is already certain to be the worst Sale to List ratio ever and have an inventory increase not seen in any other February.
    Happy New Year to All and . . . . MS . . I hope you’re keeping “busy”. . . Busy Listing that is!!!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 56 Thumb down 0

    At the Boat Sow, sales are “booming” and first day sales were up eight-fold over last year. How can this be when the economy seems to be faltering with huge job losses and real estate crumbling?

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/02/08/bc-place-boat-show.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    […] “Had a nice talk with a doctor department head tonight. He moved here from Chicago where he’s still paying the mortgage on an underwater property. He looks at the prices here and he can see that it doesn’t add up. He was wondering when the tipping point would come for Vancouver. In any case, he has no intention of buying here for now. These things are obvious when viewed from the outside.” – N at VCI February 8th, 2013 at 12:18 am […]

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

    yvr2zrh,

    Do you have access to overall RE stock numbers for 2009 vs 2013? I believe if we calculate overall sales on an adjusted to overall stock basis, we might get different numbers for comparison, especially for condos.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    113

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 20

    Anonymous Says:
    114

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    115

    Good thing that no local who would like to buy a house in Vancouver is currently paying a mortgage on an underwater property, eh? :-)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    HAM Solo Says:
    116

    @ Q

    And you thought realtors could spin.

    Slogan alternatives for this year’s boat show:

    a) “The BS”

    b) Up the creek without a paddle

    c) Going down with the ship

    I’m sure if anyone actually went to the show, they would report the sound of crickets. But seeing as no one’s there the spinners can spin with impunity

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2

    mclovin mclovin Says:
    117

    Anonymous is still here?

    I would have thought he would still be sleeping off his hangover. He is clearly a Realtor based on his terrible spelling and grammar. I don’t think a high school diploma is even a requirement for the 6 week course is it?

    As this blog increases in popularity I think we will see more and more posts like this. Bulls who are utterly shocked and angry that a blog like this exists. They post angry fluff for a week and are either beaten into submission with facts or they simple move on and dismiss us as crazy.

    Things are getting much worse and even the most bullish cannot argue this fact. I think the next 6 months are going to be very interesting as the weight of inventory and price drops crushes the spirit of the Bulls and simple fundamentals rule the day.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 37 Thumb down 3

    midnite toker midnite toker Says:
    118

    I suppose if your house gets foreclosed on, you can always live on your boat!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    119

    “I suppose if your house gets foreclosed on, you can always live on your boat!”

    Boats are not protected in bankruptcy. :-)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 2

    painted turtle Says:
    120

    It is starting :)

    3752 FRASER ST MLS® V990164

    ‘Quick possession possible. LISTING PRICE IS BELOW 2013 ASSESSMENT. Don’t miss this one.’

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 2

    wait until “LISTING PRICE IS BELOW 2004 ASSESSMENT”

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 44 Thumb down 2

    Groundhog Says:
    122

    Wow looks like Anonymous hasn’t had a sale in a while, I agree with mclovin I think we’ll be seeing more and more of that.

    After reading those posts I envision Realtors right now closing their eyes and covering their ears, repeating to themselves their Vancouver Real Estate mantra: “It’s different here, it’s different here, it’s different here, it’s different here, it’s different here, it’s different here………IT’S DIFFERENT HERE!”

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 2

    Longtimereader Says:
    123

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 23

    Anonymous Says:
    124

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 23

    Anonymous Says:
    125

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 18

    Maybe in 2014? Says:
    126

    Had an appointment with our banker yesterday. Apparently RBC is offering cash incentives for existing customers of non-CHMC insured mortgages to renew at fixed rates.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    kabloona kabloona Says:
    127

    Another re-definition of “flat market”, this time from the Real Estate Board of Victoria. Apparently, “flat prices” = 7.6% median drop YoY.

    Source: http://www.vreb.org/mls_statistics/current_statistics.html

    Wow, another few months of “flat pricing” and houses will be selling at a 30 percent discount….

    Full text:

    Sales Down but Prices Hold in Greater Victoria Real Estate Market

    February 1, 2013

    VICTORIA BC – A slow start to the year in Victoria’s real estate market is evidence that buyers are continuing to wait for prices to drop. Although January 2013 sales are 21% lower than January 2012, the six-month average price for a Greater Victoria home is only down 1% for the same period.

    “We are realistic and sales are not what we would like to see,” says Shelley Mann, President of Victoria Real Estate Board. “But there are many stories within the market. This week, three houses sold in Sidney that were all newly listed and they sold for over asking price.”

    Mann adds that she’s spoken to several local REALTORS® who have clients who want to buy, but they are looking for good houses with quality amenities. “One Member told me that he has several potential buyers, but they can’t find anything they like.”

    In January, 294 properties sold, compared to 372 in January 2012. The median price of a single family home is $482,500 compared to $522,000, a decline of 7.6.%. The six-month average shows a 1.4% decline, year-over-year, but less than one percent over last month.

    “My basic message is that sales are down, prices are flat and our provincial economist is predicting 2013 will be a transition year,” Mann says. “He believes the economic fundamentals are strong, and as a result the sales volume will increase 4% this year over 2012, but prices will remain flat.”

    Current active listings are 3,870. There were 81 condominium sales in January, a 24.6% increase over December 2012, while the median price of $238,350 is down 12.1% year-over-year. Townhouses saw increased sales in the past month and a median price of $382,000, up 4.7% year-over-year.

    Total Waterfront Single Family Dwellings sold: 9, up 5 over January 2012
    Total Non-waterfront Single Family Dwellings sold:144, down 43 sales from January 2012
    Single Family Dwellings sold over $1 million: 3 (1 over $2 million)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 1

    mclovin mclovin Says:
    128

    “Time to leave this circus freakshow blog”

    Buh Bye Remax agent of the month Jan 2010

    (when you last made a sale)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 1

    Jerry Boyle Says:
    129

    Christy Clark’s re-election platform:

    #1. Make April 1 a statutory holiday.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 2

    vancouverguy Says:
    130

    Kabloona, enjoyed the link. My favourite line from the report is this obfuscation:

    “The six-month average shows a 1.4% decline, year-over-year, but less than one percent over last month.”

    So clearly, based on this statistical acrobatics, they can say “prices hold” in the headline of their news release. What a crock.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    vancouver 2011 Says:
    131

    nothing good has come out of this housing bubble for canada as a whole.
    sure a lot of boomers are now millionaires. same with some realtors and mortgage brokers. people who were already on the “property ladder” did well over all.
    But: this society is now broken!!
    people who missed the boat are screwed. no way to ever catch up. it’s a fact.

    the biggest transfer of wealth from one generation to another right in front of our eyes. – check!

    taking out more and more dept to make the banks even richer – check!

    young middle class gone – check!

    it’s sad and depressing. canada sold out. brought to you by the Harper Goverment and it’s irresponsible fiscal policies. – check!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 7

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    132

    “people who were already on the “property ladder” did well over all.”

    They gained nothing unless they cashed out, and few did and few will.

    Many more people on the “ladder” increased their exposure than decreased it.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 2

    Groundhog Says:
    133

    @Vancouver 2011

    All things go in cycles. Yes, I think the bubble has had negative societal impacts, and will have severely negative economic and societal impacts in the years to come, but life will go on.

    “people who missed the boat are screwed. no way to ever catch up. it’s a fact.”

    “the biggest transfer of wealth from one generation to another right in front of our eyes. – check!”

    The people you said have become millionaires are only paper millionaires. The wealth is an illusion, if they all went to cash in on that paper profit at the same time the wealth would disappear instantly. The people who are screwed are those that all jumped on that boat, the boats now over capacity and sinking. Those that didn’t jump on are the ones that will do OK in the future.

    “it’s sad and depressing. canada sold out. brought to you by the Harper Goverment and it’s irresponsible fiscal policies. – check!”

    As much as I think the government contributed to the bubble, take a look around the world. Nearly every western country has had a huge housing bubble since the new millennium, and they’re all in various stages of unwinding. If its a global theme, there’s probably more to it then the Harper government. Maybe investigate the part the various central banks have played in this, and the consensus economic policy that is adhered to by central banks around the world. On top of that, some of it has been due to influences the government couldn’t control, but maybe mishandled, such as demographics.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 4

    Short'em High Says:
    134

    Maybe in 2014? Says:
    February 9th, 2013 at 1:13 pm

    Had an appointment with our banker yesterday. Apparently RBC is offering cash incentives for existing customers of non-CHMC insured mortgages to renew at fixed rates.

    BANKER: Since you’re here, one more thing. Have you ever considered mortgage insurance? You’re getting a great deal and cash back. You could use that cash to buy some piece of mind in these uncertain times with some government backed mortgage insurance. With this insurance, no matter what happens, your mortgage will be “safe”.

    DEBTOR: I HAVE been hearing some bad things about the economy and unemployment recently. So yes, I would be interested in mortgage insurance.

    BANKER: Brilliant. You’re so intuitive! Now I don’t have to explain. I’ve got those papers ready for your signature right here…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    135

    “On top of that, some of it has been due to influences the government couldn’t control, but maybe mishandled, such as demographics.”

    The federal government has an arsenal of powers that it could use to hold down RE prices. Germany has used such powers only lightly and it has worked. The idea that global trends have made RE bubbles inevitable in any country is nonsense.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 7

    Groundhog Says:
    136

    @Patriotz

    “The idea that global trends have made RE bubbles inevitable in any country is nonsense.”

    That’s not what I said or meant.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 3

    Short'em High Says:
    137

    @patrioz: “government has an arsenal of powers that it could use to hold down RE prices”

    No elected government here of any stripe is going to put a well deserved public beat down on anyone. They can hardly muster the political will to force dangerous lunatics to take their psychiatric medication – so we get these mass stabbings and bus beheading incidents before there is even the idea that a public menace could even be supervised. Maybe Germany is different. The public there perhaps see some benefit in administering the commons more closely.

    Please name any Federal politician or party that might do what you suggest if elected.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 4

    mclovin mclovin Says:
    138

    A couple of points that are bullish for prices in the short term. If not bullish at least not bearish.

    Builders are pulling off planned capacity very quickly. Building permits are down sharply. The average margin on a project is 15% and two years lead time. I guess they don’t see it as a worthwhile risk and/or they cannot get the pre-sales necessary to get financing. This will not stop the bust but it won’t be as quick as it would have otherwise been if they had just kept building.

    Interest rates are not going up anytime soon. Again this will not stop the bust but it will be sometime before the market is affected by rising cost of money.

    This is not a “bear” blog. This is a fact blog. We post facts. The fact that 99% of them are bearish has people label us bears. I find that hilarious. At some point I will be bullish on Vancouver RE as I was on Palm Springs RE 18 months ago. When the facts and numbers dictate – not hot air.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 7

    kabloona kabloona Says:
    139

    Just finished watching some more shameless condo-pimpin’ on CTV Vancouver News – the lead news item yet!!

    Apparently, Chinese buyers are all set to save the Vancouver Condo market by buying condos for their offspring – all in celebration of The Year of The Snake!!

    You can’t make this s**t up……

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 39 Thumb down 1

    Maybe in 2014? Says:
    140

    @ Short’Em 131

    This was in casual conversation. I was there for non-mortgage related reasons.

    Reading between the lines I took it as the bank was starting to get nervous about the ability some of their non-insured mortgage clients ability to keep up with their payments. Perhaps I misinterpreted.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    Maybe in 2014? Says:
    141

    @ Short’Em 131

    This was in casual conversation and related to customers that already had existing variable rate mortgages with the bank. I was there for non-mortgage related reasons.

    Reading between the lines I took it as the bank was starting to get nervous about the ability some of their non-insured mortgage clients ability to keep up with their payments.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    southseacompany Says:
    142

    Snakes on a Plane!

    Chinese Air Cavalry to the rescue;
    “Year of the Snake nets condo sales: developers”, CTV News

    http://bc.ctvnews.ca/year-of-the-snake-nets-condo-sales-developers-1.1150505#ixzz2KSb2w75h

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    specuskeptic specuskeptic Says:
    143

    RE: CTV story

    “Monorail monorail MONORAIL!”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEZjzsnPhnw

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    Short'em High Says:
    144

    @specuskeptic

    I think you’re right on the money with the Simpsons Monorail flimflam comparison. That piece was as phoney as the famous Yellow Helicopter. This time it was carefully choreographed Chinese sisters with the appropriate shade of lipstick for Mainlander fashion and plausible backstory.

    I wish Bosa luck. The more that overpay with cash, the better. Cash never gets bailed out. Capital destruction goes straight into the account on the other side of the trade.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1

    @Patriotz
    “Germany has used such powers only lightly and it has worked. The idea that global trends have made RE bubbles inevitable in any country is nonsense.”

    Germany has much different demographic trends than most western nations. See the rust-coloured line below bottoming ~1990. They are actually closer to Japan than much of the western world.
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rwVG-aQ1kiI/TD-9xKoS0JI/AAAAAAAAAYg/HXmJXZVCXaI/s1600/Output.png
    Basically if the line is descending, RE prices are under pressure; if the line is ascending, RE prices will experience a strong tailwind as depicted in this chart.
    http://2.static.australianindependentbusinessmedia.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/graph_colorbox/public/121214%20RW%201.png
    Anyhow, I think Groundhog makes a good point about country trends and cycles.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

    Oops, I may have reversed the ‘descending’ and ‘ascending’ below. Depends what chart you’re looking at, as the second chart is inversed.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    […] “Labour Minister Pat Bell was on CBC radio earlier today. He said that over 6k of the announced 16K job losses in BC were due to real estate development slowdown in the Lower Mainland.” – Patiently Waiting at VCI 8 Feb 2013 3:37pm […]

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    @southseacompany:

    At around 1:10 of the news story: “Bosa delayed construction of its Evergreen development in Coquitlam to keep the showroom open for the year of the snake”

    OH… So *thats* why they delayed that construction! It had nothing to do with lack of sales or anything like that. Nope! Why, that wouldn’t make sense, so shhhh don’t anybody mention it, okay?

    Srsly, is it just me or is the MSM just getting lazy with how obviously they’re in bed with the real estate cheerleaders… The MSM now can’t even acknowledge the painfully obvious?

    The Vancouver MSM is like a guy cheating on his wife who has progressively gotten too lazy to even hide his adultery under the bedcovers anymore. The MSM now regularly straddles the local realty cheerleaders in plain view of the public, as if there’s nothing wrong with it.

    The saddest part is that the faithful followers of the Vancouver MSM steadfastly refuse to see what is going on, cannot accept that it could be going on, and continue trusting the MSM.

    We all know all too well how this ends. Alas, the Vancouver MSM is destined to be largely responsible for giving its faithful followers some dreadful financial diseases thanks to the MSMs promiscuity.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 37 Thumb down 1

    phiscal. Says:
    149

    #135 Mclovin: when you say builders are pulling back on planned building I don’t see that as bullish at all. Maybe I’m just overly negative, but when I see that I think hundreds of decent paying construction jobs lost and wonder what a ‘developer’ does when they aren’t developing. Things must look pretty bad to get builders to stop building, what do they do if they aren’t building?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    604 Receding Gains Says:
    150

    Great comments yvr2

    Seems like Boomers in West Van and Van West may be trying to simply cash-out before the crash. That would explain the listings rush. Who knows, maybe a few plane loads of HAM will bail them out yet. I recall feeling 2011 was going to be the year of the collapse in January and we all know what happened than.

    Burnaby is a weird stat. Do you have a break-out of North vs. South Burnaby? Could it be local domestic Chinese-Canadians over-leveraged (with speculative condos in Richmond and Metrotown) trying to sell principal residence to cover losses on speculative buying in 2011? Who knows – that’s a total (presumptuous) guess, but something very odd seems to be happening in Burnaby.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    vanhattan Says:
    151

    As some of you know, I bailed on Vancouver in 2011, primarily due to the fact that I could not see any decent financial future and simply could not compete with all the swarms of buyers at opens even though I make well into the six figures. No Van just became too rich for me as my living standards became worse every day. It seems in retrospect that I made the correct decision.

    Even so, I am sort of wondering if listings if start to taper down to a trickel as they did in the USA?? Before you give me a thumbs down, here me out…would love to hear your comments…..

    When the real estate market started tanking in late 2006, there was a spike in listings as the smart money was quickly heading for the exits. Then 2007 hit and the bottom fell out. Many, who were caught up in the greed of it all thought that it was a temporary correction, thought they would wait for a better day just around the corner and took their property off the market. They then watched their property values NOSE DIVE. Many were left completely underwater and could not get out and probably kicked themselves for a poor choice. Now, even in a slightly improved market, many still cannot get out because lending has become so tight, that even if they sold they know they will most likely qualify for a loan. Rents have now spiked too because so many cannot qualify for a loan to buy, building has been virtually non existant for 6 years, and the vacancy rates are at the bottom.

    So now, rents are up, inventory is down, and there is a shit load of stuck, poor people. My own home is a good example of this. The owner first listed his place for 1.5M+ in 2007. He would list for 4 months, then with no takers, rented the place out for a year. Then he would drop the price by 100K, re list, not sell, rent the place out, rinse and repeat, all the while he kept CHASING the market down over 4 years. When I came around, he made ME an offer, for ust a bit over 900K. So he lost over 600K and HE was HAPPY and relieved to do so.

    I suspect the same type of cycle may just beginning for Vancouver. The smart money would get ahead of the down curve, cut their asking prices by 25% or more below comparables today, and try to sell asap before they are looking at losses of 40, 50 and 60%.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 2

    604 Receding Gains Says:
    152

    wow, here’s an alternate explanation of Burnaby listings spike – construction trade workers are bailing out (my apologies to all non-trade workers in Burnaby):

    “Labour Minister Pat Bell was on CBC radio earlier today. He said that over 6k of the announced 16K job losses in BC were due to real estate development slowdown in the Lower Mainland.”

    hat tip to vreaa.wordpress.com

    Fasten your seatbelts. Many in the real estate industry have been gulping the Kool-Aid and loaded up on condos. They all piled into the market together and they’ll all try to pile out together. Prices will be crushed.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    153

    @Vanhatten

    “Even so, I am sort of wondering if listings if start to taper down to a trickel as they did in the USA??”

    Your whole post is a very possible scenario for here. I’m not sure how this all plays out. Part of me thinks that, because the EXACT same bubble has played out recently in the US and elsewhere in the world, that people here will come to the realization much quicker then they did in the US, and the crash will be quicker as a result. On the other hand, for the last few years I’ve watched in disbelief as people fall into the same belief traps as they did in the US, and act in complete ignorance of the risks of their actions.

    So, I don’t know for sure, and I wouldn’t be surprised either way if people start scrambling in panic for the exit or if people are complacent and pull listings, then relisting only slowly lowering their prices chasing down the market. That’s called anchoring bias and endowment bias in behavioral finance. If I had to bet, I’d bet on your scenario that people list and relist chasing down the market in the process, until they finally give in (capitulation) at a price far, far lower then offers they received in the past.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    @vanhattan

    You moved because Vancouver real estate prices were too high, and then you bought a house for just shy of a million. Wouldn’t it have been easier to rent in Vancouver or just move it a cheaper part of town? You must really put a lot of value on housing.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 8

    yvr2zrh Says:
    155

    #139 . . Just went to CTV site to watch it. . . and . . I don’t make this up . . there was an advertisement before the clip played. . . and it was for . . “Credit Counselling Socitey of BC” . . .

    Very well placed!!!

    As for the statements of developers that things are better this year. This could be true and we will have to see how this impacts the numbers this year. However – – sending out a message that everyone is buying may just be a ploy to make those who are not buying – second guess themselves and think that they are one of the only ones not buying.

    As for kids of Chines parents? I worked ina business that started to get many of them coming in for jobs. At the end of the day, when kids don’t find jobs – they are not going to stick around town. So – with 1,000’s of kids of Chinese in town being educated, so many will leave as jobs are way more plentiful in China and not here. . .

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    vanhattan Says:
    156

    In response to NSays; My house is my home.

    It was impossible for me to pretend that a million dollar tear down was anything more than an ugly piece of trash that needed to be torn down. I put a HIGH value on ME, my FAMILY and my environment. I have self respect. I also feel that I understand what the term value is. Most simply know the price of EVERYTHING and the VALUE of nothing. Moving to a cheaper part of town only meant living in even WORSE conditions. No thanks. I deserve better. And now I have better, MUCH BETTER. I had no desire nor inclination to lower my standards to the lowest common denominator. I now live just 15 minutes north of one of the prettiest cities of the world in the redwood forest in a gorgeous home, one that would have cost me at least 3+ million in Vancouver. Funny thing is, I even make more money down here too. See how that works?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 2

    Groundhog Says:
    157

    @N

    That makes no sense. He stated he makes 100K plus a year. Probably has a significant amount of savings from renting. Maybe makes more in the US outside of Vancouver? I would think likely. Maybe he can afford a $1M house to live in, but doesn’t want to live in a POS teardown in East Van? A million is still a lot. Look around the world at what a million can buy. Only a fool would spend that million on a house in Van right now. Its not the nominal number attached to the houses here, its the value that you get from that price that isn’t in line.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    158

    @yvr2zrh

    “So – with 1,000′s of kids of Chinese in town being educated, so many will leave as jobs are way more plentiful in China and not here. . .”

    Good riddance. Maybe then some of the white kids can get jobs.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 26 Thumb down 27

    […] very useful market updates and commentary from yvr2zrh (zrh2yvr) at VCI 8 Feb 2013 11:15am & 9 Feb 2013 3:00am; and at VREAA 9 Feb 2013 […]

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    CBC local news also had a similar blurb on the condo sales during CNY, with the same happy prospective “condo purchaser” as the CTV blurb. It looks like MAC Marketing Solutions (recall Cameron McNeill from the “borough of Yaletown”, ref CBC National piece on Vancouver RE) is on a Hail Mary media blitz to aggressively pump the media message. As the condo flogger in the CBC piece says, the next two weeks set the pace for the year. It’s amazing how our lazy local incompetent MSM are so gullible in helping spread the message.

    If the sales continue to be so down, it will be the end of the road for companies like MAC Marketing Solutions, Rennie Marketing Systems, etc. so you can’t really blame them for pulling out all the stops this spring.

    I fully expect Tsur and Cameron to make guest appearances any day now.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    161

    N151 N, wow- you really seem to go for the ‘best place on earth’ myth. Why would anyone move to a cheaper area of a place they don’t want to live? Have you been outside of Vancouver? There’s a whole world out there, many places with a much higher standard of living for the middle class. Every place has its pros and cons, in the end Vancouver is just another city. I think many people who are feeling stressed in Vancouver would do well to move on if their income is mobile. I did and only come back to visit, it was one of the best decisions I’ve made.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 1

    Jerry Boyle Says:
    162

    The idea that the Harper government just got sideswiped by global property trends is hard to take.

    These guys saw exactly what was happening in the US, and couldn’t wait to jump on board. They (and their Republican advisors) saw how the wealth effect of the bubble helped the Bush government to a second term, and thought it would work to get them a majority. They saw the consequences of that US bubble popping in 2006, and stuck to the plan anyway. They thought the short-term gain — for them! — was worth the long-term pain for the rest of us.

    And in 2008 they doubled down on the bubble to cover up their fiscal incompetence heading into the financial crisis.

    It’s easy to say that no politician is willing to campaign on lower house prices. But I only see one party that was willing to recklessly inflate this massive bubble as their route to power.

    If there is any justice, the coming real-estate cataclysm will destroy these clowns, making the wipe-out of the Mulroney Conservatives look like a picnic in the park. I hope to see Harper’s party castrate him in the caucus room, so he can run as his own Kim Campbell.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 6

    Boombust Says:
    163

    Jerry Boyle,

    THAT was an excellent post!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 4

    Prices aren’t too hard to figure out if you use the following ratio as a guide.

    Ratio down = Prices up, Ratio up = Prices down.
    http://www.pacificapartners.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/D3-Canadian-dependency-ratio-UN-Forecasts.png

    China’s now at a major turning point.
    http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2010/jun/images/graph-0610-3-3.gif

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2

    Short'em High Says:
    165

    Jerry Boyle Says:
    February 10th, 2013 at 11:29 am

    The idea that the Harper government just got sideswiped by global property trends is hard to take.

    You’re absolutely right. Harper’s government followed US style “Fad Finance” down the garden path like every other lemming country. In lockstep, mortgage rules were loosened and Canadian banks were given liquidity loans to match the US bailout loans. Canadian branches of the big US automakers were also given generous bailout loans too.

    Throw them out, but choose carefully.

    http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/27/mulcair-has-remortgaged-his-quebec-home-11-times-since-early-1980s/

    Would an NDP government have done differently? More importantly, going forward, will an NDP majority even look at the problem differently? Is it even on their radar? Do the Quebec voters that put in so many Federal NDP members care about this?

    The question in my earlier post still stands.

    Is there any politician anywhere that thinks that there should be controls on home prices or even controls on government backed finance of home loans?

    Given the choices, it seems a Federal minority government of some sort is the only (albeit weak) check on power that is available to Canadians.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 3

    @Jerry Boyle

    I think most property trends are beyond Gov control. Even interest rates aren’t controlled by Gov (Cbanks) as much as everyone thinks. For instance, the fear in 2008 simply pushed scared money into the perceived safety of Canadian bonds, thereby driving our interest rates down. Our CBank was forced to follow suit with the interbank rate.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 4

    Short'em High Says:
    167

    Danny Says:
    February 10th, 2013 at 12:21 pm
    …Our CBank was forced to follow suit

    I don’t buy that either. An independent central bank has a duty to make decisions that politians cannot.

    Tell me one thing. How does Australia justify keeping their overnight rate at 3% (and down from 5 and 4 percent recently)? Is their inflation as the Bank of Canada measures it soaring through the roof? Do their citizens need wheelbarrows full of money to buy a loaf of bread?

    Not buying this argument. Not buying Carney’s “genius” in following along because of “interbank rate” while admonishing the masses on their spending. It should be a qualification of our next central banker that he or she has no designs on becoming a politician ever.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 4

    Groundhog Says:
    168

    @Short’em High

    “Tell me one thing. How does Australia justify keeping their overnight rate at 3% (and down from 5 and 4 percent recently)?”

    http://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/focus/081201_top10_twoway_exports.html

    Because Australia is more diversified and much more closely tied to the Chinese and Asian economies then the US whereas the Canadian economy is overwhelmingly influenced by the US.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Canada

    This is probably the main reason behind the Canadian/Australian CD interest rate policy differences. Had Canada kept interest rates high the CADUSD exchange rate would be significantly higher and put a huge damper on the economy.

    You can debate the merits of the 0% policy of the fed all you want, but I think the reality is that Canada is constrained to follow along with the Fed, +/- a small amount.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 2

    Boombust Says:
    169

    Jerry Boyle,

    Re: Harper.

    IMO I think he is nothing more than a slippery sociopath. Very cold and reptilian.

    Hidden agendas all the way.

    Most likely the CIA’s top Bureau Chief in Ottawa.

    I detest him at least as much as Brian Mulroney.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 8

    In addition to Groundhog’s explanation, if Carney left short-term rates at say 3% while investors drove Cdn/US 10-year notes down to 2%, it would dangerously distort our financial markets & currency. Ie. Inverted yield curve. He had no choice.

    One last ratio chart I came across. This one reveals why Spain & Ireland started to burst around the same time as US.
    http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EuropeGraph.jpg
    It also shows why Germany didn’t have to deal with a bubble during the same period.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 3

    Short'em High Says:
    172

    Groundhog Says:
    February 10th, 2013 at 12:47 pm
    … CADUSD exchange rate would be significantly higher and put a huge damper on the economy…

    MANTRA CHANTRA!

    So what. A few pennies, not 10 percent. Also, what is the cost/benefit long term?

    Is it better that most people rack up debts they will never be able to pay off no matter how much more rates are cut? Or is it better that a tiny few foreign priced “shoe shine” export jobs have to cut costs?

    Nobody who thinks about it is buying this old saw about relative rates and different economies.

    The central banker should be independent and long term. They should not be looking out for the philosopical interests of a former employer or future political career for themselves.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 4

    Short'em High Says:
    173

    Danny Says:
    February 10th, 2013 at 1:42 pm
    … Inverted yield curve.

    Not inverted until it inverts! Also, where is the cost/benefit science on this?
    Australia’s yield curve is inverted too.

    The “wisdom” of yield curve targetting, jobs targetting, and all the rest is just mantra. Mantra chantra – a hollow narrative to justify phoney baloney policies that amount to doing nothing and looking good while you’re talking.

    The debt elephant in the room is diconnected from these things.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    174

    vanhattan: “I now live just 15 minutes north of one of the prettiest cities of the world in the redwood forest”

    Any reason why you don”t just name the city you live?

    There are plenty of great reasons to leave Vancouver like more pay, better weather, etc. Sounds like those factored into your decision. But I agree with N if housing is the only factor then you could have rented a nice place without having to be 15 minutes away from the city. Having been an owner of several places in the past and now a renter you soon realize owning does not improve your standard of living. Renting works just fine. The only benefit to owning IMO is to save money which you may or may not be doing in the mystery city you live.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    175

    “Nobody who thinks about it is buying this old saw about relative rates and different economies.”

    Call me dumb then, I have thought about these things a lot and I buy into it.

    It’s a complex system, and relative rates and different economies are factors in it along with other factors. You asked why Australia could possibly have higher interest rates then Canada and I provided an answer which I think explains a large reason why.

    I’m not trying to be an apologist for the Harper government or Central Banks. I just don’t think any other government would have done things much differently, and for as long as Central Banks exist (hopefully not too much longer in their current forms) they, rightly or wrongly, have a job to do and mandates to adhere to.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 5

    Groundhog Says:
    176

    @Danny

    Interestingly, Germany house prices had a small peak around the mid 1980’s, coinciding with the low of the dependency ratio in 1985.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/archives/16692

    That ratio does seem to have a very high correlation to house prices across all countries.

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    bon jovi Says:
    177

    I have a several questions but try to answer in the simple terms

    1) How much more Consumer & Corporate & Government debt can increase? I know comparison to US but i want CND perspective.
    2) How long before interest rates should start rising? Is it that political decesion?
    3) Can anyone guess unemployment numbers when housing prices and economy start to deflate? Are we talking 10%, 20%, 25%? Why we should be better off then lets say Spain? Is it because of resources?

    Thanks

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    Let's stick to RE Says:
    178

    Anon—#30
    “Piss off already with the penny talk”

    Good one anon.
    It would be even better if we could get rid of all the political crap. I find it annoying when posters use this forum for their own political agenda. That’s about the only stuff I ever vote down.

    The market is tanking quite nicely, so why to we have to go out of our way to find a way to bitch and fight about it?
    I don’t think that RE markets are affected by government as much as some people might want to believe, and at the risk of contradicting my complaint, I would be more inclined to support a govt that will not meddle in free markets.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 11

    UBC in Crisis Mode Says:
    179

    Wow, beautiful new house on Van West just listed:
    http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V989612&REBoards=All&From=MLS

    Assessed: $2,564,000
    Asking: $5,188,000

    The timing may not be optimal.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 2

    @ UBC 176

    I think that is not a beautiful new home, but a proposed future home that has yet to be build, and so the assessment is probably for the lot. Still a hard sell in the current market.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    181

    @bon jovi

    “I have a several questions but try to answer in the simple terms”

    Those are all very good Q’s but unfortunately there are no simple answers to any of them.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2

    Short'em High Says:
    182

    @bon jovi

    Don’t listen to @groundhog. He’s bought into the narrative. You’ll never get an answer out of him that differs much from status quo whatever it happens to be this year.

    From BoC website:
    http://www.bankofcanada.ca/about/corporate-governance/governing-legislation-and-processes/

    The Payment, Clearing and Settlement Act gives the Bank of Canada responsibility for the oversight of payments and other clearing and settlement systems in Canada, for the purpose of controlling systemic risk.

    The Governing Council’s main tool for implementing monetary policy is the target for the overnight rate. This rate is normally set on eight “fixed dates” per year. The Council arrives at its decisions about the rate by consensus, rather than by individual votes as is the case at some other central banks.

    And, to answer your question directly: No, it is not a political decision, but it ends up being that way. in theory the Bank of Canada governing body is not elected because it is supposed to be apolitical and impartial. It is supposed to make decisions that weigh cost and benefit to ALL Canadians.

    Unfortunately a vocal minority of politicans and academic apologists responsible to voters for the so called “good jobs” basically hijack monetary policy for their own ends. They want those few jobs to pay top dollar and the only way to subsidize this is to do it under the table by pushing the overnight rate down. This obviously works, because when they drum up these false fears about the end of the world and point to some words in an Economics text book, ordinary people run away in fear.

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    Jerry Boyle Says:
    183

    If you think the federal government has no control over the housing market, I’d say you’re half right.

    Governments can do a great job of inflating the bubble. (Thank-you CMHC.) They seem pretty helpless dealing with the downside, though.

    But hey, maybe Harper’s not just a sociopath — maybe he’s a sociopathic genius! I guess we’ll see if he has that soft landing perfectly calibrated.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 13

    Groundhog Says:
    184

    @Short’em High

    If you say there are simple answers to those questions, then I say to you you don’t know much at all.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 15

    @bon jovi

    Tough questions. Here’s a country ranking of public debt that may help with your first question.
    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html
    Canada is near 85%. Some research concludes that when a country nears 100% debt-to-GDP, it adversely affects its growth. Although the correlation is not clear.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 2

    @Jerry Boyle
    “Governments can do a great job of inflating the bubble.”

    I’m curious which of the following bubble-inflating forces you think governments could have quelled?
    1. The demographics of the Boomer trade-up & recreational-buying years, alongside their childrens’ household formation years.
    2. The commodity cycle http://i.imgur.com/YaqGQM8.png which is partly why so much foreign money flowed into our resource-based country, further collapsing our bond rates and inflating our assets.
    3. Or the debt cycle http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/60-year_Cycle.gif

    How well do you think you would have done in Flaherty or Carney’s position against these formidable & combined forces?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 3 Thumb down 10

    Anonymous Says:
    187

    “Wow, beautiful new house on Van West just listed:”

    I hope you are being sarcastic when you say beautiful. Why anyone would build a house like this I will never understand. Not only does it look ugly but it is a poor design for west coast weather and will end up rotting.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 10

    bon jovi Says:
    188

    Short’em High Says
    “Unfortunately a vocal minority of politicans and academic apologists responsible to voters for the so called “good jobs” basically hijack monetary policy for their own ends. ”

    Would you agree that this is happening in the rest of the other countries in the world as well: ECB, BOJ, BOE?

    And who benefits? Bay Street, Wall street? RE industry?
    And what is the end game? inflation, new currency?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    PUBLISHED! My 2013 Vancouver RE forecast (with list of bullish & bearish factors) was just published on The Epoch Times (Vancouver edition of an international Chinese newspaper) on Chinese New Year’s Eve. Just in time to kick off the Spring RE market!
    This is the link to the actual article (in Chinese)

    English translation see here

    * Hat tip to RE Analyst Ben Rabidoux for the sales/listings graphs. I did not expect them to include graphics (which I linked to) to appear in actual print!
    * An entire page was dedicated to this article (well the lower half was just ads. At least they were smart enough not to put a Condo ad beneath ;) )
    * This was a free submission (they actually approached me for my 2013 prediction); no remuneration was paid.

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    Short'em High Says:
    190

    bon jovi Says:
    February 10th, 2013 at 7:22 pm

    this is happening in the rest of the other countries in the world as well: ECB, BOJ, BOE?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTmfwklFM-M

    “I didn’t get a harumph outta that guy…”

    This issue was a factor in the recent Japanese election. Look at the Chinese, Australian, and Japanese equity indexes to see what happened. Money flowed out of fixed income in Japan and into equities that had room to move up.

    Presumably we will see a central bank rotation as they all head for the bottom.

    BoE officially targets only inflation, but we’ll see. Maybe Carney will do nothing in that job too – and gain genius accolades for his brand of uncertain conviction.

    I don’t believe in end games, so I can’t give you a grand conspiracy theory. All I can tell you is too keep your losses small and bet on the turns. All of these so called leaders don’t know any more than you do if you take it all in and think carefully about what it means your interests.

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    Anonymous Says:
    191

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    HAM Solo Says:
    192

    @ bon jovi

    1) How much more Consumer & Corporate & Government debt can increase? I know comparison to US but i want CND perspective.
    2) How long before interest rates should start rising? Is it that political decesion?
    3) Can anyone guess unemployment numbers when housing prices and economy start to deflate? Are we talking 10%, 20%, 25%? Why we should be better off then lets say Spain? Is it because of resources?

    1)What is the limit on consumer/corporate debt in Canada? The added complication is that so much of what one would normally consider consumer debt in Canada is actually government obligations (thanks CMHC! / CDIC!)from the point of view of credit support. So, while the US topped out at 170% of income … Canada could in theory move a little higher. However, given the government has put the brakes on growth in gov guaranteed mortgage debt, I’d argue we have hit the limit for now.

    2) How long before interest rates start rising? I think the next shoe to drop is Cdn interest rates to fall a little as the deflationary impact of a housing bust is figured out by the market. However if you see the C$ fall significantly, that will tend to drive the market-set rates higher as investors will want a higher coupon to compensate them for potential currency losses vs US$. My over/under for all that to play out … three years.

    3) I think the BC unemployment numbers could easily be in the high teens two years into a housing bust (we are at month 6). Once the downturn gets going we should start seeing Megaprojects take over as the most significant new employers in BC. Site C dam, various pipelines, the navy ships etc…all will have heavy government backing

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    193

    “How well do you think you would have done in Flaherty or Carney’s position against these formidable & combined forces?”

    As I’ve said before, the government has ample powers to hold RE prices down, regardless of any other factors

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 17

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    194

    Sorry for the premature entry. Listing in terms of increasing impact:

    1. Getting rid of programs such as RRSP home buyers plan or first time buyer grants.
    2. Shortening amortizations for insured mortgages. 20 years, 15 years, whatever.
    3. Imposing price caps for insured mortgages based in rental value or incomes.
    4. Limiting government mortgage insurance to first time purchasers only.
    5. Getting rid of government mortgage insurance altogether.
    6. Imposing draconian income tax on RE capital gains.
    7. Imposing a surtax on all mortgage lending.

    Even by the time the Feds got to #4 RE prices would be lower than they now are in the US.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 17

    […] or open houses have closed. I wonder how long they will keep up this rate of construction?” – LazyCanadian at VCI 8 Feb 2013 12:24pm, image posted […]

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Went to an open house yesterday. Didn’t talk to the realtor much other than when we were leaving and I asked her if there had been any offers. She said a couple, but they fell through due to financing. I said yea I’m not surprised, the price is pretty steep. She then kindly informed me that although the market was currently slow, the “investors have arrived” and she sees the market rising again in 2-3 months.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 22 Thumb down 16

    Anonymous Says:
    197

    I know 3 friends trying to sell thier house in Burnaby, Richmond and Point Grey for more than 8 months now. Many open houses, not a single offer. I sold my primary residence DT townhouse in May 2012, and 2 other investment condo’s in 2011 and now renting.

    They all know RE is going down in the coming years, hence, trying to get out, but they still don’t lower their price. I scratch my head sometimes, I guess greed takes over pure logic.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 15

    Finally Says:
    198

    I know 3 friends trying to sell thier house in Burnaby, Richmond and Point Grey for more than 8 months now. Many open houses, not a single offer. I sold my primary residence DT townhouse in May 2012, and 2 other investment condo’s in 2011 and now renting.

    They all know RE is going down in the coming years, hence, trying to get out, but they still don’t lower their price. I scratch my head sometimes, I guess greed takes over pure logic.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 16

    Anonymous Says:
    199

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    bullwhip29 Says:
    200

    FWIW, here are pics of Christy campaigning hard on the weekend. Confirmation of what I said previously (re. decision to make Family Day on Feb 11 to win over the Chinese community)
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/bcgovphotos

    and yes, here she is handing out red envelopes…
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/bcgovphotos/8462491626/in/photostream

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    Aleksey Says:
    201

    №196
    So what? I know ten families who rent and enjoy every minute on home rental.

    Also I know three families who bought and enjoyed every minute on home ownership before they decided to sell. Then it became a nightmare.

    It’s all about timing.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0

    “In this financial climate, people find themselves in positions where they have to sell,” said Henry’s husband, Terry, who moved his family to Alberta from B.C. several months ago, for better job opportunities.”

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/02/08/bc-renttoown.html

    really? people find themselves in positions where they have to sell? that’s not what we’ve been told by the experts, pretty sure everyone can just remove their listings and wait for better times

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    Anonymous Says:
    203

    “i know ten families who bought and enjoy every minute on home ownership.”

    I can’t say I know 10 families who have cashed out of home ownership and started renting but I know I did. I must say I enjoy every minute of renting (and having a few hundred grand in the bank). It is my first time being a renter and what I found is I like it better. Every month reading strata minutes and finding out new problems with the building was stressful and costly as an owner. Now I don’t read them and my landlord picks up the tab. And the flexibility knowing I can move anytime if I need a bigger place or decide I don’t like the building is nice. All for lower cost. What is not to like?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 30 Thumb down 18

    Anonymous Says:
    204

    “i know ten families who bought and enjoy every minute on home ownership.”

    I hope they enjoy it. It is costing them big time. They are currently losing $18,052 in equity every month. Don’t worry only 44% more to drop.

    http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html

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    Anonymous Says:
    206

    N: “Equity is neither here nor there if they don’t sell and they don’t plan to borrow against it. I know happy owners who don’t have a problem with prices going down, because it’s off their radar.”

    Just because it is off their radar doesn’t mean they wont care once they realize their net worth has evaporated. Most people who get cancer don’t have it on their radar either, but they care once they get it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 10

    Anonymous Says:
    207

    N: “If they are losing money because of the rent differential, that is another matter, but as far as equity goes, what’s true on the way up, is true on the way down.”

    Well we know every owner is losing money compared to renting if you include opportunity cost. There is no debating that.

    Yes what is true on the way up is true on the way down if you were an owner on the way up. The problem is many will only experience the way down because they got in or moved up during the bubble.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 18

    jack be nimble Says:
    208

    We almost bought in the Lower Mainland in ’07. We didn’t because we got cold feet after analysing the market and my job situation. Two years later I lost my job. I applied all over BC and there was nothing in my field avaliable.

    Fast foward. I found a great job in Calgary. We have a fantastic rental. 4 bdr/2 baths for only $1200.00 a month. Yes, in the NE, but who cares. It’s in a nice, quiet neighbourhood.

    Had I bought in ’07, I’d still be bleeding equity, which would defeat the purpose of buying. Either renting or buying at over inflated prices right now is throwing money away the same. Might as well find cheap rent and be happy. So many people I know who’ve bought in the last few years at very high prices talk about buying as the smartest decision they made as they’re not throwing money away on rent. Really? I ask…will they pay the house off on their lifetime? If not, what’s the point? Even worse, watch the market continue to erode. We have zero debt :-) Both vehicles paid off, no loans…and one of the best things…seeing how much it costs the landlord for maintainance and other costs on the house I rent. We’re very happy people :-)

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    jack be nimble Says:
    209

    Also, I love being right!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 18

    Anonymous Commentator Says:
    210

    It looks like a lot of realtors have a lot of time oh their hands to hang out at VCI. All today’s bearish comments have been voted down, some into foreclosure. The bulls are taking over VCI!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 25 Thumb down 10

    Girlbear Says:
    211

    #207

    Yes I noticed that also. Are they not supposed to be out selling houses over Chinese New Year?!?

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    Anonymous Says:
    212

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Girlbear Says:
    213

    There is a Bull attack on the blog! This of course only confirms what we bears are thinking…looks like there could be blood on the streets this Spring.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 39 Thumb down 8

    “although the market was currently slow, the “investors have arrived” and she sees the market rising again in 2-3 months.”

    HA HA HAH HA AH AH A HAHAH AHA HAHH AH!!!!

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    HAM Solo Says:
    215

    Nice to get the extra stat today … gives a bit of time for longer-term thinking over the day-to-day.

    As we watch this market coil in slightly tighter circles towards a bottom (and there will be a bottom eventually) it becomes more important to start thinking about how and why the bear might end.

    I think it is naive to think that the Minister of Finance and the BoC are any less than a couple of weeks behind in their understanding of where the market is compared to the leading lights here. And if you sat down with F or C and said to them, “do you think it would be a good idea if national residential real estate markets fell by 40%?” I’m pretty sure they would say “of course not.” And, even if a 40% correction still didn’t bring markets down to some kind of theoretically perfect fair value, I think they would still want to act to prop up a floor at a higher level.

    That being said, I doubt they realized how difficult it is going to be to prop up a massively over-built and over-owned market. Were we in some sort of pure capitalist/gold standard system, proprty prices might decline by 75% in value and flatline for a decade.

    But probably in about 6-9 months they are going to start trying. My guess of the policies we are going to get: 1) Some kind of statement by the BoC that s/t interest rates will not rise until 2016 at the earliest, 2) a program of maybe $75-$125B of unsterilized QE bond buying, focussed on GoC bonds intended to lower long-term rates which might be pressured by the falling currency that will result from correcting home prices and weak balance of payments from energy pricce drops; 3) If it gets really bad, and a federal election starts looming, the next step might be QE focussed on provincial gov’t bonds and MAYBE even on some uninsured mortgage pools.

    On the goverment side, I expect there will be some move to roll forward the max CMHC loan amortization from 25 to 30 years, but most of the other rule tightenings will be unchanged. Maybe they go to mortgage interest deductibility or some other prop job.

    All together, I doubt we get a new housing boom out of these, but they will probably serve to stabilize the average home price above where it “should” land.

    More importantly, these actions ought to ignite speculative bubbles in asset classes with nothing to do with Cdn housing. My money is on Cdn technology companies, junior gold/silver miners, and successful concept stocks whose end-demand has nothing to do with the Canadian consumer.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 23 Thumb down 4

    renterbychoice Says:
    216

    I don’t wish the bulls ill-will, I say congratulations and well-done to those who made a killing on real estate. But, I just don’t understand why they need to be so insulting and defensive about my choice to be a renter? Why do they care? I have chosen a lifestyle that gives me maximum freedom and stress-free living. I rent a big and comfortable one bedroom apt on the west side for $1,050 per month. We have even painted it and decorated it exactly as we wanted (we just return it to white when we leave- no need to buy if you want to decorate!). Most importantly, only one quarter of one paycheque goes to living costs – rent and utilities. Hubby and I easily save $3,500 per month and don’t think twice about going out for dinner or going on vacation or whatever. Our life is simple and stress-free because we are debt-slaves to no one. I love knowing each paycheque belongs to me, and I don’t live in fear of illness or job loss because I have a large growing savings buffer. Honestly, the most difficult part of being a renter is having to defend my choice to bulls who seem so keen to get me to sign up to hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt to live in the same neighbourhood I live in now!

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    #188 was obviously one of my ‘fans’ from other forums.
    I apologize for bringing the pollution over.

    re: the ‘bull attacks’, probably just some bored realtors using multiple computers in the realty office to downvote. pretty sad.

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    Anyone know what 325 e Woodstock recently sold for?

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    ArthurFonzarelli Says:
    219

    Went to some opens yesterday for first time in 4 years – townhouses in N Van. Pretty quiet. Big difference in value between properties… some ridiculous expectations out there and a few that don’t seem much more expensive than comparables around 2008 I would think. Mostly things seemed really over priced imho. Seeing them in person brings some ugly reality to expectations. Like $400/sqft for beat up depressing ’70s Townhouse-landia style moss-catcher stuff. Dumps by Cap Uni for over $500k. Yet brand new (and often price reduced) new builds for same price or a bit more and some in better areas.

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    Short'em High Says:
    220

    Finally Says:
    February 11th, 2013 at 7:13 am

    friends trying to sell thier house in Burnaby, Richmond and Point Grey for more than 8 months now. Many open houses, not a single offer … greed takes over pure logic.

    “Greed, for lack of a better word, is good.”

    I wonder though. Are they actually greedy of wealth or greedy of ego?

    It’s the toughest thing in the world to admit you are wrong and on top of that take a loss as you and yours see it. After all, it’s not your house that is substandard. You’ve done everything right and then some. It’s renovated, on the right street, and has Feng shui up the yingyang. Something else must be wrong. The realtor isn’t presenting it right or the asking price is too low…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    Achilles HELOC Says:
    221

    First they ignore you

    Then they laugh at you

    Then they fight you

    Then you win

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 32 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    222

    HAM Solo: Keep in mind the federal government has been tightening to reduce household debt. I doubt they will change course until household debt has been reduced significantly. They knew that would take a big toll on housing. I don’t see them reversing policy anytime soon. Otherwise they wouldn’t have bothered tightening in the first place. They knew what the result was going to be and feel politically secure enough at this point to do it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0

    Not much of a name... Says:
    223

    @HAM Solo

    Were we in some sort of pure capitalist/gold standard system, proprty prices might decline by 75% in value and flatline for a decade.

    If this were the case, I highly doubt that prices would be where they are today. There would be no need for such a precipitous drop.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    HAM Solo Says:
    224

    @ anon

    I agree the feds would like to reduce consumer debt, but taking steps (not yet, but let’s say by October) to shore up home prices won’t necessarily work quickly and won’t necessarily re-ignite a boom in consumer borrowing.

    As in the US, a lot of the consumer “de-leverging” is not going to come from consumer thrift, it will come from bankruptcies and foreclosures.

    Think of where the Canadian employment market is going to be in Q4 with virtually zero housing construction going on in BC, Quebec, and large parts of Ontario, plus oil sands jobs evaporarting. We are going to be seeing lots of Johnny HELOCs giving up the ghost. Unemployment trending into double digits and cries going out that “something has to be done.”. And something will be done. Voters care about jobs more than they care about debt ratios.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    “Yes what is true on the way up is true on the way down if you were an owner on the way up. The problem is many will only experience the way down because they got in or moved up during the bubble.”

    That’s true, but that’s not actually what I was getting at. What I meant was that we, on this blog, ought to use the same analytic standards in both cases. We routinely tell people that the paper equity they have in their houses, due to appreciation, doesn’t count until they actually sell. And that is true. I am just suggesting that the paper losses they have in their houses likewise don’t count until they sell. Not surprisingly, that suggestion got 20 down votes.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 3

    Short'em High Says:
    226

    N Says:
    February 11th, 2013 at 1:25 pm
    … I am just suggesting that the paper losses they have in their houses likewise don’t count until they sell.

    Not unless they paid cash, will never HELOC, and are willing to wait 40(?) years for prices to come back.

    Same up as down is false unless they are fabulously cash rich and don’t care about what an ordinary person considers a lifetime of savings evaporating for the privilege of owning instead of renting.

    Do those that say this have the real wealth or a job that is absolutely secure under all possible economic conditions? Or are they just saying something soothing to comfort the doomed patient?

    “Same up as down” is extraordinarly bad advice for most people. If the equity exists today, the best advice is to sell and realize the equity before it evaporates.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 3

    >>“Same up as down” is extraordinarly bad advice for most people. If the equity exists today, the best advice is to sell and realize the equity before it evaporates.<<

    It's not advice to owners (who obviously should sell). It is advice to commentors such as ourselves. If we use a different set of glasses depending on how we feel about the situation, we will never see the landscape clearly.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 5

    mikemcgoo Says:
    228

    Ham Solo – great post re. #212.

    Only point I will disagree with is that our currency is far too thinly traded to embark on QE policies the way they have done in the US. The loonie would drop sharply and inflation for consumer good would scream higher causing a wave of consumer defaults and significant stress in our credit markets.

    Re-opening the door to rich foreigners with illegally earned money is the most effective way to support housing prices short term.

    I sincerely hope they do no puruse this strategy. The next generation and our cities need housing prices to better reflect underlying incomes to support new household formation and preseve the great Canadian culture we have all helped build.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    229

    N: “I am just suggesting that the paper losses they have in their houses likewise don’t count until they sell. Not surprisingly, that suggestion got 20 down votes.”

    I know what you are saying. I am still holding stock certificates for Nortel I paid 500K for in 1999. Since I have not sold it is only a paper loss so I am still planning a nice retirement.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    230

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 18

    Girlbear Says:
    231

    Little extra time today. Looked through a lot of westside SFHs on MLS. So strange to see so many $2mill+ homes with hardly any furnishings. Maybe a kitchen table and a few chairs, and a bed on the floor in the main BR is not unusual to see.
    Also my convos with friends who are westside realtors over the past few months (I know a few, hey everyone wanted to be a RE agent for a while it seems) are not good (for them). Telling me they are cutting spending budgets and dipping into savings now to keep things going.

    I think this is going to be worse than we think by spring.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 41 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    232

    “I don’t wish the bulls ill-will, I say congratulations and well-done to those who made a killing on real estate.”

    The people who made a killing are bears. Gotta sell to make a killing right?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 45 Thumb down 3

    SaintPatrick Says:
    233

    Re: Chinese sisters. Cursory google search turns up:

    Amanda Lee
    LinkedIn profile

    Administrative Assistant
    MAC Marketing Solutions

    Privately Held; 51-200 employees; Real Estate industry

    November 2011 – Present (1 year 4 months) Maddox Downtown

    Could just be coincidence, but fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Now load your snakes back up on the yellow helicopters and get off my damn island.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 72 Thumb down 0

    mclovin mclovin Says:
    234

    it`s hilarious that a bunch of have-not give financial advise to “save others` equities “.

    What makes you think that people here are “have not’s”?

    I would argue that most people here have more money than the average population. Furthermore, just because many of us are bearish on Vancouver real estate doesn’t mean we have other assets or even real estate outside of Vancouver.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 0

    Re #230 SaintPatrick:

    Sorry what’s the story about the chinese sisters / amanda lee?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    mclovin mclovin Says:
    236

    N:”I am just suggesting that the paper losses they have in their houses likewise don’t count until they sell. Not surprisingly, that suggestion got 20 down votes.”

    I know where you are going on this but I have a different take. On the way up people have equity and options. They can re-fin, buy more properties, sell. On the way down once they are underwater they have no options and are trapped in their properties. They can’t sell as they owe more than its worth. As a result they can’t move for job opportunities or move up the ladder. They really are screwed so it is very different on the way down than on the way up.

    This hard lesson will be felt by many people in the years to come.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    237

    @SaintPatrick

    Wow good find! How surprising, more advertisement presented as news from the RE industry.

    Too much of a coincidence. I noticed in the news article they only mentioned her sister Chris Lee, it was probably news written by MAC and they tried to hide the connection with Amanda Lee.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    238

    @gokou3

    Its in reference to this video that was on the news Friday evening.

    http://bc.ctvnews.ca/year-of-the-snake-nets-condo-sales-developers-1.1150505#ixzz2KSb2w75h

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

    mclovin mclovin Says:
    239

    I know many here dislike Garth but its well worth the read today. Spot on.

    http://www.greaterfool.ca/

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 17

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 15

    HAM Solo Says:
    242

    @ Mike

    Did you realize that the BoC has just been completing a $25B QE program that started in the fall? Completely unsterilized, too. In theory this was all in the aid of creating a “liquidity buffer.” It was highlighted in the Feds 2011 budget, but the timing of the purchases is a mystery to me … maybe put it up to Carney going out with a bang.

    Unfortunately, I think there is plenty of capacity for the BoC to buy $125B of C$ paper without rocking the currency. All they will need to do is buy up all the extra GoC paper that will no doubt need to be issued as the economy rolls into a housing-led recession later this year. That figure is about a per capita run-rate equivalent to what the Americans started doing in 2009.

    Here’s the mechanics: Gov’t goes to the market with more bonds to finance the ‘surprise’ deficits, BoC prints up some electronic cash to buy the bonds and hits the offer. Were it not for the need to ensure that some Bay St friends of the PTB took their cut, the BoC could just as easily print up truckloads of $100 bills and send them out across the country to pay the government’s bills.

    You might think that this would cause inflation. And measured in gold, it probably will, but the deflationary effect of a collapsing housing bubble will be so great that it may not be as noticeable as you’d think. Watch for fresh squeezed orange juice to seem a lot more expensive, though. On the bright side, getting your hoo-hah waxed in Langley just might go down in price.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

    Surrey is the next Brooklyn, according to the Vancouver sun:

    “If you think it is far-fetched to compare Surrey to Brooklyn — that born-again and ultra-trendy New York City suburb that has become synonymous with hipster funk and gentrification — think again…Both cities have also sloughed off their tarnished reputations — having long been spurned by urban elites for being the repository of crime and the low-income, uneducated, working-class masses — and are embracing rejuvenation and respectability with a new middle-class ethos.”

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Shelley+Fralic+Vancouver+Surrey+Name+suburb/7949995/story.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    245

    “. I am just suggesting that the paper losses they have in their houses likewise don’t count until they sell. ”

    What does count is the excess of ownership costs over rental value every month – and every person who has a “paper loss”, i.e. paid more than today’s market price, is experiencing this. Plus everyone who buys or has bought at today’s market price and down to a fair amount lower.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    Wakeup call Says:
    246

    Good time foe Carney to flee…just after having blown all his ammo and Canada threatened by recession. Upward pressure on US rates won’t allow the BoC to cut even if there was any ammo left.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    phiscal. Says:
    247

    Q: “I just want to sell shirts to do with the City of Surrey, my kind of town,” said the longtime resident of one of Canada’s fastest growing cities. “I love Surrey, it’s entertaining, it’s dark, it’s a little bit dangerous, it’s growing and it’s dynamic.”

    His shirts, one which features a gun in place of the buildings on the city’s logo, are intended to be tongue-in-cheek political commentary with an anti-gang message in a city where five gangsters were shot dead in January.

    http://metronews.ca/news/vancouver/539930/surrey-up-in-arms-over-the-future-dies-here-spoof-hoodies/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Short'em High Says:
    248

    @Q Surrey East River

    …That’s probably just a dead body, son. See, when the mob kills someone, they throw the body in the river…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hK3pBcY3k0

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    “What does count is the excess of ownership costs over rental value every month”

    And that is exactly what I said in my original post. To quote myself, “If they are losing money because of the rent differential, that is another matter, but as far as equity goes, what’s true on the way up, is true on the way down.”

    McLovin has a point when he mentions that, for people who have to sell, the loss of equity is a problem. But then again, that’s my point, the problem comes when you sell, not when the theoretical equity changes.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 13

    Short'em High Says:
    250

    @N

    The problem, and why are voted down, is that you assume that if you don’t have to sell today, you won’t HAVE TO SELL in the future.

    Who is your target audience exactly?

    The forum perceives your remarks simply as dense/dunce. You want to believe that the equity dollars in a property are somehow the same as liquid cash dollars because you don’t close the position. They are not. Even Warren Buffet has a limited amount of capital. Once the equity is gone from the property, it is just a memory. If you ever need that money you will miss it.

    How can you not understand this? Is it because you are married to your home equity and want to believe that you somehow shouldn’t sell now?

    I can assure you, if you can sell with positive equity today, you should sell now and stop searching around for some reason why your situation is different. You situation is not different.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 32 Thumb down 3

    Thanks Groundhog #235. In return, I urge you to check out the pretty public facebook profile of Amanda Lee of MAC Marketing:

    http://www.facebook.com/sweety.amanda/photos_stream

    I think this Amanda looks quite the same as the one interviewed by CTV.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 0

    No Noise Says:
    252

    If it’s true, the Lee sisters CNY Vancouver condo/RE marketing conspiracy, will be a big big story and indicative of insider scams that go on, and have been going on, for years and years in Vancouver.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 1

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 15

    Groundhog Says:
    254

    @No Noise

    I wish, unfortunately this has gone on a few times. I remember last spring there was a news clip about people clamoring to buy presales in Surrey, and they interviewed someone with “Real Estate Investor” headlined under them. Turned out they were a RE marketer… And then of course the helicopter story.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    @No Noise

    but you have to admit she is hootie..but why they all end up with ugly boyfriends is beyond me

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 6

    Yup its true Says:
    256

    RE the Lee sisters, Amanda works for Mac Marketing Solutions, we all need to voice are disgust towards the crtc for letting the msn fabricate such lies, man are they ever desperate, real estate is really going to crash this year no doubt about it, I’m going to call Mac and ask for Amanda tommorrow and everyday until the truth is admitted, no offence to hotty Amanda

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 2

    No Noise Says:
    257

    If the Lee sisters marketing scam is true I’d like to see that story as a thread here on VCI and I’m sure VMD wouldn’t mind sharing it with some interested listeners over on the chinese blogs ;) The quicker the story gets out the more lemming RE investors we can save a world of pain before their snaky CNY RE deals close..

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 1

    Girlbear Says:
    258

    Call Cam McNeil directly. Don’t bother the poor girl. She was acting on orders from her boss. Or you can find him at his lavish westside home ;)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    259

    No Noise: “If it’s true, the Lee sisters CNY Vancouver condo/RE marketing conspiracy, will be a big big story and indicative of insider scams that go on, and have been going on, for years and years in Vancouver.”

    The whole HAM thing was fabricated and a marketing ploy right from the start. The vast majority of Chinese buyers were locals using equity in their homes to speculate. I am surprised how many people around here fell for it. Someone needs to call CTV out on this one. Either they are in bed with the marketers making infomercials (illegal) or their reporters and produces are so dense they should be canned.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    260

    Girlbear: “Don’t bother the poor girl. She was acting on orders from her boss. ”

    The ‘poor girl’ is a fraud trying to con people. She knew what she was doing and deserves what she is going to get.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 4

    CTV BC Infomercial Nondisclosure Says:
    261

    How do I contact the local news departments with a news tip?

    TEL: 604-662-6801
    FAX: (604) 662-6878
    Send us your stories and news tips to cbcnewsvancouver@cbc.ca
    Send us your photos and videos

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    262

    “Surrey is the next Brooklyn, according to the Vancouver sun:”

    LOL last year Whalley was the next Yaletown. Now Surrey is Brooklyn. Brooklyn is one bridge away from Manhattan where Surrey is one bridge away from Coquitlam.

    I think if you were to try to find an area that closest to Brooklyn in Metro Vancouver you might pick certain areas of east van. Surrey is more like Dharavi.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/world/06/dharavi_slum/html/dharavi_slum_intro.stm

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    263

    Is there a regulatory body it can be reported to? Dont know if CRTC handles this type of complaint.

    I dont think complaining to CTV will do much.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 4

    Girlbear Says:
    264

    #257

    As the DEA does with the drug thugs. Don’t bother with the pawn, go for the big guy behind the scheme…not the one who is probably making $30k a year. Go for the one who “was” making $1mill+ a year…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    CTV BC Infomercial Nondisclosure Says:
    265

    @Groundhog260

    Yes, but a tip to >>CBC<< will spark some interest.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 0

    You can’t really blame the Lee sisters and MAC Marketing. You gotta give them full credit for imagination and creativity! It’s really the inept local MSM that is showing its true colors! Don’t these guys do any background fact checking or verify the credibility of their stories? They are so easily manipulated. What a bunch of clowns! They probably received their journalism credentials in a Kinder Surprise Egg.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 5

    Anonymous Says:
    267

    “You can’t really blame the Lee sisters and MAC Marketing.”

    Yes you can. The news media may be incompetent but Mac and the sisters are the frauds. Their motives were planned and deliberate. Real Estate Whoooores and nothing more.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    Amanda is definitely a hottie.Too bad she’s famous for the wrong reason.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

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