FFFA! Optimism! Borrowing! Sex!

Hey! You made it to another weekend, and you know what that means? Its time for another Friday Free-for-all, our open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-BCREA Optimistic
-Borrowing back to troubling levels
-Experts predict bubble will remain
-Summary of that video
-Sorry about the sex
-Buy a house now?
-Construction price fixing?
-Stratify more basements!
-Bye bye best buy
-Toronto condo sales fall 47%

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

 

135 Responses to “FFFA! Optimism! Borrowing! Sex!”

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    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 37 Thumb down 28

    Anonymous Says:
    2

    This is such a sleazy story and the BC Liberals have their fingers all over it. Why is the vice-resident of the BC Liberal Party working and lobbying for a Chinese fraudster?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/chinas-corruption-crackdown-hones-in-on-bc-pulp-mill/article8097064/

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    3

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 48

    Anonymous Says:
    4

    …Why is the vice-resident of the BC Liberal Party working and lobbying for a Chinese fraudster?…..

    Errr, cause the job pays well?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 4

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 47

    Blast From The Past Says:
    6

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 42

    Apparently sex and condo open houses is a real problem.

    http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/the-worst-thing-thats-ever-happened/8371

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 5

    Real Paul Says:
    8

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 43

    Anonymous Says:
    9

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 38

    Larry’s numbers out. Some thoughts.

    I was expecting the avg. price increase especially in detached. There were about 5 seriously high priced homes that moved in the beginning of the year, all of which were large discounts off the original ask. I.e., one of Vancouvers most well known and longest serving businessman and philanthropists sold their house in Point Grey this week but for $6M less than asking after a while on the market. Take away the top 5 transactions, and our average was actually down. However – I am seeing some slowdown in HPI decreases. I think we will still be down this month, especially in Richmond. However, Van-West is now hitting bottom as the floor for 33×120 lot in decent area is holding firm above 1.5M. It’s just the top-end over $2.5M that we are seeing large acceptances of decreases in price.

    Anyhow – let’s see where REBGV comes in . The Avg is up but I am seeing decrease of at least 1% in Apartments and perhaps .5% in detached just for the month. Look at the past 12 months, lots of variability in avg but a constant decrease in HPI.

    I know we like to knock HPI due to its voodoo-like nature but it has been a reasonable barometer over the past 6-12 months.

    Let’s see how it is spun now. . .

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 42 Thumb down 2

    @yvr2zrh Says:
    11

    who’s larry?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2

    oneangryslav2 Says:
    12

    “who’s Larry?” http://www.yattermatters.com/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2

    Sidelines Says:
    14

    V984005 – detached home in Mount Pleasant. Was $700k, now price change to $770k(!). Just curious what the strategy might be here, given the state of the market? I don’t get it. Perhaps the more clever than me out in the blogosphere would know? Thanks in advance, from an easily-confused bear!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    15

    Re. #6

    I guess all those thumbs down are people who don’t like to be reminded how phenomenally wrong patriotz has been in the past?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 19

    From Larry’s Stats.

    I want to get this out before the Bulls call the bottom

    Detached
    January 13 – $1,152,851
    January 12 – $1,145,956
    January 11 – $1,144,537

    2 yr return +0.07
    2 yr. return after inflation -4.2%

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 3

    “I guess all those thumbs down are people who don’t like to be reminded how phenomenally wrong patriotz has been in the past?”

    Who cares if he’s been wrong? His opinion is just as valid or not valid as anyone else’s. He’s just another poster here. He brings a lot of great information to share here and is a valued member of this community.At least he posts his predications for all to see unlike the Bulls who simply say real estate always goes up.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 40 Thumb down 6

    Ludvig von Mises Says:
    18

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 14

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    19

    “I guess all those thumbs down are people who don’t like to be reminded how phenomenally wrong patriotz has been in the past?”

    About what? The bear case is based on the premise that buying cannot become cheaper than renting without a substantial decline in prices. As long as we’re right about that, we’re winning.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 65 Thumb down 7

    @Sidelines Says:
    20

    “Just curious what the strategy might be here, given the state of the market”

    they don’t want to just retire, they want to retire AND a new BMW.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE Says:
    21

    Another warning that int rates could jump dramatically.
    This time from Charles Ortel of Newport Value Partners.
    The bandwagon is starting to get crowded.

    With bond yields rising, it’s just a matter until mortgage rates go up and leaveraged homeowners start to sweat.
    We will probably get enough of a warning to suck in a few more idiots trying to get in before that happens. But higher mortgage rates will eventually grease the skids of our biggest housing bust since 1982.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 1

    Many Franks Says:
    22

    @Ludvig von Mises: “I wouldn’t bet on it” is hardly a bottom call. But anyway, a bottom with MOI > 10 would represent a clear break with Jesse’s MOI-to-HoH predictor; unless that correlation breaks we’re in for a few more months of decline.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    YVR: Isn’t that “firm” floor of 1.5m for lots supported by the prospect of building within a year and selling a top-end house for 2.5m-3m? So, if sales are slowing and prices falling at the top end, how long can that floor for lots remain firm? Also, the blogs have reported sales of some lots (granted on busier streets) for well under 1.5m; can you be more specific about where that 1.5m figure still holds up?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    RealityCheck Says:
    24

    Surrey Lots for SFD have had a price floor under them ever since the slowdown. Tear down ranchers haven’t budged in price either.

    High end homes have seen prices come down. But that doesn’t do any good for people trying to enter the sfd market for the first time.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 6

    RealityCheck Says:
    25

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 18

    Burbs Boy Says:
    26

    Reality Check – that is the correct way to assess inflation. No different than you would for comparing piss poor returns on a GIC or CSB. Real negative returns for many investments out there.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    27

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 16

    Landbaron Says:
    28

    #27 Anonymous

    From what I read, patriotz said that prices will be flat after the Olympics for ‘several’ years and then drop after that.

    Seems to me that is exactly what is happening!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 2

    Here’s a blog that went up since long before the US RE crash, and has proven its naysayers wrong time and again.

    The latest entry? “World’s Largest Housing Bubble Is Popping… In Canada?”
    http://housingdoom.com/2013/02/01/worlds-largest-housing-bubble-is-popping-in-canada/

    Check out the embedded graph (from The Economist) on how over-valued prices are compared to rent, around the world. WE’RE NUMBER ONE! We even beat out Hong Kong and Singapore, which have just a *little* less land per capita than we do. Before the Vancouver MSM goes and brags about it, they should know this is not a good thing for RE prices…

    And before anybody knocks the title of the site as sensationalist, keep it mind that the title was/is dead on — What US RE has been through in since 2007 has been housing doom.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 2

    quick question re: fixed rates going up,
    If Canadian economy deteriorates this year, dragging the stock market down with it, the 5-yr bond yield will be pressured to drop lower due to higher demand for bonds? (Unless Canada is threatened with a ratings downgrade?). Thx.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    31

    @VMD

    Generally when the economy starts deterioration, bond yields will fall. However, if the economy deteriorates to the point that sovereign credit risk emerges, or its expected that our dollar is to decline further, yields will rise.

    In all likelihood if Canada goes into a recession right now, bond yields will fall… But if it gets as ugly as some of the European countries (which I don’t think it will, but who knows for sure??) then yields could rise.

    If large credit risks emerge in the banks as well, their spreads could rise which would cause mortgage rates to rise.

    Hope this helps, there’s no clear-cut answer to the question, there are many competing variables.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    32

    VMD:”If Canadian economy deteriorates this year, dragging the stock market down with it, the 5-yr bond yield will be pressured to drop lower due to higher demand for bonds?”

    The banks are the only significant sector on the TSX that will get dragged down with the Canadian economy. Other sectors like resources are dependent on the world economy. As far as Canadian bond rates go they will follow the US regardless of what the Canadian economy does. So we could have a tanking Canadian economy due to a housing bust but still have higher bond rates and a strong TSX if the world economy is doing well.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 4

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    33

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 22

    Wakeup call Says:
    34

    Good response Groundhog.
    You have nicely covered the basics.

    However, one thing that we should keep in mind is that those low rates were a desperate emergency attempt to get out of the 2008 financial disaster by the FED pumping unprecedented amounts of money into the system that the rest of the world was forced to follow. It was not intended as long term monetary policy. The reversion back to the norm has only been delayed by the failure of the US economy to recover.

    Powerfull countries like the US pretty much set the trend for smaller countries to follow. With Canada being so dependent on the US, I would not expect the BOC to be able to call the shots on our int rates. It is also possible for central banks to become less effective if/when the private sector looses confidence and decides to go in it’s own direction as the bond market seems to be doing now.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    @ Sidelines 14

    They might have wanted more than 770 originally but were trying to generate a bidding war.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    Patiently Waiting Says:
    36

    So Coquitlam rents have risen at almost four times the rate of family income. Also, the rental stock is now older and often in bad condition.

    “If council is to have a beneficial effect on housing affordability in the next decade, and I strenuously hope that we will have a beneficial effect on it, almost all of that effect will be in zoning, in land-use policies and in reducing the land costs per door,” Mayor Richard Stewart said.

    Along with the long list of proposed changes came a grim snapshot of several economic indicators: since 1991 the median household income has risen by 23 per cent, while average rents have increased 89 per cent. Dwelling costs, on the other hand, have jumped by 200 per cent.

    Further stats go on to suggest that 26 per cent of all households – roughly 10,000 – spend more than 30 per cent of their income on housing.

    Read more: http://www.thenownews.com/business/Coquitlam+explores+affordable+housing/7904249/story.html#ixzz2JhKSWzXR

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    37

    ” the median household income has risen by 23 per cent, while average rents have increased 89 per cent. ”

    Stop right there. First of all comparing median of one thing to average of something else is bogus (the Bill Gates effect). They should just look at benchmark rental properties over the same period.

    Second rents are determined by the regional rental market and there’s not a lot Coquitlam can do to change total supply and demand, assuming there is a problem in the first place.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 5

    vancouverguy Says:
    38

    “In all likelihood if Canada goes into a recession right now, bond yields will fall… But if it gets as ugly as some of the European countries (which I don’t think it will, but who knows for sure??) then yields could rise.”

    In contrast to the Euro members who ran into trouble, Canada has its own currency. Yields in Canada may rise in the future, but it won’t be for the same reason as Greece.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    How did Rick Mercer’s Flaherty’s Mixtures skit NOT make the FFFA? http://www.cbc.ca/player/Shows/Shows/The+Rick+Mercer+Report/ID/2330519596/

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 1

    Can’t help but notice a lot of bankruptcy debt restructuring commercials on the radio here in Vancouver, gonna be busy business the next few years

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    41

    Beat me to it! Watch it on the big screen at 8:30 tonight.

    Rick gets it!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    New Listings 302
    Price Changes 61
    Sold Listings 78
    TI:13930

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 131 Thumb down 1

    Hey VCI, thanks for the nod. And on a 300+ listings day too! :)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    44

    @vancouverguy

    “In contrast to the Euro members who ran into trouble, Canada has its own currency. Yields in Canada may rise in the future, but it won’t be for the same reason as Greece.”

    Yes, the Euro has been a complicating factor, but having one’s own currency doesn’t eliminate a country from the risk of rising interest rates or facing the same issues as Greece. As I said, I don’t think Canada is going to be in that position in the foreseeable future, but take a look at the long history of financial crises and you’ll notice that having the capability to print your own currency doesn’t help much.

    There are, today, countries with their own currencies and central banks that can’t keep interest rates low.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    bon jovi Says:
    45

    we are OK until we have increase production of Oil. Once we reach peak in Canada, everything false apart.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2

    CanuckDownUnder Says:
    46

    I have to say I’m developing some serious market envy Vancouver.

    According to the three private data providers Sydney real estate prices are back to an all-time high. The government numbers come out on Tuesday, if they have prices going up by 1.2 per cent or more in Q4 2012 then they will be showing a new peak as well. All those interest rate cuts must be having something of an impact.

    The next couple of years should be interesting, if a nice spread develops between the Aussie and Canadian markets and the AUD/CAD ratio stays in our favour it will be very tempting to bring our war chest back to Canada.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3

    vancouverguy Says:
    47

    “There are, today, countries with their own currencies and central banks that can’t keep interest rates low.”

    Of course there are. Bond yields are based on what bond buyers demand as a return. One of those risks is the risk of default, which is quite low in a country with its own currency. However, if market participants perceive other risks, such as inflationary risk, then yields will rise regardless.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Looks like two nk parties in February! Bonus!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    49

    @Vancouverguy

    FYI if you’re interested:
    http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/51_This_Time_Is_Different_SHORT.pdf

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    vancouverguy Says:
    50

    @groundhog

    Enjoyed the paper – thanks! Default can and has occurred in many countries, including those with control over their currency. However, a country with a sovereign currency would be more likely to default through inflation. This is highlighted in section VI of the study.

    The authors write “Money creation and interest costs on debt all enter the government’s budget constraint and, in a funding crisis, a sovereign will typically grab from any and all sources.”

    They also add that having a “printing press” for currency significantly enhances the ability to do so. “there is no question that the advent of the printing press cranked inflation up to a whole new level” (page 32).

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    51

    Glad you enjoyed it. Maybe read the book if you get a chance
    http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640

    Nothing you said is wrong, but we were talking about interest rates. When it gets to the point that the government is defaulting through inflation, their interest rates are going to be very high.

    The point is, just because a government has the ability to print money, doesn’t mean they can avoid defaulting and/or high interest rates. I don’t think there’s really much to debate on the matter.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

    Whistler foreclosures….lots of em….some good deals

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

    Where do you find the whistler foreclosure?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Show Me The Number Says:
    54

    Special investigation: How high-risk mortgages crept north

    This article is from four years ago. It detailed the intense lobbying by US companies to open up the mortgage insurance industry in Canada.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    southseacompany Says:
    55

    “Home sales way down in Greater Victoria” CTV News Victoria,

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt3oAMKdHpQ

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    south, that’s a big story, Victoria has been weak for a few years now in net, but has been getting progressively worse. This January saw MOI above 13. That’s a long way to drop to evoke a strong spring…

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 0

    Global just interviewed another hairy rodent expert. This time regarding how long winter will last. They claimed he was an authority on the subject but appears to spend most of his time sleeping and has virtually no clue about what is going on in the world outside of his burrow.

    Anyway, according to this expert, winter just doesn’t go away on it’s own. It needs some unforeseen shock like rising temperatures. He also indicated that we shouldn’t get our hopes up – apparently winter will be with us for a long time in Vancouver as all of the snowflakes want to come here.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 44 Thumb down 1

    Patiently Waiting Says:
    58

    Anyone care to guess the Masters degree of that guy who stabbed all those people in the West End? Sadly, this city attracts the biggest douchebags on the planet.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    No Noise Says:
    59

    @58 Patiently Waiting

    yes I saw – looks like a Masters in Real Estate, consultant w PNB Paribas? Crazy that the person is semi-learned, crazy what happened. Possibly another of the ever-more commonly seen symptoms of laissez-faire capitalism as vehemenently promoted by Ayn Rand, instituted by Thatcher/Reagan, and continued by Rand’s disciple Alan Greenspan and after 30 years has resulted in seperation between rich and poor we havent seen since the 20′s – its every person for themself out there with no safety net for those who fall by the wayside for mental reasons or otherwise – just look at all the mass shootings in the USA. The system is overdue for a major change. I would never ever recommend communism or fascism (before someone plays that card) – just please vote wisely.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 19

    Groundhog Says:
    60

    @No Noise

    I just figured he had enough of the RE market here and went insane.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2

    No Noise Says:
    61

    @60 Groundhog

    HAHAHAHAHA – Occam’s razor would agree

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 3

    Early spring watch for RE prices to drop like seagulls poo, gonna be a brutal year

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    No Noise Says:
    63

    I know I’m getting way off topic here but there used to be a tax base large enough (or willing enough) to support the mentally ill (Riverview, etc, etc). Now they are assessed and quickly released because there’s no where to keep them at least until their and the safety of the public can be properly assessed. A few months ago, this person sought help through police only to be quickly released from hospital back on the streets where he ends up attacking 3 women.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Hospital+reviews+treatment+accused+attacks+three+women/7677224/story.html

    Availability of street drugs is a huge factor as well I’m sure but a whole nother story.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 5

    Appreciate the posts about the likelyhood of higher int and mortgage rates.

    A good riminder why our market recovered in 2009 after the near death experience in 2008. How the hell could it not have recovered with a 3 point drop in mort rates, that has occasionally been dubbed “free money”

    Unfortunately, that drove prices to levels of insanity that only began to be questioned a year ago. There is no white knight or cavalry to the rescue this time, and central banks have depleted their arsenal.

    There was an interesting comment posted a week ago regarding quantitative versus qualitative reasoning. However informative and valuable all the stats are, I think our expectations are too focused on market performance over the last few years although fundamentals have changed dramatically. The mere fact that there is not one single probability that can reverse the market trend makes me think a crash is unavoidable.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    65

    Patiently Waiting: “since 1991 the median household income has risen by 23 per cent, while average rents have increased 89 per cent.”

    There is no way rents have went up 89% for the same property. A search on Craigs List shows lots of basement suites available in Coquitlam for $600 and a 3 bedroom top floor of a house for $1400. That is pretty close to what you would pay in 1991 for the same place. For rents to have risen 89% that would mean you could have rented a basement suite in 1991 for $310 and a top floor of a house for $740. Didn’t happen. There have been lots of higher end condos built in Coquitlam so maybe that skews the average rent but they are not comparing apples to apples.

    On the wages minimum wage was around $6.50 per hour in 1991 and today it is $10.25 per hour. That is a 57% increase in wages for the low wage earners. I wonder if household incomes are effected by higher home ownership rates. For example in the past a Starbucks barrista would live with their parents. Today they own their own condo which creates a new household with a low income.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    66

    “Global just interviewed another hairy rodent”

    Was Tsur on again?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    67

    NoNoise:”I know I’m getting way off topic here but there used to be a tax base large enough (or willing enough) to support the mentally ill (Riverview, etc, etc). Now they are assessed and quickly released because there’s no where to keep them at least until their and the safety of the public can be properly assessed.”

    You do know it was the NDP government that closed Riverview. Should we consider that when voting?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 8

    Patiently Waiting Says:
    68

    Jerome Bonneric’s facebook page has a link to a site with this article about how new immigrants can buy real estate:

    “Nothing makes you feel more settled and integrated into Canadian life than buying a home.

    According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CHMC), new immigrants to Canada typically purchase a home within three years of arrival.”

    http://2vancouver.com/en/blog/buying-your-first-home-away-from-home

    I wonder if Bonneric was trying to flip condos and lost his mind in the process. He’s looks like the type.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 2

    Patiently Waiting Says:
    69

    Another article about Coquitlam housing costs has these figures:

    Housing Cost and Income Changes

    Median Household Income Average Rent Average Dwelling Value

    2011 $60,8880 $1,110 $600,315

    1991 $49.400 $586 $200,050

    http://www.tricitynews.com/news/188900011.html

    One thing I notice is a lot of Coquitlam rentals today are whole houses or upper/lower half houses. They tend to be higher rent than regular apartments and were probably owner-occupied back in 1991.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    No Noise Says:
    70

    @#67

    Of course, consider that and everything else that is important to you. I didnt know who shut Riverview and whether it should have been shut or not and perhaps something else built or not – no one has all the answers to the problems which plague us – RE bubble, gangs/drugs, tax evasion, mental illness (and certainly no single political party does) – I just see the symptoms (of a western world economic system which appears to be failing relative to a few decades ago), do some research, develop some theories, and when voting federally/provincially/municipally, will choose what I think will help most. And bounce my opinions off the good people of VCI..

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 3

    Expect Vancouver houses to come down at least 25% this year alone!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 27 Thumb down 10

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    72

    “no one has all the answers to the problems which plague us – RE bubble”

    RE bubbles are not “problems” but economic distortions which are created by bad government policy. Get rid of the bad policy and you get rid of the bubble.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 7

    No Noise Says:
    73

    @73 Patriotz

    Right so vote for good govt/policy.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 4

    @ No Noise

    So the question is, what is good government policy on housing? Essentially every form of government initiative to make housing more affordable results in the opposite effect in the long term. Maximum affordability seems to come when government policy takes the form of stepping back and letting the free market do its thing.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3

    No Noise Says:
    75

    Patriotz would you care to explain Germany to N please? Actually, I’ve never heard it from you detailed if possible.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 4

    @Anonymous #65

    I think you are wrong about rents. I’ve rented in the Lower Mainland for decades. $1400 for a 3 bedroom top floor of a house and $600 for a basement suite (both in Coquitlam) does not sound like 1991 prices to me. That would have even been expensive for Vancouver in 1991. In 1998 I rented a three bedroom, top two floors of a house in East Van for $1000. Basement suites in Vancouver in the 90s were $400 to $500 and there was the rare suite for under 400. I actually rented a bachelor suite on the top floor of a building in new west in 2000 for $400 and it had a great view. A family member rented half a house I with yard in west side of Vancouver through the 80 s and 90s for no more than 650 when they moved out in the 90s. All those deals are long over. Seriously rents have gone way up all around greater vancouver over the past 10 to 12 years.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3

    @Anonymous#65

    “On the wages minimum wage was around $6.50 per hour in 1991 and today it is $10.25 per hour. That is a 57% increase in wages for the low wage earners. I wonder if household incomes are effected by higher home ownership rates. For example in the past a Starbucks barrista would live with their parents. Today they own their own condo which creates a new household with a low income.”

    Wrong on so many levels.

    My first job in BC was in 1995 and it was minimum wage. I don’t know about 1991, but I can tell you that in 1995 minimum wage in BC was $7 per hour. Then it increased to $8 somewhere around 1999 or 2000. From 2001 to 2011, a full ten years, minimum wage was stuck at $8 an hour. But the BC Liberals introduced a new training wage of $6 for first 500 hours of work experience (but I know many jobs paid people $6 even after 500 hours, sometimes it’s hard to prove you have 500 hours experience).

    The BC Liberals also changed the Employment Standards Act, which brought down my minimum wage pay cheques.

    Here are the rules in the 1990s under the NDP
    -if you work more than 8 hours in a day or 40 hours in a week, you get paid over time at time and a half rates and it goes up to double time at a certain point
    -if you show up to work and they send you home early they have to pay you a min. of 4 hours
    -no split shifts–minimum break of 8 hours between shifts (or something like that)

    Under the BC Liberals
    -Employers can ask their employees to sign averaging agreements. This way they don’t have to pay you over time if you work over 8 hours as long as it averages out to 40 hours in the week. They may even be allowed to get you to work more than 40 hours in a week without paying overtime as long as it balances out to 40 hours a week over two weeks. Of course, the employer can’t force you to sign an averaging agreement–but good luck keeping your job if you insist on being paid overtime rates if you work overtime
    -if you show up to work and they send you home early, they only have to pay you for 2 hours
    -split shifts are allowed, I don’t think there is a minimum number of hours between shifts. It’s commong to work 6 hours in the morning and then be told to wander through the mall for 2 hours and then come back for a closing shift of 5 hours. That never would have been allowed under the NDP in the 90s.

    Another thing is there are simply fewer full time jobs. It’s all part time. So when I had a minimum wage job in the 90s at $7 it was 40 hours a week plus the occasional over time. Now you are lucky to get 30 hours a week.

    Then consider that bus fare is way up, we’re travelling 3 zones to get to jobs because we live in Surrey now because of lack of affordable housing. In 1990s, it was only one zone bus fare to get to work because there was affordable housing near jobs in Vancouver. We have higher cost of food, gas, tuition, rents. Everything is up. The recent fare hike in transit just ate up most of the last 50 cent increase in minimum wage.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 32 Thumb down 3

    @Anonymous #65

    “For example in the past a Starbucks barrista would live with their parents. Today they own their own condo which creates a new household with a low income.”

    Wrong again. In the past, people with university degrees often got good paying, full time jobs. In the past, even people with only a high school diploma often got full time good jobs. In the past, my dad who did not even have his grade 12, was able to land a decent-paying, family-supporting-on-one-income job. In the past, people were able to get full time jobs by the time they were 20 so they moved into their own rented apartments and acted like grown-ups and paid rent, utilities, and gas.

    Now we pay tens of thousands of dollars to get multiple degrees and we’re still working part time jobs at Starbucks. Now we don’t have enough jobs for young adults and rents (YES RENTS!) are through the roof, so young adults stay living at home with parents in a sort of extended-childhood-fantasy land where they get the priveleges of adulthood without the responsibilities of supporting themselves and paying for rent, utilities, groceries, internet, etc.

    Yes, there are some Starbucks baristas who have recently bought condos with 0/40 mortgages. That is nowhere near as common as some think. Most minimum wage workers whom I work with, either live with parents or rent. But in the past, a lot of these people would have been able to access better, higher paying jobs so a lot of these people would have been able to buy without the need for 0/40 mortgages.

    A big part of the reason why Western countries around the world have gone to the path of cheap credit fueled real estate bubbles is to make up for the lack of good paying jobs. Neoliberal capitalism has shipped the good cheaps to cheap overseas labour. With so many jobs now gone, the middle class has been propped up with debt and cheap credit.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 47 Thumb down 3

    @No Noise

    It’s described pretty well here:
    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/how-germany-achieved-stable-affordable-housing/

    Basically, it’s liberal and market driven, with some government restrictions but essentially no active government involvement.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    80

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    painted turtle Says:
    81

    Germany = people do not like borrowing large amounts of money, They would rather rent + they are not obsessed with ownership + they can retire without relying on selling a house = no bubble.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    82

    All of the above are true, but all you need to prevent a bubble is to prevent people from borrowing large amounts of money. In Canada anyway, with its low savings.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 5

    And generally all you need to do to prevent people from borrowing large amounts of money is to leave the lender with full responsibility for the risk of loaning large amounts of money.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 23 Thumb down 5

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    84

    “(Germany is) described pretty well here:”

    Pretty good article, but it doesn’t make a good enough distinction between high shelter costs – both rents and prices – due to actual shortage of supply, and bubbles – which remember means prices out of proportion to rents – which are due to too easy credit and speculation.

    The UK had and still has both. The US (and Ireland) only had a bubble – there was never an actual shortage of shelter. Nor does Canada have an actual shortage.

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    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    85

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    RealityCheck Says:
    86

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    2008 my lady friend bought a 0 down 40yr mortgage 300k condo, this week she’s declaring bankruptcy… All because of the silly condo, she’s looking forward to renting…I know of several other’s in her shoes

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Cumulative 25% from peak for van west detached is possible by year end but yeah, 25% in this year is pretty much almost impossible. That would be a 35% drop in 18 months.

    On the other hand, Miami was close to that after 18 months (33%) and after 8 months from peak van west is still dropping faster than Miami did after the first 8 months…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 24 Thumb down 5

    Daniel in Calgary Says:
    89

    @Reality Check, “Goes to show the emotion (and lack of critical thinking) on this site.”

    You’re making too broad a claim. Just sayin’.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 8

    Daniel in Calgary Says:
    90

    @Bull! Bull! Bull!, “I’m just trying to figure out exactly what all of you are trying to ( or have ) accomplished after so many years.”

    Don’t give up. You’ll figure it out eventually. When you do, don’t beat yourself up too much. Some people take longer than others and there’s no shame it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 9

    Bravo RealityCheck, your ruse was so successful I have completely changed my bearish position. Instead of Gamma-grade bearishness I have migrated to Vega.

    Thank-you a thousand times over. I see the light.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 9

    Daniel in Calgary Says:
    92

    @Bull!Bull! Bull, sorry for the typo, I meant “there’s no shame in it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 6

    RealityCheck Says:
    93

    #90 Jesse,

    Dude, I’m in the same boat as you guys. Hope to buy a SFD home in the future if prices would drop from insane levels. Currently renting and its becoming a long waiting game…

    What irks me is emotion in predictions. There are some factors that many wish to ignore.

    1. Low interest rates result in low monthly carrying costs for people that bought years and years ago…result is they won’t sell if the going gets tough because their payments are less than rent.

    Thus, you need much higher rates to precipitate a decline. Won’t happen with wishful thinking. Can only happen if you band together and force a policy change. Venting on a forum wont help.

    2. Vancouver has added 800,000 people in the last 20 years…again, many coming each year. Force a policy change or the status quo will continue..

    ETC. ETC. ETC. sigh

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 20

    I don’t think readers here need a lesson in popular points of view being popular.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 5

    How many additional homes were added in last 20 years for those 800,000 people?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 4

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    96

    “That statement has nothing to back it up yet majority agree with it. ”

    No, a majority of those who clicked on it clicked up. And it didn’t ask people to click according to whether they agreed – i.e. it wasn’t a poll, even an unscientific one, in the first place.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 2

    In Calgary, they’re now building condos with windowless bedrooms.from the Calgary Herald:

    “Council members are slamming the windowless bedrooms being sold in new condo buildings as shabby “tenement” housing, but they’re apparently unable to limit a practice that’s been legal in Alberta for six years.

    The provincial safety codes gave the OK to suites with windowless bedrooms in 2006, as long as they’re protected by sprinklers, and marketers say the lower-cost units sell well…

    “Do we want to provide attractive, safe, comfortable accommodation for people or do we want to warehouse people? I’m not interested in creating the next tenements up in my ward,” Lowe, who sits on Calgary Planning Commission, told reporters…

    Other buildings with what Casola calls “inboard bedrooms” — as a nod to windowless cabins in large ships — include a development in deep southeast’s Copperfield community, and in the new University City highrises going up near the Brentwood LRT station.

    Calvin Buss, who helped market and design the University City project, said units with small, windowless bedrooms sold as well as others. They often have French doors for bigger exits and more light, or they’ll have a window well into the brighter living room, he said.

    “The problem with condominiums is, except for your corner units, they’re boxes that have windows on one end and no windows on the other three walls, so how do you get a second bedroom in?” Buss said.

    The code demands natural light and ventilation in those back bedrooms, and those are provided, he added.

    Suites with windowless bedrooms aren’t unique to new Calgary projects, either. New chief planner Rollin Stanley said he used to approve them in retrofitted office buildings in 1980s Toronto.””

    Idiotic comment by the designer/marketer Buss. It’s very possible to design two bedroom box in the sky condos.

    http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/calgary/Windowless+bedrooms+condos+draw+fire+city+council/7220597/story.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    You guys will love this Rick Mercer skit on the real estate bubble and Jim Flaherty’s cough medicine.

    http://www.cbc.ca/player/Shows/Shows/The%2BRick%2BMercer%2BReport/Clips/ID/2330519596/

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0

    No Noise Says:
    99

    @#79 N

    Thanks for digging up the German RE overview and from Patriotz’ comment I will assume its fairly accurate.

    You said:

    “It’s described pretty well here:

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/how-germany-achieved-stable-affordable-housing/

    Basically, it’s liberal and market driven, with some government restrictions but essentially no active government involvement”

    I don’t know how you can describe the laws which govern RE in Germany to be liberal and market driven. As the article describes – there are 3 major differences between Germany and the UK in their example (and the UK can compare to most western economies I assume).

    1)there are laws which allow buildings to be built on private land (minimal greenbelts etc) and if a municipality refuses to allow, the matter goes to court.

    2)rent prices and tenancy are tightly govt regulated

    3)govt regulation of credit availability

    I can see how 1) could be possibly described as “liberal” or “market driven” but overall I would say that its govt laws in Germany which account for their lack of a RE bubble. Whether its called being liberal or conservative is irrelevant, it’s just GOOD governing with GOOD laws. GOOD laws that I would vote for if a political party in Canada was to propose. Unfortunately, there’s a vast sector of the western world, politically and economically, tied to the system as currently set up (and of course it favours the very wealthy worldwide whether the gains are ill-gotten or not) so its an uphill battle. But it should be obvious to the 99% that the politics (espcially in the US) of the past 30 years has favoured the extremely wealthy 1% but somehow it isnt (although US Democrats have won a second term). After all we’ve been through and are going through since 2008 the far right still spouts wrongly that they are the moral and economic high ground when actually they’ve just been squeezing the middle class and poor. Can’t even get them to raise taxes on the rich when Gates and Buffet themselves say its the right thing to do! Trickle-down economics was tested for 30 years and is currently broken. It semi-worked as long as easy credit kept it alive but those chickens are coming home to roost now.

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    Anonymous Says:
    100

    RealityDick Says:
    February 2nd, 2013 at 8:26 pm

    blah, blah, blah…..Vancouver has added 800,000 people in the last 20 years… blah, blah, blah….

    Vancouver population 1991 471,644
    Vancouver population 2011 603,502

    Wow! I guess that means that 668k people moved here in 2012 alone! I guess you attended the Tsurd Sewerville school of mathematics?

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    Anonymous Says:
    101

    ….I wonder if Bonneric was trying to flip condos and lost his mind in the process. He’s looks like the type…..

    I think we’re going to see a lot of this type of behaviour in the near future. For all those Realturds out there, the thought of having to go back to making an honest living is very stressful.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    102

    I know for a fact that tenants have much more security of tenure in Germany. The spate of ‘renovictions’ we’ve seen in Vancouver would be illegal in Germany.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    103

    @Q

    “You guys will love this Rick Mercer skit on the real estate bubble and Jim Flaherty’s cough medicine.”

    It tastes like Cranteenies! Bwaahaahahaha!!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    104

    RealityCheck wrote:

    “Expect Vancouver houses to come down at least 25% this year alone!”

    20 votes up and 4 down at this time.

    Goes to show the emotion (and lack of critical thinking) on this site. That statement has nothing to back it up yet majority agree with it. FYI, a 25% drop this year alone in the HPI has a very slim chance of occurring if you do a proper analysis.

    In the first post you write expect Vancouver houses to come down 25% and then respond to your own post saying the HPI has a slim change of coming down 25% this year alone. Apples to oranges?

    I would agree the HPI won’t come down 25% but individual houses easily could drop by 25%. We have seen that pretty much happen in Richmond over last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen for the average Vancouver SFH. That 1 million $ character (crack) house in East Van could easily be at $750K by year end.

    Regarding a lack of critical thinking. Kettle meet the pot. If you did any critical thinking at all on this topic you wouldn’t even be debating the bubble.

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    Anonymous Says:
    105

    RealityCheck says:

    1. Low interest rates result in low monthly carrying costs for people that bought years and years ago…result is they won’t sell if the going gets tough because their payments are less than rent.

    Thus, you need much higher rates to precipitate a decline. Won’t happen with wishful thinking. Can only happen if you band together and force a policy change. Venting on a forum wont help.

    2. Vancouver has added 800,000 people in the last 20 years…again, many coming each year. Force a policy change or the status quo will continue..

    You keep posting the same drivel over and over again and then wonder why you get voted down. Low interest rates and population growth have not prevented every other housing bust around the world including what is happening right now in Vancouver. Why have prices come down 10% in the last 6 months alone in Vancouver? I didn’t see any significant changes to either of your points above.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    106

    No Noise: “I don’t know how you can describe the laws which govern RE in Germany to be liberal and market driven.”

    It just means the government didn’t get involved in making credit available to people who want to buy real estate. Real estate bubbles are created by governments to stimulate the economy. They offer credit to people who normally couldn’t get it and then those people borrow and spend through real estate. Germany didn’t need to fuel a local bubble because its manufacturing sector was doing so well in part because of real estate bubbles in other parts of Europe. The speculators in Spain were buying the BMWs. Now the other parts of Europe are not doing so well we will see what happens in Germany. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them change policy at some point to create a bubble there. After all everyone else is doing it. Both Canada and the US used to have sound policies as well, until they needed to juice the economy.

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    mclovin mclovin Says:
    107

    Nanamino

    -12% Year over year (Garth’s blog)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1

    slurker Says:
    108

    @RealityCheck #90:

    “1. Low interest rates result in low monthly carrying costs for people that bought years and years ago…result is they won’t sell if the going gets tough because their payments are less than rent.

    Thus, you need much higher rates to precipitate a decline. Won’t happen with wishful thinking. Can only happen if you band together and force a policy change. Venting on a forum wont help.”

    I think this is a misunderstanding shared by many people that lower interest rates will prevent a housing bubble bust. This belief does intuitively make sense, after all each mortgage holders payments drop reducing pressure on their household budget improving affordability. But if you take a step back and look at how the mortgage holder gets their money to pay back the interest the problem becomes clear.

    For everyone to pay back the interest on loans they need to get the money to begin with. Because there will ALWAYS be less money (assuming fiat debt backed interest bearing money) in an economy than what is needed to pay back all loans with interest the mortgage holder relies on the fact that he can either get this money from some other poor sap (making that person poorer) or getting hold on money that is newly created some way.

    In Canada money is created via bank loans and government deficit spending. If either of these shrink below what is needed to support the interest payments on the current debt load of the economy you’ll end up with people either directing spending from consumption and investment to debt repayment and/or debt defaults. Either of these aren’t that good for Joe Homeowner regardless of what their current interest payment may be.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    109

    It’s a misunderstanding all right, but the answer is really more simple.

    RE busts are never caused by people who had previously bought at low prices having to sell. Sure some may use the increase in prices to increase the debt on their house (aka HELOC) and get into trouble, but that’s not the primary cause.

    Busts are primarily caused by new buyers being unable to enter the market due to high prices. Since somebody always has to sell, this means prices have to go down.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 3

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    110

    ” I wouldn’t be surprised to see (Germany) change policy at some point to create a bubble there. ”

    I don’t think a change in policy would be enough. You can’t have a RE bubble if people aren’t willing to pay more to buy than to rent, by definition.

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    RealityCheck Says:
    111

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Keeping An Eye On The Pimps Says:
    112

    RealityCheck:

    You are so messed up, I feel sorry for you.

    My sister in law thinks that everyone wants to live here, there are millions of rich Asians that will pay anything to live here because it’s a safe place, (no gangs, drugs etc.), we are running out of land, (Halifax to the East, Pacific Ocean to the West) best place on earth- best education on earth (we have Douglas College and Kwantlen) those credentials will trump a criminal record any day- money well spent.

    When I point out that our relatives on the Island, and in the Okanagan, think the value of their home won’t drop she seems to agree that they are idiots to think it’s different there, she reasons there aren’t enough oil rich Albertans ,or retirees to save that market, and it’s silly to think it’s different there- this time.
    But here is the pungent part of my message to you:
    She is an idiot; she looks like Debra Hope and has the same mental capacity.

    You on the other hand, based on some of your posts, seem to be a
    reasonably intelligent person, probably with post secondary education, so there is no intellectual deficiency, but I do detect some form of emotional imbalance that could be easily remedied, possibly without a prescription, but a few sessions of analytical psychology therapy.

    RealityCheck, please get some help.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 2

    Re #109 RC

    You are trying really hard to give counter-examples to the “all bubbles must bust” “hypothesis”.

    So, what’s the price/income, price/rent in the Punjab region? What’s interest rate trend over last 10 years? Local currency movement vs USD? Inflation? Income trend?

    Need to know whether we are really comparing apple vs apple.

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    RealityCheck Says:
    114

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    115

    “Explain how your views explains prices in India.”

    It’s a bubble.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3

    RealityCheck Says:
    116

    #112 Gokou3:

    In a small city (1.5 Million) like Chandigarh in Punjab, condos are roughly around $200,000. Land prices are what’s truly astronomical. Basically, same as Metro Vancouver.

    Average median wage is around $4 a day. $2 a day for the vast majority that are unskilled. 6 days a week is the standard workweek. so over a month, it is $96 a month.

    Now the price/income ratio is astronomical.

    The price/rent is somewhat tempered. Because many properties don’t have mortgages, people are not renting out units to cover imaginary mortgages. Many poor people live there free…corruption is rampant, owners don’t want someone else stealing title to their land.

    Land then becomes a inter-generational store of wealth. People just hold on to it to pass to their kids.

    The prices i quoted going up 1000% are in USD. Rupee has depreciated much over the last 12 years…interest rates around 8% average..

    I know the above must sound strange to people not exposed to how RE works in India.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 8

    Anonymous Says:
    117

    RealtyCheck: “In the Punjab part of India, Real Estate has went up by about 1000% percent over the last 12 years. Yes 10 times! In US Dollars.”

    Sounds like a great time to buy in India. Clearly prices will go up another 10 fold over the next 12 years. Have you bought in yet?

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    RealityCheck Says:
    118

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Anonymous Says:
    119

    RealtyCheck:

    “I know the above must sound strange to people not exposed to how RE works in India.”

    “After stubbornly holding on to high prices for four years in the face of sluggish sales, a crippling liquidity crunch and rising cost of capital, Mumbai’s real estate industry has just blinked.

    At least three of Mumbai top builders have either cut prices by as much as Rs 2250 to Rs 5,000 or introduced flexible pricing within a single project, or launched innovative schemes where buyers stump up large sums to book properties even before the project enters construction stage.

    All this means only one thing – the longdue correction in real estate prices is here.”

    http://indiahousingbubble.blogspot.ca/

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    120

    RealtyCheck says: “get you GED diploma first.”

    LOL! ‘get you GED diploma’. Let me guess you got yours in India.

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    RealityCheck Says:
    121

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Anonymous Says:
    122

    Indias booming real estate. How do I get in?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Hn0zw1AnAAk

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    bon jovi Says:
    123

    @RealityCheck

    so if you make $2 a day do you rent? How much do you pay for rental? Who owns a rental stock?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    124

    RC: “For the others, thinking outside the box…”

    Bears are thinking outside the box. The average bull (like you) is mainstream.

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    Translation Says:
    125

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    RE #115 RC

    Isn’t astronomical synonymous with bubblish, at least in the RE context?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Short'em High Says:
    127

    re: IOC, Indians On Credit…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Hn0zw1AnAAk

    Good link. Thanks for posting.

    Analysis: Monkey see monkey do.

    An unintentionally comedic Indian couple with their $400K “investment”, “above board” but now “bleeding money” are exactly the same sort of fool as that Irish lady complaining about her house price collapse on CBC late last year.

    It is amazing how this game plays out exactly the same every time. It never fails that gullible idiots scrape together every cent and put it all on one roll of the dice! They never bet a half or a tenth of their net worth. They always bet 300%, 500%, 1000% etc… whatever they can get a loan for.

    Presumably the Indian government followed the other Fad Finance lemming countries right off the cliff with easy credit for homes too!

    To those people and anybody else (bulls) that think they’ve got the world by the tail with a “sure thing”, here is some simple advice. If you play a game and can’t figure out who the “mark” is, then THE MARK IS YOU!

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    128

    Upcoming episode of “Big Bang Theory”: Raj’s parents lose their shirts (or should I say dhotis) speculating in RE. Sheldon explains fundamental value to them.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 22 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    129

    Why would Germany change anything?
    They make stuff others actually want to buy.
    The place where they are playing the Superbowl game right now is called Mercedes-Benz Superdome for a reason…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    130

    I like Big Bang Theory but last episode felt like an advertisement for 3D printing. The wonders of 3D were central to the plot of the last episode.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    131

    “Why would Germany change anything?
    They make stuff others actually want to buy.”

    Cause the people that want to buy the stuff are maxed out on credit. Do you think those beemers are bought with cash?

    “The place where they are playing the Superbowl game right now is called Mercedes-Benz Superdome for a reason…”

    Yes because Mercedes paid them for the naming rights to try to sell more cars. Kind of like General Motors paid for the naming rights for GM Place years back. How did that work out?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    132

    “The place where they are playing the Superbowl game right now is called Mercedes-Benz Superdome for a reason…”

    And the power just went out in half the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The biggest embarrassment in Super Bowl history now has the name Mercedes attached to it. I bet the guy at Mercedes that signed that deal just got canned.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    133

    They just said on CNN that the last time the power was out at the Superdome in New Orleans was during Hurricane Katrina.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

    UBC in Crisis Mode Says:
    134

    This site has Vancouver January number:
    http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.ca/p/canadian-housing-bubble-price-peaks-and.html

    6.7% down from the peak.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    @JD 94
    I am answering my own question. In last 20 years, (1991-2011) 711k new people moved to Metro Vancouver. 282k new households were added.
    In absolute terms the largest increase is in houses with suites, then lowrise apartments, then highrise apartments, then townhouses. Regular houses actually shrank (likely caused by the popularity of houses with suites for new construction).
    Over this time period household size shrank.
    Largest percentage increases were in houses with suites, then townhouses, highrises, lowrises, with non-suited houses slightly shrinking.

    Doesn’t seem like there is a shortage of places to live. Maybe the prices really don’t make sense?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

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