FFFA! Optimism! Borrowing! Sex!

Hey! You made it to another weekend, and you know what that means? Its time for another Friday Free-for-all, our open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

BCREA Optimistic
Borrowing back to troubling levels
Experts predict bubble will remain
Summary of that video
Sorry about the sex
Buy a house now?
Construction price fixing?
Stratify more basements!
Bye bye best buy
Toronto condo sales fall 47%

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

 

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
JD
Member
JD

@JD 94
I am answering my own question. In last 20 years, (1991-2011) 711k new people moved to Metro Vancouver. 282k new households were added.
In absolute terms the largest increase is in houses with suites, then lowrise apartments, then highrise apartments, then townhouses. Regular houses actually shrank (likely caused by the popularity of houses with suites for new construction).
Over this time period household size shrank.
Largest percentage increases were in houses with suites, then townhouses, highrises, lowrises, with non-suited houses slightly shrinking.

Doesn’t seem like there is a shortage of places to live. Maybe the prices really don’t make sense?

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

This site has Vancouver January number:
http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.ca/p/canadian-housing-bubble-price-peaks-and.html

6.7% down from the peak.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

They just said on CNN that the last time the power was out at the Superdome in New Orleans was during Hurricane Katrina.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“The place where they are playing the Superbowl game right now is called Mercedes-Benz Superdome for a reason…”

And the power just went out in half the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The biggest embarrassment in Super Bowl history now has the name Mercedes attached to it. I bet the guy at Mercedes that signed that deal just got canned.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“Why would Germany change anything?
They make stuff others actually want to buy.”

Cause the people that want to buy the stuff are maxed out on credit. Do you think those beemers are bought with cash?

“The place where they are playing the Superbowl game right now is called Mercedes-Benz Superdome for a reason…”

Yes because Mercedes paid them for the naming rights to try to sell more cars. Kind of like General Motors paid for the naming rights for GM Place years back. How did that work out?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I like Big Bang Theory but last episode felt like an advertisement for 3D printing. The wonders of 3D were central to the plot of the last episode.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Why would Germany change anything?
They make stuff others actually want to buy.
The place where they are playing the Superbowl game right now is called Mercedes-Benz Superdome for a reason…

patriotz
Member

Upcoming episode of “Big Bang Theory”: Raj’s parents lose their shirts (or should I say dhotis) speculating in RE. Sheldon explains fundamental value to them.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High
re: IOC, Indians On Credit… http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Hn0zw1AnAAk Good link. Thanks for posting. Analysis: Monkey see monkey do. An unintentionally comedic Indian couple with their $400K “investment”, “above board” but now “bleeding money” are exactly the same sort of fool as that Irish lady complaining about her house price collapse on CBC late last year. It is amazing how this game plays out exactly the same every time. It never fails that gullible idiots scrape together every cent and put it all on one roll of the dice! They never bet a half or a tenth of their net worth. They always bet 300%, 500%, 1000% etc… whatever they can get a loan for. Presumably the Indian government followed the other Fad Finance lemming countries right off the cliff with easy credit for homes too! To those people and anybody else (bulls)… Read more »
gokou3
Guest
gokou3

RE #115 RC

Isn’t astronomical synonymous with bubblish, at least in the RE context?

Translation
Guest
Translation

patriotz Says:
February 3rd, 2013 at 12:50 pm
“Explain how your views explains prices in India.”

It’s a bubble.

translation:
Buy now and sell in five years. You’ll more than double your money.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

RC: “For the others, thinking outside the box…”

Bears are thinking outside the box. The average bull (like you) is mainstream.

bon jovi
Guest
bon jovi

@RealityCheck

so if you make $2 a day do you rent? How much do you pay for rental? Who owns a rental stock?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Indias booming real estate. How do I get in?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Hn0zw1AnAAk

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

I think I’ve reached my posting limit for today. 😉

In summation, high population growth/concentrated population growth is what’s at the core of driving prices higher. Low interest rates by themselves can’t do anything (Look at Japan – low pop). High interest rates by themselves can’t pop a bubble…look at India, look at Sydney, Australia.

For those that are interested, there is going to be a nationwide ban on businesses that hire Temporary Foreign Workers (TFW – 450,000 now in Canada) over qualified Canadians. See Globe and mail…

Go 49’ers!!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

RealtyCheck says: “get you GED diploma first.”

LOL! ‘get you GED diploma’. Let me guess you got yours in India.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

RealtyCheck:

“I know the above must sound strange to people not exposed to how RE works in India.”

“After stubbornly holding on to high prices for four years in the face of sluggish sales, a crippling liquidity crunch and rising cost of capital, Mumbai’s real estate industry has just blinked.

At least three of Mumbai top builders have either cut prices by as much as Rs 2250 to Rs 5,000 or introduced flexible pricing within a single project, or launched innovative schemes where buyers stump up large sums to book properties even before the project enters construction stage.

All this means only one thing – the longdue correction in real estate prices is here.”

http://indiahousingbubble.blogspot.ca/

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

And to all the posters calling me names and/or trying character assassinations…..get you GED diploma first. Yes Google it..

For the others, thinking outside the box…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

RealtyCheck: “In the Punjab part of India, Real Estate has went up by about 1000% percent over the last 12 years. Yes 10 times! In US Dollars.”

Sounds like a great time to buy in India. Clearly prices will go up another 10 fold over the next 12 years. Have you bought in yet?

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck
#112 Gokou3: In a small city (1.5 Million) like Chandigarh in Punjab, condos are roughly around $200,000. Land prices are what’s truly astronomical. Basically, same as Metro Vancouver. Average median wage is around $4 a day. $2 a day for the vast majority that are unskilled. 6 days a week is the standard workweek. so over a month, it is $96 a month. Now the price/income ratio is astronomical. The price/rent is somewhat tempered. Because many properties don’t have mortgages, people are not renting out units to cover imaginary mortgages. Many poor people live there free…corruption is rampant, owners don’t want someone else stealing title to their land. Land then becomes a inter-generational store of wealth. People just hold on to it to pass to their kids. The prices i quoted going up 1000% are in USD. Rupee has depreciated… Read more »
patriotz
Member

“Explain how your views explains prices in India.”

It’s a bubble.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

#99 post,

Do you really think I was referring to Vancouver and not METRO Vancouver when using a population increase number lime 800,000?????

15 votes thinking Vancouver. WTF?

Wow. Some really uniformed people here…wouldn’t take those people’s advice.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

Re #109 RC

You are trying really hard to give counter-examples to the “all bubbles must bust” “hypothesis”.

So, what’s the price/income, price/rent in the Punjab region? What’s interest rate trend over last 10 years? Local currency movement vs USD? Inflation? Income trend?

Need to know whether we are really comparing apple vs apple.

Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
Guest
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
RealityCheck: You are so messed up, I feel sorry for you. My sister in law thinks that everyone wants to live here, there are millions of rich Asians that will pay anything to live here because it’s a safe place, (no gangs, drugs etc.), we are running out of land, (Halifax to the East, Pacific Ocean to the West) best place on earth- best education on earth (we have Douglas College and Kwantlen) those credentials will trump a criminal record any day- money well spent. When I point out that our relatives on the Island, and in the Okanagan, think the value of their home won’t drop she seems to agree that they are idiots to think it’s different there, she reasons there aren’t enough oil rich Albertans ,or retirees to save that market, and it’s silly to think it’s… Read more »
RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

*109 Patriots,

You keeps talking about bubble and rents like they’re joined at the hip or something.

In the Punjab part of India, Real Estate has went up by about 1000% percent over the last 12 years. Yes 10 times! In US Dollars.

Rents remain the same more or less. Most properties of people overseas are rented for free. Tenants just pay for upkeep.

The vast majority of properties have no mortgage.

Explain how your views explains prices in India. Also, no correction in prices there since Independence…60+ years ago.