FFFA! Optimism! Borrowing! Sex!

Hey! You made it to another weekend, and you know what that means? Its time for another Friday Free-for-all, our open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

BCREA Optimistic
Borrowing back to troubling levels
Experts predict bubble will remain
Summary of that video
Sorry about the sex
Buy a house now?
Construction price fixing?
Stratify more basements!
Bye bye best buy
Toronto condo sales fall 47%

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

 

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patriotz
Member
3 years 5 days ago
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 days ago

This is such a sleazy story and the BC Liberals have their fingers all over it. Why is the vice-resident of the BC Liberal Party working and lobbying for a Chinese fraudster?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/chinas-corruption-crackdown-hones-in-on-bc-pulp-mill/article8097064/

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 days ago

patriotz: “Chinese New Year Starts with a bang”

Pretty sad when people are jovial about a tragedy that likely killed or seriously injured dozens. Does it somehow make you feel better to celebrate such things? You make the average KKK member look compassionate.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 days ago

…Why is the vice-resident of the BC Liberal Party working and lobbying for a Chinese fraudster?…..

Errr, cause the job pays well?

Guest
richmond
3 years 5 days ago

“Pretty sad when people are jovial about a tragedy that likely killed or seriously injured dozens. Does it somehow make you feel better to celebrate such things? You make the average KKK member look compassionate.”

I agree with Anonymous.

Guest
Blast From The Past
3 years 5 days ago

you weren’t kidding when you said the bottom will come after 2010. it’s now 2013 and we are still waiting for that bottom! 😀

patriotz Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
As someone else noted, the bottom will not come until after the 2010 Olympics, when the last dregs of bullishness are exhausted.Then see several years of flat nominal prices. When real prices return to 2001 levels, we will probably see appreciation return to the historical trend. No bubble like this for another generation (1981->2006->2031).

Member
JD
3 years 5 days ago

Apparently sex and condo open houses is a real problem.

http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/the-worst-thing-thats-ever-happened/8371

Guest
Real Paul
3 years 5 days ago

“Chinese New Year starts with a bang!”

“The official Xinhua News Agency said nine people were confirmed dead and another 13 injured, including four in serious condition. It said the collapse smashed and buried at least 25 vehicles.”

OMG! That’s HILARIOUS!

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 days ago

OMG! That’s HILARIOUS!

I know I feel better about my loser life now knowing some people are worse off.

The funny part is Real Paul most people on this forum won’t get your sarcasm.

Member
3 years 4 days ago

Larry’s numbers out. Some thoughts. I was expecting the avg. price increase especially in detached. There were about 5 seriously high priced homes that moved in the beginning of the year, all of which were large discounts off the original ask. I.e., one of Vancouvers most well known and longest serving businessman and philanthropists sold their house in Point Grey this week but for $6M less than asking after a while on the market. Take away the top 5 transactions, and our average was actually down. However – I am seeing some slowdown in HPI decreases. I think we will… Read more »

Guest
@yvr2zrh
3 years 4 days ago

who’s larry?

Guest
oneangryslav2
3 years 4 days ago

“who’s Larry?” http://www.yattermatters.com/

mclovin
Member
mclovin
3 years 4 days ago
Guest
Sidelines
3 years 4 days ago

V984005 – detached home in Mount Pleasant. Was $700k, now price change to $770k(!). Just curious what the strategy might be here, given the state of the market? I don’t get it. Perhaps the more clever than me out in the blogosphere would know? Thanks in advance, from an easily-confused bear!

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 4 days ago

Re. #6

I guess all those thumbs down are people who don’t like to be reminded how phenomenally wrong patriotz has been in the past?

mclovin
Member
mclovin
3 years 4 days ago

From Larry’s Stats.

I want to get this out before the Bulls call the bottom

Detached
January 13 – $1,152,851
January 12 – $1,145,956
January 11 – $1,144,537

2 yr return +0.07
2 yr. return after inflation -4.2%

mclovin
Member
mclovin
3 years 4 days ago

“I guess all those thumbs down are people who don’t like to be reminded how phenomenally wrong patriotz has been in the past?”

Who cares if he’s been wrong? His opinion is just as valid or not valid as anyone else’s. He’s just another poster here. He brings a lot of great information to share here and is a valued member of this community.At least he posts his predications for all to see unlike the Bulls who simply say real estate always goes up.

Guest
Ludvig von Mises
3 years 4 days ago

@16

You’re too late. I called bottom last week (in a non-committal sort of way).

patriotz
Member
3 years 4 days ago

“I guess all those thumbs down are people who don’t like to be reminded how phenomenally wrong patriotz has been in the past?”

About what? The bear case is based on the premise that buying cannot become cheaper than renting without a substantial decline in prices. As long as we’re right about that, we’re winning.

Guest
@Sidelines
3 years 4 days ago

“Just curious what the strategy might be here, given the state of the market”

they don’t want to just retire, they want to retire AND a new BMW.

Guest
Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE
3 years 4 days ago

Another warning that int rates could jump dramatically.
This time from Charles Ortel of Newport Value Partners.
The bandwagon is starting to get crowded.

With bond yields rising, it’s just a matter until mortgage rates go up and leaveraged homeowners start to sweat.
We will probably get enough of a warning to suck in a few more idiots trying to get in before that happens. But higher mortgage rates will eventually grease the skids of our biggest housing bust since 1982.

Guest
Many Franks
3 years 4 days ago

@Ludvig von Mises: “I wouldn’t bet on it” is hardly a bottom call. But anyway, a bottom with MOI > 10 would represent a clear break with Jesse’s MOI-to-HoH predictor; unless that correlation breaks we’re in for a few more months of decline.

Guest
Canis
3 years 4 days ago

YVR: Isn’t that “firm” floor of 1.5m for lots supported by the prospect of building within a year and selling a top-end house for 2.5m-3m? So, if sales are slowing and prices falling at the top end, how long can that floor for lots remain firm? Also, the blogs have reported sales of some lots (granted on busier streets) for well under 1.5m; can you be more specific about where that 1.5m figure still holds up?

Guest
RealityCheck
3 years 4 days ago

Surrey Lots for SFD have had a price floor under them ever since the slowdown. Tear down ranchers haven’t budged in price either.

High end homes have seen prices come down. But that doesn’t do any good for people trying to enter the sfd market for the first time.

Guest
RealityCheck
3 years 4 days ago

#16 Mclovin:

You throw inflation out there like your take home pay also rose by at least 4.2%…

Guest
Burbs Boy
3 years 4 days ago

Reality Check – that is the correct way to assess inflation. No different than you would for comparing piss poor returns on a GIC or CSB. Real negative returns for many investments out there.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 4 days ago

Re #19

So, are you suggesting that in some twisted sort of way you were actually right … despite the mismatch between your prediction and what actually happened? And this makes you a “winner”?

Guest
Landbaron
3 years 4 days ago

#27 Anonymous

From what I read, patriotz said that prices will be flat after the Olympics for ‘several’ years and then drop after that.

Seems to me that is exactly what is happening!

Guest
Crikey
3 years 4 days ago

Here’s a blog that went up since long before the US RE crash, and has proven its naysayers wrong time and again. The latest entry? “World’s Largest Housing Bubble Is Popping… In Canada?” http://housingdoom.com/2013/02/01/worlds-largest-housing-bubble-is-popping-in-canada/ Check out the embedded graph (from The Economist) on how over-valued prices are compared to rent, around the world. WE’RE NUMBER ONE! We even beat out Hong Kong and Singapore, which have just a *little* less land per capita than we do. Before the Vancouver MSM goes and brags about it, they should know this is not a good thing for RE prices… And before anybody… Read more »

VMD
Member
3 years 4 days ago

quick question re: fixed rates going up,
If Canadian economy deteriorates this year, dragging the stock market down with it, the 5-yr bond yield will be pressured to drop lower due to higher demand for bonds? (Unless Canada is threatened with a ratings downgrade?). Thx.

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 4 days ago

@VMD Generally when the economy starts deterioration, bond yields will fall. However, if the economy deteriorates to the point that sovereign credit risk emerges, or its expected that our dollar is to decline further, yields will rise. In all likelihood if Canada goes into a recession right now, bond yields will fall… But if it gets as ugly as some of the European countries (which I don’t think it will, but who knows for sure??) then yields could rise. If large credit risks emerge in the banks as well, their spreads could rise which would cause mortgage rates to rise.… Read more »

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 4 days ago

VMD:”If Canadian economy deteriorates this year, dragging the stock market down with it, the 5-yr bond yield will be pressured to drop lower due to higher demand for bonds?” The banks are the only significant sector on the TSX that will get dragged down with the Canadian economy. Other sectors like resources are dependent on the world economy. As far as Canadian bond rates go they will follow the US regardless of what the Canadian economy does. So we could have a tanking Canadian economy due to a housing bust but still have higher bond rates and a strong TSX… Read more »

Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
3 years 4 days ago

Markets bottomed! Crash averted!

Guest
Wakeup call
3 years 4 days ago

Good response Groundhog. You have nicely covered the basics. However, one thing that we should keep in mind is that those low rates were a desperate emergency attempt to get out of the 2008 financial disaster by the FED pumping unprecedented amounts of money into the system that the rest of the world was forced to follow. It was not intended as long term monetary policy. The reversion back to the norm has only been delayed by the failure of the US economy to recover. Powerfull countries like the US pretty much set the trend for smaller countries to follow.… Read more »

Guest
N
3 years 4 days ago

@ Sidelines 14

They might have wanted more than 770 originally but were trying to generate a bidding war.

Member
Patiently Waiting
3 years 4 days ago

So Coquitlam rents have risen at almost four times the rate of family income. Also, the rental stock is now older and often in bad condition. “If council is to have a beneficial effect on housing affordability in the next decade, and I strenuously hope that we will have a beneficial effect on it, almost all of that effect will be in zoning, in land-use policies and in reducing the land costs per door,” Mayor Richard Stewart said. Along with the long list of proposed changes came a grim snapshot of several economic indicators: since 1991 the median household income… Read more »

patriotz
Member
3 years 4 days ago

” the median household income has risen by 23 per cent, while average rents have increased 89 per cent. ”

Stop right there. First of all comparing median of one thing to average of something else is bogus (the Bill Gates effect). They should just look at benchmark rental properties over the same period.

Second rents are determined by the regional rental market and there’s not a lot Coquitlam can do to change total supply and demand, assuming there is a problem in the first place.

Guest
vancouverguy
3 years 4 days ago

“In all likelihood if Canada goes into a recession right now, bond yields will fall… But if it gets as ugly as some of the European countries (which I don’t think it will, but who knows for sure??) then yields could rise.”

In contrast to the Euro members who ran into trouble, Canada has its own currency. Yields in Canada may rise in the future, but it won’t be for the same reason as Greece.

Guest
Rob
3 years 4 days ago

How did Rick Mercer’s Flaherty’s Mixtures skit NOT make the FFFA? http://www.cbc.ca/player/Shows/Shows/The+Rick+Mercer+Report/ID/2330519596/

Guest
WOWSERS
3 years 4 days ago

Can’t help but notice a lot of bankruptcy debt restructuring commercials on the radio here in Vancouver, gonna be busy business the next few years

patriotz
Member
3 years 4 days ago

Beat me to it! Watch it on the big screen at 8:30 tonight.

Rick gets it!

paulb
Member
3 years 4 days ago

New Listings 302
Price Changes 61
Sold Listings 78
TI:13930

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Member
mac
3 years 4 days ago

Hey VCI, thanks for the nod. And on a 300+ listings day too! :)

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 4 days ago

@vancouverguy “In contrast to the Euro members who ran into trouble, Canada has its own currency. Yields in Canada may rise in the future, but it won’t be for the same reason as Greece.” Yes, the Euro has been a complicating factor, but having one’s own currency doesn’t eliminate a country from the risk of rising interest rates or facing the same issues as Greece. As I said, I don’t think Canada is going to be in that position in the foreseeable future, but take a look at the long history of financial crises and you’ll notice that having the… Read more »

Guest
bon jovi
3 years 4 days ago

we are OK until we have increase production of Oil. Once we reach peak in Canada, everything false apart.

Member
CanuckDownUnder
3 years 4 days ago

I have to say I’m developing some serious market envy Vancouver. According to the three private data providers Sydney real estate prices are back to an all-time high. The government numbers come out on Tuesday, if they have prices going up by 1.2 per cent or more in Q4 2012 then they will be showing a new peak as well. All those interest rate cuts must be having something of an impact. The next couple of years should be interesting, if a nice spread develops between the Aussie and Canadian markets and the AUD/CAD ratio stays in our favour it… Read more »

Guest
vancouverguy
3 years 4 days ago

“There are, today, countries with their own currencies and central banks that can’t keep interest rates low.”

Of course there are. Bond yields are based on what bond buyers demand as a return. One of those risks is the risk of default, which is quite low in a country with its own currency. However, if market participants perceive other risks, such as inflationary risk, then yields will rise regardless.

jesse
Member
3 years 4 days ago

Looks like two nk parties in February! Bonus!

Guest
Groundhog
3 years 4 days ago
Guest
vancouverguy
3 years 4 days ago

@groundhog Enjoyed the paper – thanks! Default can and has occurred in many countries, including those with control over their currency. However, a country with a sovereign currency would be more likely to default through inflation. This is highlighted in section VI of the study. The authors write “Money creation and interest costs on debt all enter the government’s budget constraint and, in a funding crisis, a sovereign will typically grab from any and all sources.” They also add that having a “printing press” for currency significantly enhances the ability to do so. “there is no question that the advent… Read more »

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