FFFA! Optimism! Borrowing! Sex!

Hey! You made it to another weekend, and you know what that means? Its time for another Friday Free-for-all, our open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

BCREA Optimistic
Borrowing back to troubling levels
Experts predict bubble will remain
Summary of that video
Sorry about the sex
Buy a house now?
Construction price fixing?
Stratify more basements!
Bye bye best buy
Toronto condo sales fall 47%

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

 

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patriotz
Member
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

This is such a sleazy story and the BC Liberals have their fingers all over it. Why is the vice-resident of the BC Liberal Party working and lobbying for a Chinese fraudster?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/chinas-corruption-crackdown-hones-in-on-bc-pulp-mill/article8097064/

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

patriotz: “Chinese New Year Starts with a bang”

Pretty sad when people are jovial about a tragedy that likely killed or seriously injured dozens. Does it somehow make you feel better to celebrate such things? You make the average KKK member look compassionate.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

…Why is the vice-resident of the BC Liberal Party working and lobbying for a Chinese fraudster?…..

Errr, cause the job pays well?

richmond
Guest
richmond

“Pretty sad when people are jovial about a tragedy that likely killed or seriously injured dozens. Does it somehow make you feel better to celebrate such things? You make the average KKK member look compassionate.”

I agree with Anonymous.

Blast From The Past
Guest
Blast From The Past

you weren’t kidding when you said the bottom will come after 2010. it’s now 2013 and we are still waiting for that bottom! 😀

patriotz Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
As someone else noted, the bottom will not come until after the 2010 Olympics, when the last dregs of bullishness are exhausted.Then see several years of flat nominal prices. When real prices return to 2001 levels, we will probably see appreciation return to the historical trend. No bubble like this for another generation (1981->2006->2031).

JD
Member
JD

Apparently sex and condo open houses is a real problem.

http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/the-worst-thing-thats-ever-happened/8371

Real Paul
Guest
Real Paul

“Chinese New Year starts with a bang!”

“The official Xinhua News Agency said nine people were confirmed dead and another 13 injured, including four in serious condition. It said the collapse smashed and buried at least 25 vehicles.”

OMG! That’s HILARIOUS!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

OMG! That’s HILARIOUS!

I know I feel better about my loser life now knowing some people are worse off.

The funny part is Real Paul most people on this forum won’t get your sarcasm.

yvr2zrh
Member
Larry’s numbers out. Some thoughts. I was expecting the avg. price increase especially in detached. There were about 5 seriously high priced homes that moved in the beginning of the year, all of which were large discounts off the original ask. I.e., one of Vancouvers most well known and longest serving businessman and philanthropists sold their house in Point Grey this week but for $6M less than asking after a while on the market. Take away the top 5 transactions, and our average was actually down. However – I am seeing some slowdown in HPI decreases. I think we will still be down this month, especially in Richmond. However, Van-West is now hitting bottom as the floor for 33×120 lot in decent area is holding firm above 1.5M. It’s just the top-end over $2.5M that we are seeing large acceptances… Read more »
@yvr2zrh
Guest
@yvr2zrh

who’s larry?

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2

“who’s Larry?” http://www.yattermatters.com/

mclovin
Member
mclovin
Sidelines
Guest
Sidelines

V984005 – detached home in Mount Pleasant. Was $700k, now price change to $770k(!). Just curious what the strategy might be here, given the state of the market? I don’t get it. Perhaps the more clever than me out in the blogosphere would know? Thanks in advance, from an easily-confused bear!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Re. #6

I guess all those thumbs down are people who don’t like to be reminded how phenomenally wrong patriotz has been in the past?

mclovin
Member
mclovin

From Larry’s Stats.

I want to get this out before the Bulls call the bottom

Detached
January 13 – $1,152,851
January 12 – $1,145,956
January 11 – $1,144,537

2 yr return +0.07
2 yr. return after inflation -4.2%

mclovin
Member
mclovin

“I guess all those thumbs down are people who don’t like to be reminded how phenomenally wrong patriotz has been in the past?”

Who cares if he’s been wrong? His opinion is just as valid or not valid as anyone else’s. He’s just another poster here. He brings a lot of great information to share here and is a valued member of this community.At least he posts his predications for all to see unlike the Bulls who simply say real estate always goes up.

Ludvig von Mises
Guest
Ludvig von Mises

@16

You’re too late. I called bottom last week (in a non-committal sort of way).

patriotz
Member

“I guess all those thumbs down are people who don’t like to be reminded how phenomenally wrong patriotz has been in the past?”

About what? The bear case is based on the premise that buying cannot become cheaper than renting without a substantial decline in prices. As long as we’re right about that, we’re winning.

@Sidelines
Guest
@Sidelines

“Just curious what the strategy might be here, given the state of the market”

they don’t want to just retire, they want to retire AND a new BMW.

Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE
Guest
Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE

Another warning that int rates could jump dramatically.
This time from Charles Ortel of Newport Value Partners.
The bandwagon is starting to get crowded.

With bond yields rising, it’s just a matter until mortgage rates go up and leaveraged homeowners start to sweat.
We will probably get enough of a warning to suck in a few more idiots trying to get in before that happens. But higher mortgage rates will eventually grease the skids of our biggest housing bust since 1982.

Many Franks
Guest
Active Member
Many Franks

@Ludvig von Mises: “I wouldn’t bet on it” is hardly a bottom call. But anyway, a bottom with MOI > 10 would represent a clear break with Jesse’s MOI-to-HoH predictor; unless that correlation breaks we’re in for a few more months of decline.

Canis
Guest
Canis

YVR: Isn’t that “firm” floor of 1.5m for lots supported by the prospect of building within a year and selling a top-end house for 2.5m-3m? So, if sales are slowing and prices falling at the top end, how long can that floor for lots remain firm? Also, the blogs have reported sales of some lots (granted on busier streets) for well under 1.5m; can you be more specific about where that 1.5m figure still holds up?

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

Surrey Lots for SFD have had a price floor under them ever since the slowdown. Tear down ranchers haven’t budged in price either.

High end homes have seen prices come down. But that doesn’t do any good for people trying to enter the sfd market for the first time.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

#16 Mclovin:

You throw inflation out there like your take home pay also rose by at least 4.2%…