Flaherty’s ‘other’ mixture.

Finally!

A bit of humour that calls out the absurdity of the ‘tough new mortgage rules’.

This is brilliant, thanks Rick Mercer.

On a side note is the ‘crantini’ joke a common one in housing markets? The only place I’ve seen it is here on dear old VCI when ‘samantha’ refers to drinking crantinis on the patio.

(at least I assume that’s a joke, sorry Sam if it’s not.)

 

132 Responses to “Flaherty’s ‘other’ mixture.”

- ♦ ↓ ↓ ↓ Click here to leap to comment form ↓ ↓ ↓ ♦ -

    Love it, almost like he reads this site.. Fav quotes

    “well believe me I know the housing market” Sounds like all the people that bought in the last couple of years

    Flaherty’s other mixture “which caused the market to over heat in the first place”

    Wonderful!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 39 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    2

    Flaherty’s other mixture “which caused the market to over heat in the first place”

    Let see if the ‘other mixture’ caused the market to over heat then what happens when you take that mixture away? Pretty simple answer. The sad part is Rick Mercer is the only guy on CBC who gets it. You would think for a few billion a year in tax payer dollars the CBC could do a few stories on what is really happening with housing in Canada.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 2

    More like Rick Mercer is the only guy on CBC who can get away with it, since he’s a comedian.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 1

    Did I imagine this? Last night on the treadmill I could have sworn Global did a piece on the Chinese real estate market possibly melting down. They covered the ghost cities and ghost condos. Granted, it’s a 4-yr old story by now but it would have been scary for the regular Global TV viewer who is used to seeing only good news on the Chinese real estate investment front.

    But then again, maybe I was running too fast and became oxygen deprived.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 0

    I’m tired of RE agents trying to connect on LinkedIn. During last year every week I have requests from people whom I never met. Why would I want to have dozens of RE agents in my connections? I just keep ignoring them, but it seems like they are becoming desperate.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1

    There is life in this city yet

    Ted Talks to be moved to Vancouver from California (likely permanently). HQs are now New York and Vancouver

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouver-selected-to-host-ted-talks-starting-in-2014/article8167165/

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 6

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    9

    I guess Vancouver’s real estate cartel is going to be beating this theme to death, since they mentioned it 3 times in their press release.

    Home buyer demand remains below historical averages in the Greater Vancouver housing market. This has led some home sellers to remove their homes from the market in recent months.”

    “It appears many home sellers are opting to remove their homes from the market rather than settle for a price they don’t want,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.”

    “When a home seller isn’t receiving the kind of offers they want, there comes a point when they decide to either lower the price or remove the home from the market. Right now, it seems many home sellers are opting for the latter,” Klein said.”

    Go ahead and wait for a better price, suckers.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 76 Thumb down 1

    No doubt “crantini” was highjacked from this blog just like the common use of ‘Realturd’ in which I coined about 2009.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 5

    Many Franks Says:
    11

    Best place on meth: yup, they’re kicking that horse pretty hard in the Financial Post too. They can say what they like for all I care, as long as the numbers continue to do what they’re doing.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 1

    regardless of that odd thumbs down. TED Talks is a coup for the region. It is also counters the idea that Vancouver is some backwater city with a nice view. The conference attracts alot of thinkers, big names, and sells out, even at thousands of dollars a pop.

    We may not be Hong Kong, New York, etc, but Van has shown to be very attractive to the outside world.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 27 Thumb down 21

    @ BPOM

    It seems like they are encouraging people to take their houses off the market, but I have to wonder why. I would have thought that encouraging them to drop their prices would mean more money in the realtor’s pockets.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 29 Thumb down 1

    Best place on meth Says:
    14

    Whistler condo prices fell 13.5% last month.

    That was a good investment, wasn’t it?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 69 Thumb down 2

    Best place on meth Says:
    15

    By the way, our resident smug douchette Samantha B spells it “cranteeny”.

    Ahh…she brings us so much laughter.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 34 Thumb down 3

    Best place on meth Says:
    16

    @N

    Realtors don’t want falling prices because it will convince even more people not to buy so maybe they’re trying to encourage a sellers strike in an attempt to avert even more long term pain.

    This strategy is akin to playing Russian Roulette with bullets in 5 chambers.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    The Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index for January 2013 was 80.

    Details and historical data at: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Vancouver-Realtor-Hunger-Index

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    There must be good schools, safety and healthy lifestyle what these Chinese were after when they came to Canada and brought their businesses along with them.

    http://www.theprovince.com/alleged+Asian+crime+boss+escaped+Vancouver/7915274/story.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    “We may not be Hong Kong, New York, etc, but Van has shown to be very attractive to the outside world.”

    Really? Read the article again:

    The move to Vancouver has come after lengthy negotiations with a consortium made up of the federal Canadian Tourism Commission, the provincially run Vancouver Convention Centre, and Tourism Vancouver.

    In other words, the only reason they’re here is because of sponsorship by the various levels of government. It’s really starting to bother me that the government has been paying big dollars to attract these things to Vancouver – the Olympics, the Bollywood awards, the film industry, and now this.

    It’s pathetic, and it shows exactly why this is not the “world class city” that so many people here are so obsessed with. Los Angeles doesn’t need to lobby or pay the Academy to host the Oscars every year. They are there because LA is a major entertainment center. Silicon Valley didn’t become the tech center of the world because of government intervention. And if you Google “Sir John Cowperthwaite”, you will learn that the reason that Hong Kong became an economic powerhouse is precisely because the British explicitly decided not to intervene in its economic development.

    Here’s a prediction: in 2 years, the TED talks will leave Vancouver after realizing we are not anywhere near the center of the universe – technologically, economically, academically, or otherwise. Once the government cash runs out there will be no reason to stick around.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 45 Thumb down 8

    Anonymous Says:
    20

    N: “It seems like they are encouraging people to take their houses off the market, but I have to wonder why. I would have thought that encouraging them to drop their prices would mean more money in the realtor’s pockets.”

    Realtors in aggregate make money from more buyers not from more listings. What they are trying to do is encourage more buyers to buy now and not wait for prices to come down. Individual realtors who list properties would definitely be encouraging sellers to drop their price but it doesn’t make sense for the cartel to make that public because it would send a message to buyers prices will continue to come down. This would result in less buyers which is what they don’t want. Unfortunately for them that is what we are seeing across BC.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 2

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    21

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 19

    RE: REBGV News Release. Fair coverage of the low sales numbers and lower HPI, even quoting prices from peak.

    Not sure what the strategy is around framing the normal, as in happens every year, drop in listings through the fall and to Jan. 1st as a result of sellers not wanting to budge on prices. The fact is that we see this behaviour in both falling and rising markets. The cynic in me says that the REBGV and FVREB are trying to pull some more buyers out of the woodwork by scaring them into thinking that sellers won’t budge on price and if you don’t act now on your dream home the seller just might pull it off the market!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    23

    “When a home seller isn’t receiving the kind of offers they want, there comes a point when they decide to either lower the price or remove the home from the market. Right now, it seems many home sellers are opting for the latter,” Klein said.”

    But aren’t we at near record inventory?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    24

    Troll: “The cynic in me says that the REBGV and FVREB are trying to pull some more buyers out of the woodwork by scaring them into thinking that sellers won’t budge on price and if you don’t act now on your dream home the seller just might pull it off the market!”

    Sales 101. There is a limited time, you must act now.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    25

    “But aren’t we at near record inventory?”

    Yes but due to a lack of buyers not a flood of listing. The flood of listings is still to come.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    Regarding the “sellers taking listings off-market” lines in the REBGV release, I think the hidden message (from REBGV to its REALTORS members) is this:

    “Ok team, the stupid sellers want to hold off selling. If you want your commission, you need to talk them off this plan and get them to lower prices instead”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    Jan 2013 vs 2012 SFH sales stats:

    
    

    Richmond: still sinking
    Sales: -29%
    Ratio: 18% vs 19%
    HPI: -6.3% (-6.5%,-4.2%,-4.0%,-4.2%,-3.7%) (YoY % change of past months) 

    
    

    Vancouver West:
    Sales: -3.5%
    Ratio: 25% vs 18%
    HPI: -7.5% (-5.5%,-8.4%,-7.7%,-6.5%,-3.7%,0%)

    
    

    Vancouver East: what happened to the hottest market in early 2012?
    Sales: -40%
    Ratio: 30% vs 40%
    HPI: -0.5% (+0.2%,+0.5%,+1.9%,+3.2%,+4.8%,+5.5%)
    Welcome to “Bear territory” Van East! (negative HPI YoY)
    First time YoY negative since July 2009!

    
    

    Burnaby: as predicted last month, HPI now negative YoY
    Sales: -22%
    Ratio: 24% vs 33%
    HPI: -2.3% (+0.4%,+1.5%,+2.4%,+4.2%,+5.2%)
    – Welcome to Bear territory Burnaby!
    – First time YoY negative since Aug 2009!

    
    

    Coquitlam: another ‘hot’ market in early 2012.
    Sales: -23%
    Ratio: 35% vs 43%
    HPI: +2.4% (+2.9%,+2.6%,+2.8%,+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%)
    – HPI YoY % grinding down

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 66 Thumb down 1

    While there is no doubt the governments involved dangled a few carrots in front of the organizers of TED talks in order to guarantee the economic spinoffs and benefits, the fact is there are still minimum thresholds for host cities to meet. If Regina, Calgary or a host of other cities offered said carrots, would the organizers be willing to bite. I don’t believe they would – Vancouver does have attributes that mesh well with this type of event (marketing wise).

    Regarding Hong Kong – it was largely geographic. It developed since it was the natural bridge to Asia following the British take-over. Laissez faire policies played a role, but it was hardly the only factor in understanding Hong Kong’s success. Also, try not to cherry-pick Asian economic development. In countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and at one point Japan, economic growth was the result of industry-specific government-sponsored incentives and regulations.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 6

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    29

    …and Whistler condos down 47.5% in the past 5 yrs. I recall they put a moratorium on new construction in Whistler 5 or 10 yrs ago…and they’re saying Vancouver’s geography will prevent prices from falling?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 40 Thumb down 1

    southseacompany Says:
    30

    Love those headlines:

    National Post:”Vancouver home sales continue downward spiral”

    http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/04/vancouver-home-sales-continue-downward-spiral/?__lsa=8c51-91b2

    Wall Street Journal: “Vancouver’s Housing Market Felt the Chill in January”

    http://blogs.wsj.com/canadarealtime/2013/02/04/vancouvers-housing-market-felt-the-chill-in-january/?mod=google_news_blog

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 32 Thumb down 2

    Only 4 days until gangheyfatchoi weekend. That’s bad luck. Just sayin’.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 4


    “When a home seller isn’t receiving the kind of offers they want, there comes a point when they decide to either lower the price or remove the home from the market. Right now, it seems many home sellers are opting for the latter”

    Like I said it before, I don’t think developers with projects full of unsold inventory have this luxury. They will cut their prices first or offer incentives that are of equal value. In fact they are already doing it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    33

    Vanpire “Like I said it before, I don’t think developers with projects full of unsold inventory have this luxury.”

    There are plenty of sellers that do not have this luxury. Death, divorce, job transfer, loss of job, expanding family, elderly that need to downsize or assisted living, unexpected repair bills like leaky condos, speculators with limited capital are a few more.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    HAM Solo Says:
    34

    Feeling more and more like a turn in market sentiment is on its way. Barrons and G&M similtaneously run P1 stories exhorting virtue of stocks, Davos summit concludes the financial crisis is over, a well-regarded portfolio manager I know who had turned bearish over the past year just fired. You can almost feel the “get me in clamour” in the markets.

    Meanwhile, is that a breadown from a long flat-line top in Home Capital Group? MIC finally creaking? The playing field of Canadian housing is showing crash/correction nationwide … maybe it is time for the scoreboard of the stock market to start playing catch-up. Also note, February was the top month in 2007 for the MSCI World, Commodities bull market of 2011 topped in early March.

    I feel TSX ex-commodities are within 6 weeks of a top here, sentiment wise. Gold group maybe an exception.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 3

    Today:
    >100 sales
    >300 listings

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 5

    REBGV are saying sellers are choosing to remove listing because in reality, they know that no matter what they say, sellers sell because they have to. So given what they say about sellers removing their listing has no effect on the sellers, they have hoping this will have an effect on the buyers.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2

    Short'em High Says:
    37

    @HAM Solo

    The virtue of stocks is that you can unload them and settle the funds in two business days. Like the partipants in RE speculation, most only check to see how they are doing after the mainstream media tells them they are wiped out or when the monthly statement arrives in the mail.

    FYI, Genworth and Home Capital usually both announce quarterly dividends in the next couple weeks:

    http://quote.morningstar.ca/Quicktakes/Stock/DivAndSplit.aspx?t=XTSE:MIC

    http://quote.morningstar.ca/Quicktakes/Stock/DivAndSplit.aspx?t=XTSE:HCG

    Genworth should be this week…

    Not sure what mental distrubance is gripping the holders of HCG with only 1.5% yield and trending down. Maybe they only check their statements once a year or believe mortgage lending still has some upside?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKQ3LXHKB34

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    New Listings 331
    Price Changes 93
    Sold Listings 117
    TI:14091

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 109 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    39

    Didn’t have to wait for long…..14K!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 1

    Happy 14K everyone!!!

    Nice to see another 300+ listing day.

    Saw some nice price drops here :http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

    Seeing some condo’s very close to 2007 prices. I wonder what BULL BULL BULL! would say about that?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 2

    Feb-2013	
    Total days	19
    Days elapsed so far	2
    Weekends / holidays	2
    Days missing	0
    Days remaining	17
    7 Day Moving Average: Sales	82
    7 Day Moving Average: Listings	241
    SALES	
    Sales so far	195
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1397
    Projected month end total	1592
    NEW LISTINGS	
    Listings so far	633
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	4090
    Projected month end total	4723
    Sell-list so far	30.8%
    Projected month-end sell-list	33.7%
    MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
    Inventory as of Feb 4th, 2013	14091
    MoI at this sales pace	8.85
    

    The MoI bottoms out for the year in Feb/March normally. If it bottoms out at 8.xx then man it is gonna be some year.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 44 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    42

    117 sales makes me wonder are there still that many desperate sheeps out there lining up for slaughter. Who is still buying the overpriced crap?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 3

    Februaries past:

    year	sell	list	sell/list			
    2002	3008	4035	74.5%
    2003	2760	3621	76.2%
    2004	3066	3944	77.7%
    2005	3068	4115	74.6%
    2006	2941	4340	67.8%
    2007	2859	4167	68.6%
    2008	2676	5260	50.9%
    2009	1480	3916	37.8%
    2010	2473	4606	53.7%
    2011	3097	5693	54.4%
    2012	2545	5552	45.8%
    Mean	2725	4477	60.9%
    median	2859	4167	68.6%
    

    2012

    1-Feb	38	305	12.5%
    2-Feb	155	251	61.8%
    3-Feb	122	249	49.0%
    4-Feb			
    5-Feb			
    6-Feb	113	325	34.8%
    7-Feb	140	281	49.8%
    8-Feb	127	265	47.9%
    9-Feb	85	229	37.1%
    10-Feb	94	234	40.2%
    11-Feb			
    12-Feb			
    13-Feb	133	314	42.4%
    14-Feb	147	281	52.3%
    15-Feb	112	254	44.1%
    16-Feb	110	252	43.7%
    17-Feb	148	225	65.8%
    18-Feb			
    19-Feb			
    20-Feb	141	317	44.5%
    21-Feb			
    22-Feb	135	239	56.5%
    23-Feb	108	222	48.6%
    24-Feb	112	220	50.9%
    25-Feb			
    26-Feb			
    27-Feb	107	294	36.4%
    28-Feb	179	294	60.9%
    29-Feb	145	239	60.7%
    

    2011:

    1-Feb	210	350	60.0%
    2-Feb	147	267	55.1%
    3-Feb	104	267	39.0%
    4-Feb	104	246	42.3%
    5-Feb			
    6-Feb			
    7-Feb	93	283	32.9%
    8-Feb	182	227	80.2%
    9-Feb	204	326	62.6%
    10-Feb	93	282	33.0%
    11-Feb	121	281	43.1%
    12-Feb			
    13-Feb			
    14-Feb	198	322	61.5%
    15-Feb	153	311	49.2%
    16-Feb	219	287	76.3%
    17-Feb	166	280	59.3%
    18-Feb	116	270	43.0%
    19-Feb			
    20-Feb			
    21-Feb	178	297	59.9%
    22-Feb	209	290	72.1%
    23-Feb	172	255	67.5%
    24-Feb	137	280	48.9%
    25-Feb	142	242	58.7%
    26-Feb			
    27-Feb			
    28-Feb	204	305	66.9%
    

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 1

    That’s some serious listing volume

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    Ford Prefect Says:
    45

    If the inventory figures for the Comox Valley on central Vancouver Island are anything to go by the real estate market has totally collapsed on this part of the Island. MLS Inventory in January around 785 units. Sales 36 units. Months of inventory, 22.

    These figures do not include shadow inventory (not MLS but much of it listed by Realtors on alternate sites) which appears to be very large but virtually impossible to measure. And of course does not include sales of same some of which may or may not be listed as MLS sales. Thus figures given are very conservative and devastatingly bad.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 1

    On a side note,
    Be careful out there, there will be a more frustrated and distracted people out there which probably will reflect in road rage and distracted driving..
    I am receiving a lot of scam calls.
    I noted at work more irritation and stressed co workers.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 4

    Thanks VHB, i was hoping someone would throw up previous years numbers!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    Short'em High Says:
    48

    @HAM Solo

    As VCI is filtering posts with supporting reference links you may never see my earlier post about MIC and HCG dividend schedules. Apparently if a post has more than one reference link it is filtered. That is an interesting filter rule. One link is OK but two or more links is automatically filtered. Couldn’t an offending post have just one link? VCI admin, please review your defaults and consider usefulness…

    Here is one without links in the (apparently) preferred unsubstantiated style.

    HCG July 2013 PUT open interest has ticked up very recently. No change in July calls…

    Root Strike Puts Last Chg Bid Ask Volume Open Int
    HCG 54.00 Jul 20 2.45 0.20 2.00 2.45 0 13

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

    Best place on meth Says:
    49

    331 people didn’t listen to the cartel and listed anyway.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 2

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    50

    It would be nice to have a big listings month, if for no other reason, it will force The Board to STFU with their ‘owners are pulling listings because they don’t have to sell’, bullshit montra

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    51

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 18

    Anonymous Says:
    52

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 18

    BRITTANNY Says:
    53

    Seems as though greed these days is starting to smell a little like panic. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck………

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    And the trolls come out… if prices remain flat from March to June that is a GIANT bearish indicator; prices have risen Mar-June in all but 2 of the past 18 years:
    Year Price change Mar-Jun
    1994 1.16%
    1995 -0.71%
    1996 0.68%
    1997 0.57%
    1998 -0.78%
    1999 0.80%
    2000 1.33%
    2001 2.18%
    2002 3.37%
    2003 2.81%
    2004 4.95%
    2005 5.02%
    2006 5.87%
    2007 4.97%
    2008 2.40%
    2009 0.91%
    2010 2.88%
    2011 5.17%
    2012 2.27%

    Or put another way, if prices don’t rise between March and June, that’s bad. And if prices do rise a bit from March to June, that’s not exactly good. Just look at those 2.27% and 2.40% rises in 2012 and 2008.

    Forget the spin, but for rhetoric’s sake I’ll put it in caps: “BULLS” NEED HEALTHY PRICE GAINS IN THE SPRING OR CHANCES ARE IT WILL BE VEWY VEWY BAD IN THE FALL.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 47 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    55

    http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV%20Stats%20Package%2C%20January%202013.pdf

    Am I reading Whistler Townhouses right? Index currently at 70, the indexes are set to 100 as of January 2005. Does this mean prices are 30% below the Jan 2005 level? Doesn’t seem right.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    2 days in and both 300+ listings per day.Boy are the bulls toast, they can finally shut the fuck up!!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 23 Thumb down 8

    Groundhog Says:
    57

    Sorry, Whistler apartments.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    I have seen some Whistler apartments at 70% off the original prices paid in 2007 as of recent, remember when times are tuff the toys are the 1st to go…lotsa foreclosures and Harleys for sale
    ..it’ll be interesting to see how boat sales do at this week’s boat show, car sales a little weak too a ton of lease takeovers available… Not to mentiondebt reconsolidation business is booming what’s everyone else seeing put here on the front lines?
    .

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 0

    @ Jesse my guess is that 2013 will be down 3% from last year putting it in the negative

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    market stats Says:
    60

    something up at Coast Capital, maybe this will be good

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    This document explains why we are screwed and why there is little hope for improvement in our lifetimes.

    “Perfect Storm: Energy, Finance and the End of Growth”

    http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/strategyinsights/TPSI_009_Perfect_Storm_009.pdf

    “The economy as we know it is facing a lethal confluence of four critical factors–the fall out from the biggest debt bubble in history; a disastrous experiment with globalisation; the massaging of data to the point where economic trends are obscured; and, most important of all, the approach of an energy-returns cliff-edge.” (p. 4)

    “First, bubbles follow an approximately symmetrical track, in which the spike in asset values is followed by a collapse of roughly similar scale and duration. If this holds true now, we are in for a very long and nasty period of retreat.” (p. 17)

    The report says the credit super-cycle that entered into crisis/deflation? in 2008 had been building for 30 years. So if the deflation of the bubble takes the same amount of time as the inflating of the bubble, we are in for hard economic times for the next 30 years, at best.

    But the report says Western economies will never return to their pre-2008 strength:

    “If the analysis set out in this report is right, we are nearing the end of a period of more than 250 years in which growth has been ‘the assumed normal’. There have been setbacks, of course, but the near-universal assumption has been that economic growth is the usual state of affairs, a rule to which downturns (even on the scale of the 1930s) are the exceptions. That comfortable assumption is now in the process of being over-turned.” (p. 11)

    “Unfortunately, this rise in inflation was masked by ever-more-misleading official data, such that real interest rates turned negative. Comparing American government bond yields with real (rather than officially-reported) inflation suggests that effective rates probably turned negative as long ago as 1996.” (p. 31)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    Jan 2013 SFH Battle Map:

    – As predicted in December, Bear Forces successfully invaded Van East and Burnaby South

    – Bear Forces are now stockpiling tanks in Burnaby & New West.

    – The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Port Coquitlam, N Delta, N Surrey.

    – Bulls’ grasp over Tri-cities & Surrey has been steadily loosening.

    – However, in January Bull Forces retook West Van & Tsawwassen.

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    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    63

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Short'em High Says:
    64

    http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canadians-personal-debt-levels-see-highest-spike-since-2009-1.1143288

    Transunion reports that BC is starting to slow (top out) in personal debt increase. BC is highest but had the lowest increase in Canada. It appears the increase in debt Canada wide per month was roughly $125 per month extra in 2012. I wonder what does $125/mo typically buy these days? What was the must have expense besides home upgrades and iphones?

    I’m rooting for them. Hopefully they can hit some sort of record that surpasses modern Greece or even ancient Rome before it completely collaped! Burn baby burn!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    65

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says: “then you’ll have to wait 7 more years for prices to bottom”

    Sounds about right. That 7 years will be much more painful for you than the average bear waiting to buy. After all our net worth isn’t evaporating before our eyes. Just ask the average home owner in the US how the last 7 years has been. Should be fun as a spectator.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 29 Thumb down 0

    Many Franks Says:
    66

    @Short’em High: Also coverage here mentioning refinance trouble. I wonder to what extent British Columbia’s exceptionally low debt growth in this period compared to the rest of Canada reflects the anecdotal examples we’ve been hearing here about lenders blacklisting certain markets… Personally, I doubt BC consumers have suddenly developed financial prudence. I’ll bet they hit availability limits.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    67

    I really hope this is a big listings month so that the RE board and associations will be forced to STFU with their new mantra: sellers are pulling listings because they don’t have to sell and they won’t settle for a price they’re not happy with….blah blah blah.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0

    From Dr. Tim Morgan’s report “Perfect Storm” linked to below:

    “Both economic and fiscal reporting have been subjected to incremental massage and deliberate obfuscation to the point where policymakers, investors and the public really have no accurate conception of our economic predicament.

    Data distortion can be divided into two categories. Economic data has been undermined by decades of methodological change which have distorted the statistics to the point where no really accurate data is available for the critical metrics of inflation, growth, output, unemployment or debt. Fiscal data, meanwhile, obscures the true scale of government obligations.

    Much of the detailed analysis provided here is drawn from the United States, but this requires a cautionary note. It is NOT our contention that the US is the worst culprit where misleading statistics are concerned. Rather, the raw data required for an unravelling of statistical distortion is more readily available in the US than in other countries which lack America’s data transparency. Additionally, the United States is fortunate in that it possesses analysts willing and able to untangle the statistical mess (even if few policymakers are any more prepared than their overseas counterparts to listen to the uncomfortable conclusions resulting from these analysts’ labours).”

    p. 43

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Bag it and tag it Says:
    69

    Oops…sorry about the re-post. When I tried to post last night on my ipad, the page crashed with the server error. I just noticed that it posted. Bad day yesterday for this site. Are the hackers back??

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    70

    @Bull! Bull! Bull!

    I have spoken to a couple people as of late who bought townhouses in 2007, 2008 in the suburbs. They thought they were pretty smart for a few years, but I can tell you they’re feeling some regret. One said to me the other day, “I don’t know what I was thinking.” He’s now considering selling, even though he knows he won’t get what he paid in 2007. He should come out with some equity if he sells now, but not much, and if prices decline another year I doubt he comes out with any equity. I got the feeling he’s going to list it soon at an aggressive price and take whatever offer he gets. He wants out, he only bought as he thought it was a good idea and now that he sees the risk of loss he just wants out.

    Its funny cause I’ve brought up the risks a couple times over the years but he was never willing to listen to anything, now he was happy to listen. Seems to me the party might be winding down and the hangover starting. And no, I don’t have any regrets from not participating.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 29 Thumb down 0

    My comments on the excerpt on data distortion I just posted from Perfect Storm:

    -His point that the US has more data transparency is also my experience doing research in my field. It is easier to get data on the US than on Canada.

    -This guy is giving a huge nod to bear bloggers similar to the ones on sites like VCI! He is thanking the American “analysts willing and able to untangle the statistical mess”. That sounds like bear bloggers who present us with their well reasoned analysis on the blogosphere because mainstream sources would never report this stuff. To those who contribute data and analysis to the VCI website, I would take this as a pat on the back. You guys are doing the important job of shining a little bit of truth, sanity, and sound logic to this little fiefdom of British Columbia, which has its own problem of distorted data released by real estate boards and banks and other vested interests.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

    Many Franks Says:
    72

    Some interesting G&M criticism of the Homebuyer’s Plan, and over at CMT, an even worse stat on repayment:

    CRA told us last Wednesday that almost one-half of HBP participants (47%) “paid less than the full required repayment amount in tax year 2011.” (2011 is the latest data available.)

    I don’t think it’s remotely palatable for the gov to wind down the HBP, bad as repayment stats may be.

    I also wonder what the trend is in those repayment stats. Could an increase there be a predictor of higher defaults to come? If household books aren’t balancing, then an income tax hit will be preferable to stiffing the bank.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    73

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    74

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Anonymous Says:
    75

    From Bloomberg

    Australian Homebuilders Can’t Give Them Away: Mortgages
    Australian homebuilders are resorting to discounts, gift cards and help with mortgage payments to lure reticent buyers.
    Stockland (SGP), Australia’s biggest residential developer, is giving rebates and gift cards of as much as A$30,000 ($31,300) in Victoria, Queensland and New South Wales states. Devine Ltd. (DVN) is matching deposits in South Australia and taking over mortgage payments for as long as a year in Melbourne. Peet Ltd. (PPC) has been offering discounts of as much as A$50,000 in Western Australia, Queensland and Victoria.
    Central bank interest rate cuts of 1.75 percentage points since November 2011 have failed to spur housing demand amid slowing job growth. New home sales in December were 6.6 percent below the level of a year earlier, and loan approvals to build or buy new homes the same month were 31 percent below an October 2009 peak.
    “The discounts this time ’round are bigger than we’ve seen before because the response we’ve seen to rate cuts has been far more muted,” said Stuart Cartledge, managing director of Melbourne-based Phoenix Portfolios, part-owned by Cromwell Property Group. (CMW) “Affordability based on mortgage costs has improved, but people are worried about losing their jobs. House buyer confidence isn’t there.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    76

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says: “We all know how good bears are at predicting things”

    Um, it was your prediction.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

    Latest REBGV HPI imposed on my price drop model:
    http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Crash-Curve-Graph?pid=389#pid389

    The HPIs continue to show remarkable correlation to the model.

    I know some people feel that the bubble is “popping” very slowly here. But so far at least it seems to be following the same trend we saw in US cities that saw a 40% drop in prices.

    If it continues to follow that trend we won’t have to wait 7 years to see bottom – just a little over two years.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 37 Thumb down 0

    Short'em High Says:
    79

    @Bull! ^3

    Is there something about your cultural background that prevents you from considering the profit factor of other investments besides RE? You paint a picture where the only investment in the world is RE.

    Here is a chart of something that increased not by 100-200% but 500% and anybody with a few hundred dollars could get in on it.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/cp-nortel/

    Furthermore, everyone had the opportunity to participate again on the way down for a few hundred more percent.

    These opportunities come up all the time in the finacial markets. So I ask again, why are you pushing your once in a generation measly 100-200% gain as the best use of money? Is there something in your ethnic, cultural, or religious background that prevents you from seeing the opportunity in other investments or the concept of misallocation?

    It is a misallocation to bet everything on one roll of the dice. When you go to the casino, do you immediately head for the table where you can bet your entire bankroll on one hand?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Democrass Says:
    80

    “Central bank interest rate cuts of 1.75 percentage points since November 2011 have failed to spur housing demand amid slowing job growth.”

    There you have it. Even cutting rates will not re-inflate a bubble that has popped.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    81

    CRA told us last Wednesday that almost one-half of HBP participants (47%) “paid less than the full required repayment amount in tax year 2011.”

    Missing any amount of a HBP repayment makes that amount taxable income in the year in question.

    Having to pay income tax on money you didn’t receive this year. Just the thing homedebtors need.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0

    UBC in crisis mode Says:
    82

    In UEL (Van West) the listing has been tripled (usually 5 for $2 million+ properties, now 15). Here is a new one:

    http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V988749&REBoards=All&From=MLS

    Asking: $11,800,000
    Assessed: $5,844,000

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    Short'em High Says:
    83

    House payments, car payments, credit card payments plus a new baby. No way out of debt…

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/fp/yourmoney/Police+from+Lethbridge+Alta+wanted+disappear+hoax/7920935/story.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    Best place on meth Says:
    84

    “Even cutting rates will not re-inflate a bubble that has popped.”

    It didn’t work in the US in 2008 either.

    Canada now has no cuts left to make.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0

    @b5baxter

    It drives me crazy when “experts” speak of a slow decline, flat conditions etc when like you mentioned we are running right up there with Miami and Las Vegas in terms of month over month drop from peak

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 0

    Re: #78

    “Even cutting rates will not re-inflate a bubble that has popped”

    Markets eventually reach a stage (like the US in 2007) where nothing can save them, and when gravity is defied beyond all rational expectations, that gaping pit just becomes deeper.

    But “cutting rates”??? What the hell are you thinking???
    The storm clouds on the horizon are all pointing to HIGHER rates.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    Wakeup call Says:
    87

    WOW #58

    You forgot a zero in your guess, Right?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    No Noise Says:
    88

    @17 Chabar

    Thanks for noticing this story and posting it:

    http://www.theprovince.com/alleged+Asian+crime+boss+escaped+Vancouver/7915274/story.html

    Other than a little online blurb in the Province there’s been nothing else on MSM about this a$$hole. Every day the first news story is yet another drunk hockey rioter with no priors who gets 30 days house arrest – big deal – when real criminals like this and others have wreaked more death and misery in Canada than any rioter ever could. And it’s taken 17 years to come to trial to have the chance to deport the bastard when he was a known criminal to begin with! What’s really on trial here is the Canadian government. Can they do what is necessary and then pass laws to prevent this in the future? If the Conservatives want my vote in 3 years they will.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0

    #76 b5baxter,

    Nice graph. If we continue that trajectory, most of the damage will be done in 2014. In less than 2 years from now, you could begin making the case to buy. But even after a 40% drop, RE will probably just barely outpace inflation like it has historically. There’s also the dual headwind of rising rates & downsizing boomers.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    No Noise Says:
    90

    @86 No Noise

    And if you dont think these criminal networks are laundering their money through Vancouver RE your kidding yourself.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

    Many Franks Says:
    91

    Jeez. I was enjoying Dear government: We’ll stop borrowing money when you stop giving it away, which includes the succinct gem…

    [The Bank of Canada] can’t afford to prevent Canadians from borrowing what they can’t afford to pay back.

    …right up until the deus ex machina popped out of the clouds…

    It’s up to the citizen to solve this mess. Canadians should absolutely stop borrowing money unless they are absolutely confident that they can afford to pay off the interest when — not if, when — interest rates begin to return to normal.

    Right, like that’ll suddenly start happening.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    Democrass Says:
    92

    “The storm clouds on the horizon are all pointing to HIGHER rates”

    This idea has produced lots of head-fakes in the last few years. Is the current buzz about “higher rates soon” another head fake?

    Can someone spell out the case for “higher rates soon”? I really don’t know what is the case for higher rates .

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    HAM Solo Says:
    93

    @ Short ‘em

    More important than HCG / MIC dividend announcements is they are also reporting financial results.

    That BC is now melting down / collapsing province-wide, must be having an effect on MIC. By my estimate about 25% of their book is backstopping BC high loan-to-value mortgages. Someone might ask them about it on their call. Employment in Whistler, Okanagan, Vancouver island, Kootenays is weak. House prices in these areas down 20% from 2007 peak. There must be mounting foreclosure pressure there. And the severity of losses for MIC must be large. People I know who work in bankruptcy practices in Vancouver have never been busier.

    All we need is for one auditor to force one board into a moment of candor about losses and the SHTF for all of the risk-bearing Canadian mortgage financials. Either next week or in May, but it’s coming.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    No Noise Says:
    94

    @62 Bull!Bull!Bull!

    You said:

    “aren’t you glad you listened to the bears? lol…”

    Yes I am glad I listened to the bears and sold last summer. hahahahaha

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    95

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Short'em High Says:
    96

    @HAM Solo re: Genworthless/HomeCrapital

    MIC.TO should be this week if consistent with previous years. Let’s see if they opt for malfeasance instead of disclosure like smoothing over one more quarter …hoping for a miracle. We can also see if the dividend amount was worth the $3-4 premium that was paid recently in the $19-24 run up.

    For a study in investor psychology I think HCG.TO is even more remarkable at this point. I would love to harness the mental disturbance responsible for bidding up a mortgage finance stock that pays less than a savings account! In a week or so HCG.TO will announce their paltry 0.25-0.4% quarterly if consistent with previous years.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    LocustLand Says:
    97

    Can someone spell out the case for “higher rates soon”? I really don’t know what is the case for higher rates .

    Because household debt spiked 6% at the end of 2012 and 34 million financial illiterates don’t understand that at some point you have to actually pay back the money you borrow. The stupidity of the general population is outweighing the negative affect a stronger loonie would have on whats left of our manufacturing sector. Every time I look at the daily sales I think theres another 84 dumb assholes I will have to bail out in 2 years.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    No Noise Says:
    98

    @ Bull!Bull!Bull

    I was listening to the bears but it wasnt until the bulls reached a critical mass that it was time to get out – now when most of the bulls like you are curled up in a fetal position sobbing uncontrollably it will be time to get back in again ;)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    Many Franks Says:
    99

    Regarding trends in HBP participants not meeting their repayment obligations, I couldn’t find much direct information, but I did find this:
    – In 1995, 78,000 out of 229,000 participants failed to meet repayment obligations (76,000 of those making no repayments at all).
    – From Canadian Tax Journal, Vol.55, No.1, p.12:

    …in 1995, more than a third of hbp holders who were required to make a repayment made none [24] and for later years I estimate that the proportion not rebuilding their RRSPs was in the same range. [25]

    If valid, this would put the proportion of HBP participants not meeting their obligations at a stable 1/3 between 1995 and 2007. If that level has risen to 1/2 since then, it’s a considerable jump. If anyone has more concrete data, I’d love to see it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    Democrass Says:
    100

    But what is the mechanism by which the following (a spike in household debt)lead to higher rates? I’m not trying to be a smart-ass; I really don’t get it.

    Someone needs to connect the dots.

    “Because household debt spiked 6% at the end of 2012 and 34 million financial illiterates don’t understand that at some point you have to actually pay back the money you borrow. The stupidity of the general population is outweighing the negative affect a stronger loonie would have on whats left of our manufacturing sector. Every time I look at the daily sales I think theres another 84 dumb assholes I will have to bail out in 2 years”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Democrass #90

    You just need to look at the direction of bond yields over the last 6 weeks. Looks like the private sector has stopped dancing to the music from central banks.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    102

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Short'em High Says:
    103

    re: “higher rates soon”

    This doesn’t matter as long as rents are low. Governments can’t manipulate forever. Take your unused cash and wait for the point when the markets have their fill of the BS. If bonds, they will have some rapid decline convexity at these levels. Canadian dollar could also take a beating. When/if they start to move, go with the trend.

    Don’t worry about rates. When the music stops it won’t matter what the overnight rate is. The market will beat the central bank to a bloody pulp and if you are positioned you will make in a few months 10 times what the most successful RE flipper or speculator ever did with the same capital over 10 years.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    The private sector not dancing to central bank music is sort of like Joe Homebuyer not listening to Tsur and Cam anymore.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    “The market will beat the central bank to a bloody pulp and if you are positioned you will make in a few months 10 times what the most successful RE flipper or speculator ever did with the same capital over 10 years.”

    Could you enlighten us on what kind of position would make such outsized returns? Thanks,

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    106

    Is Short’em High Romeo Jordan?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 3

    No Noise Says:
    107

    @100 Bull!Bull!Bull!

    I’ll respond to your first comment (the other 2 don’t make sense):

    In RE investing (or any type of investing) there’s a time to be bullish and a time to be bearish and now is the time to be bearish, simple as that..

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0

    Short'em High Says:
    108

    re: “outsized gains”

    You probably already know the answer but I will indulge. Suppose CAD moves 10 cents. With $50k account you can control/scale into $2M. 10% of $2M is $200K.

    There are instruments which track the various maturities of bonds with the same sort of leverage.

    The trick is to be patient and fluid. Thus, I say don’t worry about what the central bank says the overnight rate is. Just look at the rate relative to important exchange rates (or commodity prices). A 1% overnight rate is a different thing when the dollar is only worth 90 cents. The government can’t hide. If the central bank timing is wrong, it is exactly then when your timing will be right.

    In the meantime, there are some nice snacks that will easily pay your rent. Maybe these are even ones related to firms that are stepping into bubble lending with insufficient hedging. See my earlier post.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    Surrey is the “centre of the action” for Metro Vancouver’s Indian community. Retailers in Vancouver’s Punjabi Market are relocating to Surrey. From the Vancouver Sun:

    “The distinctive yellow street sign for the Punjabi Market at 48th and Main has faded so much you can hardly read it, which is symbolic of the changing fortunes of Vancouver’s premier South Asian shopping street.

    Several businesses have moved out in the last couple of years, leaving some high-profile vacancies in the heart of the market, which has run along Main from 48th to 53rd since the 1970s.

    Last year it was the Frontier Bridal Boutique, which left for a new location in Surrey after four decades on Main…

    The Guru Bazaar purchased its new location in Surrey.

    “That’s the future,” said Khurana. “We could have purchased something on Main street for a similar price, maybe a little bit more. But … where are the customers? Why do you want to be in a place (that is) kind of out of the way, why not be in the centre of the action?”

    Anil Nanda of Nanda Jewellers said that established businesses like Nanda do well at the Punjabi Market because they have a long-term clientele.

    “We have customers coming in from Surrey, from Langley, from Poco, everywhere,” he said. “But for smaller businesses, some of the clothing stores, the movie shops and whatnot, they’re definitely suffering because of the lack of foot traffic.

    “We have suffered from that, too. Before there were 22 jewelry stores on Main Street, now there’s a handful, maybe five or six. Some closed down, but a lot of them have opened in Surrey.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    “We could have purchased something on Main street for a similar price, maybe a little bit more. But … where are the customers? Why do you want to be in a place (that is) kind of out of the way, why not be in the centre of the action?”

    The rise of this kind of thinking is a big shake up to how we think about Metro Vancouver. Rents are higher in City of Vancouver due to price premium to be in a central location. When people start regarding Surrey as the “centre of the action” then you can’t justify a rent premium in Vancouver relative to Surrey anymore because Vancouver isn’t as central anymore to the population and to the economy. When businesses snub locations in Vancouver because they want to be in Surrey closer to their customers that tells you that the population base and the economy in this metropolitan region are shifting east towards Surrey.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    mclovin mclovin Says:
    111

    Short em high:

    “You probably already know the answer but I will indulge. Suppose CAD moves 10 cents. With $50k account you can control/scale into $2M. 10% of $2M is $200K.”

    And if the CAD moves 2.5 cents in the wrong direction you are wiped out completely with a margin call likely.

    What you are referring to is speculation and gambling in its purest form outside Vegas red/black.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 26 Thumb down 8

    An outhouse is for rent in Vancouver for $1100 per month.

    http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3567628590.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 0

    HAM Solo Says:
    113

    Another Genworth MIC quarter in the books. Nothing to see here, folks, move along now…

    Well, if you look at the only page of the MIC financial statements that has any bearing on what is really happening in their business (note 4 in the footnotes) one does see a few interesting details.

    Real estate acquired, that’s their term for a foreclosure, is up 48% y-o-y.

    Also, if one carefully extracts the quarter-by-quarter trend in losses on “real estate held” one will see that the $76 million worth of foreclosures sold in the 4th quarter were sold at a price 19.5% below the insured value of the properties. In other words, if MIC had insured a Yaletown condo mortgage at $1 million, when it came time to sell the foreclosed property, they only got $805,000 back.

    That loss on RE foreclosed either indicates that a) the prices of the properties being foreclosed upon is falling hard, or b) that the properties were never worth their appraised value in the first place. Knowing a little about the hoodlums involved here, I would guess it is a combination of both.

    What might give the bulls some relief is that the foreclosure volumes are still quite low (although the trend is strongly up and to the right). My guess is that the “Alpine credit” type kiting lenders are helping to temporarily prop up a number of truly desperate borrowers. Either that or the banks themselves are buying in to the “prices won’t go down if no one lists” meme. Like every other prop-job, it won’t last.

    Interesting to see what happens to MIC stock tomorrow. The company exhibits a complete lack of sensible loss reserve accounting (akin to a P&C insurer being six hours away from a massive hurricane and yet not reserving for losses because they haven’t had any lately). Will this accounting-based “earnings” report fool the QE-impaired market again, or will the serious longs start connecting the fairly obvious dots and start building some future losses into the valuation?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 0

    I just noticed that I forgot to include the link for the Vancouver Sun story on businesses in Vancouver’s Punjabi Market relocating to Surrey. For those who may be interested, here is the link:

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/surrey/Change+Punjabi+Market+businesses+depart+Surrey/7917710/story.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    New Listings 280
    Price Changes 72
    Sold Listings 72
    TI:14249

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

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    chilled chilled Says:
    116

    OK, I guess I will have to drive to Surrey to buy my 100lb bags of onions.
    =====================================================
    Q Says:
    February 5th, 2013 at 4:34 pm

    I just noticed that I forgot to include the link for the Vancouver Sun story on businesses in Vancouver’s Punjabi Market relocating to Surrey. For those who may be interested, here is the link:

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/surrey/Change+Punjabi+Market+businesses+depart+Surrey/7917710/story.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    asalvari1 Says:
    117

    I predict 160… or more….

    …. up-votes on paulb stats post today

    :-)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 2

    It must be the weather, it never rains in Vancouver

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 2

    Groundhog Says:
    119

    Wow, looks like sales continue to be sluggish. I heard a mortgage lender ad on the radio yesterday wishing me gungheyfatchoi, whats that all about?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

    “CRA told us last Wednesday that almost one-half of HBP participants (47%) “paid less than the full required repayment amount in tax year 2011.” (2011 is the latest data available.)”

    There is no “full required” repayment amount, unless it’s the last year and the full amount is due.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 3 Thumb down 9

    Short'em High Says:
    121

    @mclovin re: “CAD moves 2.5 cents in the wrong direction you are wiped out”

    My remarks were only illustrative. The bankroll amount, whatever it is considered expendable in the RE ponzi palace or flipping scheme would be the amount expendable in the liquid macro market instrument(s). The difference is loss will be limited to the specified amount and much more leverage is available when needed.

    As explained above, you would not put on the entire position equal to net worth. Some expertise is required other than listening to stock tips, reading newsletters, or ginned up quarterly reports. Money management, market timing, economic calendar, etc are important. If you don’t know how or can’t understand what I’m saying then please DON’T try what mclovin suggests.

    Nevertheless, the ability to bet against central bank manipulation is available on demand and in massive scale compared to RE or stock equity alone. I do recommend trading the opportunity as it arises including opportunities in equities. As suggested, if central planning fails to anticipate a crisis, those that know how are in the position to indirectly drain the accounts of those who think their RE or stock investment is safe and beyond reach.

    I’ll let Daniel Day-Lewis’ character from “There Will Be Blood” explain in a more dramatic way. “Drainage!!!!!”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKQ3LXHKB34

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    Not good, not good… :?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 3

    Group Masterbator Says:
    123

    Looks like 15K party next week!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 3

    Many Franks Says:
    124

    @Devore:

    There is no “full required” repayment amount, unless it’s the last year and the full amount is due.

    Not true, or perhaps I misunderstand what you’re saying. See CRA:

    Generally, for each year of your repayment period, you have to repay 1/15 of the total amount you withdrew, until the full amount is repaid to your RRSPs.

    If you fail to pay off your 15th in a given year, the excess amount gets included in your taxable income. That makes it generally undesirable to fail to repay (though there are probably some cases like income splitting or employment changes where this is good math).

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    126

    @Someguy

    Looks like we’re joining the ranks of Monterey and Long Beach in the contest for BPOE.

    “began in 1984 and was held in Monterey, Calif., for many years before moving to Long Beach for the last five years.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    Quantifying the “Chinese New Year Effect”

    Avg-sales   2011      2012
    CNY-1wk   142(100%)  82(100%)
    CNY+1wk   133(94%)   98(120%)
    CNY+2wk   171(120%)  131(160%)
    CNY+3wk   162(114%)  115(140%)

    – Avg CNY vacation in China ~ 2 weeks
    – 2011 CNY = Feb 3; 2012 CNY = Jan 23
    – Setting the avg daily sales of 1 week prior to CNY at 100%:
    – It appears that peak sales were logged in the 2nd week post-CNY reaching 20%-60% above pre-CNY levels.
    – I’ll revisit this few weeks after 2013 CNY.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 33 Thumb down 6

    604 Receding Gains Says:
    128

    Great stuff VMD (as usual).

    Since some sales can have a long closing period (3 months) the impact of CNY sales may be much longer than a couple of weeks. Although with so many units vacant now the impact this year should be quicker than prior years.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    604 Receding Gains Says:
    129

    Calling all angry Bears (and Slavs).

    I was so irritated by Global TV reporting on real estate a few nights ago that I cranked out another letter/missile plus target media regulatory agencies to aim at. I’ve posted the letter and email addresses for complaints against media reporting in the Vancouver Peak forum. Copy, paste and fire at will!

    http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Elbowing-back-at-media

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0

    604 Receding Gains Says:
    130

    Form Letter aimed at media regulators:

    Dear Sir/Madame:

    We all remember the false and misleading behaviour of the news media during the technology “bubble” of the late 1990s and early 2000s. In both the US and Canada many people lost substantial sums of money due to the cheerleading of certain media outlets. After the dust settled it was found that many of these media outlets and “economic correspondents” had conflicting interests – owning the stock of companies they were actively reporting on and actively pumping.

    The same is happening today in Canada with news reporting of the current real estate market. Many reporters and news organizations, most notably Vancouver’s branch of Global TV (CTV network), are delivering hyped up media and false/misleading reports on the status of the real estate market in BC. I believe this is also true for CTV’s Toronto reporting. A defining characteristics of such coverage is (i) one-sided reporting (i.e. “prices are about to take off”), and (ii) interviews with real estate agents and staff of real estate companies who have a clear conflict of interest in the current market. The behaviour goes beyond sensationalist headlines designed to boost circulation and sell ads – these news correspondents appear to be actively pumping the market for personal gain.

    This is a request for you to improve the transparency of media reporting on real estate investment holdings.

    Please request Global TV and other major news organizations adopt the following simple policy: All news reporters covering the real estate market must disclose if they own investment property in the region that is covered in their report. Note disclosure of their principle residence is not required, only investment properties that they do not live in.

    Similar policies are used for stock market analyst reporting on TV and radio every day. This is not a significant expansion of existing conflict of interest policies, and real estate investment property should be monitored and tracked similar to other types of investments.

    Examples of poor journalism and potential conflict of interest can be found here:
    – links to “news” stories provided in Vancouver Peak forum

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 0

    604 Receding Gains Says:
    131

    THREE TARGET MEDIA REGULATORS:
    1. Consumer Protection BC.
    Email: info@consumerprotectionbc.ca

    2. Canadian Broadcast Standards Council.
    Email Address: complaints@cbsc.ca

    3. Canadian Association of Journalists
    Box 280
    Brantford, ON N3T 5M8

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    Is Group Masterbator Romeo Jordan?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2

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