The $519,000 line

Democrass pointed this out in a comment over the weekend, I’m just taking his thought and running with it.

As of this posting it’s February 25th 2013.

The cheapest freehold house in Vancouver currently for sale is listed with an asking price of $519,000.

It’s on a very busy street and shows an interior size of 1260 square feet. It’s located on Marine Drive near the foot of Victoria on a 30×80 lot.

Let’s re-check listings in February 2014 and see what $519k will get you.

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[…] recently discussed the $519k line, which is where the lower end of SFH prices are currently. It will be interesting to watch the […]

Brian Ripley

Regarding “The $519,000 Line”

I have an ongoing study set at the $750,000 line.

My attempt is to see when Vancouver listing prices in 4 select neighborhoods make a significant move to the downside on my Vancouver Housing Chart page here: (scroll down the page)

The Select Area Chart URL is:

There is still no major move down in listing prices yet in Van West, Van East, North and West Van.

Only 5% of this select area is priced under $750,000. East Van “leads: the group with 14% of their listings (JAN DATA) priced below $750k

It’s still pretty sticky out there.


deleting comments is keeping this realtor a lot busier than selling real estate:)

[…] “I’ve been following this market for a long time. Also, for almost 20 years, I have had some close friends who are realtors (and did it in the years when real estate was just something that people needed to live in – – without all the BS hype). In the past month, I have seen serious changes in behaviour indicative of desperation. There was also a quote that “Everyone in my office has had to take a second job to ensure steady cash flow.” I don’t think we are here to gloat in the misery of others but with sales numbers like we have now, commissions are down 50% in the past 2 years and for those on the fringes, this is pretty much poverty. . . Quick tidbit – – Attached is showing listings declines with some areas… Read more »

Short'em High


Based on your MOI posting, it would seem that you have an input column in your model called “new listings” per day that is equivalent to PaulB’s daily new listings number.

May I ask, what is the mean and standard deviation of all numbers in that column?



@89 Vote Down The Facts

It was 19% last year in US and probably 20% in South Africa, but isn’t that bubble burst in US? I have no idea about South Africa’s state of economy, but according to some sources they have their own bubble

Vote Down The Facts

“It is? How does it compare to other countries?”

Was that not a reasonable question? If you look at this line you’ll see that it’s formed at least 10% of the US GDP since 1947:

I also found an OECD link that suggested the figure is 20% for South Africa (or was in November 2010)


Uh-oh, looks like another SCARED REALTOR™ posted a comment on the Vancouver Observer blog that related the tale of the “Empty Open House”…. Marketing is basically “smoke and mirrors” so just get over it… And go buy a condo. Please. I need to eat this month. L. James February 26th 2013 | 9:09 AM So if a quiet open house means people are going to wait for prices to drop 30% does an open house with 30 people through mean that the market is going to explode again?! The Realtor who is involved in this article is not doing his sellers any favors thats for sure! Also, he quotes the MAC Marketing “scandal” in which he does not know the story clearly. Dan is in real estate and he knows that his marketing is not always truthful, as it… Read more »

painted turtle

I am also into buying land, but I gave up on rental properties and houses too far away to be maintained. Too much hassle…
Re-growing trees can be a low maintenance project.


“…Chinese families tend to invest almost twice as much of their money in urban real estate than do American families…It would also take a [big] drop in prices for the market to collapse, as Chinese buyers tend to put down larger down payments. If [real estate] stalls abruptly, the rest of the … economy could follow… The problem is that the Chinese tend to put their money in real estate because they perceive it as a safe and reliable investment. This drives up prices, which leads more Chinese to invest, which drives up prices more. But because people are treating housing as an investment, the market is artificially inflated. People buy apartments but don’t live in them. One day, it’s possible that Chinese consumers will wake up and decide that those investment apartments aren’t such safe investments… That will lead… Read more »



I agree with JR. – Bellingham is really really nice.

But i also with Short’em and others that it’s simply too much hassle to buy and rent your property in the states. If you really want to hold land, have you looked at other parts of canada? Searching for agricultural land on the MLS is a great way to kill time. It’s amazing what you can pick up for under $200k in nova scotia. 75+ acres with riverfront for 95k. 8 acre hobby farm with house and barn for $109k etc.

Media Collusion

From today’s Financial Post:

Almost half of Boomers say they are not interested in downsizing homes: survey
“The survey conducted in September by Leger Marketing found that 43.5% of respondents who are born between 1947 and 1966 and are looking to move, want another primary residence that is a similar size or larger than their current property.”

Wouldn’t it make more sense for the headline to be:

More than half of Boomers say they are interested in downsizing homes: survey

Vote Down The Facts

“How about 19% of GDP related to FIRE industry in Canada? That’s scary.”

It is? How does it compare to other countries?


…..Cam McNeil soon to be Walmart greeter, rumor has it resume from hundreds of RE agents showing up atvvarious dept stores, for reals Just sayn..

It’ll never work! The sales course for Walmart takes longer than the RE course.


“Ferreira said there are a few projects opening in the next few weeks that will indicate whether the new immigrant Chinese buyers are still hesitant. The Carrera by Polygon is opening on Minoru Boulevard across from Richmond Centre Mall and Concord Gardens by Concord Pacific is opening near the future Capstone Way Canada Line station.”


horseshit, you people like to make stuff up, do you not!


“How about 19% of GDP related to FIRE industry in Canada?”

Does anyone have a figure for BC?


From the link below at #76

“And here’s the really scary number: 13 percent of Chinese GDP in 2011 came from real estate investment. 13 percent! If that investment stalls abruptly, as it did in Phoenix Island, the rest of the Chinese economy could follow. That could cause political instability in China and, much more certainly, would set back the global economy.”

How about 19% of GDP related to FIRE industry in Canada? That’s scary.


“An alleged Asian crime boss is expected to appear before immigration officials today, as federal lawyers try to have him removed from the country.

Lai Tong Sang and his family arrived in Vancouver in October 1996, but police in Macau have described him as the leader of a notorious gang (called Wo On Lok).

Reports written by the RCMP and U.S. law enforcement officials allege the gang is a branch of the Hong-Kong based Wo group, which has a worldwide reach and is involved with money laundering, prostitution, drugs and human smuggling.”


“Singapore seems fed up with residents using their real estate for speculation purposes.”

If the government were really fed up it would bring in tougher measures than this:

Singapore plans to raise taxes for luxury homeowners and investment properties, widening a four- year campaign to curb speculation after prices in Asia’s second- most expensive housing market rose to a record.

The higher tax will apply to the top 1 percent of homeowners who live in their own residences, or 12,000 properties, Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said in his budget speech yesterday, without giving a definition of what constitutes a high-end home. The government will also raise tax rates for vacant investment properties or those that are rented out, he said.



Nova and Emerald condos in Richmond are screwed. 10 to 15% of the whole buildings are on mls. Death spiral.

Mike Sewerard

Cam McNeil soon to be Walmart greeter, rumor has it resume from hundreds of RE agents showing up atvvarious dept stores, for reals Just sayn


@#70 YLTNboomerang
Realtor’s assistant – just need to find a realtor who can take you (and the associated liabilities) on. Don’t even need a license for that I believe.

Since we’re on the topic of MLS access. Does anyone know if the actual “Sold price” or “Sold price history” is consider private REBGV data? Is it permissible for non-realtors to gather Sold price data (let’s say, via anonymous emails) to generate a database for public perusal free of charge? (Without mentioning the actual MLS listing # of course)


Picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer?