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jesse
Member

Gen worth and CMHC are not the same. Ask a bank.

RaggedyRenter
Member
RaggedyRenter

@Anonymous

$50B increase?
To put the number in perspective.
in y2012, Genworth increase their insurance in force by $35B
CMHC in y2011 by 53B (don’t have 2012 numbers).
Keep in mind that CMHC is tapped out and Genworth is expected to carry a larger load, so I don’t think that $50B is going to last.

Aleksey
Guest
Aleksey

I’m ok with 30% correction. It amazes me how many people are not aware of the fact that 30% decline in prices compensates 43% hike.

Yalie
Guest
Yalie

but then people will be even more less willing to buy, and retiries even more willing to sell. by your logic, prices will go down forever. that’s obviously false. which is impossible. therefore, your logic is flawed.

Huh? I haven’t heard reasoning like that since the Chewbacca defense on South Park.

http://www.myspace.com/video/life-39-s-a-bitch-ain-39-t-it/the-chewbacca-defense/9759740

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

all arm-chair housewife economists concentrate here. 8 years of whinning and counting.
change your lives today, contact your local real estate agents. you will soon realize there is good life in the best place on the universe.
well, maybe, your life is already good here, you just dont have the gutt to admit it. otherwise, you would have packed and left for ottawa already.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“I’m willing to bet anyone on this blog $5000 that there will not be a greater than 30% decline in the housing index in Metro Vancouver over the next 5 years.”

So, 30% is not a crash?

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

“You guys are going to be so wrong about a crash because your logical analysis excludes some important factors that you (deliberately?) choose not to look at.”

Can you enlighten us with what is not being looked at?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

You guys are going to be so wrong about a crash because your logical analysis excludes some important factors that you (deliberately?) choose not to look at.

I’m willing to bet anyone on this blog $5000 that there will not be a greater than 30% decline in the housing index in Metro Vancouver over the next 5 years. Tell me where to sign! Draw up the agreement!

I’m a renter but most posters here are clueless. It seems everybody is an expert these days as long as the internet is a click away. Good grief!

Specuskeptic
Member

http://www.cbc.ca/thenational/watch/ (Search page for “The Bitumen Issue”

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Raggedy:

Ever heard of Genworth?? No need to use CMHC anymore or worry about its limit.

Specuskeptic
Member

Anyone catch CBC National’s “Bottom Line” panel tonight? Talk was of “Bitumen Bubble” but two fo the panelists (Jim and Preet – gawd bless ’em and their cotton socks) used the words “Housing Bubble” in a sort of off the cuff fashion as if it’s a done deal and common knowledge. Well… THAT was interesting.

(CBC hasn’t posted the bit on their website yet – will get to it if I have the presence of mind to do so later tonight)

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

+102 inventory today

Still have a slight chance of 16K, which would be a first for Feb.

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

South Surrey sale
MLS# F1301420
Assessment – $571,000
List – $549,900
Sold – $529,000

4% below list, 7% below assessment

RaggedyRenter
Member
RaggedyRenter
@Hey You Guys My original thought was the bubble’s floor would be determined solely by a function of interest rate and mortgage terms. Strictly abiding by this rule, we probably won’t see a crash (35% and up). However there other external events that will probably carry this bubble down. Psychology, unemployment, credit tightening. Let’s look at credit tightening for a second. There’s no political appetite to increase CMHC mortgage holding. This will punish people who need CMHC insurance to purchase their house (those with less than 20% DP). Banks also can’t purchase bulk insurance anymore. Thus they will be forced to carry the mortgage on their balance sheet and can you guess what their risk appetite going to be like in a declining market and increasing mortgage default? Would the smaller boutique mortgage firms get crushed if there’s no CMHC… Read more »
jesse
Member

VHB posted daily totals in February from the past two years. We should expect to see higher sales the second half of February. It is still well below even last year.

I don’t know if things will markedly improve in the spring. In order to hit Muir’s target sales for 2013, the remaining three quarters will need to put in some strong numbers. I remain sceptical

Eddie
Guest
Eddie

Sales have been up a bit for several days now. Looks like that $50B the government gave Genworth has made it to the market. Crooks!

Hey You Guys
Guest
Hey You Guys

@gokou3

>Guys, don’t feel the troll. You know whom.

sorry for trying to have a discussion. i can see that differing perspectives aren’t welcome here. i won’t be back. i’ll let all of you get back to your circle jerk.

VultureBoy
Guest
VultureBoy

“I think MAC marketing won the PR battle, by keeping quiet. No CBC or CTV follow-up so far.”

Maybe, but it is questionable that they will survive the upcoming condo bust. They have a permanent internet black eye, and demoralized employees. Even companies exercising best practices will be stressed in the coming years.

VHB
Member
VHB
Total days	19
Days elapsed so far	12
Weekends / holidays	7
Days missing	0
Days remaining	7
7 Day Moving Average: Sales	114
7 Day Moving Average: Listings	256
SALES	
Sales so far	1160
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	798
Projected month end total	1958
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	3281
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1789
Projected month end total	5070
Sell-list so far	35.4%
Projected month-end sell-list	38.6%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of Feb 19th, 2013	15251
MoI at this sales pace	7.79

If you don’t get MoI down to 6 in Feb/March, you’re never gonna get there at all for the year.

The sales projection has come up toward 2000. But that’s actually pretty bad for February.

year	sell	list	sell/list
2002	3008	4035	74.5%
2003	2760	3621	76.2%
2004	3066	3944	77.7%
2005	3068	4115	74.6%
2006	2941	4340	67.8%
2007	2859	4167	68.6%
2008	2676	5260	50.9%
2009	1480	3916	37.8%
2010	2473	4606	53.7%
2011	3097	5693	54.4%
2012	2545	5552	45.8%
Mean	2725	4477	60.9%
median	2859	4167	68.6%
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

If anyone has a Yelp account you can put a review in for Mac Marketing. The reviews are permanent and cannot be deleted as long as they meet Yelp guidelines.

MAC Marketing Solutions is an envisioning, marketing and sales organization specializing in residential and resort real estate.

MAC currently operates throughout the Greater Vancouver region, BC’s Interior and Calgary.

http://www.yelp.ca/biz/mac-marketing-solutions-vancouver

paulb
Member

New Listings 259
Price Changes 93
Sold Listings 106
TI:15251

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“I think MAC marketing won the PR battle, by keeping quiet. No CBC or CTV follow-up so far.”

Google ‘Mac Marketing’. 8 out of 10 pages that come up are related to their fraud. That alone is a disaster for them.

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

I think MAC marketing won the PR battle, by keeping quiet. No CBC or CTV follow-up so far.

patriotz
Member

The terms “soft landing” and “bubble” are vague and have no agreed upon definition.

“Investors are prepared to buy houses they will rent out at a loss, just because they think prices will keep rising—the very definition of a financial bubble.”

Pretty simple and precise wouldn’t you say? That definition is agreed upon by everyone who doesn’t have a vested interest in overpriced RE.

http://www.economist.com/node/4079027

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
@Gokou3 “the psychology hasn’t changed.” “It has. The optimists like you are now arguing why RE prices won’t go down much. A year ago (or was it less?) you optimists were arguging why it will keep going up. See the change?” Agree 100%. The psychology changed last year well before the mortgage rule changes. It changed on it’s own, without any of the external factors oft cited by local academics that were needed to see a drop in house prices. Now with a lot of people you can start to have a reasonable conversation about housing, that hasn’t been the case for many years. And if I’m wrong, I’ll happily continue renting and enjoying life. Bloomberg has a good headline right now: “China Housing Slaves Helping Property Rebound: Mortgages” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/china-housing-slaves-helping-property-rebound-mortgages.html Life’s purpose shouldn’t be to own a house before dying,… Read more »