Vancouver house prices ‘flat’ like San Diego

b5baxter updated his crash curve graph over at Vancouver Peak.  This is what he posted in the comments section on this site:

Latest REBGV HPI imposed on my price drop model:
http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Crash-Curve-Graph?pid=389#pid389

The HPIs continue to show remarkable correlation to the model.

I know some people feel that the bubble is “popping” very slowly here. But so far at least it seems to be following the same trend we saw in US cities that saw a 40% drop in prices.

If it continues to follow that trend we won’t have to wait 7 years to see bottom – just a little over two years.

…That’s right. The current rate of price declines in Vancouver that some have described as ‘flat’ is actually falling at the same rate that US bubble cities fell at their peak.

68 Responses to “Vancouver house prices ‘flat’ like San Diego”

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    OT anecdote.

    Just came back from a family trip to Big White. As usual, I enjoyed occasional conversations with random people on lifts. Here is one of those chats.

    A gentleman in his fifties from some small town close to Edmonton. We started with sharing recent skiing experiences and discussing runs and current conditions. He turned out to be a retired person on his three-month getaway on Big White. Not bad, I thought to myself, perhaps just another retired business owner.

    I have mentioned that the village and the mountain looked deserted. Really, the resort is very quiet this year and I will not be surprised when I hear some not very optimistic news about debt restructuring, bankruptcy etc. It is a bit busier on weekends when locals from Kelowna come there, but on weekdays you will see mostly retirees and families with children who stay there for a week or so.

    He said something about the current recession. I shared my opinion: Canada didn’t see the actual recession yet, cheap money, people borrowing and spending like crazy and so on. He gave me one of those looks and turned on the MSM mantra about sound Canadian banking system (no, he haven’t heard about the bailout for Canadian banks: http://bit.ly/WvxRON – excuse me if this was mentioned here already), healthy Canadian stock gains (look, no bubble), strict mortgage rules (yeah, it’s different here) and all that jazz. He “politely” concluded that the top one percent will do fine and the low-income folks will be hit hard.

    When we were approaching the top station, we agreed to meet on this chair lift in five years and see who was right. He assured me that he will be on BW in five years because he had a pension that allowed him to come here regardless of the economic conditions, and he said he was a school teacher. Unfortunately, I didn’t ask him if he rented or owned something on BW.

    PS BW has plenty of snow and some nice lift ticket discounts this year btw.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 2

    Apocarypse Mao Says:
    3

    Global National reports on China Housing Bubble:

    “Global National : China’s housing bubble” Feb 4/13

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9Xy2RDBJQU

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    Real Estate Weekly- newest edition Feb 8th- front page

    “TIPS ON BUYING WITHIN A JOINT VENTURE”

    highlights:
    -say 2 friends are renting apartments at $1200 a month, they realize they can combine their savings and buy a house!
    -after holding the property for a while, they can then sell and share in the equity appreciation!
    -pooling resources to buy a first home can be a smart move towards financial security
    - According to slimyAssed realtors (except Paul),it’s a plan that’s used widely and is very successful!

    WTF- can you think of anything more dodgy than jumping into a real estate investment with 3 friends? at this time in the market? or at any time?

    this is the Westside/Downtown edition.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 1

    Could someone kindly explain what’s the price drop model based on? When I clicked into the link, it looks like it’s related to the San Diego SFH price history from peak.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    Democrass Says:
    6

    “WTF- can you think of anything more dodgy than jumping into a real estate investment with 3 friends? at this time in the market? or at any time?”

    It works because real estate always goes up :) There is a sucker born every minute.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 0

    it isn’t clear what this “model” reflects. Is it an average of Case-Shiller values with 3 standard-deviations as the “band”, a max-min or what? Is it based on a structural variable method? otherwise it is data mining – undercircumstances should it follow the US trajectory?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

    Hahaha… The $1 richmond listing did not sell:

    http://www.shuchatgroup.com/Blog.php/richmond-condo-for-sale-for-1…-cont-d

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

    Genworth MIC earnings call this morning. Interesting listening, there should be a link to the replay at the MIC website.

    Important thing to understand about this company is that, in theory, it is reporting mortgage insurance premium revenues and claim payment costs based on a three year lag. The reasons for the lag is because at some point they the three year point was the point of maximum loss.

    However, given that we know business turned down and losses shot upwards in the 2009-2010 window (esp in Alberta), that would cause them to report declining earnings in 2012-2013. So what they have decided to do is to change their assumptions about long-term loss performance so that earnings from the bad period grow, magically. Not sure if the Bay Street analysts take that entirely as being fair cricket, and there were lots of questions about that. However, to the extent the discussion focusses on that point, which is really the rear-view mirror, it helps MIC by removing attention from the forward view.

    The big upward bump in losses vs book value (their foreclosures only sold at 80.5% of MIC’s insured mortgage value in Q4) was explained away as “cleaning up” the last of the bad Alberta losses from the ’09/’10 weakness.

    Looking forward, management mentioned “BC” for the first time in my recollection as a market that is getting worse for claims. In the disclosure, they show 16% of their $300B book as BC, so $48B insurance in force in this market, a little lower than the $55B I had estimated earlier. But still not comforting to them that they have written 16x their total book equity against high LTV mortgages in a clearly collapsing market.

    The best part of the call from my point of view was how they SOUNDED. If you listen to conference calls from companies who are doing well, management is often quite calm, comfortable and speaks with clear elocution and pace. Listening to CEO Brian Hurley on this call is painful. He is talking in short bursts with these uncomfortable pauses … every three seconds or so … to catch his breath. You might expect that from a rookie CEO, but this is Hurley’s 13th or 14th quarter as a public company CEO. There were wonderful tells on his mumbled lines – including a great bit where he is discussing the fact that Genworth’s liabilities are guaranteed by the government “in the remote event of our business insolvency.” That line was mumbled down his sleeve in the manner of a guilty nine year-old caught plagiarizing his homework assignment from the World Book encyclopedia.

    You get the feeling even they don’t believe their story, which in a nutshell is “there is a soft landing” and “our underwriting is conservative” – a bunch of hooey that not even the bank-employed cheerleader/analysts can re-spin with a straight face.

    What MIC has going for it is really just the natural 12 month lag between when the BC housing market hit the fan in mid 2012 and when these foreclosures are mature enough to hit MIC’s books in mid 2013. That and the enthusiasm for its massively overpriced stock by various slow-learning yield pigs which will disappear at the first signs of reported trouble.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 32 Thumb down 2

    There’s a BC-heavy post from Ben Rabidoux at the usual place. Spot on, as usual.

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    Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE Says:
    11

    Nice graph.

    A +40% SD like drop could be a tall order, but I would not be surprised if our race to the bottom will be faster.

    Let’s not forget that the US housing bust came out of left field in early 2006 with a stable economy and gathered steam despite falling rates. With warnings splashed all over magazine covers and financial publications, our bust is much more widely anticipated.

    That dramatic drop in int rates after the US financial disaster gave our market a last gasp since 2009. Those rates now look poised to start climbing again. Asian and Euro money that hit our shores in 2011 is long gone perhaps in search of greener pastures (if there’s any left). The price to income ratio is still ludicrous. The economy looks fragile, and demographics couldn’t be worse.

    Not that we need excuses for an obvious price decline, I just think it will speed up the process…then again, maybe that 40% drop doesn’t look so daunting after all.

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    40% still leaves us miles above fundamentals.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 1

    So don’t get me wrong, I LOVE the comparison to San Diego, however we should keep things in perspective. If we align Case-Shiller data from San Diego against Vancouver, San Diego saw significantly faster run-ups than did Vancouver over the past decade. Further there was more home building in San Diego than Vancouver in general and that contributed to more supply overhang, and finally the second “leg” down coincided with the US recession and a crimping of their mortgage market.

    Another comparison that could be made is to San Francisco or Seattle/Portland, that never fell as brutally as did SD, and although they did fall it was not -40%.

    To directly compare Vancouver and other US cities aligning peaks is a good way, though I took another approach and aligned the “troughs” to each other. To stress test Vancouver I made the bold assumption of the trough being pre-1990s instead of the 1990s like in the US, reason being if Vancouver is in a longer-term secular bubble its fall could be more extreme.

    Here are the results

    In terms of magnitude, if one assumes that Vancouver is in a longer-term bubble — and other cities were not — it has a peak of similar magnitude to the worst of the US cities.

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    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    14

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    I want to thank B5Baxter for creating this graph. Thank you.

    It really helps visualize where we are esp. as C/S data is comparable to Teranet’s data. Also it’s amazing to see that the FrankenHPI seems to indicate the same decline despite the multiple changes board made to how it’s calculated.

    Even more amazing is the fact that not one local journalist bothers to come by this site, see this graph and become curious enough to do their own research.

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    Anonymous Says:
    16

    …40% still leaves us miles above fundamentals….

    I agree! It’s going to take 70% to flush this turd of a bubble to Iona where it belongs.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 4

    Bull,

    Here are the crib notes for you. Go back and read what Baxter says, namely: “…some people feel that the bubble is “popping” very slowly here. But so far at least it seems to be following the same trend we saw in US cities that saw a 40% drop in prices.”

    Primary message: This graph shows the rate of decline here compared to the ultimate, and disastrous, decline in San Diego. But makes no prediction about the future. As we know the Teranet and HPI lines could flatten out at any time.

    However, spokespeople for real estate interests and our media repeat that we are in a flat market using the recent past performance to predict the future. This graph challenges the underlying assumption that our current “slow” decline is proof that it will stay that way by demonstrating the similarity of the beginning of the decline in our city and that of San Diego– a minus 40 city. Nasty.

    With so much potential downside for people in the Lower Mainland, it’s odd that no journalist uses this graph to question real estate spokespeople.

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    MadasHell Says:
    18

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Johnny_O Says:
    19

    Hello everyone, it’s been a long time (2005/2006) since I’ve commented but I still watch some of the topics posted on this blog.

    Anyway, I’ve come across a few articles, see below, in the last few years that has only confirmed what I’ve always thought of what
    drove the buying frenzy in Vancouver in the last decade. I actually had a dinner concersation wirh a Colliers commercial sales rep
    A while back in 2010 where I suggested the US should do the same as Canada in terms of saving their housing collapse by allowing
    High net-worth asian investors buy housing properties in exchange for a Canadian cirizenship. Well it looks like the USA is starting
    To see some areas rebound pretty good wirh an influx of new HAM.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-06/corruption-so-pervasive-it-makes-us-look-good-compariso

    Now I’m not saying this alone helped drive the Vancouver/Richmond property through te roof, but the herd menatlity created by
    The realtors stories of plane-loads of buyers coming into Canada everyday to buy housing probably had a lot to do with it.

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    February days with sales<100

    2011: two
    2012: three
    2013: two**

    ** (We're only 3 business days into the month…16 days to go…)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 80 Thumb down 2

    LocustLand Says:
    21

    Johnny_O Says

    Agree 100% Johnny_O. And our esteemed Immigration Minister was prancing around the entire time wearing his little red housecoat – absoutley disgusting.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    22

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    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 24

    Re #22:

    Ya, you bulls certainly won’t miss the bottom by holding.

    – Cashed out in 2011.

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    Anonymous Says:
    24

    jesse: “the second “leg” down coincided with the US recession and a crimping of their mortgage market.”

    Do you not think we will have a recession and a crimping of the mortgage market here after real estate prices in Canada take their first leg down? As things get worse we will see further tightening and we will see a massive loss of jobs. I don’t see how we can avoid a recession and there is no way lenders do not tighten if real estate is falling in value.

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    Just did a big piece on 2013 RE predictions on a couple Chinese forums and for my RE column. Also submitted to “Epoch Times” newspaper where printing date is being arranged. Below is the brief English translation:

    Bullish Factors for Vancouver RE:
    1. Chinese economy/stock market showing some sign of ‘recovery’ in early 2013. Some ‘HAM’ may ended up in Vancouver RE.
    2. HST expires in April, good for new home market.
    3. Interest rates remain at historical lows. (But also means can’t drop like 2008-09 again)
    4. QE4 and coordinated monetary easing may offer short-term boost to stocks/economy. But its sustainability and how much flows into Vancouver RE is questionable.

    Bullish Factors for Vancouver RE:
    1. BC population grow continues to slow, worst in 8 years. Inter-provincial outflow accelerates.
    2. Immigration policy continues to tighten in 2012-13. Immigrant investors decline; language proficiency more strict; crack-downs on Quebec/Maritimes provincial-nominees who move to GTA/GVA against agreement.
    3. Household debt making new highs exceeding US peak levels.
    4. BC household income increase sluggish. Poor job market outlook. Poor RE sales will drive down income of related fields (RE agents/mortgage brokers/lawyers/builders/hardware stores/banking etc). Because Vancouver economy is heavy on RE-related fields, the impact will be worse.
    5. Baby boomers(1946-1964) 1st wave already reaching 67, becoming net-sellers of rE.
    6. Canada’s “Population dependency index” (>65+<15)/(15-65) will rise rapidly in 2013-2015 and continue to rise for 15 years until stable. Taxes will rise, demand for RE will fall.
    7. CMHC rules tightened in Jul 2012, effect will continue to be felt.
    8. OSFI rules tightened in Nov 2012, more effect will be seen in 2013.
    9. OSFI rules for mortgage insurers to be released in early 2013, will negatively impact RE (according to OSFI execs).
    10. MSMs already widely reporting RE bubble and risk, negatively influencing market psychology.
    11. Worldwide economy yet to exit from crisis. Euro/China/Japan/US all potential risks.
    12. BC condo's depreciation report due by end of 2013, maintenance fees set to rise (need more contingency fund), bearish for condo strata.
    13. GVA condo starts/completions continue to rise in 2012-13, worsening supply/demand imbalance.
    14. Finance Minister Flaherty publicly states "pleased to see RE declining" and sees household debts as "greatest internal threat to Canadian economy". However, newest report in Feb/13 still shows increasing consumer debt (+6% YoY). Putting more pressure on government to further tighten lending.
    15. BC general elections occurs in May, with NDP currently leading in polls. A NDP government is often viewed as negative for RE.

    - My actual prediction is the same as the one at VCI Prediction Contest.

    - Can someone enlighten me on how exactly a (potential) NDP government is bearish for RE? Thanks!

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    Very Little Gravitas Indeed Says:
    26

    @#22

    Hoping for almost a decade while others have won the lottery and cashed out.

    So, your recommendation is to get out? One of us!

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    @VMD
    - meant to say 15 ‘Bearish’ factors for Vancouver RE, of course.
    - hoping to get it published by this weekend, just in time for the “HAM” (if they exist) to read during their CNY dinner outings. (it’s a free newspaper distributed at the entrance of many Chinese restaurants)

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    Anonymous Says:
    28

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 18

    Was just reminded re: the HST transition tax rules for new RE purchases.
    FYI:
    “For newly built homes where construction begins before April 1, 2013, but ownership and possession transfer after, purchasers will not pay the 7% provincial portion of the HST. Instead, purchasers will pay a transitional provincial tax of 2% on the full house price. ”

    -The temporary housing transition measures will be in place for two years, until March 31, 2015.
    -A new temporary housing transition tax of 2% will generally apply to purchasers of new homes where at least 10% of construction has begun before April 1, 2013, and ownership and possession transfer on or after that date.
    see http://www.hstinbc.ca/buying_goods/buying_a_home/

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    Best place on meth Says:
    30

    China takes one tiny step toward being slightly less of a shithole:

    http://news.yahoo.com/china-cleaning-illegal-black-jails-153155556.html

    Only 100,000 steps to go.

    Now if Canada could take a step of their own and stop admitting these disgusting thugs into our country that would be just swell.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 29 Thumb down 6

    “- Can someone enlighten me on how exactly a (potential) NDP government is bearish for RE? Thanks!”

    Refer back to 1990s. BC economic performance went from best in Canada to worst. That’s really all you need to know.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    32

    ” Hoping for almost a decade while others have won the lottery and cashed out. ”

    Very good analogy as the wins of the few are necessarily exceeded by the losses of the many.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 0

    “yep 2005/2006 and silly bears are still waiting…life isnt fun hiding behind the keyboard!”

    Actually some condo’s are back to 2007 prices and we are just getting started. Creep back in a few months.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 29 Thumb down 1

    @VMD: Those bearish factors are like 35 lb barbell plates stacked on an egg. Its really hard to see how bulls are going to escape from this.

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    New Listings 267
    Price Changes 63
    Sold Listings 67
    TI:14403

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 140 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    36

    Yikes!!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    Larry Lou Says:
    37

    Ole Larry over at Yatter does not matter, must be cranky as nothing is selling.. i have recently posted a few non offensive replies to his posts and he has not posted them. He also maintains that his mega listing estate house takes a minimum of 18-24 months to sell… lol if it was priced correctly it would have been sold a long time ago. 8.5 million for a creaky old tear down….keep dreaming Larry

    might as well up the price to 8.888,888 and pray

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 37 Thumb down 1

    Looks like 15 K party in Feb- 16K party in March 20K by June

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 1

    Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE Says:
    39

    This Feb will blow out the record for minus 100 listings days!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 31 Thumb down 3

    Another great day!

    How many more data points do people need to see this market is cooked!

    How many Realtors are going to be telling their clients, drop your price or I’m dropping the listing? These guys will not keep putting good money after bad if the listings are priced too high to move.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 2

    From Garth’s site

    Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is reporting sales are up compared to last year, so I did some checking on the boards own data base. This is what I found:

    Sales of Single Family Homes:
    Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2012= 714
    Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2013= 264 (A drop of 63%)

    Sales of Attached Units:
    Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2012= 525
    Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2013= 209(A drop of 60%)

    Total Single Family Homes + Attached:
    Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2012= 1239
    Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2013= 473 (A drop of 62%)
    ====================================

    These sales declines are horrific! How in the world they can spin this into “sales are up” in simply fraudulent …, I pity the fools who are trusting in their diception …

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    Buffates Says:
    42

    We’ll have a shot at 16K this month for sure

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    canadian Says:
    43

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    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 14

    Total days	19
    Days elapsed so far	4
    Weekends / holidays	2
    Days missing	0
    Days remaining	15
    7 Day Moving Average: Sales	78
    7 Day Moving Average: Listings	269
    SALES	
    Sales so far	334
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1176
    Projected month end total	1510
    NEW LISTINGS	
    Listings so far	1180
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	4032
    Projected month end total	5212
    Sell-list so far	28.3%
    Projected month-end sell-list	29.0%
    MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
    Inventory as of Feb 6th, 2013	14403
    MoI at this sales pace	9.54
    

    Criminy. If the sales don’t pick up soon, February 2013 is at risk of falling under February 2009 numbers.

    Have a shot at 16K by the end of February.

    year sell list sell/list
    2002 3008 4035 74.5%
    2003 2760 3621 76.2%
    2004 3066 3944 77.7%
    2005 3068 4115 74.6%
    2006 2941 4340 67.8%
    2007 2859 4167 68.6%
    2008 2676 5260 50.9%
    2009 1480 3916 37.8%
    2010 2473 4606 53.7%
    2011 3097 5693 54.4%
    2012 2545 5552 45.8%
    Mean 2725 4477 60.9%
    median 2859 4167 68.6%

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 47 Thumb down 0

    Canadian I didn’t verify them. I just copied the post from Garth’s site.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Democrass Says:
    46

    Here are some sales from January 29, 2013, as posted at Real Estate Talks:

    214-2250 Wesbrook Mall
    Leasehold strata
    List 749
    Reduced 698k,668k
    Sold 618k
    Assessed 667k

    1221 W 41 ave
    Big 8126 sq ft lot
    List 1,688k
    Sold 1,635k
    Assessed 1,724k

    56 W king Ed ave
    Nice 4600 sq ft home on 7500 sq ft lot
    List 1,980k
    Sold 1,930k
    Assessed 2,243k

    2837 w 43 ave
    List 2,298k
    Sold 1,975k
    Assessed 2,088k

    2005-1067 w Cordova st
    1 bdr 900 sq ft at Shaw towers
    List 749k
    Reduced 738k
    Sold 700k
    Assessed 755k

    1101-2020 Highbury st
    List 1,575k
    Sold 1,292k
    Assessed 1,394k

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    Bear! Bear! Bear! Says:
    47

    Equity in the rear view mirror may appear larger than it is….

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 41 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    48

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 11

    Jikes is right, CNY is in four days, VMD has indicated sales will bounce mildly the last week of the month.

    If things don’t improve my 99 daily sales prediction is going to look mighty silly!

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    specuskeptic specuskeptic Says:
    50

    Gettin’ that 2008 feeling – looking at that graph, seeing these numbers. Never thought it possible to have data even approach that but here we are.

    Waaay too early for a victory dance IMVHO but I am cautiously optimistic that we are at the cusp. A fun yet disturbing thought exercise to play would be to imagine what policy shift could fuck this up… We had various iterations of QE and low interest rates and that space for adjustment is now gone. It really is hard not to believe that, this time, it’s real.

    To quote Rummy, “There are known unknowns and unknown unknowns.” I’m wary of those unknown unknowns….. Timing it is for rubes and to avoid Rummy and stress around when to pull the trigger, the tried and true “buy when it’s cheaper than renting” dictum is a winner.

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    Mike Stewart claimed on Garth’s blog that there has been an “increased activity” in downtown Vancouver over the last few weeks. I guess that means practically all of today 67 sales must have been in the downtown core. Surprisingly, Mike did not have any data to support his declaration. Good luck to that guy’s clients.

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    Democrass Says:
    52

    “Canadian should be capitalized. Show some respect to Canada.”

    I think he was making a joke that Canadians are under-capitalized.:)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    Bo Xilai Says:
    53

    Financial Times of London is catching on to Mark Carney’s legacy of near ZIRP, overpriced Vancouver real estate and sky-high debts.

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/47ee21dc-7045-11e2-ab31-00144feab49a.html#axzz2K9IVgpE9

    Unfortunately you have register with FT to get access to the story, but I’ll post some of the essentials:

    Canada housing cloud cast over Carney

    “Desperate times demand desperate measures. When Jordan and Russ Macnab, estate agent brothers in Vancouver, Canada, had a glamorous single-bedroom apartment, priced at over C$600,000, that was stubbornly refusing to sell, they decided on a marketing innovation: the “crib crawl”.

    They rented a limo bus, stocked it with drinks and snacks, and took a party of possible buyers on an evening tour to see the apartment in question and about half a dozen others, in a mobile viewing party.

    The experiment was not a complete failure: the Macnabs attracted a lot of interest, and are developing a television series based on their idea. They are planning their second crib crawl next month.

    As a way to shift slow-moving inventory, however, it was a flop. Not one of the apartments they showed found a buyer. Vancouver, which until last year had Canada’s strongest growth in house prices, is now its weakest region. The number of homes sold in the greater Vancouver area dropped by 23 per cent last year.”

    “… it was the decisions by the Bank of Canada under Mr Carney’s leadership to cut interest rates during the crisis and hold them down subsequently that enabled a surge in household debt and house prices. While American consumers were running down their debts, Canadians were adding to theirs, so that by the end of last year household debt was 165 per cent of income, in the same territory as the peak in the US at the start of the crisis.”

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 39 Thumb down 0

    @ Jesse
    in 2011 & 2012 Jan/Feb sales did peak at +20% to +60% (vs 1 week pre-CNY) in the 2nd week post-CNY.

    bulls better light up those incense and pray for one heck of CNY buying spree this year. Realtor-written pump pieces are finally showing up in media re: arrival of CNY HAM, but people are now quick to call these out as nothing but hot air.

    In fact, several people point out that even if these “RE Buying Tours”
    do arrive, very few do result in actual sales. Many people use the realtors as simple free tour guide/chauffeur service to tour around town.

    If a ‘decent’ uptick of sales in latter half of month does not materialize, it’ll put Feb 2013′s MOI at ~8. For comparison, Feb 2012 MOI was 5.5, Feb 2011 MOI was 3.9.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    55

    …..I actually had a dinner concersation wirh a Colliers commercial sales rep….

    Woha there cowboy! Did he pull out his brass balls and give you the ‘ABC’ speech? The only thing more full of shit than a common Realturd is a Commercial Realturd.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    Best place on meth Says:
    56

    “Mike Stewart claimed on Garth’s blog that there has been an “increased activity” in downtown Vancouver over the last few weeks.”

    That’s right, MOAR listings!

    Mike is such a worthless pumper.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0

    Vmd, there have been predictions of higher or flat sales this year by various Realtor firms and re boards. With sales slower this year even than last there is going to have to be some heavy volume increases or…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    canadian Says:
    58

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 13

    Again stolen from Garth’s site:

    Here are a few examples of White Rock active listings that have had large price reductions and still remain unsold …

    MLS F1223103
    Original List Price $3,488,000
    Current List Price $2,950,000
    Price Reduction to date: $538,000

    MLS F1226197
    Original List Price $3,288,000
    Current List Price $2,499,000
    Price Reduction to date: $789,000

    MLS F1227373
    Original List Price $3,598,000
    Current List Price $2,900,000
    Price Reduction to date: $698,000

    MLS F1302805
    Original List Price $2,828,000
    Current List Price $2,228,000
    Price Reduction to date: $600,000

    MLS F1300389
    Original List Price $3,188,000
    Current List Price $2,388,000
    Price Reduction to date: $800,000

    MLS F1226740
    Original List Price $3,288,000
    Current List Price $2,748,888
    Price Reduction to date: $539,000

    There are too many to list but I think you get the idea …

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    Re: #59

    Where’s the yellow heli full of HAM when you need it?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    Thank you for your questions about the graph.

    - It is based on the Case-Shiller index for San Diego
    - It is for comparison purposes. I have no idea if it will be predictive.
    - San Diego and Vancouver are two different cities. With many differences. And some similarities. San Diego is…
    > “running out of land” (ocean to the west, international border to the south, mountains to the east and military reserve to the north)
    > it has great weather
    > you can ski, sail, golf and surf in the same day
    > it has many immigrants continuously moving there (although perhaps of a different socio-economic status than those in Vancouver)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    62

    White Rock’s under a deluge of listings and new supply coming on board for condos too. Take a look at the FVREB release, condo prices down 16.3% over 5 years.

    Also, Jan 2013 MOI for condos @ 18.43, Jan 2012 was only 1308

    But as Bull! Bull! Bull! would respond, its White Rock stupid, not Vancouver. Vancouver’s different.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    63

    @Mclovin

    All of those except F1226197 are mostly a few 100K over assessment still. F1226197 is $68K under assessment.

    There is almost literally no sales happening in White Rock/South Surrey, I have a feeling all of those have quite a ways more to go.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    64

    @Mclovin #49 and Canadian

    Yes, those stats from Garths on FVREB sales being down 60+%
    are just plain wrong. The stats were pretty horrible, but not that bad

    Total Sales Jan 2013/Jan 2012: -22.8%
    Detached: -19%
    Townhouse: -28.5%
    Apartment: -24%

    Thats for Jan, in regards to Jan 1 – Feb 6, the Jan sales are higher then those posted on Garths site for Jan – Feb 6 so no matter how bad Feb’s been they’re still wrong.

    http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201301.pdf

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    65

    And to their credit, they didn’t say anywhere that sales are up. In fact, the headline read:

    “Home sales slow to near historic levels in Fraser Valley as
    buyers watch and wait from the sidelines”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    oneangryslav2 Says:
    66

    @53 Bo Xilai (oh, thank you for gracing us with your presence!)

    For those interested, you can read FT articles (and I think this still works for WSJ content as well) by searching with the full title name in Google.

    Some interesting comments at the end of that FT piece. Two are most interesting. Dickens (A Tale of Two Cities) would be proud:

    Canada1 | February 6 11:04pm | Permalink
    Vancouver is unique in the world. the most amazing landscape, skiing and sailing 12 months of the year, a restricted pacific ocean view, looking west for the sunsets over the ocean and east for the sunrise over the glorious coastal mountains. This location is unmatched any where in the world and the pricing of the property has not even begun to reflect the stability of the country, it’s political system, banking, immigration, integration, commodities, fresh water and equality of diversity. These prices will, in my opinion keep going up for many years.

    And then there’s this:

    DraganBC | February 6 8:59pm | Permalink
    Priced out, bailing out.

    I left Vancouver for Chicago a few weeks ago with a hope I’ll settle over here. Vancouver has nothing to justify it’s real estate highs, no quality jobs, no headquarters of the big firms, no events. A total dump to second momento_mori. It is a corrupt and hostile place full of half literate, uncultured lumberjacks also called Canucks. If the US ever open to the Chinese money, Canadian real estate will go down the drain. 44% of population in the Greater Vancouver were not born in Canada, many more aren’t from Vancouver. No problem for them to leave if the opportunity presents itself. Those that are paying millions for mere sheds are doing that with the stolen money; it’s a give away for them anyways, but they would also like to have more for what they are paying.
    Canada is in the advanced phase of the Dutch disease. The whole Canadian success is based on other counties’ stupidity and when that is corrected, there’s nothing’s left but the resources, just like in Russia.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 2

    #41 McLovin. AS many who have come before you and made the same mistake – - you can not do such a query as you have made.

    You have checked for sales in Jan 1 – Feb 6 in FVREB in this year and last. However- – you can never do a sales query close to today’s date based on sale date. This is because almost all the sales in the past 2 weeks have not posted yet.

    SALES – - – Sales take 2-6 weeks until they even post. So – when we are looking at statistics each day, we are really looking at what was done in the past 30 days for the most part with most of it being 7-21 days old data. So – the 63% drop is not real . . .

    This market is cooked however. I again have some interesting stats but let’s just say that the Board’s current mantra is completely garbage and that this removal of listing comment has no basis in fact in any way. IF they say it again, I think all the media should call them on it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0

    Happy Saturday to all.
    We all know the market is bad, regardless of any realtorspeak that has made the press in the pas t week. We also mostly know that the worst period in Vancouver real estate was from September 2008 through about March 2009. Those months were the lowest sales since 2000 and some of them (such as Nov/Dec 2008) are almost unlikely to be reached again in the future. However, right now we are again at an inflection point. On a market wide basis, February 2013 is shaping up to be the 2nd worst Feb in recent years. However, as you look at the pockets – it is clear that there are some that are much worse.
    So – Comparing Feb 2013 with Feb 2009, here are some general thoughts based on the current trend.
    1.) Sales are higher in 2013 and should be about 10% over Feb 2009. This is a massive deterioration from last month as Jan 2013 was 75% over Jan 2009. This is the effect of a market that is weakening now compared to a market in 2009 that was strengthening.
    2.) Listings are much higher than 2009. 2009 was low but in 2013, we are 1.5 StdDev above the average from 2002-2011. So – given that the board is saying people won’t list – I think it is a wish more than a fact. (they are trying to re-create the 2009 market by removing listings – which actually happened then as people were in a state of shock – this is not happening now – people have lost a lot of money and they do not want to lose more . . . so they list).
    3.) We are on track for worst sell to list in any February in recent history.
    4.) Some markets are worse. Van West Detached forecasting worst Feb in history with lowest sales and highest listings. Don’t know if anyone has access to Van West Detached listings for past 15 years but did we ever have over 400 listings in a month?
    5.) Richmond Detached – heading for worst Feb ever. . . .
    6.) Even Vancouver West Condos – Volumes looking to be below 2009 with higher listings. (We are not however seeing record listings in Condos – they are high but we would need 20-30% more listing volume here to show panic – - – )
    7.) Van East detached – Not seeing the same panic in listing volume as Van West. Sales are down however. Lower inventory and lower listing rate will keep MOI here a bit lower (i.e. 8 instead of 12)
    8.) Richmond Condos? Panic !!!! Sell now or forever eat Dim Sum and live in the Mandarin Residences!!!! Not sure why you would ever buy a condo there until 30-40% price decreases occur.
    9.) West Van – - Sales volume quite similar to 2009, slow – - but listing volume is way up. I would say it is Panic there in a West Van sort of way. Think about it – West Van has 10,000 detached homes. At the current selling rate, the turnover in the real estate stock would take 30 years. Seems a little long – the average time in a house is likely not that long . . !!! Good luck to them all.
    10.) North Van Detached – Modestly better than 2009.
    11.) Burnaby – Sales rate is similar but listing rate up 42%.

    February is barely a week old. However – it is already certain to be the worst Sale to List ratio ever and have an inventory increase not seen in any other February.
    Happy New Year to All and . . . . MS . . I hope you’re keeping “busy”. . . Busy Listing that is!!!

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