Happy Saturday to all. We all know the market is bad, regardless of any realtorspeak that has made the press in the pas t week. We also mostly know that the worst period in Vancouver real estate was from September 2008 through about March 2009. Those months were the lowest sales since 2000 and some of them (such as Nov/Dec 2008) are almost unlikely to be reached again in the future. However, right now we are again at an inflection point. On a market wide basis, February 2013 is shaping up to be the 2nd worst Feb in recent years. However, as you look at the pockets – it is clear that there are some that are much worse. So – Comparing Feb 2013 with Feb 2009, here are some general thoughts based on the current trend. 1.) Sales are… Read more »

#41 McLovin. AS many who have come before you and made the same mistake – – you can not do such a query as you have made. You have checked for sales in Jan 1 – Feb 6 in FVREB in this year and last. However- – you can never do a sales query close to today’s date based on sale date. This is because almost all the sales in the past 2 weeks have not posted yet. SALES – – – Sales take 2-6 weeks until they even post. So – when we are looking at statistics each day, we are really looking at what was done in the past 30 days for the most part with most of it being 7-21 days old data. So – the 63% drop is not real . . . This market is… Read more »

Thank you for your questions about the graph.

– It is based on the Case-Shiller index for San Diego
– It is for comparison purposes. I have no idea if it will be predictive.
– San Diego and Vancouver are two different cities. With many differences. And some similarities. San Diego is…
> “running out of land” (ocean to the west, international border to the south, mountains to the east and military reserve to the north)
> it has great weather
> you can ski, sail, golf and surf in the same day
> it has many immigrants continuously moving there (although perhaps of a different socio-economic status than those in Vancouver)

Again stolen from Garth’s site:

Here are a few examples of White Rock active listings that have had large price reductions and still remain unsold …

MLS F1223103
Original List Price $3,488,000
Current List Price $2,950,000
Price Reduction to date: $538,000

MLS F1226197
Original List Price $3,288,000
Current List Price $2,499,000
Price Reduction to date: $789,000

MLS F1227373
Original List Price $3,598,000
Current List Price $2,900,000
Price Reduction to date: $698,000

MLS F1302805
Original List Price $2,828,000
Current List Price $2,228,000
Price Reduction to date: $600,000

MLS F1300389
Original List Price $3,188,000
Current List Price $2,388,000
Price Reduction to date: $800,000

MLS F1226740
Original List Price $3,288,000
Current List Price $2,748,888
Price Reduction to date: $539,000

There are too many to list but I think you get the idea …

Vmd, there have been predictions of higher or flat sales this year by various Realtor firms and re boards. With sales slower this year even than last there is going to have to be some heavy volume increases or…

“Mike Stewart claimed on Garth’s blog that there has been an “increased activity” in downtown Vancouver over the last few weeks.”

That’s right, MOAR listings!

Mike is such a worthless pumper.

@ Jesse
in 2011 & 2012 Jan/Feb sales did peak at +20% to +60% (vs 1 week pre-CNY) in the 2nd week post-CNY.

bulls better light up those incense and pray for one heck of CNY buying spree this year. Realtor-written pump pieces are finally showing up in media re: arrival of CNY HAM, but people are now quick to call these out as nothing but hot air.

In fact, several people point out that even if these “RE Buying Tours”
do arrive, very few do result in actual sales. Many people use the realtors as simple free tour guide/chauffeur service to tour around town.

If a ‘decent’ uptick of sales in latter half of month does not materialize, it’ll put Feb 2013’s MOI at ~8. For comparison, Feb 2012 MOI was 5.5, Feb 2011 MOI was 3.9.

Gettin’ that 2008 feeling – looking at that graph, seeing these numbers. Never thought it possible to have data even approach that but here we are. Waaay too early for a victory dance IMVHO but I am cautiously optimistic that we are at the cusp. A fun yet disturbing thought exercise to play would be to imagine what policy shift could fuck this up… We had various iterations of QE and low interest rates and that space for adjustment is now gone. It really is hard not to believe that, this time, it’s real. To quote Rummy, “There are known unknowns and unknown unknowns.” I’m wary of those unknown unknowns….. Timing it is for rubes and to avoid Rummy and stress around when to pull the trigger, the tried and true “buy when it’s cheaper than renting” dictum is a… Read more »

Jikes is right, CNY is in four days, VMD has indicated sales will bounce mildly the last week of the month.

If things don’t improve my 99 daily sales prediction is going to look mighty silly!

Canadian I didn’t verify them. I just copied the post from Garth’s site.

Total days 19 Days elapsed so far 4 Weekends / holidays 2 Days missing 0 Days remaining 15 7 Day Moving Average: Sales 78 7 Day Moving Average: Listings 269 SALES Sales so far 334 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1176 Projected month end total 1510 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 1180 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 4032 Projected month end total 5212 Sell-list so far 28.3% Projected month-end sell-list 29.0% MONTHS OF INVENTORY Inventory as of Feb 6th, 2013 14403 MoI at this sales pace 9.54 Criminy. If the sales don’t pick up soon, February 2013 is at risk of falling under February 2009 numbers. Have a shot at 16K by the end of February. year sell list sell/list 2002 3008 4035 74.5% 2003 2760 3621 76.2% 2004 3066 3944 77.7% 2005 3068… Read more »