Vancouver house prices ‘flat’ like San Diego

b5baxter updated his crash curve graph over at Vancouver Peak.  This is what he posted in the comments section on this site:

Latest REBGV HPI imposed on my price drop model:
http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Crash-Curve-Graph?pid=389#pid389

The HPIs continue to show remarkable correlation to the model.

I know some people feel that the bubble is “popping” very slowly here. But so far at least it seems to be following the same trend we saw in US cities that saw a 40% drop in prices.

If it continues to follow that trend we won’t have to wait 7 years to see bottom – just a little over two years.

…That’s right. The current rate of price declines in Vancouver that some have described as ‘flat’ is actually falling at the same rate that US bubble cities fell at their peak.

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yvr2zrh

Happy Saturday to all. We all know the market is bad, regardless of any realtorspeak that has made the press in the pas t week. We also mostly know that the worst period in Vancouver real estate was from September 2008 through about March 2009. Those months were the lowest sales since 2000 and some of them (such as Nov/Dec 2008) are almost unlikely to be reached again in the future. However, right now we are again at an inflection point. On a market wide basis, February 2013 is shaping up to be the 2nd worst Feb in recent years. However, as you look at the pockets – it is clear that there are some that are much worse. So – Comparing Feb 2013 with Feb 2009, here are some general thoughts based on the current trend. 1.) Sales are… Read more »

yvr2zrh

#41 McLovin. AS many who have come before you and made the same mistake – – you can not do such a query as you have made. You have checked for sales in Jan 1 – Feb 6 in FVREB in this year and last. However- – you can never do a sales query close to today’s date based on sale date. This is because almost all the sales in the past 2 weeks have not posted yet. SALES – – – Sales take 2-6 weeks until they even post. So – when we are looking at statistics each day, we are really looking at what was done in the past 30 days for the most part with most of it being 7-21 days old data. So – the 63% drop is not real . . . This market is… Read more »

oneangryslav2

@53 Bo Xilai (oh, thank you for gracing us with your presence!) For those interested, you can read FT articles (and I think this still works for WSJ content as well) by searching with the full title name in Google. Some interesting comments at the end of that FT piece. Two are most interesting. Dickens (A Tale of Two Cities) would be proud: Canada1 | February 6 11:04pm | Permalink Vancouver is unique in the world. the most amazing landscape, skiing and sailing 12 months of the year, a restricted pacific ocean view, looking west for the sunsets over the ocean and east for the sunrise over the glorious coastal mountains. This location is unmatched any where in the world and the pricing of the property has not even begun to reflect the stability of the country, it’s political system,… Read more »

Groundhog

And to their credit, they didn’t say anywhere that sales are up. In fact, the headline read:

“Home sales slow to near historic levels in Fraser Valley as
buyers watch and wait from the sidelines”

Groundhog

#49 and Canadian

Yes, those stats from Garths on FVREB sales being down 60+%
are just plain wrong. The stats were pretty horrible, but not that bad

Total Sales Jan 2013/Jan 2012: -22.8%
Detached: -19%
Townhouse: -28.5%
Apartment: -24%

Thats for Jan, in regards to Jan 1 – Feb 6, the Jan sales are higher then those posted on Garths site for Jan – Feb 6 so no matter how bad Feb’s been they’re still wrong.

http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201301.pdf

Groundhog

All of those except F1226197 are mostly a few 100K over assessment still. F1226197 is $68K under assessment.

There is almost literally no sales happening in White Rock/South Surrey, I have a feeling all of those have quite a ways more to go.

Groundhog

White Rock’s under a deluge of listings and new supply coming on board for condos too. Take a look at the FVREB release, condo prices down 16.3% over 5 years.

Also, Jan 2013 MOI for condos @ 18.43, Jan 2012 was only 1308

But as Bull! Bull! Bull! would respond, its White Rock stupid, not Vancouver. Vancouver’s different.

b5baxter

Thank you for your questions about the graph.

– It is based on the Case-Shiller index for San Diego
– It is for comparison purposes. I have no idea if it will be predictive.
– San Diego and Vancouver are two different cities. With many differences. And some similarities. San Diego is…
> “running out of land” (ocean to the west, international border to the south, mountains to the east and military reserve to the north)
> it has great weather
> you can ski, sail, golf and surf in the same day
> it has many immigrants continuously moving there (although perhaps of a different socio-economic status than those in Vancouver)

gokou3

Re: #59

Where’s the yellow heli full of HAM when you need it?

mclovin

Again stolen from Garth’s site:

Here are a few examples of White Rock active listings that have had large price reductions and still remain unsold …

MLS F1223103
Original List Price $3,488,000
Current List Price $2,950,000
Price Reduction to date: $538,000

MLS F1226197
Original List Price $3,288,000
Current List Price $2,499,000
Price Reduction to date: $789,000

MLS F1227373
Original List Price $3,598,000
Current List Price $2,900,000
Price Reduction to date: $698,000

MLS F1302805
Original List Price $2,828,000
Current List Price $2,228,000
Price Reduction to date: $600,000

MLS F1300389
Original List Price $3,188,000
Current List Price $2,388,000
Price Reduction to date: $800,000

MLS F1226740
Original List Price $3,288,000
Current List Price $2,748,888
Price Reduction to date: $539,000

There are too many to list but I think you get the idea …

canadian

Wow, emotions seem to run real high here. so much so that we believe anything bearish, no matter whether we make any sense or not. I thought we were a bunch of people with reasons and rationale intact. How are we any different from bulls we have always blamed to be otherwise. Can someone explain me what was wrong with my comment below that it got voted down to foreclosure?

“Mclovin, that doesnt make sense, as much as I wud want it to be true. Jan nos came 23% lower and no way in hell, feb nos can be that bad to cause that kinda drop. Looking at chipman’site, the no for feb r bad but nowhere close to that bad.”

jesse

Vmd, there have been predictions of higher or flat sales this year by various Realtor firms and re boards. With sales slower this year even than last there is going to have to be some heavy volume increases or…

Best place on meth

“Mike Stewart claimed on Garth’s blog that there has been an “increased activity” in downtown Vancouver over the last few weeks.”

That’s right, MOAR listings!

Mike is such a worthless pumper.

Anonymous

…..I actually had a dinner concersation wirh a Colliers commercial sales rep….

Woha there cowboy! Did he pull out his brass balls and give you the ‘ABC’ speech? The only thing more full of shit than a common Realturd is a Commercial Realturd.

VMD

@ Jesse
in 2011 & 2012 Jan/Feb sales did peak at +20% to +60% (vs 1 week pre-CNY) in the 2nd week post-CNY.

bulls better light up those incense and pray for one heck of CNY buying spree this year. Realtor-written pump pieces are finally showing up in media re: arrival of CNY HAM, but people are now quick to call these out as nothing but hot air.

In fact, several people point out that even if these “RE Buying Tours”
do arrive, very few do result in actual sales. Many people use the realtors as simple free tour guide/chauffeur service to tour around town.

If a ‘decent’ uptick of sales in latter half of month does not materialize, it’ll put Feb 2013’s MOI at ~8. For comparison, Feb 2012 MOI was 5.5, Feb 2011 MOI was 3.9.

Bo Xilai

Financial Times of London is catching on to Mark Carney’s legacy of near ZIRP, overpriced Vancouver real estate and sky-high debts. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/47ee21dc-7045-11e2-ab31-00144feab49a.html#axzz2K9IVgpE9 Unfortunately you have register with FT to get access to the story, but I’ll post some of the essentials: Canada housing cloud cast over Carney “Desperate times demand desperate measures. When Jordan and Russ Macnab, estate agent brothers in Vancouver, Canada, had a glamorous single-bedroom apartment, priced at over C$600,000, that was stubbornly refusing to sell, they decided on a marketing innovation: the “crib crawl”. They rented a limo bus, stocked it with drinks and snacks, and took a party of possible buyers on an evening tour to see the apartment in question and about half a dozen others, in a mobile viewing party. The experiment was not a complete failure: the Macnabs attracted a lot of interest,… Read more »

Democrass

“Canadian should be capitalized. Show some respect to Canada.”

I think he was making a joke that Canadians are under-capitalized.:)

Bob123

Mike Stewart claimed on Garth’s blog that there has been an “increased activity” in downtown Vancouver over the last few weeks. I guess that means practically all of today 67 sales must have been in the downtown core. Surprisingly, Mike did not have any data to support his declaration. Good luck to that guy’s clients.

Spec

Gettin’ that 2008 feeling – looking at that graph, seeing these numbers. Never thought it possible to have data even approach that but here we are. Waaay too early for a victory dance IMVHO but I am cautiously optimistic that we are at the cusp. A fun yet disturbing thought exercise to play would be to imagine what policy shift could fuck this up… We had various iterations of QE and low interest rates and that space for adjustment is now gone. It really is hard not to believe that, this time, it’s real. To quote Rummy, “There are known unknowns and unknown unknowns.” I’m wary of those unknown unknowns….. Timing it is for rubes and to avoid Rummy and stress around when to pull the trigger, the tried and true “buy when it’s cheaper than renting” dictum is a… Read more »

jesse

Jikes is right, CNY is in four days, VMD has indicated sales will bounce mildly the last week of the month.

If things don’t improve my 99 daily sales prediction is going to look mighty silly!

Anonymous

Canadian should be capitalized. Show some respect to Canada.

Bear! Bear! Bear!

Equity in the rear view mirror may appear larger than it is….

Democrass

Here are some sales from January 29, 2013, as posted at Real Estate Talks:

214-2250 Wesbrook Mall
Leasehold strata
List 749
Reduced 698k,668k
Sold 618k
Assessed 667k

1221 W 41 ave
Big 8126 sq ft lot
List 1,688k
Sold 1,635k
Assessed 1,724k

56 W king Ed ave
Nice 4600 sq ft home on 7500 sq ft lot
List 1,980k
Sold 1,930k
Assessed 2,243k

2837 w 43 ave
List 2,298k
Sold 1,975k
Assessed 2,088k

2005-1067 w Cordova st
1 bdr 900 sq ft at Shaw towers
List 749k
Reduced 738k
Sold 700k
Assessed 755k

1101-2020 Highbury st
List 1,575k
Sold 1,292k
Assessed 1,394k

mclovin

Canadian I didn’t verify them. I just copied the post from Garth’s site.

VHB

Total days 19 Days elapsed so far 4 Weekends / holidays 2 Days missing 0 Days remaining 15 7 Day Moving Average: Sales 78 7 Day Moving Average: Listings 269 SALES Sales so far 334 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1176 Projected month end total 1510 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 1180 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 4032 Projected month end total 5212 Sell-list so far 28.3% Projected month-end sell-list 29.0% MONTHS OF INVENTORY Inventory as of Feb 6th, 2013 14403 MoI at this sales pace 9.54 Criminy. If the sales don’t pick up soon, February 2013 is at risk of falling under February 2009 numbers. Have a shot at 16K by the end of February. year sell list sell/list 2002 3008 4035 74.5% 2003 2760 3621 76.2% 2004 3066 3944 77.7% 2005 3068… Read more »