Feb 2013: VMD Battle Map Update

Over at VancouverPeak VMD has updated his SFH battlemap and it’s starting to go monochrome..

This is an entertaining way to track market changes across Vancouver and you can see the color change across the map in relation to earlier posts.

He’s also helpfully marked areas that have switched from positive to negative over the last month.

Looks like the only YOY gains left are in the southeast, losses are showing up everywhere else now.

In other news B5baxter has updated the inventory graph. We’re now showing the highest inventory on the chart for this time of year. Inventory is still growing, but at a slightly slower pace.

 

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was: 55
At this rate we would reach 16,000 in 5 days (Mar-12-13)
At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 78 days (May-23-13)
and 25,000 by August 22, 2013
Last year during this same 30 day period the averages was: 57
Last week the average was 56
Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

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Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley
Great map VMD. Why/how are those outer communities holding out? I thought the norm was for outlying communities to feel the pain first and then drops would slowly move inwards to the core. Did those areas simply not experience the same idiotic run-up? @Yukon lifestyle Wouldn’t money be better spent building a decent year-round highway into the Yukon first? Or a decent highway to anywhere north of Kamloops? The alaskan highway was finished in 1942 and runs right across the yukon. It’s been a big, beautiful, fully paved highway for many years. And there are excellent highways going north from Kamploops (#97 to the north which is another all-weather route into the yukon, #5 NE to jasper). Quit blogging and go for a drive!! As for the yukon grant, $350k buys surprisingly little in whitehorse. City council has been blocking… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

The map is interesting as I am in the Fleetwood battle zone. Within three streets of me there are 10 SFH for sales from $640k to $850k. The $850k has been on the market for about four months and I haven’t seen much activity. Three houses on these streets sold for around $649k last year pretty quickly, although one house sat for sale at this price point all summer and was eventually taken off the market. I’m watching these properties closely for any price drops.
Interestingly I have three townhome developments bordering these streets, one of which opened last week. The larger one launched last October and sales have been really slow. Across all 3 there are about 250-275 houses in development.

Brian Ripley
Guest

Vancouver real estate pricing seems to be frozen in the headlights hampered by slack Y/Y sales http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver_chart.html

It looks similar to the stock markets… prices wafting about on thin volume.

Opposite story in Calgary http://www.chpc.biz/calgary_chart.html
and Toronto http://www.chpc.biz/toronto_chart.html

…prices are busting out.

Ok… Calgary has money flow (AB earnings 20% above the National Trend, 25% above BC) http://www.chpc.biz/earnings.html
…and I guess Toronto has population wealth despite an Ontario 7.7% unemployment rate.
… and maybe the bullish real estate fever out of the U.S. is infectious and driving the spirits up here.

But that VMD Battle Map looks like a telltale for the rest of Canada. A steady shift of sentiment. I’m seeing a similar negative bias from my little poll, results here: http://www.chpc.biz/poll.html

Cheers, BR

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

Interesting that North Van is down YOY when MOI is so low there. Could it just be changes in sales mix?

Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...

@VDTF

I’m pretty sure that VMD uses the HPI produced by REBGV. This would indicate that sales mix is not the issue…assuming that their numbers are “correct”.

space889
Member
space889

uh oh, we aren’t even mentioned in this article about where the rich wants to go?! How can Yahoo Canada publish such drivel without even doing basic fact checking?! If Vancouver is not being mentioned as the place or at least among top 5 places for rich folks then the article must be wrong!

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/200-000-buys-worlds-most-165944265.html

Ok sarcasm off….so seriously…how would the bulls counter this?! Vancouver probably isn’t even on the radar for the rich?!

HAM
Guest
HAM

I’m starting to see a similar pattern to last year for Van west. Prices have stabilized slightly compared to 2-3 months ago. This happened last year through the spring season too. I don’t think we will see prices rise, and I don’t see a crash yet.
Van east looks like there is no crash happening. Prices for all properties have been fairly stable for all property types. I see weakness in a particular development, 2300 Kingsway. With 350 units here, there are still 76 available direct from Wall. 10 more on MLS and some on CL.

Richmond is another story. I could see a sharp correction here this spring & I don’t see stabilization for all property types in all areas anytime soon.

space889
Member
space889

CoV and UBC pushing for a Broadway Subway line, price tag – $2.8B over the alternative of LRT line of ~ $1.1B. I guess when it’s not your money, might as well go for the most expensive option.

The article in Globe & Mail puts the cost of subway line at $2.8M, oh I surely hope it will be that cheap. Chances are the actual cost will be way over $3B, and chaos of cut and cover on Broadway. What’s wrong with the original plan of 4th/7th Ave to Alma and then go to 10th Ave using LRT/Skytrain?? Why does it have to be subway, subway, subway??

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/broadway-transit-key-to-tech-economy-robertson-says/article9195939/

data junkie
Guest
data junkie
@space889 Complaining about the Broadway corridor issue without knowing what the hell you’re talking about is exactly why the threads here drive me nuts sometimes. Let’s make some talk-radio-grade, ill informed complaint about Them Damned Gubmint People, never mind the fact you have no idea what the hell the issue is, right? FYI, I was consulted as a ‘stakeholder’ in the planning stages of the Broadway corridor option analysis, so let me fill you in. The “LRT option” you so favourably cite involved surface-grade street cars running down Broadway street, at a capacity that was barely higher than more 99 buses, and not exactly scaleable in terms of future growth. In return for that shitty performance (and at a $1.6, not $1.1 billion cost), you would lose the entire right lane of Broadway in BOTH directions, making the Hornby bike… Read more »
Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

space889, read the original report instead of the summarized news articles. Vancouver was ranked 16th overall (see page 22).

foreclosure
Guest
foreclosure

5 sales today in BC supreme court it seems that is the norm, so if we averaged 100 sales a day, 5% are foreclosed. Yikes

VHB
Member
VHB

We’re not going to say a gap down when MoI is in the 7-8 range. That’s a slight drip drip drip down range, not gap down.

However, MoI normally bottoms out in March. It doesn’t get any better than this *for the rest of the year*. If the 2nd derivative of prices is showing some slowing of the drop in March–then that is a pretty bearish sign for the rest of the year.

MoI goes nowhere but up from here for April through December.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

“5 sales today in BC supreme court it seems that is the norm”

Would be interested to know your source. Were there roughly 5 every day this week? What about a year ago?

Don Lapre
Member
Don Lapre

Here’s another real think piece about the prowess of female RE investors and guess what?? The author is a female REALTOR®!

http://ceo.ca/why-women-are-great-real-estate-investors/

m. antoinette
Guest
m. antoinette

RE: Broadway corridor

Let them ride bikes.

Ford Prefect
Guest
Ford Prefect

#12 Foreclosure: an interesting take on foreclosure, using daily Vancouver court list versus daily Vancouver sales. If there were 5 foreclosures resulting in 5 sales on a daily basis, obviously that would comprise around 5% of sales. Unfortunately it would not necessarily reveal much about the overall number of foreclosed properties unless you assume that foreclosed properties sell at the same rate as not foreclosed properties. I tend to doubt that such an assumption would be valid.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

@foreclosure (#12), What is the maximum foreclosure adjudication capacity of the Vancouver region foreclosure courts? If it is only 5 per day, then the docket schedule backlog would be very interesting to track. eg: adjudication months of inventory.

VMD
Member

@18
news today out of U.S. re: foreclosures –
Foreclosure timelines now measured in years

“Broken down by state, judicial states New York and New Jersey had the longest timelines: 607 months (more than 50 years) and 483 months (more than 40 years), respectively.”

painted turtle
Guest
painted turtle

Just got a phone call from a friend, long term Vancouver resident, and definitely not media savvy.
He is looking for a place to rent because his landlord of many years wants to sell (= boomer cashing out). My friend wants to wait for at least a year before buying, “because of the current circumstances.”
Telling…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

The rape of Canadian family’s budgets by an asset inflation happy establishment continues.
As we bow to the almighty mortgage-spawning beast.
It’s a computer-game-from-hell.
Except that this time it’s real.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

Refreshing story from a homeowner actually living in their home and adding up the associated ongoing costs.

http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2013/03/06/i_reduced_my_property_taxes_by_appealing_the_asessment.html

“I was convinced my neighbourhood was overvalued, so I …”

Ya think? LOL!

bon jovi
Guest
bon jovi

Could we have economic system without inflation or deflation?

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

“Could we have economic system without inflation or deflation?”

Remove the central banks and get rid of fiat currency and prices should naturally slowly deflate to the benefit of the majority as technology and productivity improve.

Anonymous1
Guest
Anonymous1

System without money printing?

Then the crooks wouldn’t run for government offices and crown corps. Big multinationals couldn’t extort money from the masses.

It could exist but it would be an honest system.

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