Feb 2013: VMD Battle Map Update

Over at VancouverPeak VMD has updated his SFH battlemap and it’s starting to go monochrome..

This is an entertaining way to track market changes across Vancouver and you can see the color change across the map in relation to earlier posts.

He’s also helpfully marked areas that have switched from positive to negative over the last month.

Looks like the only YOY gains left are in the southeast, losses are showing up everywhere else now.

In other news B5baxter has updated the inventory graph. We’re now showing the highest inventory on the chart for this time of year. Inventory is still growing, but at a slightly slower pace.

 

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was: 55
At this rate we would reach 16,000 in 5 days (Mar-12-13)
At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 78 days (May-23-13)
and 25,000 by August 22, 2013
Last year during this same 30 day period the averages was: 57
Last week the average was 56
Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

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Short'em High
Short'em High
7 years ago

@Devore, I agree. If the suite is rented, then there is no recourse. But if it sits empty for weeks after the landlord did not accept reasonable alternate proof of income, a case for discrimination can be made in various ways. Much is being made of the fact that SIN is mentioned directly in the BCRTO guidance, so I’ll give one more example that makes it clear that the intent is not being understood. Consider a foreign student with ample alternative proof of sufficient means but no SIN. What do you think BCRTO would say about a landlord that insists on a SIN and Canadian credit check, when none is legitimately available? It’s illegal discrimination against a particular group of tenants, that’s what it is. Remember people, record your conversations with landlords. You never know what they’ll say that you… Read more »

Devore
Devore
7 years ago

“So, notwithstanding Anon#32′s overbroad interpretation of BCRTO’s very specific wording, there are ways to make a discrimination case stick with BCRTO if you want to pursue it.”

No there aren’t. The landlord is free to give any justification desired (as long as it is not legally discriminatory), including none at all, for not renting his space to somebody else.

Anonymous1
Anonymous1
7 years ago

I think everyone agrees that house prices in general have reached a peak. Even at low rates, higher prices just are not sustainable unless momentum/Ponzi thinking rears its head again. Having said that, a catalyst is needed to scare people. Then it’ll be downward momentum. The thing that is different here is that the banks are our CMHC and our Finance Minister. Garths Blog does another head fake. Now no interstate rates hike..lol 1) first it was ‘crash’ 2) then it was ‘correction followed by melt’ 3) then it was interest rates are going to rise last year. 4) then it was he was talking about bond yields and not the BoC rate. 5) then it was that in demand areas will hold their value while others crumble. 6) now he says interest rates won’t rise anytime soon. Then they… Read more »

eagle eyes
eagle eyes
7 years ago

Active Listings in Richmond (Hamsville) BC:
2163

Short'em High
Short'em High
7 years ago

Says: “Here is my archive of PaulB” Thank you!

Now others can do their own work or QC their data. Here is one already:

Looking back at a Feb 2012 summary posted on VCI:

http://vancouvercondo.info/2012/03/friday-free-for-all-195.html/page-4/#comment-145923

For Feb 8, 2012 it quotes 516 listings. I was told by a recent VCI commenter that was the sum of Feb8 + Feb9 listing counts. When I add up your Feb8 + Feb9 == 265 + 229 == 494 != 516.

The rest of the Feb2012 listing counts are in agreement with yours and since you have both days it’s safest to assume the other post was faulty arithmetic.

Thanks again for posting your copy of the data.

VHB
VHB
7 years ago

Here is my archive of PaulB’s daily numbers. I put it in the forum. The data starts right after the Olympics and goes to tonight’s data. Enjoy!

Bailing in BC
Bailing in BC
7 years ago

# 49 oneangryslav2

That’s awesome. Get it out there people!

Eddie
Eddie
7 years ago

Mclovin – remember that our recent economic boom was unsustainable and built on the ZIRP model – the same model that has crashed economies around the world. It’s hilarious that the liberals actually think they created the good times – just listen to their ads. Now the NDP might make the inevitable crash worse here, but it’s coming whether you like it or not and regardless of who wins an election.

As the old saying goes – BC doesn’t vote in a new government, it just throws out the old one!

VHB
VHB
7 years ago

Total days 20
Days elapsed so far 5
Weekends / holidays 2
Days missing 0
Days remaining 15
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 111
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 270
SALES
Sales so far 553
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1659
Projected month end total 2212
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 1352
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 4056
Projected month end total 5408
Sell-list so far 40.9%
Projected month-end sell-list 40.9%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of Mar 7th, 2013 15812
MoI at this sales pace 7.15

Short'em High
Short'em High
7 years ago

#50: “misleading them [on valid recourse]”

Re: ‘discriminatory/excessive financial disclosure’

Not my experience. I explained what happened in my case. I provided tangible proof of creditworthiness and financial means but would not consent to landlord’s copy for his files. In the end, landlord copied only my ID and bank account number of the disbursal account. Privacy of tenant financial information is valid recourse.

VMD
7 years ago

@#49 oneangryslav2
Awesome, thanks for helping me do that, was meaning to find a program to do it!

Also gentlemen, behold:
2445 Mcbain Ave, Vancouver
Assessed: $2.246m
Listing price: $2.380m
Sold this week:$2.350m
(“Wow! 5% above assessed! We must be in seller’s market now! All those bears are in for another year of disappointment again!” – said a realtor on Chinese forum)
But….
Purchase price: $2.525m (Feb 12, 2012)
– After closing costs, that’s ~$300k loss in one year!
– That’s before counting any maintenance/mortgage cost.
– Ouch..

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

mclovin Says: “If I am wrong, please please tell me what the NDP will do that is good for business or the economy?”

You are in fact correct. The BC NDP is an economic disaster waiting to happen. It has been a long time since the NDP have been in power and most people have forgotten the damage they did or how their policies are destructive. Fresh in peoples memories are the Liberals who have worn out their welcome for many. Unfortunately people will cut their nose off to spite their face and vote with emotion rather than logic.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

Short’em High Says: “you have my reply on precisely how to deal with discriminatory/excessive financial disclosure to landlords”

The problem is landlords are allowed to do credit checks and ask for a SIN to do it. They can refuse to rent to you if you do not provide it. It is that simple. Those are the regulations. I didn’t make them up just passing on the information. When people like you provide false information that landlords are being ‘discriminatory’ when they request this information and that a renter can win a case with the RTO based on ‘discriminatory/excessive financial disclosure’ it is just completely not true. You are misleading people.

oneangryslav2
oneangryslav2
7 years ago

I’ve created an animated .gif file of VMD’s fantastic work on the GV RE battle. I’ve created a post in response to VMD’s original post at Vancouverpeak.com, but will post the link to the .gif here as well. Enjoy!

Here’s the link:
http://postimage.org/image/s2vbzk2ed/

mclovin
mclovin
7 years ago

My post from 31: “The coming RE bust will not be the NDP’s fault but they will make it much worse. An NDP Gov’t is bad for business PERIOD. Businesses that are not confident, that face rising taxes and and a pro-union Gov’t do not hire workers and do not grow. This is common sense.” It is utterly alarming that over 1/2 of the readers of this blog would vote this down. What I posted above is a simple undeniable fact that is impossible to argue. I am no fan of the current gov’t. They have become arrogant and lost their way but the NDP? NDP Gov’t’s kill business. Unless you are a union worker or teacher they are bad. No one with any common sense or who has ever run a business would argue this. The first thing Dix… Read more »

Troll Feeder
Troll Feeder
7 years ago

That would be awesome VHB, can you dump it on vancouverpeak.com ?

Short'em High
Short'em High
7 years ago

VHB Says: Need the backdata on daily sell-lists?

Yes, thanks!

You could post a file to

https://anonfiles.com/

and publish the link on the board.

Then even those who have the data can compare entries with yours. Maybe you’ll get some feedback on differences.

VHB
VHB
7 years ago

Hey Shortem: are you still looking for the backdata on daily sell-lists? I can dump it all in the forum, if you’d like. Busy now; could do it later tonight.

VHB
VHB
7 years ago

Democrats: translated from geek to english, I was trying to say that the rate of decrease is slowing. My point was, March is likely to be the strongest the market gets all year and it ain’t all that strong so far.

Short'em High
Short'em High
7 years ago

(#32),

Rather than double posting here, as you did, you have my reply on precisely how to deal with discriminatory/excessive financial disclosure to landlords on the previous thread. Per the original apartment hunters question, if applicant is prepared, it won’t be necessary to leave copies tax of numbers/records all over town when looking for a new apartment. So, notwithstanding Anon#32’s overbroad interpretation of BCRTO’s very specific wording, there are ways to make a discrimination case stick with BCRTO if you want to pursue it.

Groundhog
Groundhog
7 years ago

@N

Quick explanation:
We would have alternating periods of deflation and inflation, more or less equally. Not the constant 2% inflation that central banks target which is only to the benefit of those with first access to money.

Some reading to start if you’re interested

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2010/11/unthinking-economic-parrots-and.html

History of US inflation: http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/InflationChart.png

Democrats
Democrats
7 years ago

“If the 2nd derivative of prices is showing some slowing of the drop in March”

I don’t understand this. What is the second derivative of prices?

bon jovi
bon jovi
7 years ago

how about this:

“Money is loaned to the producers (industry) by the National Credit Office, for the production of new goods, which brings a flow of new goods with prices . Since wages are not sufficient to buy all of available goods and services for sale, the National Credit Office fills the gap between the flow of purchasing power and the flow of total prices by issuing a monthly dividend to every citizen. Consumers and goods meet at the market place (retailer), and when a product is purchased (consumed), the money that had originally been loaned for producing this product returns to its source, the National Credit Office. At any moment, there is always equality between the total purchasing power available in the hands of the population, and the total prices of consumable goods for sale on the market.”

mac
mac
7 years ago

McLovin’s comment has scored 15 for the Libs/19 for the NDP. Looks like we’ll have a change of gov’t. But can someone please teach Dix how to stand in front of cameras. Hint: be still.

N
N
7 years ago

“Not the same type of deflation I referred to.”

What kind of deflation would we get without central banks?