FFFA! Long weekend edition.

Hey! It’s Friday,  and for a lot of you its a long weekend.   This is our regularly scheduled end of he week news round up and open topic discussion thread.

-links to be added here later

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

Topic MARCH 2013: Peak sales month or not?

Here is the peak sales month for the past 3 years:

sales month
3450 2010-04-30
4080 2011-03-31
2900 2012-03-31
2395 2013-03-31 ?

If March 2013 is the peak sales month then, using the Nominal Days method of seasonal adjustment, one can project MOI into the future. Linked below is a graphic of 2013 MOI in both a 2012 and 2008 scenario based on March being the peak sales month of 2013.

http://postimg.org/image/51heqr26x/

Will the first week of April approach 600 sales to get near March’s 2395 by end of month? We will find out in a just a few more days! Hopefully PaulB will post a sales number today to get the ball rolling.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

Topic MARCH 2013: Peak sales month or not?

Here is the peak sales month for the past 3 years:

sales month
3450 2010-04-30
4080 2011-03-31
2900 2012-03-31
2395 2013-03-31 ?

If March 2013 is the peak sales month then, using the Nominal Days method of seasonal adjustment, one can project MOI into the future. Linked below is a graphic of 2013 MOI in both a 2012 and 2008 scenario based on March being the peak sales month of 2013.

http://postimg.org/image/51heqr26x/

Will the first week of April approach 600 sales to get near March’s 2395 by end of month? We will find out in a just a few more days!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Garth says Vancouver MAY experience a 30% decline over many years MAXIMUM!

It’s different here! Why?

Immigration and money laundering.. end it and prices will revert.

The Banks (and Garth) don’t want immigration to end …wonder why? $$$

6000 Multi-millionaire families came to vancouver in 2011 via Quebecs Immigration program.

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Kenney+vows+keep+close+Quebec+program/8156626/story.html

Landbaron
Guest
Landbaron

Look at yourself in the mirror…ask yourself whether you are worth a million dollars on paper because of your astute Vancouver RE investing skills.

The truth is that you missed the boat. Trying to rationalize why others are delusional is besides the point. IT HAS HAPPENED, AND NOTHING CAN CHANGE IT.

What bugs the F&%% out of me is that total ignorance displayed on blogs like these. Pump up RE….it will only fall harder the higher it goes. No Street smarts here…..at all!

Landbaron
Guest
Landbaron

@77

I tried to make sense of your post and then just gave up.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Bears are jut so stupid. capital S!

Let the market run amok…to the stratosphere…then let it crash!!!

What you’re promoting is a soft landing, where values plateau or go down 15% and plateau.

Its April tomoro and do you really think a price correction has occurred?

Like I said, just Stupid!

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

New on the market: assessed $7,429,000 asking: $9,800,000
Spring has finally arrived for luxury home sellers!

5665 CHANCELLOR BV, University, Vancouver West, $9,800,000.00

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V996642&REBoards=All&From=MLS

jesse
Member

You could use YE numbers to infer December if you had January; you could probably get close by taking historic ratio between Dec/Jan to infer monthly totals but that will be a slightly weaker datum than the actual values.

You can also try emailing REBGV directly to get historical values. As I said I only use public data.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

@jesse#70. Thanks for the tip! Except for Jan99, I found numbers in the monthly reports to validate your corrections: detached apartments attached total 1999-01-31 583 365 172 1120 1999-02-28 919 501 259 1679 2000-01-31 534 288 124 946 2000-02-29 852 507 270 1629 Similar to your corrections: Jan99 1068 Feb99 1667 Jan00 946 Feb00 1634 One thing I notice is the previous year’s YoY number is often slightly higher a year later – late counts I guess. Regarding Jan99, that report has no number except detached, so I added the numbers from the YoY numbers stated in the Jan00 report. Maybe that’s why my Jan99 number is higher? Following your suggestion regarding getting 1998 sales from the YoY 1999 reports this is all I could extract: month detached apartments attached total 1998-01-31 ‘? 1998-02-28 835 475 216 1526 1998-03-31 919… Read more »

scottsdale renter
Guest
scottsdale renter

Just read Garth’s blog. Yes I did. Its good entertainment. No rotten tomatoes please 🙂 He mentioned sam wyatt’s blog post. Here’s a snippet from wyatt’s blog:

“The trend since the run-up after the credit crisis has been declining sales volumes in which both the high and low seasons (Spring and Winter) have generally seen progessively fewer sales each year. ”

http://www.samwyatt.com/Blog.php/vancouver-real-estate-report-march

Second note, local realtor has run out of things to say about the market so she attacked MSM and other media. She said we live in the BPOE 🙂

b5baxter
Member

“…Nope. I put 70k down. So my return is a lot…A LOT more than 10%. Leverage. Look it up…”

I have to break this to you but,
you have spent a lot more than 70k on this house.

The actual amount spent depends on your intrest rate and ammortization but assuming 25 years at 5% the total spent on interest alone is $215,000. That means that the house will cost you about $465,000. Which brings your rate of return down to about 4.5%.

But what about rental income? Yes, but with Vancouver current price to rent ratios that rate of return only adds about another 3%. So overall your return comes in well under 10%.

Buying in 2001 was a good idea – especially if you sell now. Buying now – not so much.

franco
Guest
franco

” It’s assessed at over a million now ” You’ve done well, but it won’t do you any good unless you sell. Don’t know how to put this without sounding like gloating, but the fact that I’m at lest twice as old as most of you might help to put things perspective. I started buying (slow and modest) and occasionally selling real estate since the 60s and through the 90s. It was a lot easier then, especially with inflation outpacing int rates. I started selling seriously since 2005. That may have been too early, but I guess I lucked out by investing the proceeds in stocks(mostly commodities) that gained almost as much as the RE would have. Anyway, I’m happy to be totally out of real estate now, and the point is that the only way to profit from overpriced… Read more »

jesse
Member

Short-em High, the data I get are from monthly statistical releases, the modified numbers are:
Jan99 1068
Feb99 1667
Jan00 946
Feb00 1634

These are based on reports from http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports
You might be able to infer 1998 if you look at the 1999 numbers as sometimes they cite a change year-on-year. Data have not been validated but they’re likely close.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“Really? I guess 10% bellow assessment isn’t “close to assessment” because houses at that price sell within weeks in east van.”

Well 10% below assessed is 100K paper loss in less than a year. I thought you came here to brag? Next fall it may be 250K off last years assessed. Report back in 6 months and we will see how smart you look. It is not looking promising.

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan

We need a jump in listings.

We bears know it. That’s the spark that will lead to the next 15% of declines….

Stack up the cash (savings), wait for it.

b5baxter
Member

“..i bought my house on main and 48th in 2001 for 350k. it’s assessed at over a million now…”

Taking into account the 5% drop from most recent assessments that would be a 8.5% annual rate of return. Only slightly higher than the long term return from the S&P. But, the last 10-15 years have been a unique time for real estate with low interest rates and mortgage inentive programs. It unlikely that someone buying today would get the same rate of return.

2001 was a good time to buy. I bought a house back then as well. Today I rent.

Yalie
Guest
Yalie

Nope. I put 70k down. So my return is a lot…A LOT more than 10%. Leverage. Look it up.

My apologies, math is not my strong point. Turning 70k into a million in 12 years is in fact 25% per year compounded… even more impressive!

I looked up “leverage” and I think I understand now, thanks.

I will now recommend a different strategy to my 25 year old friends. They should instead buy a 20 million dollar Shaughnessy house, using 1 million dollars of their parent’s money (HELOC of course) as their down payment. At 25% pa return, their million dollars will be worth 264 million by the time they retire in 25 years.

I imagine my 25 year old and her boyfriend will be even more enthusiastic about buying when I tell them this exciting news… thanks again.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

>So your 350k purchase became a million in just 12 years. That’s an annual compound rate of return of about 10%

Nope. I put 70k down. So my return is a lot…A LOT more than 10%. Leverage. Look it up.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

> BTW it is too late to get anything close to assessed value today. You already missed that boat.

Really? I guess 10% bellow assessment isn’t “close to assessment” because houses at that price sell within weeks in east van.

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

@Yalie,

I think you have solved all the world’s problems. Everyone just needs to buy a house, and all worldwide poverty and hunger will end.

N
Guest
N

#58

No one is arguing that 2001 was a bad time to buy, or that houses were over-valued then (though you probably could have got something thirty blocks closer to civilization for the same price).

Yalie
Guest
Yalie

i bought my house on main and 48th in 2001 for 350k. it’s assessed at over a million now. that’s one hell of a return on my down payment. can you guys explain to me why all of you are so much smarter than i am, cause i don’t see it. of course i’m just a dumb home owner, so what do i know. You know something, you’re right. I think us bears have been pretty short-sighted about the true wisdom of buying in Vancouver, and the impeccable logic of the above post has convinced this bear to rethink his ways. So your 350k purchase became a million in just 12 years. That’s an annual compound rate of return of about 10%… impressive! So here’s what I’m going to do. I’m going to stop proselytizing about a housing crash start… Read more »

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

#58 “that’s one hell of a return on my down payment. can you guys explain to me why all of you are so much smarter than i am, cause i don’t see it. of course i’m just a dumb home owner, so what do i know.” You have gained nothing until you sell. You haven’t sold so you still live in the same dumpy house in East Van that would be considered a lower middle class dwelling by any North American standard. Not sure what you are bragging about – the assessment paper? Come back and brag when you cash out and don’t buy back in. My guess is you are not smart enough for that as you have implied. BTW it is too late to get anything close to assessed value today. You already missed that boat. It will… Read more »

Beuller
Guest
Beuller

i bought my house on main and 48th in 2001 for 350k. it’s assessed at over a million now.

that’s one hell of a return on my down payment. can you guys explain to me why all of you are so much smarter than i am, cause i don’t see it. of course i’m just a dumb home owner, so what do i know.

It’s called dumb luck. Try it now, smart guy.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

i bought my house on main and 48th in 2001 for 350k. it’s assessed at over a million now.

that’s one hell of a return on my down payment. can you guys explain to me why all of you are so much smarter than i am, cause i don’t see it. of course i’m just a dumb home owner, so what do i know.