So far 100% of the comments on the blog are good and high quality. Lets keep it up. Happy Friday

So far 75% of the comments on the blog are good and high quality. Still pretty good. Happy Friday

I will write The Sun headline for that CREA report: BC to Outperform In 2013 Home Sales

http://postimage.org/image/426hpycpv/

West/East monthly sales stats 200701-201302
median = .94
mode = .57
average = 0.95
stdev = 0.25
min = 0.27
max = 1.48
2 sigma range = (0.45 to 1.45)
3 sigma range = (0.20 to 1.70)

Assuming normal distribution, the event that West/East >= 2.0 is unlikely by random chance. Where it occurs and persists, the underlying dynamics of the phenomenon must have fundamentally changed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/03/15/canada-housing-market-crea_n_2878386.html?utm_hp_ref=canada

@short em high. Who makes a graph with time going right to left? Can you please be consistent with pretty much every other graph in the known world?

I don’t get the downvoting on short em high #10. Maybe reverse the direction of the abscissa and give some more explanation and the post will be appreciated more.

Short em high, I’m not sure about the assumption of a normal distribution with the mode so far from the both the median and mean.

Could someone email me when the actual correction in prices starts??

Right now, all we have is low sales and high end price drops skewing the average price down..wake me up when the average house starts falling in price.

Thanks.

There is probably some “pent-up demand” out there. But nowhere near as much as there will be in 5 or 10 years.

The only pent up demand in this housing market is the pent up demand of sellers demanding their properties be sold. That of course leads to further price drops

“wake me up when the average house starts falling in price”

Well, wake up. You slept in. HPI (which tracks the average house) has been falling for around 10 months.

We are seeing pent-up demand… in the US. After the peak 6-7 years earlier.

Many Franks,

I got nothing against Ben Rabudoux. Garth took a shot at him saying he sometimes works for national Bank.

He’s good with stats. But he doesn’t (cant) include stats like offshore money laundering into Vancouver RE, 100,000’s of illegal immigrants in Canada, Almost a million temp workers and students not counted in census population stats, construction industry money laundering.

That’s why I take his analysis lightly.

Pent up demand? You can still rent. With all the condos coming out that are tiny, only investors have been buying for some time now. And investors are already stretched to the max trying to pay off the current mortgages of their investment condos/homes.

I think what Muir meant to say is that there’s a lot of pent up anger, from sellers who can’t sell, realtors who can’t get a commission and the cartel who keeps denying there was ever a bubble.

This pent up anger should eventually explode into full blown rage followed by crying in a fetal position.

Lots of great pieces in the news today. From the CBC:
Falling Vancouver real estate drags down Canadian average

If sales from the Greater Vancouver area aren’t included, the average Canadian home price would have shown an increase of 1.3 per cent during February, compared to a year ago.

The pattern of CREA reports saying “ignore Vancouver, they’re nuts over there” continues apace.

Look what you can get for 1 million dollars in New York: http://www.coldwarmissilesilo.com/index.htm

@anonymous1,

[Ben Rabidoux is] good with stats. But he doesn’t (cant) include stats like [discussed to death and not enough to move the market on its own], [irrelevant and smacks of bigotry], [irrelevant and smacks of bigotry], [irrelevant and probably also bigoted], and [red herring].

Yup, that’s exactly what I like about Ben’s writing. And you are…?

My kingdom for a preview button!

@anonymous1,

[Ben Rabidoux is] good with stats. But he doesn’t (cant) include stats like [discussed to death and not enough to move the market on its own], [irrelevant and smacks of bigotry], [irrelevant and smacks of bigotry], [irrelevant and probably also bigoted], and [red herring].

Yup, that’s exactly what I like about Ben’s writing. And you are…?

she also says that vancouver is down for a year, victoria is down the past 4 years, bc is bucking new home sales price increase. it is “insanely expensive” on the west coast and the high prices are “unsustainable”.

so, are you saying that this was a ‘bullish’ story?

@ bullwhip29 –

Funny you mention Steve Darling, my wife walked through an open house and he was the one leading the open house. He just had a friend realtor list it and he is doing the work he said.

@ HFHC

If that’s true, I wonder whose house it is?