FFFA! Price Drops along the coast.
Well it’s the end of another work week, and you know what that means?
That means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.
Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
-Sales decline helps fuel price drops
-Updated inventory graph
-Average BC price down 8.1% YOY
-Sell my imaginary house!
-What about the sunshine coast?
-Poll: Most trustworthy expert?
-The grim news
–
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
March 15th, 2013 at 12:25 am 1
To the blog – – I have a small request. Would one of you go back and try to plot the number of detached sales for Van-West and Van-East on a month by month basis for the past years (I would say back to Jan 2007 if you can. It may require some manual lookups.
I just want to be able to see what the normal trend is because this month we have a massive divergence. Really quiite odd. Perhaps we are seeing the impacts of “Modest” CNY impacts on Van-West while Van-East collapses – – This month we are going to likely end up with almost 2:1 (I am projecting 150 v. 88 for West/East respectively). Have we ever had 70% more Van-West than Van-East?
Thanks in advance – I’m going to be travelling the next 10 days.
We are trending below 2009 now for sales in March – – This makes it now the worst March in 15 years almost.
Cheers to all and have a great weekend.
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March 15th, 2013 at 3:46 am 2
@yvr2zrh
I happen to track this data, though only continuously since Aug 2010.
All data were manually entered.
Here is the spreadsheet link https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgcmnQtlQnGodHJHRGl4X3NKZklCeXY1Z3dpdHRNYnc&usp=sharing
The missing data in the table can be found in my collection of REBGV month-end reports: http://greaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.ca/2011/10/2011-rebgv-stats-pdf.html
I’ll be quite busy this weekend, so hopefully someone can help fill in the gaps and plot the existing data into overlapping line graphs (organized by year).
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March 15th, 2013 at 6:57 am 3
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March 15th, 2013 at 7:17 am 4
So far 75% of the comments on the blog are good and high quality. Still pretty good. Happy Friday
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March 15th, 2013 at 7:24 am 5
Former Prime Minister Kim Campbell is attempting to back out of her condo purchase at the Hotel Georgia because the developer did not complete the project before the deadline promised. From CBC:
“In her statement of civil claim filed in B.C. Supreme Court Campbell says she paid a $368,000 deposit on a condo in the new residential high-rise at the Hotel Georgia in 2007.
Her lawyer Bryan Baynham says the pre-sale agreement with Georgia Properties Partnership was that that the condo would be finished December 2011.
“The project wasn’t finished on time. They were more than a year late and not surprisingly the people don’t want to complete and they want their deposit back.”
Campbell and the 12 other pre-sale buyers are suing Georgia Properties Partnership, Georgia Trust, Hotel Georgia Management Ltd and a numbered company to get their deposits back with interest.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/03/15/bc-kim-campbell-hotel-georgia.html
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March 15th, 2013 at 7:39 am 6
More like it.
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March 15th, 2013 at 7:49 am 7
CREA cuts forecast as home sales plunge in February
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:35 am 8
I will write The Sun headline for that CREA report: BC to Outperform In 2013 Home Sales
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:36 am 9
Muir is good a picking numbers. Now making fuss about… average prices! (Who cares about those).
When all indicators (average, median, benchmark, HPI and Teranet) are heading South, he now talks about virtual buyers (‘pent up demand’). Has he done any survey about buyers’ psychology? Is he showing any population stats?
I am sure many virtual potential buyers are interested in buying computer simulated mansions. As for the flesh and bones buyers I know, they are so sick of this market that they will not jump in easily. It is not only the fear of a declining asset. It is also a visceral reaction against signing a cheque every month for 25 years to enrich a speculator or a greedy boomer.
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:37 am 10
http://postimage.org/image/426hpycpv/
West/East monthly sales stats 200701-201302
median = .94
mode = .57
average = 0.95
stdev = 0.25
min = 0.27
max = 1.48
2 sigma range = (0.45 to 1.45)
3 sigma range = (0.20 to 1.70)
Assuming normal distribution, the event that West/East >= 2.0 is unlikely by random chance. Where it occurs and persists, the underlying dynamics of the phenomenon must have fundamentally changed.
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:48 am 11
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/03/15/canada-housing-market-crea_n_2878386.html?utm_hp_ref=canada
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:52 am 12
And to top off all the grim news, Mark Carney has fresh egg on his face:
Canadian Household Debt-to-Income Ratio Rises to Record 165%
Evidence that consumer debt burdens are stabilizing? Right, I’m having trouble remembering the details. All I can call to mind is self-serving statements from bank insiders without statistical backing.
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:52 am 13
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:59 am 14
@short em high. Who makes a graph with time going right to left? Can you please be consistent with pretty much every other graph in the known world?
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:12 am 15
I don’t get the downvoting on short em high #10. Maybe reverse the direction of the abscissa and give some more explanation and the post will be appreciated more.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:18 am 16
Short em high, I’m not sure about the assumption of a normal distribution with the mode so far from the both the median and mean.
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:19 am 17
Could someone email me when the actual correction in prices starts??
Right now, all we have is low sales and high end price drops skewing the average price down..wake me up when the average house starts falling in price.
Thanks.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:31 am 18
Jeez, Anonymous1, first you want us to email you, and now you want us to wake you up, and all we have to do on is the 1 at the end of your moniker? You’ve got more faith in us than you’re letting on.
Ben Rabidoux has been talking about this for a while:
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:32 am 19
@painted turtle #9
How does one quantify “pent up demand”? In my non-professional opinion, I don’t think it’s a case of pent up demand but rather that all the demand was pulled forward over the last few years. Much akin to “blowing one’s load”. It’s all over and done. Now it’s time to sit back with a cigarette and think about what was.
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:48 am 20
Hi Everyone,
Happy Friday. Interesting news about the worst sales for March in 15 years…
Investors Group (I know, I know,) came to my office for a lunchtime seminar a few days ago. (Talking TFSAs, how to reduce your taxes, etc,). Anyway, it was open to everyone, and there was over a hundred people there. Without giving away too much about where I work, there are a few administration types, and then mostly people with professional designations or MBAs / PHD’s.
The presenter mentioned Vancouver’s Real Estate Bubble a few times, and said that everyone was talking about ‘how we are in a bubble.’ I scanned the audience each time, looking for shock or surprise, but everyone had a look of acceptance, like yes, of course we are overpriced. I don’t think that most people think things are going to crash, just that there is going to be a slight correction, but it was amazing to me how sentiment has changed, and the fact Vancouver RE is too high was just understood.
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:51 am 21
There is probably some “pent-up demand” out there. But nowhere near as much as there will be in 5 or 10 years.
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:55 am 22
Global TV just ran two RE spots (within an hour of each other) on this morning’s news featuring Joannah Connolly, editor of the highly acclaimed BIV and holder of a BA in Eng Lit. Not surprisingly, the very eager to please “Mr. Mom”, Steve Darling, seemed more the willing to play along (as evidenced by his recent decision to use the same hairdresser as all the other female anchors).
In segment one, she commented on the 0.1% rise in the Cdn new HPI (for Jan) and implied the housing market had “reversed a downtrend”. She also mentioned the Cdn$ and how “it rose five cents” yesterday. How sad. Colorful, animated bar graphs (a la CNBC) were used in the presentation to drive home the point that home prices are still way higher than they were in 2009. The year 2012 was conveniently omitted from graph #1 so as to mislead the public into believing the upward trajectory is still intact. graph #2 was equally laughable with price chg’s in Vanc, Vic, Wpg and Cda average all appearing to be gains with upward pointing bars
(link to video#1 http://tinyurl.com/by4t3qt)
In segment two, she talked about how hot the commercial RE was, that land was in limited supply and that investors were “snapping up anything and everything”.
(link to video#2 http://tinyurl.com/cnwonrq)
Enjoy!
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:01 am 23
@Pdub
But how can you quantify it? To me, it’s a sign of desperation when one needs to pull that out of one’s sleeve. You notice how “pent up supply” is never mentioned.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:02 am 24
The only pent up demand in this housing market is the pent up demand of sellers demanding their properties be sold. That of course leads to further price drops
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:12 am 25
Hot off the press March 14, 2013:
“Dan Scarrow, vice-president of corporate strategy for Macdonald Realty in Vancouver, said the area’s luxury-home market is “insanely hot”, with mainland Chinese the primary buyers.”
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2013-03/14/content_16308167.htm
Meanwhile, March 23, 2011:
“The market for luxury homes is now “insanely hot,” with mainland Chinese buyers — who are also affecting the Richmond market in a big way — the primary purchasers, said Dan Scarrow, Macdonald Realty vice-president of corporate strategy.”
http://www.macrealty.com/blog/detail/luxury-real-estate-booming-in-vancouver-financial-post-article-quotes-dan-s
Apparently this is a #reporterfail.
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:13 am 26
“wake me up when the average house starts falling in price”
Well, wake up. You slept in. HPI (which tracks the average house) has been falling for around 10 months.
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:16 am 27
@VultureBoy Says: “I don’t get the downvoting on short em high #10″
The downvotes are from the same rabble of dunces that voted down my criticism yesterday of the peanut gallery posters who post pretty graphs but can’t be bothered to disclose their data. Ignorant people are very fearful of the scientific method. According to one poster, @VDTF, because I ask meaningful questions of the graph posters I have an “attitude”.
Regarding my post, sorry for not explaining again and connecting the dots from the earlier postings in the thread. My post was in response to @YVR’s request using @VMD’s data. You can see their posts by reading near beginning of this thread.
LOL on the remarks about the right to left time axis! If that made some hoof bound clod’s head explode on this forum (probably a downvoter), my laziness paid off! Keep on clicking people. I think it’s funny!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:22 am 28
We are seeing pent-up demand… in the US. After the peak 6-7 years earlier.
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:25 am 29
Not Much #23
I am not an economist but I read enough of it to assume a good economist might take a multi-year average of sales, adjusted for things like changes in population and demography, to determine what demand should be. If demand is below that for a period it might be because buyers are holding off for some reason. Pent-up demand was a big factor in the surge in car sales in the US last year.
Of course Cameron Muir is grasping at straws after barely a year of below average (for the past few years, not longterm) sales. But you have to give the poor boy credit, he is slowly coming around and admitting the sun does indeed rise in the east and set in the west. The change in psychology in the local market means buyers who might normally buy because of changes in the household – getting married, having children, children leaving, retiring, expiring – are holding off on buying because they are now concerned prices will drop. Thus,a source of pent-up demand.
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:45 am 30
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:47 am 31
Pent up demand? You can still rent. With all the condos coming out that are tiny, only investors have been buying for some time now. And investors are already stretched to the max trying to pay off the current mortgages of their investment condos/homes.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:52 am 32
Are there pent up demand? sure there are. Almost all of us here can be classified as pent up demand. But as long as the demand side thinks the price will continue to fall, they will be pent up for quite a while. Thus the deadly spiral of house price deflation.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:06 am 33
I think what Muir meant to say is that there’s a lot of pent up anger, from sellers who can’t sell, realtors who can’t get a commission and the cartel who keeps denying there was ever a bubble.
This pent up anger should eventually explode into full blown rage followed by crying in a fetal position.
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:09 am 34
Lots of great pieces in the news today. From the CBC:
Falling Vancouver real estate drags down Canadian average
The pattern of CREA reports saying “ignore Vancouver, they’re nuts over there” continues apace.
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:14 am 35
@Many Franks…
So if you exclude Vancouver then how can it be a Canadian average?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:26 am 36
http://www.news1130.com/2013/03/15/former-pm-among-13-taking-local-re-developers-to-court/?cid=dlvr.it
VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – Former Prime Minister Kim Campbell and 12 others are taking the re-developers of a Vancouver landmark to court.
The complaint involves pre-sale condos at the Hotel Georgia.
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:29 am 37
Look what you can get for 1 million dollars in New York: http://www.coldwarmissilesilo.com/index.htm
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:34 am 38
@anonymous1,
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:36 am 39
My kingdom for a preview button!
@anonymous1,
Yup, that’s exactly what I like about Ben’s writing. And you are…?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:45 am 40
she also says that vancouver is down for a year, victoria is down the past 4 years, bc is bucking new home sales price increase. it is “insanely expensive” on the west coast and the high prices are “unsustainable”.
so, are you saying that this was a ‘bullish’ story?
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:58 am 41
A quick snapshot of inventory trends.
Average daily increase in inventory for the last 7 days: 59
For the same period last year: 51
And last week: 49
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 12:22 pm 42
There is no value at all in talking about “pent up demand” or “pent up supply”. To paraphrase Patriotz (correctly I hope, or I am sure I will be hearing from him :)..) “there is ALWAYS a buyer at some point as the price drops”. And that is true usually (except Detriot strangely). And conversely you could say that there is always pent up demand to sell if prices go high enough. If someone is crazy enough to offer you $2.5 Million for your $250,000 shack… well you just might be tempted to put it on the market and sell. If houses in Vancouver were selling for $10,000 there would most likely be a massive release of this “pent up demand” to buy $10,000 houses. Our media is too lazy (or stupid?) to dig into these kinds of statements when someone spouts them off. Ignore it… just more marketing garbage.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 12:22 pm 43
I’m seeing big increases in New West, North Van, Burnaby SFH listings. Historical highs for this time of year. VW has stalled out; VE puttering along. Condos downtown nothing special on the inventory side. I don’t know what all that means except that our little crashlet is *not* a “Van has too many condos; it’s just condos; houses are safe from all this” thing. It is in fact inventory growth and sales declines are mostly a SFH thing, from what I see.
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March 15th, 2013 at 12:25 pm 44
@ #40
I think you missed my point entirely (while most others here seemed to grasp the idea pretty quickly). Yes, the #’s in Vanc and Vic were DOWN, but graph #2 does a very poor job of illustrating that (perhaps by design). A casual bystander could very easily glance at this and conclude the BC markets were UP, but not by as much as Wpg or the Cdn average. I think her suggestion that the market has reversed course given the minor 0.1% twitch up in the HPI is beyond farcical. By failing to include 2012 in graph #1, viewers could also get the wrong sense of where the market has gone recently. As you all know, it didn’t move up in a straight line from 2011 to 2013 as this graphic suggests.
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March 15th, 2013 at 12:34 pm 45
@ bullwhip29 –
Funny you mention Steve Darling, my wife walked through an open house and he was the one leading the open house. He just had a friend realtor list it and he is doing the work he said.
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March 15th, 2013 at 12:39 pm 46
Garth giveth and taketh away. Praising Ben Rabidoux and sticking the boot in at the same time. That’s Turner-style Klass all the way.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 12:44 pm 47
@ HFHC
If that’s true, I wonder whose house it is?
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March 15th, 2013 at 1:12 pm 48
Recent rounds of mortgage tightening:
Feb 16, 2010 (implemented Apr 19).
Jan 17, 2011 (implemented Mar 18).
Jun 21, 2012 (implemented Jul 9) (OSFI portion implemented Nov 1)
OSFI stated it will unveil new mortgage insurer rules (that will negatively affect RE market) by “early 2013″
I wouldn’t be surprised if new OSFI insurer rules are announced near Budget date next week.
Heaven forbid, Flaherty might even be pissed enough at the banks (and the still-rising household debt) to announce new mortgage tightening rules,
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March 15th, 2013 at 1:34 pm 49
Speaking of Flaherty,
G&M: Flaherty, take note: Hong Kong tackles real estate bubble
For those who have subscription or can get around pay wall, might be an interesting read.
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March 15th, 2013 at 3:02 pm 50
#35 @not much of a name It’s a figure that comes from Economists who probably also tell you that if you take out the top 25 people in their University Economics Program, they were top of their class.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 3:37 pm 51
Someone on Garth’s has been tracking rob chipman’s data, including avg prices.
Mar 1-14 vs 2012:
Sales -10.8%,
Dollar volume -13.2%,
Avg Price -2.73%.
http://t.co/lMD2nUGRHY
– guess not a lot of mega-mansions sold in March so far..
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 3:46 pm 52
@VW #50
Much like Bob Rennie excluding more expensive properties in Vancouver to say that the average person can afford his average prices. He seemed to forget that he should have excluded the top incomes from his average person too.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 3:54 pm 53
Not much of a name… Says: “How does one quantify “pent up demand”? ”
Pent up demand is very simple to quantify. When a particualr products sales drop that means pent up demand is accumulating. The lower the sales the more the pent up demand. If you are a smart investor you can take advantage of this. For example I am currently holding tulip bulbs waiting for the demand of the 1600s to come back. I can only imagine how ‘pent up’ it is.
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March 15th, 2013 at 3:54 pm 54
@VMD, here are your updated monthly sales columns:
https://anonfiles.com/file/9eeba37f26b8f4522504b3172a4f92cf
Hopefully you’ll see this post before it’s downvoted by the dunce mob. There are some incredibly stupid people who visit this board.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 4:07 pm 55
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March 15th, 2013 at 4:15 pm 56
“How does one quantify “pent up demand”? ”
The thing to keep in mind when sales drop there are both first time buyers and the move up, down sideways buyers. You could argue first time buyers could be pent up demand because most will buy at some point. But the bulk of the market is people buying after selling their old place. If their old place doesn’t sell then the market loses the move up, down, sideways sale. And if that sale doesn’t happen then another sale is lost. It sucks to be in the real estate business when sales start tanking. It is called a death spiral.
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March 15th, 2013 at 4:15 pm 57
@VMD
I noticed that the latest “stats” used by the realtor associations are no longer mentioning 10 year averages as much as they used to and instead compare to last year. So this first half of March is only down 11% from last year which doesn’t sound that bad… until you mention that last year was the 2nd worst March in a decade and almost 20% below the 10 year average…
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 4:22 pm 58
@anonymous #53
But is it pent up of pulled forward demand?? Is what we are seeing is a return to “normal demand” but sales are lower at the moment because some of those who would be purchasing now, did so a few years ago. Sales may be lower simply because the pool of buyers is smaller since some were removed during more favourable times when the mortgage rules were looser.
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March 15th, 2013 at 4:26 pm 59
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March 15th, 2013 at 4:55 pm 60
#59:
Whether the seller gets good price doesn’t really depend on whether he’s a “must-seller”. It depends on the market condition. NYC commerical market has fully recovered from the GFC.
Besides, is Sony a “must-seller”? They are losing money hands over fists, but I don’t think they are considered distressed yet.
There is always a bull market somewhere… just not in vancouver RE now.
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March 15th, 2013 at 4:57 pm 61
#59
And if you read your article carefully, the Sony building is not even in the same neighbourhood as Google’s, so without further info it’s hard to compare the value between the two. Your “price-doubling” point is useless.
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March 15th, 2013 at 5:04 pm 62
Anon 53 – Pent up Demand
There IS pent up demand for your bulb… and the current price is around $0.25/ea to release the floods of buyers… Home Depot was all sold out!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 5:51 pm 63
I sense there’s a lot of pent up demand out there to sell.
I can’t really quantify or prove it in any way, shape or form but like Cam Muir I’m just going to throw it out there with a shit-eating grin and hope it sticks.
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March 15th, 2013 at 6:23 pm 64
I think you can get a very good idea where house prices and the overall economy in Canada are going in the not too distant future by checking out the following information from a credit market summary data table on Statistics Canada’s web site:
The total debt outstanding in Canada at the end of December 2012 (bottom line of the data table) was $5.25 Trillion. From the end of December 2011 to the end of December 2012 the total debt outstanding in Canada increased by $269 Billion. For that 366 day period the total debt outstanding in Canada increased at a rate of $735 Million per day.
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick-choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=3780122
With a total credit market debt of $5.25 Trillion and a gdp (at current prices) of $1.83 Trillion Canada’s total credit market debt is 2.86 times the size of our gdp.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/dsbbcan-eng.htm
Most people know all too well that the size of the hangover incurred the morning after is directly proportional to the amount of partying that went on the night before. The hangover that is coming to Canada and the rest of the so-called advanced economies of the world as a result of the debt-fueled party which has been going on for the last 40 years is going to be a doozy.
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March 15th, 2013 at 6:33 pm 65
Since the percent of people who are homeowners in Canada has risen to the highest it’s been in decades, one would think that the percent of non-homeowners (i.e. the source of pent-up demand) would have sunk to the lowest it’s been in decades.
Unless they can both go up at the same time?
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March 15th, 2013 at 6:49 pm 66
Rob Carrick sure likes being the bearer of bad news. Must be some kind of kink.
Rob to boomers: You don’t have enough money to retire. Consider selling your house, or trade it for smaller digs and pocket the difference.
Boomers to Rob: Pound sand. You can have our houses over our cold, dead, (impoverished, stubborn, indebted, delusional, wrinkly) bodies.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 7:18 pm 67
southseacompany, I’m afraid they can both go up at the same time. Ever falling interest rates and laxer lending lead to very marginal buyers realizing that their previously un-affordable dream could be more than a dream. They swell the ranks of pent up demand.
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March 15th, 2013 at 7:35 pm 68
I think that the price decreases seem to be glaringly in SFH, is because attached prices already seem to be back to 2007 (or even earlier) pricing — well, except for the whacky world of “pre-sales”…. but then again, when is a pre-sale really a sale? If a red dot is put on a plan, does that mean a “sale” actually happened?!
SFH have stayed higher, longer so the correction in SFH will likely seem “deeper”?
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March 15th, 2013 at 7:49 pm 69
Lead item on CTV National News tonight on “The Cooling Housing Market”….
But not to worry, Klump says everything is A-OK….
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canadian-residential-real-estate-sales-show-signs-of-cooling-1.1196787
I must say, they are following the US bubble-denier playbook to a “Tee”…. I think Mark Zandi called a US market bottom each and every year, all the way down from 2007 to 2012. Nice…..
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 7:57 pm 70
Ok you think that you have heard it all? This is an email that is from a very “successful” Kelowna mortgage broker. It was sent out to everyone on his email list today. Enjoy……
Did our Federal government pull the plug on the whole CDN economy, let’s take a look!
With the stats showing house sale numbers decreasing over the past several months in larger centres (Vancouver/Toronto) one has to wonder if prices will sustain and/or where the bottom might lie. If the current trend continues, will this affect house values beyond what we have already seen since 2008 (locally), time will tell.
One thing that has become apparent is there could be more than a few unsuspecting owners caught owing more than their home value along with high interest/debt charges and furthermore, they could unknowingly become a burden on the already flailing federal coffers (tax system) with no place to turn!
Some history, prior to 2008 a borrower could purchase a home with 5% down (even less if they were squeaky clean), you could also refinance your home if you qualified to 95% of its value to use the funds for whatever you so choose (maximum “cash-in-hand” was $200,000 with most lenders). Moving forward to today, the federal government in their wisdom (latest changes July 2012) has put a cap on a home owners ability to refinance to a limit of 80% of the current property value. Now the drop from 95% to 80% does not seem like a lot however, if you also factor in a decrease in values of a conservative 10% you have a much bigger issue. Let’s look at this from a numbers perspective:
Your home was worth $400,000 in 2008, you could refinance this to a threshold of $380,000 (95%). Now this same home is worth $360,000 (10% drop from $400,000) but you can only refinance to 80%, this brings you to a cap of $288,000 (80% of $360,000). If we move back to the $400,000 house value and you owed $330,000 in 2008 you might still owe roughly $290,000 today therefore, with a new imposed borrowing limit of $288,000 and you owe $290,000 you have no room to borrow against your home to pay-off higher rated cards, invest or even sell….don’t forget, the latter is often the case for family/economic reasons.
The term used is “under water” and this has been a prevalent issue contributing to a host of economic woes in the US (never mind their state and city tax revenues…..). So, here we sit with our federal government trying to slow the CDN real estate market, are we know starting to see some cracks in their strategy????
Since 2007 there have been many thousands of home transactions take place in Canada (2007 set the record for transactions) and many of those were first time buyers who had the ability to enter the market and often financed their first home/condo high ratio (90-95%). This picture is now being painted with a different brush, because many of these hard working first time buyers are now facing the reality they might owe more than their home is worth! I look at these rule changes and think, does this make economic sense from the standpoint that if these homes (and all homes quite frankly) had a “nominal” increase in value because as I see it, a homeowner with equity is a home owner that can support the economy which might give us the ability to re-float this mother ship (keeping in mind the reason this mother ship sank in the first place was “unregulated” corporate greed by major US financial institutions)!
Back to the numbers, let’s say a conservative borrower wanted to draw $80,000 out of his home to purchase an invest/rental/flip property (or even invest for RRSP’s). He puts down his $50,000 and finances the rest (and yes the bank makes interest profits…), this transaction will also know spin into a whole host of ancillary benefits like taxes, legal fees, accounting fees (if this was a corporate transaction) etc. (oh, did I mention money for the provincial government tax base). This same person will then invest another $30,000 in renovations/upgrades so they run to a hardware store and buy materials and appliances. This in turn creates jobs at the hardware store and when these new employees have a sense of job security they then look to the home ownership route so they buy a house, pay taxes and create jobs – let’s not foget, it’s the beginners (where we all started) that are the fabric of our economy!
Looking to the possible slowing future, this same hardware store employee has had his/her hours cut back because no one is buying building materials, the conveyance secretary has had her hours reduced because there are fewer real estate transactions because the fear instilled by the federal government’s move to “slow” growth has now created such market trepidation that she will have to use their credit cards to live. She cannot re-borrow against her home due to the fact the restrictions imposed have also made their home value drop so for sure she is in a heap of trouble (she could even be collecting EI benefits…). Next is the family down the street and he has had his hours reduced because the manufacturing plant production is down. Therefore, they cannot save or contribute to an RRSP or their children’s future, they certainly cannot sell because they owe more than their home is worth so they in-turn think about moving to seek employment but cannot sell which means what, will they become a drain on the CDN tax system? I think you get the picture – I hope this is not the makings of another reality show!
My message here is clear, if you or friends you know are experiencing financial challenges, I stronlgy suggest they seek professional advise now. If this scenario plays out their options may very well be disappearing, Canadians are truly a proud bunch who clearly see “home as sanctuary” and now is the time to ensure their house is in order.
In closing, thank you Fed for your legislated guidance thru these times, it’s not like you (or your US counterparts) have not made a blunder of the economy before….. I really wonder if you will see a lot of votes from the First Time Buyer community of the last 5 years!
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:20 pm 71
I would like a Cranteeni with my Pent up Demand, hold the ice please.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:31 pm 72
@mclovin
what a bizzare letter. why did he/she sent it? what is the context?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:36 pm 73
Are the numbers so bad today that even Paul istoo ill to post them?
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:53 pm 74
Prices across Canada are about 30% overvalued currently at these rates.
The longer these prices hold, the greater the sudden drop in the future. Demographics and Salary Trends and Immigration trends will ensure this.
Backlash against immigration will happen. can you imagine another 500,000 ‘minority’ population in metro Vancouver over the next 10 years?? I think there will be a revolt when there is no attempt at assimilation.
Salaries will decrease over the coming years. If you start a business, why wouldn’t you hire temporary foreign workers at minimum wage even if a skilled occupation?…
Retirees are going to see cutbacks in their pensions if rates stay low. Pension funds just cant get the returns. Also, half of a married couple passes away –>there is turmoil.
If rates rise, then overvalued by 40%+. But the people in power wont raise rates.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 8:59 pm 75
@ mclovin
That one pretty much brings tears to my eyes. Denial has moved to anger as an Okanagan mortgage broker has finally begun to grasp the obvious.
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:21 pm 76
Also, it is obvious reading the note from the note that the mortgage broker is not what you would call financially sophisticated. Yet that guy probably is one of THE most knowledgeable people on the topic of home finance in the Okanagan. This is part of the reason there is a crisis brewing … Someone left the children in charge of the chequebook and they have not surprisingly run up a huge overdraft on trips to all-inclusive resorts in Mazatlan, boob jobs and over-sized pickup trucks.
Let’s say there are 250,000 households in the Okanagan valley carrying an avg $200K mortgage, that’s $50 Billion worth of mortgages. If even 20% are in trouble in the manner he describes in his e-mail, that is a $10 B problem in just one rather minor region of BC.
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:36 pm 77
A “conservative” investor can already take $80k out of his home equity (up to 80% LTV) and spend $50k of it on a property worth up to $250k. Is mortgage-man suggesting the investor would still be conservative if he withdrew MORE equity or used MORE leverage on the income property?
…And that 2nd last paragraph. Does anyone else think he’s advocating withdrawing the maximum home equity now so you won’t be caught if your property declines in price or the rules change? It’s a scary bit of advice, but seems to be the meaning most closely aligned with what’s come before.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:52 pm 78
Am I the only one who thinks it’s significant that the TV media is heavily reporting this national real estate data, but didn’t report the February stats?
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:28 pm 79
From Mish
http://t.co/VzNW6EuG9G
Spanish foreclosure law overruled. Near term implications, there will be no consequences in Spain of not paying mortgage. We are not there yet in Cda by a long shot … But defo on the trajectory.
Watch consumer spending in Spain rebound, while bank stocks take a hit. … Remember this one. The fourth quartile is usually screwed in a housing bust, but sooner or later there is a limit to how many people a country will let banks kick onto the streets.
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:40 pm 80
According to Chipman, today rebgv saw 125 sales. We’ll wait for paulB’s #s.
Also, look at Richmond realtor Arnold Shuchat’s March 1-15 market update: http://www.shuchatgroup.com/Blog.php/richmond-real-estate-market-report-1
” activity which was increasing modestly appears to have been arrested. It could have to do with the transition to the HST rules which after April 1, 2013 becomes GST again with a substantial savings on brokerage fees. Waiting until after April 1, 2013 will save an owner thousands of dollars.”
“These are the worst numbers I have seen in a long time in terms of activity!”
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:01 pm 81
BTW, they changed the headline of the Tara Perkins article in the Globe from this…
“Real estate market outlook cools as home sales plunge”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/crea-cuts-forecast-as-home-sales-plunge-in-february/article9812647/
To this…
“Clouds gather over Canadian housing market”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/clouds-gather-over-canadian-housing-market/article9812647/
There….that’s better. A-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!!
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:29 pm 82
@ 70
Weird letter! My conclusion on the main point of the article, contrary to that of the author, is that economies should not become over-reliant on real estate. Fail!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:51 pm 83
@ 81
“CREA defended the weakening trend in home prices by stating that prices are still up by more than 125% when compared to 1965 average prices”.
Actually I just made that up, but I think it’s a reasonable expectation from the pumper crowd as the denial parade marches forward.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 2:53 am 84
Re letter from mortgage broker that mclovin cited: “In closing, thank you Fed for your legislated guidance thru these times…”
He blames everyone but the buyers who actually got caught up buying assets during a bubble (“but I thought it would only go up”). Perhaps he should place some of the blame straight back on the FIRE industry, along with the whore media and their propaganda machine.
Of course the Federal Government deserves to be kicked out on their ass for allowing the bubble to get out of control in the first place, but I’m sure everybody who was making a killing off these now sacred “first-time home buyers” were paying big campaign contributions to the politicians in order to keep the party going, and keep it going, they did.
Where were the parents who gave disgustingly bad advice to their children, who listened to the greedy realtors and the dribbling media?
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March 16th, 2013 at 7:58 am 85
Richmond sfh active listings: 954
Registered sold on March 15: 13
My prediction for sfh sales for March is, 63 units.
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March 16th, 2013 at 8:26 am 86
There’s just not enough HAM in this city. Not only we want the immigration loophole HAM, now we also want to open the door for illegal HAM
http://www.news1130.com/2013/03/14/cope-says-vancouver-should-be-sanctuary-city/
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 9:36 am 87
Thanks for the stats. I think it is importsant to watch richmond which seems to be leading the decline, which will spread to other cities.
My question : We are half way through march with only 13 sales, so why is your prediction 63 instead of 26?
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March 16th, 2013 at 10:01 am 88
I predicted about 63 sales because sales take time to register. What I see now is 13, by there are also pending sales to be registered. I only predict this number because at the half way mark in Feb, I recall seeing approx just under 30 sales. Feb ended close to the 90 mark. So if sales but 63 for March, that’s 30% below Feb which is a disaster because March is historically busier. It looks like the crash begins in Ditchmond.
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March 16th, 2013 at 10:14 am 89
The “mortgage broker” who sent out that e-mail is totally uneducated and a perfect representation of everything (and everyone) that is wrong with the industries which comprise the “R.E.I.C.”
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 10:26 am 90
” The “mortgage broker” who sent out that e-mai is totally uneducated ”
You’d think that he/she could have found a harder word to misspell than “now” and “know”.
I guess the qualifications for the job are no more demanding than the 4 week course for realtors.
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March 16th, 2013 at 10:35 am 91
> Feb ended close to the 90 mark. So if sales but 63 for March, that’s 30% below Feb which is a disaster because March is historically busier.
8| i’m absolutely floored by this possibility… wow. if this pans as you’re projecting it is full on, no holds barred, crash-o-rama.
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March 16th, 2013 at 11:06 am 92
I enjoy reading comments at the end of RE articles.
A year ago = prices always go up, lots of confidence, plus some bears with statistics no one wanted to understand
For the past 3 months = very bearish bubble talk
NEW TREND (a few weeks) = Very polarized (sellers vs buyers). Sellers believing that buyer will HAVE TO buy at some point + sellers THREATENING to hold on to their price. I prize they understanding of economic forces
Greed…
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 11:17 am 93
hey guys, can we stop talking about actual sales and talk more about how some talking head was spouting off about “pent up demand”?
how PR men are spinning things seems like it’s the most important thing to me.
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March 16th, 2013 at 11:19 am 94
From the Mortgage broker Letter:
“as I see it, a homeowner with equity is a home owner that can support the economy which might give us the ability to re-float this mother ship (keeping in mind the reason this mother ship sank in the first place was “unregulated” corporate greed by major US financial institutions)!”
Kind of funny he is calling out the US corporate greed for sinking the economy while at the same time he is trying to do the exact same thing here. He wants to pump the bubble bigger because of his own greed.
I also agree the intent of the letter is to get people to max out a HELOC prior to their house going down further in value. What a scum bag.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 11:36 am 95
“(keeping in mind the reason this mother ship sank in the first place was “unregulated” corporate greed by major US financial institutions)”
No mention of the greed of private individuals.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 11:39 am 96
Blast from the past.. Some of you may remember my old landlord ‘impulse’ bought a 1.3Million dollar home last spring… Under the impression we would happily pick up and move right along with them and pay $1500 on their mortgage a month for a postage stamp apartment.. because ooooOOOOooooo it had in floor heating and nothing else very useful..
Had the landlord been fortunate enough to rent the day he took possession July 31st 2012, he would have successfully rented this gem for a mere 8 months.. and now what do I stumble upon but the same place he was trying to get us to move into.. $1500 plus 35% utils (hey isn’t portioning out utilities against the rules in BC?)
The room with the Gym equipment.. Yeah that is the Living room! That Door just to the left of the living room? A converted garage ‘bedroom’ with zero windows..
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/bnc/apa/3683728261.html
I’ll be watching this one to see if he finds someone stupid enough to live there at that price.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 1:12 pm 97
it’s fascination to see the price declines cascade through the market.
buyers are starting to asking themselves serious questions:
is that east side home worth it, when i can get a west side home for a little more, now that west side prices are down?
is that burnaby/new west home worth it now that i can get a richmond home for a little more, now that richmond prices are down?
these sorts of questions are going to result in price declines spreading through the region and we will start to see sharper declines in the GVRD and lower mainland price stats as the laggards play catch-up.
but things will get really interesting when people start asking this question: “is that condo really worth it, when i can get a house for just a little bit more?”
high condo prices have thus far been held up by high housing prices. if the SFH market sees serious declines condos will be absolutely destroyed.
i believe that the most important factor when determining price of real estate is availability of credit, but there it is true that they aren’t making any more land. but they can make as many fucking condos as they want. so once that sector sees serious depreciation i expect it to go straight down and not hit the sides.
thus far the value of condos on the west side ( includes downtown ) have been stable of the past 5 years. this is exactly because they can always throw up a new building.
the skyboxes are held by first time buyers, speculators, and amateur land lords. these are very vulnerable and exposed groups. and they are going to get rocked hard.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 1:53 pm 98
This years assessment for property discussed in #96:
2012 Assessment ->$1,257,000
Paid -> $1,269,000 Sale 22/Apr/2012 Took possession 31/July/2012
Loss so far -> $12000
Not including transfer fees, Realtor commissions, taxes etc.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 1:54 pm 99
Ethnic wars have begun…
http://www.news1130.com/2013/03/16/some-richmond-residents-not-happy-with-chinese-only-signs/
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 2:13 pm 100
Friday Numbers:
Sales: 125
Price Changes: 88
New Listings: 192
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March 16th, 2013 at 2:56 pm 101
Anonymous,
I have some DUTCH CLEANSER under the sink…it’s the best ethnic cleanser around!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 3:25 pm 102
Anonymous1 – you forgot to mention that the councillor bringing the issue up is Derek Dang, who looks very CHINESE. So you will have to keep your racial scaremongering for another comment.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 3:50 pm 103
oh great. now we are going to have 2 pages debating fucking signs.
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March 16th, 2013 at 3:57 pm 104
I would appreciate it if Richmond realtors continue to post the “PRICE REDUCED” signs in English.
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March 16th, 2013 at 3:58 pm 105
New listing on Van West. This flipper may make some money?
2054 WESTERN PW, VANCOUVER
Listed in May, 2008, $2,398,000. Rebuilt in 2010.
Now asking for $5,999,000
Assessed value: $5,986,000
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V995874&REBoards=All&From=MLS
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 4:58 pm 106
G&M: The fears that grip Canadians as debts rise, housing prices fall and incomes stall
(1:00)
“I’ve lost my job about a month ago. Believe me, I’m very happy about it. I can go back to school..
What’s the worst that’s gonna be?
I’m not able to apply for more mortgage? Who cares?
You know, Sell your home! Done! No fear.”
– the pent-up supply is strong with this one.
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March 16th, 2013 at 5:04 pm 107
“I guess the qualifications for the job are no more demanding than the 4 week course for realtors.”
Mortgage brokers: guys not smart enough to be Realturds. What’s that tell ya?
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March 16th, 2013 at 6:13 pm 108
@Troll#100
Are you pulling numbers out of your ass to pollute the board or do you have a “Quotetron” with real numbers?
In the meantime we have Larry’s numbers:
There must be humans involved in the process for REBGV numbers. There was either no activity on Friday or the keepers of the totals left early. If the real @paulb or anyone familiar with the actual workings of the REBGV listing system reads this post, please answer a group of very basic questions about business hours and snapshot data:
(1) How many days does it take for a transaction (add, update, or delete) on the listing system before it is counted? Are listing adds/sales/changes/deletes during Friday business hours counted only on the following Monday? How does this actually work?
(2) Why are most of @paulb’s posts in the past for a particular day posted around 9am local time? Those posts surely represent the previous day’s activity, do they not? Are recent @paulb evening (5pm’ish) snapshot posts still for the previous day, or are some current day transactions also counted?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 6:30 pm 109
@108 short’em
Valid questions for someone who’s new to VCI.
First, “Troll”s numbers had been shown to be reliable. He seems to have MLS access. The sales numbers he posted were confirmed by rob chipman’s numbers on his blog.
Second, paulB always posted around 4-7pm. The time stamps of old posts were messed up thanks to server reset/restore from previous attacks/server failures.
Third, yattermatters numbers are computer generated, unlike before, when Larry would manually input daily stats like paulB. Larry’s coverage area is different than paulb’s.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 7:55 pm 110
@VMD#109,
Thank you for filling in some details. One problem remains. Where numbers are supplied without inventory or inventory is supplied that is not mathematically related to previous postings, it is shot in the dark. Continuous and mathematically consistent inventory numbers are exactly what is missing from the official REBGV “stats” packages – probably by design!
Ultimately, without a self consistent inventory number along with the sales and listings, there is no way to know the actual book and remaining inventory consumption rate. The calculations based on such ‘two legged stool’ numbers are highly suspect and there are many who post them here without realizing how sloppy their work really is!
Based on sequential @paulb posts with inventory I see that inventory expiries/delists can be anywhere from 50 to 500 listings in one day! If there is no way to know how many expired (only listings and sales are quoted) then, relative to inventory consumption rate, those listing and sales numbers are irrelevant.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 8:04 pm 111
Heat map for Lower Mainland Rentals.
Pretty cool.
http://rentheatmap.com/vancouver.html
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 8:24 pm 112
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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March 16th, 2013 at 9:57 pm 113
@Short’em High
Like I said, The numbers are less useful if you’re looking for 100% accuracy or day-to-day comparison. Housing market does not move like a stock market. It’s more useful to use it to find the trend over a period of time rather than a specific data point.
#Sales doesn’t really report the number of sales that happened on that day, sales could happen a week, 2 weeks or even a month before. I imagine there are clerks at REBGV who types in the sales off the pile of sales report from each RE company every day throughout the day. So if you pull the number at 3pm it’s less than the numbers at 5pm. Sometimes #sales are unusually low, and the next day it caught up. Computer issue? Nice day outside? Office party? Who cares.
Point is, the Titanic is sinking and you’re arguing there are an uneven number of chairs on the deck.
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March 16th, 2013 at 10:13 pm 114
@short’em
Ultimately, to get the raw stats you’ll need MLS access or even better, access to REBGV or CMHC database. Until the competition bureau wins over the RE boards, we’ll have to be thankful for all the data sources we get.
There had been some websites providing near-live sale stats (incl asking price and sale price history) , but they all met the same end.
Lets hope for better data transparency in the not too distant future.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 10:54 pm 115
RaggedyRenter Says:…Titanic is sinking and you’re arguing there are an uneven number of chairs on the deck.
No. It’s more like I’m trying to figure out how big and where the hole is in the hull in order to plan a route to the where the life rafts are.
If a truly valid inventory consumption model is available, then one can begin to estimate other things like the projected equilibrium price and ultimately the price bottom.
http://www.google.ca/search?q=supply+demand+curve&hl=en&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&biw=552&bih=458&sei=SVBFUeblFI6-qQG8q4CgBQ
To answer the question of price bottom without resorting to rent equivalent, you need that inventory consumption rate nailed down. That provides a high quality estimate on how far the aggregate demand curve has shifted to the left and away from equilibrium with respect to the distribution of sale prices (or income carry rates). Next, using the change in HPI for the same period, you can estimate how fast the supply curve shifted to the right in response to the rate of decreased demand.
This sort of analysis will output a future equilibrium price and a schedule for the rate of price change given a hypothetical inventory consumption rate. Monte carlo simulation could be used to obtain a range of outcomes and their probabilities.
You are right about one thing. If one has more than a layman’s understanding of matters, there is a whole lot more to think about than deck chairs on the sinking Titanic. With the right information, and knowhow to use it, one can do more than just survive.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 11:06 pm 116
This is seriously scary, only 2 weeks between these complete lies by a sovereign finance minister!
March 1st Reuters article:
“Really and categorically – and this doesn’t only apply in the case of Cyprus but for the world over and the euro zone – there really couldn’t be a more stupid idea,” Michael Sarris, [Cyprus’s new finance minister] who took over his post on Friday, told reporters.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/01/uk-cyprus-bailout-idUKBRE9200LS20130301
March 16th Reuters article:
“I wish I was not the minister to do this,” Cypriot Finance Minister Michael Sarris said after 10 hours of late-night talks where euro zone finance ministers agreed the package.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/16/uk-eurozone-cyprus-idUKBRE92F02P20130316
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March 16th, 2013 at 11:12 pm 117
@VMD Says:… Until the competition bureau wins over the RE boards, we’ll have to be thankful for all the data sources we get…
I agree 100%. Every bit of information should be categorized appropriately and filed away just in case.
What are your thoughts on why REBGV never includes an inventory number in their monthly releases? Is there any official REBGV report with inventory?
Does any RE board officially report inventory in Canada? If not, this would be a simple ask of the Competition Bureau on remedial priorities.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 16th, 2013 at 11:25 pm 118
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March 16th, 2013 at 11:44 pm 119
@BLISTINGAGENT:
“I would appreciate it if Richmond realtors continue to post the “PRICE REDUCED” signs in English.”
Yes, some things in Richmond are quite un-harmonious.
I don’t know if the business is still there, but there used to be a carwash in Richmond called “Everybody’s/Universal Carwash”. Problem with that name: their store sign was *only* written in Chinese. I know how many of your will react: “Obviously, that kind of business owner doesn’t care for non-Chinese customers. It’s his choice if he wants to lose business”.
But that is not how our society works. I know several examples of Chinese-owned businesses in Vancouver that in fact have straight up turned away non-Chinese customers.
Obviously most Chinese business owners do not act this way, but it only takes a few for a reputation to spread.
If you want to call me a racist for mentioning this, then please don’t forget to also label as racist any African-Americans that bemoan being turned away from white-owned businesses.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 12:13 am 120
Back with my friends today thinking of moving from West Side. What I find amazing is the claptrap they take at face value from their realturd. Realturd is telling them this is a perfect time to buy in their intended destination because now you have the proper time to get the house inspected and check out the schools.
While there is a very small element of truth in that advice, it is just incredible how little the realturd either understands or is willing to communicate about valuation, supply/demand, etc. We are talking about a $2-3 million sale and a $1-2 million buy and all they are really getting as professional advice is somethin akin to the “advice” you get from the salesgirl at Banana Republic, saying “No, your ass doesn’t look fat in those jeans.”
Something else which amazes me is that the family in question is more or less financially savvy, has business degrees. I can hint and suggest data sources all I like, but my advice is seen as “amateur” compared to the professional advice offered by the realturd. However, when the guy buys a new $800 TV he reads every independent review possible, grills the salesman at Best Buy and gets a pretty good deal. But when he blows his whole life savings (and, let’s face it, more like 5 lives worth of savings) he succumbs to the repetition of old wives’ tales by a conflicted moron.
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March 17th, 2013 at 12:20 am 121
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March 17th, 2013 at 12:24 am 122
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:07 am 123
@122
So a night at Swiss Chalet and sweatpants afterwards?
Don’t get me wrong that’s awesome, but not for a Saturday night.
As I drift to bed after another Nucks loss…
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March 17th, 2013 at 2:24 am 124
@117 short’em
REBGV does provide total inventory # every month except the January releases.
That’s how Jesse makes his nice inventory graphs every month at his Blog
What would be even more useful is if they provide inventory numbers by region and by dwelling type. Some VCI members with access are kind enough to post these data few times a month.
A project I was thinking of was to set up a system for people with MLS access (or other means of finding recent sale prices) to anonymously submit sale info (esp sold price history) into a database. The only question is if RE Board lawyers consider “sold price” as their “property”… We can already find out past-year sold prices posted publicly on the bc assessment website.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 2:25 am 125
Anonymous said:
“Curious did the carwash say whites not welcome? Were you turned away because you are not Chinese? Of course not.”
As a said, I know examples of local Chinese-owned business that *have* turned away customers because they are not Chinese.
Like, for example the travel agent who looked surprised to see a non-Chinese person come in to take advantage of a price that had only been advertised in Chinese: “That special advertised price is only for Chinese customers”.
Chinese-only signs are dog whistles that translate to: “You are not welcome here if you are not Chinese”.
To think anything otherwise is naive in the extreme.
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March 17th, 2013 at 5:24 am 126
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March 17th, 2013 at 7:59 am 127
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March 17th, 2013 at 8:36 am 128
@VMD#124,
That’s a good idea about sale price data. If sale prices are lined up to match inventory reports, a formal supply/demand analysis can be undertaken using the demand shifted price distribution idea I suggested.
BTW. I see 10 years of monthly inventory points on @jesse’s graph, but the earliest news release is only 5 years ago (2008):
@jesse, pardon me for asking, but where can one see the tabular data from which the inventory graph is based? And, from what publication(s) do the months earlier than April 2008, come from?
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March 17th, 2013 at 9:31 am 129
From The Province “funnies” section.
http://www.theprovince.com/news/Former+others+condo+developer/8110953/story.html
Oops! If former PM Kim Campbell lost money on a “sure thing”, maybe now it dawns on Joe Howmuchamonth he could lose money too.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 9:39 am 130
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March 17th, 2013 at 9:58 am 131
” Does an English only sign translate to “French people are not welcome here”? ”
In Quebec it does, which is why they’re not allowed.
Putting a sign on a business that is only in a minority or foreign language gives the message that majority locals are unwelcome. This is something the Chinese understand quite well from their own history.
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March 17th, 2013 at 10:08 am 132
@short
you noticed how developers are counter suing Campbell as well, ha-ha lawyers galore…they will all (developers + flipers) loose whole loads of money on legal fees as well..could not happen to nicer people
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March 17th, 2013 at 10:29 am 133
I hear ya Ham Solo, I have friends looking to buy on the west side right now, and they just keep pointing out to me that their realtor is a really smart guy, been in the business for 20 years and knows all the ins and outs of the market, and would not steer them wrong. Of course he’s telling them its a great time to buy, that they are getting in just before the market is about to start moving up again ….
I’ve emailed them soooo many articles pointing to exactly the opposite, and written by people with far greater intellect than their realtor, but it doesn’t seem to dissuade them in any way.
At this point it’s just annoying, I’m almost wanting them to buy just to prove what an idiot their realtor is.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 10:46 am 134
@129: I can’t believe they would actually say that. Doesn’t this sink their case?
As for this language stuff, isn’t there a reddit forum where people can go argue about being oppressed by minorities?
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March 17th, 2013 at 10:53 am 135
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March 17th, 2013 at 11:00 am 136
vangrl Says: “At this point it’s just annoying, I’m almost wanting them to buy just to prove what an idiot their realtor is.”
No, if they buy the realtor is not an idiot. He is a good salesman. Your friends are the idiots. The realtor will collect his commission and need not worry about the future value of the house.
Tell your friends to make a deal with the realtor. If the future assessed value of the house has not increased in 3 years time he refunds the commission. If it does go up they double his commission.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 11:09 am 137
bon jovi Says: “noticed how developers are counter suing Campbell as well, ha-ha lawyers galore…they will all (developers + flipers) loose whole loads of money on legal fees as well..could not happen to nicer people”
Likely fore fitting the 368K deposit will not cover the difference from today’s sale price compared to what Kim Campbell signed up for. I am not sure how long this will take to settle in court but Kim Campbell the other speculators are taking a huge risk if they do not win. If the place sits empty for another 2 years and then they end up on the hook for it after prices are down more, plus the developers legal fees, plus costs for the developer holding it for all that time they will really be screwed. Those presale contracts are written by the developers lawyers so they are not so easy to get out of.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 11:21 am 138
In retrospect, calling the realtor an “idiot” was wrong and a bit harsh … Proving that their realtor might not have their best interest in mind (unlike their friends and family) is what I’d like to see happen.
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March 17th, 2013 at 11:47 am 139
RE signs in Chinese: When I was travelling in Japan or in India, some signs were also written using a latin alphabet, so that more people could read them. I think shop owners could have the courtesy of doing the same in Canada.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 12:11 pm 140
@Anonymous Says:…the house has not increased in 3 years time he refunds the commission. If it does go up they double his commission.
Is a side bet to win back a few percent compensation for the chance at being down 50% a good trade? A bet like that actually increases the risk adjusted cost of the overall speculation bet from the buyer’s perspective. A realtor who offers this bet is even a better salesman if he pairs his position with credit default insurance on the “buyer” (read victim).
To learn about making worthwhile risk adjusted trades see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:17 pm 141
Short’em High Says: “Is a side bet to win back a few percent compensation for the chance at being down 50% a good trade?”
No, but by asking the realtor to do this would tell you how confident he really was the market was not heading down. Vangirls friends might get the message when the realtor declines such as offer. If he takes it then getting 10K or so back is better than nothing.
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:18 pm 142
Short’em High Says: “To learn about making worthwhile risk adjusted trades see:”
Yes I think I will learn how to trade from Wikipedia. LOL!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:22 pm 143
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:31 pm 144
“That special advertised price is only for Chinese customers”.
That is grounds for a complaint to the human rights commission. The tribunal may give you an award of 5-10k for jurt dignity Usually HR complaints are made against white men by racial, sexual minorities, the disable etc.
With our changing society it’s only a matter of time before the shoe is on the other foot and the white guy gets told “your kind is not welcome here”.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:42 pm 145
February 2013 sales and inventory stats are out from BCREA. Here are the MOIs for each of BC’s sales regions.
BC Northern
Inventory: 2044
Sales: 277
MOI: 7.4
Chilliwack
Inventory: 1479
Sales: 135
MOI: 11.0
Fraser Valley
Inventory: 7326
Sales: 867
MOI: 8.4
Greater Vancouver
Inventory: 15758
Sales: 1822
MOI: 8.6
Kamloops
Inventory: 1860
Sales: 143
MOI: 13.0
Kootenay
Inventory: 2495
Sales: 82
MOI: 30.4
Okanagan Mainline
Inventory: 5129
Sales: 304
MOI: 16.9
Powell River
Inventory: 200
Sales: 16
MOI: 12.5
South Okanagan
Inventory: 1526
Sales: 66
MOI: 23.1
Northern Lights
Inventory: 239
Sales: 29
MOI: 8.2
Vancouver Island
Inventory: 5017
Sales: 376
MOI: 13.3
Victoria
Inventory: 3252
Sales: 384
MOI: 8.5
Provincial Totals
Inventory: 46325
Sales: 4501
MOI: 10.3
Outside Vancouver
Inventory: 30567
Sales: 2679
MOI: 11.4
Good lord, 30+ MOI in the Kootnays. And the rest of the province isn’t doing much better. For example, here are some YoY MOI comparisons for the larger regions:
Fraser Valley +33%
Vancouver +51%
Okanagan Mainline +16%
Victoria +32%
Fortunately, this year will see a bottoming out of prices before another historic rise, just like 2009, so it’s a great time to buy. At least according to the real estate experts quoted in the Vancouver sun. And why would they lie?
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:53 pm 146
“That is grounds for a complaint to the human rights commission.”
It would be if the story was true. Unfortunately people can make up what ever they want in the blogosphere.
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:57 pm 147
People can also accuse other people of lying whenever they want in the blogosphere.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 2:38 pm 148
@Cam Cubed,
Thank you for posting inventory! Since you are familiar with the BCREA releases, do have an opinion on why the BCREA number for Greater Vancouver is higher than the official REBGV number?
REBGV SAYS:
http://www.rebgv.org/news-statistics/home-sales-continue-below-average-pace
BCREA SAYS:
http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/news-2013/2013-02.pdf
Why did Muir add 15758-14789=969 listings to the REBGV number? There is a footnote for something else that says “* Numbers may not add [up] due to rounding”, but that doesn’t explain it. (My edit added for humor.)
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 2:59 pm 149
@Anon#141-#142,
Yes, that would be a wise negotiating tactic if the buyer suggests realtor forgo commission in the event of price decline in exchange for doubling the commission. BUT, if realtor suggests the same wager, buyer should be suspicious for the reason I suggested. If the realtor can somehow hedge his side of the bet, he is not actually risking anything. Buyer beware!
Regarding Wikipedia’s article on the Kelly Criterion, that principle was not invented by the authors of Wikipedia. You can read about it in any number of published non-fiction books if you like:
http://www.amazon.com/Kelly-Capital-Growth-Investment-Criterion/dp/9814293490
Kelly’s original 1956 paper is also floating around the internet.
Also, if you ever get a chance to talk with Warren Buffett personally, you can ask him why he likes the Kelly Criterion. Apparently he uses it for investment decisionmaking.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 3:02 pm 150
@ShortEm
I too have noticed that discrepancy, which I can’t explain. I have two guesses:
1. BCREA uses numbers from the last day of the month, while REBGV uses numbers from the first day of the month. There is usually a large number of expires between those two days which may account for the difference.
2. Alternatively, the REBGV numbers may include less property types than the BCREA, just like PaulB includes things like vacant land while Larry does not.
Here are PaulB’s numbers from Feb:
Feb 28: 15738
Mar 1: 15466
Since BCREA used the figure 15758, I assume they use the same stats as Paul B uses for the last day of the month (at least they are very close). Since REBGV used a value of 14789, I can only conclude that #1 above is more likely the case, i.e. REBGV is excluding certain property types such as vacant land that are included in the BCREA numbers.
I have taken the approach to always use the BCREA numbers in my calculations, to ensure consistency. The downside to this is that I can’t be sure if my MOI calculations can be used to predict price movements via Jesse’s analysis, since I believe he uses the REBGV numbers in his famous correlation graphs.
All in all, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the real estate cartel when they can’t even provide internally consistent data, does it?
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March 17th, 2013 at 3:12 pm 151
Really nice “bear-ish” tone to this article in The Province regarding Ol’ Kimbo’s attempt to bail-out of her condo at the Georgia Hotel:
“Former PM Kim Campbell sues to get out of purchase in falling Vancouver condo market – Developer sues back to enforce deal
By Sam Cooper, The Province March 16, 2013″
http://www.theprovince.com/business/Former+Campbell+sues+falling+vancouver+condo+market/8110518/story.html
“As Vancouver’s condo market plummets, former prime minister Kim Campbell is suing a developer in an effort to get out of her pre-sale contract for a $1.8-million downtown condo.
In late February, lawyer Bryan Baynham filed a lawsuit for Campbell against Hotel Georgia Management Ltd., alleging the developer delayed completion of her unit in the Private Residences at Hotel Georgia for more than a year, and failed to properly disclose changes in the completion date.
In online advertising, units in the new 47-storey concrete tower above the refurbished heritage hotel are billed as some of “the finest condominium homes in the world.”
In an interview Friday with The Province, Baynham said Campbell is one of 13 purchasers of 14 units who he is representing in cases against the developer. All 13 clients are seeking the return of their deposits.
Campbell put down a $368,000 deposit in October 2007 for her unit, valued at purchase at about $1.8 million, Baynham said. The unit was promised for completion in December 2011, he said, but only completed in mid-January 2013.
The lawsuits come as housing sales in B.C. have dropped by 24 per cent in February 2013 from a year earlier, the B.C. Real Estate Association said last week, while prices have dropped eight per cent….”
Beautiful…..just beautiful. Must…bail…out…of….terrible…condo…purchase!!!!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 3:26 pm 152
#145 Cam Cubed: Comox Valley: Feb. MLS inventory: 850, Sales: 36, MOI: 23.6
I suspect reason MOI for Van. Isl. is only 13.3 is because it is skewed up by low Victoria figure of 8.5. Certainly the Comox Valley was supposed to be one of the housing hot spots on Vancouver Island but the current figures put paid to that idea.
In the big RE crash of the early 1980’s this area was incredibly hard hit but both Vancouver and Victoria seemed to escape relatively unscathed. Many of us here at that time had to depart to greener pastures – yours truly to Victoria. It will be interesting to see if the same pattern repeats this time or if both Vancouver and Victoria also crash.
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March 17th, 2013 at 4:01 pm 153
[…] INVENTORY/LISTINGS ARE HIGH: “I’m seeing big increases in New West, North Van, Burnaby SFH listings. Historical highs for this time of year. VW has stalled out; VE puttering along. Condos downtown nothing special on the inventory side. I don’t know what all that means except that our little crashlet is *not* a “Van has too many condos; it’s just condos; houses are safe from all this” thing. It is in fact inventory growth and sales declines are mostly a SFH thing, from what I see.” [price declines will effect all sub-sectors of the market. -ed.] – VHB at VCI 15 Mar 2013 12:22pm […]
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March 17th, 2013 at 4:34 pm 154
Using Troll’s numbers from post #100:
Total days 20
Days elapsed so far 11
Weekends / holidays 4
Days missing 0
Days remaining 9
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 119
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 236
SALES
Sales so far 1246
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1073
Projected month end total 2319
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 2761
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 2120
Projected month end total 4881
Sell-list so far 45.1%
Projected month-end sell-list 47.5%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of Mar 13th, 2013 16228
MoI at this sales pace 7.00
New listings are low. Sales are very low. Realtor activity is low. Bear stress is low. Real estate agent and over-leveraged fool stress is high!
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March 17th, 2013 at 5:03 pm 155
@ford perfect
The Victoria stats are not included in Vancouver island stats. Victoria has its own real estate board and pretty much everything north of the Malahat is part of Vancouver island real estate board.
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March 17th, 2013 at 5:16 pm 156
#155: Nanaimo: Thanks. Well there goes that theory!
Maybe the VIREB numbers differ wildly from mine. I take the inventory numbers directly from the MLS listings in the Comox Valley. I sample 6 to 8 days per month (the “matches”) and then just average them.
Also I have discovered that non-MLS sales by realtors are sometimes included in MLS sales. Apparently if a realtor is competing for a real estate award based on sales, he or she can bring in sales from shadow inventory and show them as MLS sales.
I suspect we have to accept that these MOI figures are a best estimate of a range of a month or more.
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March 17th, 2013 at 5:20 pm 157
Went to a sales centre for a condo development in NV today (Remix). The hole has been dug and construction is underway for a completion date of early 2014. Off the about 60 units total I counted about 20 have been sold. That doesn’t bode well. I was told by the sales person in the mock up that they are working on various “packages” that will be rolled out soon. Perfect. Now add in the two Onni towers at 13th and Lonsdale that received approval. Can you say inventory!!! Lots and lots coming.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 5:34 pm 158
“Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows!”
Cyprus parliament just passed the “THEFT LAW”
The govt. there just took away 10% from peoples
bank savings account. House prices plummeting
by 44%. CHMC will need mucho $$$$$.
Will Canadian govt. also pass a theft law and
remove 10% or more from TFSA, RRSP and whatever?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 6:00 pm 159
@Cam Cubed,
If it helps form a better opinion, Mar/Feb daily expiries in the vicinity of the month end can be calculated exactly from the available contiguous @paulb postings. See the table below.
date new chg sales inv expiries
Tue, Feb 19, 13 259 93 106 15251 51
Wed, Feb 20, 13 262 104 100 15364 49
Thu, Feb 21, 13 217 77 70 15451 60
Fri, Feb 22, 13 208 65 103 15494 62
Sat, Feb 23, 13
Sun, Feb 24, 13
Mon, Feb 25, 13 232 112 103 15559 64
Tue, Feb 26, 13 237 102 130 15610 56
Wed, Feb 27, 13 221 83 102 15678 51
Thu, Feb 28, 13 174 102 70 15738 44
Fri, Mar 1, 13 241 86 72 15466 441
Sat, Mar 2, 13
Sun, Mar 3, 13
Mon, Mar 4, 13 326 126 121 15577 94
Tue, Mar 5, 13 297 102 152 15638 84
Wed, Mar 6, 13 263 88 109 15739 53
Thu, Mar 7, 13 225 87 99 15812 53
Fri, Mar 8, 13 231 75 97 15906 40
Sat, Mar 9, 13
Sun, Mar 10, 13
Mon, Mar 11, 13 289 139 124 16003 68
Tue, Mar 12, 13 283 118 140 16106 40
Wed, Mar 13, 13 213 99 112 16155 52
Thu, Mar 14, 13 201 93 95 16228 33
Since two consecutive complete postings with daily inventory numbers are required to calculate the expiries, the day after and before this range cannot be calculated.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 9:05 pm 160
kabloona kabloona Says:
March 17th, 2013 at 3:12 pm
Really nice “bear-ish” tone to this article in The Province regarding Ol’ Kimbo’s attempt to bail-out of her condo at the Georgia Hotel:
“Former PM Kim Campbell sues to get out of purchase in falling Vancouver condo market – Developer sues back to enforce deal
By Sam Cooper, The Province March 16, 2013″
++++++++++++++++
I find it completely ironic that Garth Turner was her Revenue Minister during her short stink in the PM’s office. Even SHE didn’t listen to his prognostications!!! LOL!!!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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March 17th, 2013 at 9:57 pm 161
@ford perfect
Here are some Vancouver island stats that I’m sure you will find to be helpful:
http://www.coastrealty.com/new/public/market_stats_all.php
Months of inventory is sky high in condos and townhouses
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March 17th, 2013 at 10:24 pm 162
Cold feet!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21823432
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