Where did all the buyers go?

Well here’s a counterpoint to the huge number of Canadians that own homes:

According to RBC, the number of Canadians planning on buying a home in the next two years has dropped to a record low.

Sean Amato-Gauci, senior vice-president of Home Equity Financing with RBC, says current economic and industry trends are consistent with this bleaker homebuying forecast.

But an overwhelming majority of those polled (84 per cent) still see real estate as a sound investment. While 52 per cent say now is a good time to get into the market.

Nearly half of those surveyed (49 per cent) say they expect mortgage rates to be same this time next year, while 43 per cent admit they believe home prices will continue to climb.

All clear? Fewer people than ever are planning on buying, but a majority still see ‘real estate’ as a sound investment and more than half of them think now is a good time to get into the market.. but only 15% are actually planning on buying.

Will they still be planning to buy if prices keep dropping?

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jesse
Member

Company that depends heavily on mortgage issuance publishes survey showing how government curbs were effective and no more measures are necessary. Sounds legit.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
patriotz
Member

“Will they still be planning to buy if prices keep dropping?”

Doubt it, since the public only seems to see RE as a “sound investment” if buying is more expensive than renting.

patriotz
Member

Surprisingly good article about Canadian tax residency and obligations:

Working abroad won’t spare you from tax hit at home

These rules are longstanding, the measures that the Cons have been talking about recently are enforcement.

But note:

Canada does have a tax treaty with China dating back to 1986, but it does not apply to Hong Kong.

I sort of get the impression that the PRC does not consider that its obligations to Canada under the treaty include reporting income earned there by deemed residents of Canada.

patriotz
Member
vangrl
Member
vangrl

Rob Carrick has a great graph attached to his facebook post:

“Anyone still think the housing market isn’t heading lower? Notice I didn’t use the word crash”

and some comments (such a noticeable change in sentiment):

Simon -“I am sitting out and waiting for the 20% adjustment that is coming.”

Roger – “I wait patiently for the 15% housing adjustment and the 25% Condo adjustment (average of 20%), then i will buy my retirement condo”

Angelica – “I just feel bad for all of those that bought high 🙁 ”

Jerome – “Simon, I think it will be more along the 35% in most parts.”

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

Hey, didn’t this happen in the US (right before the crash?) Prices weren’t going lower, not really, and yet it was all crickets around the open houses. The buyers just seemed to have disappeared. And yet the media all said that prices wouldn’t drop (much), that there was a “permanently high plateau”. Hm. Sounds eerily familiar.
Oh, but I forgot, Canada is “different”.

Keeping Eye On The Pimps
Guest
Keeping Eye On The Pimps

The participants of the survey were given a free entry to a $25,000.00 prize for a down payment.

I wonder how valid the results of the survey are?

But the pimps are getting desperate.

Realty Radio 98 has given the go ahead for Bill Slut to start pumping again.

Phil
Guest
Phil

KeOTP : is that true? Where did you hear the thing about the prize. It seems that would tend to skew the results towards answers from people who were planning to buy making the actual numbers potentially worse.

RFM
Guest
RFM
No Buyers Here! In January 2012 a five-unit strata development called ‘Strathcona Gateway’ was completed at the southeast corner of Gore Avenue and Union Street in Strathcona in Vancouver East. The five detached townhouses have ‘heritage’ architectural elements with a shared 4-car garage (parking pad for 312 Union) without storage. Floor plans available on various websites show very small rooms but an open kitchen arrangement. I have not toured these properties, but the interior photos appear to show average construction and finishing. The situs is the southeast corner of Gore Avenue and Union Street. Gore Avenue is moderately busy; Union Street is lightly traveled and is a major bike route from the east to downtown; Prior Street is one-half block to the south and is a very heavily traveled street at all hours as it is a major feeder to… Read more »
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

No spring crash bears. But don’t worry, there’s always next year. There will always be next year! Maybe the market will crash when they invent hover cars, or teleporters?

Think about it, if you can live anywhere in the galaxy why would you want to live in Vancouver with it’s ridiculous real estate prices?

Turkey
Guest
Turkey

@RFM,

I don’t have a lot of sympathy for these guys. The lot was formerly vacant, so at least they didn’t knock down a 100-year-old house to build these Lego homes. But, look at the neighbouring development (which I assume is an earlier phase by the same builders: yes, that’s an astro-turf front lawn.

Each of those properties brings in $150/mo in maintenance fees, and the best they can do is astro-turf?

VMD
Member

Richmond “Seller’s Delusion Ratio” [(Terminated + Expired Listings) / Sales] Soars – according to Richmond realtor Mr Shuchat.
http://www.shuchatgroup.com/Blog.php/richmond-real-estate-market-report-2

FlipFlop
Guest
FlipFlop

@BBB

When the google cars hit the streets this is something we may very well see.

I wouldn’t mind living in Abby, if I knew I could sleep/work/eat through my 90 minute commute.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@FlipFlop

i agree, google cars can really disrupt society. computer operated cars will be more efficient in fuel and reduce congestion, and like you said allow drivers to do other things.

this will allow people in a city with a shit poor transportation system like GVRD live farther out without suffering. this will disrupt real estate values.

also, cities like richmond will become much more desirable than they are now once you remove the human component.

Many Franks
Guest
Active Member
Many Franks

The Economist casts its baleful eye north of the border again. A good general article, if slightly behind the cutting edge.

rp1
Guest
rp1

#14 I take the WestCoast express, eat breakfast, and work on my laptop. Couldn’t do it every day though.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

March is almost over and inventory keeps going down. Looks like it’s going to be a good year

FOR THE BULLS!

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

@Bull,

Here are the daily inventory and change columns Since March 1, 2013:

inventory change
15466
15577 111
15638 61
15739 101
15812 73
15906 94
16003 97
16106 103
16155 49
16228 73
16249 21
16322 73
16366 44
16381 15
16398 17
16437 39
16467 30

Without exception, the inventory for the entire region has increased every day for which there was a reading this month. Are you talking about a particular neighborhood or apartment block? Please explain.

Bear Bear Bear!
Guest
Bear Bear Bear!

Regarding the “Strathcona Gateway” condos – not looking good for developer?:

http://www.biv.com/article/20130319/BIV0206/303199971/-1/BIV/wadaco-development-corp-and-vicki-lum-1863-w-63-ave-vancouver

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@Short’em High

my mistake. i meant months of inventory.

VHB
Member
VHB

March is the seasonal low point for MoI.

daveraver
Member
daveraver

I don’t see how people can see purchasing a home right now as a ‘sound investment’.

20-30 years ago, I would have agreed with that as home prices appreciated (more so the last 10 years). However, we’ve pretty much reached the point where it has become unaffordable. In order for something be an ‘investment’, shouldn’t it increase in value?

Personally, I seem home prices gradually declining over the next several years or more.

20 years ago, a home purchase was considered an investment; now, it really should be considered a place to live,nothing more. There are much better ways to invest money today.

BWilson
Guest
BWilson

Last week Stats Can reported Q4 2012 changes in population. BC was very weak. Net inter-provincial outflows appear to be increasing. Q4 2012 was the third worst Q4 for interprovincial migration over at least the past 25 years. This suggests outflows are accelerating as the whole year was only the 4th worst (3 worst years are 1998-2000). Since 2007 every year has seen worse net interprovincial migration than the previous year.

British Columbia
Year Net Interprovincial Migration
1986 -772
1987 16,588
1988 25,829
1989 25,829
1990 40,088
1991 34,600
1992 39,578
1993 37,595
1994 34,449
1995 23,414
1996 17,798
1997 1,980
1998 -17,521
1999 -12,413
2000 -14,783
2001 -7,028
2002 -4,445
2003 3,025
2004 7,785
2005 7,212
2006 12,799
2007 16,776
2008 10,849
2009 9,672
2010 6,212
2011 -120
2012 -8,657

N
Guest
N

@daveraver

What make something a good investment is return, not appreciation. Hoping for appreciation is speculation. Return, in the case of RE is rent (or rent equivalency, if you live there). What makes Vancouver RE a poor investment is not so much the fact that RE will not appreciate for awhile, but the fact that it costs more to hold it than it returns in rent.

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