@BWilson#130. REBGV Peak sales month follow up.

I now have a SQL database with @jesse’s REBGV news release transciptions for price prediction number crunching. A query on the aggregate MAX(sales) grouping by year gives the same result as the MATCH function in the spreadsheet that I was using. Below is the SQL result set:

1999-06-30|2339
2000-03-31|2120
2001-06-30|2831
2002-04-30|3785
2003-07-31|4023
2004-03-31|4371
2005-05-31|4434
2006-05-31|4297
2007-05-31|4331
2008-04-30|3218
2009-07-31|4114
2010-04-30|3450
2011-03-31|4080
2012-03-31|2900
2013-03-31|2347

To be clear, the peak sales month is the month(s) of the year with largest number in the sales column among all months that year. Remarkably, there was exactly one peak month every year since 1999 – no duplicates!

Whistler apartments are 43.4% down over 5 years. They are now 23% below the January, 2005 price. This is according to the REBGV.

no its not 68% across the board and nobody said it. article said that since 2007 it was 25% down across the board. but thing is we have this decline with just Americans unloading the properties in the last few years. WHat do you think what to price would do when locals (residents of Vancouver) start selling to cover their HELOCs and primary residence mortgages? I am sure you could see some deals that are 80% off that we have witnessed in markets with a lot of recreational properties like Miami, Phoenix, Vegas.

“Up to 68%” doesn’t mean 68% across the board. Would be interested to know which property this was.

@Anon
if somebody would told you just 3 short years ago, when billion of eyeballs were glued on BPOE as Global/CTV/CBC would say, that some condos would sell for 68% off would you believe them?

@Anonymous,

Although I highly doubt prices are going to fall 80-90% on average in Whistler, maybe a few properties do.

But I think it’s funny you point this out. A couple of years ago you would have said the same thing had someone told you prices were going to fall 68%! And now look!

POst#128 by BonJovi

you really think Whistler is going to come down 80-90%?? and 10 Thumbs up to ZERO down.

posts and Thumbs up like that don’t add to this blog’s credibility!

@BWilson#130, Good point about this March 2395. I just fixed that to 2347 in my sales peak table for March. [2395 is @paulb’s number which extra residential components which I would like to know more about.] So, I am using @jesse’s data which is also taken from the REBGV news releases. I haven’t gone through and verified every number except for the duplicated numbers in 1999/2000 jan/feb. Please double check you max finding algorithm. Take a look at @jesse’s REBGV “4297 2006-05-31”, where you have “2006 – March – 4033”. I notice also the REBGV YoY number in the following year’s news release often has a higher number from late sales counts. This can cause a consistency problem where one month is from the original year’s monthly report and another month is from the next year’s YoY remark. If you… Read more »

when there are blizard and snow storm in other places, the silly bears shut up. when rain is back in the best place on earth, bears start opening their mouths and bitching!

BUBBLE
BUMBLE
RUMBLE
RUMPLE
DUMPLE
DUMPEE
DUMPED
DUPPED
DOPPED
POPPED

I see this and ask myself, is this what the best place on earth is really like?
http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Vancouver+CAXX0518:1:CA

@ Short’em

I used the REBGV month end press releases. For example REBGV March 2013 sales per press release = 2347 and you have 2395.

what? no crash yet? btw, how can paulb afford to buy more diapers when silly bears arent buying!

i emailed a link about 68% price collapse from the peak to a friend in Florida. and his response was “Lets buy 2”. I told him to wait. Once local owners from Vancouver start unloading properties to cover extending mortgages on their principal residence the price in Whistler will come down to 80-90% from he peak.

@BWilson. Sorry, I pasted the wrong date column. Here are the peak dates.

2339 1999-06-30
2120 2000-03-31
2831 2001-06-30
3785 2002-04-30
4023 2003-07-31
4371 2004-03-31
4434 2005-05-31
4297 2006-05-31
4331 2007-05-31
3218 2008-04-30
4114 2009-07-31
3450 2010-04-30
4080 2011-03-31
2900 2012-03-31
2395 2013-03-31

@Admin, please delete the date column from my post #124, as they are wrong.

@BWilson, here is that post from the weekend with the 1998 missing sales months problem:

http://vancouvercondo.info/2013/03/fffa-long-weekend-edition.html#comment-197646

It is comment #70. You may also be interested in the graphical figures that I posted later in that same thread regarding the peak month.

@BWilson. Using @jesse’s data dump below

http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Monthly-Data-from-2005-Feb2013

Here are the peak sales months that I get:

1999-01-31 2339
2000-01-31 2120
2001-01-31 2831
2001-09-30 3785
2003-01-31 4023
2004-01-31 4371
2005-01-31 4434
2006-01-31 4297
2006-12-31 4331
2008-01-31 3218
2009-01-31 4114
2010-01-31 3450
2011-01-31 4080
2012-01-31 2900
2012-12-31 2395

Some of these numbers match yours and some don’t. What source are you using and would you mind sharing a link to your entire monthly sales table as @jesse did? Also, do you have years before 1999? A few days ago I posted the 1998 numbers extractd from the REBGV 1999 YoY narratives, but Jan 1998 and Dec 1998 cannot be determined this way. Do you have numbers for those missing months?

Thanks HFHC, shaping up to be a pretty slow sales week. March was the highest volume sales month in both 2011 and 2012, could it be 3 years in a row?

Highest sales months (year/month/sales)

2012 – March – 2874
2011 – March – 4080
2010 – April – 3512
2009 – June – 4259
2008 – April – 3218
2007 – May – 4331
2006 – March – 4033
2005 – May – 4434
2004 – March – 4371
2003 – July – 4023

Out of the last 10 years, peak month has been:
March – 4
April – 2
May – 2
June – 1
July – 1

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