A very expensive way to do your laundry

The Vancouver Observer has some good articles from the Real Estate trenches.

This one looks at what it’s like to shop for your first apartment in Vancouver.

What does $350k get you?

Not insuite laundry.

She lined up four apartments, all under $350,000. The cheapest is $250,000. None of them have ensuite laundry. If you think that giving someone a third of a million dollars would get you a washer/dryer, then clearly you’ve never apartment-shopped in Vancouver.

East Vancouver is heating up, because nobody who works for a living can afford to buy in the West End anymore. Rising rents make an investment property in East Van a more viable option than it once was, though proper houses remain out of reach for anyone on a Canadian wage. This keeps the pressure up in the apartment/condo market.

My Realtor says that the sales market is slower than it’s been in a long time: properties will sit for an average of 70 days. Still, there are vacant units that she won’t touch with a ten-foot pole: “I’m afraid to sell in Olympic Village, to be honest. I steer my clients away.” Dead neighborhood, small units, renovations that “probably won’t stand the test of time”.

Read the full article here.

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Short'em High
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Short'em High

@BWilson#130. REBGV Peak sales month follow up.

I now have a SQL database with @jesse’s REBGV news release transciptions for price prediction number crunching. A query on the aggregate MAX(sales) grouping by year gives the same result as the MATCH function in the spreadsheet that I was using. Below is the SQL result set:

1999-06-30|2339
2000-03-31|2120
2001-06-30|2831
2002-04-30|3785
2003-07-31|4023
2004-03-31|4371
2005-05-31|4434
2006-05-31|4297
2007-05-31|4331
2008-04-30|3218
2009-07-31|4114
2010-04-30|3450
2011-03-31|4080
2012-03-31|2900
2013-03-31|2347

To be clear, the peak sales month is the month(s) of the year with largest number in the sales column among all months that year. Remarkably, there was exactly one peak month every year since 1999 – no duplicates!

jesse
Member

I think the slur is peppered with condo hotels, which would show a significant drop in price from when people originally bought them. Turns out they were a dumb idea, and for real estate in BC that’s saying something. I’m not sure if “normal” condos are down as much as that.

Groundhog
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Groundhog

Whistler apartments are 43.4% down over 5 years. They are now 23% below the January, 2005 price. This is according to the REBGV.

Bailing in BC
Member

I agree Bon Jovi, from what I understand the majority of homes in Whistler are owned by Vancouverites, if they really start needing to sell to cover losses in Van things could get really fugly in Whistler.

bon jovi
Guest
bon jovi

no its not 68% across the board and nobody said it. article said that since 2007 it was 25% down across the board. but thing is we have this decline with just Americans unloading the properties in the last few years. WHat do you think what to price would do when locals (residents of Vancouver) start selling to cover their HELOCs and primary residence mortgages? I am sure you could see some deals that are 80% off that we have witnessed in markets with a lot of recreational properties like Miami, Phoenix, Vegas.

VHB
Member
VHB

Really crappy first 3 days of April. MoI projection getting close to 8.0. Wouldn’t take much to bump it back down, but still.

Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 3
Weekends / holidays 1
Days missing 0
Days remaining 18
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 100
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 333
SALES
Sales so far 299
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1794
Projected month end total 2093
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 1000
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 6000
Projected month end total 7000
Sell-list so far 29.9%
Projected month-end sell-list 29.9%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of April 4th, 2013 16551
MoI at this sales pace 7.91

Vote Down The Facts
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Vote Down The Facts

“Up to 68%” doesn’t mean 68% across the board. Would be interested to know which property this was.

bon jovi
Guest
bon jovi

@Anon
if somebody would told you just 3 short years ago, when billion of eyeballs were glued on BPOE as Global/CTV/CBC would say, that some condos would sell for 68% off would you believe them?

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog

@Anonymous,

Although I highly doubt prices are going to fall 80-90% on average in Whistler, maybe a few properties do.

But I think it’s funny you point this out. A couple of years ago you would have said the same thing had someone told you prices were going to fall 68%! And now look!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

POst#128 by BonJovi

you really think Whistler is going to come down 80-90%?? and 10 Thumbs up to ZERO down.

posts and Thumbs up like that don’t add to this blog’s credibility!

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

@BWilson#130, Good point about this March 2395. I just fixed that to 2347 in my sales peak table for March. [2395 is @paulb’s number which extra residential components which I would like to know more about.] So, I am using @jesse’s data which is also taken from the REBGV news releases. I haven’t gone through and verified every number except for the duplicated numbers in 1999/2000 jan/feb. Please double check you max finding algorithm. Take a look at @jesse’s REBGV “4297 2006-05-31”, where you have “2006 – March – 4033”. I notice also the REBGV YoY number in the following year’s news release often has a higher number from late sales counts. This can cause a consistency problem where one month is from the original year’s monthly report and another month is from the next year’s YoY remark. If you… Read more »

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

when there are blizard and snow storm in other places, the silly bears shut up. when rain is back in the best place on earth, bears start opening their mouths and bitching!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

BUBBLE
BUMBLE
RUMBLE
RUMPLE
DUMPLE
DUMPEE
DUMPED
DUPPED
DOPPED
POPPED

left already
Guest
left already

I see this and ask myself, is this what the best place on earth is really like?
http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Vancouver+CAXX0518:1:CA

BWilson
Guest
BWilson

@ Short’em

I used the REBGV month end press releases. For example REBGV March 2013 sales per press release = 2347 and you have 2395.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

what? no crash yet? btw, how can paulb afford to buy more diapers when silly bears arent buying!

bon jovi
Guest
bon jovi

i emailed a link about 68% price collapse from the peak to a friend in Florida. and his response was “Lets buy 2”. I told him to wait. Once local owners from Vancouver start unloading properties to cover extending mortgages on their principal residence the price in Whistler will come down to 80-90% from he peak.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

@BWilson. Sorry, I pasted the wrong date column. Here are the peak dates.

2339 1999-06-30
2120 2000-03-31
2831 2001-06-30
3785 2002-04-30
4023 2003-07-31
4371 2004-03-31
4434 2005-05-31
4297 2006-05-31
4331 2007-05-31
3218 2008-04-30
4114 2009-07-31
3450 2010-04-30
4080 2011-03-31
2900 2012-03-31
2395 2013-03-31

@Admin, please delete the date column from my post #124, as they are wrong.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

@BWilson, here is that post from the weekend with the 1998 missing sales months problem:

http://vancouvercondo.info/2013/03/fffa-long-weekend-edition.html#comment-197646

It is comment #70. You may also be interested in the graphical figures that I posted later in that same thread regarding the peak month.

VMD
Member

First 3 days of April:
Sales
2013: 299 (-40%)
2012: 496

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

@BWilson. Using @jesse’s data dump below

http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Monthly-Data-from-2005-Feb2013

Here are the peak sales months that I get:

1999-01-31 2339
2000-01-31 2120
2001-01-31 2831
2001-09-30 3785
2003-01-31 4023
2004-01-31 4371
2005-01-31 4434
2006-01-31 4297
2006-12-31 4331
2008-01-31 3218
2009-01-31 4114
2010-01-31 3450
2011-01-31 4080
2012-01-31 2900
2012-12-31 2395

Some of these numbers match yours and some don’t. What source are you using and would you mind sharing a link to your entire monthly sales table as @jesse did? Also, do you have years before 1999? A few days ago I posted the 1998 numbers extractd from the REBGV 1999 YoY narratives, but Jan 1998 and Dec 1998 cannot be determined this way. Do you have numbers for those missing months?

paulb
Member

New Listings 279
Price Changes 121
Sold Listings 106
TI:16551

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Loon
Guest
Loon

Dogs and Bears are related ! Unite
I think I’ve cracked the code why prices trail inventory, trickle down effect…anybody can back me up?

BWilson
Guest
BWilson

Thanks HFHC, shaping up to be a pretty slow sales week. March was the highest volume sales month in both 2011 and 2012, could it be 3 years in a row?

Highest sales months (year/month/sales)

2012 – March – 2874
2011 – March – 4080
2010 – April – 3512
2009 – June – 4259
2008 – April – 3218
2007 – May – 4331
2006 – March – 4033
2005 – May – 4434
2004 – March – 4371
2003 – July – 4023

Out of the last 10 years, peak month has been:
March – 4
April – 2
May – 2
June – 1
July – 1

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

The dog represents all those who post here for the benefits of informing the community at large. Vote for the dog!