Coming apart at the seams

It’s not just Vancouver.

Across Canada the condo market is looking a little peaked.

If this is a party the keg has run dry.

Toronto and Montreal are slamming the last of the jager and slurring. Vancouver is puking in the corner.

The last time we saw Whistler they were snorting white powder on the roof and screaming they could fly.

The hang-over for this one is gonna be a bitch.

It’s evident that the condo markets in Canada’s largest cities are in the midst of some sort of correction. That final chapter on this has not yet been written.

Here’s some advice. For investors, now that the condo party appears to be over, it’s worth wondering if anyone will be left with a hangover. If history is any guide, a hard landing in the condo market tends to hit those holding the financing on condo projects first and foremost.

That’s from this Globe and Mail article by Ben Rabidoux.

If you’re flustered by the Paywall at that site and you have some time downtown in the afternoon you may be able to hear it from the author himself.

Ben is doing a talk from 4 – 5pm at Canada place today on the future of the Canadian real estate market. Free pre-registration is required and we haven’t heard if there are still tickets left, but it’s worth a try if you’re interested in this subject.

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Groundhog

“i’d like to hear what you think the properties of risk are. please enlighten me. what are risk’s properties”

Not happening tonight.

Anonymous

Short’em High Says: Why are “measurements approximate, subject to buyer verification”?

Umm because the realtor is too lazy to take proper measurements and does not want to get sued?

Hey how is that short on gold doing you put on 2 days ago at the bottom. Maybe you should change your handle to ‘Short’em Low’. If you wanted to short gold high you would have put the short on over a year ago.

Bull! Bull! Bull!

>Do you understand the properties of risk, bullbullbull?

i’d like to hear what you think the properties of risk are. please enlighten me. what are risk’s properties.

Groundhog

Not sure how not overleveraging myself in RE is considered dangerous. I consider it prudent. I know far more then enough to understand the risks involved in Vancouver real estate at this point in time. Whether those risks materialize is still yet to be seen, nevertheless they are risks I am not willing to take.

Do you understand the properties of risk, bullbullbull?

Anonymous

Joe Mainlander “City of Van counts 50% of balcony as part of a buildings floor space when determining allowable floor space for proposed buildings.”

No that is not correct. They allow a certain size of balcony which is % of total sq ft of the strata unit. If you don’t use the balcony space then you build a smaller place. That is why they enclose the balconies because it allows them to have a larger indoor space in the development. If enclosed balconies only counted as 50% of a buildings floor space the developers would make the whole strata unit an enclosed balcony.

That is different from selling a place and advertising the square footage. In that case enclosed balconies count in square footage but outdoor ones do not. Two different topics.

@UBC in Crisis Mode

i was being sarcastic. overpriced properties having their prices cut don’t tell us fuck all. it’s as useful as knowing about an under-priced property that goes over ask.

advoc8

If you live in one of those ultra-small condos then the point is not to stay indoors but to get out there as much as possible to enjoy the Whalley amenities and street life.

Bull! Bull! Bull!

>Reflexivity

lol. another example of a bear who knows just enough to be dangerous… to himself.

Anonymous

mac: “My buddy went to hear Ben speak. He said Montreal is cratering, partly due to the Parti Quebecois…”

Montreal cratering? But CBC just said on the Lang & O Exchange tonight wealthy Chinese and Mexicans are buying up all the high end homes in Montreal. That is what Sotheby’s told them and they reported it as fact so it must be true.

Joe Mainlander

City of Van counts 50% of balcony as part of a buildings floor space when determining allowable floor space for proposed buildings. Hence the ‘enclosed balcony’. The developer only needs to count 50% of this by calling it a ‘balcony’ even though it’s really like an interior room. This policy can vary by municipality. Assessment for tax purposes may be different, as Camper posted.

Usually, under title, outdoor balconies and patios are considered ‘limited common property’ which means that it is limited to your use, but is common property. This is so the strata corp can still control it and not allow you do do whatever you want with it, like enclose it or change the railing style, etc.

But, for sales purposes, hey, it seems you can count it as whatever you can get away with.

UBC in Crisis Mode

If you want to keep track of the million dollar price drops in Lower Mainland, bookmark this page:

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

Groundhog

“market won’t correct until there are massive job losses or an external shock”

Reflexivity

Bull! Bull! Bull!

Montreal and Ottawa are crashing but Vancouver isn’t. It’s different here.

VHB

Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 13
Weekends / holidays 5
Days missing 0
Days remaining 8
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 128
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 279
SALES
Sales so far 1553
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1022
Projected month end total 2575
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 3837
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 2234
Projected month end total 6071
Sell-list so far 40.5%
Projected month-end sell-list 42.4%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of April 18th, 2013 17386
MoI at this sales pace 6.75

Anonymous

Looks like people are not listings in droves…market won’t correct until there are massive job losses or an external shock. interest rates are not going up so only other factors can cause it.

If the under 35 crowd was smart, which they are not, they wouldnt spend a bulk of their life paying off mortgage debt. Thats what is currently going to happen.

Crikey

, re “Has China’s Economy Hit a ‘Dead End’?”

With 7+% growth in China, the short answer to that article’s title is:
No

The long answer is:
Noooooooooooooo

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UBC in Crisis Mode

REW.CA, a BC real estate listing web site, is asking people who follow the Lower Mainland real estate market for their opinions on the effects of a possible change in the BC government.

The question: “How will the result of the BC election affect Lower Mainland real estate?”

Whispers is collecting comments, and you can post them here:

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2013/04/how-will-result-of-bc-election-affect.html

@UBC in Crisis Mode

can you post more over priced properties that have their price cut? i find those posts to be very informative.

jesse

NDP to blame for house crash? If it fits, why not? :mrgreen:

car seat cheapest.

Many thanks for every other helpful web site. Where by different could I am getting that sort of information written in this kind of best approach? I own a task that we’re right now managing in, and that i have been receiving the look available pertaining to such information.

UBC in Crisis Mode

One question from the audience: what do you think Vancouver’s housing market in 5 years.

Answer: still down. The recovery of 2009-2010 housing market won’t happen again.

I think feds can cut interest from 4% to 0.25%, but cannot go from 0.25% to below zero?

mac

My buddy went to hear Ben speak. He said Montreal is cratering, partly due to the Parti Quebecois… or maybe mostly… Ben thinks we can expect the same thing here once the Dix DetanatorTM goes off here.

Dix Detonator is a registered trademark of Mac.

Short'em High

@anonymous#47. Why are “measurements approximate, subject to buyer verification”? The developer’s lawyers are very careful about “approximate” dimensions and long numbers often persist into the rental listings and beyond. I’ve measured a few Canadian apartments in my time with both ultrasonic and fiberglass reel tape. Taking away interior room wall thickness by measuring between adjacent suite walls and from window pane to hallway door, every apartment I’ve ever measured comes up short out the window or short into the hallway, take your pick. What gives? Is the interior hallway outside the suite considered part of the suite even after the hallway walls are erected? Another cute trick is small parking spots. If a motorcycle spot is planned but never posted, a compact car spot can be “sold”. For more on these abuses see Wendy Mesley’s 2008 piece on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl6xs4e7mX0… Read more »

George Soros

Will there ever be an 18K party or are we cresting?