Coming apart at the seams

It’s not just Vancouver.

Across Canada the condo market is looking a little peaked.

If this is a party the keg has run dry.

Toronto and Montreal are slamming the last of the jager and slurring. Vancouver is puking in the corner.

The last time we saw Whistler they were snorting white powder on the roof and screaming they could fly.

The hang-over for this one is gonna be a bitch.

It’s evident that the condo markets in Canada’s largest cities are in the midst of some sort of correction. That final chapter on this has not yet been written.

Here’s some advice. For investors, now that the condo party appears to be over, it’s worth wondering if anyone will be left with a hangover. If history is any guide, a hard landing in the condo market tends to hit those holding the financing on condo projects first and foremost.

That’s from this Globe and Mail article by Ben Rabidoux.

If you’re flustered by the Paywall at that site and you have some time downtown in the afternoon you may be able to hear it from the author himself.

Ben is doing a talk from 4 – 5pm at Canada place today on the future of the Canadian real estate market. Free pre-registration is required and we haven’t heard if there are still tickets left, but it’s worth a try if you’re interested in this subject.

73 Responses to “Coming apart at the seams”

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    Anonymous2 Says:
    1

    I dunno about coming apart at the seems… the HPI for both Vancouver and Toronto are positive M/M (Toronto is positive Y/Y)

    Vancouver has had positive M/M for two months in a row now. I’m not saying, buy now, but hardly a crash..

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 19

    ThatsAllYouveGot Says:
    2

    Seriously the industry cooked HPI is all you have to go to. You might as well reference leprochauns and bigfoot. All 3 are about as equally based in reality.

    And even look at true stats in all of the big crash cities down south the was the occasional up month. Even in the big 3 of Vegas, Phoenix and Miami.

    This is a crash baby!

    It continually amazes me the ridiculous amount of control the RE industry lobby holds in Canada. Sadly the average Joe listening to MSM still gets most of his facts from quoted ‘industry experts’. Not even thinking for a moment that it is the direct equivalent of asking a car salesmen if it’s a good time to buy a car.

    The HPI seems to be just an institutionalist tool for the RE pushers to all get their story straight. “Oh no RE prices aren’t going down, they never do.” If it wasn’t so sad how easily Canadian allow themselves to be manipulated by the RE mafia it would almost be impressive how they slid that in there.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 60 Thumb down 5

    Anonymous2 Says:
    3

    “And even look at true stats in all of the big crash cities down south the was the occasional up month. Even in the big 3 of Vegas, Phoenix and Miami.”

    Really? 2 months in a row? Link?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 12

    Agree, this was hardly a year for a crash. If prices are to fall 20% or whatevs you can figure out how much worse it could get for sales. Last year was already on average meager for transactions, 2013 is starting out worse. For some people (not saying who) this is starting to matter.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 3

    Canada’s smallest-ever condos are going to be built in Whalley. The smallest units will be 297 square feet–including the balcony and the price will be $109k. The location will be on 108th Ave. near Gateway Skytrain station. Let me just say, Whalley has a bad reputation that is sometimes over exaggerated because there are some nice-ish parts of Whalley. BUT GATEWAY STATION is the WORST part of Whalley–absolutely one of the most ghetto areas of Canada. I predict this building will be a future slum. According to the article, this is “what the next generation wants.” I can’t stop shaking my head!

    http://www.theprovince.com/homes/Surrey+micro+suites+intended+those+dream+owning+home/8256935/story.html

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    6

    Q: “Whalley has a bad reputation that is sometimes over exaggerated because there are some nice-ish parts of Whalley.”

    Which parts would those be?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    7

    Teranet posted a -3.18% m/m decline for Victoria in March. That’s the biggest monthly decline they’ve posted for any city.

    However their index had been lagging the REB stats and this is probably just catching up. Victoria is a small market and their sales are currently very low compared to past years, so one would expect some noise in the index in the short run.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 2

    I think the Whalley street of Queen Mary Boulevard (in the area bounded by 128 Street, Prince Charles Blvd, 92 Ave, 132 Street, 88 Ave) is an absolutely beautiful street. The trees on that street are beautiful. I don’t know how to post links to Google Street View images but if you look it up on Google Street View you will see what I mean. Also, the area around Holland Park/King George Skytrain are becoming nicer. There is actually a huge difference between King George Skytrain and Gateway Skytrain. Gateway Skytrain is a hell hole. I am seriously scared for my safety at 108th and King George. But go a bit further south on King George and things get much better (until they get worse again at Newton area around 72nd).

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    Many Franks Says:
    9

    Canada’s consumer debt problem looking more and more like a pale made-for-TV retelling of the American story and apparently nobody has learned a thing.

    Ontario to crack down on debt-settlement agencies

    [A] trustee in bankruptcy at Sands & Associates in Vancouver said British Columbia badly needs similar legislation, where he has watched the problem escalate particularly in the last six months as desperate consumers turn to him for advice.

    “We used to see one case every few weeks – now it’s one to two cases a week,” he said.

    One of those cases is Erica, 28, who despite working two jobs, racked up $18,000 in credit card debt just by trying to keep up with the cost of living in the country’s most expensive city. She turned to a debt settlement company based on an ad she saw on Facebook to help her whittle it down.

    [...]

    “I felt like my life is over. What am I going to do? My credit is ruined,” she said. “…I’m not proud of it.

    She has now filed for bankruptcy.

    I wonder if Erica has/had a mortgage.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 1

    “Even in the big 3 of Vegas, Phoenix and Miami.”

    Vegas and Phoenix didn’t have any months where the Schiller index was up in the first year, Miami had 1. San Diego had 4

    But… the greater vancouver area after 10 months from peak has dropped faster than Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Diego in their first 10 months from peak!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 47 Thumb down 1

    specialfx3000 Says:
    11

    Why does Vancouver always pretend to be what it’s not?

    So the Canucks will host a Winter Classic next year in BC Place.

    If I’m not mistaken, the intent of the Winter Classic is to showcase a hockey game with an outdoor feel in sub-zero conditions and possibility of snow falling.

    I vision this game being played in a closed bc place stadium due to rain outside — but I guess they could always blow fake snow like they did for our Winter Olympics.

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    Anonymous Says:
    12

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Wouldn’t BBaxter’s graph settle this argument of whether or not cities in the US had more than one month increase during the spring (on the way down)? Where can we find it again?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    ” Even in the big 3 of Vegas, Phoenix and Miami.”

    I don’t know what you mean by “true stats” but by Corelogic, Case-Shiller, average, medain, and NAR measures I don’t think this is correct. Unless of course you are using another truthier measure I’m not aware of.

    I’ll be upfront with you all, the latest Teranet HPI is stronger than I would have expected given the sales and inventory numbers, however this is simply based on previous empirical relationships. That doesn’t mean they are correct — either the model is wrong, the data have noise, or there are other systematic errors that are temporarily altering same-sales pairs. According to Teranet prices are the same as they were in the fall.

    I took the Teranet HPI % change Oct-Mar from 1995-present:
    year Vancouver HPI %chg Oct-Mar
    1995 -0.15%
    1996 -0.59%
    1997 0.17%
    1998 -1.48%
    1999 -1.36%
    2000 0.37%
    2001 -0.19%
    2002 2.76%
    2003 3.25%
    2004 5.48%
    2005 2.34%
    2006 5.91%
    2007 1.17%
    2008 2.65%
    2009 -9.78%
    2010 5.37%
    2011 3.35%
    2012 -0.39%
    2013 -0.88%

    You can see right away the stark contrast between 2009 and 2013, even though 2013 arguably had conditions tending towards — but nowhere near as severe — as early 2009. Compared to 2012 when conditions were somewhat more favourable the change in the indexes is almost identical. There’s something different this year. Prices as measured by Teranet are “stickier” than before, at least so far. We can conjecture away as to why.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 2

    bird-man Says:
    15

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    bird-man Says:
    16

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Yellow Helicopter Says:
    17

    Agree with Jesse; prices are sticking, but I’m starting to wonder how much longer for:

    Courtesy of poster Patiently Waiting on Garth’s blog:

    “Sales of single family homes (combined Vancouver & Fraser Valley Real Estate Boards) for the last 30 day period are down 58% from 2012, down 66% from 2011, down 64% from 2010, and even down 54% from 2009 following the financial crisis …

    2013 886
    2012 2114
    2011 2651
    2010 2440
    2009 1934

    ———————————————————–

    Sales in former HAM heaven White Rock are even worse … down 53% from 2012, down a wopping 80% from 2011, down 65% from 2010, and even down 48% from 2009 …

    2013 53
    2012 113
    2011 270
    2010 152
    2009 102

    ————————————————————–

    pw”

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 40 Thumb down 2

    Many Franks Says:
    18

    Paraphrased from Canada’s housing market drawing the big-money crowd:

    Sotheby’s International Realty is seeing a surge in demand from wealthy Syrians, Egyptians and Europeans looking for a safe and relatively stable place to park their millions, but you won’t be able to verify any of that in the MLS statistics because, uh, privacy, noted Sotheby’s Canada CEO Ross McCredie.

    “What I’m insinuating is that there are very wealthy high-net worth individuals who see the Canadian real estate market as undervalued, in spite of pretty much any form of analysis,” added McCredie, suggesting that the wealthy are unaware of much more affordable cities like Paris (a municipality in continental Europe) or New York (a port city in North America’s second-largest country).

    Wealthy Canadians, of course, remain the dominant players in this niche market, totally upending McCredie’s weirdly unbalanced statements which he attempted to half-heartedly justify with a survey of his own agents.

    Just six weeks ago, Sotheby’s recorded a record $4 million sale — the highest price ever paid for a semi-detached house in Toronto. The buyer was local, leading one to wonder why McCredie supplied it as an example in an article discussing mysterious foreign wealth.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    19

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    suomynonA Says:
    20

    @13 Mac: Is this the graph you’re looking for?

    http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Crash-Curve-Graph?pid=389#pid389

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Dumbest time in 31 years to buy RE Says:
    21

    ” Canada’s housing market drawing the big money crowd ”

    But without verification…LOL.
    What a frigging joke!

    The IMF has just downgraded Canada’s economic forecast to perform the absolute worst of the G8. So why would financially mamed and bloodied Europeans want to invest in a place that is just starting to tank when they can sift through the ashes for bargains in any number of post crash countries in their own back yard.

    But wait. Syrians and Egyptians will bail us out.
    That’s even more ludicrous. They’re far too busy killing each other in the name of Allah.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 6

    chilled chilled Says:
    22

    There’s a rational explanation for Whistler, doncha’know; the condos were made of gold!! (Or so it seemed, pre-Olympics)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    23

    ” Canada’s housing market drawing the big money crowd ”

    Yep, nothing keeps the wealthy, wealthy, like the purchase of declining value assets.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 2

    The Paul Says:
    24

    stats have turned back to shit now that the spring bounce is over.

    some sales were probably pulled forward into march because of the stupid home buyer free money or whatever program. is it possible that some of those sales didn’t make it into the system until early april? whatever, doesn’t matter. it’s all back to shit now.

    looking forward to seeing the sob stories from young people who can’t move out of their shit boxes, old farts who are seeing the potential of their home ownership lottery winnings fade away, and the gambling asian speculators crying in their shark fin soup.

    it’s too bad the NDP will wear this mess. the public are going to need someone to blame, and joe average and johnny gung hei fat choi don’t know any better. oh well.

    i hope the news casts are captured on youtube. i’ll be watching them over, and over again with glee.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 37 Thumb down 5

    Many Franks Says:
    25

    Mark Carney strikes again: Carney warns of quicker rate hike if household debt not tempered

    Right, now that you’re done laughing at the headline:

    Asked if there was a Canadian housing bubble, and whether this could burst, he said: “We see valuations in the housing market as being quite firm and very firm in some markets. We are seeing an adjustment in those prices and we are now seeing household debt levels stabilize, albeit at high levels. But things are moving in the right direction, including on the new build side, on the housing starts side.”

    The governor said it was best if the adjustment took place over a couple of years, and added that business investment and exports would now need to pick up to fill in the gap from housing if overall economic growth were to move higher.

    “Firm” seems like the nicest possible way he can find to say “overvalued”.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 0

    victoria Says:
    26

    The smallest units will be 297 square feet–including the balcony and the price will be $109k.

    I was watching a “finding apartment show” the other day. A young lady was moving from Hong Kong to Australia. The main thing she wanted was space. She said she lived in a tiny apartment in Hong Kong and craved space. I can’t imagine Canadians who are pretty used to larger living conditions going for these condos.

    I lived in a small studio when I first moved to Paris. It drove me nuts but then again it was PARIS and I was never home anyway.

    I don’t think these things will fly.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 2

    painted turtle Says:
    27

    An investor from Europe surely knows that prices in Ireland are extremely low.
    This one for example (250 000 euros):
    http://www.remax-ireland.com/Country-Home-For-Sale-Cork-Cork_90391005-8

    and that you can buy a castle with a pool and lots of land for a million dollars in the sunniest parts of France, where you can find some of the best food and wine of Europe, not to mention proximity to an ocean warm enough to swim…

    and they want us to believe that investors arrive in droves to buy Van’s million $ shacks :)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 2

    chilled chilled Says:
    28

    Many Franks Says:
    April 18th, 2013 at 11:40 am 25

    Mark Carney strikes again: Carney warns of quicker rate hike if household debt not tempered

    Right, now that you’re done laughing at the headline:

    Asked if there was a Canadian housing bubble, and whether this could burst, he said: “We see valuations in the housing market as being quite firm and very firm in some markets. We are seeing an adjustment in those prices and we are now seeing household debt levels stabilize, albeit at high levels. But things are moving in the right direction, including on the new build side, on the housing starts side.”

    The governor said it was best if the adjustment took place over a couple of years, and added that business investment and exports would now need to pick up to fill in the gap from housing if overall economic growth were to move higher.

    “Firm” seems like the nicest possible way he can find to say “overvalued”.

    +++++++++++++

    C’mon, give the poor guy a break. What man would admit to “limp” over “firm”?? I know I wouldn’t.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 2

    @suomynonA

    Yes. Actually the one called mr. housing bubble. And, in fact, it does show that a lot but not all US cities simply went down without M-O-M increases, esp. 2 in a row. So Anonymous2 might be right. Too bad.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Maybe I’ve been out of the loop, but it strikes me as ridiculous that the square footage on those micro condo units to be built in Whalley includes the balcony. Is it standard practice to include the balcony in the square footage of a condo? That would be like including the back yard in the square footage of a single family home. The balcony is outside so it should not be included in the square footage of the condo unit.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 1

    Very Little Gravitas Indeed Says:
    31

    @Anonymous2, @mac, @suomynonA

    http://vancouverpricedrop.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/chartfeb.png

    Have a look at the trajectories of San Francisco and San Diego. Then consider that a lot of sales were pulled forward into April due to HST. I also wonder if higher prices have been facilitated by the tax decrease.

    So I don’t think a couple months increase in a row in spring means no crash. You won’t get your head lopped off in a day like with gold or bitcoin, instead it’ll be a long slow trip through the meat grinder.

    PS: Observer, do you plan on releasing more price drop graphs? I didn’t notice one for March. Thanks!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 3

    Short'em High Says:
    32

    @jesse#14. Re: “Vancouver stickiness”

    Regarding Vancouver vs Victoria, take a look at the highlights section for rate of rent increases [and relative vacancy rates] in the Rental Market Survey:

    https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/productList.cfm?cat=117&lang=en&fr=1366306388975

    Since 2009 an extra rent increase cushion may have been built into Vancouver vs Victoria property carrying costs. If so, the delusional prospect beliefs of a typical risk seeking “rent saver” in Vancouver should persist a bit longer than a similarly motivated market participant in Victoria.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    Yeah, will be adding the March one today or tomorrow

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    34

    “Then consider that a lot of sales were pulled forward into April due to HST. ”

    Surely the HST effect was the other way around? A buyer who completes after the end of the HST would pay less in transaction fees and possibly the purchase price depending on their circumstance.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2

    ex-kitsie Says:
    35

    The balconies are usually considered to be part of the square footage of any apartment. This building standard dates back to a building boom in the 1970’s when permits were given for a building to be finished to a certain square footage (at the time, the buildings in question were almost all in the west-end) but then the builders would tack on balconies which, at the time weren’t included in the footprint of the building. Taxes were levied on allowable square footage so the balconies were considered “freebies”. City councils wanted every tax dollar available so a by-law was passed so that balconies were included as taxable space. That is also about the time that balconies shrunk to meaningless little shelves.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    RE: #24

    “It’s too bad the NDP will wear the mess”

    The mere fact that the Dix crowd is already starting to defend him and shift blame of the coming crash only confirms that the scare has already been planted.

    Heck, I’m considering voting for him just to fan the flames of the crash.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 4

    Very Little Gravitas Indeed Says:
    37

    @34 VDTF: Oops, yeah, I should have wrote “pushed back into April”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    camper Says:
    38

    The balcony is either considered common area or part of your square footage. So is every part of the building. It is either yours -living room, bathroom, etc or everybody’s – hallways, foyer, elevator, etc. Another building may have the balcony as common area, but this is unusual and not desireable because as an example, your strate counsel might want to hang a billboard off your place.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

    @ex-kitsie:

    Wow! Thanks for that detailed history on how balconies came to be included in the square footage of apartments. I had no idea about any of that.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    Re: #26

    “Heck, I’m considering voting for the poor dork”

    Lost my head there for a minute.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 7

    ex-Kitsie,

    Meaningless? No way. They’re the one of the main ways that water seeps in behind the walls and rots the envelope.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    I hear there’s lineups to see Ben. Just got a text. Will hear how it went but I wonder if the crowd there is super bought-in to the housing and investor-led condo market.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    SnapCracklePop Says:
    43

    @camper – to the extent it matters, in addition to private and common property, I think there’s a third category of “limited common” property or area. There is where balconies and spaces like parking spots usually fit in (and even basements sometimes – as I noted once in the floor plan of a North Van townhouse!)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    44

    “The mere fact that the Dix crowd is already starting to defend him and shift blame of the coming crash”

    Where did you get that from? For obvious reasons the NDP is loath to admit that there is a bubble in the first place.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 3

    painted turtle Says:
    45

    Has China’s Economy Hit a ‘Dead End’?
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100640805

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    New Listings 239
    Price Changes 102
    Sold Listings 134
    TI:17386

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 98 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    47

    Re: Condo Balconies

    Balconies are never part of the square footage for MLS or other official documents unless they are enclosed balconies. Only presale ‘sales’ literature include outdoor balconies sometimes. Most show both balcony and living area square footage.

    Here is an example of a presale for Concord Pacific:

    http://www.moveuptown.ca/floorplans.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    new (beta) MLS site based on Bing map search.
    otherwise same old, no new info added.
    http://beta.realtor.ca/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    George Soros Says:
    49

    Will there ever be an 18K party or are we cresting?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 5

    Short'em High Says:
    50

    @Anonymous#47. Why are “measurements approximate, subject to buyer verification”?

    The developer’s lawyers are very careful about “approximate” dimensions and long numbers often persist into the rental listings and beyond.

    I’ve measured a few Canadian apartments in my time with both ultrasonic and fiberglass reel tape. Taking away interior room wall thickness by measuring between adjacent suite walls and from window pane to hallway door, every apartment I’ve ever measured comes up short out the window or short into the hallway, take your pick. What gives? Is the interior hallway outside the suite considered part of the suite even after the hallway walls are erected? Another cute trick is small parking spots. If a motorcycle spot is planned but never posted, a compact car spot can be “sold”.

    For more on these abuses see Wendy Mesley’s 2008 piece on youtube:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl6xs4e7mX0

    “…I hope that’s what you get, ‘cuz that’s not what the contract says…”

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 2

    My buddy went to hear Ben speak. He said Montreal is cratering, partly due to the Parti Quebecois… or maybe mostly… Ben thinks we can expect the same thing here once the Dix DetanatorTM goes off here.

    Dix Detonator is a registered trademark of Mac.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 6

    UBC in Crisis Mode Says:
    52

    One question from the audience: what do you think Vancouver’s housing market in 5 years.

    Answer: still down. The recovery of 2009-2010 housing market won’t happen again.

    I think feds can cut interest from 4% to 0.25%, but cannot go from 0.25% to below zero?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 2

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 10

    NDP to blame for house crash? If it fits, why not? :mrgreen:

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 3

    @UBC in Crisis Mode Says:
    55

    can you post more over priced properties that have their price cut? i find those posts to be very informative.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

    UBC in Crisis Mode Says:
    56

    REW.CA, a BC real estate listing web site, is asking people who follow the Lower Mainland real estate market for their opinions on the effects of a possible change in the BC government.

    The question: “How will the result of the BC election affect Lower Mainland real estate?”

    Whispers is collecting comments, and you can post them here:

    http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2013/04/how-will-result-of-bc-election-affect.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Crikey Says:
    58

    @paintedturtle, re “Has China’s Economy Hit a ‘Dead End’?”

    With 7+% growth in China, the short answer to that article’s title is:
    No

    The long answer is:
    Noooooooooooooo

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    59

    Looks like people are not listings in droves…market won’t correct until there are massive job losses or an external shock. interest rates are not going up so only other factors can cause it.

    If the under 35 crowd was smart, which they are not, they wouldnt spend a bulk of their life paying off mortgage debt. Thats what is currently going to happen.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 6

    Total days 21
    Days elapsed so far 13
    Weekends / holidays 5
    Days missing 0
    Days remaining 8
    7 Day Moving Average: Sales 128
    7 Day Moving Average: Listings 279
    SALES
    Sales so far 1553
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1022
    Projected month end total 2575
    NEW LISTINGS
    Listings so far 3837
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 2234
    Projected month end total 6071
    Sell-list so far 40.5%
    Projected month-end sell-list 42.4%
    MONTHS OF INVENTORY
    Inventory as of April 18th, 2013 17386
    MoI at this sales pace 6.75

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    61

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Groundhog Says:
    62

    “market won’t correct until there are massive job losses or an external shock”

    Reflexivity

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3

    UBC in Crisis Mode Says:
    63

    If you want to keep track of the million dollar price drops in Lower Mainland, bookmark this page:

    http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    Joe Mainlander Says:
    64

    City of Van counts 50% of balcony as part of a buildings floor space when determining allowable floor space for proposed buildings. Hence the ‘enclosed balcony’. The developer only needs to count 50% of this by calling it a ‘balcony’ even though it’s really like an interior room. This policy can vary by municipality. Assessment for tax purposes may be different, as Camper posted.

    Usually, under title, outdoor balconies and patios are considered ‘limited common property’ which means that it is limited to your use, but is common property. This is so the strata corp can still control it and not allow you do do whatever you want with it, like enclose it or change the railing style, etc.

    But, for sales purposes, hey, it seems you can count it as whatever you can get away with.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    65

    mac: “My buddy went to hear Ben speak. He said Montreal is cratering, partly due to the Parti Quebecois…”

    Montreal cratering? But CBC just said on the Lang & O Exchange tonight wealthy Chinese and Mexicans are buying up all the high end homes in Montreal. That is what Sotheby’s told them and they reported it as fact so it must be true.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    66

    >Reflexivity

    lol. another example of a bear who knows just enough to be dangerous… to himself.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 8

    If you live in one of those ultra-small condos then the point is not to stay indoors but to get out there as much as possible to enjoy the Whalley amenities and street life.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0

    @UBC in Crisis Mode Says:
    68

    i was being sarcastic. overpriced properties having their prices cut don’t tell us fuck all. it’s as useful as knowing about an under-priced property that goes over ask.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    69

    Joe Mainlander “City of Van counts 50% of balcony as part of a buildings floor space when determining allowable floor space for proposed buildings.”

    No that is not correct. They allow a certain size of balcony which is % of total sq ft of the strata unit. If you don’t use the balcony space then you build a smaller place. That is why they enclose the balconies because it allows them to have a larger indoor space in the development. If enclosed balconies only counted as 50% of a buildings floor space the developers would make the whole strata unit an enclosed balcony.

    That is different from selling a place and advertising the square footage. In that case enclosed balconies count in square footage but outdoor ones do not. Two different topics.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    70

    Not sure how not overleveraging myself in RE is considered dangerous. I consider it prudent. I know far more then enough to understand the risks involved in Vancouver real estate at this point in time. Whether those risks materialize is still yet to be seen, nevertheless they are risks I am not willing to take.

    Do you understand the properties of risk, bullbullbull?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 3

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    71

    >Do you understand the properties of risk, bullbullbull?

    i’d like to hear what you think the properties of risk are. please enlighten me. what are risk’s properties.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 2 Thumb down 9

    Anonymous Says:
    72

    Short’em High Says: Why are “measurements approximate, subject to buyer verification”?

    Umm because the realtor is too lazy to take proper measurements and does not want to get sued?

    Hey how is that short on gold doing you put on 2 days ago at the bottom. Maybe you should change your handle to ‘Short’em Low’. If you wanted to short gold high you would have put the short on over a year ago.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 4

    Groundhog Says:
    73

    “i’d like to hear what you think the properties of risk are. please enlighten me. what are risk’s properties”

    Not happening tonight.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 3

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