Elections, Economy and Condo Prices

Allright, Let’s talk about the election.

You know you want to.

So who’s going to win, the good guys or the bad guys?

What does the future economy of BC look like in your crystal ball?

You might as well use this thread to convince people to vote for your team, what kind of leadership do we really need right now and do you think we’ll get it?

And to keep it on the topic of this site how much of a factor does the housing market play in your voting day decision?

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Anybody have any stats for the FV?


A quick look at the 5 year “renewal gap” (I have carried on this from what VHB was doing all those years ago) shows there is a huge 5 year IRD for the rest of the year.


High MOI is usually associated with price drops and I’m not hearing much of significant upwards spring price bounces like we’ve seen in past years. The most recent Teranet HPI came in stronger than I was expecting. It could be interest rates are making prices a bit “stickier” than they have been in the past. I’m half wondering if 2014, with a markedly lower renewal IRD, will breed a different dynamic.


“$1200+/ft good luck to them! I don’t see this getting built.”

Well, the good news is they made more land to put the building on. But not waterfront, we know the olympic village got the last waterfront development.

UBC in Crisis Mode

Global TV has this piece that a Calgary developer has a good plan to control the city council in the next election:



“He’s a university graduate in history and political science who couldn’t make ends meet in his field in Vancouver.”

I’m not sure that counts as a “field” and I doubt the demand for political historians is any higher in Saskatchewan. I


Looks like we returned to the late 90’s sales level. Next a return to the same government. Followed by a return to the same inventory levels, interprovincial migration levels and construction levels. And finally inflation adjusted price levels. It’s dejavu all over again.

Short'em High

Which REBGV years/months exceeded 18K units of inventory, you may ask?

year month inv
2008 2008-06-30 19342
2012 2012-06-30 18493

Above 18K there were only two. Only two years with comparable inventory in any month, that is. There are no months beyond 17564 units in 2010, and above 18493 units, there is only 2008 for comparison.

year month inv
2008 2008-09-30 20173

Beyond 20173 units, 2013 will be an inventory record for any month in more than a decade.


MoI projection back up over 7. I bet that’s the last 6-handle we see until next March…

Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 15
Weekends / holidays 7
Days missing 0
Days remaining 6
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 121
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 269
Sales so far 1762
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 728
Projected month end total 2490
Listings so far 4341
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1612
Projected month end total 5953
Sell-list so far 40.6%
Projected month-end sell-list 41.8%
Inventory as of April 22nd, 2013 17548
MoI at this sales pace 7.05


Democrass I am seeing, and it’s anecdotal, much of what you are seeing out there. Priced sharp, sells. No surprise there. Those listings are still very much in the minority IMHO. Of the product I’ve been watching over the years, the stale stuff that gets listed every year, year after year, at 10% above market, half of that stuff isn’t even on sale right now. There’s a new batch of hopefuls putting their wares on the table for assessment or a bit above. And if they reduce, it’s by a pittance. It’s a bit frustrating but that listing we saw this weekend was really nice and over 100K below assessment according to the agent. Too bad s/he didn’t list it next year for our sake but the owner left years ago to work in the US. I think s/he missed… Read more »

An Observer

Reasonably good chance we’ll hit 18K on April 30th. Need about +75/day in inventory and last week was +80/day.

We hit 18K on May 10th last year for comparison


Patriotz Says

“I have moved to Ontario. Guess you missed my post on this.”

No, just poor short term memory retention on my part.

I can’t decide, so I’ll give you my vote. Who we taking?


bon jovi

from article:
“Aaron Lind is part of this new wave of people leaving the province. He’s a university graduate in history and political science who couldn’t make ends meet in his field in Vancouver.

“I’m moving to Saskatchewan, because that’s where I’m from. I have a great network there. I can live for free with my parents, eat some humble pie and save some money. That’s the game plan,” Lind told the Reality Check team.”

he-he.. that is exactly what i did 4 years ago. I could not support my family in that bloody city. Just no decent jobs.

Short'em High

“Kaput”. What a great word for BC. “Moody’s … notes for the B.C. Liberals latest budget to be balanced, the government must sell nearly half a billion dollars in assets like parking lots and old schools. Disposing of surplus properties, often with associated operating costs, would appear to make sense, however, these one-time sales cannot be relied on to resolve structural budget imbalances,” source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/story/2013/04/22/bc-reality-check-clark-moodys.html So it doesn’t matter who gets elected. The money tree of BC provincial debt has yielded its last crop. Whoever gets it next will chop down that tree for firewood to keep the economy going. Going forward this means stubbornly higher unemployment because of higher taxes, less spending, or both. High unemployment means jobs and tenants move away to find work and/or lower rents no matter who is in power. source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/story/2013/04/19/bc-reality-check-outmigration.html Provincial employees dependent… Read more »


Very bearish statistics.

I look at listings every day in Vancouver West, East and North Burnaby. Nothing is moving unless it is priced around 10% below 2012 assessed value. If it is priced like that, it generally sells very fast, in about a week or two.

I’ve seen beautifully renovated houses in east van listed at the price of older dumps on smaller lots. This is the kind of price disparity you see in a particular neighborhood.

I guess the owner of the dump doesn’t need to sell but the owner of the reno does. My impression is that aggressively priced houses are only about 5% or less of total listings.

Many of the houses that I have been looking at that have been listed for around 4-5 months are seeing small prices reductions of about 2.5%.




New Listings 273
Price Changes 142
Sold Listings 84



@ziggy, trouble Germany has is they punish business risk taking. In the U.S. and Canada a business bankruptcy means you now have a mini MBA and can dive in and start another business based on what you learned. In Germany you are done. Kaput. The flip side is there are fewer spectacular large business failures, although not zero. Fraud still manages to mess investors up.


So true Boombust… It’s become cliche. We need bold new ideas, secondary manufacturing and basic science research. Funding for small business needs to be more accessible. It’s nearly impossible for on going, viable small businesses doing less than 20 million in sales to secure capital to expand. Germany is a good case study of what we could be. Germany is a country full of successful small businesses. Their education system produces great scientists, engineers and trades people. They spend more on basic science research than the USA or roughly 4X more per capita. Without an abundance of natural resources, they’re dependent on high quality manufacturing and the technologies of tomorrow to maintain their quality of life. Anti speculation laws prevent credit bubbles and consumer debt is amongst the lowest in the developed world. Honest jobs, honest living. In Canada we… Read more »

For the record

Re: post #35

“What a coincidence that Global proposed a debate format to Crusty’s liking”

Guess I should have excpected this kind of response, even if I thought that Global was leaning to the left with all the commentary from Keith Bawldry.

Anyway, I cant really see how Global could create a format to anyone’s liking when both debaters would have an opportunity to be heard.


A rational party would step back and let one of their opponents take this economic fall on their watch.


Calgary global report that countries social fabric is corrupt to the core.


patriotz said: “I moved to Ontario”

Unfortunately, we’re still stuck with your misirable spirit.

Anybody ever hear patz agree with anything or compliment anyone?

They must really love you over there, unless your misery is confined to blogging where you don’t need to go face to face with anyone.

Get a life!


“Diversify the economy…”

When haven’t I heard THAT before?


“EXCLUSIVE: Video obtained by Global News reveals Calgary developer’s plan to control city council”: http://bit.ly/XS54q0

I find two things very interesting:

1) Calgary’s developers don’t already control Calgary’s city council the way they do here.
2) Calgary’s developers don’t already control Calgary’s Global News the way they do here.