FFFA! Inspections, Inventory, Data & The Bear Show

Hey, you made it to the end of another work week! Lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread, here are a few links to kick off the chat:

-Don’t trust the realtors inspector?
-Old inventory hits the roof
-Inventory hits highest level in decade
-Man loses $745000 condo deposit
-It’s a dogs market in Vancouver
-So far so good for soft landing
-or not
-Ah, historical data
-Are you going to the show?
-

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

157 Responses to “FFFA! Inspections, Inventory, Data & The Bear Show”

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    Amanda Li Says:
    1

    The Sun is going to rise in the west tomorrow.
    The VCI bears are quiet, even though its past 6 a.m.
    Price of gold and other PMS is plunging.
    Stock market bubble is about to burst.
    The global debt is huge.
    Japan is pumping $81 billion a month. No effect.
    USA is pumping $85 billion a month. No effect.
    Ditto for EU
    The world is coming to an end.
    Meaningless to buy a home at this point in time.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 29 Thumb down 19

    Amanda Li Says:
    2

    Slovenia can’t sell bonds.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 8

    Anonymous Says:
    3

    Amazed how much effort trolls put into writing here. Microcosm for Vancouver- not enough else to do but be unproductive.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 7

    A tattoo parlour that has been on Scott Road in Delta for 18 years is going to have its annual business licence fee increase from $97 to $3525. That’s a 3634% increase!!! The reason is Delta wants to revitalize the Scott Road strip and doesn’t want so many tattoo shops and cheque cashing places. Without those, the only other businesses cater to the Indian community. I guess the whole strip is going to go Indian now.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/04/11/bc-scott-road-business-ban.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 9

    Gail Whiteperson Says:
    5

    that’s horrible. tattoo shops and money mart are an essential part of caucasian culture. it sucks that they are being pushed out for indian busienss. ’5 bucks on a hun’ is as canadian as the ‘double double’.

    what has this country come to?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 55 Thumb down 14

    Anonymous Says:
    6

    Conservatives dropping in the Polls. Liberals ahead of them now.

    Spread the the truth about these big business scumbags;

    1) Telecom collusion
    2) domestic open skies policy.
    3) dairy not poultry cartel
    4) big oil
    5) cmhc
    6) big banks that run our country
    7) Temp Foreign Workers – just have permanent foreign workers.
    8) media concentration

    Feel free to add…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 15

    Anonymous Says:
    7

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 18 Thumb down 26

    Short'em High Says:
    8

    @VHB. What was your month end sales estimate based on yesterday’s @paulb number?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    9

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 17

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 10

    Makaya Makaya Says:
    11

    Hey guys, keep it civilized. It’s Friday today :)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1

    suomynonA Says:
    12

    Troll day falls on a friday this week? :D

    Now imagine, if you guys put half as much effort into getting your clients to lower their price maybe you could get that house sold, collect your commission cheque and move on.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 48 Thumb down 1

    Very Little Gravitas Indeed Says:
    13

    The trolling seems to have gotten more aggressive since the bitcoin crash. I wonder how many had their dreams of getting out from under their debts crushed?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 4

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 29

    /dev/null Says:
    15

    #14 – Disappointed to see that you dragged “Dave” out of the sockpuppet box, Mr. “Haven’t posted in a while”.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 7

    Groundhog Says:
    16

    @14 I’m just hoping things continue as they do this spring. Come summer/fall I expect more price drops. My plan is to start looking late 2014, early 2015.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 3

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 25

    @Dave: You’re talking to the guy who still has a perfect track record here at VCI.
    Could you please refresh our memories about what your track record is?

    You should feel privileged that I have returned to drop knowledge.
    We do. Please share more of your knowledge to us. I’m really craving for it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 3

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 24

    bird-man Says:
    20

    China reports 1 new bird flu death, 2 new infections, bringing total deaths to 11

    Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/china-reports-1-new-bird-flu-death-2-new-infections-bringing-total-deaths-to-11-1.1235051#ixzz2QH2UKrDo

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 4 Thumb down 10

    Anonymous Says:
    21

    @ Dave 19

    So where do we go from here?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 4

    southseacompany Says:
    22

    “It’s a problem when Vancouver condos sell, but the lights stay off” Globe and Mail, 12apr13.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/its-a-problem-when-vancouver-condos-sell-but-the-lights-stay-off/article11147711/

    “They’re pushing up property prices by using Vancouver real estate to store their money as if it were one giant “safety deposit box,” to quote one of the panelists.”

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 3

    Goldmember Says:
    23

    Hello deflation! Got gold? Got Van House?? ;)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 9

    Anonymous Says:
    24

    were sales really 30% higher last month compared to the month before?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjlBQTqp878&feature=youtube_gdata_player

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

    Remember “The Met”, one of the presale condos by metrotown that had the customary line-up and tents?
    An ad appeared on several Chinese RE portals yesterday:

    “Seeking transfer of presale contract in The Met. 5th floor, 1BR+Den, 703sf.
    At original price of $327,900. Paid 10% deposit already. Another 7% due Apr 18, 2013. Another 3% due Jan 31, 2015. Completion Fall 2015.”

    - LOL, can’t pay the 7% due in 6 days?

    Via google translate

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 3

    Short'em High Says:
    26

    Further to 17k inventory, let’s recap. Based on the BCREA monthly stats as recorded by @jesse, there are three years since 2005 which have at least one month with inventory in excess of 17,000. Those years are listed below.

    year month inv
    2008 2008-05-31 17512
    2010 2010-05-31 17500
    2012 2012-05-31 17835

    Since the supply conditions of those particular years might be similar to 2013 going forward, I have simulated the sales of those years and plotted the results along with every other year since 1999 and seasonally adjusted to 2013. The link to that graphic is below.

    http://postimg.org/image/cmpsy4zav/

    There is a note about April 2013 regarding anticipated peak sales rate. The April sales rate was calculated using @VHB’s total sales estimator for April 2013. @VHB estimates there will be 2572 sales for the 30 days of April 2013. Unfortunately, this number is not directly comparable to REBGV sales since REBGV doesn’t include land/lot transactions. One more step is needed, so I worked out a reasonable conversion formula.

    Using the past 3 months of REBGV vs @VHB sales an empirical linear conversion formula was estimated. People are welcome to check the result, use different fitting function, or even more months of data. Here is the data and equation I used:

    sales @VHB REBGV
    Mar 2395 2347
    Feb 1838 1797
    Jan 1368 1351

    This gives a linear conversion equation of REBGV SALES = 0.97*(@VHB SALES)+20
    Using this formula on @VHB’s most recent April sales estimate gives:

    0.97*2572+20 = 2515.

    Thus, I used 2515/30days as the April 2013 REBGV sales rate in the above graphic and also assumed April will be the peak sales rate month – as it was in 2012, 2010, and 2008. Either or both of these assumptions could be wrong and a new chart will have to be generated in that event. These assumptions are reasonable today though.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 3

    suomynonA Says:
    27

    Hey Dave, I can’t remember what your prediction / forecast was last year. I remember some people asked you if it was a good time to buy property as an investment for the short term. Did you forecast prices at this point to be up or down from then?

    I guess since you have a ‘perfect track record’ you must have said the prices would be down, but I also seem to remember you just answering with a squishy kind of non-answer, do I have that wrong?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3

    That tattoo comment was the best ever.

    All White Delta council

    Mayor Lois E. Jackson
    Councillor Sylvia Bishop
    Councillor Robert Campbell
    Councillor Scott Hamilton
    Councillor Jeannie Kanakos
    Councillor Bruce McDonald
    Councillor Ian L. Paton

    Wants to break up that back-bone of Canadian culture tattoo parlours and check scamming to make it Indian.

    I assume posted in jest or I hope that’s what the 13 members who green thumbed thought or there are more paranoid lunatics

    Seen how many tattoos the East Indian and Chinese gangs have btw- almost as much as the Angels!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 10

    HAM Solo Says:
    29

    To long-suffering VCI crowd,

    It is tough watching for years idiots playing with fire in this silly market. However, bubbles do pop. And April is often the month we see this happen. Bye bye bitcoins, can million dollar teardowns be far behind?

    http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-winklevoss-twins-bitcoin-20130412,0,2585829.story

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 4

    Next Year Says:
    30

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 12

    Anonymous Says:
    31

    Haha. Actually, you might recall prices on million dollar tear downs plummeted sharply until interest rates were cranked to record lows and the cmhc pumped unprecedented amounts of money into backing mortgages.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    The comment on the tattoo parlours was not in jest. I think it is unfair to raise business licences by over 3000%. It’s a business that was there for 18 years. In the current economic climate, I don’t think municipalities should be trying to run successful businesses out of town.

    The Indian part was a secondary point to my main point. If you take a ride down Scott Road, you will see that the majority of businesses in the north section of Scott Road have signage in Punjabi. The tattoo parlours and cheque cashing places are some of the only businesses that have English-only signs. If the tattoo parlour is run out of town, I would bet money that whatever business moves in that spot will cater to the Indian community and will have signage in Punjabi. So it will further that transformation of the street into a Little India. I am not saying this is an anti-white racist conspiracy on the part of city council (although it appears to be overtly classist). I am saying that perhaps an unintended side effect of the policy will be more businesses that cater to the Indian community. Racial tensions between whites and browns in that area are quite high right now.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 12

    Anonymous Says:
    33

    Gold broke key support of $1550. Didn’t think I’d be saying this, but it has lot’s of room to fall.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 6

    Anonymous Says:
    34

    Just when you thought that things were going in the toilet, the Vancouver Sun, that bastion of journalistic integrity, posts an article today claiming “Vancouver housing prices stabilizing”.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+housing+prices+stabilizing/8233062/story.html

    Great it’s all good! Let’s go for beers.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 2

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    35

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    36

    “Gold broke key support of $1550. Didn’t think I’d be saying this, but it has lot’s of room to fall.”

    Gold always has room to fall – all the way to zero – because it’s only worth what people say it’s worth.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 23 Thumb down 14

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 11

    Goldfinger trade: loves only gold, expects bond to die

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 2

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Anonymous1 Says:
    40

    Q Post 32:

    “Racial tensions between whites and browns in that area are quite high right now.”

    Give it 10-20 years. No racial tensions will exist by then. That area will be 80% Indian. Why are you so worried?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 9

    Inventory hits highest level in a decade? I think I know how the agents and bulls on this site will spin it:

    I know you are but what am I?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    party on Says:
    42

    17K today

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    43

    @Vote Down The Facts

    I think Patriotz is going to correct you on that one….it’s a commodity that actually does cost $$ to extract and refine….

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 4

    Dumbest time in 31 tears to buy RE Says:
    44

    Must be a strange day when my favorate comment so far is post #7.
    Nor has Dave’s return helped to cheer up a grumpy crowd. Probably the weather and an ugly day for commodities…RE is next!
    Sure hope Paulb will cheer us up.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    45

    bought more gold stocks today

    in the deep discount bin

    more energy stocks too

    who knows

    vancouver RE is much easier to predict – DOWN we go

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 2

    Waiting to exhale Says:
    46

    I was driving home from work and I was listening to the Team 1040 and they were promoting a new development in Abbotsford saying it is the largest real estate development in Abbotsford and it’s called “Central Park Village.” Afterwards Don Taylor comes on and says ” I hear it is a lot like New York.”

    I almost drove off the road after that statement.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 0

    New Listings 235
    Price Changes 117
    Sold Listings 120
    TI:17043

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 115 Thumb down 0

    oneangryslav2 Says:
    48

    Knowing Don’s personality, I’ll bet he said that with a chuckle in his voice. He’s a smart guy but he knows who ultimately pays him.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3

    Total days 21
    Days elapsed so far 9
    Weekends / holidays 3
    Days missing 0
    Days remaining 12
    7 Day Moving Average: Sales 127
    7 Day Moving Average: Listings 287
    SALES
    Sales so far 1034
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1522
    Projected month end total 2556
    NEW LISTINGS
    Listings so far 2676
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 3446
    Projected month end total 6122
    Sell-list so far 38.6%
    Projected month-end sell-list 41.7%
    MONTHS OF INVENTORY
    Inventory as of April 12th, 2013 17043
    MoI at this sales pace 6.67

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 46 Thumb down 0

    17,043!

    Thanks Paul. Onward and upward.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 2

    YLTNboomerang Says:
    51

    How long to 18K party?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 1

    Goldmember Says:
    52

    I decided to add to my energy and gold shorts today RJ, but maybe we’re getting closer to the flush point. My guess is June/July timing-wise.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 4

    George Soros Says:
    53

    I added Barrick to my portfolio today. I think we could be close to the “puke point” on large cap gold producers.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

    I don’t understand the case for gold stocks. The cost of production and falling prices is killing them. It’s easy to make a profit when the price of your product is rising faster than your costs.

    BTW, despite being voted into oblivion, there actually has been a huge correlation between the price of gold and Vancouver real estate. Look at the charts. And there is a long term correlation between the price of gold and Canada’s economic performance relative to the US.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 11

    replying to post 54

    can you elaborate about the correlation between real estate and gold?

    thanks

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    56

    “can you elaborate about the correlation between real estate and gold?”

    They both have been in a bull market for 12 years up until last year. Both have been bearish for the past year. That does not mean the next 12 years will look the same.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    57

    “I don’t understand the case for gold stocks. The cost of production and falling prices is killing them. It’s easy to make a profit when the price of your product is rising faster than your costs.”

    If you held the senior gold stocks after the great depression in the 30s you made a killing (around 700% over a few years). They moved opposite the general stock market. Why? The price of gold was set by the US gov (did not rise) but the cost of production for the minors was falling. Cheaper energy, labour, equipment costs, etc. due to the depression. The question is are we going to see those same conditions going forward? It is only the printing pressess that are keeping things a float. On the other hand the printing presses are keeping the price of gold up too. Keep in mind gold it is still up 500% since 2000 compared to a flat S&P 500.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2

    Short'em High Says:
    58

    #51. @paulb inventory growth.

    2013-03-11 16003
    2013-04-12 17043

    That was 32 days. So, it wouldn’t be going out on a limb to predict 1000 growth per 30 days assuming a replay of listing rate, sales rate, and flat or declining prices. On one hand, listings are higher in the past few days and sales rate may have peaked too, so inventory growth may accelerate. On the other hand, if prices or sales by some miracle jump higher things could turn around.

    Regarding delistings, as I explained to @patriotz regarding the delisting rate, it is not reasonable to believe that most sellers listing in a price stable or price declining market have the luxury of delisting. The main reason to be skeptical of discrectinary delisting is that financial obligations of a property cannot be transferred by delisting. Selling the property is the only way a seller can transfer their financial obligations.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    59

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    60

    Gold and gold stocks may continue to decline. If so I will buy more. I am thinking the latest sell off helps Goldman Sachs and wealthy buy more. Physical demand is hot. The great unwashed and levered are being stripped of their positions IMHO. I think the end game is much higher.

    We’ll see, in time. Good luck all.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 3

    Amanda Li Says:
    61

    My gut feeling is that on monday gold will jump $50.00 per oz.
    After the huge drop today, we will see a dead cat bounce.
    After that we will be inundated with news about improved technology
    in sea bed harvesting for pure gold ingots and nodules. Also watch
    for news on new gold finds. Oh, forgot mining the asteroids for
    precious metals and rare earth metals. The powers to be don’t want alternative to the fiat currency. PMs, such as gold, silver, platinum,
    palladium are finished as a means of wealth storage.
    What are we left with for wealth storage? REAL ESTATE.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 10

    Real estate is a terrible store of wealth when the powers that be decide they need tax revenue.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    #57 Gold is a terrible investment because it doesn’t generate income. And if you’re concerned about the government or the banking system, just know that they can tax it or confiscate it or throw you in jail for having it. So it’s not even good insurance.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    65

    “I think Patriotz is going to correct you on that one….it’s a commodity that actually does cost $$ to extract and refine….”

    Patriotz would likely agree with me. Gold has almost no utility to justify its price, and its cost of production has nothing to do with its fubdamental value.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 4

    Also, I forgot to add, the price of gold (set by the US government) did rise, from $20 to $35, after they banned people from owning it and threatened them with 10 years in jail or the equivalent of a $100,000 fine – in the middle of the depression mind you. The miners were highly profitable because they were mining gold FOR the US government with high margins built-in.

    Of course, things were handled differently back then. Speculators, businesses, and households were forcefully liquidated in the great crash of 1929-32. This time they have attempted to reinflate, even in countries *ahem* where that policy was highly inappropriate.

    In the worst scenario imaginable, we crash again and having already done everything they can and being under threat themselves, governments and central banks capitulate.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 4

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    67

    And there is a long term correlation between the price of gold and Canada’s economic performance relative to the US”

    Maybe because its quoted price is in US$ ?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    Groundhog Says:
    68

    “Patriotz would likely agree with me. Gold has almost no utility to justify its price, and its cost of production has nothing to do with its”

    Gold is a currency

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3

    southseacompany Says:
    69

    From Global News Okanagan; “Real estate sales slump”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDedTSkNo60

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    Short'em High Says:
    70

    #61. RE as wealth storage.

    What percentage of RE do you estimate is held with 100% equity in Vancouver or Canada in general? I’d like to read any facts or theories which might estimate a current figure.

    Among homeowners, 57% made a mortgage payment in 2008 and the remaining 43% were mortgage-free.

    source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-x/2011002/article/11429-eng.htm

    Also, regarding gold etc. I don’t recommend physical gold or any other illiquid allocation. But one thing gold bugs do have going for them is that unlike the RE market, their peers cannot create long term positions in gold or precious metals in excess of liquid net worth. There’s no gold investor version of the Canada Housing Act to artificially backstop personal gold investment loans with taxpayer obligations.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    71

    “Gold is a currency”

    No it’s not, you can’t buy bread and butter with it. Gold is pure speculation, like tulip bulbs or bitcoins.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 17

    Gold is money, dollar is a fiat currency, soon you will be able to buy a house in Vancouver for a billion dollars or just one gold ounce

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 10

    Today was a key signal for Van RE. People underestimate the signal gold & other commodities sent today by breaking year+ support levels and entering bear market. For starters, consider that Van is metal mining HQ and recall what a breakdown signals as far as inflation. Don’t be fooled as gold now flails around old support. Gold and RE have entered a long bear market.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 6

    So what will happen to Vancouver housing market if NDP wins?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous1 Says:
    75

    WOW!

    5 year Bond Yield at 1.19%. Wow!

    I think we may see 5 year mortgages at < 2.5% very soon.

    People will finance in droves if that happens. Looks like the ship may not go down after all. The low end may even see a boom!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 4 Thumb down 8

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    76

    “I think Patriotz is going to correct you on that one….it’s a commodity that actually does cost $$ to extract and refine….”

    That has nothing to do with what it (or anything else) is “worth”. As Warren Buffett puts it:

    “[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

    I don’t like to use the term “worth” because people use it to mean either price or utility which are different things.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    real_professional Says:
    77

    Yes gold is useless. But it is an element and thus can’t be made, only mined out of the ground.

    It has always been used as a currency so think of it as a currency. Like the EURO or the Greenback. That’s it. It is backed by scarcity not utility. The Greenback is backed by the US government and thus the vibrancy of the US economy which is a rich tapestry interwoven with the impact of their monetary and fiscal policy. At one point it too was backed by Gold’s scarcity.

    Personally I believe that diamonds are more useless. They are difficult to divide, can be damaged, differ greatly in quality and other value enhancing qualities. And yet people throw tons of money at them and wear them around due to carefully crafted Hollywood product placement. Unless, unless of course you need them for diamond drilling then they are great!! But those can be poorly colored and otherwise ugly and still work well.

    Everyone thinks we are going into some type of Gold multi year bear. I don’t think so. The Gold bull market of the last decade just reversed the Gold bear market of the last half of the 90s. One unit of the S&P 500 may only purchase on average one ounce of gold and range between 0.75 to 1.25 ounces. This is a wide range but it could just dance around here and be available for trading.

    That’s the camp I’m in.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    78

    We are already into a multi year bear for gold. It peaked in 2011.

    Looks like the gold bug consensus is that this is the bottom. As always with gold, I don’t have a clue.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 3

    real_professional Says:
    79

    By bull and bear – I mean Gold vs. Stocks

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    real_professional Says:
    80

    Yeah, peaking and Bull and Bear are two different things. I don’t subscribe to a definition of bull and bear markets of 20% change in dollars over a period – I draw a trend line over long term monthly data and just look at the slope vs other core asset classes. If the trend is up, bullish, if the trend is down, bearish.

    Interestingly Gold vs stocks are at October 08 levels now.

    One thing I am certain on, the price of Gold will be different in the future, and maybe up or down!! Try to argue that statement people.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    bon jovi Says:
    81

    rp1: “And if you’re concerned about the government or the banking system, just know that they can tax it or confiscate it or throw you in jail for having it.”

    but how come the EU government just 2 weeks ago confiscated legitimate fiat cash in the bank from the depositors and did not touch gold?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 3

    CanuckDownUnder Says:
    82

    The idea that the US government ever set the price of gold is arsy-versy. Under the gold standard the US Dollar was equal to 23.22 grains of gold, or $20.67/oz, so the exchange value of gold determined the purchasing power of the Dollar (indeed all currencies backed by bullion, when the Province of Canada decided to decimalise in the 1850s they just defined the Canadian Dollar equal to the US Dollar).

    In times of crisis governments were unable to control the value of their currencies and banknotes would trade at a discount to physical metal. For example, during the American Civil War the US government issued non-convertible “greenbacks” and in July 1864 the US Dollar hit an all-time low against the CAD, trading at $1.00CAD=$2.78USD.

    When the Fed was created and given control of the money supply they flooded the economy with so many Dollars they were no longer able to redeem them for bullion. In true US liberty-loving style the government simply made it illegal to own gold using an old Trading With the Enemy Act from WWI and the the currency was devalued to $35/oz for international transactions. Nice gig if you can get it. Speaking of which, what do Buffett’s Martians have to say about the wisdom of granting the monopoly provision of the most important commodity in an exchange economy to a private banking cartel who can just produce as much of it they like out of thin air?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

    Groundhog Says:
    83

    “Gold is pure speculation, like tulip bulbs or bitcoins.”

    For those that don’t think gold is a currency, I wonder what they think central banks consider it and why it’s so important to them? Obviously don’t pay attention to history and current events.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 2

    I asked my boss to be paid in “real” currency – gold. He laughed so hard he fell out of his chair. He doesn’t get it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 8

    Bra Burner from the 60s Says:
    85

    The War on the Bra:

    A French scientist spent 15 years studying women’s breasts and has concluded that bras do more harm than good:

    “The research found that breasts were firmer and sagged less in the women studied who did not wear a bra and that those women were no more likely than others to suffer from back pain.

    “Medically, physiologically, anatomically — breasts gain no benefit from being denied gravity,” he said.

    Rouillon, a sports scientist who has been researching the subject since 1997, suggested that breasts become “dependent” on lingerie support once women start wearing it, meaning that supporting muscle is underused and degrades more quickly.”

    Meanwhile, the Mountaineering Council of Scotland is warning that bras may be fatal if the wire in them throws off your compass needle when you are in the back country, leading to potentially fatal navigation errors.

    Forgive me for posting something off topic. This article gave me a good laugh.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/Health/Empowered-Health/Bras+help+support+women+breasts+might+even+doing/8233009/story.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 7

    Groundhog Says:
    86

    @Jesse “I asked my boss to be paid in “real” currency – gold. He laughed so hard he fell out of his chair. He doesn’t get it.”

    I assume this was a jab at the gold is currency statement. Ask him again during a period of hyperinflation, war, capital controls, etc and you may receive a different answer. In my or my kids lifetime, I would be pleasantly surprised if one of these events didn’t happen and the ~1% of my wealth held in gold was rendered useless. If it is, it can be passed on to the next generation.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 6

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    88

    “but how come the EU government just 2 weeks ago confiscated legitimate fiat cash in the bank from the depositors and did not touch gold?”

    They didn’t. For starters, banks don’t have cash in them (except for a small amount for retail operations) in the first place. Banks have assets, which are debts owed to the bank aka loans, and liabilities, which are debts the bank owes someone, aka deposits. If the bank makes bad loans its assets fall below its liabilities and becomes insolvent.

    In that case the bank can’t pay back its depositors in full. The EU and the Cyprus governments rightfully decided that uninsured depositors had no claim on the taxpayer. They did not take anything from the banks, in fact they injected equity into them to keep them afloat.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2

    Groundhog Says:
    89

    @Jesse “I asked my boss to be paid in “real” currency – gold. He laughed so hard he fell out of his chair. He doesn’t get it.”

    Forgot to mention too, you would get the same response if you asked to be paid in Kenyan Shillings too, doesnt mean its not a currency

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    chilled chilled Says:
    90

    Bra Burner from the 60s Says:
    April 13th, 2013 at 8:14 am 85

    The War on the Bra:

    A French scientist spent 15 years studying women’s breasts and has concluded that bras do more harm than good:

    “The research found that breasts were firmer and sagged less in the women studied who did not wear a bra and that those women were no more likely than others to suffer from back pain.

    “Medically, physiologically, anatomically — breasts gain no benefit from being denied gravity,” he said.

    Rouillon, a sports scientist who has been researching the subject since 1997, suggested that breasts become “dependent” on lingerie support once women start wearing it, meaning that supporting muscle is underused and degrades more quickly.”

    Meanwhile, the Mountaineering Council of Scotland is warning that bras may be fatal if the wire in them throws off your compass needle when you are in the back country, leading to potentially fatal navigation errors.

    Forgive me for posting something off topic. This article gave me a good laugh.

    +++++++++

    Talk about an awesome job if you could get it!! Especially French women, wow!!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 8

    I have been studing Austruan school of economics for years now. I understand why gold will be remonitized in the near future. I would not recommend anybody from this blog to read Ludwig Von mises, Friedrich Hayek, Murray Rothbbard, because you would be descouraged and would stay ignorante.
    But if you go on YouTube SILVER & GOLD , DEBT COLLAPSE MIKE MALONEY it will change the way you look at money.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 7

    Most people on this blog understand the housing fundamentals very well, but are totall clueless on money fundamentals. Once this housing buble collapses you will need money not wourthless currency to buy a house.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 5

    I look at gold as an alternative currency, but one that you can’t really use all that conveniently, except in a crisis where it becomes essential (banking collapse, war, hyperinflation, other end of the world as we know it scenarios). If you have physical coins it’s outside the banking system, and it gives you options in those extreme situations.
    Some people want to speculate, and that’s their business, but I look at it like insurance. Buy a little, put it away, and hope that you never have to use it.
    The cost of insurance (gold) has been going up for the past decade, at least in part because the risks have been increasing. Long before the crisis in 2008, the risks became apparent, and people started buying the stuff.
    IMHO, the risks of a major event have increased since 2008, rather than decreasing. I don’t know what exactly is going to happen in the next 10-20 years, but if the last 20 are a harbinger of our financial future, I’ll hang onto my gold. I might even buy a little more if the price falls enough. I hope I never need it, but would hate to be without it.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

    omfgitslikegrouponbutforcondosftw Says:
    94

    I thought this history of down payments, amortization rules, etc. on Saskatoon Housing Bubble was very interesting: http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.ca/2013/04/a-look-at-down-payments-amortization.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    95

    “Most people on this blog understand the housing fundamentals ”

    yeah right! history has been proven that they are clueless.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 3 Thumb down 9

    From 1971 to today fiat currency lost lots of purchasing power, $35 – $1500 can you tell me when did we have the crisis. Gold is money not insurance

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 5

    YLTNboomerang Says:
    97

    #58 @Short-em

    One of the tiny sub-areas I monitor is Edgemont village in North Van (I watch Capilano Highlands and Delbrook for what I call Edgemont). I’ve been tracking this area since 2009 and updating my stats each week and today…highest number of listings ever! It has been an odd market to watch though as it used to be all sub $1M then the local builders started tearing everything down and building $2M+ monsters which has now driven the market up where almost nothing is below $1M. The monsters aren’t moving (one is now listed 37% below original ask) and it looks like a desperate attempt to cash in by the original long-term owners. I would buy one of the monsters if they were sub $1M which is all they are worth but who the hell wants 4000+ sqft???

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0

    De La Riva Guard Says:
    98

    @ southseacompany, comment #22:

    Fine article in the G&M for a change. Comments are spot on as well.

    If Sandy Garrossino runs for civic politics again, she’s got my vote!
    She’s a regular panelist on CKNW radio who I’ve always enjoyed listening to. Smart, strongly opinionated and very knowledgeable about local real estate affairs. Tough (but fair, I think) in her pointed commentary aimed at our political leaders who have willingly jammed their heads in the sand while housing prices have blown up. Very concerned about the exodus of talented people who are leaving Van for less expensive parts of N. America. Proverbial burr under Rennie’s saddle whenever she’s on air!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

    @Gold “From 1971 to today fiat currency lost lots of purchasing power, $35 – $1500 can you tell me when did we have the crisis. Gold is money not insurance”

    I’m not exactly sure what you are saying here, but it sounds too simplistic.

    As far as gold being money, as long as you can’t use it to pay your taxes, it’s not money. Money is a system set up by those with assets and the power to set up the rules that manage debts and wealth. Money can be anything, as long as the ruling powers accept it in payment of debt.
    However, gold’s intrinsic properties and its history as money is a powerful force, and in a crisis situation I think it’s going to continue to play a role in the monetary system. That’s just my historical expectation, but not a fact of nature like you seem to indicate.
    Also, the fact that we’ve had inflation since 1971 does not mean gold is money — just a commodity that more or less maintains its purchasing power over extremely long periods of time. If you had bought a ton of nickel in 1971 you would have done just as well …
    Gold is easier to carry though. Hence its utility.

    Sorry to pollute the board with this gold discussion — I’ll leave it alone now. :-)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 3

    Short'em High Says:
    100

    @YLTNboomerang#97.

    Have you any charts of asking price for your sample? You could take the ones that change their price per given time period, by month or quarter, and plot the their new average and median asking price. Some error bars would also be helpful. That graph would be a lot more interesting than those awful median price hamburger mixtures that some realtors cite.

    Re: Gold Bug Harvest

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GCJ13.CMX&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GLD&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

    When this forum diverges into rants with strong feelings one way or another about a tradeable question, it can pay to see if those emotions scale up to the broader population.

    NYMEX electronic trading for gold futures opens around 3pm Vancouver time on Sunday. If gold settles into a narrower price range and then breaks lower, it could pay well in reward to risk terms to go with the departing money while protecting the gain with a trailing exit stop order.

    If the remarks on this forum are indicative, the good thing about a gold short is the potentially large number of participants on the other side who are willing to give up their dollar denominated gold gains for the dream of a future post-apocalyptic world where gold is the only way to settle large financial obligations.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2

    HAM Solo Says:
    101

    Wow, lots of comments on gold. I don’t mind the off-topic diversion. For the record, count me as a long-term bull on gold. I think history is fairly strong on the side of debt crises eventually turning into inflation. That being said, deflationary spirals can last 2 or 3 years. IMHO the stocks are better risk/reward than the metal here.

    Second point. That story about the $750K lost deposit on the $3M condo is absolutely epic. What that must mean is that NO bank would cough up the remaining $2.25M. Thinking that through, obviously CMHC would not insure the loan, and so this guy is being evaluated on his own credit. And I guess Genworth wouldn’t do it either, which tells you something about their current risk appetite, too.

    As a side note, it is possible that the real-time value of said “$3M” condo has now fallen by more than the $750K downpayment, so the banker is maybe questioning whether there is any equity cushion at all.

    Bottom line, this is the story we have been expecting to play out for some time, but it is always amazing to see when it really happens. Falling asset prices are being met by PRO-CYCLICAL lender tightening. Baking soda, meet vinegar.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 3

    I´m surprised that current situation is still resembling the predictions about real estate from 2013. I was expecting harder landing. But are we really landing? Or is it just another scam that wants to convince us that everything is ok. I would love to know the truth.

    On the gold question – I would not buy it. Metals are not good investment. And I don´t think that inflation is what will come after this crisis. I don´t even think we can someday get out of it. It has already been 5 years when it started in US. And now? They still don´t know what to do…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 5

    Buffet Says:
    103

    Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce — gold’s price as I write this — its value would be about $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.

    Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?

    Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers — whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators — must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices.

    A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops — and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil (XOM) will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 6

    Carioca Canuck Says:
    104

    Disclaimer – I do not own gold or silver.

    Having said that, gold and silver have been accepted and used as a store of monetary value, or an outright currency, for, or, 5,000 years or so…………..

    What comes next is utterly devastating to those who say that gold and silver are not money.

    For what you consider to be this thing called “money”, that is, those little pieces of paper, have changed guises and disappeared totally, under different names and in different colors and sizes, more times in the last millennia than anything known to man.

    Yet gold and silver, to this day, are still here……….

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 5

    bon jovi Says:
    105

    Exactly Groundhog. And not only that, you could asked your boss to be paid in suppose “stronger” currency like US dollar instead of perceived funny money like Kenyan Shilling and you would be laughed at.

    @patriotz
    You had 200k euros in the bank on Friday in Cyprus, and on Monday that become 100k and even that you CAN NOT take out. Only 300 euros you can withdraw. What part of the word “confiscation” you don’t understand?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 6

    Anonymous1 Says:
    106

    Why is no one commenting on the 5 year bond yields approaching 1%??

    Currently 1.19%. Flaherty wont do anything now when banks advertise 2.5% 5 year fixed mortgages!

    Closing our eyes and talking about Gold won’t make it go away..

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 5

    HAM Solo Says:
    107

    @ “Buffet” it is two F’s and two T’s in Buffett. The other spells buffet, as in Uncle Willy’s buffet (bless its bankrupt soul) which was still, pound for pound, the cheapest hot meal that Vancouver ever saw.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 3

    HAM Solo Says:
    108

    @ Anon

    Yes low interest rates, all things being equal are a bit of a RE tailwind factor. However, the problem is that we have had these low rates for a long time and the stock of housing has surpassed the quantity needed. As any margined gold trader will tell you, low interest rates can’t stop price declines in a fundamentally mismatched supply/demand marketplace. You will note that low interest rates didn’t really stop the Japanese RE meltdown.

    If you think about it, the collapse in the interest rate curve might make that 60-something couple decide to sell because their income from investments has just taken a big hit.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3

    franco Says:
    109

    ****boomerang #97

    Couln’t agree more with those $2M+ monsters in North Van not moving.
    Don’t have a problem with plenty of space, but why try to squeeze as many rooms as possible into these places?
    I can’t imagine who agents are trying to impress with adds claiming 7 bedrooms or 8 bathrooms. The only group that can afford $2M+ houses are older folks with small or no family, and it’s the wrong neighbourhood for certain ethnic groups who like to keep several generations and in-laws under one roof.
    The same is true in many parts of West Van.

    With Asian money having dried up, I think developers are finally getting the message, but it’s too late for some of these places that have been on the market for over a year despite numerous price cuts.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    110

    patriotz Says:
    April 13th, 2013 at 3:20 am 76
    “I think Patriotz is going to correct you on that one….it’s a commodity that actually does cost $$ to extract and refine….”

    That has nothing to do with what it (or anything else) is “worth”. As Warren Buffett puts it:

    “[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

    I don’t like to use the term “worth” because people use it to mean either price or utility which are different things.

    Hey Patriotz did you read the original post? He said gold could go to “zero”. That is what I was referring to. I am well aware of what drives gold prices…..

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 5

    Wakeup call Says:
    111

    Int rates could dance around and fluctuate in small amounts for some time. Rates were cut as an emergency measure during the 2008 financial disaster, and the US economy may still be too fragile to jumpstart rates any time soon. Rates will go up eventually. Don’t know when, but they will (substantially), and that wiil be the final blow to a housing market that will already be well on it’s way down.

    Patience!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 6

    Amanda Li Says:
    112

    Low interest rates are (to paraphrase James Joyce)the opiates of the house horny masses. Ain’t going up for very, very long time.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 6

    Anon11 Says:
    113

    @ Anonymous1

    The 5 year rate could approach zero (like Japan) and prices will still fall as long as the inflation rate is falling faster.

    OTOH, if inflation turns around and starts going UP *faster* than the 5 year interest rate were to start going UP, then real estate prices will go UP (~2020s?). It’s true, often prices go up WITH interest rates going up.

    To simplify then, as *real* rates go UP (like now) prices go DOWN, and vice versa.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    114

    “For the record, count me as a long-term bull on gold.”

    You mean the nominal price of gold will be higher at some time in the future than today?

    Thank you for that profound insight.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 12

    Anonymous Says:
    115

    patriotz: “For the record, count me as a long-term bull on gold.” You mean the nominal price of gold will be higher at some time in the future than today? Thank you for that profound insight.

    If that was the definition on long term bull then everyone would be a long term bull on pretty much everything. So I guess you are a long term bull on Vancouver real estate? Of course at some time in the future (40 years?) the price of Vancouver real estate will be higher than today.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 8

    BWilson Says:
    116

    Hey Amanda Lee/Li it looks like your sister Chris has re-surfaced on MAC Marketing’s facebook page.. just click on the first photo. Looks like she’s going to call and get your parents to buy a unit in M Three in Coquitlam now.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    117

    “I asked my boss to be paid in “real” currency – gold. He laughed so hard he fell out of his chair. He doesn’t get it.”

    I asked my boss to be paid and He laughed so hard he fell out of his chair.

    Bill P.
    Hootsuite.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 3

    Short'em High Says:
    118

    @YLTNboomerang#97. One additional thought. If you are tracking homes in each neighbourhood in detail, consider developing your own pricing model. For one thing it would be interesting to understand a practical order of importance of variables suggested in the MLS HPI (link below):

    http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/HPI%20Methodology2012.pdf

    Some variables are tangible while others seem very hedonic. I would proceed in that order. Lot size, building area, building age, bathrooms, and bedrooms seem to be the most tangible factors. LINEST, the spreadsheet function, gives a multivariate coefficient of determination which you could maximize by trying every combination of input variables you think are important. You can also try your own variables.

    If you can find a reasonable fit in a few variables, you would have a very powerful tool to evaluate land vs building value based on closing or listing prices. You could also test if assessment values are reasonable for building and land. For each neighbourhood, land prices are likely to change at one rate and building prices at another rate. You can use common land and building price change rates to further refine the model.

    I think the focus on specific neighborhoods will reduce the number of variables for good fit compared to the general MLS HPI. Given that you seem concerned about paying too much for the building, this method provides an objective way to know if the building is overpriced relative to lesser buildings in the same neighbourhood.

    Give it a try and tell the forum if you find something interesting. Posting your data for others to tinker with might work too.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous1 Says:
    119

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    HAM Solo Says:
    120

    Was at a big birthday party this evening in the ‘hood. End up stuck besides a boomer going on about RE. Out of boredom I asked him what he did. Turns out he was a real estate lawyer for Faskins. So we got to talking about condo pre-sale contracts. These days 60% of what he does is to represent developers against people who have signed pre-sale agreements and then are trying to get out of them as in post #101 above. He says he is very busy,although still processing cases relating to pre-sale agreements dating back to 2008/09.

    He confirmed that the reason why people are suing to get out of the agremeents is because they can’t arrange financing from any bank, because a) the valuations have dropped and b) the lenders have tightened up. Then basically he outlined how he was protecting the big developers against “scam artists” trying to recover their deposits by using frivolous arguments about the builder being late or not building the units to spec. If you people know poor, foolish souls going bankrupt on condo pre-sale speculations … meet the bastard who is trying to cut off their last remaining out.

    After that, he tries to give me a big sell job on how investors need to start stepping into the market to pick up awesome deals. Amazingly, someone with a front row seat to a meltdown is still pumping the asset to anyone who will listen. He’s probably up his ying yang in “investment” properties himself. Sometimes I worry about the innocent souls this crash/correction is taking down … but I won’t lose a minute of sleep about this guy.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 42 Thumb down 0

    betamax Says:
    121

    Waiting to exhale Says: “largest real estate development in Abbotsford and it’s called “Central Park Village.” Afterwards Don Taylor comes on and says ” I hear it is a lot like New York.””

    He meant that you have a good chance of getting shot in a drive-by.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    122

    “If that was the definition on long term bull then everyone would be a long term bull on pretty much everything.”

    So what is the definition of “long term bull”?

    Miss the sarcasm?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    123

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Anonymous Says:
    124

    Wow! Quite the uptick in dork postings! Who would have made the call that Realtards could figure out how to use a browser?

    I guess they have lots of time for learning new skills. I suggest thy study consumer trends so they can recognize containers that are returnable for the deposit.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 4

    “meet the bastard who is trying to cut off their last remaining out.”

    Entertainment watching speculative fallout; so far as watching hungry angry dogs fight over scraps of meat is entertainment. I’ll be honest and tell you I feel nothing.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 4

    #Anon Says:
    126

    @ Anon

    The 5 year rate (ie. inflation) fell precipitously alongside home prices in the early 80′s too.
    So did resource prices, and household formation.
    http://i.imgur.com/feAoo.jpg
    A few more bouts of deflation & debt repudiation and we’ll be ready for our secular shift into 25 years of (more) wars & reinflation.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    127

    HAM solo: “If you people know poor, foolish souls going bankrupt on condo pre-sale speculations … meet the bastard who is trying to cut off their last remaining out.”

    I don’t have a problem with a developer trying to make sure the terms of the contract are met. I didn’t see developers trying to get out of presale contracts when prices were going up and the presale buyers were flipping condos at completion for huge gains. Now prices have dropped why should the presale buyer be able to get out of the contract?

    On the other hand if a presale buyer has a legitimate out then I don’t have a problem with that either. I doubt there will be many legitimate outs since the contracts are written by the developers lawyers and all the terms pretty much favour the developer. In either case it will be fun to watch from the sidelines.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    128

    Patriotz: So what is the definition of “long term bull”?

    I would say anything over 1 year is long term.

    Here is the definition of a long term investment:

    “An account on the asset side of a company’s balance sheet that represents the investments that a company intends to hold for more than a year. They may include stocks, bonds, real estate and cash.”

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longterminvestments.asp

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    Anonymous Says:
    129

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    bird-man Says:
    130

    China H7N9 bird flu area spreads, two new deaths. Spreads to Beijing.

    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1214364/two-new-h7n9-bird-flu-infections-found-central-henan

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 6

    Anonymous Says:
    131

    Whisperer has posted on the fact MAC’s ‘Chris Lee is back at the MThree project in Coquitlam.

    Where’s her sister? Isn’t that Melanie Briggs on the far right in the photo?

    http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2013/04/macs-infamous-chris-lee-resurfaces-as.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    Joe Mainlander Says:
    132

    @ Anonymous #127

    Agree. It’s these pre-sale buyers and speculators who drove prices up. They signed up; they should close. It was their risk. They weren’t ‘poor, foolish souls’, they were greedy speculators who tried to make easy money without working for it. Can’t understand anyone who would feel in any way sorry for them.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    133

    “So what is the definition of “long term bull”?”

    I think the term is meaningless, which was my point in first place.

    If you think now is the best time to buy you are a bull. If you think some point in the future is the best time to buy you are a bear. That’s all.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    134

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 10

    baby-man Says:
    135

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 5

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    136

    “134
    wow, that is very intelligent. it take the whole degree of armchair economist to figture that out!”

    Which, it seems, the “long term bulls” are lacking.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 6

    frank Says:
    137

    Things not so rosy in the Okanagan

    http://fishyre.blogspot.ca/2013/04/whats-up-in-okanagan.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    138

    This is the new normal. A sideways market. No crash. Why would there be a crash? Because every bubble crashes? That assumes that this is a bubble. Some people think that every time prices grt a head of fundamentals that it’s a bubble. This is false.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 4 Thumb down 9

    omfgitslikegrouponbutforcondosftw Says:
    139

    Meaningless factoid, but I just noticed a 7-digit MLS number (V10000xx). Looks like we’ve passed V999999.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    Reality Says:
    140

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 11

    Reality Says:
    141

    *2014

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 2 Thumb down 9

    Anonymous Says:
    142

    Reality: “Open Houses very busy Today.”

    Open houses are full of people who have not bought. For the most part tire kickers. Sorry, not going to help with your earnings. It is going to be a lean Spring for realturds.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 4

    Reality Says:
    143

    Post 140 wasn’t meant to be hurtful.

    It was an observation. I too am looking for a second home and found that the open houses were very busy today.

    I’m not a real estate agent.

    I’m not worried about a potential correction that may or may not happen. What I Do Know is rent will pay off 33% of the house (has 2 suites also) within 10 years…and 50% within 15 years.

    So are houses going to be 50% cheaper in 15 years?? Factoring in inflation of 50% over the next 15 years means that my mortgage will be a smaller portion of the value of my 2nd home.

    Families I know are buying sfd homes with suites. The upstairs and the 2 suites provide more than enough income to cover the rent and other expenses. Surrey is looking into legalizing 2 suites now! If I can, I will put in a 3rd suite if space allows. If Surrey doesn’t allow this, then good luck getting elected..

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 3 Thumb down 10

    auric goldfinger Says:
    144

    GOLD plunged $36 in asia. prepare for a blood bath in NY and London
    on monday.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 4

    anonymouse Says:
    145

    Surrey, a little bit of heaven on earth.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    146

    @ Reality

    If any correction is on the horizon….

    Are you suggesting that nothing has begun to correct?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    Short'em High Says:
    147

    @#144Goldfinger! On my screen I see -$50 breakdown to peak and even more if you sold at the death rattle rally that was crushed around 3 hours after open. BTW, NY and London were electronic trading since 3pm Sunday Vancouver time as I pointed out in my earlier post on Saturday in this very thread! Yes it’s true that when the equity monkeys wake up on Monday to check the price of their SPDR GLD shares anything could happen to my 100oz short, so I don’t count my chickens yet. London regular hours start around Sunday midnight Vancouver time, so check your screen. Maybe those deep pocket believers like Peter Schiff will step up and make it interesting! Gold is really cheap now so they should be buying, right?

    @Reality#143, please buy all the Surrey places can borrow and fix them up nice for that sea of Surrey tenants you are tapping into. If you’re right about prices and tenants you’ll be buying the bottom and will have the world by the tail. Please post how many places/suites you get and with what percentage downpayment!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

    “Families I know are buying sfd homes with suites”

    Maybe it’s semantics but if you have an SFD with suites, that sounds kinda “multifamily” to me.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

    YLTNboomerang Says:
    149

    @Shortem

    I lost acces to MLS (a friend gave me their user info) a few years back so my data now consists of weekly manual recording from the public MLS listings. The problem in using this data for any statistical analysis is that sometimes I was too busy with work to record sometimes or I had to make assumptions when a place re-lists as to whether the owner is the same person or a new flipper. The bottom line is my data, which was posted on the forum a while back, is food for anecdotal references.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    Reality Says:
    150

    Whatever guys. I think I’ll just move on from this one sided blog. Let’s concentrate the doomed crowd here to reinforce your opinions.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 5

    Short'em High Says:
    151

    @YLTNboomerang#149. Can you place the month when you posted your data? I vaguely remember seeing a table or spreadsheet of detached properties but can’t place when that was. That REBGV HPI methodology document is revealing if data is available. If there are enough poperties and explanatory columns in your post it could be interesting.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    152

    the crowd here in this blog were doomed long ago, in case you havent noticed. example, one had to move all the way to ottawa and still posts every hour.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 5

    Short'em High Says:
    153

    @Reality#150. One sided? If you’re right, you’re right. For one, I’d like to know what sort of financing leverage is actually available based on your rental value arguments. Is this a 10% down deal with a CMHC form? How much money does one have to put up to get in on this once in a lifetime opportunity?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    auric goldfinger Says:
    154

    @147 Short’em High,

    We live in interesting times.
    Has gold lost its shine,
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/all-shine-and-no-substance-the-reality-of-gold/article11169399/

    or is it war between West and East where price of GOLD AND SILVER
    is the battlefield.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    auric goldfinger Says:
    155

    @147 Short’em High,

    is it war between West and East where price of GOLD AND SILVER
    is the battlefield.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/09/201199175046520396.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    asiaman Says:
    156

    I keep looking in on my buddies here at VCI in my mind its simple, crash will come when interest rates move that will be crash number one, second crash will come a decade or two later when baby boomers start dying en masse. the canadian real estate market in the west is absolutley screwed valuation wise. Its just like the Japanese bubble which is still deflating, but defalted enough to be a good deal (minus the radiation and stuff).

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    gokou3 Says:
    157

    Re: #127

    “I didn’t see developers trying to get out of presale contracts when prices were going up and the presale buyers were flipping condos at completion for huge gains.”

    I think that happened a few years ago for a development marketed by Fred Moy (aka Cheap Moy), a chinese realtor well known for promoting cheaply built places along the kingsway corridor. Those were the good days..

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

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