FFFA! Inspections, Inventory, Data & The Bear Show

Hey, you made it to the end of another work week! Lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread, here are a few links to kick off the chat:

Don’t trust the realtors inspector?
Old inventory hits the roof
Inventory hits highest level in decade
Man loses $745000 condo deposit
It’s a dogs market in Vancouver
So far so good for soft landing
or not
Ah, historical data
Are you going to the show?

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Amanda Li
Guest
Amanda Li
3 years 5 months ago

The Sun is going to rise in the west tomorrow.
The VCI bears are quiet, even though its past 6 a.m.
Price of gold and other PMS is plunging.
Stock market bubble is about to burst.
The global debt is huge.
Japan is pumping $81 billion a month. No effect.
USA is pumping $85 billion a month. No effect.
Ditto for EU
The world is coming to an end.
Meaningless to buy a home at this point in time.

Amanda Li
Guest
Amanda Li
3 years 5 months ago

Slovenia can’t sell bonds.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

Amazed how much effort trolls put into writing here. Microcosm for Vancouver- not enough else to do but be unproductive.

Q
Guest
Q
3 years 5 months ago

A tattoo parlour that has been on Scott Road in Delta for 18 years is going to have its annual business licence fee increase from $97 to $3525. That’s a 3634% increase!!! The reason is Delta wants to revitalize the Scott Road strip and doesn’t want so many tattoo shops and cheque cashing places. Without those, the only other businesses cater to the Indian community. I guess the whole strip is going to go Indian now.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/04/11/bc-scott-road-business-ban.html

Gail Whiteperson
Guest
Gail Whiteperson
3 years 5 months ago

that’s horrible. tattoo shops and money mart are an essential part of caucasian culture. it sucks that they are being pushed out for indian busienss. ‘5 bucks on a hun’ is as canadian as the ‘double double’.

what has this country come to?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

Conservatives dropping in the Polls. Liberals ahead of them now.

Spread the the truth about these big business scumbags;

1) Telecom collusion
2) domestic open skies policy.
3) dairy not poultry cartel
4) big oil
5) cmhc
6) big banks that run our country
7) Temp Foreign Workers – just have permanent foreign workers.
8) media concentration

Feel free to add…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

>Feel free to add…

9) Fuck off

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High
3 years 5 months ago

@VHB. What was your month end sales estimate based on yesterday’s @paulb number?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

Post #7

Feeling scared?. You should be asshole!

Yoda
Guest
Yoda
3 years 5 months ago

RE Post 9

My line that is, stole it you have!

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 5 months ago

Hey guys, keep it civilized. It’s Friday today 🙂

suomynonA
Guest
suomynonA
3 years 5 months ago

Troll day falls on a friday this week? 😀

Now imagine, if you guys put half as much effort into getting your clients to lower their price maybe you could get that house sold, collect your commission cheque and move on.

Very Little Gravitas Indeed
Guest
Very Little Gravitas Indeed
3 years 5 months ago

The trolling seems to have gotten more aggressive since the bitcoin crash. I wonder how many had their dreams of getting out from under their debts crushed?

Dave
Member
3 years 5 months ago

Hey guys. Haven’t posted for a while. What’s the mood at VCI? Are most still hopeful for a correction still? Or has there been any capitulation?

/dev/null
Member
/dev/null
3 years 5 months ago

#14 – Disappointed to see that you dragged “Dave” out of the sockpuppet box, Mr. “Haven’t posted in a while”.

Groundhog
Guest
Groundhog
3 years 5 months ago

@14 I’m just hoping things continue as they do this spring. Come summer/fall I expect more price drops. My plan is to start looking late 2014, early 2015.

Dave
Member
3 years 5 months ago

/dev/null… Hardly a sockpuppet. You’re talking to the guy who still has a perfect track record here at VCI. You should feel privileged that I have returned to drop knowledge.

Groundhog, seems like a reasonable plan to me.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 5 months ago

@Dave: You’re talking to the guy who still has a perfect track record here at VCI.
Could you please refresh our memories about what your track record is?

You should feel privileged that I have returned to drop knowledge.
We do. Please share more of your knowledge to us. I’m really craving for it.

Dave
Member
3 years 5 months ago
Makaya, back in 2008 before the correction, I said a correction was coming. That wasn’t very contentious at the time because everybody was calling for a crash. However, I said the market would not drop more than 15%. That turned out to be correct. Right before the bottom of the market, I predicted we would have a strong bounce and that prices would start to recover. That was also correct. I predicted that the market would not make new highs, which it did, so I was wrong there. I predicted that after the recovery, prices would be mostly flat with… Read more »
bird-man
Guest
bird-man
3 years 5 months ago

China reports 1 new bird flu death, 2 new infections, bringing total deaths to 11

Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/china-reports-1-new-bird-flu-death-2-new-infections-bringing-total-deaths-to-11-1.1235051#ixzz2QH2UKrDo

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

@ Dave 19

So where do we go from here?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
3 years 5 months ago

“It’s a problem when Vancouver condos sell, but the lights stay off” Globe and Mail, 12apr13.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/its-a-problem-when-vancouver-condos-sell-but-the-lights-stay-off/article11147711/

“They’re pushing up property prices by using Vancouver real estate to store their money as if it were one giant “safety deposit box,” to quote one of the panelists.”

Goldmember
Guest
Goldmember
3 years 5 months ago

Hello deflation! Got gold? Got Van House?? 😉

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

were sales really 30% higher last month compared to the month before?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjlBQTqp878&feature=youtube_gdata_player

VMD
Member
3 years 5 months ago

Remember “The Met”, one of the presale condos by metrotown that had the customary line-up and tents?
An ad appeared on several Chinese RE portals yesterday:

“Seeking transfer of presale contract in The Met. 5th floor, 1BR+Den, 703sf.
At original price of $327,900. Paid 10% deposit already. Another 7% due Apr 18, 2013. Another 3% due Jan 31, 2015. Completion Fall 2015.”

– LOL, can’t pay the 7% due in 6 days?

Via google translate

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High
3 years 5 months ago
Further to 17k inventory, let’s recap. Based on the BCREA monthly stats as recorded by @jesse, there are three years since 2005 which have at least one month with inventory in excess of 17,000. Those years are listed below. year month inv 2008 2008-05-31 17512 2010 2010-05-31 17500 2012 2012-05-31 17835 Since the supply conditions of those particular years might be similar to 2013 going forward, I have simulated the sales of those years and plotted the results along with every other year since 1999 and seasonally adjusted to 2013. The link to that graphic is below. http://postimg.org/image/cmpsy4zav/ There is… Read more »
suomynonA
Guest
suomynonA
3 years 5 months ago

Hey Dave, I can’t remember what your prediction / forecast was last year. I remember some people asked you if it was a good time to buy property as an investment for the short term. Did you forecast prices at this point to be up or down from then?

I guess since you have a ‘perfect track record’ you must have said the prices would be down, but I also seem to remember you just answering with a squishy kind of non-answer, do I have that wrong?

frank
Guest
frank
3 years 5 months ago

That tattoo comment was the best ever.

All White Delta council

Mayor Lois E. Jackson
Councillor Sylvia Bishop
Councillor Robert Campbell
Councillor Scott Hamilton
Councillor Jeannie Kanakos
Councillor Bruce McDonald
Councillor Ian L. Paton

Wants to break up that back-bone of Canadian culture tattoo parlours and check scamming to make it Indian.

I assume posted in jest or I hope that’s what the 13 members who green thumbed thought or there are more paranoid lunatics

Seen how many tattoos the East Indian and Chinese gangs have btw- almost as much as the Angels!

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 5 months ago

To long-suffering VCI crowd,

It is tough watching for years idiots playing with fire in this silly market. However, bubbles do pop. And April is often the month we see this happen. Bye bye bitcoins, can million dollar teardowns be far behind?

http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-winklevoss-twins-bitcoin-20130412,0,2585829.story

Next Year
Guest
Next Year
3 years 5 months ago

You may recall that million dollar teardowns went up as a result of the greatest financial disaster/bust since 1929. If that did not bring down Vancouver house prices, nothing will.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

Haha. Actually, you might recall prices on million dollar tear downs plummeted sharply until interest rates were cranked to record lows and the cmhc pumped unprecedented amounts of money into backing mortgages.

Q
Guest
Q
3 years 5 months ago
The comment on the tattoo parlours was not in jest. I think it is unfair to raise business licences by over 3000%. It’s a business that was there for 18 years. In the current economic climate, I don’t think municipalities should be trying to run successful businesses out of town. The Indian part was a secondary point to my main point. If you take a ride down Scott Road, you will see that the majority of businesses in the north section of Scott Road have signage in Punjabi. The tattoo parlours and cheque cashing places are some of the only… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

Gold broke key support of $1550. Didn’t think I’d be saying this, but it has lot’s of room to fall.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

Just when you thought that things were going in the toilet, the Vancouver Sun, that bastion of journalistic integrity, posts an article today claiming “Vancouver housing prices stabilizing”.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+housing+prices+stabilizing/8233062/story.html

Great it’s all good! Let’s go for beers.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
3 years 5 months ago

>“Vancouver housing prices stabilizing”

is that untrue? weren’t prices in March stable versus February? the people on this blog don’t know where prices are going, as we’ve seen over the past 7 years.

so please don’t act like it is self evident that prices will keep going down. the news paper reports the news, not sci-fi fantasy predictions of what the world will be in the future.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 5 months ago

“Gold broke key support of $1550. Didn’t think I’d be saying this, but it has lot’s of room to fall.”

Gold always has room to fall – all the way to zero – because it’s only worth what people say it’s worth.

rp1
Guest
rp1
3 years 5 months ago

Note the incredible correlation between gold and Vancouver real estate.

jesse
Member
3 years 5 months ago

Goldfinger trade: loves only gold, expects bond to die

Dave
Member
3 years 5 months ago

Goldfinger is a bad trade right now. The Bank of Japan is keeping bonds alive for now.

Anonymous1
Guest
Anonymous1
3 years 5 months ago

Q Post 32:

“Racial tensions between whites and browns in that area are quite high right now.”

Give it 10-20 years. No racial tensions will exist by then. That area will be 80% Indian. Why are you so worried?

mac
Member
mac
3 years 5 months ago

Inventory hits highest level in a decade? I think I know how the agents and bulls on this site will spin it:

I know you are but what am I?

party on
Guest
party on
3 years 5 months ago

17K today

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 5 months ago

@Vote Down The Facts

I think Patriotz is going to correct you on that one….it’s a commodity that actually does cost $$ to extract and refine….

Dumbest time in 31 tears to buy RE
Guest
Dumbest time in 31 tears to buy RE
3 years 5 months ago

Must be a strange day when my favorate comment so far is post #7.
Nor has Dave’s return helped to cheer up a grumpy crowd. Probably the weather and an ugly day for commodities…RE is next!
Sure hope Paulb will cheer us up.

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan
3 years 5 months ago

bought more gold stocks today

in the deep discount bin

more energy stocks too

who knows

vancouver RE is much easier to predict – DOWN we go

Waiting to exhale
Guest
Waiting to exhale
3 years 5 months ago

I was driving home from work and I was listening to the Team 1040 and they were promoting a new development in Abbotsford saying it is the largest real estate development in Abbotsford and it’s called “Central Park Village.” Afterwards Don Taylor comes on and says ” I hear it is a lot like New York.”

I almost drove off the road after that statement.

paulb
Member
3 years 5 months ago

New Listings 235
Price Changes 117
Sold Listings 120
TI:17043

http://www.paulboenisch.com

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2
3 years 5 months ago

Knowing Don’s personality, I’ll bet he said that with a chuckle in his voice. He’s a smart guy but he knows who ultimately pays him.

VHB
Member
VHB
3 years 5 months ago

Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 9
Weekends / holidays 3
Days missing 0
Days remaining 12
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 127
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 287
SALES
Sales so far 1034
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1522
Projected month end total 2556
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 2676
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 3446
Projected month end total 6122
Sell-list so far 38.6%
Projected month-end sell-list 41.7%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of April 12th, 2013 17043
MoI at this sales pace 6.67

frank
Guest
frank
3 years 5 months ago

17,043!

Thanks Paul. Onward and upward.

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