FFFA! tiny boxes and debt glorious debt

Hey! You made it to the end of another work week! Let’s do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Families leave Vancouver
Get back in your box!
Carney warns of rate hike
Ontario to crack down on debt settlement
Tax man looks at condo flippers
Big money anecdotes!
Competition Bureau loses MLS case on technicality
17k party party
Sunshine coast active listings
Dead end for Chinas economy?

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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auric goldfinger
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auric goldfinger
Amanda Li
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Amanda Li
Carioca Canuck
Guest
Carioca Canuck
An “accidental landlord” anecdote……….. A pregnant coworker of mine decides to quit her job and move back to the inner hinterlands of BC with her boyfriend. She owns a condo here and asks me for rental advice as she is upside down and cannot afford to sell. She says she is going to ask $1,600 rent as that is what her monthly nut is. I ask her what the comps are in her building and she says $1,300 and that people are posting ads on CL asking to pay $1,200………. I aks her what her place is worth and she says she could probably get $210 according to her realtor……so I show her that with 10% down and a 3.5% mortgage amortized over 25 years that is $973 a month….her condo fees are $325 and taxes are $100……$1,398 total……..she says… Read more »
An Observer
Guest

You could have skipped the math and just said “why do you think you can get $1600 when other people with similar units are hoping to get $1200?”

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Carioca Canuck Says: “She says she is going to ask $1,600 rent as that is what her monthly nut is. I aks her what her place is worth and she says she could probably get $210 according to her realtor…”

From what I see you get $1600 per month rent for a $400K plus condo. If she gets $1000 per month for a $210K place she is doing very well.

Seafair dweller
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Seafair dweller

An interesting brochure popped through our mail slot this week.

A local realtor has put together a list of houses sold in our West Richmond neighbourhood within the last 60 days. There were 6 houses in the 50-year-old range sold (original builds for the area), 4 houses in the 10-20 year range (mid-90’s wave of demolition/new construction) and only 1 brand new house sold. For-sale inventory is 80 homes: 18 listings older than 20 years old and 62 listings that are 20 years old and newer.
By my calculations, this means there are 6 months of inventory of the older houses, and 25 months of inventory of the newer ones. What a difference! Driving through the neighbourhood, there is at least one brand new (and usually vacant) house on almost every street.

Bull! Bull! Bull! @Groundhog
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Bull! Bull! Bull! @Groundhog

to continue our conversation from yesterday…

>Do you understand the properties of risk, bullbullbull?

i’d like to hear what you think the properties of risk are. please enlighten me. what are risk’s properties.

VMD
Member

@#6 Seafair dweller
for March Richmond Update, see the following report written by Rmd realtor James Wong 3 days ago:

“There are currently 608 detached homes for sale in Richmond at prices above $1,000,000. With average past 3 months sale around 31 homes, the MOI is at 28.8 months.
And for homes above $1,500,000, there are 350 homes available for sale. At an average past 3-month sale of 11 homes a month, there are 31.8 months of supply for homes over $1,500,000.”
http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=904

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

i’m interested in hearing what bears think of the new drop from peak chart? we heard a lot from all of you when the last one came out.

http://vancouverpricedrop.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/chart.png

Anonymous1
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Anonymous1

Lot prices in Surrey to guage true demand for land: 6000 sq ft lot.

2001 – $ 150,000

2008 – $ 390,000

2009 – $ 360,000

2010 – $ 400,000

2011 – $ 410,000

2012 – $ 460,000

2013 – $ 480,000

All I look at is lot prices and what I see is absolutely no chnage. At least in Surrey.

Government is not doing its job allowing rampant speculation.

Very Little Gravitas Indeed
Guest
Very Little Gravitas Indeed

@Bull!^3: What about it, is there something surprising about it? You know we found out about the numbers he’s using back at the beginning of this month (MLS HPI), right?

Thanks for the graph, Observer!

UBC in crisis mode
Guest
UBC in crisis mode
Some information in Ben’s talk yesterday can be found here in his recent blog: … … 5) Canadians’ exposure to the housing market in their investment portfolios: A hard landing will hurt! By now it should be obvious that the Canadian real estate is well into a correction of some description, and I remain convinced that the near-mythical “soft landing” policy makers are striving for will be very difficult to achieve without inflicting significant collateral damage on the labor market and broader economy. In which case, will it remain a soft landing? I’ve addressed that question in a recent Globe piece and in a series I recently wrote on this site. It begs a question: Have you given thought to what this all means to your investment portfolio? Though some bearded gurus believe otherwise, I cannot envision a scenario where… Read more »
Lola
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Lola

Whatever Ben R. Says, you have to take it with a grain of salt. His opinions are very biased and self serving. He wants you to put money in stocks, while he is probably, shorting. The only way he can flood the stock market with $$$$$ is if people stop buying homes, sold their home and bought stocks. The stock market is in a bubble and about to burst. He is pumping and dumping. He is a Schill for the National Bank. Just like Peter Schiff, who sells precious metals. Peter wants to steer money towrds precious metal and away from stock market and real estate.
Good luck with your investments, be they P.Metals, stocks or Real Estate

Anonimous
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Anonimous

We must be in deep shit if people are actually joking about voting for Dix to fan the flames of the crash.

If the best the NDP can do to pick a leader like that, I can’t imagine who they would have to stoop to to form a cabinet. Carrol James who was thought to be a detriment to the party doesn’t look so bad now.
I actually feel bad for the poor bugger and hope he doesn’t start to tremble and stutter during his rare campaign videos. No wonder he doesn’t have the balls to go up against Christy in a debate…even if they offered him free skytrain fare to the TV studio.

Sorry, but it needed to be said.

jesse
Member
One thing I found an interesting perspective on the rental market, brought up at a get-together with Ben and some others earlier this week, was reiterating the mis-match between rental supply and demand from a quality perspective. There have been an inordinate number of condos built to the “new” quality standard, some good features and some bad features, with emphasis put on some marquee finishing touches like granite, stainless steel, marble, and other so-called luxury finishes in an otherwise pedestrian space. Owners of these units look at the big ticket finishing highlights and categorize the property as attracting prime tenants. However I don’t believe there has been a marked increase in prime tenants any more than there was 10 years ago; rather it’s the same basic tenant demographic. So we have landlords punting perceived higher-end condos to a rental base… Read more »
Brian Ripley
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RE: “Canadians’ exposure to the housing market in their investment portfolios: A hard landing will hurt!” (#12 UBC in crisis mode)

J.C. Parets asks: “Will there be a rotation back into resource heavy economies?”.

Chart here: http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2013/04/world-stock-markets-update.html

My reply: “A return to the commodity bull and continuing low interest rates will probably keep the Canadian housing sector spirits alive. But if commodity prices keep falling, a cascade of events will keep the under performers under performing.”

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

first, i don’t believe the graph can tell you what is going to happen. for me, it is for ‘novelty purposes only’.

but i know bears put a lot of belief in it and were using it to justify maimi type crash scenarios. it seems clear that such predictions can no longer be made. another bear theory dis proven.

Very Little Gravitas Indeed Says:
April 19th, 2013 at 8:53 am 11
@Bull!^3: What about it, is there something surprising about it? You know we found out about the numbers he’s using back at the beginning of this month (MLS HPI), right?

Do not read this
Guest
Do not read this

If you are a Realtor, Hating, Nazi. There must be a lot of jealous, bottom feeding, renters (or those living in mama’s basement), who cannot tolerate different opinions. Poor Lola, she got down voted into oblivion in 35minutes. It is 11:00a.m. now and she has 3 up votes and 6 down votes. Any More up or down votes only indicates that even though, her comments are hidden, her opinions are still read.

Anonymous1
Guest
Anonymous1

Jesse,
I don’t know if this is applicable to ur knowledge base but here in Surrey,

Recent Indian Foreign students rent when they come here. The first thing they did after arriving was buy brand new Escapades…yes the 3 of them. So it’s a different type of rental demo.

Carney is going to push up rents. That’s his intent. By limiting mortgage growth and having the SAME number of people pour into this country is going to increase rents. I will bet anyone that this is going to happen.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
jesse, they may also be shocked to discover many prime tenants favor rental buildings over stratas. In our recent apartment hunt, we discovered there’s a lot of reasons we discover to avoid renting in a condo: 1) It costs more and you have to potential for any number of additional fees and fines. Many long-time renters will be shocked to discover move-in/move-out fees. 2) Tenant control. Even if your condo landlord is good, you can’t predict what other owners and tenants will be like. You probably have very little recourse for any problems. In a rental building, if your neighbour is blasting rap music at 3am, you have a very direct ways to deal with it. 3) The landlords themselves. You are either dealing with naive regular folks or shifty real estate types. Who knows when they’ll demand a surprise… Read more »
jesse
Member

“is going to increase rents”

The Bank of Canada highlighted an imbalance between population growth and burgeoning supply. Vancouver has the same situation from what I see, with units under construction near highs pre-2008 but with 50% less population growth.

I agree rents will likely continue to increase but I think the real story is on P&L, not headline rents.

KBro
Guest
KBro

Re: #14

“No wonder he does’t have the balls to go up against Christy in a debate”

That’s gotta be a first.
Has any other politician ever declined such an invitation?

@Do not read this
Guest
@Do not read this

the bear dogma must not be questioned.

Lola asked bears to take what Ben R says with a GRAIN OF SALT. even the smallest bit of scepticism and reflection is not permitted! this is heresy against the bear dogma. she must repent or be cast down into foreclosure by a thousand thumbs.

may the bear hegemony reign for a thousand years!

ex-kitsie
Guest
ex-kitsie

Re: #14

Adrian Dix refused a one-on-one debate with Christie Clark – he proposed an all candidate format. She refused to debate with the other party leaders, disrespecting not only the Conservatives but the Greens as well by declaring them irrelevant.

Anonymous!
Guest
Anonymous!

Jesse,

“The Bank of Canada highlighted an imbalance between population growth and burgeoning supply…”

Point noted. But I wonder why StatsCan never includes Temporary residents here. Adding up all the TFW here, those TFW who’s visas expired, and TFS…it’s almost a million people unaccounted for.

Unless I’m missing something or am off significantly on the numbers, these people are going to take up rentals.

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