BC, economy, predictions, prices, supply

Spring has lost it’s sproing

58
58 Comments

Normally spring is a busy time in the real estate market.

Sales rise, prices rise.

That’s normal.

What isn’t normal is when usually optimistic Real Estate organizations and banks start predicting falling prices.

Down is the new normal.

Central 1 Credit union economist Bryan Yu says last year hit a 12 year low in sales and the coming year is predicted to be bad with continuing drops in both sales and prices:

He expects resales will fall another four per cent this year to 31,500 while the median price, the midpoint between highest and lowest, will slide six per cent to $474,000.

Yu says “subdued immigration, stagnant employment growth and the most recent round of mortgage insurance rule tightening will weigh on purchasing… biting particularly hard in high-priced Greater Vancouver.”

Full article at News 1130.

58 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Anonymous

C Junta Post #54:

That’s what Ive been saying all along. It’s Immigration numbers that are pushing housing prices to the moon. Its only going to continue….

Vancouver will be an Asian city by the year 2100. What will stop the people from segregating from Canada? The votes for a YES referendum will be there.

BTW, dont believe others that say Immigrations is low. The article says close to 750,000 per year in all categories. Banks (like garth) have a vested interest to keep this info secret.

0
0
rp1

#52 I can’t believe I watched that 🙁

0
0
HAM Solo

@ the Troll

There is a bit of an inverse relationship between gold and real interest rates. And there is a relationship between real estate prices and the level of nominal interest rates. Go back and look at the charts.

It’s kind of instructive that the RE trolls find just the idea of a mining stock dangerous. There are no assets that only go up and none that only go down. Why is it safe to buy a condo at record high price per sq foot but dangerous to buy a stock at a record low price-to-book?

0
0
real_professional

Our house, is a very, very, very leveraged house
With two HELOCs so far, life used to be so hard
Now everything is easy, ’cause five year yields are under two-ooo

Our house, is a very, very, very over valued house
With Asian buyers moving in from afar, my kids will have it so hard
Once equilibrium existed, ‘before you

0
0
C.Junta

Surprisingly decent issue of Vancouver Sun on April 1st.

Opinion: The immigration questions we dare not ask
“Some (not all) immigrants regard Canada as a motel where they can check in and enjoy the services, without having to abide by the rules”
By Robert Sibley – http://bit.ly/128tAqD

Whites to become minority in Metro Vancouver by 2031
“Segregated neighbourhoods predicted as balance of population changes”
By Douglas Todd – http://bit.ly/Xy0xKp

I have an impression that Kenney and the gang read proper blogs sometimes. I hope so anyways.

0
0
real_professional

I just sold my house that I bought on the weekend. Made a 150K profit in just 48 hours and two months before I take possession.

Just call me the “uber exorcist” because i deliver before possession!

Yup good to be a bull! I tried calculating my return but since I haven’t put down anything, division by zero, can you say INFINITY PERCENT RETURN People?

There must be a rich Asian investor going mad with an abacus right now trying to figure out my return.

0
0
Turkey

,

But you didn’t see the hidden message in the photo! Who’s that in the Rangers uniform? Wayne Gretzky of course. Don’t see the message? Why, Gretzky means Greek in Polish! Greek contagion in Wall Street! That’s going to cause the Canadian housing bubble to pop!

Necessary watching…

0
0
Groundhog

@bon jovi,

Maybe all the good promoters switched to RE… Would explain a lot about how th RE industry conducts itself.

0
0
bon jovi

so why the VSE is down 60% when we have the highest prices in the resources ever?

0
0
@ @Ham Solo

“the venture exchange is down…doesn’t mean anything.”

Yeah, Vanc’s old VSE (venture) is only down about 60% in the past two years. How could that mean anything? It’s not like mining & energy are useful to Canada’s economy.

0
0
chilled

He’s a flippin’ and a floppin’ again!!

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/04/01/offer-like-a-man/

0
0
midnite toker

VMD: Those must be the green jobs Mayor Robertson is always talking about.

0
0
Victoria House Hunt

Looks like Victoria House Hunt is being shut down tonight after being offered a lot of cash by the real estate cartel…

Doesn’t look like an April Fool’s Day joke…

There were only a few decent posters on the site, but they had some good data on the ever declining Victoria market…

For those bloggers that post on this and Victoria house hunt, please be sure to post your data on this site…

Give a big F U to the real estate cartel…

What a corrupt industry when they try to shut down the free flow of information…

Guess the market real is that bad…

0
0
Told-you-so

@ Gail Whiteperson,

“the real estate industry and prostitution are actually very tightly intertwined.”

You know, I never thought of this before you pointed it out, but they really do, by golly! You could almost say brokerage=pimp and realtor=prostitute under the commission-split model, wouldn’t you say? Thanks so much for pointing this out to all of us.

“In the commission-split model, still used by most brokerages, agents split the commission with the broker. Typically, the split starts at 50%; as agents prove their worth, they can capture up to 80%. Like the desk-fee model, broker owners still cover administrative costs, but agents pay to market their own properties.

0
0
patriotz

“We made business insider’s list of biggest asset bubbles – although no real analysis was done.”

Ah! But you didn’t see the hidden message in the photo! Who’s that in the Rangers uniform? Wayne Gretzky of course. Don’t see the message? Why, Gretzky means Greek in Polish! Greek contagion in Wall Street! That’s going to cause the Canadian housing bubble to pop!

April Fool today, pumpers’ excuse tomorrow. 🙂

0
0
Gail Whiteperson

“Realtor charged with living off avails of prostitution”

the real estate industry and prostitution are actually very tightly intertwined. i learned that on an episode of “Criminal Minds”, so i consider myself an expert on the subject.

i’m also an expert on shark fin soup after watching shark week on discovery channel. feel free to ask me any questions on the subject or join me in my continued efforts to have the barbaric practice banned.

0
0
@HAM Solo

“It feels a bit like one of those inflection points again.”

you guys say this every fucking month for 7 years. the venture exchange is down because junior golds are down. doesn’t mean anything.

gotta love this site and the posters. they are just smart enough to be be dangerous… to themselves.

0
0
Told-you-so

Not Vancouver related, but just had to share. Kinda gives “house pimp” a whole new meaning… ugh.

Realtor charged with living off avails of prostitution

http://tinyurl.com/cu9kodb

0
0
rp1

Plently of sproing right here: http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=260153148

0
0
Amanda Li

@ #36 Crikey

“In a nutshell, the steps are: “smile and stand confidently, move your mouth, but say nothing”.

The guy in the video reminds me of PaulB.

0
0
HAM Solo

Just took a look at the CDNX Venture Exchange index over the past two years. March 2011 to March 2013 that INDEX was down 55%. Oddly enough, while we’ve been talking about a collapse in RE, there has been one going on in our midst amongst junior mining companies. As a student of the markets, I am reminded of many occasions of high times in one sector combined with trough-level valuations in another. Call it “the black hole effect,” where every spare nickel gets pulled out of other assets to pound into the hot market. Note that REITs languished with double-digit yields in 2000 while the mob chased the Nasdaq to 5000; Copper bumped along at 65c in 2003 while bonds soared. It feels a bit like one of those inflection points again. There are line-ups in the street to… Read more »

0
0
Short'em High

Topic MARCH 2013: Peak sales month or not?

Here is the peak sales month for the past 3 years:

sales month
3450 2010-04-30
4080 2011-03-31
2900 2012-03-31
2395 2013-03-31 ?

If March 2013 is the peak sales month then, using the Nominal Days method of seasonal adjustment, one can project MOI into the future. Linked below is a graphic of 2013 MOI in both a 2012 and 2008 scenario based on March being the peak sales month of 2013.

http://postimg.org/image/51heqr26x/

Will the first week of April approach 600 sales to get near March’s 2395 by end of month? We will find out in a just a few more days! Hopefully PaulB will post a sales number today to get the ball rolling.

0
0
Crikey

Oops meant to add in my last post the new instructional video just put out by the local real estate board. This video teaches BC’s used house salespeople and MSM how to respond to any buyer/public questioning about the obviously bursting housing bubble.
In a nutshell, they steps are: “smile and stand confidently, move your mouth, but say nothing”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6ZxknCZ_Tw

Okay, now I’m good until next year. 🙂

0
0
Scuba-Steve

Sales #’s are in…

Mar/13 = 2355 sales @ $761,392 = $1.79 billion dollars
Mar/12 = 2878 sales @ $763,780 = $2.20 billion dollars
Mar/11 = 4084 sales @ $786,896 = $3.21 billion dollars

0
0
Anonymous

you hear it first here: jesse is having an affair with paulp! yalie filed a divorce to paulp and moved to ottawa with patriotz.

0
0