@jesse. Thanks very much for the discussion, additional idea, and full discussion link about the price/MOI scatter plot. Finding a good correlation function wasn’t trivial!

@jesse#61.

Thanks for posting your work. If I understand correctly this says log(EMOI) gives a crisis severity outcome roughly proportional to the number of standard deviations. [EMOI: short for Enhanced MOI] log(EMOI) definitely squeezes down the dispersion and produces a reasonable detector. I’ll keep this in mind. Thanks.

Related topic. I’ve been looking at your MOI scatter plot. Does that use EMOI? And, what is “half over half”? Axis label says data is 3 months delayed. Is the working theory that price impact takes roughly 3 months to “sink in”? Also, why did you choose percentage price change rather than linear or log change? Did you try those other scales? There are quite a few decisions that went into that scatter plot. If you have a discussion of that work somewhere I’d love to read it.

@VTDF.

If 2013 follows dull 2012 exactly from the current level, MOI on March 31 2014 will be 9.0 rather than this year’s 7.0 (see the chart). Rate of price decline is roughly proportional to MOI, so 2008 doesn’t have to happen for prices to fall even faster than 2012 this year and next.

Any bump in the road can bring a financial crisis to Canada’s fragile debt driven economy and there are dozens of important events on the economic calendar between now and 2014 starting with these on this very Friday:

Statscan Friday April 5, 5:30am PDT:
Employment Change
Trade Balance
Unemployment Rate

“Underwater” is a good description of the crisis in a country where large parts of the territory are below sea level. Ironically, the Netherlands, once a model economy, now faces the kind of real estate crisis that has only affected the United States and Spain until now. Banks in the Netherlands have also pumped billions upon billions in loans into the private and commercial real estate market since the 1990s, without ensuring that borrowers had sufficient collateral. Private homebuyers, for example, could easily find banks to finance more than 100 percent of a property’s price. “You could readily obtain a loan for five times your annual salary,” says Scheepens, “and all that without a cent of equity.” This was only possible because property owners were able to fully deduct mortgage interest from their taxes. Underwater: The Netherlands Falls Prey to… Read more »

Looks like kenney read this blog…

http://www.news1130.com/2013/04/02/immigration-minister-concerned-over-ethnic-enclaves/

“Our citizenship, a coveted global asset”

I admire your patriotism, but really, does anybody in the world give a flying fuck about Canada or the Canadians living in it? I’m afraid you’re a victim of relentless propaganda campaign from governments of all political strips for the last 40 years. Governments love to tell you how lucky you are to be a Canadian so that the tax raping you get for that privilege somehow seams justified.

date new chg sold inv expired Mar28 271 107 139 16635 56 Apr2 382 198 100 16236 681 <– 681 expired listings: Those are 681 listings that will be back real soon if not this very day (382). Expiring the listing doesn’t stop the ongoing financing cost or the neighbouring property’s sale price reduction impact on the price index. Today’s expired speculator listing purchased after early 2012 is a losing trade and bleeding money every day until it is unloaded. 100 sales after a 4 day long weekend: If daily sales average 100 (unlikely) for every working day until end of month, 21 x 100 = 2100 April sales, that will be a 12% decline from March (2395). If tomorrow’s sales are a lot less than 100, it will be even clearer that March is probably the peak sales month… Read more »

“Ethnic groups, a collection of self interest groups, demand immigration policies that benefit themselves and not the collective.”

The entire population, regardless of ethnicity, is made of up self-interest groups; people who own cars vs those who use public transport, married people vs single people, those with children vs those who are childless, the wealthy vs the poor, the young vs the old. The cast their votes based on what issues are important to them, and politicians “appeasing” voters is actually them attempting to appeal to the majority. That’s how democracy works.

““However, at night you can look up at condo buildings and see only a few units with lights”

People might be outside? Or asleep?”

I notice the more newly completed buildings have fewer lights at night than the ones who are say 5+ years old. I guess the owners in those new buildings go out more and sleep more? Perhaps not.