FFFA! April showers, half truths & the slump

Hey! You made it to the end of another week, let’s do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Lowest April sales since 2001
Highlights from the REBGV news release
Realtor Hunger Index
Inventory Graph updated
Down by skid row gets cooler
More Media plants
When snowbirds attack
Weather always slows real estate
Coastal sales/listings 2011-2013

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Landbaron
Guest
Landbaron

I left this at the end of the last thread but thought it was important enough to repeat. This project being cancelled with all the new towers rising in the area raises some questions.

“Does this world class city include the biggest restaurant in Western Canada?

The Salt Building in the OV has been wrapped in banners proclaiming the greatest restaurant on earth (I’m exaggerating) will be open THIS summer.

I have yet to see any work being done and it’s pretty close to summer. Me thinks it’s been scrapped…”

Life is Good
Guest
Life is Good

FFFA is here. Time to irritate VCI bears

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yo27_lLAqdk

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“I have yet to see any work being done and it’s pretty close to summer. Me thinks it’s been scrapped…”

If it is scrapped it is due to the Nimby’s blocking it. There was quite the kerfuffle about this place with OV residents. Imagine after paying about double market rate for a presale you have to put up with a pub within the same village. I thought this village was supposed to be housing only with no other amenities close by. Imaging them trying to put a pub in there. Next they are going to want to add a coffee shop and grocery store.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

Two pubs – there’s already the Tap and Barrel.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Re: More media plants

How does a story like this come about? Does a person just phone up a newspaper reporter and say hey I just realized how much a mortgage broker can save me. Do you want to do a story? Then the reporter says yes that sound super interesting. Can you get me an interview with your mortgage broker? The media has to be involved not duped. This must be so routine the marketing people don’t even bother using a non relative or employee to play the consumer which would be so easy.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

The Washington Whale strikes again:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/03/us-unemployment-rate-april-jobs

His picture in ASCII:

http://cnnmoneytech.tumblr.com/post/49468888972/how-to-turn-bitcoin-code-into-a-ben-bernanke-portrait

Next Friday, May 10 5:30AM Vancouver time is when Statscan releases the April unemployment number for Canada. Will it be another 55000 layoffs like March? If it stays absolutely flat or improves very little that could also be bad since the US is adding jobs like gangbusters in the wake of Washington Whale’s one way makework trade. Canada should get some spillover from the US makework activity. If not, things are pretty bad in Canada.

[FYI, DJIA and crude oil are streaking up the chart right on cue with the jobs number release. Get ready to slam it hard into reverse on the slightest bad news though! LOL.]

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
From today’s Financial Post. Also on Reuters news. Some interesting quotes from Robert Shiller. “Canadian housing: Bursting bubble or gentle landing?” http://business.financialpost.com/2013/05/03/canadian-housing-bursting-bubble-or-gentle-landing/?__lsa=b24d-205e “Yale economist Robert Shiller, one of the few to predict the U.S. housing crash, sees the same thing happening in Canada — just in slow motion.” ““I just plot. I plot the Vancouver Teranet index with my own San Francisco index. It looks the same. Vancouver is no tamer than San Francisco, and San Francisco is one of our bubbliest cities,” said Shiller, who looks at psychology as much as data to draw his pessimistic conclusions.” “But Shiller said the psychology and patriotism of bubbles — the idea that a national can’t spot the problems that an outsider can — are not represented by Canada’s low default rates and a system of mortgage insurance that protects banks from… Read more »
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

you want to compare vancouver to San Fran? ok, here’s the chart:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-San-Francisco-home-value/r_20330/#metric=mt%3D34%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D8%26r%3D20330%26el%3D0

don’t miss the bottom bears, it is going to be short and shallow.

southseacompany says:

“I just plot. I plot the Vancouver Teranet index with my own San Francisco index. It looks the same. Vancouver is no tamer than San Francisco, and San Francisco is one of our bubbliest cities,” said Shiller, who looks at psychology as much as data to draw his pessimistic conclusions.”

bird-man
Guest
bird-man
Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

@southseacompany#7 Says: Shiller: “Maybe we need a sociologist here”

Or a psychiatrist. Hey Bull, get some help and sell before it’s too late.

http://www.problemgambling.ca/EN/ResourcesForProfessionals/Pages/DSMIVCriteriaPathologicalGambling.aspx

Source: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders

patriotz
Member

“you want to compare vancouver to San Fran? ”

City of San Francisco has 1/10 of metro population so it’s not comparable even to City of Vancouver, more like the West Side.

It’s also more atypical then even the West Side by itself, so it’s no indicator of trends in the Bay Area or future trends in Vancouver.

Very Anonymous
Guest
Very Anonymous

@ #5 Re: media.

This is how it’s done. Back in the 90’s a ‘writer’ approached our firm. These guys don’t work directly for the Sun. For a fee, it was $300 buck back then, he’ll work with us to develop and write a ‘story’ about our firm. He then submits to the Sun. If it’s interesting, they print it as news.

Recently, someone else met with us. He could work to promote our firm with connections he has with print and TV. There has to be a ‘story’ it can’t be just anything. If it relates to other current events the better.

So, it appears many of these stories that you read in the financial section of the Sun, about a new firm, or a better way to buy a house, are infomercials once removed.

BC reader
Member
BC reader

Anyone else see our shorting Canadian housing and banks hedge fund mgr on Bloomberg this morning? He sounds just like Ben Rabidoux ( at least before Ben changed his version)

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

@BC reader#13. I don’t watch TV. Thanks for the tip. Here is the clip I found:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/is-canada-s-economy-in-for-a-housing-shock-I4HR1QGoTimK2lKxVnLhpg.html

Crikey
Guest
Crikey

@various
“Maybe we need a sociologist here”
“Or a psychiatrist.”

Everybody has different needs.
Bulls need optometrists and math teachers.
The media, that always bends over and takes whatever the used house salesmen feel like giving them, need proctologists.

Blitzkrieg
Guest
Blitzkrieg

What happened to Vancouver Sun, finally some reality and no WC city posh, luxury, celebrity, investor crap?

“Families who work for low wages face impossible choices — buy clothing or heat the house, feed the children or pay the rent,” Ivanova and Klein write.

“The result can be spiralling debt, constant anxiety and long-term health problems. In many cases, it means the adults in the family are working long hours, often at two or three jobs, just to pay for basic necessities. They have little time to spend with their family, much less to help their children with school work or participate in community activities.”

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/Cayo+Vancouver+family+living+wage+more+than+what+most+earn/8330269/story.html#ixzz2SFWjYRjb

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

“City of San Francisco has 1/10 of metro population so it’s not comparable even to City of Vancouver, more like the West Side.”

if you have a problem with the comparison take it up with MIT Prof Robert Shiller. he is the one who introduced the argument.

patriotz
Member

All Case-Shiller indexes, including the one for San Francisco, are for metros.

#8 which I was replying to linked a Zillow chart of San Fran city.

Troll
Guest
Troll

I love the cherry picking.

“Vancouver is going to crash like the US! Look at this chart with Vancouver compared to a dozen US cities!”
“Well, San Fran didn’t crash much and has rebounded already”
“Um, well, San Fran is not a good comparison because they have different populations”

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Dow, S and P setting records today. Bonds at all time highs.!!!!

More money in the world today. Many parking it in real estate!!

Yet you doomers are comparing rent to purchase metrics. Laughable.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

Troll, it’s different there!

mclovin
Member
mclovin

Feeling pretty darn good about my US investment account these days but what do I know?

I’m just a broke dirt bag renter who is happy to have a place to live.

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

Further to @BC reader#13’s Bloomberg entertainment tip about Canadian banks and housing/commodity bubble risk bet, take a look at Royal Bank June 21, 2013 $50 PUT options. ASK is now 10 cents with no bid! Here is the quote page for the US denominated option.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RY130622P00050000

If Royal Bank’s future starts to look uncertain after the May earnings release or CAD takes a significant tumble, this option could break even or net a few bucks. I would put this bet in the same category as a $10 lottery ticket at this point though. I have it on the screen for entertainment purposes only.

Mr Qwality
Guest
Mr Qwality

“Maybe we need a sociologist here”

an ist of something or other.. preferably with an understanding of the stars…

Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High

@mclovin#22. What is your exit strategy? How will you know to close or fade the trade on US equities? Will the Washington Whale (Bernanke) announce he’s happy with US employment levels before stopping the money presses? Is there plenty of time to EVERYONE to get out? Isn’t an unhedged long bet on the Whale, the same risk as Garth’s oblivious return seeking subscribers? As far as I’ve heard Garth’s followers don’t buy downside coverage or even have stop loss orders.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cau9fTJCsOM

wpDiscuz